> @SouthamObserver said: > So, for its next trick the Conservative party is going to make a lying, serially unfaithful, self-absorbed, bone idle chancer who hangs out with white supremacists and believes in nothing but his own advancement the UK’s PM. And I thought Labour had a death wish!
Honestly SO it is not going to happen. Farage is very good at single issue campaigns but there are so may areas where he has no coherent policy and where what policies he does have would be deeply unpopular.
I am confident TBP will walk the Euros and may even win Peterborough. But there is no way on earth he will ever get more than a handful of MPs in Parliament.
> Usury laws fuck up the financial system worse than rental controls mess with property.
Usury is the charging of excessive interest, so something that the Conservative government here has acted against. Very sensible laws if set with reasonable threshold.
It’s using the usury argument specifically (which is what she has done) which is problematic.
1) fund an individual MP 2) fund an individual party 3) fund an individual cause.
Rules are different for each category, for referendums than elections, and proximity to the election. One interesting thing is that although donations above a certain amount have to be reported, the deadline for reporting them is not necessarily before the election.
If I have got anything wrong, apols, but it was from memory.
This is tripped up by the rules on shadow support - in naming the Brexit party they have caught themselves inside the spending limits
Boris favoured by more than any other Tory leadership contender with having what it takes to be a good PM with voters as a whole you mean and tied with Javid for the lead with Tory supporters?
> So, for its next trick the Conservative party is going to make a lying, serially unfaithful, self-absorbed, bone idle chancer who hangs out with white supremacists and believes in nothing but his own advancement the UK’s PM. And I thought Labour had a death wish!
Honestly SO it is not going to happen. Farage is very good at single issue campaigns but there are so may areas where he has no coherent policy and where what policies he does have would be deeply unpopular.
I am confident TBP will walk the Euros and may even win Peterborough. But there is no way on earth he will ever get more than a handful of MPs in Parliament.
Boris favoured by more than any other Tory leadership contender with having what it takes to be a good PM with voters as a whole you mean and tied with Javid for the lead with Tory supporters?
Has your inbox been inundated with apologies from those laughing at your "Back Boris" instructions?
More likely that in 2024 when he is announcing a GE, everyone will be commenting that they always said Boris was a formidable operator...
For such a modest man, this must be something of an embarrassment. I do hope they don't start mentioning your 12/1 tip that the Tories would score less than 10%, or the 6/1 tip that they would finish 5th in the Euros.
> @Roger said: > > @Charles said: > > > @Charles said: > > > > > Nice job Lib Dems! > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/17/lib-dems-win-council-first-time-give-massive-pay-rise/ > > > > > > > > > > Bet you the extra money gets “donated” to the party by the councillors > > > > > > > > That's the standard play as I understand it > > > > > > > > Personally I think it stinks > > > > It should be illegal > > > > If you want to state fund your parties have the balls to argue for if > > Interesting the trivia people get hooked on when suffering withdrawal symptoms from Jeremy Kyle.
Do try to stay classy Roger.
I mean that expensive education must have been good for something.
> Usury laws fuck up the financial system worse than rental controls mess with property.
Usury is the charging of excessive interest, so something that the Conservative government here has acted against. Very sensible laws if set with reasonable threshold.
It’s using the usury argument specifically (which is what she has done) which is problematic.
That will surely just turn over the bottom end of the loan market to what we might call the informal lenders, the ones who have friends who obviously play baseball?
Much better to support local credit unions, but that’s not bashing evil rich bankers so not as politically effective.
That doesn't look like Betfair Exchange, unless there's some kind of weird skin. Which exchange bookie is that?
Smarkets.. very little liquidity, but if you leave some orders up you can sometimes get a nice fill
I used to think that the bookies on Oddschecker were all the bookies. But googling a few months ago makes me think there are omissions. Oddschecker says that exchange betting includes Betfair Exchange, Smarkets and Matchbook. Are there any others?
Boris favoured by more than any other Tory leadership contender with having what it takes to be a good PM with voters as a whole you mean and tied with Javid for the lead with Tory supporters?
You need to look at the net figures, only Gove does worse.
> @Charles said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > So, for its next trick the Conservative party is going to make a lying, serially unfaithful, self-absorbed, bone idle chancer who hangs out with white supremacists and believes in nothing but his own advancement the UK’s PM. And I thought Labour had a death wish! > > > > Honestly SO it is not going to happen. Farage is very good at single issue campaigns but there are so may areas where he has no coherent policy and where what policies he does have would be deeply unpopular. > > > > I am confident TBP will walk the Euros and may even win Peterborough. But there is no way on earth he will ever get more than a handful of MPs in Parliament. > > I think he’s talking about BoJo...
LOL So he is. Funny that the same description can apply to both clowns.
That doesn't look like Betfair Exchange, unless there's some kind of weird skin. Which exchange bookie is that?
Smarkets.. very little liquidity, but if you leave some orders up you can sometimes get a nice fill
I used to think that the bookies on Oddschecker were all the bookies. But googling a few months ago makes me think there are omissions. Oddschecker says that exchange betting includes Betfair Exchange, Smarkets and Matchbook. Are there any others?
There are hundreds of white label bookies all over the place, but I think the only exchange you've not mentioned is Betdaq
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > Tory MPs (and members) might want to look at this. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545 > > > > > > Boris favoured by more than any other Tory leadership contender with having what it takes to be a good PM with voters as a whole you mean and tied with Javid for the lead with Tory supporters? > > You need to look at the net figures, only Gove does worse.
Net figures are irrelevant if people who hate you will never vote for your party anyway as Trump and Corbyn showed, it is getting people to actually vote for you that counts.
Comres at the weekend had it Labour 27%, Brexit Party 20%, Tories 19% with Boris as Tory leader though it was Labour 27%, Tories 26% Brexit Party 10%. So Boris slashed the Labour lead from 8% to 1% and halved the Brexit Party total
That doesn't look like Betfair Exchange, unless there's some kind of weird skin. Which exchange bookie is that?
Smarkets.. very little liquidity, but if you leave some orders up you can sometimes get a nice fill
I used to think that the bookies on Oddschecker were all the bookies. But googling a few months ago makes me think there are omissions. Oddschecker says that exchange betting includes Betfair Exchange, Smarkets and Matchbook. Are there any others?
There are hundreds of white label bookies all over the place, but I think the only exchange you've not mentioned is Betdaq
Net figures are irrelevant if people who hate you will never vote for your party anyway as Trump and Corbyn showed, it is getting people to actually vote for you that counts.
Comres at the weekend had it Labour 27%, Brexit Party 20%, Tories 19% with Boris as Tory leader though it was Labour 27%, Tories 26% Brexit Party 10%. So Boris slashed the Labour lead from 8% to 1% and halved the Brexit Party total
The second graphic is Conservative supporters though to be fair, and only Gove is worse there too.
Although the members are who count I guess. I reckon polling of party members is super accurate and useful for party leader betting. Incomparable with the nonsense of long term hypothetical elections, because the problems with getting balanced sample aren't there
> @isam said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > Tory MPs (and members) might want to look at this. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545 > > > > > > Boris favoured by more than any other Tory leadership contender with having what it takes to be a good PM with voters as a whole you mean and tied with Javid for the lead with Tory supporters? > > Has your inbox been inundated with apologies from those laughing at your "Back Boris" instructions? > > More likely that in 2024 when he is announcing a GE, everyone will be commenting that they always said Boris was a formidable operator...
BigG to be fair did say I was correct to back Boris
> @HYUFD said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > Tory MPs (and members) might want to look at this. > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545 > > > > > > > > > > > > Boris favoured by more than any other Tory leadership contender with having what it takes to be a good PM with voters as a whole you mean and tied with Javid for the lead with Tory supporters? > > > > You need to look at the net figures, only Gove does worse. > > Net figures are irrelevant if people who hate you will never vote for your party anyway as Trump and Corbyn showed, it is getting people to actually vote for you that counts. > > Comres at the weekend had it Labour 27%, Brexit Party 20%, Tories 19% with Boris as Tory leader though it was Labour 27%, Tories 26% Brexit Party 10%. So Boris slashed the Labour lead from 8% to 1% and halved the Brexit Party total > > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
The idea that there are 64% of voters that hate the Tories and would never vote for them is not a reflection of reality. I would imagine at least two thirds of voters end up voting for both the Tories and Labour during their lifetimes, so a party being currently unpopular is not as big a challenge as it looks.
Against the current alternatives any sensible leader who had the party behind them could hit 40%+ quickly. Instead they are looking to start with a ceiling of 36% and hope the other guy is even worse - which incredibly he might be.
Mr. Meeks, an interesting finding, that 8 out of 9 have such an identity whereas only 6 out of 9 have a party identity.
Think that adds credence to my view that the division will be a prolonged one.
As you may know, this has been my longstanding belief. It's a part of my thesis that the referendum result was an inflexion point leading to Britain's longterm decline.
Goodness, it led to something that started in 1850. Who knew the leave vote could transcend time itself?
Comments
> I see TSE has been retweeted from high places.
>
> https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1129171776192303105?s=19
Agh I hate this. It's so disingenuous. Oh well, politicians will behave like politicians, I suppose.
> I see TSE has been retweeted from high places.
>
> Tim Farron's retweeted him as well.
>
> Layla Moran as well.
>
> https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1129283466531676160
>
>
>
> It feels like every Lib Dem on twitter has retweeted my original tweet.
And as the LibDems soar away, they stay, ur, 19% behind the Brexit Party......
> So, for its next trick the Conservative party is going to make a lying, serially unfaithful, self-absorbed, bone idle chancer who hangs out with white supremacists and believes in nothing but his own advancement the UK’s PM. And I thought Labour had a death wish!
Honestly SO it is not going to happen. Farage is very good at single issue campaigns but there are so may areas where he has no coherent policy and where what policies he does have would be deeply unpopular.
I am confident TBP will walk the Euros and may even win Peterborough. But there is no way on earth he will ever get more than a handful of MPs in Parliament.
> Boris now at 2.3 on BF
>
> LAY THE FAVOURITE!!!
I've laid him and he's shortened.
> Tory MPs (and members) might want to look at this.
>
> https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545
Boris favoured by more than any other Tory leadership contender with having what it takes to be a good PM with voters as a whole you mean and tied with Javid for the lead with Tory supporters?
>
> Agh I hate this. It's so disingenuous. Oh well, politicians will behave like politicians, I suppose.
To be fair I think he was satirising what Labour had been saying for the last week.
More likely that in 2024 when he is announcing a GE, everyone will be commenting that they always said Boris was a formidable operator...
> I see TSE has been retweeted from high places.
>
> Tim Farron's retweeted him as well.
>
> Layla Moran as well.
>
> https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1129283466531676160
>
>
>
> It feels like every Lib Dem on twitter has retweeted my original tweet.
For such a modest man, this must be something of an embarrassment. I do hope they don't start mentioning your 12/1 tip that the Tories would score less than 10%, or the 6/1 tip that they would finish 5th in the Euros.
That would be very difficult to cope with.
> > @Charles said:
> > > @Charles said:
> >
> > > Nice job Lib Dems!
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/17/lib-dems-win-council-first-time-give-massive-pay-rise/
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Bet you the extra money gets “donated” to the party by the councillors
> >
> >
> >
> > That's the standard play as I understand it
> >
> >
> >
> > Personally I think it stinks
> >
> > It should be illegal
> >
> > If you want to state fund your parties have the balls to argue for if
>
> Interesting the trivia people get hooked on when suffering withdrawal symptoms from Jeremy Kyle.
Do try to stay classy Roger.
I mean that expensive education must have been good for something.
Much better to support local credit unions, but that’s not bashing evil rich bankers so not as politically effective.
Good question
> > @SouthamObserver said:
>
> > So, for its next trick the Conservative party is going to make a lying, serially unfaithful, self-absorbed, bone idle chancer who hangs out with white supremacists and believes in nothing but his own advancement the UK’s PM. And I thought Labour had a death wish!
>
>
>
> Honestly SO it is not going to happen. Farage is very good at single issue campaigns but there are so may areas where he has no coherent policy and where what policies he does have would be deeply unpopular.
>
>
>
> I am confident TBP will walk the Euros and may even win Peterborough. But there is no way on earth he will ever get more than a handful of MPs in Parliament.
>
> I think he’s talking about BoJo...
LOL So he is. Funny that the same description can apply to both clowns.
Apologies SO.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Tory MPs (and members) might want to look at this.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545
>
>
>
>
>
> Boris favoured by more than any other Tory leadership contender with having what it takes to be a good PM with voters as a whole you mean and tied with Javid for the lead with Tory supporters?
>
> You need to look at the net figures, only Gove does worse.
Net figures are irrelevant if people who hate you will never vote for your party anyway as Trump and Corbyn showed, it is getting people to actually vote for you that counts.
Comres at the weekend had it Labour 27%, Brexit Party 20%, Tories 19% with Boris as Tory leader though it was Labour 27%, Tories 26% Brexit Party 10%. So Boris slashed the Labour lead from 8% to 1% and halved the Brexit Party total
https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
Although the members are who count I guess. I reckon polling of party members is super accurate and useful for party leader betting. Incomparable with the nonsense of long term hypothetical elections, because the problems with getting balanced sample aren't there
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Tory MPs (and members) might want to look at this.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545
>
>
>
>
>
> Boris favoured by more than any other Tory leadership contender with having what it takes to be a good PM with voters as a whole you mean and tied with Javid for the lead with Tory supporters?
>
> Has your inbox been inundated with apologies from those laughing at your "Back Boris" instructions?
>
> More likely that in 2024 when he is announcing a GE, everyone will be commenting that they always said Boris was a formidable operator...
BigG to be fair did say I was correct to back Boris
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> >
> > > Tory MPs (and members) might want to look at this.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Boris favoured by more than any other Tory leadership contender with having what it takes to be a good PM with voters as a whole you mean and tied with Javid for the lead with Tory supporters?
> >
> > You need to look at the net figures, only Gove does worse.
>
> Net figures are irrelevant if people who hate you will never vote for your party anyway as Trump and Corbyn showed, it is getting people to actually vote for you that counts.
>
> Comres at the weekend had it Labour 27%, Brexit Party 20%, Tories 19% with Boris as Tory leader though it was Labour 27%, Tories 26% Brexit Party 10%. So Boris slashed the Labour lead from 8% to 1% and halved the Brexit Party total
>
> https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
The idea that there are 64% of voters that hate the Tories and would never vote for them is not a reflection of reality. I would imagine at least two thirds of voters end up voting for both the Tories and Labour during their lifetimes, so a party being currently unpopular is not as big a challenge as it looks.
Against the current alternatives any sensible leader who had the party behind them could hit 40%+ quickly. Instead they are looking to start with a ceiling of 36% and hope the other guy is even worse - which incredibly he might be.