> @TGOHF said: > So the talks are dead. > > Which one of the parties is ready to set out a bold vision of how we can move forward from here rather than spout excuses and platitudes ? > >
May clearly cannot do this so it is a golden opportunity for Corbyn. But I can't say I'm overflowing with optimism that he will rise to the challenge.
He's not there yet but 'parliamentary sovereignty' offers a route for Farage to implement a Brexit plan even if the majority of the population are in favour of remain.
> He certainly is. There is, at the risk of invoking Godwin’s Law, more than a hint of the Fuehrerprincip about him, with all this talk of betrayal and Will of the People stuff, and a party built purely around him with no checks and balances with him being funded personally by a man under investigation by the NCA.
Yep. You invoked Godwin.
And yet are any of the facts I have set down about him (setting aside the interpretation) untrue:-
1. He does talk about betrayal. 2. He does talk about the Will of the People. 3. The party is purely a personal vehicle around him. 4. There are no checks and balances within its structure. 5. He has been personally funded by Arron Banks. 6. Arron Banks is under investigation by the NCA.
You may not like the message or the messenger. But facts are facts. Ignore them at your peril.
If the goverment whips against a second referendum there aren't enough votes to do it, so there's no point in helping the government pass earlier stages in the hope of amending it without their agreement.
> @rottenborough said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1129332991610818560 > > He is becoming messianic. Dangerous. > > The main parties were warned repeatedly that this would happen. I don't see how the genie is put back now. UK has a Nationalist Populist party and it will win seats. Whether it can sweep aside the entire political system is another question. > > No doubt Bannon is providing plenty of advice to Nigel.
With votes split across many parties it is possible for a majority to be won on less than 30% vote share. This is why we need a better voting system than FPTP.
> Am I the only one who finds Goodwin deeply annoying? He is academia's version of Han Dodges, he writes the same thing over and over again and gets some idiot to pay him for it.
I cant help but feel you find him annoying because his analysis does not match your political views. Personally i find his analysis both interesting and at times compelling. But I also recognise that is because his conclusions are often more in line with my own political views
His recent book is v good (with Eatwell) and more established politicians should be reading it to understand where this is coming from. I'd say it is a little complacent over how easily Nat Populism can be tipped over into out-right hard far right politics of the nasty sort, but otherwise well worth reading.
Seems to me that Lab and Tories are standing on a burning platform and have no idea they are.
He is a very annoying mix of insightfulness and glib saloon bar folk wisdom. He has to be read but he makes some mistakes that are unworthy of a serious academic.
> Am I the only one who finds Goodwin deeply annoying? He is academia's version of Han Dodges, he writes the same thing over and over again and gets some idiot to pay him for it.
I cant help but feel you find him annoying because his analysis does not match your political views. Personally i find his analysis both interesting and at times compelling. But I also recognise that is because his conclusions are often more in line with my own political views
His recent book is v good (with Eatwell) and more established politicians should be reading it to understand where this is coming from. I'd say it is a little complacent over how easily Nat Populism can be tipped over into out-right hard far right politics of the nasty sort.
@isam has a good point: I guess the possible reason for preferring the LDs is that the current momentum is mostly their way (and in a contest like this, momentum clearly matters, as the vote is all about signalling). It's hard to see the Brexit Party picking up many more votes as the Leave Conservatives have already been pretty fully squeezed, but the LDs can pick up both from Labour and the other Remain parties, especially Change UK who are looking dead on arrival.
FWIW, I suspect both bets are value and Labour are far too short at 1/2.
Again, it's not the numbers that count, it's where they are and whether they would switch to a new, more hardline pro-Brexiteer Tory leader. Losing 100K votes in inner London doesn't matter, losing 100K votes in Leave marginals in the North and Midlands does
Again, it's not the numbers that count, it's where they are and whether they would switch to a new, more hardline pro-Brexiteer Tory leader. Losing 100K votes in inner London doesn't matter, losing 100K votes in Leave marginals in the North and Midlands does
The Tories are in single figures for the Euros and low 20s for Westminster. They might have lost both.
> @rottenborough said: > Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today. > > The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife. > > Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps?
The usual reason is to send two leaflets to the same house (postage via Royal Mail is free for Generals & EU elections: either a free addressed leaflet to every elector, or a free unaddressed leaflet to every household).
It's possible there may be some targeting involved in deciding which of you gets which leaflet, but it's probably just as likely that they just ended up sorted that way in the spreadsheet...
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1129332991610818560 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > He is becoming messianic. Dangerous. > > > > > > > > > He certainly is. There is, at the risk of invoking Godwin’s Law, more than a hint of the Fuehrerprincip about him, with all this talk of betrayal and Will of the People stuff, and a party built purely around him with no checks and balances with him being funded personally by a man under investigation by the NCA. > > > > Yep. You invoked Godwin. > > And yet are any of the facts I have set down about him (setting aside the interpretation) untrue:- > > 1. He does talk about betrayal. > 2. He does talk about the Will of the People. > 3. The party is purely a personal vehicle around him. > 4. There are no checks and balances within its structure. > 5. He has been personally funded by Arron Banks. > 6. Arron Banks is under investigation by the NCA. > > You may not like the message or the messenger. But facts are facts. Ignore them at your peril.
But none of those facts in any way justify comparisons with Hitler. All of the important factors that drove his rise to power and his actions as he made that rise including complete economic collapse, a series of recent armed revolts and an extremist ideology underpinning his party are completely absent today. Making such comparisons even in passing is just idiotic scaremongering.
If the LDs or Brexit Party win London as Yougov suggests today it means neither the Tories nor Labour will win any region of GB as the Brexit Party will win every other region of England and Wales and the SNP will win Scotland.
That would be an extraordinary result and very damaging for both May and Corbyn
> Am I the only one who finds Goodwin deeply annoying? He is academia's version of Han Dodges, he writes the same thing over and over again and gets some idiot to pay him for it.
I cant help but feel you find him annoying because his analysis does not match your political views. Personally i find his analysis both interesting and at times compelling. But I also recognise that is because his conclusions are often more in line with my own political views
He is a very good analyst. And I have quoted his "three tribes" classification many times. But he is also an advocate, and frequently his advocacy intrudes upon his analysis. This offers his work a whiny tone that can make reading him a chore. One has to go thru his writings and work out which of the bits are true, which are the bits that he advocates and are also true, and which are the bits that he advocates and would like to be true but are not in evidence.
Parenthetically, his co-authored book about National Populism is in the library: I leafed thru it the other week. When I've gone thru my existing pile, I'll grab a copy and have a look.
> @rottenborough said: > Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today. > > The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife. > > Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps?
Have not had a LD leaflet yet, had them from the Tories, Labour, the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats though
The change leaflet is no good. Optimistically, they ask us to put the leaflet in the window. It's a union flag / EU flag fade-across, with their logo in the bottom right. It's not going in my window.
> @HYUFD said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today. > > > > The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife. > > > > Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps? > > Have not had a LD leaflet yet, had them from the Tories, Labour, the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats though
> @logical_song said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today. > > > > > > The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife. > > > > > > Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps? > > > > Have not had a LD leaflet yet, had them from the Tories, Labour, the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats though > > I've had LibDem, Labour and Brexit
I've *only* had a Brexit party leaflet. My wife hasn't had one from anyone. (I'm first-named on the electoral roll, which might make a difference).
> @ah009 said: > LEAFLET SCORE, UPDATED: > Green 2 > Brexit 1 > Change 1 > > The change leaflet is no good. Optimistically, they ask us to put the leaflet in the window. It's a union flag / EU flag fade-across, with their logo in the bottom right. It's not going in my window.
Interesting that I haven't yet seen a Change poster in Totnes.
> @david_herdson said: > > @logical_song said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today. > > > > > > > > The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife. > > > > > > > > Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps? > > > > > > Have not had a LD leaflet yet, had them from the Tories, Labour, the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats though > > > > I've had LibDem, Labour and Brexit > > I've *only* had a Brexit party leaflet. My wife hasn't had one from anyone. (I'm first-named on the electoral roll, which might make a difference).
Ah, that would explain why my daughter received the only two leaflets sent to our house.
If I see one more incredibly wealthy whiny [redacted][redacted] metropolitan elite Leaver whining about how their [rudeword][rudeword] views are not universally accepted by the hostesses of their metropolitan soirees, I will go back in time and kill their [redacted] grandparents. Christ, the commentariat in this country are spoilt beyond belief.
> @Cyclefree said: > And yet are any of the facts I have set down about him (setting aside the interpretation) untrue:- > > 1. He does talk about betrayal. > 2. He does talk about the Will of the People. > 3. The party is purely a personal vehicle around him. > 4. There are no checks and balances within its structure. > 5. He has been personally funded by Arron Banks. > 6. Arron Banks is under investigation by the NCA. > > You may not like the message or the messenger. But facts are facts. Ignore them at your peril.
If they decide to create checks and balances within the <strikethrough>buiness</strikethrough> party, they can call it The 1933 Committee.
> @SquareRoot said: > > @_Anazina_ said: > > If Jezza is to be believed, the Government remains keen on importing chlorinated chicken and (presumably) a whole load of other low-standard foodstuffs from the United States. Can anyone explain why they think this is a good idea? > > > > "If Jezza is to be believed" > > > > *snort* > > > > Well I recognise that it's a stretch, but it might be true. Who knows? > > I wouldn't trust Corbyn if he told me it was 12.47pm. I'd check my watch first... i > I am an hr ahead of gmt btw...
More to the point, do you trust the Secretary of State for Trade? It's what he said - he apparently believes (entirely incorrectly) that WTO does not allow us to set even non-discriminatory standards..
As has been said, the problem is not the chlorine - it's the infections that intensive breeding assist which the chlorine is trying too kill off.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @_Anazina_ said: > > Of course it might boost Labour support among Remain voters..... > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129300905030037504 > > > > > > > > > > Am I the only one who finds Goodwin deeply annoying? He is academia's version of Han Dodges, he writes the same thing over and over again and gets some idiot to pay him for it. > > I cant help but feel you find him annoying because his analysis does not match your political views. Personally i find his analysis both interesting and at times compelling. But I also recognise that is because his conclusions are often more in line with my own political views <
+++++
He can be very repetitive, and he is reminiscent of Dan Hodges in that respect, But then he is reminiscent of almost any political commentator on Twitter, you can only have so many opinions, so your Twitter feed is bound to be various different ways of saying the same things. The art is to give the repeated thought a slightly different twist each time.
More importantly, perhaps, Goodwin is right about that PPB, for BXP. It is smooth, poignant, powerful, clever. Way ahead of anything the others are doing.
It looks like BXP have recruited expert pro scriptwriters, directors, producers, to achieve bewilderingly good social media. They remind me, oddly, of ISIS in that respect.
I hereby apologise to any BXP-ers for the analogy.
It looks like BXP have recruited expert pro scriptwriters, directors, producers, to achieve bewilderingly good social media. They remind me, oddly, of ISIS in that respect.
I hereby apologise to any BXP-ers for the analogy.
I suppose they might see it as a welcome change from the constant Nazi analogies.
Opposition to leaving the EU even in a ultra-mild Boles form seems to be developing along the lines of "We can't do that because it's giving ground to the fascist Farage". Any sort of economic, or even rational argument for leaving or remaining rapidly sailing out of view.
ISIS are on the phone. They were offended about your comparison to BXP and want an apology too. They said something about "there's extreme and then there's extreme..." but the phone line was unclear...
You are not feeding it, you are depriving it of its food source.
As soon as we voted Leave in 2016 UKIP collapsed as it was no longer needed, MPs refusal to implement the Leave vote has led to the Brexit Party and Farage revival
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @Carolus_Rex said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1129352205826449409 > > > > > > > > > > > > twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1129348649383866369 > > > > I've seen more cheerful expressions at funerals. > > Nobody wants to be filmed with the corpse.....
It is incredibly that a politician has managed to rise to the highest public office while been so piss poor with the media and public that the handlers can't risk letting their boss loose among them.
Gordon Brown was bad, but May takes it to another level.
But none of those facts in any way justify comparisons with Hitler. All of the important factors that drove his rise to power and his actions as he made that rise including complete economic collapse, a series of recent armed revolts and an extremist ideology underpinning his party are completely absent today. Making such comparisons even in passing is just idiotic scaremongering.
I said that there was a hint of the Fuehrerprincip about the way Farage operates. And I stand by that, based on those facts. That does not mean that I think he is just like Hitler or that what is happening is exactly like the rise of Hitler or Mussolini.
But there are some worrying echoes which we should pay more careful attention to.
Other echoes:-
There has been a very serious financial crisis, the effects of which have been very long-standing and painful for some people. That in part is one reason why once fringe parties have been able to capture voters’ attention and support.
There have been people on the fringes willing to contemplate violence (and in some cases have used it). You will be well aware of the security services’ concerns about the threat from far right extremists. There is also some evidence that some of these groups and people are supporting Farage and his party, even though he says he does not want their support. I am a tad cynical. It strikes me as about as sincere as when Corbyn says that anti-semites don’t speak in his name but seems otherwise baffled as to why they are attracted to a party he leads. With no structures within the Brexit Party we have absolutely no transparency whether Farage’s words are accompanied by any action.
Farage himself has talked about taking up his rifle. Maybe it was a joke.
Farage has on more than one occasion peddled anti-Semitic tropes. When politicians are happy to do this it is a sign of a growth of a fundamentally illiberal political culture. That bodes very badly for our liberal democracy.
Does he have an extremist ideology? Who knows? Rather contemptuously he refuses to let us know what his party’s policies are. We must just believe in him. This is not the mark of a man who really believes in democracy and scrutiny. IMO.
History rarely repeats itself exactly. But it is complacent not to be concerned about some worrying trends in political life today, which do - however faintly - echo past times when a liberal democratic order and culture was similarly under strain.
> @HYUFD said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1129299816121548800?s=20 > > > > I'm becoming increasingly weary with people who claim the only way to stop a monster is to feed it. That tactic has never, ever worked. > > You are not feeding it, you are depriving it of its food source. > > As soon as we voted Leave in 2016 UKIP collapsed as it was no longer needed, MPs refusal to implement the Leave vote has led to the Brexit Party and Farage revival
That's not quite true. The polling for UKIP didn't collapse until the 2017 election. Certainly it dropped off after the referendum but then that could be expected of any party that lost its foremost voice and then went through the leadership shenanigans that UKIP endured that year.
> @Byronic said: > > More importantly, perhaps, Goodwin is right about that PPB, for BXP. It is smooth, poignant, powerful, clever. Way ahead of anything the others are doing. > -------
The thing that's so effective about that broadcast is that its target audience isn't just the obvious one of disenchanted Labour Leave voters, but also those who are not in that category at all but want to identify with the nostalgic vision it presents (and who loved to hate Blair and Brown). The kind of conservatives who are quick to criticise virtue signalling but actually engage in it constantly.
> @Pulpstar said: > Opposition to leaving the EU even in a ultra-mild Boles form seems to be developing along the lines of "We can't do that because it's giving ground to the fascist Farage". > Any sort of economic, or even rational argument for leaving or remaining rapidly sailing out of view.
Suppose we leave to a Norway-style arrangement, giving up a say on the rules, and Farage and his fellow travellers continue to bang on about Europe. What would be the point?
If Leavers are unwilling to accept a compromise then Remainers will refuse to do so too.
> @david_herdson said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @ah009 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1129299816121548800?s=20 > > > > > > I'm becoming increasingly weary with people who claim the only way to stop a monster is to feed it. That tactic has never, ever worked. > > > > You are not feeding it, you are depriving it of its food source. > > > > As soon as we voted Leave in 2016 UKIP collapsed as it was no longer needed, MPs refusal to implement the Leave vote has led to the Brexit Party and Farage revival > > That's not quite true. The polling for UKIP didn't collapse until the 2017 election. Certainly it dropped off after the referendum but then that could be expected of any party that lost its foremost voice and then went through the leadership shenanigans that UKIP endured that year.
However, the main point is right: had Brexit been delivered on the WA terms by 29/3/19, the Brexit party would never have become a thing and UKIP would be irrelevant. I do wonder if we've crossed a Rubicon since though.
> @Cyclefree said: > > There have been people on the fringes willing to contemplate violence (and in some cases have used it). You will be well aware of the security services’ concerns about the threat from far right extremists. There is also some evidence that some of these groups and people are supporting Farage and his party, even though he says he does not want their support. I am a tad cynical. It strikes me as about as sincere as when Corbyn says that anti-semites don’t speak in his name but seems otherwise baffled as to why they are attracted to a party he leads. With no structures within the Brexit Party we have absolutely no transparency whether Farage’s words are accompanied by any action. > -------
Richard himself has spoken about how Brexit not happening would cause violence and civil unrest.
> @HYUFD said: > As soon as we voted Leave in 2016 UKIP collapsed as it was no longer needed, MPs refusal to implement the Leave vote has led to the Brexit Party and Farage revival
As soon as the virus entered the host cell, its desiccated husk washed away in the bloodstream.
Yet here we are some time later and there's 100,000 virus cells. Where might they have come from?
> @williamglenn said: > > @Byronic said: > > > > More importantly, perhaps, Goodwin is right about that PPB, for BXP. It is smooth, poignant, powerful, clever. Way ahead of anything the others are doing. > > > ------- > > The thing that's so effective about that broadcast is that its target audience isn't just the obvious one of disenchanted Labour Leave voters, but also those who are not in that category at all but want to identify with the nostalgic vision it presents (and who loved to hate Blair and Brown). The kind of conservatives who are quick to criticise virtue signalling but actually engage in it constantly.
I think it would be better classified as those people whose lives were vastly improved under Thatcher's free market expansion, but originally come from quite humble roots. All those people who worked hard, bought their council houses, did them up, moved up the ladder, gave their kids a better life etc etc etc.
What on earth possessed us all to think she'd be an OK prime minister? She is so bad, so very very very bad, wooden, stubborn, narrow-minded, clueless and awkward, I now believe she'd have been a pretty bad PM even if she hadn't had the mess of Brexit to "fix". As it is, she will go down as one of the worst in British history.
@isam, I've attempted to answer your poll question on the previous thread.
Thanks. It was you who pointed out that YouGov did something to downweight the politically engaged after I wrote a blog on the subject. It should really have pointed us in the direction of an epic fail by Theresa May at the last GE, but unfortunately not 😔
> @rottenborough said: > Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today. > > The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife. > > Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps?
Nope, almost certainly done by alphabetic sequence of names.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @david_herdson said: > > > @logical_song said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today. > > > > > > > > > > The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife. > > > > > > > > > > Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps? > > > > > > > > Have not had a LD leaflet yet, had them from the Tories, Labour, the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats though > > > > > > I've had LibDem, Labour and Brexit > > > > I've *only* had a Brexit party leaflet. My wife hasn't had one from anyone. (I'm first-named on the electoral roll, which might make a difference). > > Ah, that would explain why my daughter received the only two leaflets sent to our house.
My wife had a personally addressed LD leaflet... as previously mentioned, a 'nice letter from Vince Cable' ..... about a week ago. Mine arrived today. We've also had Labour, English "Democrats", Green (today) and Brexit. None of them personalised. Is Rennard back in town? Nothing yet from the Tories. How many people vote by post nowadays, and will have already done so.
Discussion with financial advisor yesterday; he wants to go with the Referendum or back to the Common Market. Beginning to question his judgement, although it's been OK so far.
FPT and a response to my comments on Guildford from @kjh;
Are you local to Guildford Stodge?
Yes the Green supported the Independents and the Tories voted 5 for the LD and 3 abstained.
Although I am a liberal I am not happy with this. I have no inside knowledge as to what happened in the discussions so it may have been inevitable, but the result of the election was clearly against the shenanigans of the Conservative Executive, so it is not good to have another established party taking control, particularly with the support of the previous Conservative leader of the council. I think the LDs should have done a deal with the Indies and if they couldn't manage that then let the Indies take the council.
Not local but work there and know quite a few people in and around Guildford politics and the Council. The result two weeks ago came as no surprise and I flagged on here back in the spring how organised the two anti-local plan groups, R4GV and GGG were. Both groups have plenty of supporters and are well funded with strong social media presence.
My understanding is the former Conservative council leader offered his Party's support as kingmaker to BOTH the LDs and the R4GV/GGG group but both refused. The Council's endorsement of the Local Plan just before the election was the political equivalent of signing their own death warrant but I don't think anyone saw how the national tide would sweep the local Conservatives away with it (they went from having 32 to just 9).
I share your concern but the two salient facts are 1) the Conservatives, defeated though they were, were left holding the balance of power and 2) Councillor Reeves had publicly stated she would not go into a formal coalition with R4GV.
I find the fact the Conservative Group split so publicly astonishing - is this a shape of things to come as the Party implodes and we see perhaps defections to TBP? Had they abstained, Councillor Bigmore would have won but for whatever reason, the group split.
> @Byronic said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @_Anazina_ said: > > > Of course it might boost Labour support among Remain voters..... > > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129300905030037504 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Am I the only one who finds Goodwin deeply annoying? He is academia's version of Han Dodges, he writes the same thing over and over again and gets some idiot to pay him for it. > > > > I cant help but feel you find him annoying because his analysis does not match your political views. Personally i find his analysis both interesting and at times compelling. But I also recognise that is because his conclusions are often more in line with my own political views < > > +++++ > > He can be very repetitive, and he is reminiscent of Dan Hodges in that respect, But then he is reminiscent of almost any political commentator on Twitter, you can only have so many opinions, so your Twitter feed is bound to be various different ways of saying the same things. The art is to give the repeated thought a slightly different twist each time. > > More importantly, perhaps, Goodwin is right about that PPB, for BXP. It is smooth, poignant, powerful, clever. Way ahead of anything the others are doing. > > It looks like BXP have recruited expert pro scriptwriters, directors, producers, to achieve bewilderingly good social media. They remind me, oddly, of ISIS in that respect. > > I hereby apologise to any BXP-ers for the analogy. > >
Well last night on here some were suggesting the rise of the Brexit party was analagous to Germany in 1932-33 - so the ISIS comparison is probably quite mild by comparison!
Just the rise of angry middle England (and Wales) who want the Brexit they believe they voted for delivered.
Farage and Widdecombe - not really Adolf and Eva are they!
> There have been people on the fringes willing to contemplate violence (and in some cases have used it). You will be well aware of the security services’ concerns about the threat from far right extremists. There is also some evidence that some of these groups and people are supporting Farage and his party, even though he says he does not want their support. I am a tad cynical. It strikes me as about as sincere as when Corbyn says that anti-semites don’t speak in his name but seems otherwise baffled as to why they are attracted to a party he leads. With no structures within the Brexit Party we have absolutely no transparency whether Farage’s words are accompanied by any action.
>
-------
Richard himself has spoken about how Brexit not happening would cause violence and civil unrest.
Apparently the anger of Brexiteers must be appeased. But the anger of Remainers must be ignored.
How on earth Brexiteers think this will create a consensus and allow the country to “move on” is never explained.
Gavin Esler must be really chuffed that he left a lucrative TV career to join the thrusting, world-changing young CUKs, And Chuka Umunna must be delighted that his political career has taken him to cusp of actually leading the CUKS.
I mean, you can see it in their faces. The joy at what is unfolding.
> > > Am I the only one who finds Goodwin deeply annoying? He is academia's version of Han Dodges, he writes the same thing over and over again and gets some idiot to pay him for it.
> >
> > I cant help but feel you find him annoying because his analysis does not match your political views. Personally i find his analysis both interesting and at times compelling. But I also recognise that is because his conclusions are often more in line with my own political views <
>
> +++++
>
> He can be very repetitive, and he is reminiscent of Dan Hodges in that respect, But then he is reminiscent of almost any political commentator on Twitter, you can only have so many opinions, so your Twitter feed is bound to be various different ways of saying the same things. The art is to give the repeated thought a slightly different twist each time.
>
> More importantly, perhaps, Goodwin is right about that PPB, for BXP. It is smooth, poignant, powerful, clever. Way ahead of anything the others are doing.
>
> It looks like BXP have recruited expert pro scriptwriters, directors, producers, to achieve bewilderingly good social media. They remind me, oddly, of ISIS in that respect.
>
> I hereby apologise to any BXP-ers for the analogy.
>
>
Well last night on here some were suggesting the rise of the Brexit party was analagous to Germany in 1932-33 - so the ISIS comparison is probably quite mild by comparison!
Just the rise of angry middle England (and Wales) who want the Brexit they believe they voted for delivered.
Farage and Widdecombe - not really Adolf and Eva are they!
Perhaps you could point me to statements by those in the Leave campaign where they said we would leave without any sort of a deal at all. In your own time ......
Hitchens was fantastic on today’s show. The lady next to him, a feminist who has written a book that sounds quite interesting, Caroline Criado Perez, had tweeted that it would be a car crash having to appear with him, yet they seemed to agree on almost everything.
Apparently the anger of Brexiteers must be appeased. But the anger of Remainers must be ignored.
How on earth Brexiteers think this will create a consensus and allow the country to “move on” is never explained.
The anger of the Brexiteers was appeased by giving them a referendum. It’s been reignited by the non implementation of the result.
Why would Remainers be angry? They lost a referendum three years ago, but we are still in the EU. They should be ecstatic, how much better could it have gone for them?
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > I think it would be better classified as those people whose lives were vastly improved under Thatcher's free market expansion, but originally come from quite humble roots. All those people who worked hard, bought their council houses, did them up, moved up the ladder, gave their kids a better life etc etc etc. > ---------
And yet that broadcast is basically saying that the Thatcher revolution was wrong, by jumping straight from 70s Labour to 90s New Labour and comparing them unfavourably. It's a very beguiling message.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > Mark Wood is bowling incredibly quickly this morning...the only problem is the ball is going to the boundary at a similar rate.
63-0 off 10 overs isn't too bad for the bowling side these days.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > > > But none of those facts in any way justify comparisons with Hitler. All of the important factors that drove his rise to power and his actions as he made that rise including complete economic collapse, a series of recent armed revolts and an extremist ideology underpinning his party are completely absent today. Making such comparisons even in passing is just idiotic scaremongering. > > I said that there was a hint of the Fuehrerprincip about the way Farage operates. And I stand by that, based on those facts. That does not mean that I think he is just like Hitler or that what is happening is exactly like the rise of Hitler or Mussolini. >
> > Farage himself has talked about taking up his rifle. Maybe it was a joke. > > Farage has on more than one occasion peddled anti-Semitic tropes. When politicians are happy to do this it is a sign of a growth of a fundamentally illiberal political culture. That bodes very badly for our liberal democracy. > > Does he have an extremist ideology? Who knows? Rather contemptuously he refuses to let us know what his party’s policies are. We must just believe in him. This is not the mark of a man who really believes in democracy and scrutiny. IMO. > > History rarely repeats itself exactly. But it is complacent not to be concerned about some worrying trends in political life today, which do - however faintly - echo past times when a liberal democratic order and culture was similarly under strain. <
++++++
I don't like Farage, but comparing Farage to Hitler, in any form, is just the most dribbling, hysterical nonsense. Calm down and have a cup of tea.
If you want a better comparison he is a classic democratic western populist, a mix of, say, Pym Fortuyn and Berlusconi. Such politicians may well be undesirable, but they are not going to re-open the gas chambers.
Apparently the anger of Brexiteers must be appeased. But the anger of Remainers must be ignored.
How on earth Brexiteers think this will create a consensus and allow the country to “move on” is never explained.
The anger of the Brexiteers was appeased by giving them a referendum. It’s been reignited by the non implementation of the result.
Why would Remainers be angry? They lost a referendum three years ago, but we are still in the EU. They should be ecstatic, how much better could it have gone for them?
We are heading in short order for a No Deal exit to be implemented by one of the most incompetent governments in living memory, no matter who leads it, with no plan, having trashed our reputation with our closest allies and friends.
> @Cyclefree said: > Apparently the anger of Brexiteers must be appeased. But the anger of Remainers must be ignored. > > How on earth Brexiteers think this will create a consensus and allow the country to “move on” is never explained. > > The anger of the Brexiteers was appeased by giving them a referendum. It’s been reignited by the non implementation of the result. > > Why would Remainers be angry? They lost a referendum three years ago, but we are still in the EU. They should be ecstatic, how much better could it have gone for them? > > We are heading in short order for a No Deal exit to be implemented by one of the most incompetent governments in living memory, no matter who leads it, with no plan, having trashed our reputation with our closest allies and friends. > > You expect us to be ecstatic? <
+++++
No Deal is far from certain. I'd have all three possibilities as roughly equal now: No Deal, Revote, Revoke.
There's a 33% chance of any of these.
EDIT: Actually, no, I have forgotten there are other alternatives, so I'd put the chances thus:
No Deal: 25% Revote: 25% Revoke: 25% Various other options (endless extensions, a surprise offer from the EU, a miraculous solution to the backstop problem, PM Boris agreeing to EFTA): a combined: 25%
> @Cyclefree said: > Apparently the anger of Brexiteers must be appeased. But the anger of Remainers must be ignored. > > How on earth Brexiteers think this will create a consensus and allow the country to “move on” is never explained. > > The anger of the Brexiteers was appeased by giving them a referendum. It’s been reignited by the non implementation of the result. > > Why would Remainers be angry? They lost a referendum three years ago, but we are still in the EU. They should be ecstatic, how much better could it have gone for them? > > We are heading in short order for a No Deal exit to be implemented by one of the most incompetent governments in living memory, no matter who leads it, with no plan, having trashed our reputation with our closest allies and friends. > > You expect us to be ecstatic?
> @Cyclefree said: > Apparently the anger of Brexiteers must be appeased. But the anger of Remainers must be ignored. > > How on earth Brexiteers think this will create a consensus and allow the country to “move on” is never explained. > > The anger of the Brexiteers was appeased by giving them a referendum. It’s been reignited by the non implementation of the result. > > Why would Remainers be angry? They lost a referendum three years ago, but we are still in the EU. They should be ecstatic, how much better could it have gone for them? > > We are heading in short order for a No Deal exit to be implemented by one of the most incompetent governments in living memory, no matter who leads it, with no plan, having trashed our reputation with our closest allies and friends. > > You expect us to be ecstatic?
Bad news for Remainers - a WTO Brexit has been built up as the end of days with snakes walking, the seas boiling and frogs falling from the sky.
When the inevitable damp squib happens then Brexit really will be behind us.
The key political question has now become what or where TBP will do after it wins the European elections and perhaps the Peterborough by-election as well.
Will TBP try to become a potential Party of Government or will it seek to take over the Conservatives either direct or by proxy (Boris?) . There's an argument TBP and Conservatives opposing each other lets in Labour though I'm less convinced about that. As we are yet to get much insight into the TBP's non-EU agenda I wonder if it will be more socially conservative and more interventionist than some Conservatives will care for.
This would then be the moment of existential crisis of the Conservative Party. Will it, pace Canada, be swept away and replaced with a new centre-right grouping based on the TBP or will it absorb TBP back into the Party and re-emerge as the primary
> @williamglenn said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > > I think it would be better classified as those people whose lives were vastly improved under Thatcher's free market expansion, but originally come from quite humble roots. All those people who worked hard, bought their council houses, did them up, moved up the ladder, gave their kids a better life etc etc etc. > > > --------- > > And yet that broadcast is basically saying that the Thatcher revolution was wrong, by jumping straight from 70s Labour to 90s New Labour and comparing them unfavourably. It's a very beguiling message.
No they aren't. It carefully doesn't skips over Thatcher and goes to what a lot of people think was Blair "selling us out" to the EU by his terrible decision to give up part of the debate and also how he handled EU expansion.
I think a lot of the people who benefited from Thatcher voted for Blair as they thought the cost cutting had gone too far and needed a nudge in the other direction, with the initial reassurance that basically the Blair government was going to follow the Tories general economic plans with socialism binned.
> Apparently the anger of Brexiteers must be appeased. But the anger of Remainers must be ignored.
>
> How on earth Brexiteers think this will create a consensus and allow the country to “move on” is never explained.
>
> The anger of the Brexiteers was appeased by giving them a referendum. It’s been reignited by the non implementation of the result.
>
> Why would Remainers be angry? They lost a referendum three years ago, but we are still in the EU. They should be ecstatic, how much better could it have gone for them?
>
> We are heading in short order for a No Deal exit to be implemented by one of the most incompetent governments in living memory, no matter who leads it, with no plan, having trashed our reputation with our closest allies and friends.
>
> You expect us to be ecstatic?
We're not heading for a no deal exit.
I have the uncomfortable feeling that Britain may already have reached its end state: permanently sat in the dentist's waiting room.
> I said that there was a hint of the Fuehrerprincip about the way Farage operates. And I stand by that, based on those facts. That does not mean that I think he is just like Hitler or that what is happening is exactly like the rise of Hitler or Mussolini.
>
>
> Farage himself has talked about taking up his rifle. Maybe it was a joke.
>
> Farage has on more than one occasion peddled anti-Semitic tropes. When politicians are happy to do this it is a sign of a growth of a fundamentally illiberal political culture. That bodes very badly for our liberal democracy.
>
> Does he have an extremist ideology? Who knows? Rather contemptuously he refuses to let us know what his party’s policies are. We must just believe in him. This is not the mark of a man who really believes in democracy and scrutiny. IMO.
>
> History rarely repeats itself exactly. But it is complacent not to be concerned about some worrying trends in political life today, which do - however faintly - echo past times when a liberal democratic order and culture was similarly under strain. <
++++++
I don't like Farage, but comparing Farage to Hitler, in any form, is just the most dribbling, hysterical nonsense. Calm down and have a cup of tea.
If you want a better comparison he is a classic democratic western populist, a mix of, say, Pym Fortuyn and Berlusconi. Such politicians may well be undesirable, but they are not going to re-open the gas chambers.
And I didn’t say he was and expressly stated that I did not think he was like Hitler.
Nothing like Pim Fortuyn IMO.
People are far too complacent about how easily this sort of approach to politics can segue into something very much more extreme. I hope I am wrong but I feel something worrying and dark is happening to British politics, both from the left and right. And I note that those who disagree with my views (which may very well be wrong) have no answers to the facts.
> @stodge said: > The key political question has now become what or where TBP will do after it wins the European elections and perhaps the Peterborough by-election as well. > > Will TBP try to become a potential Party of Government or will it seek to take over the Conservatives either direct or by proxy (Boris?) . There's an argument TBP and Conservatives opposing each other lets in Labour though I'm less convinced about that. As we are yet to get much insight into the TBP's non-EU agenda I wonder if it will be more socially conservative and more interventionist than some Conservatives will care for. > > This would then be the moment of existential crisis of the Conservative Party. Will it, pace Canada, be swept away and replaced with a new centre-right grouping based on the TBP or will it absorb TBP back into the Party and re-emerge as the primary
TBP is an odd beast at the moment. It doesn't have any members, it's a limited company vehicle for Farage. He will need to do a lot of work to make it an ordinary party - at which point he'll start collecting chancers and flotsam as UKIP did.
Apparently the anger of Brexiteers must be appeased. But the anger of Remainers must be ignored.
How on earth Brexiteers think this will create a consensus and allow the country to “move on” is never explained.
The anger of the Brexiteers was appeased by giving them a referendum. It’s been reignited by the non implementation of the result.
Why would Remainers be angry? They lost a referendum three years ago, but we are still in the EU. They should be ecstatic, how much better could it have gone for them?
We are heading in short order for a No Deal exit to be implemented by one of the most incompetent governments in living memory, no matter who leads it, with no plan, having trashed our reputation with our closest allies and friends.
You expect us to be ecstatic?
It's obviously disappointing to be defeated, but the deal was there to be signed if the MPs that said they would honour the referendum wanted to, and they chose not to. They are the ones to be angry with or at.
But the status quo is that you have what you want, despite losing the vote, so it's not too bad
Comments
> So the talks are dead.
>
> Which one of the parties is ready to set out a bold vision of how we can move forward from here rather than spout excuses and platitudes ?
>
>
May clearly cannot do this so it is a golden opportunity for Corbyn. But I can't say I'm overflowing with optimism that he will rise to the challenge.
1. He does talk about betrayal.
2. He does talk about the Will of the People.
3. The party is purely a personal vehicle around him.
4. There are no checks and balances within its structure.
5. He has been personally funded by Arron Banks.
6. Arron Banks is under investigation by the NCA.
You may not like the message or the messenger. But facts are facts. Ignore them at your peril.
> https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1129312134310055939
If the goverment whips against a second referendum there aren't enough votes to do it, so there's no point in helping the government pass earlier stages in the hope of amending it without their agreement.
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1129332991610818560
>
> He is becoming messianic. Dangerous.
>
> The main parties were warned repeatedly that this would happen. I don't see how the genie is put back now. UK has a Nationalist Populist party and it will win seats. Whether it can sweep aside the entire political system is another question.
>
> No doubt Bannon is providing plenty of advice to Nigel.
With votes split across many parties it is possible for a majority to be won on less than 30% vote share. This is why we need a better voting system than FPTP.
Not a prediction, but not impossible (html tags not working..)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=22&LAB=20&LIB=15&UKIP=4&Green=4&ChUK=1&Brexit=29&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
> https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1129345882950918150
Paging the Jezziah and BJO....
> Any news on the whispers that 1922 might allow 4 candidates to go through to membership?
Could be Chinese whispers after someone asked for 4 candied dates.
FWIW, I suspect both bets are value and Labour are far too short at 1/2.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1129345882950918150
>
> Paging the Jezziah and BJO....
Again, it's not the numbers that count, it's where they are and whether they would switch to a new, more hardline pro-Brexiteer Tory leader. Losing 100K votes in inner London doesn't matter, losing 100K votes in Leave marginals in the North and Midlands does
The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife.
Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps?
Good.
> Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today.
>
> The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife.
>
> Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps?
The usual reason is to send two leaflets to the same house (postage via Royal Mail is free for Generals & EU elections: either a free addressed leaflet to every elector, or a free unaddressed leaflet to every household).
It's possible there may be some targeting involved in deciding which of you gets which leaflet, but it's probably just as likely that they just ended up sorted that way in the spreadsheet...
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1129348649383866369
>
> https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1129348649383866369
"This is a dead party..."
> https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1129332991610818560
>
>
>
> And, of course, if the winners accept the result.
Changed his tune.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
> https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1129352205826449409
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1129348649383866369
I've seen more cheerful expressions at funerals.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @williamglenn said:
>
> >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1129332991610818560
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > He is becoming messianic. Dangerous.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > He certainly is. There is, at the risk of invoking Godwin’s Law, more than a hint of the Fuehrerprincip about him, with all this talk of betrayal and Will of the People stuff, and a party built purely around him with no checks and balances with him being funded personally by a man under investigation by the NCA.
>
>
>
> Yep. You invoked Godwin.
>
> And yet are any of the facts I have set down about him (setting aside the interpretation) untrue:-
>
> 1. He does talk about betrayal.
> 2. He does talk about the Will of the People.
> 3. The party is purely a personal vehicle around him.
> 4. There are no checks and balances within its structure.
> 5. He has been personally funded by Arron Banks.
> 6. Arron Banks is under investigation by the NCA.
>
> You may not like the message or the messenger. But facts are facts. Ignore them at your peril.
But none of those facts in any way justify comparisons with Hitler. All of the important factors that drove his rise to power and his actions as he made that rise including complete economic collapse, a series of recent armed revolts and an extremist ideology underpinning his party are completely absent today. Making such comparisons even in passing is just idiotic scaremongering.
That would be an extraordinary result and very damaging for both May and Corbyn
Irony is dead, it really is.
Parenthetically, his co-authored book about National Populism is in the library: I leafed thru it the other week. When I've gone thru my existing pile, I'll grab a copy and have a look.
> Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today.
>
> The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife.
>
> Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps?
Have not had a LD leaflet yet, had them from the Tories, Labour, the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats though
Green 2
Brexit 1
Change 1
The change leaflet is no good. Optimistically, they ask us to put the leaflet in the window. It's a union flag / EU flag fade-across, with their logo in the bottom right. It's not going in my window.
Tories - Hold my beer.
> The self-love that dare not speak its name:
>
> https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1129318209293889536 <
++++++
Incest: the love that dare not speak its surname.
> Change UK - We'll do the worst attended 'event' ever !
>
> Tories - Hold my beer.
>
It looks like Theresa May is saying, "Please clasp your hands together. That's it! That's the answer!"
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today.
> >
> > The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife.
> >
> > Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps?
>
> Have not had a LD leaflet yet, had them from the Tories, Labour, the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats though
I've had LibDem, Labour and Brexit
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today.
> > >
> > > The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife.
> > >
> > > Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps?
> >
> > Have not had a LD leaflet yet, had them from the Tories, Labour, the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats though
>
> I've had LibDem, Labour and Brexit
I've *only* had a Brexit party leaflet. My wife hasn't had one from anyone. (I'm first-named on the electoral roll, which might make a difference).
> LEAFLET SCORE, UPDATED:
> Green 2
> Brexit 1
> Change 1
>
> The change leaflet is no good. Optimistically, they ask us to put the leaflet in the window. It's a union flag / EU flag fade-across, with their logo in the bottom right. It's not going in my window.
Interesting that I haven't yet seen a Change poster in Totnes.
Seat of Dr. Sarah Wollaston.
> > @logical_song said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today.
> > > >
> > > > The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife.
> > > >
> > > > Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps?
> > >
> > > Have not had a LD leaflet yet, had them from the Tories, Labour, the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats though
> >
> > I've had LibDem, Labour and Brexit
>
> I've *only* had a Brexit party leaflet. My wife hasn't had one from anyone. (I'm first-named on the electoral roll, which might make a difference).
Ah, that would explain why my daughter received the only two leaflets sent to our house.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1129352205826449409
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1129348649383866369
>
> I've seen more cheerful expressions at funerals.
Nobody wants to be filmed with the corpse.....
> And yet are any of the facts I have set down about him (setting aside the interpretation) untrue:-
>
> 1. He does talk about betrayal.
> 2. He does talk about the Will of the People.
> 3. The party is purely a personal vehicle around him.
> 4. There are no checks and balances within its structure.
> 5. He has been personally funded by Arron Banks.
> 6. Arron Banks is under investigation by the NCA.
>
> You may not like the message or the messenger. But facts are facts. Ignore them at your peril.
If they decide to create checks and balances within the <strikethrough>buiness</strikethrough> party, they can call it The 1933 Committee.
> > @_Anazina_ said:
> > If Jezza is to be believed, the Government remains keen on importing chlorinated chicken and (presumably) a whole load of other low-standard foodstuffs from the United States. Can anyone explain why they think this is a good idea?
> >
> > "If Jezza is to be believed"
> >
> > *snort*
> >
> > Well I recognise that it's a stretch, but it might be true. Who knows?
>
> I wouldn't trust Corbyn if he told me it was 12.47pm. I'd check my watch first... i
> I am an hr ahead of gmt btw...
More to the point, do you trust the Secretary of State for Trade? It's what he said - he apparently believes (entirely incorrectly) that WTO does not allow us to set even non-discriminatory standards..
As has been said, the problem is not the chlorine - it's the infections that intensive breeding assist which the chlorine is trying too kill off.
> > @_Anazina_ said:
> > Of course it might boost Labour support among Remain voters.....
> >
> > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129300905030037504
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Am I the only one who finds Goodwin deeply annoying? He is academia's version of Han Dodges, he writes the same thing over and over again and gets some idiot to pay him for it.
>
> I cant help but feel you find him annoying because his analysis does not match your political views. Personally i find his analysis both interesting and at times compelling. But I also recognise that is because his conclusions are often more in line with my own political views <
+++++
He can be very repetitive, and he is reminiscent of Dan Hodges in that respect, But then he is reminiscent of almost any political commentator on Twitter, you can only have so many opinions, so your Twitter feed is bound to be various different ways of saying the same things. The art is to give the repeated thought a slightly different twist each time.
More importantly, perhaps, Goodwin is right about that PPB, for BXP. It is smooth, poignant, powerful, clever. Way ahead of anything the others are doing.
It looks like BXP have recruited expert pro scriptwriters, directors, producers, to achieve bewilderingly good social media. They remind me, oddly, of ISIS in that respect.
I hereby apologise to any BXP-ers for the analogy.
> Change UK - We'll do the worst attended 'event' ever !
>
> Tories - Hold my beer.
>
>
> https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1129299816121548800?s=20
I'm becoming increasingly weary with people who claim the only way to stop a monster is to feed it. That tactic has never, ever worked.
Any sort of economic, or even rational argument for leaving or remaining rapidly sailing out of view.
> Well that's clear then....https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/1129337699679244288
>
>
>
> Given the Standard’s report about him agreeing with May to stop a second referendum even being put to the vote, who does he think he’s kidding?
Do the cult still believe he is doing everything to stop Brexit? That this is some cunning plan to do so?
ISIS are on the phone. They were offended about your comparison to BXP and want an apology too. They said something about "there's extreme and then there's extreme..." but the phone line was unclear...
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1129299816121548800?s=20
>
> I'm becoming increasingly weary with people who claim the only way to stop a monster is to feed it. That tactic has never, ever worked.
You are not feeding it, you are depriving it of its food source.
As soon as we voted Leave in 2016 UKIP collapsed as it was no longer needed, MPs refusal to implement the Leave vote has led to the Brexit Party and Farage revival
> > @Carolus_Rex said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1129352205826449409
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1129348649383866369
> >
> > I've seen more cheerful expressions at funerals.
>
> Nobody wants to be filmed with the corpse.....
It is incredibly that a politician has managed to rise to the highest public office while been so piss poor with the media and public that the handlers can't risk letting their boss loose among them.
Gordon Brown was bad, but May takes it to another level.
But there are some worrying echoes which we should pay more careful attention to.
Other echoes:-
There has been a very serious financial crisis, the effects of which have been very long-standing and painful for some people. That in part is one reason why once fringe parties have been able to capture voters’ attention and support.
There have been people on the fringes willing to contemplate violence (and in some cases have used it). You will be well aware of the security services’ concerns about the threat from far right extremists. There is also some evidence that some of these groups and people are supporting Farage and his party, even though he says he does not want their support. I am a tad cynical. It strikes me as about as sincere as when Corbyn says that anti-semites don’t speak in his name but seems otherwise baffled as to why they are attracted to a party he leads. With no structures within the Brexit Party we have absolutely no transparency whether Farage’s words are accompanied by any action.
Farage himself has talked about taking up his rifle. Maybe it was a joke.
Farage has on more than one occasion peddled anti-Semitic tropes. When politicians are happy to do this it is a sign of a growth of a fundamentally illiberal political culture. That bodes very badly for our liberal democracy.
Does he have an extremist ideology? Who knows? Rather contemptuously he refuses to let us know what his party’s policies are. We must just believe in him. This is not the mark of a man who really believes in democracy and scrutiny. IMO.
History rarely repeats itself exactly. But it is complacent not to be concerned about some worrying trends in political life today, which do - however faintly - echo past times when a liberal democratic order and culture was similarly under strain.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1129299816121548800?s=20
> >
> > I'm becoming increasingly weary with people who claim the only way to stop a monster is to feed it. That tactic has never, ever worked.
>
> You are not feeding it, you are depriving it of its food source.
>
> As soon as we voted Leave in 2016 UKIP collapsed as it was no longer needed, MPs refusal to implement the Leave vote has led to the Brexit Party and Farage revival
That's not quite true. The polling for UKIP didn't collapse until the 2017 election. Certainly it dropped off after the referendum but then that could be expected of any party that lost its foremost voice and then went through the leadership shenanigans that UKIP endured that year.
>
> More importantly, perhaps, Goodwin is right about that PPB, for BXP. It is smooth, poignant, powerful, clever. Way ahead of anything the others are doing.
>
-------
The thing that's so effective about that broadcast is that its target audience isn't just the obvious one of disenchanted Labour Leave voters, but also those who are not in that category at all but want to identify with the nostalgic vision it presents (and who loved to hate Blair and Brown). The kind of conservatives who are quick to criticise virtue signalling but actually engage in it constantly.
> Opposition to leaving the EU even in a ultra-mild Boles form seems to be developing along the lines of "We can't do that because it's giving ground to the fascist Farage".
> Any sort of economic, or even rational argument for leaving or remaining rapidly sailing out of view.
Suppose we leave to a Norway-style arrangement, giving up a say on the rules, and Farage and his fellow travellers continue to bang on about Europe. What would be the point?
If Leavers are unwilling to accept a compromise then Remainers will refuse to do so too.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1129299816121548800?s=20
> > >
> > > I'm becoming increasingly weary with people who claim the only way to stop a monster is to feed it. That tactic has never, ever worked.
> >
> > You are not feeding it, you are depriving it of its food source.
> >
> > As soon as we voted Leave in 2016 UKIP collapsed as it was no longer needed, MPs refusal to implement the Leave vote has led to the Brexit Party and Farage revival
>
> That's not quite true. The polling for UKIP didn't collapse until the 2017 election. Certainly it dropped off after the referendum but then that could be expected of any party that lost its foremost voice and then went through the leadership shenanigans that UKIP endured that year.
However, the main point is right: had Brexit been delivered on the WA terms by 29/3/19, the Brexit party would never have become a thing and UKIP would be irrelevant. I do wonder if we've crossed a Rubicon since though.
>
> There have been people on the fringes willing to contemplate violence (and in some cases have used it). You will be well aware of the security services’ concerns about the threat from far right extremists. There is also some evidence that some of these groups and people are supporting Farage and his party, even though he says he does not want their support. I am a tad cynical. It strikes me as about as sincere as when Corbyn says that anti-semites don’t speak in his name but seems otherwise baffled as to why they are attracted to a party he leads. With no structures within the Brexit Party we have absolutely no transparency whether Farage’s words are accompanied by any action.
>
-------
Richard himself has spoken about how Brexit not happening would cause violence and civil unrest.
https://twitter.com/PJHeneghan/status/1129362612381208576
> As soon as we voted Leave in 2016 UKIP collapsed as it was no longer needed, MPs refusal to implement the Leave vote has led to the Brexit Party and Farage revival
As soon as the virus entered the host cell, its desiccated husk washed away in the bloodstream.
Yet here we are some time later and there's 100,000 virus cells. Where might they have come from?
> > @Byronic said:
> >
> > More importantly, perhaps, Goodwin is right about that PPB, for BXP. It is smooth, poignant, powerful, clever. Way ahead of anything the others are doing.
> >
> -------
>
> The thing that's so effective about that broadcast is that its target audience isn't just the obvious one of disenchanted Labour Leave voters, but also those who are not in that category at all but want to identify with the nostalgic vision it presents (and who loved to hate Blair and Brown). The kind of conservatives who are quick to criticise virtue signalling but actually engage in it constantly.
I think it would be better classified as those people whose lives were vastly improved under Thatcher's free market expansion, but originally come from quite humble roots. All those people who worked hard, bought their council houses, did them up, moved up the ladder, gave their kids a better life etc etc etc.
And the way she screwed it up was calamitously indicative.
https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1129346137868181504
What on earth possessed us all to think she'd be an OK prime minister? She is so bad, so very very very bad, wooden, stubborn, narrow-minded, clueless and awkward, I now believe she'd have been a pretty bad PM even if she hadn't had the mess of Brexit to "fix". As it is, she will go down as one of the worst in British history.
> Subsamples and all that, but still:
>
On Europe - what is the point of Labour ? The Scots can grasp that as well as any.
Any tribal loyalty to Labour is long gone.
> Subsamples and all that, but still:
>
> twitter.com/PJHeneghan/status/1129362612381208576
Corbyn as popular in Scotland as Tunnocks advertising campaign for British Teacakes.
> Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today.
>
> The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife.
>
> Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps?
Nope, almost certainly done by alphabetic sequence of names.
> > @david_herdson said:
> > > @logical_song said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > Addressed Brexit and LD leaflets in post today.
> > > > >
> > > > > The former addressed only to me, the latter only to my wife.
> > > > >
> > > > > Seems some demographic/gender targeting is going on perhaps?
> > > >
> > > > Have not had a LD leaflet yet, had them from the Tories, Labour, the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats though
> > >
> > > I've had LibDem, Labour and Brexit
> >
> > I've *only* had a Brexit party leaflet. My wife hasn't had one from anyone. (I'm first-named on the electoral roll, which might make a difference).
>
> Ah, that would explain why my daughter received the only two leaflets sent to our house.
My wife had a personally addressed LD leaflet... as previously mentioned, a 'nice letter from Vince Cable' ..... about a week ago. Mine arrived today. We've also had Labour, English "Democrats", Green (today) and Brexit. None of them personalised. Is Rennard back in town?
Nothing yet from the Tories. How many people vote by post nowadays, and will have already done so.
Discussion with financial advisor yesterday; he wants to go with the Referendum or back to the Common Market. Beginning to question his judgement, although it's been OK so far.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1129332991610818560
>
> He is becoming messianic. Dangerous.
As someone who believes that it's vital that we change the electoral system, I hail my new messiah.
FPT and a response to my comments on Guildford from @kjh;
Are you local to Guildford Stodge?
Yes the Green supported the Independents and the Tories voted 5 for the LD and 3 abstained.
Although I am a liberal I am not happy with this. I have no inside knowledge as to what happened in the discussions so it may have been inevitable, but the result of the election was clearly against the shenanigans of the Conservative Executive, so it is not good to have another established party taking control, particularly with the support of the previous Conservative leader of the council. I think the LDs should have done a deal with the Indies and if they couldn't manage that then let the Indies take the council.
Not local but work there and know quite a few people in and around Guildford politics and the Council. The result two weeks ago came as no surprise and I flagged on here back in the spring how organised the two anti-local plan groups, R4GV and GGG were. Both groups have plenty of supporters and are well funded with strong social media presence.
My understanding is the former Conservative council leader offered his Party's support as kingmaker to BOTH the LDs and the R4GV/GGG group but both refused. The Council's endorsement of the Local Plan just before the election was the political equivalent of signing their own death warrant but I don't think anyone saw how the national tide would sweep the local Conservatives away with it (they went from having 32 to just 9).
I share your concern but the two salient facts are 1) the Conservatives, defeated though they were, were left holding the balance of power and 2) Councillor Reeves had publicly stated she would not go into a formal coalition with R4GV.
I find the fact the Conservative Group split so publicly astonishing - is this a shape of things to come as the Party implodes and we see perhaps defections to TBP? Had they abstained, Councillor Bigmore would have won but for whatever reason, the group split.
>
"Larger parties" ? By no of MPs or voters ?
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @_Anazina_ said:
> > > Of course it might boost Labour support among Remain voters.....
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129300905030037504
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Am I the only one who finds Goodwin deeply annoying? He is academia's version of Han Dodges, he writes the same thing over and over again and gets some idiot to pay him for it.
> >
> > I cant help but feel you find him annoying because his analysis does not match your political views. Personally i find his analysis both interesting and at times compelling. But I also recognise that is because his conclusions are often more in line with my own political views <
>
> +++++
>
> He can be very repetitive, and he is reminiscent of Dan Hodges in that respect, But then he is reminiscent of almost any political commentator on Twitter, you can only have so many opinions, so your Twitter feed is bound to be various different ways of saying the same things. The art is to give the repeated thought a slightly different twist each time.
>
> More importantly, perhaps, Goodwin is right about that PPB, for BXP. It is smooth, poignant, powerful, clever. Way ahead of anything the others are doing.
>
> It looks like BXP have recruited expert pro scriptwriters, directors, producers, to achieve bewilderingly good social media. They remind me, oddly, of ISIS in that respect.
>
> I hereby apologise to any BXP-ers for the analogy.
>
>
Well last night on here some were suggesting the rise of the Brexit party was analagous to Germany in 1932-33 - so the ISIS comparison is probably quite mild by comparison!
Just the rise of angry middle England (and Wales) who want the Brexit they believe they voted for delivered.
Farage and Widdecombe - not really Adolf and Eva are they!
How on earth Brexiteers think this will create a consensus and allow the country to “move on” is never explained.
I mean, you can see it in their faces. The joy at what is unfolding.
https://twitter.com/Marina2JR/status/1129364599801810944
Why would Remainers be angry? They lost a referendum three years ago, but we are still in the EU. They should be ecstatic, how much better could it have gone for them?
>
> I think it would be better classified as those people whose lives were vastly improved under Thatcher's free market expansion, but originally come from quite humble roots. All those people who worked hard, bought their council houses, did them up, moved up the ladder, gave their kids a better life etc etc etc.
>
---------
And yet that broadcast is basically saying that the Thatcher revolution was wrong, by jumping straight from 70s Labour to 90s New Labour and comparing them unfavourably. It's a very beguiling message.
> Mark Wood is bowling incredibly quickly this morning...the only problem is the ball is going to the boundary at a similar rate.
63-0 off 10 overs isn't too bad for the bowling side these days.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @williamglenn said:
>
>
>
>
>
>
> But none of those facts in any way justify comparisons with Hitler. All of the important factors that drove his rise to power and his actions as he made that rise including complete economic collapse, a series of recent armed revolts and an extremist ideology underpinning his party are completely absent today. Making such comparisons even in passing is just idiotic scaremongering.
>
> I said that there was a hint of the Fuehrerprincip about the way Farage operates. And I stand by that, based on those facts. That does not mean that I think he is just like Hitler or that what is happening is exactly like the rise of Hitler or Mussolini.
>
>
> Farage himself has talked about taking up his rifle. Maybe it was a joke.
>
> Farage has on more than one occasion peddled anti-Semitic tropes. When politicians are happy to do this it is a sign of a growth of a fundamentally illiberal political culture. That bodes very badly for our liberal democracy.
>
> Does he have an extremist ideology? Who knows? Rather contemptuously he refuses to let us know what his party’s policies are. We must just believe in him. This is not the mark of a man who really believes in democracy and scrutiny. IMO.
>
> History rarely repeats itself exactly. But it is complacent not to be concerned about some worrying trends in political life today, which do - however faintly - echo past times when a liberal democratic order and culture was similarly under strain. <
++++++
I don't like Farage, but comparing Farage to Hitler, in any form, is just the most dribbling, hysterical nonsense. Calm down and have a cup of tea.
If you want a better comparison he is a classic democratic western populist, a mix of, say, Pym Fortuyn and Berlusconi. Such politicians may well be undesirable, but they are not going to re-open the gas chambers.
You expect us to be ecstatic?
> Apparently the anger of Brexiteers must be appeased. But the anger of Remainers must be ignored.
>
> How on earth Brexiteers think this will create a consensus and allow the country to “move on” is never explained.
>
> The anger of the Brexiteers was appeased by giving them a referendum. It’s been reignited by the non implementation of the result.
>
> Why would Remainers be angry? They lost a referendum three years ago, but we are still in the EU. They should be ecstatic, how much better could it have gone for them?
>
> We are heading in short order for a No Deal exit to be implemented by one of the most incompetent governments in living memory, no matter who leads it, with no plan, having trashed our reputation with our closest allies and friends.
>
> You expect us to be ecstatic? <
+++++
No Deal is far from certain. I'd have all three possibilities as roughly equal now: No Deal, Revote, Revoke.
There's a 33% chance of any of these.
EDIT: Actually, no, I have forgotten there are other alternatives, so I'd put the chances thus:
No Deal: 25%
Revote: 25%
Revoke: 25%
Various other options (endless extensions, a surprise offer from the EU, a miraculous solution to the backstop problem, PM Boris agreeing to EFTA): a combined: 25%
> Apparently the anger of Brexiteers must be appeased. But the anger of Remainers must be ignored.
>
> How on earth Brexiteers think this will create a consensus and allow the country to “move on” is never explained.
>
> The anger of the Brexiteers was appeased by giving them a referendum. It’s been reignited by the non implementation of the result.
>
> Why would Remainers be angry? They lost a referendum three years ago, but we are still in the EU. They should be ecstatic, how much better could it have gone for them?
>
> We are heading in short order for a No Deal exit to be implemented by one of the most incompetent governments in living memory, no matter who leads it, with no plan, having trashed our reputation with our closest allies and friends.
>
> You expect us to be ecstatic?
We're not heading for a no deal exit.
> Apparently the anger of Brexiteers must be appeased. But the anger of Remainers must be ignored.
>
> How on earth Brexiteers think this will create a consensus and allow the country to “move on” is never explained.
>
> The anger of the Brexiteers was appeased by giving them a referendum. It’s been reignited by the non implementation of the result.
>
> Why would Remainers be angry? They lost a referendum three years ago, but we are still in the EU. They should be ecstatic, how much better could it have gone for them?
>
> We are heading in short order for a No Deal exit to be implemented by one of the most incompetent governments in living memory, no matter who leads it, with no plan, having trashed our reputation with our closest allies and friends.
>
> You expect us to be ecstatic?
Bad news for Remainers - a WTO Brexit has been built up as the end of days with snakes walking, the seas boiling and frogs falling from the sky.
When the inevitable damp squib happens then Brexit really will be behind us.
Will TBP try to become a potential Party of Government or will it seek to take over the Conservatives either direct or by proxy (Boris?) . There's an argument TBP and Conservatives opposing each other lets in Labour though I'm less convinced about that. As we are yet to get much insight into the TBP's non-EU agenda I wonder if it will be more socially conservative and more interventionist than some Conservatives will care for.
This would then be the moment of existential crisis of the Conservative Party. Will it, pace Canada, be swept away and replaced with a new centre-right grouping based on the TBP or will it absorb TBP back into the Party and re-emerge as the primary
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> >
> > I think it would be better classified as those people whose lives were vastly improved under Thatcher's free market expansion, but originally come from quite humble roots. All those people who worked hard, bought their council houses, did them up, moved up the ladder, gave their kids a better life etc etc etc.
> >
> ---------
>
> And yet that broadcast is basically saying that the Thatcher revolution was wrong, by jumping straight from 70s Labour to 90s New Labour and comparing them unfavourably. It's a very beguiling message.
No they aren't. It carefully doesn't skips over Thatcher and goes to what a lot of people think was Blair "selling us out" to the EU by his terrible decision to give up part of the debate and also how he handled EU expansion.
I think a lot of the people who benefited from Thatcher voted for Blair as they thought the cost cutting had gone too far and needed a nudge in the other direction, with the initial reassurance that basically the Blair government was going to follow the Tories general economic plans with socialism binned.
Nothing like Pim Fortuyn IMO.
People are far too complacent about how easily this sort of approach to politics can segue into something very much more extreme. I hope I am wrong but I feel something worrying and dark is happening to British politics, both from the left and right. And I note that those who disagree with my views (which may very well be wrong) have no answers to the facts.
> The key political question has now become what or where TBP will do after it wins the European elections and perhaps the Peterborough by-election as well.
>
> Will TBP try to become a potential Party of Government or will it seek to take over the Conservatives either direct or by proxy (Boris?) . There's an argument TBP and Conservatives opposing each other lets in Labour though I'm less convinced about that. As we are yet to get much insight into the TBP's non-EU agenda I wonder if it will be more socially conservative and more interventionist than some Conservatives will care for.
>
> This would then be the moment of existential crisis of the Conservative Party. Will it, pace Canada, be swept away and replaced with a new centre-right grouping based on the TBP or will it absorb TBP back into the Party and re-emerge as the primary
TBP is an odd beast at the moment. It doesn't have any members, it's a limited company vehicle for Farage. He will need to do a lot of work to make it an ordinary party - at which point he'll start collecting chancers and flotsam as UKIP did.
But the status quo is that you have what you want, despite losing the vote, so it's not too bad