Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Following the firmer news on TMay’s exit Johnson declares that
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Following the firmer news on TMay’s exit Johnson declares that he’s running to 27% favourite in the betting
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
FPT
@Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1129045108714856449
As she'll presumably stay on as PM during a leadership contest she should pass Brown (2 years and 319 days) The Duke Of Wellington (2 years and 320 days) and Neville Chamberlain (2 years and 348 days)
James Callaghan at 3 years 29 days and Henry Addington at 3 years and 54 days look do'able if it goes to a members ballot but the Duke Of Portland 3 years and 82 days looks safe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure
not Boris
Knowing how previous contests have gone, I'm sure some MPs are considering how a tactical vote could keep Boris off the final ballot, but I can't see how there's any way to stop the next leader being either Boris or a right-winger.
> Oh no
>
> not Boris
Time to suspend all those Tory members who are voting for a party other than their own.
> Given the favourite never gets the crown In Con elections Raab looks well placed here.
>
>
> FPT
>
>
>
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1129045108714856449
>
> As she'll presumably stay on as PM during a leadership contest she should pass Brown (2 years and 319 days) The Duke Of Wellington (2 years and 320 days) and Neville Chamberlain (2 years and 348 days)
>
> James Callaghan at 3 years 29 days and Henry Addington at 3 years and 54 days look do'able if it goes to a members ballot but the Duke Of Portland 3 years and 82 days looks safe.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure
Isn't this just willy waving?
Why is the Second Reading relevant? Does she believe only she can steer it through? Cos form suggests otherwise.
> Isn't Boris way ahead among the party rank and file? I'd say it's pretty clear that if he makes the final two he wins, unless the opponent is a proper right-winger like Raab who might give him a run for his money.
>
> Knowing how previous contests have gone, I'm sure some MPs are considering how a tactical vote could keep Boris off the final ballot, but I can't see how there's any way to stop the next leader being either Boris or a right-winger.
I met a former CON MP on the train to London this morning who assured me that Johnson had nothing like the support amongst the membership than is widely assumed.
> A timetable for a timetable just about sums May up. "So incompetent so is unable to resign properly".
> Why is the Second Reading relevant? Does she believe only she can steer it through? Cos form suggests otherwise.
They will negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement for Mrs May but never actually be able to pass it.
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> > Oh no
> >
> > not Boris
>
> Time to suspend all those Tory members who are voting for a party other than their own.
And my wife and I voted for my party and have votes in the succession and they will not be going to Boris. If he wins so be it but we will not be the cause
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> > Oh no
> >
> > not Boris
>
> Time to suspend all those Tory members who are voting for a party other than their own.
Not many left to vote then. Plus, rumours are that they are skint. Need the dues.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @Alanbrooke said:
> > > Oh no
> > >
> > > not Boris
> >
> > Time to suspend all those Tory members who are voting for a party other than their own.
>
> And my wife and I voted for my party and have votes in the succession and they will not be going to Boris. If he wins so be it but we will not be the cause
+1
Give me strength!
> Labour could now sow mayhem by abstaining on the second reading...
Or by calling for a VoNC in the government.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > A timetable for a timetable just about sums May up. "So incompetent so is unable to resign properly".
> > Why is the Second Reading relevant? Does she believe only she can steer it through? Cos form suggests otherwise.
>
> They will negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement for Mrs May but never actually be able to pass it.
>
>
May is becoming reminsicent of Monty Python's The Death of Mary Queen of Scots.
"Take that, Mary Queen of Scots!"
*crash, bang, crash, smash, wallop, bang....*
Long pause.
"I think she's dead."
"Noo I'm noooooot....."
> Labour could now sow mayhem by abstaining on the second reading...
And pay a big price from the peoples vote part of the party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-48292972
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Given the favourite never gets the crown In Con elections Raab looks well placed here.
> >
> >
> > FPT
> >
> >
> >
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1129045108714856449
> >
> > As she'll presumably stay on as PM during a leadership contest she should pass Brown (2 years and 319 days) The Duke Of Wellington (2 years and 320 days) and Neville Chamberlain (2 years and 348 days)
> >
> > James Callaghan at 3 years 29 days and Henry Addington at 3 years and 54 days look do'able if it goes to a members ballot but the Duke Of Portland 3 years and 82 days looks safe.
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure
>
> Isn't this just willy waving?
Or in other words, optics are important
> Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> Give me strength!
The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > A timetable for a timetable just about sums May up. "So incompetent so is unable to resign properly".
> > Why is the Second Reading relevant? Does she believe only she can steer it through? Cos form suggests otherwise.
>
> They will negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement for Mrs May but never actually be able to pass it.
>
>
> Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> Give me strength!
It is unlikely but with everything Brexit who knows the outcome.
No deal is still on the table as is revoke.
> > @Dadge said:
> > Isn't Boris way ahead among the party rank and file? I'd say it's pretty clear that if he makes the final two he wins, unless the opponent is a proper right-winger like Raab who might give him a run for his money.
> >
> > Knowing how previous contests have gone, I'm sure some MPs are considering how a tactical vote could keep Boris off the final ballot, but I can't see how there's any way to stop the next leader being either Boris or a right-winger.
>
> I met a former CON MP on the train to London this morning who assured me that Johnson had nothing like the support amongst the membership than is widely assumed.
Boris beat Hunt 61% to 39%, Javid 61% to 30%, Gove 57% to 34% and Raab 46% to 39% in the latest ConHome Tory members' poll, so that MP is talking rubbish
https://www.conservativehome.com/author/paul-goodman/page/2
> > @dixiedean said:
> > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> > Give me strength!
>
> The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
>
> It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
I like that comment and it made me chuckle
I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @Dadge said:
> > > Isn't Boris way ahead among the party rank and file? I'd say it's pretty clear that if he makes the final two he wins, unless the opponent is a proper right-winger like Raab who might give him a run for his money.
> > >
> > > Knowing how previous contests have gone, I'm sure some MPs are considering how a tactical vote could keep Boris off the final ballot, but I can't see how there's any way to stop the next leader being either Boris or a right-winger.
> >
> > I met a former CON MP on the train to London this morning who assured me that Johnson had nothing like the support amongst the membership than is widely assumed.
>
> Boris beat Hunt 61% to 39%, Javid 61% to 30%, Gove 57% to 34% and Raab 46% to 39% in the latest ConHome Tory members' poll, so that MP is talking rubbish
>
>
> https://www.conservativehome.com/author/paul-goodman/page/2
If pre-campaign polls were reliable, Cameron would have won the referendum and Theresa May the 2017 election.
https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
On topic, keep laying the favourite.
> Given the favourite never gets the crown In Con elections Raab looks well placed here.
>
>
> FPT
>
>
>
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1129045108714856449
>
> As she'll presumably stay on as PM during a leadership contest she should pass Brown (2 years and 319 days) The Duke Of Wellington (2 years and 320 days) and Neville Chamberlain (2 years and 348 days)
>
> James Callaghan at 3 years 29 days and Henry Addington at 3 years and 54 days look do'able if it goes to a members ballot but the Duke Of Portland 3 years and 82 days looks safe.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure
This is getting a bit like the last days of John Major where his team and Norma were mainly interested in ensuring he passed a few more PMs in tenure before his departure, Brown was much the same.
> "Hawksmoor Manchester: Diners given £4,500 red wine by mistake"
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-48292972
>
> How come that never happens to me? I’m clearly destined never to try a Le Pin
>
Would you have ordered the £260 bottle in the first place?
> > @Sandpit said:
> > "Hawksmoor Manchester: Diners given £4,500 red wine by mistake"
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-48292972
> >
> > How come that never happens to me? I’m clearly destined never to try a Le Pin
> >
>
> Would you have ordered the £260 bottle in the first place?
I'm happy with £3 bottles from Lidl.
> The fact a Comres poll at the weekend had the Tory voteshare rising from just 19% now to 26%, just 1% behind Labour, under a Boris leadership and the Brexit Party voteshare halving from 20% to just 10% shows how crucial electing Boris could be if the Tories are to have a chance of winning the next general election
>
> https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
I know you are convinced about Boris but he needs to appeal beyond conhome members and a lot will depend on how he comes across in the hustings v the many other candidates. If he wins the contest fairly I will support him but I will not vote for him in the election
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> > > Give me strength!
> >
> > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
> >
> > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
>
> I like that comment and it made me chuckle
>
> I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
>
>
Congratulations to you and Mrs Big G.
> @MikeSmithson said:
> > @Dadge said:
> > Isn't Boris way ahead among the party rank and file? I'd say it's pretty clear that if he makes the final two he wins, unless the opponent is a proper right-winger like Raab who might give him a run for his money.
> >
> > Knowing how previous contests have gone, I'm sure some MPs are considering how a tactical vote could keep Boris off the final ballot, but I can't see how there's any way to stop the next leader being either Boris or a right-winger.
>
> I met a former CON MP on the train to London this morning who assured me that Johnson had nothing like the support amongst the membership than is widely assumed. </blockquote>
Osborne would say that.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> > > > Give me strength!
> > >
> > > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
> > >
> > > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
> >
> > I like that comment and it made me chuckle
> >
> > I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
> >
> >
>
> Congratulations to you and Mrs Big G.
Thanks Dixie
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @dixiedean said:
>
> > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
>
> > > Give me strength!
>
> >
>
> > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
>
> >
>
> > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
>
>
>
> I like that comment and it made me chuckle
>
>
>
> I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
>
> Wow, congratulations on 55 years. Some of us haven’t made 5 yet!
Thank you. The years have flown by and we have so many blessings
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > @Sandpit said:
> > > "Hawksmoor Manchester: Diners given £4,500 red wine by mistake"
> > >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-48292972
> > >
> > > How come that never happens to me? I’m clearly destined never to try a Le Pin
> > >
> >
> > Would you have ordered the £260 bottle in the first place?
>
> I'm happy with £3 bottles from Lidl.
£3 ? Which Lidl is that ? I'm having to fork out £4.29.
> > @Sandpit said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > > > @dixiedean said:
> >
> > > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> >
> > > > Give me strength!
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
> >
> >
> >
> > I like that comment and it made me chuckle
> >
> >
> >
> > I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
> >
> > Wow, congratulations on 55 years. Some of us haven’t made 5 yet!
>
> Thank you. The years have flown by and we have so many blessings
Many congrats Big_G.
It is important to stand back occasionally and appreciate the truly important things in life.
On the other hand, Jacob Rees-Mogg has been doing the rubber-chicken circuit trying to gather support for Boris, and that might have an effect. In addition, as James Forsyth in the Spectator points out, the fact that the polls are so bad for the Tories at the moment may tempt both MPs and members to think they need the kind of Trumpesque shake-up which Boris might provide in contrast to a more solid and serious contender.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/cometh-the-hour-boris-johnson-may-be-the-tories-best-hope/
> Please let it not be Boris. I know plenty like him, even though he is a latecomer to supporting the dreaded WA and thus proving he is not ultra committed to no deal, and is a bit of an idiot for only at last realising it was still better than no Brexit, but there's just something about him I find particularly repellant. It was not always thus, but over time his appeal has dimmed considerably for me and he just comes across as a not very bright bullshit merchant.
Boris and Trump at international summits is something to think about.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Sandpit said:
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > >
> > > > > @dixiedean said:
> > >
> > > > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> > >
> > > > > Give me strength!
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I like that comment and it made me chuckle
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
> > >
> > > Wow, congratulations on 55 years. Some of us haven’t made 5 yet!
> >
> > Thank you. The years have flown by and we have so many blessings
>
> Many congrats Big_G.
>
> It is important to stand back occasionally and appreciate the truly important things in life.
Thank you and yes it is
> > @HYUFD said:
> > The fact a Comres poll at the weekend had the Tory voteshare rising from just 19% now to 26%, just 1% behind Labour, under a Boris leadership and the Brexit Party voteshare halving from 20% to just 10% shows how crucial electing Boris could be if the Tories are to have a chance of winning the next general election
> >
> > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
>
> I know you are convinced about Boris but he needs to appeal beyond conhome members and a lot will depend on how he comes across in the hustings v the many other candidates. If he wins the contest fairly I will support him but I will not vote for him in the election
Maybe but BigG I fear the Tory Party is now in such a crisis if it does not pick Boris it faces an existential crisis that could threaten its very existence, I could easily see a Hunt, Javid or Gove led Tory Party not only failing to win the next general election but actually falling to third behind Farage's Brexit Party now.
Raab might avoid that fate but I still don't think he will beat Corbyn. The Tory Party urgently need a leader with charisma who actually believes in Brexit and Boris fits the bill, even passing the Withdrawal Agreement won't necessarily save them I think unless they have a leader who meets those criteria.
Congratulations on your anniversary
> This is getting a bit like the last days of John Major where his team and Norma were mainly interested in ensuring he passed a few more PMs in tenure before his departure, Brown was much the same.
>
-------------------------
He must have been furious the talks with Con-LD concluded so swiftly then, 2 more days would have seen him jump past the Iron duke.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > @Dadge said:
> > > > Isn't Boris way ahead among the party rank and file? I'd say it's pretty clear that if he makes the final two he wins, unless the opponent is a proper right-winger like Raab who might give him a run for his money.
> > > >
> > > > Knowing how previous contests have gone, I'm sure some MPs are considering how a tactical vote could keep Boris off the final ballot, but I can't see how there's any way to stop the next leader being either Boris or a right-winger.
> > >
> > > I met a former CON MP on the train to London this morning who assured me that Johnson had nothing like the support amongst the membership than is widely assumed.
> >
> > Boris beat Hunt 61% to 39%, Javid 61% to 30%, Gove 57% to 34% and Raab 46% to 39% in the latest ConHome Tory members' poll, so that MP is talking rubbish
> >
> >
> > https://www.conservativehome.com/author/paul-goodman/page/2
>
> If pre-campaign polls were reliable, Cameron would have won the referendum and Theresa May the 2017 election.
ConHome's polling was spot on in the 2005 Tory leadership election, the last time the members were consulted, correctly predicting Cameron would win and his victory margin
> I think the Tories need Boris now, he's the only one who can take on Farage as the darling of the media. He can also overshadow the Brexit party with his own right wing populism. Someone like Raab would probably struggle to make an impact.
Agreed, excellent points
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > > @Sandpit said:
> > > > "Hawksmoor Manchester: Diners given £4,500 red wine by mistake"
> > > >
> > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-48292972
> > > >
> > > > How come that never happens to me? I’m clearly destined never to try a Le Pin
> > > >
> > >
> > > Would you have ordered the £260 bottle in the first place?
> >
> > I'm happy with £3 bottles from Lidl.
>
> £3 ? Which Lidl is that ? I'm having to fork out £4.29.
This one is £3.26.
https://www.lidl.co.uk/en/Red-Wine-3660.htm?articleId=9980
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> > Oh no
> >
> > not Boris
>
> Time to suspend all those Tory members who are voting for a party other than their own.
--------------------
Unfortunately it is hard in most cases to prove that someone is definitely doing that. But like with the halcyon days of UKIP plenty of Tory MPs and voters clearly wish they were in the Brexit Party but don't have the guts (yet) to just do it already. And Farage has the positive of being able to effectively control or hugely influence vast chunks of the Tory party without having the hassle of officially doing so.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > The fact a Comres poll at the weekend had the Tory voteshare rising from just 19% now to 26%, just 1% behind Labour, under a Boris leadership and the Brexit Party voteshare halving from 20% to just 10% shows how crucial electing Boris could be if the Tories are to have a chance of winning the next general election
> > >
> > > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
> >
> > I know you are convinced about Boris but he needs to appeal beyond conhome members and a lot will depend on how he comes across in the hustings v the many other candidates. If he wins the contest fairly I will support him but I will not vote for him in the election
>
> Maybe but BigG I fear the Tory Party is now in such a crisis if it does not pick Boris it faces an existential crisis that could threaten its very existence, I could easily see a Hunt, Javid or Gove led Tory Party not only failing to win the next general election but actually falling to third behind Farage's Brexit Party now.
>
>
> Raab might avoid that fate but I still don't think he will beat Corbyn. The Tory Party urgently need a leader with charisma who actually believes in Brexit and Boris fits the bill, even passing the Withdrawal Agreement won't necessarily save them I think unless they have a leader who meets those criteria
Raab has no charisma at all and you do seem to ignore the ladies. I would not be surprised to see a third woman conservative pm and the first female COE
This is a very fluid political climate and neither can have any certainty on the future political makeup of the UK
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @dixiedean said:
>
> > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
>
> > > Give me strength!
>
> >
>
> > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
>
> >
>
> > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
>
>
>
> I like that comment and it made me chuckle
>
>
>
> I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
>
> Oh, some happy news. Congratulations and I'm sure you'll have a nice time.
Thank you
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > The fact a Comres poll at the weekend had the Tory voteshare rising from just 19% now to 26%, just 1% behind Labour, under a Boris leadership and the Brexit Party voteshare halving from 20% to just 10% shows how crucial electing Boris could be if the Tories are to have a chance of winning the next general election
> > >
> > > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
> >
> > I know you are convinced about Boris but he needs to appeal beyond conhome members and a lot will depend on how he comes across in the hustings v the many other candidates. If he wins the contest fairly I will support him but I will not vote for him in the election
>
> Maybe but BigG I fear the Tory Party is now in such a crisis if it does not pick Boris it faces an existential crisis that could threaten its very existence, I could easily see a Hunt, Javid or Gove led Tory Party not only failing to win the next general election but actually falling to third behind Farage's Brexit Party now.
>
>
> Raab might avoid that fate but I still don't think he will beat Corbyn. The Tory Party urgently need a leader with charisma who actually believes in Brexit and Boris fits the bill, even passing the Withdrawal Agreement won't necessarily save them I think unless they have a leader who meets those criteria.
>
>
> Congratulations on your anniversary
Thank you Hyufd
> > @junius said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > > > @Sandpit said:
> > > > > "Hawksmoor Manchester: Diners given £4,500 red wine by mistake"
> > > > >
> > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-48292972
> > > > >
> > > > > How come that never happens to me? I’m clearly destined never to try a Le Pin
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Would you have ordered the £260 bottle in the first place?
> > >
> > > I'm happy with £3 bottles from Lidl.
> >
> > £3 ? Which Lidl is that ? I'm having to fork out £4.29.
>
> This one is £3.26.
>
> https://www.lidl.co.uk/en/Red-Wine-3660.htm?articleId=9980
£4.13 in Scotland, where the nanny state punishes alcoholics, but only if they'e poor.
> ConHome's polling was spot on in the 2005 Tory leadership election, the last time the members were consulted, correctly predicting Cameron would win and his victory margin
>
> Your faith in one data point, from 14 years ago, under completely different political conditions, when the website was under different management, before Brexit became the defining issue, and when ConHome wasn't taken over by one faction of the party, is one of the wonders of the world.
It is backed up by the scientific polling of Professor Tim Bale of Sussex Uni of Tory members.
His ESRC group commissioned a YouGov poll of Tory members last December which found Boris first on 20% to succeed May, Mogg second on 15% and Davis and Javid tied third on 8% each, followed by Raab on 7% and Hunt on 6%
https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/01/tim-bale-johnson-and-rees-mogg-are-still-in-with-a-shout-in-the-race-to-succeed-may.html.
It is also backed up by a straw poll of my own Association at our AGM with Boris coming top followed by Raab and Leadsom
Edit: and to Mrs Big G.
> Congratulations Big G.
>
> Edit: and to Mrs Big G.
Thank you
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > The fact a Comres poll at the weekend had the Tory voteshare rising from just 19% now to 26%, just 1% behind Labour, under a Boris leadership and the Brexit Party voteshare halving from 20% to just 10% shows how crucial electing Boris could be if the Tories are to have a chance of winning the next general election
> > > >
> > > > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
> > >
> > > I know you are convinced about Boris but he needs to appeal beyond conhome members and a lot will depend on how he comes across in the hustings v the many other candidates. If he wins the contest fairly I will support him but I will not vote for him in the election
> >
> > Maybe but BigG I fear the Tory Party is now in such a crisis if it does not pick Boris it faces an existential crisis that could threaten its very existence, I could easily see a Hunt, Javid or Gove led Tory Party not only failing to win the next general election but actually falling to third behind Farage's Brexit Party now.
> >
> >
> > Raab might avoid that fate but I still don't think he will beat Corbyn. The Tory Party urgently need a leader with charisma who actually believes in Brexit and Boris fits the bill, even passing the Withdrawal Agreement won't necessarily save them I think unless they have a leader who meets those criteria
>
> Raab has no charisma at all and you do seem to ignore the ladies. I would not be surprised to see a third woman conservative pm and the first female COE
>
> This is a very fluid political climate and neither can have any certainty on the future political makeup of the UK
Well Priti Patel or Andrea Leadsom are certainly outside bets too
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > The fact a Comres poll at the weekend had the Tory voteshare rising from just 19% now to 26%, just 1% behind Labour, under a Boris leadership and the Brexit Party voteshare halving from 20% to just 10% shows how crucial electing Boris could be if the Tories are to have a chance of winning the next general election
> > > > >
> > > > > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
> > > >
> > > > I know you are convinced about Boris but he needs to appeal beyond conhome members and a lot will depend on how he comes across in the hustings v the many other candidates. If he wins the contest fairly I will support him but I will not vote for him in the election
> > >
> > > Maybe but BigG I fear the Tory Party is now in such a crisis if it does not pick Boris it faces an existential crisis that could threaten its very existence, I could easily see a Hunt, Javid or Gove led Tory Party not only failing to win the next general election but actually falling to third behind Farage's Brexit Party now.
> > >
> > >
> > > Raab might avoid that fate but I still don't think he will beat Corbyn. The Tory Party urgently need a leader with charisma who actually believes in Brexit and Boris fits the bill, even passing the Withdrawal Agreement won't necessarily save them I think unless they have a leader who meets those criteria
> >
> > Raab has no charisma at all and you do seem to ignore the ladies. I would not be surprised to see a third woman conservative pm and the first female COE
> >
> > This is a very fluid political climate and neither can have any certainty on the future political makeup of the UK
> Well Priti Patel or Andrea Leadsom are certainly outside bets too
>
Penny Mordaunt may enter the mix
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> > > Give me strength!
> >
> > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
> >
> > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
>
> I like that comment and it made me chuckle
>
> I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
>
>
Congratulations to you both. Emerald, I believe. As I'm sure Mrs Big_G will know....!!
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> > > > Give me strength!
> > >
> > > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
> > >
> > > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
> >
> > I like that comment and it made me chuckle
> >
> > I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
> >
> >
>
> Congratulations to you both. Emerald, I believe. As I'm sure Mrs Big_G will know....!!
Thank you and yes she did bless her
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @dixiedean said:
>
> > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
>
> > > Give me strength!
>
> >
>
> > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
>
> >
>
> > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
>
>
>
> I like that comment and it made me chuckle
>
>
>
> I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
>
> Very many congratulations to you both!
Thank you Cyclefree
Sky just announced upto 20 candidates to succeed TM
> Sky just announced upto 20 candidates to succeed TM
----------------------------
Our cup runeth over.
With something unappealing unfortunately. Personally I hope they pick the blandest figure imaginable.
> @Big_G_NorthWales
> > Sky just announced upto 20 candidates to succeed TM
>
> ----------------------------
> Our cup runeth over.
>
> With something unappealing unfortunately. Personally I hope they pick the blandest figure imaginable.
Must be good for betting
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Given the favourite never gets the crown In Con elections Raab looks well placed here.
> >
> >
> > FPT
> >
> >
> >
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1129045108714856449
> >
> > As she'll presumably stay on as PM during a leadership contest she should pass Brown (2 years and 319 days) The Duke Of Wellington (2 years and 320 days) and Neville Chamberlain (2 years and 348 days)
> >
> > James Callaghan at 3 years 29 days and Henry Addington at 3 years and 54 days look do'able if it goes to a members ballot but the Duke Of Portland 3 years and 82 days looks safe.
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure
>
> Isn't this just willy waving?
Isn't that the sum of British politics at the moment?
If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated.
If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two.
Tricky.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> > > Give me strength!
> >
> > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
> >
> > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
>
> I like that comment and it made me chuckle
>
> I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
>
>
Many congratulations. Incidentally, my parents have been married for 42 years and they don't have any grandchildren yet, and it's all my fault.
That’s the way to win friends and influence people.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1129071458360156160/photo/1
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> > > > Give me strength!
> > >
> > > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
> > >
> > > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
> >
> > I like that comment and it made me chuckle
> >
> > I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
> >
> >
>
> Many congratulations. Incidentally, my parents have been married for 42 years and they don't have any grandchildren yet, and it's all my fault.
Thank you and all the very best to you and your family
Also, congrats Big_G!
> Difficult call this for the Tories.
>
>
>
> If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated.
>
>
>
> If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two.
>
>
>
> Tricky.
>
> If they want a useless git as PM why don’t they vote for Corbyn.
----------------------------
They want a useless git wearing the right tribal badge. obviously. It cannot be because they want specific policies, because he'd say or do anything (he certainly is not a consistent Brexit true believer), and is not astoundingly competent either.
> Difficult call this for the Tories.
>
> If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated.
>
> If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two.
>
> Tricky.
The hustings may well produce surprises including Boris being eclipsed
> I met a former CON MP on the train to London this morning who assured me that Johnson had nothing like the support amongst the membership than is widely assumed.
>
> That's my impression. In fact as I've said before a surprising number of party members, of all wings of the party, go out of their way to say how much they don't want Boris to be leader.
>
> On the other hand, Jacob Rees-Mogg has been doing the rubber-chicken circuit trying to gather support for Boris, and that might have an effect. In addition, as James Forsyth in the Spectator points out, the fact that the polls are so bad for the Tories at the moment may tempt both MPs and members to think they need the kind of Trumpesque shake-up which Boris might provide in contrast to a more solid and serious contender.
>
> https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/cometh-the-hour-boris-johnson-may-be-the-tories-best-hope/
I sincerely hope that isn't wishful thinking.
> So now that the 1922 is forcing May out we have to ask... what in Christ's name took them so long?
>
> Also, congrats Big_G!
Thank you
> So instead of dealing with Brexit the Tories are wasting the time graciously granted to us by the EU.
>
> That’s the way to win friends and influence people.
Maybe having a new PM will provide a means by which some MPs can compromise with reality. The Boris Backstop may prove more popular than Theresa May's. <. / clutching at straws .>
> So instead of dealing with Brexit the Tories are wasting the time graciously granted to us by the EU.
>
> That’s the way to win friends and influence people.
Obviously we will be no further forward by 31 October, so again our fate will be in the hands of the EU27. They will have to decide whether to push the UK over the cliff or grant a further extension.
Really they should put parliament on the spot and demand it choose between revoke and no deal. But I think a further extension is probably more likely. Not a good look for the EU to throw out a member, however stupid they may be.
> A timetable for a timetable just about sums May up. "So incompetent so is unable to resign properly".
> Why is the Second Reading relevant? Does she believe only she can steer it through? Cos form suggests otherwise.
That's a great line, that. Is that the SNP? I have never rated Blackford, but every now and then he pulls something fantastic out.
> Difficult call this for the Tories.
>
> If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated.
>
> If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two.
>
> Tricky.
Boris will probably implode during the contest.
They waited 2 years and 320 days before giving Wellington the boot?
Yes, but reportedly if it is defeated, the timetable is straight away - which removes any remaining incentive for the ERGer tendency to vote for it.
In any event, felicitations to Big_G and Mrs._G !
> > @dixiedean said:
> > A timetable for a timetable just about sums May up. "So incompetent so is unable to resign properly".
> > Why is the Second Reading relevant? Does she believe only she can steer it through? Cos form suggests otherwise.
>
> That's a great line, that. Is that the SNP? I have never rated Blackford, but every now and then he pulls something fantastic out.
I think I used something similar on here within the last week.
> Congrats to Mr and Mrs G
Thanks Gin and TM on her way. It is time
> Difficult call this for the Tories.
>
>
>
> If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated.
>
>
>
> If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two.
>
>
>
> Tricky.
>
> If they want a useless git as PM why don’t they vote for Corbyn.
If we stick to the rule that every PM since Major has been worse than their predecessor, presumably the logic would be to take Boris next and Corbyn afterwards?
> @Richard_Nabavi said:
> ConHome's polling was spot on in the 2005 Tory leadership election, the last time the members were consulted, correctly predicting Cameron would win and his victory margin
>
> Your faith in one data point, from 14 years ago, under completely different political conditions, when the website was under different management, before Brexit became the defining issue, and when ConHome wasn't taken over by one faction of the party, is one of the wonders of the world.
And if HY wants to be taken more seriously on this site he really needs to stop describing voodoo self-selected surveys as polling.
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1129054384069980161?s=21
> "We have agreed to meet to decide the timetable for the election of a new leader of the Conservative party as soon as the second reading has occurred and that will take place regardless of what the vote is on the second reading – whether it passes or whether it fails...”
>
> Yes, but reportedly if it is defeated, the timetable is straight away - which removes any remaining incentive for the ERGer tendency to vote for it.
>
> In any event, felicitations to Big_G and Mrs._G !
Thank you so much
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> > > > > Give me strength!
> > > >
> > > > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
> > > >
> > > > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
> > >
> > > I like that comment and it made me chuckle
> > >
> > > I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Congratulations to you both. Emerald, I believe. As I'm sure Mrs Big_G will know....!!
>
> Thank you and yes she did bless her
Many congratulations Mr & Mrs G. 55 years is an achievement. I trust you've a suitable celebration planned.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> > > > > > Give me strength!
> > > > >
> > > > > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
> > > > >
> > > > > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
> > > >
> > > > I like that comment and it made me chuckle
> > > >
> > > > I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > Congratulations to you both. Emerald, I believe. As I'm sure Mrs Big_G will know....!!
> >
> > Thank you and yes she did bless her
>
> Many congratulations Mr & Mrs G. 55 years is an achievement. I trust you've a suitable celebration planned.
Thank you OKC
This is my entry on my facebook page today
On this day 55 years ago Jan and I got married at St Geraldine's Church in Lossiemouth and we have received so many blessings over the years including 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family. Each day we marvel at our good fortune and thank the 'Good Lord' for his blessings. Today, as we have all week, been in the garden making good use of the exercise and marvelling at the various birds nesting either in our garden or nearby including, robins, coal tits, sparrows, starlings, collar doves, pigeons and of course the raucous cry of seagulls who have pitched camp in a roof nearby.
Jans poppies are spectacular this year as shown in the photo. Jan and I want to thank everyone for their kind wishes on our anniversary. Thank you
The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
> £4.13 in Scotland, where the nanny state punishes alcoholics, but only if they'e poor.
On the upside they'll get free prescriptions for all the alcohol related illnesses that'll be their companions unto death.