> @Byronic said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > And I gave you more facts to which you provided no answer. I have not back-pedalled. I said exactly what I think about the way Farage is operating and the facts on which I base my view. His MO is not something new; it has been used by leaders throughout history and is also being used by a number of other party leaders in Europe and elsewhere at present. You call it a smear because you do not like the message. Too bad. > > > > None so blind etc..... < > > +++++ > > You used the word "Fuhrerprinzip", applied to Farage, in your "non-comparison" with Hitler. You then claimed that Farage wasn't "just like Hitler", clearly implying that he is a "bit like Hitler", or *somewhat* like Hitler? > > You said Farage had encouraged violence, was using anti-Semitic tropes, was whipping up hatred, just like Hitler did, only that wasn't your comparison, oh no. > > This kind of overstatement is doubly stupid, because it means Farage's detractors can all be dumped in a box marked "crazy Remainers", and sensible and logical examination of Farage's many flaws is thereby ignored. > > This is foolish, and beneath your intelligence. >
Führerprinzip "In actual political usage, it refers mainly to the practice of dictatorship within the ranks of a political party itself, and as such, it has become an earmark of political fascism."
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1129404732508909569 > > > > > > Genuine question: if they are not standing as a party in the elections, are they covered by spending rules and, if so, what's the legal basis for this? > > > > There are, as far as I am aware, no rules prohibiting newspapers from publishing whatever they want about any of the parties, including statements that they have made previously, on any number of topics. Or of publishing opinion pieces etc. > > > > So what is the difference between that and putting the same stuff on a billboard or on social media? > > Over my pay grade I’m afraid. I’m guessing that people have to go out of their way to buy newspapers while billboards are in your face like it or not > > If the owners of Costa coffee decided to change the sign above each shop to ‘Vote Lib Dem’ for the next week, would that be ok?
Didn't Tim Wotherspoon do something similar in his pubs? Put a lot of pro-Brexit mats or something?
> @AlastairMeeks said: > A not entirely innocent question. How many European Parliament seats does the brains trust think that the Conservatives will win next week?
The imminent political demise of Mrs May will herald a period, unless mortality intervenes, where the UK once again has six living Prime Ministers.
This recurring record was last seen when John Major became PM and Thatcher, Callaghan, Wilson, Heath and Home were alive and has happened ten previous times.
The earliest being when the Duke of Grafton became PM in November 1768 and Newcastle, Bute, Rockingham, Grenville and Pitt the Elder were living. This situation only lasted little over a month on account of the death of the Duke of Newcastle.
Unless there is some untimely clog popping a short term Conservative PM 2019-? would see the a seven time living Prime Minister record set.
To put the 64 EDMs on Israel and the Palestinians into perspective, Corbyn has tabled 55 EDMs calling for nuclear non-proliferation, one of the subjects for which he is best known. Some 18 of these specifically refer to Trident, Britain’s nuclear programme.
He has referenced his constituency of Islington 43 times during the same period – that’s almost 49 percent more EDMs on Israel than on his own constituency. He is more interested in criticising the Middle East’s only democracy than representing the people he was elected to speak for.
The Labour leader has tabled 23 EDMs related to trade unions, labour relations and workers’ rights. He sponsored 18 regarding the transport sector and workers within that sector. He proposed a further 17 on education, covering teachers’ pay, education funding and schools and colleges in his constituency. Corbyn’s EDMs on Israel are more than his EDMs on these three subjects – all of which he is passionate about – combined.
It's not bad, as these things go, but it's not remotely as powerful as their advert attacking Labour. Perhaps that says something in itself - the BXP's appeal to the Leaver WWCs is more potent, in the long run, than their appeal to middle class Tory Leavers.
> > Genuine question: if they are not standing as a party in the elections, are they covered by spending rules and, if so, what's the legal basis for this?
> >
> > There are, as far as I am aware, no rules prohibiting newspapers from publishing whatever they want about any of the parties, including statements that they have made previously, on any number of topics. Or of publishing opinion pieces etc.
> >
> > So what is the difference between that and putting the same stuff on a billboard or on social media?
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > Didn't Tim Wotherspoon do something similar in his pubs? Put a lot of pro-Brexit mats or something? > > > > Was he caught by the spending limits? > > ---- > > There is a fairly obvious difference in scale between a billboard hoarding and a beer mat. > > Technically, Wotherspoon probably is in breach of the same law as "Led by Donkeys". > > By all means, prosecute him, if you want to look completely ridiculous. > > But, "Led by Donkeys" should clearly be prosecuted, as it is a flagrant breach.
I was just enquiring. Probably more people will see beer mats than billboards but anyway this is for the Electoral Commission.
In the US I believe the Supreme Court recently ruled, on free speech grounds, that there could be no limits on spending by supportive groups. That's why I was curious about what the approach here is.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > The point of legislating in October would presumably be to compel the Executive to request another extension similarly as in April. > > That is always an option of course. But the real question is whether the EU will grant it.
I find it hard to believe that the EU would inflict a hard border on Ireland - by refusing an extension - given how hard they've negotiated for the backstop in order to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
A not entirely innocent question. How many European Parliament seats does the brains trust think that the Conservatives will win next week?
I’m not sure that any except Dan Hannan are safe. Likely to be around a handful.
My workings are as follows. There are 11 regions. We can safely assume that the Tories will not pick up any in either the north east or Northern Ireland (they're not standing in the latter and they will get nowhere near any of the three seats in the former).
That leaves us with the following nine regions in play:
East Midlands 5 East of England 7 London 8 North West England 8 South East England 10 South West England 6 West Midlands 7 Yorkshire and the Humber 6 Scotland 6 Wales 4
If they tally significantly less than 20% in each region they cannot possibly pick up more than one seat in that region, except perhaps in special circumstances the south east. Their highest polling since the local elections is 15%. On Welsh polling they look unlikely to pick up a seat there, on Scottish polling they look touch and go to pick up a seat there. On London-specific polling they look set to pick up exactly one seat there. Their position in East Midlands must be tenuous (Brexit 3, Labour 1, Lib Dem 1 looks entirely possible). You wouldn't be confident on them taking a seat in Yorkshire & The Humber either.
Eight looks the maximum unless current polling is very wrong. If YouGov's latest poll is right, they might be down to one.
All of which suggests that they are a sell on SPIN even at 6.4.
So, for its next trick the Conservative party is going to make a lying, serially unfaithful, self-absorbed, bone idle chancer who hangs out with white supremacists and believes in nothing but his own advancement the UK’s PM. And I thought Labour had a death wish!
I thought Chuka would be really smooth in these kind of adverts, but he is as stiff as a board. "Sit up & TAKE notice" not "Sit up & notice" surely?.. must have been the 10th take and they couldn't be bothered
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > The point of legislating in October would presumably be to compel the Executive to request another extension similarly as in April. > > > > That is always an option of course. But the real question is whether the EU will grant it. > > I find it hard to believe that the EU would inflict a hard border on Ireland - by refusing an extension - given how hard they've negotiated for the backstop in order to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
Why would a No Deal Brexit PM (which it is my working assumption the Tory party will inflict on us) seek an extension?
If no extension is sought, the EU will have no say in the matter
I think the only thing Tory members care about (Brexit aside) is can the new leader beat Corbyn. Because the advent of a Corbyn government will make Brexit look like a day in the park.
And looking at all the deeply mediocre contenders, at the front of the pack, I would agree with them: Boris has the best chance of beating JC.
> All of which suggests that they are a sell on SPIN even at 6.4.
How low would they have to go for Mr Hannan to be in trouble?
That's hard to work out. If the Conservatives were as low as 8% in the south east region, he'd be in danger. But that is likely to be one of their stronger regions, so that would imply still lower national polling - maybe 6%?
The Lib Dem experience in 2014 is perhaps the best guide, where they indeed picked up their one seat in that region.
So, for its next trick the Conservative party is going to make a lying, serially unfaithful, self-absorbed, bone idle chancer who hangs out with white supremacists and believes in nothing but his own advancement the UK’s PM. And I thought Labour had a death wish!
And takes office just as US and Iran go to war possibly. Yikes.
> @Charles said: > > If the owners of Costa coffee decided to change the sign above each shop to ‘Vote Lib Dem’ for the next week, would that be ok? > > > > Didn't Tim Wotherspoon do something similar in his pubs? Put a lot of pro-Brexit mats or something? > > > > Was he caught by the spending limits? > > He did din't he? I don't know if he was caught or not. I guess he could say it didn't cost him anything > > Was it in an electoral period?
I thought it was during the referendum campaign. But I may be misremembering. I have only once been in a Wotherspoon pub. Many years ago. Never again.
I think you should adjust those scores by the average over the qualities for that individual, to correct for people who like a candidate to rate them for all the qualities. That way it shows what the perceived strengths/weaknesses for each candidate lie.
Then Boris scores -7.8 for competence, while Gove would score +12.2
> > Genuine question: if they are not standing as a party in the elections, are they covered by spending rules and, if so, what's the legal basis for this?
> >
> > There are, as far as I am aware, no rules prohibiting newspapers from publishing whatever they want about any of the parties, including statements that they have made previously, on any number of topics. Or of publishing opinion pieces etc.
> >
> > So what is the difference between that and putting the same stuff on a billboard or on social media?
> @isam said: > Amateur hour continues......which side of the screen are you supposed to read? > > > > https://twitter.com/ForChange_Now/status/1129401388583272460 > > > > I thought Chuka would be really smooth in these kind of adverts, but he is as stiff as a board. "Sit up & TAKE notice" not "Sit up & notice" surely?.. must have been the 10th take and they couldn't be bothered
> I thought Chuka would be really smooth in these kind of adverts, but he is as stiff as a board. "Sit up & TAKE notice" not "Sit up & notice" surely?.. must have been the 10th take and they couldn't be bothered
Chuckas never been up to it as I said years ago?
Looked at my "Next Labour Leader" book on Betfair... I'm on at 25s! Not pretty reading
A not entirely innocent question. How many European Parliament seats does the brains trust think that the Conservatives will win next week?
I’m not sure that any except Dan Hannan are safe. Likely to be around a handful.
My workings are as follows. There are 11 regions. We can safely assume that the Tories will not pick up any in either the north east or Northern Ireland (they're not standing in the latter and they will get nowhere near any of the three seats in the former).
That leaves us with the following nine regions in play:
East Midlands 5 East of England 7 London 8 North West England 8 South East England 10 South West England 6 West Midlands 7 Yorkshire and the Humber 6 Scotland 6 Wales 4
If they tally significantly less than 20% in each region they cannot possibly pick up more than one seat in that region, except perhaps in special circumstances the south east. Their highest polling since the local elections is 15%. On Welsh polling they look unlikely to pick up a seat there, on Scottish polling they look touch and go to pick up a seat there. On London-specific polling they look set to pick up exactly one seat there. Their position in East Midlands must be tenuous (Brexit 3, Labour 1, Lib Dem 1 looks entirely possible). You wouldn't be confident on them taking a seat in Yorkshire & The Humber either.
Eight looks the maximum unless current polling is very wrong. If YouGov's latest poll is right, they might be down to one.
All of which suggests that they are a sell on SPIN even at 6.4.
I agree. The analysis of the YouGov earlier today suggested 5 Con seats, and I’m really not sure they couldn’t go lower.
Mike just posted a SPIN screenshot showing a sell price of 7.2, which is even better value. Personally I’m staying away from the spreads, with the polling so volatile.
I think the key to this election is going to be turnout, especially of postal votes which are already heading back and tend to turnout more reliably than on-the-day votes. If the oldies really are deserting the Tories for Brexit en masse, they could get 35% and Eagles could win his bet on the Tories getting under 10%. And Dan Hannan could be sitting in Brussels all on his own.
A not entirely innocent question. How many European Parliament seats does the brains trust think that the Conservatives will win next week?
I’m not sure that any except Dan Hannan are safe. Likely to be around a handful.
My workings are as follows. There are 11 regions. We can safely assume that the Tories will not pick up any in either the north east or Northern Ireland (they're not standing in the latter and they will get nowhere near any of the three seats in the former).
That leaves us with the following nine regions in play:
East Midlands 5 East of England 7 London 8 North West England 8 South East England 10 South West England 6 West Midlands 7 Yorkshire and the Humber 6 Scotland 6 Wales 4
If they tally significantly less than 20% in each region they cannot possibly pick up more than one seat in that region, except perhaps in special circumstances the south east. Their highest polling since the local elections is 15%. On Welsh polling they look unlikely to pick up a seat there, on Scottish polling they look touch and go to pick up a seat there. On London-specific polling they look set to pick up exactly one seat there. Their position in East Midlands must be tenuous (Brexit 3, Labour 1, Lib Dem 1 looks entirely possible). You wouldn't be confident on them taking a seat in Yorkshire & The Humber either.
Eight looks the maximum unless current polling is very wrong. If YouGov's latest poll is right, they might be down to one.
All of which suggests that they are a sell on SPIN even at 6.4.
I agree. The analysis of the YouGov earlier today suggested 5 Con seats, and I’m really not sure they couldn’t go lower.
Mike just posted a SPIN screenshot showing a sell price of 7.2, which is even better value. Personally I’m staying away from the spreads, with the polling so volatile.
I think the key to this election is going to be turnout, especially of postal votes which are already heading back and tend to turnout more reliably than on-the-day votes. If the oldies really are deserting the Tories for Brexit en masse, they could get 35% and Eagles could win his bet on the Tories getting under 10%. And Dan Hannan could be sitting in Brussels all on his own.
I sold at 7.2 and the price dropped afterwards, so apologies if I'm why.
> @Tissue_Price said: > Big gap opening up between Boris for Leader (2.9) and Boris for PM (4.0). Understandable if the rumours that c. 20 MPs would resign are correct. <
+++
I find it very very hard to believe 20 Tory MPs would resign and bring down the government, thereby risking - very severely, if you look at the polls - a Corbyn premiership, with all the horror that entails.
Presumably they would resign from the government but support it like the DUP, in VONCs etc.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > The point of legislating in October would presumably be to compel the Executive to request another extension similarly as in April. > > > > > > That is always an option of course. But the real question is whether the EU will grant it. > > > > I find it hard to believe that the EU would inflict a hard border on Ireland - by refusing an extension - given how hard they've negotiated for the backstop in order to avoid a hard border in Ireland. > > Why would a No Deal Brexit PM (which it is my working assumption the Tory party will inflict on us) seek an extension? > > If no extension is sought, the EU will have no say in the matter > >
Well, yes, but that is why Parliament will attempt to pass legislation to compel the Executive to request an extension...
> @Charles said: > > @Charles said: > > > Nice job Lib Dems! > > > > > > > > > > > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/17/lib-dems-win-council-first-time-give-massive-pay-rise/ > > > > > > Bet you the extra money gets “donated” to the party by the councillors > > > > That's the standard play as I understand it > > > > Personally I think it stinks > > It should be illegal > > If you want to state fund your parties have the balls to argue for if
Interesting the trivia people get hooked on when suffering withdrawal symptoms from Jeremy Kyle.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > A not entirely innocent question. How many European Parliament seats does the brains trust think that the Conservatives will win next week? > > My workings are as follows. ... > Eight looks the maximum unless current polling is very wrong. If YouGov's latest poll is right, they might be down to one. > > All of which suggests that they are a sell on SPIN even at 6.4.
Half their vote share from 2014 would be ~12% which seems reasonable.
Then, no seats where they won one seat in 2014, one seat where they won two and three seats in total across East England and South East England where they won three in each. Total of 8.
> @Byronic said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > Tory MPs (and members) might want to look at this. > > > > https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545 < > > +++++ > > I think the only thing Tory members care about (Brexit aside) is can the new leader beat Corbyn. Because the advent of a Corbyn government will make Brexit look like a day in the park. > > And looking at all the deeply mediocre contenders, at the front of the pack, I would agree with them: Boris has the best chance of beating JC. > >
My guess is that Johnson is the Tory leader most likely to keep the 2017 Labour voting coalition together.
> If the owners of Costa coffee decided to change the sign above each shop to ‘Vote Lib Dem’ for the next week, would that be ok?
Didn't Tim Wotherspoon do something similar in his pubs? Put a lot of pro-Brexit mats or something?
Was he caught by the spending limits?
He did din't he? I don't know if he was caught or not. I guess he could say it didn't cost him anything
No what he did would have been fine. If you remember the gist of the case against the not-especially-useful idiot Darren Grimes was that his organisation was under effective control of the official leave campaign. Had he been genuinely independent he wouldn't have ended up with a criminal record.
Eight looks the maximum unless current polling is very wrong. If YouGov's latest poll is right, they might be down to one.
All of which suggests that they are a sell on SPIN even at 6.4.
Well, I had them on 8 and Lab on 15 from earlier this week. LDs on 11. I went through and took 1% off the Tories & Labour everywhere and gave it to the LDs - they stayed on 11, but the Brexit Party gained 2 from Con and 1 from Lab
I had thought the Lib Dems might be a buy but 12 is quite a tough number for them to improve on - that's one seat everywhere bar the NE, with a second in London & the SE.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > Tory MPs (and members) might want to look at this. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545 < > > > > +++++ > > > > I think the only thing Tory members care about (Brexit aside) is can the new leader beat Corbyn. Because the advent of a Corbyn government will make Brexit look like a day in the park. > > > > And looking at all the deeply mediocre contenders, at the front of the pack, I would agree with them: Boris has the best chance of beating JC. > > > > > > My guess is that Johnson is the Tory leader most likely to keep the 2017 Labour voting coalition together. <
++++
You could well be right. Fact is, we are both guessing. But even if you are right that still means Boris would win a plurality (if he repeats T May's result) and the Tories would stay in power. And the Corbyn apocalypse would be averted.
Personally, I agree with A Meeks Esq - I think the Tories should go for one of the younger women: Truss, McVey, Mordaunt.
But I doubt they will look beyond Bojo, Raab or Gove, and possibly Javid.
1) fund an individual MP 2) fund an individual party 3) fund an individual cause.
Rules are different for each category, for referendums than elections, and proximity to the election. One interesting thing is that although donations above a certain amount have to be reported, the deadline for reporting them is not necessarily before the election.
If I have got anything wrong, apols, but it was from memory.
> > Bet you the extra money gets “donated” to the party by the councillors
>
>
>
> That's the standard play as I understand it
>
>
>
> Personally I think it stinks
>
> It should be illegal
>
> If you want to state fund your parties have the balls to argue for if
Interesting the trivia people get hooked on when suffering withdrawal symptoms from Jeremy Kyle.
It’s not really trivia.
I’m a great believer in transparency
I don't know the circumstances in Cotswold but I would not be surprised if it was something like this. The council had an independent review of allowances which proposed increases. The ruling group refused to support it before elections. After the elections (which saw a change of control) the new party in charge implemented it.
1) fund an individual MP 2) fund an individual party 3) fund an individual cause.
Rules are different for each category, for referendums than elections, and proximity to the election. One interesting thing is that although donations above a certain amount have to be reported, the deadline for reporting them is not necessarily before the election.
If I have got anything wrong, apols, but it was from memory.
This is tripped up by the rules on shadow support - in naming the Brexit party they have caught themselves inside the spending limits
> > Bet you the extra money gets “donated” to the party by the councillors
>
>
>
> That's the standard play as I understand it
>
>
>
> Personally I think it stinks
>
> It should be illegal
>
> If you want to state fund your parties have the balls to argue for if
Interesting the trivia people get hooked on when suffering withdrawal symptoms from Jeremy Kyle.
It’s not really trivia.
I’m a great believer in transparency
I don't know the circumstances in Cotswold but I would not be surprised if it was something like this. The council had an independent review of allowances which proposed increases. The ruling group refused to support it before elections. After the elections (which saw a change of control) the new party in charge implemented it.
> @Charles said: > O/T > > Just saw that OAC is arguing for usury laws. > > Usury laws fuck up the financial system worse than rental controls mess with property.
Usury is the charging of excessive interest, so something that the Conservative government here has acted against. Very sensible laws if set with reasonable threshold.
> I think these Tory members need to put more water in it.....what, in Boris Ministerial career persuades them that he is either competent or up to the job?
Boris would be a complete disaster for the country. Probably just as much as Corbyn although in different ways.
Lord knows what the Tory members see in Boris, they must be a right load of berks.
> @Charles said: > From memory, electoral law says you can: > > 1) fund an individual MP > 2) fund an individual party > 3) fund an individual cause. > > Rules are different for each category, for referendums than elections, and proximity to the election. One interesting thing is that although donations above a certain amount have to be reported, the deadline for reporting them is not necessarily before the election. > > If I have got anything wrong, apols, but it was from memory. > > This is tripped up by the rules on shadow support - in naming the Brexit party they have caught themselves inside the spending limits
I am no fan of spending huge amounts on campaigns - in effect trying to buy results - but in this age of social media is it not the case that these laws are now horribly outdated.
I am not sure I can get worried about the Donkeys posters when a single tweet or facebook posting by a celebrity endorsing one campaign/political party or another is probably (unfortunately) having far more impact. If someone has a million followers and decides to tell them all they should be voting Labour or Brexit or SNP I suspect the influence of that is at least equal to if not far exceeding that of the posters. And the cost of said tweet is a fraction of a penny.
1) fund an individual MP 2) fund an individual party 3) fund an individual cause.
Rules are different for each category, for referendums than elections, and proximity to the election. One interesting thing is that although donations above a certain amount have to be reported, the deadline for reporting them is not necessarily before the election.
If I have got anything wrong, apols, but it was from memory.
This is tripped up by the rules on shadow support - in naming the Brexit party they have caught themselves inside the spending limits
Surely only the money spent in the campaign period counts?
I have bunged them a few quid. Great stuff.
I did rather enjoy the photo of some of Farages walkers sitting and having a brew on one of @byDonkeys billboard lorries. How very civilised and British!
According to the polls posted in this thread, there appears to be a striking difference of opinion regarding Boris, between Tory members and Tory supporters. Whereas 2/3 of members think Boris is up to the job, only 1/3 of supporters agree.
Aside from indicating that Tory members are softer in the head than the general population, this is potentially electorally significant. LibDems, Change UK and Greens (not to mention Farage) could all benefit from a significant number of Tory supporters refusing to vote for a Boris-led Tory Party. Makes me wonder if Cable should reconsider stepping down - if there's a general election in the autumn he could do rather well in picking up those disaffected Tories.
> @Byronic said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > Brexit party coming after the Tories too: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1129417820138295298 > > > > This is a Brexit Party advert - not a PPB. Ditto the attack on Labour yesterday. < > > ++++ > > It's not bad, as these things go, but it's not remotely as powerful as their advert attacking Labour. Perhaps that says something in itself - the BXP's appeal to the Leaver WWCs is more potent, in the long run, than their appeal to middle class Tory Leavers. > >
How many people are likely to view these adverts - to be found on social media rather than television?
Comments
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > And I gave you more facts to which you provided no answer. I have not back-pedalled. I said exactly what I think about the way Farage is operating and the facts on which I base my view. His MO is not something new; it has been used by leaders throughout history and is also being used by a number of other party leaders in Europe and elsewhere at present. You call it a smear because you do not like the message. Too bad.
> >
> > None so blind etc..... <
>
> +++++
>
> You used the word "Fuhrerprinzip", applied to Farage, in your "non-comparison" with Hitler. You then claimed that Farage wasn't "just like Hitler", clearly implying that he is a "bit like Hitler", or *somewhat* like Hitler?
>
> You said Farage had encouraged violence, was using anti-Semitic tropes, was whipping up hatred, just like Hitler did, only that wasn't your comparison, oh no.
>
> This kind of overstatement is doubly stupid, because it means Farage's detractors can all be dumped in a box marked "crazy Remainers", and sensible and logical examination of Farage's many flaws is thereby ignored.
>
> This is foolish, and beneath your intelligence.
>
Führerprinzip
"In actual political usage, it refers mainly to the practice of dictatorship within the ranks of a political party itself, and as such, it has become an earmark of political fascism."
> Brexit party coming after the Tories too:
>
> https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1129417820138295298
This is a Brexit Party advert - not a PPB. Ditto the attack on Labour yesterday.
> > @isam said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1129404732508909569
>
>
>
>
>
> Genuine question: if they are not standing as a party in the elections, are they covered by spending rules and, if so, what's the legal basis for this?
>
>
>
> There are, as far as I am aware, no rules prohibiting newspapers from publishing whatever they want about any of the parties, including statements that they have made previously, on any number of topics. Or of publishing opinion pieces etc.
>
>
>
> So what is the difference between that and putting the same stuff on a billboard or on social media?
>
> Over my pay grade I’m afraid. I’m guessing that people have to go out of their way to buy newspapers while billboards are in your face like it or not
>
> If the owners of Costa coffee decided to change the sign above each shop to ‘Vote Lib Dem’ for the next week, would that be ok?
Didn't Tim Wotherspoon do something similar in his pubs? Put a lot of pro-Brexit mats or something?
Was he caught by the spending limits?
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1129421146414354432
>
> I think these Tory members need to put more water in it.....what, in Boris Ministerial career persuades them that he is either competent or up to the job?
Boris would be a complete disaster for the country. Probably just as much as Corbyn although in different ways.
https://order-order.com/2019/05/17/lib-dems-win-council-first-time-give-massive-pay-rise/
> A not entirely innocent question. How many European Parliament seats does the brains trust think that the Conservatives will win next week?
8.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545
This recurring record was last seen when John Major became PM and Thatcher, Callaghan, Wilson, Heath and Home were alive and has happened ten previous times.
The earliest being when the Duke of Grafton became PM in November 1768 and Newcastle, Bute, Rockingham, Grenville and Pitt the Elder were living. This situation only lasted little over a month on account of the death of the Duke of Newcastle.
Unless there is some untimely clog popping a short term Conservative PM 2019-? would see the a seven time living Prime Minister record set.
To put the 64 EDMs on Israel and the Palestinians into perspective, Corbyn has tabled 55 EDMs calling for nuclear non-proliferation, one of the subjects for which he is best known. Some 18 of these specifically refer to Trident, Britain’s nuclear programme.
He has referenced his constituency of Islington 43 times during the same period – that’s almost 49 percent more EDMs on Israel than on his own constituency. He is more interested in criticising the Middle East’s only democracy than representing the people he was elected to speak for.
The Labour leader has tabled 23 EDMs related to trade unions, labour relations and workers’ rights. He sponsored 18 regarding the transport sector and workers within that sector. He proposed a further 17 on education, covering teachers’ pay, education funding and schools and colleges in his constituency. Corbyn’s EDMs on Israel are more than his EDMs on these three subjects – all of which he is passionate about – combined.
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/jn-investigation-corbyns-anti-israel-obsession-in-numbers/
Boris way ahead
https://order-order.com/2019/05/17/anti-brexit-billboard-campaign-massive-apparent-breach-electoral-law/
Or do we only care about leave spending?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-biden/biden-shows-early-strength-but-pitfalls-loom-in-2020-u-s-presidential-race-idUSKCN1SN112
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48303529
> Didn't Tim Wotherspoon do something similar in his pubs? Put a lot of pro-Brexit mats or something?
>
> Was he caught by the spending limits?
----
There is a fairly obvious difference in scale between a billboard hoarding and a beer mat.
Technically, Wotherspoon probably is in breach of the same law as "Led by Donkeys".
By all means, prosecute him, if you want to look completely ridiculous.
But, "Led by Donkeys" should clearly be prosecuted, as it is a flagrant breach.
😳
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > Brexit party coming after the Tories too:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1129417820138295298
>
> This is a Brexit Party advert - not a PPB. Ditto the attack on Labour yesterday. <
++++
It's not bad, as these things go, but it's not remotely as powerful as their advert attacking Labour. Perhaps that says something in itself - the BXP's appeal to the Leaver WWCs is more potent, in the long run, than their appeal to middle class Tory Leavers.
https://twitter.com/ForChange_Now/status/1129401388583272460
Question I have is that Guido claims we’ve been in an electoral period (which is when the rules apply) since Jan 23.
Presumably that’s the standard period. But as of Jan 23 we weren’t having these elections - is the period retrospective? Seems a little unfair
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > Didn't Tim Wotherspoon do something similar in his pubs? Put a lot of pro-Brexit mats or something?
> >
> > Was he caught by the spending limits?
>
> ----
>
> There is a fairly obvious difference in scale between a billboard hoarding and a beer mat.
>
> Technically, Wotherspoon probably is in breach of the same law as "Led by Donkeys".
>
> By all means, prosecute him, if you want to look completely ridiculous.
>
> But, "Led by Donkeys" should clearly be prosecuted, as it is a flagrant breach.
I was just enquiring. Probably more people will see beer mats than billboards but anyway this is for the Electoral Commission.
In the US I believe the Supreme Court recently ruled, on free speech grounds, that there could be no limits on spending by supportive groups. That's why I was curious about what the approach here is.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > The point of legislating in October would presumably be to compel the Executive to request another extension similarly as in April.
>
> That is always an option of course. But the real question is whether the EU will grant it.
I find it hard to believe that the EU would inflict a hard border on Ireland - by refusing an extension - given how hard they've negotiated for the backstop in order to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
> Time for London to declare UDI.
>
>
>
>
We'd better wait for the results of the Euro election in London first.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129418027282423808
They aren't a runner, in any meaningful sense.
Hur hur hur......
That leaves us with the following nine regions in play:
East Midlands 5
East of England 7
London 8
North West England 8
South East England 10
South West England 6
West Midlands 7
Yorkshire and the Humber 6
Scotland 6
Wales 4
If they tally significantly less than 20% in each region they cannot possibly pick up more than one seat in that region, except perhaps in special circumstances the south east. Their highest polling since the local elections is 15%. On Welsh polling they look unlikely to pick up a seat there, on Scottish polling they look touch and go to pick up a seat there. On London-specific polling they look set to pick up exactly one seat there. Their position in East Midlands must be tenuous (Brexit 3, Labour 1, Lib Dem 1 looks entirely possible). You wouldn't be confident on them taking a seat in Yorkshire & The Humber either.
Eight looks the maximum unless current polling is very wrong. If YouGov's latest poll is right, they might be down to one.
All of which suggests that they are a sell on SPIN even at 6.4.
> In shock news Rory is not popular with Conservatives.
Rory The Tory is more popular than Matt Hancock!!!
Then again Herpes is more popular than Matt Hancock so...
>
> All of which suggests that they are a sell on SPIN even at 6.4.
How low would they have to go for Mr Hannan to be in trouble?
> OOPS
>
> https://order-order.com/2019/05/17/anti-brexit-billboard-campaign-massive-apparent-breach-electoral-law/
>
> Or do we only care about leave spending?
You know what happens if you keep reading Guido.
You go blind.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > The point of legislating in October would presumably be to compel the Executive to request another extension similarly as in April.
> >
> > That is always an option of course. But the real question is whether the EU will grant it.
>
> I find it hard to believe that the EU would inflict a hard border on Ireland - by refusing an extension - given how hard they've negotiated for the backstop in order to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
Why would a No Deal Brexit PM (which it is my working assumption the Tory party will inflict on us) seek an extension?
If no extension is sought, the EU will have no say in the matter
> Tory MPs (and members) might want to look at this.
>
> https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545 <
+++++
I think the only thing Tory members care about (Brexit aside) is can the new leader beat Corbyn. Because the advent of a Corbyn government will make Brexit look like a day in the park.
And looking at all the deeply mediocre contenders, at the front of the pack, I would agree with them: Boris has the best chance of beating JC.
The Lib Dem experience in 2014 is perhaps the best guide, where they indeed picked up their one seat in that region.
> > If the owners of Costa coffee decided to change the sign above each shop to ‘Vote Lib Dem’ for the next week, would that be ok?
>
>
>
> Didn't Tim Wotherspoon do something similar in his pubs? Put a lot of pro-Brexit mats or something?
>
>
>
> Was he caught by the spending limits?
>
> He did din't he? I don't know if he was caught or not. I guess he could say it didn't cost him anything
>
> Was it in an electoral period?
I thought it was during the referendum campaign. But I may be misremembering. I have only once been in a Wotherspoon pub. Many years ago. Never again.
> > @Floater said:
> > OOPS
> >
> > https://order-order.com/2019/05/17/anti-brexit-billboard-campaign-massive-apparent-breach-electoral-law/
> >
> > Or do we only care about leave spending?
>
> You know what happens if you keep reading Guido.
>
> You go blind.
I will put you in the don't care column.
> Nice job Lib Dems!
>
>
>
> https://order-order.com/2019/05/17/lib-dems-win-council-first-time-give-massive-pay-rise/
>
> Bet you the extra money gets “donated” to the party by the councillors
That's the standard play as I understand it
Personally I think it stinks
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1129421146414354432
>
> I think these Tory members need to put more water in it.....what, in Boris Ministerial career persuades them that he is either competent or up to the job?
I think you should adjust those scores by the average over the qualities for that individual, to correct for people who like a candidate to rate them for all the qualities. That way it shows what the perceived strengths/weaknesses for each candidate lie.
Then Boris scores -7.8 for competence, while Gove would score +12.2
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-crushes-leadership-rivals-in-poll-of-tory-members-6x5fcrcx3
Might have been a subsection I think
> Amateur hour continues......which side of the screen are you supposed to read?
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/ForChange_Now/status/1129401388583272460
>
>
>
> I thought Chuka would be really smooth in these kind of adverts, but he is as stiff as a board. "Sit up & TAKE notice" not "Sit up & notice" surely?.. must have been the 10th take and they couldn't be bothered
Chuckas never been up to it as I said years ago?
> I don't understand what Tory members see in Boris Johnson.
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-crushes-leadership-rivals-in-poll-of-tory-members-6x5fcrcx3
To be fair, it's pretty hard to understand why Tory members believe much that they do. Why should Boris be any different?
> I don't understand what Tory members see in Boris Johnson.
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-crushes-leadership-rivals-in-poll-of-tory-members-6x5fcrcx3
Outside of David Cameron he's the only Con leader to actually win a major election contest (twice) since 1992?
However cost would be nominal vs actually paying a third party. If Wetherspoon didn’t charge then they didn’t charge
But I would say a major factor is he cheers them up.
Mike just posted a SPIN screenshot showing a sell price of 7.2, which is even better value. Personally I’m staying away from the spreads, with the polling so volatile.
I think the key to this election is going to be turnout, especially of postal votes which are already heading back and tend to turnout more reliably than on-the-day votes. If the oldies really are deserting the Tories for Brexit en masse, they could get 35% and Eagles could win his bet on the Tories getting under 10%. And Dan Hannan could be sitting in Brussels all on his own.
If you want to state fund your parties have the balls to argue for if
> I don't understand what Tory members see in Boris Johnson.
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-crushes-leadership-rivals-in-poll-of-tory-members-6x5fcrcx3<;
++++
A winner.
Just saw that OAC is arguing for usury laws.
Usury laws fuck up the financial system worse than rental controls mess with property.
> Big gap opening up between Boris for Leader (2.9) and Boris for PM (4.0). Understandable if the rumours that c. 20 MPs would resign are correct. <
+++
I find it very very hard to believe 20 Tory MPs would resign and bring down the government, thereby risking - very severely, if you look at the polls - a Corbyn premiership, with all the horror that entails.
Presumably they would resign from the government but support it like the DUP, in VONCs etc.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > The point of legislating in October would presumably be to compel the Executive to request another extension similarly as in April.
> > >
> > > That is always an option of course. But the real question is whether the EU will grant it.
> >
> > I find it hard to believe that the EU would inflict a hard border on Ireland - by refusing an extension - given how hard they've negotiated for the backstop in order to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
>
> Why would a No Deal Brexit PM (which it is my working assumption the Tory party will inflict on us) seek an extension?
>
> If no extension is sought, the EU will have no say in the matter
>
>
Well, yes, but that is why Parliament will attempt to pass legislation to compel the Executive to request an extension...
> > @Charles said:
>
> > Nice job Lib Dems!
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > https://order-order.com/2019/05/17/lib-dems-win-council-first-time-give-massive-pay-rise/
>
> >
>
> > Bet you the extra money gets “donated” to the party by the councillors
>
>
>
> That's the standard play as I understand it
>
>
>
> Personally I think it stinks
>
> It should be illegal
>
> If you want to state fund your parties have the balls to argue for if
Interesting the trivia people get hooked on when suffering withdrawal symptoms from Jeremy Kyle.
If that happens then Mrs May’s feet won’t touch the ground as she leaves Downing St a week on Monday.
I’m a great believer in transparency
> A not entirely innocent question. How many European Parliament seats does the brains trust think that the Conservatives will win next week?
>
> My workings are as follows. ...
> Eight looks the maximum unless current polling is very wrong. If YouGov's latest poll is right, they might be down to one.
>
> All of which suggests that they are a sell on SPIN even at 6.4.
Half their vote share from 2014 would be ~12% which seems reasonable.
Then, no seats where they won one seat in 2014, one seat where they won two and three seats in total across East England and South East England where they won three in each. Total of 8.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > Tory MPs (and members) might want to look at this.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545 <
>
> +++++
>
> I think the only thing Tory members care about (Brexit aside) is can the new leader beat Corbyn. Because the advent of a Corbyn government will make Brexit look like a day in the park.
>
> And looking at all the deeply mediocre contenders, at the front of the pack, I would agree with them: Boris has the best chance of beating JC.
>
>
My guess is that Johnson is the Tory leader most likely to keep the 2017 Labour voting coalition together.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > I don't understand what Tory members see in Boris Johnson.
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-crushes-leadership-rivals-in-poll-of-tory-members-6x5fcrcx3<;
>
> ++++
>
> A winner.
Well he won 2 mayoral elections, his constituency twice and EU ref. Hard to disagree.
I had thought the Lib Dems might be a buy but 12 is quite a tough number for them to improve on - that's one seat everywhere bar the NE, with a second in London & the SE.
>
> My guess is that Johnson is the Tory leader most likely to keep the 2017 Labour voting coalition together.
A lot depends on how Farage responds, and how much Brexit Party support goes back to the Tories.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > Tory MPs (and members) might want to look at this.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1129422389354348545 <
> >
> > +++++
> >
> > I think the only thing Tory members care about (Brexit aside) is can the new leader beat Corbyn. Because the advent of a Corbyn government will make Brexit look like a day in the park.
> >
> > And looking at all the deeply mediocre contenders, at the front of the pack, I would agree with them: Boris has the best chance of beating JC.
> >
> >
>
> My guess is that Johnson is the Tory leader most likely to keep the 2017 Labour voting coalition together. <
++++
You could well be right. Fact is, we are both guessing. But even if you are right that still means Boris would win a plurality (if he repeats T May's result) and the Tories would stay in power. And the Corbyn apocalypse would be averted.
Personally, I agree with A Meeks Esq - I think the Tories should go for one of the younger women: Truss, McVey, Mordaunt.
But I doubt they will look beyond Bojo, Raab or Gove, and possibly Javid.
1) fund an individual MP
2) fund an individual party
3) fund an individual cause.
Rules are different for each category, for referendums than elections, and proximity to the election. One interesting thing is that although donations above a certain amount have to be reported, the deadline for reporting them is not necessarily before the election.
If I have got anything wrong, apols, but it was from memory.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > I don't understand what Tory members see in Boris Johnson.
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-crushes-leadership-rivals-in-poll-of-tory-members-6x5fcrcx3<;
>
> ++++
>
> A winner.
Are these con home or Proven tory members...????
https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1113355502925303808
> O/T
>
> Just saw that OAC is arguing for usury laws.
>
> Usury laws fuck up the financial system worse than rental controls mess with property.
Usury is the charging of excessive interest, so something that the Conservative government here has acted against. Very sensible laws if set with reasonable threshold.
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1129171776192303105?s=19
> From memory, electoral law says you can:
>
> 1) fund an individual MP
> 2) fund an individual party
> 3) fund an individual cause.
>
> Rules are different for each category, for referendums than elections, and proximity to the election. One interesting thing is that although donations above a certain amount have to be reported, the deadline for reporting them is not necessarily before the election.
>
> If I have got anything wrong, apols, but it was from memory.
>
> This is tripped up by the rules on shadow support - in naming the Brexit party they have caught themselves inside the spending limits
I am no fan of spending huge amounts on campaigns - in effect trying to buy results - but in this age of social media is it not the case that these laws are now horribly outdated.
I am not sure I can get worried about the Donkeys posters when a single tweet or facebook posting by a celebrity endorsing one campaign/political party or another is probably (unfortunately) having far more impact. If someone has a million followers and decides to tell them all they should be voting Labour or Brexit or SNP I suspect the influence of that is at least equal to if not far exceeding that of the posters. And the cost of said tweet is a fraction of a penny.
How do you legislate for that?
Should we even be legislating for that?
> OOPS
>
> https://order-order.com/2019/05/17/anti-brexit-billboard-campaign-massive-apparent-breach-electoral-law/
>
> Or do we only care about leave spending?
Surely only the money spent in the campaign period counts?
I have bunged them a few quid. Great stuff.
I did rather enjoy the photo of some of Farages walkers sitting and having a brew on one of @byDonkeys billboard lorries. How very civilised and British!
https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1129283466531676160
It feels like every Lib Dem on twitter has retweeted my original tweet.
Aside from indicating that Tory members are softer in the head than the general population, this is potentially electorally significant. LibDems, Change UK and Greens (not to mention Farage) could all benefit from a significant number of Tory supporters refusing to vote for a Boris-led Tory Party. Makes me wonder if Cable should reconsider stepping down - if there's a general election in the autumn he could do rather well in picking up those disaffected Tories.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > Brexit party coming after the Tories too:
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1129417820138295298
> >
> > This is a Brexit Party advert - not a PPB. Ditto the attack on Labour yesterday. <
>
> ++++
>
> It's not bad, as these things go, but it's not remotely as powerful as their advert attacking Labour. Perhaps that says something in itself - the BXP's appeal to the Leaver WWCs is more potent, in the long run, than their appeal to middle class Tory Leavers.
>
>
How many people are likely to view these adverts - to be found on social media rather than television?
> OOPS
>
> https://order-order.com/2019/05/17/anti-brexit-billboard-campaign-massive-apparent-breach-electoral-law/
>
> Or do we only care about leave spending?
It's one of those irregular verbs.
I'm flexible,
You bend the rules,
He's being charged under the provisions of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendum Act (2000).