The Sky News Report about Birmingham schools and the protests against relationship education is truly terrifying. We must not let religious fanatics undermine the great advances we have made in this country in the last few decades.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > A timetable for a timetable just about sums May up. "So incompetent so is unable to resign properly". > > > Why is the Second Reading relevant? Does she believe only she can steer it through? Cos form suggests otherwise. > > > > That's a great line, that. Is that the SNP? I have never rated Blackford, but every now and then he pulls something fantastic out. > > I think I used something similar on here within the last week.
> As she'll presumably stay on as PM during a leadership contest she should pass Brown (2 years and 319 days) The Duke Of Wellington (2 years and 320 days) and Neville Chamberlain (2 years and 348 days)
They waited 2 years and 320 days before giving Wellington the boot?
That was indeed the time it took for him to meet his Prime Ministerial Waterloo.
> @Casino_Royale said: > So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons. > > The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
----------- Makes sense - they'll want a nice long contest going out to the members over the summer anyway, nothing Brexit related will happen until after that is all sorted, so may as well stay on until then.
--------------------- > @solarflare said: > If Labour are "a party of remain" they're not a very good one at it. -------------------- We might end up remaining, and most of their voters will be behind that push, so it will work well enough even if the leadership are half hearted about it.
She has at least neutralised two intermediate obstacles - the humiliation that awaits the Tories next Thursday (Sunday) and the special EGM of constituency parties, both of which can be batted off pending the vote on the WAIB.
> > Boris will probably implode during the contest.
Which poses an interesting question about who Candidate No 2 is.
I can see the hard core being content with an utterly ‘unacceptable’ Remainer being on the poll with Boris, just to make sure their man comes out on top - if you’re a Leaver and you want BoJo, you’d calculate he’d have an easier ride against Rudd. But what if that happens and then Bozza is forced to pull out before the members vote because the Mirror has pics of him doing something inappropriate (or whatever)?
> @Casino_Royale said: > So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons. > > The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
And how do they sort out brexit it’s only three weeks to go?
> On this day 55 years ago Jan and I got married at St Geraldine's Church in Lossiemouth and we have received so many blessings over the years including 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family. Each day we marvel at our good fortune and thank the 'Good Lord' for his blessings. Today, as we have all week, been in the garden making good use of the exercise and marvelling at the various birds nesting either in our garden or nearby including, robins, coal tits, sparrows, starlings, collar doves, pigeons and of course the raucous cry of seagulls who have pitched camp in a roof nearby. > > Jans poppies are spectacular this year as shown in the photo. Jan and I want to thank everyone for their kind wishes on our anniversary. Thank you
That's lovely, BigG - many thanbks for telling us about it, and a very happy time still to come.
> @nichomar said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons. > > > > The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October. > > And how do they sort out brexit it’s only three weeks to go?
----------------- They don't. The new leader will be a no deal supporter, and they will hope no extension will be granted after parliament either forces one, or forces a GE.
> @Casino_Royale said: > So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons. > > The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
Theresa will probably try to play it long but I suspect the 1922 will have other ideas.
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > Difficult call this for the Tories. > > If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated. > > If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two. > > Tricky.
Easy for them to justify it to themselves if they cannot stand Boris. They're trying to hold the party together, prevent more MPs crossing the floor as has been mooted should Johnson win. I imagine, thought I don't know, that a few Tory MPs believe the membership needs reigning in. There's clearly a subset of them who are utterly and madly unreasonable. And if Boris is their man, what better way to stick it to them than to pull the rug from under him.
Am I right in thinking it's a secret ballot, too? That helps.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > On this day 55 years ago Jan and I got married at St Geraldine's Church in Lossiemouth and we have received so many blessings over the years including 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family. Each day we marvel at our good fortune and thank the 'Good Lord' for his blessings. Today, as we have all week, been in the garden making good use of the exercise and marvelling at the various birds nesting either in our garden or nearby including, robins, coal tits, sparrows, starlings, collar doves, pigeons and of course the raucous cry of seagulls who have pitched camp in a roof nearby. > > > > Jans poppies are spectacular this year as shown in the photo. Jan and I want to thank everyone for their kind wishes on our anniversary. Thank you > > That's lovely, BigG - many thanbks for telling us about it, and a very happy time still to come. >
Thanks Nick. It is one of life's pleasures to watch nature on full display. I missed out the blackbirds who are also nesting in our garden
> @ah009 said: > > As she'll presumably stay on as PM during a leadership contest she should pass Brown (2 years and 319 days) The Duke Of Wellington (2 years and 320 days) and Neville Chamberlain (2 years and 348 days) > > They waited 2 years and 320 days before giving Wellington the boot?
> @ah009 said: > > @dixiedean said: > > A timetable for a timetable just about sums May up. "So incompetent so is unable to resign properly". > > Why is the Second Reading relevant? Does she believe only she can steer it through? Cos form suggests otherwise. > > That's a great line, that. Is that the SNP? I have never rated Blackford, but every now and then he pulls something fantastic out.
Alternatively "Theresa May must be the only leader in living memory who has tried to fall on her own sword and managed to miss".
Of course that rather misses the point (lol, rofl etc) that Tessy has only wanted to give the impression of falling on her own sword while doing everything she can to avoid it.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons. > > > > The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October. > > Theresa will probably try to play it long but I suspect the 1922 will have other ideas. > > Think we'll have a new PM by mid to late July.
I doubt it. Too many candidates and televised hustings in different parts of the Country then the members ballot. I would expect late August at the earliest
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > Difficult call this for the Tories. > > If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated. > > If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two. > > Tricky. If Boris does not win there is a real risk the Tories will fall to third at the next general election behind both Labour and the Brexit Party, the situation is that bad
> Isn't Boris way ahead among the party rank and file? I'd say it's pretty clear that if he makes the final two he wins, unless the opponent is a proper right-winger like Raab who might give him a run for his money.
>
> Knowing how previous contests have gone, I'm sure some MPs are considering how a tactical vote could keep Boris off the final ballot, but I can't see how there's any way to stop the next leader being either Boris or a right-winger.
I met a former CON MP on the train to London this morning who assured me that Johnson had nothing like the support amongst the membership than is widely assumed.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Peter_the_Punter said: > > Difficult call this for the Tories. > > > > If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated. > > > > If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two. > > > > Tricky. > If Boris does not win there is a real risk the Tories will fall to third at the next general election behind both Labour and the Brexit Party, the situation is that bad >
With respect Hyufd you are blinkered. Boris is not some Godlike figure and others have as good, if not better, chance of uniting the party
Had European elections leaflets today from the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats.
The English Democrats promising 'English jobs for English workers, 'No' to Mass Immigration, 'No' to EU rule, Make St George's Day a Public holiday, English values, English History and English culture in our schools, Fly the English flag from all our public buildings, 'Yes' to English Independence' and say they are 'Putting England First' and are 'Not Left, not Right - Just English!'
On the front is a big 'Proud and English' message with a St George's flag background just in case you had not got the message yet!
> @AndyJS said: > > @solarflare said: > > If Labour are "a party of remain" they're not a very good one at it. > > Corbyn has been a lifelong Eurosceptic.
In his early years he was a Bennite, so understandable.
> > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> > Give me strength!
>
> The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
>
> It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
I like that comment and it made me chuckle
I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
Congratulations, Big_G. That's quite a span.
Ten years for myself and Mrs J this August, although with a couple of scares. One child, who is giggling with his mother downstairs as I type. Grandchildren seem a long way away, although I hope) they'll arrive, and much sooner than I expect!
( A few months ago I realised the little 'un was 4.5 years old, and therefore a quarter of the way to being an adult. That seemed insane.)
> @ah009 said: > > @IanB2 said: > > Back Boris at 4.1 for PM to follow May and lay him as next Tory leader at 3.55 > > And if there's a snap election, Corbyn will nationalise your stake.
Confiscate is more likely along with your pension and your salary
Had European elections leaflets today from the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats.
The English Democrats promising 'English jobs for English workers, 'No' to Mass Immigration, 'No' to EU rule, Make St George's Day a Public holiday, English values, English History and English culture in our schools, Fly the English flag from all our public buildings, 'Yes' to English Independence' and say they are 'Putting England First.'
On the front is a big 'Proud and English' message with a St George's flag background just in case you had not got the message yet!
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Peter_the_Punter said: > > > Difficult call this for the Tories. > > > > > > If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated. > > > > > > If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two. > > > > > > Tricky. > > If Boris does not win there is a real risk the Tories will fall to third at the next general election behind both Labour and the Brexit Party, the situation is that bad > > > > With respect Hyufd you are blinkered. Boris is not some Godlike figure and others have as good, if not better, chance of uniting the party
There are two things at play here: the membership and the wider country. It could be you're both right. Johnson might divide the party but stem the electoral bleeding. That shouldn't normally be possible, but the Conservatives are in a lot of trouble right now so normal political rules mightn't apply.
I personally wouldn't advise Conservatives go for Johnson, but it _might_ work.
The Sky News Report about Birmingham schools and the protests against relationship education is truly terrifying. We must not let religious fanatics undermine the great advances we have made in this country in the last few decades.
All very well saying we must not. We are - by default - allowing this to happen because we lack the courage to face down bullies.
See the discussion on this morning’s thread about the proposed definition of islamophobia.
> @JosiasJessop said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement. > > > > Give me strength! > > > > > > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party. > > > > > > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air. > > > > I like that comment and it made me chuckle > > > > I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family. > > Congratulations, Big_G. That's quite a span. > > Ten years for myself and Mrs J this August, although with a couple of scares. One child, who is giggling with his mother downstairs as I type. Grandchildren seem a long way away, although I hope) they'll arrive, and much sooner than I expect! > > ( A few months ago I realised the little 'un was 4.5 years old, and therefore a quarter of the way to being an adult. That seemed insane.)
Thank you and enjoy your children, they are so precious, and then suddenly one day your first grandchild arrives and you look on in wonder.
My grandson is playing with his Fathers dinky toys in the same room his Father did all those years ago, thanks to his Grandma making sure his Fathers toys were all kept safe and secure here in his childhood home when he flew the nest
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @kyf_100 said: > > > £4.13 in Scotland, where the nanny state punishes alcoholics, but only if they'e poor. > > On the upside they'll get free prescriptions for all the alcohol related illnesses that'll be their companions unto death.
Releasing more of their income for the demon drink!
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > Back Boris at 4.1 for PM to follow May and lay him as next Tory leader at 3.55 > > > > And if there's a snap election, Corbyn will nationalise your stake. > > Confiscate is more likely along with your pension and your salary
Well, I'm not planning to vote for him. But right now, he's set to win* a snap election. And I'm not worried by that prospect: we can do better than him, but on current evidence, we could do worse too.
Does anyone know how the Lib Dem biggest party price has evolved since the General Election? I'm reviewing some old bets, and I had a cheeky few quid on that shortly after the election. But I see that the price is largely the same, which surprised me. Has it drifted and tightened again, or stayed static? Or did I get really crappy odds back then?
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Peter_the_Punter said: > > > Difficult call this for the Tories. > > > > > > If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated. > > > > > > If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two. > > > > > > Tricky. > > If Boris does not win there is a real risk the Tories will fall to third at the next general election behind both Labour and the Brexit Party, the situation is that bad > > > > With respect Hyufd you are blinkered. Boris is not some Godlike figure and others have as good, if not better, chance of uniting the party
Comres at the weekend had it Labour 27%, Brexit Party 20%, Tories 19%.
Under Boris though the pollster had it Labour 27%, Tories 26%, Brexit Party 10%.
So it is that simple for the Tories, be neck and neck with Labour with Boris, or risk falling to third place behind both Labour and the Brexit Party without Boris
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > They used to be the party of white working class kids playing in northern streets, now it’s white Range Rovers in North London > > > > > > https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1129054384069980161 > > > > > > Had European elections leaflets today from the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats. > > > > The English Democrats promising 'English jobs for English workers, 'No' to Mass Immigration, 'No' to EU rule, Make St George's Day a Public holiday, English values, English History and English culture in our schools, Fly the English flag from all our public buildings, 'Yes' to English Independence' and say they are 'Putting England First.' > > > > On the front is a big 'Proud and English' message with a St George's flag background just in case you had not got the message yet! > > ‘Printed in the EU’?
The problem with a Public Holiday on St Georges Day is that in many years we'd have about four four day weeks in April.
> So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons.
>
> The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
And how do they sort out brexit it’s only three weeks to go?
On topic this does indeed seem a very difficult situation. The Tories are in a very, very bad place after the incompetence and paralysis of Mrs May. They have no policies to talk of other than Brexit which they cannot deliver. They seem bereft of talent and ideas. Their solution to pretty much every problem is to spend more money and they think themselves virtuous that this is less than Corbyn is willing to promise.
Membership is falling with a large percentage of what passes for activists intending to vote for another party. This can be habit forming. Tartan Tories started to fall for the charms of Salmond and it was a full generation before they were won back.
What MPs need to think about in this situation is do they dare defy the membership by keeping Boris off the final 2? OTOH do they run the risk of what might be a catastrophic leader?
I think with a heavy heart they should not dare. He should get his chance. The Tory party has survived a lot. This will test it.
> @OldKingCole said: > > Had European elections leaflets today from the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats. > > > > > > > > The English Democrats promising 'English jobs for English workers, 'No' to Mass Immigration, 'No' to EU rule, Make St George's Day a Public holiday, English values, English History and English culture in our schools, Fly the English flag from all our public buildings, 'Yes' to English Independence' and say they are 'Putting England First.' > > The problem with a Public Holiday on St Georges Day is that in many years we'd have about four four day weeks in April.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Peter_the_Punter said: > > > > Difficult call this for the Tories. > > > > > > > > If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated. > > > > > > > > If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two. > > > > > > > > Tricky. > > > If Boris does not win there is a real risk the Tories will fall to third at the next general election behind both Labour and the Brexit Party, the situation is that bad > > > > > > > With respect Hyufd you are blinkered. Boris is not some Godlike figure and others have as good, if not better, chance of uniting the party > > Comres at the weekend had it Labour 27%, Brexit Party 20%, Tories 19%. > > Under Boris though the pollster had it Labour 27%, Tories 26%, Brexit Party 10%. > > So it is that simple for the Tories, be neck and neck with Labour with Boris, or risk falling to third place behind both Labour and the Brexit Party without Boris > > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/ >
> @DavidL said: > On topic this does indeed seem a very difficult situation. The Tories are in a very, very bad place after the incompetence and paralysis of Mrs May. They have no policies to talk of other than Brexit which they cannot deliver. They seem bereft of talent and ideas. Their solution to pretty much every problem is to spend more money and they think themselves virtuous that this is less than Corbyn is willing to promise. > > Membership is falling with a large percentage of what passes for activists intending to vote for another party. This can be habit forming. Tartan Tories started to fall for the charms of Salmond and it was a full generation before they were won back. > > What MPs need to think about in this situation is do they dare defy the membership by keeping Boris off the final 2? OTOH do they run the risk of what might be a catastrophic leader? > > I think with a heavy heart they should not dare. He should get his chance. The Tory party has survived a lot. This will test it.
Typically, your concerns seem to be for the Tory party, not the country.
On topic this does indeed seem a very difficult situation. The Tories are in a very, very bad place after the incompetence and paralysis of Mrs May. They have no policies to talk of other than Brexit which they cannot deliver. They seem bereft of talent and ideas. Their solution to pretty much every problem is to spend more money and they think themselves virtuous that this is less than Corbyn is willing to promise.
Membership is falling with a large percentage of what passes for activists intending to vote for another party. This can be habit forming. Tartan Tories started to fall for the charms of Salmond and it was a full generation before they were won back.
What MPs need to think about in this situation is do they dare defy the membership by keeping Boris off the final 2? OTOH do they run the risk of what might be a catastrophic leader?
I think with a heavy heart they should not dare. He should get his chance. The Tory party has survived a lot. This will test it.
Mrs May may have been incompetent, but the real causes of the party's distress are the Europhpobes who have seen off several competent leaders before her.
Blame them for the destruction of the party, not her.
> @SandyRentool said: > Congratulations to Mr and Mrs G. > > Just think - 55 years ago today there was a hopeless Tory PM in office, desperately clinging on. Whereas today...
Thank you. To be honest I was not thinking of politics at the time
> @hamiltonace said: > A lot of the inequality is coming not from the average person becoming poorer but the richer becoming much richer. This is mostly driven by technology shifts. > Technology is often expensive and benefits the wealthy who can afford it. > > As an example we are planning to buy a system to instantly identify a bacteria using DNA analysis. The investment costs at least £50k but cuts the time to do identification from 2 weeks to 1 day for some key mycobacteria. This is a game changer and the smaller labs who cant afford the cost of the machine and the educated staff to run it are basically been shut out of a major revenue stream. Society benefits massively from the technology but only a few labs make money from it. > > Our company is able to pay better than average wages which means we get better and more loyal staff which means we can implement more new technology which means we make more money. And so on. > > Is the answer to slow down technology ? Not sure in healthcare this is possible. > Is the answer to give more people access to more technology? Yes but hard to implement. > Is the answer to try and tax those who have the new technology? Yes but only in a way that keeps them onside as you risk them moving on. > > The greatest inequality in the UK is who pays the taxes. The top 1% pay 30% of all taxes. It seems that the Government has got it about right. > >
That's true, but the tragedy is that when technology was first being discussed in the 60s and 70s it was talked about as if it would make society MORE equal, not less. What's happening at the moment is the opposite of what everyone was hoping for.
I urge the Tories not to elect Bozo as leader and PM. Not for any partisan party political reason. Merely because I don't want to see that tw@t getting what he thinks is owed to him.
Channel 4 are doing an expose on Farage's links to Trump and shady finances and taking £100,000 plus expenses from the EU without declaring where the expenses are going and his links to Aaron Banks and his 5 full time bodyguards and who's paying for them.....but none of it matters. His Brexiteer followers are as stupid as a ton of cheese They love him.... It makes you want to vomit...
My friends, as I have discovered myself, there are no disasters, only opportunities. And, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters. - Boris, in The Telegraph, 2nd Dec 2004.
> So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons.
>
> The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
And how do they sort out brexit it’s only three weeks to go?
The can will be kicked.
I’m not sure where it can be kicked in October unless we are granted a further extension it does look like the lunatics will get their prize of no deal and we can all sit back and watch the pound fall over the summer, inflation increase and no real idea of what will happen. Maybe the “lunatics” are right and WTO will not be a problem, after all what do experts know?
> @Artist said: > I think the Tories need Boris now, he's the only one who can take on Farage as the darling of the media. He can also overshadow the Brexit party with his own right wing populism. Someone like Raab would probably struggle to make an impact.
What are the chances that Farage will stand his troops down (for the time being) to give a new Hard Brexit Tory PM a chance to deliver? For example, if there's an election, splitting the Brexit vote would be dangerous. Or has Farage lost trust in the Tories altogether?
FPT > @hamiltonace said: > The greatest inequality in the UK is who pays the taxes. The top 1% pay 30% of all taxes. It seems that the Government has got it about right.
What proportion of wealth and income does this top 1% have?
On topic this does indeed seem a very difficult situation. The Tories are in a very, very bad place after the incompetence and paralysis of Mrs May. They have no policies to talk of other than Brexit which they cannot deliver. They seem bereft of talent and ideas. Their solution to pretty much every problem is to spend more money and they think themselves virtuous that this is less than Corbyn is willing to promise.
Membership is falling with a large percentage of what passes for activists intending to vote for another party. This can be habit forming. Tartan Tories started to fall for the charms of Salmond and it was a full generation before they were won back.
What MPs need to think about in this situation is do they dare defy the membership by keeping Boris off the final 2? OTOH do they run the risk of what might be a catastrophic leader?
I think with a heavy heart they should not dare. He should get his chance. The Tory party has survived a lot. This will test it.
On what possible basis - other than his own inflated sense of self-importance, untethered to any actual ability - should Boris consider himself entitled to be in the last two?
A Tory party leader - any party leader - in Parliamentary democracy has to have the confidence of their MPs. That’s why the rules are the way they are. Tory MPs should not copy the example of Labour MPs and put forward someone they think unsuitable. Especially not when that person will likely become PM.
This is not - or rather should not - be about making Tory party members feel good. But about what is best for the country. To do otherwise is to behave in an unpardonably frivolous way.
I urge the Tories not to elect Bozo as leader and PM. Not for any partisan party political reason. Merely because I don't want to see that tw@t getting what he thinks is owed to him.
My chances of being PM are about as good as the chances of finding Elvis on Mars, or my being reincarnated as an olive. - Boris, in The Independent, 17 June 2004
> Just think - 55 years ago today there was a hopeless Tory PM in office, desperately clinging on. Whereas today...
Thank you. To be honest I was not thinking of politics at the time
Congratulations, never take for granted that tomorrow will be like today, enjoy what you have when you have it and if it goes wrong, for whatever reason you have good times to look back on.
> > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
> > Give me strength!
>
> The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
>
> It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
I like that comment and it made me chuckle
I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
> @Cyclefree said: > On topic this does indeed seem a very difficult situation. The Tories are in a very, very bad place after the incompetence and paralysis of Mrs May. They have no policies to talk of other than Brexit which they cannot deliver. They seem bereft of talent and ideas. Their solution to pretty much every problem is to spend more money and they think themselves virtuous that this is less than Corbyn is willing to promise. > > > > Membership is falling with a large percentage of what passes for activists intending to vote for another party. This can be habit forming. Tartan Tories started to fall for the charms of Salmond and it was a full generation before they were won back. > > > > What MPs need to think about in this situation is do they dare defy the membership by keeping Boris off the final 2? OTOH do they run the risk of what might be a catastrophic leader? > > > > I think with a heavy heart they should not dare. He should get his chance. The Tory party has survived a lot. This will test it. > > On what possible basis - other than his own inflated sense of self-importance, untethered to any actual ability - should Boris consider himself entitled to be in the last two? > > A Tory party leader - any party leader - in Parliamentary democracy has to have the confidence of their MPs. That’s why the rules are the way they are. Tory MPs should not copy the example of Labour MPs and put forward someone they think unsuitable. Especially not when that person will likely become PM. > > This is not - or rather should not - be about making Tory party members feel good. But about what is best for the country. To do otherwise is to behave in an unpardonably frivolous way.
------------------------------------------ Absolutely agreed. I understand why the MPs and other party members are so conscious of their own members, it is a part of being in the club after all, but at the end of the day it is not taking the lesser evil to permit as your leader someone you think is unsuitable. It's why so many Labour MPs are cowards and disingenuous to boot for backing Corbyn time and time again even as they periodically talk about how much they do not like various things he is fully behind. He is the one they are choosing to make PM at the next opportunity, and Tory MPs will be doing the same. If they think Boris is not suitable then that is the end of the story.
Maybe that destroys the party. But you know what? If choosing a leader you do not want, and transforming the party in the process, destroys that party, then what good is it anyway? It would not stand for anything more than a tribal rosette, willing to be anything to win.
> This is not - or rather should not - be about making Tory party members feel good. But about what is best for the country. To do otherwise is to behave in an unpardonably frivolous way.
There are striking parallels with the leadership election that Corbyn won in 2015. If Tory MPs don't think Boris is good enough to be PM they should choose someone else. Otherwise what point is there to them?
> @nichomar said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons. > > > > > > The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October. > > > > And how do they sort out brexit it’s only three weeks to go? > > The can will be kicked. > > I’m not sure where it can be kicked in October unless we are granted a further extension it does look like the lunatics will get their prize of no deal and we can all sit back and watch the pound fall over the summer, inflation increase and no real idea of what will happen. Maybe the “lunatics” are right and WTO will not be a problem, after all what do experts know?
We will be granted a further extension.
It’s the easiest thing for the EU to do, and the longer they do it the more likely that ‘events’ intervene.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > I simply do not believe the love for Boris. I know it's been professionally polled, but I completely reject it.
-------------
I have no problem believing there is a fairly large chunk that love him. Even though he is not a true no dealer for instance, the no dealer faction is the largest one in the party, even loyalists who despise that outcome like BigG admit that, and so a large faction loving Boris is easy to believe.
I just cannot see why they think it will transform the prospects of the party. The problems facing the party do not disappear because of a new leader, so can a new leader find a way through the challenges? Boris does not even try to do that, he just spouts meaningless slogans over and over, and is dimmer than he pretends, given his belated understanding that rejecting the WA risked Brexit completely, despite being told that a million times.
I think he would win though, because the Tories are just like Corbynite Labour - they want simplistic ideas regurgitated at them in a manner they find appealing, no matter how unrealistic. Clearly that's a tendency that has always existed in politics, but it seems to be in overdrive in recent years, sadly people like me helped spark that with the Brexit vote.
I still don't understand this Tartan Tory voted for the SNP thing when in 2017 the swing was clearly from LD to Tory in the constituencies where SNP MPs were knocked off by Conservatives.
> > So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons.
>
> >
>
> > The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
>
>
>
> And how do they sort out brexit it’s only three weeks to go?
>
> The can will be kicked.
>
> I’m not sure where it can be kicked in October unless we are granted a further extension it does look like the lunatics will get their prize of no deal and we can all sit back and watch the pound fall over the summer, inflation increase and no real idea of what will happen. Maybe the “lunatics” are right and WTO will not be a problem, after all what do experts know?
We will be granted a further extension.
It’s the easiest thing for the EU to do, and the longer they do it the more likely that ‘events’ intervene.
Only if we ask. Why would a Leaver PM ask for one?
> @Cyclefree said: > > @nichomar said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October. > > > > > > > > > > > > And how do they sort out brexit it’s only three weeks to go? > > > > > > The can will be kicked. > > > > > > I’m not sure where it can be kicked in October unless we are granted a further extension it does look like the lunatics will get their prize of no deal and we can all sit back and watch the pound fall over the summer, inflation increase and no real idea of what will happen. Maybe the “lunatics” are right and WTO will not be a problem, after all what do experts know? > > > > We will be granted a further extension. > > > > It’s the easiest thing for the EU to do, and the longer they do it the more likely that ‘events’ intervene. > > Only if we ask. Why would a Leaver PM ask for one? ------------------------------ Parliament can legislate again to force them to ask. If they cannot find their way to a GE we know they can do that, and Bercow for one would do all he could to assist that.
The Torys need to choose a leader that can beat Corbyn. That is in the national interest. If it is Boris they need to put in the checks and balances if he becomes PM. Whether that is a powerful cabinet that or a powerful CotE that has a lot of PM responsibility passed over or a powerful Deputy PM. The Torys could go for a dream ticket Boris as front person doing the glad handing the quips at the dispatch box and serious person behind doing the red box and sorting out all the committees.
> @nichomar said: > > @SandyRentool said: > > > Congratulations to Mr and Mrs G. > > > > > > Just think - 55 years ago today there was a hopeless Tory PM in office, desperately clinging on. Whereas today... > > > > Thank you. To be honest I was not thinking of politics at the time > > Congratulations, never take for granted that tomorrow will be like today, enjoy what you have when you have it and if it goes wrong, for whatever reason you have good times to look back on.
> @malcolmg said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement. > > > > Give me strength! > > > > > > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party. > > > > > > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air. > > > > I like that comment and it made me chuckle > > > > I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family. > > Congratulations G
Thanks Malc. The perfect union, a Scots lass and a Welsh/English partner
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > Congratulations to Mr and Mrs BigG. > > > > Thank you > > Congratulations on your anniversary, BigG. > > You don’t need to respond to every thank you; we all wish you well.
> @ralphmalph said: > The Torys need to choose a leader that can beat Corbyn. That is in the national interest. If it is Boris they need to put in the checks and balances if he becomes PM. Whether that is a powerful cabinet that or a powerful CotE that has a lot of PM responsibility passed over or a powerful Deputy PM. > The Torys could go for a dream ticket Boris as front person doing the glad handing the quips at the dispatch box and serious person behind doing the red box and sorting out all the committees.
----------------------- The problem with allowing someone unacceptable on the basis they will just be the frontman, is that in time they will likely be able to manuever around that and become genuinely powerful. It is not an acceptable risk to elevate someone unsuitable on the grounds that 'oh, we'll just rein them in, no problem'. It would not work with Corbyn, it would not work with Boris.
If people think Boris would be a good PM, or an ok PM, or not great but not terrible, fine, but backing him because he is the 'only' person who could beat Corbyn (which is very self defeating, and shows a high opinion of Corbyn) and he can be contrained strikes me as quite unwise.
Don’t see why there’s so much drama about Bozo becoming PM.
Given the choice on offer which will be between hard Brexiters, it’s just variations of awfulness .
I despise Raab who seems to be the other currently favoured , at least Johnson might offer some unintended entertainment as the UK becomes Trumps poodle .
> @isam said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > Congratulations to Mr and Mrs BigG. > > > > > > Thank you > > > > Congratulations on your anniversary, BigG. > > > > You don’t need to respond to every thank you; we all wish you well. > > If he can avoid the temptation to reply to that with ‘Thank You’, I think Big G should shorten in the next Con leader betting > > Over before it started ------------------------ And I just got on at 75-1! Wasted money
The Torys need to choose a leader that can beat Corbyn. That is in the national interest. If it is Boris they need to put in the checks and balances if he becomes PM. Whether that is a powerful cabinet that or a powerful CotE that has a lot of PM responsibility passed over or a powerful Deputy PM.
The Torys could go for a dream ticket Boris as front person doing the glad handing the quips at the dispatch box and serious person behind doing the red box and sorting out all the committees.
“quips at the despatch box”
Jesus wept. Thus does a once great party die.
Being PM is not some 6th form common room jape. FFS!
> @kle4 said: > > @isam said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > Congratulations to Mr and Mrs BigG. > > > > > > > > > > Thank you > > > > > > > > Congratulations on your anniversary, BigG. > > > > > > > > You don’t need to respond to every thank you; we all wish you well. > > > > If he can avoid the temptation to reply to that with ‘Thank You’, I think Big G should shorten in the next Con leader betting > > > > Over before it started > ------------------------ > And I just got on at 75-1! Wasted money
In fairness, Big G has more of a public profile than some of the hopefuls.
> @kle4 said: > > @ralphmalph said: > > The Torys need to choose a leader that can beat Corbyn. That is in the national interest. If it is Boris they need to put in the checks and balances if he becomes PM. Whether that is a powerful cabinet that or a powerful CotE that has a lot of PM responsibility passed over or a powerful Deputy PM. > > The Torys could go for a dream ticket Boris as front person doing the glad handing the quips at the dispatch box and serious person behind doing the red box and sorting out all the committees. > > ----------------------- > The problem with allowing someone unacceptable on the basis they will just be the frontman, is that in time they will likely be able to manuever around that and become genuinely powerful. It is not an acceptable risk to elevate someone unsuitable on the grounds that 'oh, we'll just rein them in, no problem'. It would not work with Corbyn, it would not work with Boris. > > If people think Boris would be a good PM, or an ok PM, or not great but not terrible, fine, but backing him because he is the 'only' person who could beat Corbyn (which is very self defeating, and shows a high opinion of Corbyn) and he can be contrained strikes me as quite unwise.
It worked with Blair and Brown. Blair at the height of his powers with a massive majority could not join the Euro.
@hamiltonace said: > The greatest inequality in the UK is who pays the taxes. The top 1% pay 30% of all taxes. It seems that the Government has got it about right
Not true
Households earning the top 10% of incomes pay about 27% in total of most direct and indirect taxes, according to Office of National Statistics (ONS) data. This figure has remained roughly constant since 2009/10.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @isam said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > > > Congratulations to Mr and Mrs BigG. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Thank you > > > > > > > > > > > > Congratulations on your anniversary, BigG. > > > > > > > > > > > > You don’t need to respond to every thank you; we all wish you well. > > > > > > If he can avoid the temptation to reply to that with ‘Thank You’, I think Big G should shorten in the next Con leader betting > > > > > > Over before it started > > ------------------------ > > And I just got on at 75-1! Wasted money > > In fairness, Big G has more of a public profile than some of the hopefuls.
If I was younger I would love to give some of them a run for their money Alastair
> > The Torys need to choose a leader that can beat Corbyn. That is in the national interest. If it is Boris they need to put in the checks and balances if he becomes PM. Whether that is a powerful cabinet that or a powerful CotE that has a lot of PM responsibility passed over or a powerful Deputy PM.
> > The Torys could go for a dream ticket Boris as front person doing the glad handing the quips at the dispatch box and serious person behind doing the red box and sorting out all the committees.
>
> -----------------------
> The problem with allowing someone unacceptable on the basis they will just be the frontman, is that in time they will likely be able to manuever around that and become genuinely powerful. It is not an acceptable risk to elevate someone unsuitable on the grounds that 'oh, we'll just rein them in, no problem'. It would not work with Corbyn, it would not work with Boris.
>
> If people think Boris would be a good PM, or an ok PM, or not great but not terrible, fine, but backing him because he is the 'only' person who could beat Corbyn (which is very self defeating, and shows a high opinion of Corbyn) and he can be contrained strikes me as quite unwise.
It worked with Blair and Brown. Blair at the height of his powers with a massive majority could not join the Euro.
Perhaps, but was Blair as bad as Boris/Corbyn in general competence, and did he, at the start, have more impressive qualities?
People like to argue that because the majority of the Labour vote in Leave areas is pro-Remain, that Labour can safely pivot to an explicitly pro-Remain position, but that ignores the effect of firing up a large part of the rest of the electorate against them. They're in a genuinely very difficult position electorally.
Comments
He isn’t far off 2/1 now and a clear lay, IMHO.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > A timetable for a timetable just about sums May up. "So incompetent so is unable to resign properly".
> > > Why is the Second Reading relevant? Does she believe only she can steer it through? Cos form suggests otherwise.
> >
> > That's a great line, that. Is that the SNP? I have never rated Blackford, but every now and then he pulls something fantastic out.
>
> I think I used something similar on here within the last week.
I apologise for misattributing it
> They used to be the party of white working class kids playing in northern streets, now it’s white Range Rovers in North London
>
> https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1129054384069980161
The veil drops.
> So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons.
>
> The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
-----------
Makes sense - they'll want a nice long contest going out to the members over the summer anyway, nothing Brexit related will happen until after that is all sorted, so may as well stay on until then.
---------------------
> @solarflare said:
> If Labour are "a party of remain" they're not a very good one at it.
--------------------
We might end up remaining, and most of their voters will be behind that push, so it will work well enough even if the leadership are half hearted about it.
> Boris will probably implode during the contest.
Which poses an interesting question about who Candidate No 2 is.
I can see the hard core being content with an utterly ‘unacceptable’ Remainer being on the poll with Boris, just to make sure their man comes out on top - if you’re a Leaver and you want BoJo, you’d calculate he’d have an easier ride against Rudd. But what if that happens and then Bozza is forced to pull out before the members vote because the Mirror has pics of him doing something inappropriate (or whatever)?
> So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons.
>
> The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
And how do they sort out brexit it’s only three weeks to go?
> On this day 55 years ago Jan and I got married at St Geraldine's Church in Lossiemouth and we have received so many blessings over the years including 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family. Each day we marvel at our good fortune and thank the 'Good Lord' for his blessings. Today, as we have all week, been in the garden making good use of the exercise and marvelling at the various birds nesting either in our garden or nearby including, robins, coal tits, sparrows, starlings, collar doves, pigeons and of course the raucous cry of seagulls who have pitched camp in a roof nearby.
>
> Jans poppies are spectacular this year as shown in the photo. Jan and I want to thank everyone for their kind wishes on our anniversary. Thank you
That's lovely, BigG - many thanbks for telling us about it, and a very happy time still to come.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons.
> >
> > The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
>
> And how do they sort out brexit it’s only three weeks to go?
-----------------
They don't. The new leader will be a no deal supporter, and they will hope no extension will be granted after parliament either forces one, or forces a GE.
> So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons.
>
> The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
Theresa will probably try to play it long but I suspect the 1922 will have other ideas.
Think we'll have a new PM by mid to late July.
> Difficult call this for the Tories.
>
> If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated.
>
> If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two.
>
> Tricky.
Easy for them to justify it to themselves if they cannot stand Boris. They're trying to hold the party together, prevent more MPs crossing the floor as has been mooted should Johnson win.
I imagine, thought I don't know, that a few Tory MPs believe the membership needs reigning in. There's clearly a subset of them who are utterly and madly unreasonable. And if Boris is their man, what better way to stick it to them than to pull the rug from under him.
Am I right in thinking it's a secret ballot, too? That helps.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > On this day 55 years ago Jan and I got married at St Geraldine's Church in Lossiemouth and we have received so many blessings over the years including 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family. Each day we marvel at our good fortune and thank the 'Good Lord' for his blessings. Today, as we have all week, been in the garden making good use of the exercise and marvelling at the various birds nesting either in our garden or nearby including, robins, coal tits, sparrows, starlings, collar doves, pigeons and of course the raucous cry of seagulls who have pitched camp in a roof nearby.
> >
> > Jans poppies are spectacular this year as shown in the photo. Jan and I want to thank everyone for their kind wishes on our anniversary. Thank you
>
> That's lovely, BigG - many thanbks for telling us about it, and a very happy time still to come.
>
Thanks Nick. It is one of life's pleasures to watch nature on full display. I missed out the blackbirds who are also nesting in our garden
Sometimes we need to switch off from poitics
> > As she'll presumably stay on as PM during a leadership contest she should pass Brown (2 years and 319 days) The Duke Of Wellington (2 years and 320 days) and Neville Chamberlain (2 years and 348 days)
>
> They waited 2 years and 320 days before giving Wellington the boot?
They couldn't shoo him out.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > A timetable for a timetable just about sums May up. "So incompetent so is unable to resign properly".
> > Why is the Second Reading relevant? Does she believe only she can steer it through? Cos form suggests otherwise.
>
> That's a great line, that. Is that the SNP? I have never rated Blackford, but every now and then he pulls something fantastic out.
Alternatively "Theresa May must be the only leader in living memory who has tried to fall on her own sword and managed to miss".
Of course that rather misses the point (lol, rofl etc) that Tessy has only wanted to give the impression of falling on her own sword while doing everything she can to avoid it.
> If Labour are "a party of remain" they're not a very good one at it.
Corbyn has been a lifelong Eurosceptic.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons.
> >
> > The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
>
> Theresa will probably try to play it long but I suspect the 1922 will have other ideas.
>
> Think we'll have a new PM by mid to late July.
I doubt it. Too many candidates and televised hustings in different parts of the Country then the members ballot. I would expect late August at the earliest
> Difficult call this for the Tories.
>
> If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated.
>
> If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two.
>
> Tricky.
If Boris does not win there is a real risk the Tories will fall to third at the next general election behind both Labour and the Brexit Party, the situation is that bad
> Back Boris at 4.1 for PM to follow May and lay him as next Tory leader at 3.55
And if there's a snap election, Corbyn will nationalise your stake.
> > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > Difficult call this for the Tories.
> >
> > If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated.
> >
> > If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two.
> >
> > Tricky.
> If Boris does not win there is a real risk the Tories will fall to third at the next general election behind both Labour and the Brexit Party, the situation is that bad
>
With respect Hyufd you are blinkered. Boris is not some Godlike figure and others have as good, if not better, chance of uniting the party
> They used to be the party of white working class kids playing in northern streets, now it’s white Range Rovers in North London
>
> https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1129054384069980161
Had European elections leaflets today from the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats.
The English Democrats promising 'English jobs for English workers, 'No' to Mass Immigration, 'No' to EU rule, Make St George's Day a Public holiday, English values, English History and English culture in our schools, Fly the English flag from all our public buildings, 'Yes' to English Independence' and say they are 'Putting England First' and are 'Not Left, not Right - Just English!'
On the front is a big 'Proud and English' message with a St George's flag background just in case you had not got the message yet!
> Back Boris at 4.1 for PM to follow May and lay him as next Tory leader at 3.55
You could easily lose both bets.
> > @solarflare said:
> > If Labour are "a party of remain" they're not a very good one at it.
>
> Corbyn has been a lifelong Eurosceptic.
In his early years he was a Bennite, so understandable.
Ten years for myself and Mrs J this August, although with a couple of scares. One child, who is giggling with his mother downstairs as I type. Grandchildren seem a long way away, although I hope) they'll arrive, and much sooner than I expect!
( A few months ago I realised the little 'un was 4.5 years old, and therefore a quarter of the way to being an adult. That seemed insane.)
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Back Boris at 4.1 for PM to follow May and lay him as next Tory leader at 3.55
>
> And if there's a snap election, Corbyn will nationalise your stake.
Confiscate is more likely along with your pension and your salary
> If Labour are "a party of remain" they're not a very good one at it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/bp2xmc/eu_election_manifestos_according_to_private_eye/
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > > Difficult call this for the Tories.
> > >
> > > If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated.
> > >
> > > If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two.
> > >
> > > Tricky.
> > If Boris does not win there is a real risk the Tories will fall to third at the next general election behind both Labour and the Brexit Party, the situation is that bad
> >
>
> With respect Hyufd you are blinkered. Boris is not some Godlike figure and others have as good, if not better, chance of uniting the party
There are two things at play here: the membership and the wider country. It could be you're both right. Johnson might divide the party but stem the electoral bleeding.
That shouldn't normally be possible, but the Conservatives are in a lot of trouble right now so normal political rules mightn't apply.
I personally wouldn't advise Conservatives go for Johnson, but it _might_ work.
> Matt is still a genius!
>
> https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1129071458360156160
That is indeed brilliant.
Many congratulations to BigG. May you have many more happy years of good health before you.
See the discussion on this morning’s thread about the proposed definition of islamophobia.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @dixiedean said:
>
> > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
>
> > > Give me strength!
>
> >
>
> > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
>
> >
>
> > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
>
>
>
> I like that comment and it made me chuckle
>
>
>
> I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
>
> Congratulations, Big_G. That's quite a span.
>
> Ten years for myself and Mrs J this August, although with a couple of scares. One child, who is giggling with his mother downstairs as I type. Grandchildren seem a long way away, although I hope) they'll arrive, and much sooner than I expect!
>
> ( A few months ago I realised the little 'un was 4.5 years old, and therefore a quarter of the way to being an adult. That seemed insane.)
Thank you and enjoy your children, they are so precious, and then suddenly one day your first grandchild arrives and you look on in wonder.
My grandson is playing with his Fathers dinky toys in the same room his Father did all those years ago, thanks to his Grandma making sure his Fathers toys were all kept safe and secure here in his childhood home when he flew the nest
> > @kyf_100 said:
>
> > £4.13 in Scotland, where the nanny state punishes alcoholics, but only if they'e poor.
>
> On the upside they'll get free prescriptions for all the alcohol related illnesses that'll be their companions unto death.
Releasing more of their income for the demon drink!
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > Back Boris at 4.1 for PM to follow May and lay him as next Tory leader at 3.55
> >
> > And if there's a snap election, Corbyn will nationalise your stake.
>
> Confiscate is more likely along with your pension and your salary
Well, I'm not planning to vote for him. But right now, he's set to win* a snap election. And I'm not worried by that prospect: we can do better than him, but on current evidence, we could do worse too.
*be the worst at losing, at least
> > @Sandpit said:
> > Matt is still a genius!
> >
> > https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1129071458360156160
>
> That is indeed brilliant.
>
> Many congratulations to BigG. May you have many more happy years of good health before you.
Thank you David
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > > Difficult call this for the Tories.
> > >
> > > If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated.
> > >
> > > If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two.
> > >
> > > Tricky.
> > If Boris does not win there is a real risk the Tories will fall to third at the next general election behind both Labour and the Brexit Party, the situation is that bad
> >
>
> With respect Hyufd you are blinkered. Boris is not some Godlike figure and others have as good, if not better, chance of uniting the party
Comres at the weekend had it Labour 27%, Brexit Party 20%, Tories 19%.
Under Boris though the pollster had it Labour 27%, Tories 26%, Brexit Party 10%.
So it is that simple for the Tories, be neck and neck with Labour with Boris, or risk falling to third place behind both Labour and the Brexit Party without Boris
https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
https://twitter.com/OldRoberts953/status/1129011433465950208
> > @isam said:
>
> > They used to be the party of white working class kids playing in northern streets, now it’s white Range Rovers in North London
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1129054384069980161
>
>
>
>
>
> Had European elections leaflets today from the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats.
>
>
>
> The English Democrats promising 'English jobs for English workers, 'No' to Mass Immigration, 'No' to EU rule, Make St George's Day a Public holiday, English values, English History and English culture in our schools, Fly the English flag from all our public buildings, 'Yes' to English Independence' and say they are 'Putting England First.'
>
>
>
> On the front is a big 'Proud and English' message with a St George's flag background just in case you had not got the message yet!
>
> ‘Printed in the EU’?
The problem with a Public Holiday on St Georges Day is that in many years we'd have about four four day weeks in April.
Membership is falling with a large percentage of what passes for activists intending to vote for another party. This can be habit forming. Tartan Tories started to fall for the charms of Salmond and it was a full generation before they were won back.
What MPs need to think about in this situation is do they dare defy the membership by keeping Boris off the final 2? OTOH do they run the risk of what might be a catastrophic leader?
I think with a heavy heart they should not dare. He should get his chance. The Tory party has survived a lot. This will test it.
Just think - 55 years ago today there was a hopeless Tory PM in office, desperately clinging on. Whereas today...
> > Had European elections leaflets today from the Brexit Party, the Greens and the English Democrats.
> >
> >
> >
> > The English Democrats promising 'English jobs for English workers, 'No' to Mass Immigration, 'No' to EU rule, Make St George's Day a Public holiday, English values, English History and English culture in our schools, Fly the English flag from all our public buildings, 'Yes' to English Independence' and say they are 'Putting England First.'
>
> The problem with a Public Holiday on St Georges Day is that in many years we'd have about four four day weeks in April.
Four day week every week with Jezza!
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > > > Difficult call this for the Tories.
> > > >
> > > > If Boris doesn't make it to the last two, the membership will feel cheated.
> > > >
> > > > If he does, he will win, and become such a disastrous leader that the membership will wonder why the MPs, who knew perfectly well what he was like, ever allowed him to get the the last two.
> > > >
> > > > Tricky.
> > > If Boris does not win there is a real risk the Tories will fall to third at the next general election behind both Labour and the Brexit Party, the situation is that bad
> > >
> >
> > With respect Hyufd you are blinkered. Boris is not some Godlike figure and others have as good, if not better, chance of uniting the party
>
> Comres at the weekend had it Labour 27%, Brexit Party 20%, Tories 19%.
>
> Under Boris though the pollster had it Labour 27%, Tories 26%, Brexit Party 10%.
>
> So it is that simple for the Tories, be neck and neck with Labour with Boris, or risk falling to third place behind both Labour and the Brexit Party without Boris
>
> https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
>
Nothing is simple and expect the unexpected
> On topic this does indeed seem a very difficult situation. The Tories are in a very, very bad place after the incompetence and paralysis of Mrs May. They have no policies to talk of other than Brexit which they cannot deliver. They seem bereft of talent and ideas. Their solution to pretty much every problem is to spend more money and they think themselves virtuous that this is less than Corbyn is willing to promise.
>
> Membership is falling with a large percentage of what passes for activists intending to vote for another party. This can be habit forming. Tartan Tories started to fall for the charms of Salmond and it was a full generation before they were won back.
>
> What MPs need to think about in this situation is do they dare defy the membership by keeping Boris off the final 2? OTOH do they run the risk of what might be a catastrophic leader?
>
> I think with a heavy heart they should not dare. He should get his chance. The Tory party has survived a lot. This will test it.
Typically, your concerns seem to be for the Tory party, not the country.
Blame them for the destruction of the party, not her.
> Congratulations to Mr and Mrs G.
>
> Just think - 55 years ago today there was a hopeless Tory PM in office, desperately clinging on. Whereas today...
Thank you. To be honest I was not thinking of politics at the time
> @hamiltonace said:
> A lot of the inequality is coming not from the average person becoming poorer but the richer becoming much richer. This is mostly driven by technology shifts.
> Technology is often expensive and benefits the wealthy who can afford it.
>
> As an example we are planning to buy a system to instantly identify a bacteria using DNA analysis. The investment costs at least £50k but cuts the time to do identification from 2 weeks to 1 day for some key mycobacteria. This is a game changer and the smaller labs who cant afford the cost of the machine and the educated staff to run it are basically been shut out of a major revenue stream. Society benefits massively from the technology but only a few labs make money from it.
>
> Our company is able to pay better than average wages which means we get better and more loyal staff which means we can implement more new technology which means we make more money. And so on.
>
> Is the answer to slow down technology ? Not sure in healthcare this is possible.
> Is the answer to give more people access to more technology? Yes but hard to implement.
> Is the answer to try and tax those who have the new technology? Yes but only in a way that keeps them onside as you risk them moving on.
>
> The greatest inequality in the UK is who pays the taxes. The top 1% pay 30% of all taxes. It seems that the Government has got it about right.
>
>
That's true, but the tragedy is that when technology was first being discussed in the 60s and 70s it was talked about as if it would make society MORE equal, not less. What's happening at the moment is the opposite of what everyone was hoping for.
- Boris, in The Telegraph, 2nd Dec 2004.
> I think the Tories need Boris now, he's the only one who can take on Farage as the darling of the media. He can also overshadow the Brexit party with his own right wing populism. Someone like Raab would probably struggle to make an impact.
What are the chances that Farage will stand his troops down (for the time being) to give a new Hard Brexit Tory PM a chance to deliver? For example, if there's an election, splitting the Brexit vote would be dangerous. Or has Farage lost trust in the Tories altogether?
> @hamiltonace said:
> The greatest inequality in the UK is who pays the taxes. The top 1% pay 30% of all taxes. It seems that the Government has got it about right.
What proportion of wealth and income does this top 1% have?
> Congratulations to Mr and Mrs BigG.
Thank you
A Tory party leader - any party leader - in Parliamentary democracy has to have the confidence of their MPs. That’s why the rules are the way they are. Tory MPs should not copy the example of Labour MPs and put forward someone they think unsuitable. Especially not when that person will likely become PM.
This is not - or rather should not - be about making Tory party members feel good. But about what is best for the country. To do otherwise is to behave in an unpardonably frivolous way.
- Boris, in The Independent, 17 June 2004
> On topic this does indeed seem a very difficult situation. The Tories are in a very, very bad place after the incompetence and paralysis of Mrs May. They have no policies to talk of other than Brexit which they cannot deliver. They seem bereft of talent and ideas. Their solution to pretty much every problem is to spend more money and they think themselves virtuous that this is less than Corbyn is willing to promise.
>
>
>
> Membership is falling with a large percentage of what passes for activists intending to vote for another party. This can be habit forming. Tartan Tories started to fall for the charms of Salmond and it was a full generation before they were won back.
>
>
>
> What MPs need to think about in this situation is do they dare defy the membership by keeping Boris off the final 2? OTOH do they run the risk of what might be a catastrophic leader?
>
>
>
> I think with a heavy heart they should not dare. He should get his chance. The Tory party has survived a lot. This will test it.
>
> On what possible basis - other than his own inflated sense of self-importance, untethered to any actual ability - should Boris consider himself entitled to be in the last two?
>
> A Tory party leader - any party leader - in Parliamentary democracy has to have the confidence of their MPs. That’s why the rules are the way they are. Tory MPs should not copy the example of Labour MPs and put forward someone they think unsuitable. Especially not when that person will likely become PM.
>
> This is not - or rather should not - be about making Tory party members feel good. But about what is best for the country. To do otherwise is to behave in an unpardonably frivolous way.
------------------------------------------
Absolutely agreed. I understand why the MPs and other party members are so conscious of their own members, it is a part of being in the club after all, but at the end of the day it is not taking the lesser evil to permit as your leader someone you think is unsuitable. It's why so many Labour MPs are cowards and disingenuous to boot for backing Corbyn time and time again even as they periodically talk about how much they do not like various things he is fully behind. He is the one they are choosing to make PM at the next opportunity, and Tory MPs will be doing the same. If they think Boris is not suitable then that is the end of the story.
Maybe that destroys the party. But you know what? If choosing a leader you do not want, and transforming the party in the process, destroys that party, then what good is it anyway? It would not stand for anything more than a tribal rosette, willing to be anything to win.
It's pathetic.
> This is not - or rather should not - be about making Tory party members feel good. But about what is best for the country. To do otherwise is to behave in an unpardonably frivolous way.
There are striking parallels with the leadership election that Corbyn won in 2015. If Tory MPs don't think Boris is good enough to be PM they should choose someone else. Otherwise what point is there to them?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Congratulations to Mr and Mrs BigG.
>
> Thank you
Congratulations on your anniversary, BigG.
You don’t need to respond to every thank you; we all wish you well.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons.
>
> >
>
> > The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
>
>
>
> And how do they sort out brexit it’s only three weeks to go?
>
> The can will be kicked.
>
> I’m not sure where it can be kicked in October unless we are granted a further extension it does look like the lunatics will get their prize of no deal and we can all sit back and watch the pound fall over the summer, inflation increase and no real idea of what will happen. Maybe the “lunatics” are right and WTO will not be a problem, after all what do experts know?
We will be granted a further extension.
It’s the easiest thing for the EU to do, and the longer they do it the more likely that ‘events’ intervene.
> I simply do not believe the love for Boris. I know it's been professionally polled, but I completely reject it.
Name recognition is perhaps doing a lot of work there.
The trouble is so many of the other leading Tory contenders are charisma free.
> I simply do not believe the love for Boris. I know it's been professionally polled, but I completely reject it.
-------------
I have no problem believing there is a fairly large chunk that love him. Even though he is not a true no dealer for instance, the no dealer faction is the largest one in the party, even loyalists who despise that outcome like BigG admit that, and so a large faction loving Boris is easy to believe.
I just cannot see why they think it will transform the prospects of the party. The problems facing the party do not disappear because of a new leader, so can a new leader find a way through the challenges? Boris does not even try to do that, he just spouts meaningless slogans over and over, and is dimmer than he pretends, given his belated understanding that rejecting the WA risked Brexit completely, despite being told that a million times.
I think he would win though, because the Tories are just like Corbynite Labour - they want simplistic ideas regurgitated at them in a manner they find appealing, no matter how unrealistic. Clearly that's a tendency that has always existed in politics, but it seems to be in overdrive in recent years, sadly people like me helped spark that with the Brexit vote.
> > @nichomar said:
>
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> >
>
> > > So, it seems to me that May will be forced to announce a timetable for her departure on the w/e 7th June because her WA Bill will fail when it comes back to the Commons.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The question is how long that timetable is - personally, I expect her to play it long to the Autumn party conferences, with a new Tory leader and PM by 2nd October.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > And how do they sort out brexit it’s only three weeks to go?
>
> >
>
> > The can will be kicked.
>
> >
>
> > I’m not sure where it can be kicked in October unless we are granted a further extension it does look like the lunatics will get their prize of no deal and we can all sit back and watch the pound fall over the summer, inflation increase and no real idea of what will happen. Maybe the “lunatics” are right and WTO will not be a problem, after all what do experts know?
>
>
>
> We will be granted a further extension.
>
>
>
> It’s the easiest thing for the EU to do, and the longer they do it the more likely that ‘events’ intervene.
>
> Only if we ask. Why would a Leaver PM ask for one?
------------------------------
Parliament can legislate again to force them to ask. If they cannot find their way to a GE we know they can do that, and Bercow for one would do all he could to assist that.
The Torys could go for a dream ticket Boris as front person doing the glad handing the quips at the dispatch box and serious person behind doing the red box and sorting out all the committees.
> > @SandyRentool said:
>
> > Congratulations to Mr and Mrs G.
>
> >
>
> > Just think - 55 years ago today there was a hopeless Tory PM in office, desperately clinging on. Whereas today...
>
>
>
> Thank you. To be honest I was not thinking of politics at the time
>
> Congratulations, never take for granted that tomorrow will be like today, enjoy what you have when you have it and if it goes wrong, for whatever reason you have good times to look back on.
Thank you and wise words
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @dixiedean said:
>
> > > Clifton -Brown on PM saying a new PM and a new EU Parliament will lead to an entirely new Withdrawal Agreement.
>
> > > Give me strength!
>
> >
>
> > The Tory Party are giving us a fantastic masterclass in being the Stupid Party.
>
> >
>
> > It's really very considerate of them now that Jeremy Kyle has been taken off air.
>
>
>
> I like that comment and it made me chuckle
>
>
>
> I have been smiling all day as my dear wife and I celebrate our 55th wedding anniversary appreciating all our blessings with 3 children, 4 grandchildren and a very close family.
>
> Congratulations G
Thanks Malc. The perfect union, a Scots lass and a Welsh/English partner
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Congratulations to Mr and Mrs BigG.
> >
> > Thank you
>
> Congratulations on your anniversary, BigG.
>
> You don’t need to respond to every thank you; we all wish you well.
No but I like to and thank you
> The Torys need to choose a leader that can beat Corbyn. That is in the national interest. If it is Boris they need to put in the checks and balances if he becomes PM. Whether that is a powerful cabinet that or a powerful CotE that has a lot of PM responsibility passed over or a powerful Deputy PM.
> The Torys could go for a dream ticket Boris as front person doing the glad handing the quips at the dispatch box and serious person behind doing the red box and sorting out all the committees.
-----------------------
The problem with allowing someone unacceptable on the basis they will just be the frontman, is that in time they will likely be able to manuever around that and become genuinely powerful. It is not an acceptable risk to elevate someone unsuitable on the grounds that 'oh, we'll just rein them in, no problem'. It would not work with Corbyn, it would not work with Boris.
If people think Boris would be a good PM, or an ok PM, or not great but not terrible, fine, but backing him because he is the 'only' person who could beat Corbyn (which is very self defeating, and shows a high opinion of Corbyn) and he can be contrained strikes me as quite unwise.
> Congrats to BigG and family!
Thanks Sunil
Given the choice on offer which will be between hard Brexiters, it’s just variations of awfulness .
I despise Raab who seems to be the other currently favoured , at least Johnson might offer some unintended entertainment as the UK becomes Trumps poodle .
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > @AndyJS said:
>
> > > Congratulations to Mr and Mrs BigG.
>
> >
>
> > Thank you
>
>
>
> Congratulations on your anniversary, BigG.
>
>
>
> You don’t need to respond to every thank you; we all wish you well.
>
> If he can avoid the temptation to reply to that with ‘Thank You’, I think Big G should shorten in the next Con leader betting
>
> Over before it started
------------------------
And I just got on at 75-1! Wasted money
Jesus wept. Thus does a once great party die.
Being PM is not some 6th form common room jape. FFS!
> > @isam said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> >
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> >
> > > > Congratulations to Mr and Mrs BigG.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Thank you
> >
> >
> >
> > Congratulations on your anniversary, BigG.
> >
> >
> >
> > You don’t need to respond to every thank you; we all wish you well.
> >
> > If he can avoid the temptation to reply to that with ‘Thank You’, I think Big G should shorten in the next Con leader betting
> >
> > Over before it started
> ------------------------
> And I just got on at 75-1! Wasted money
In fairness, Big G has more of a public profile than some of the hopefuls.
https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/1129098481241657345?s=21
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > The Torys need to choose a leader that can beat Corbyn. That is in the national interest. If it is Boris they need to put in the checks and balances if he becomes PM. Whether that is a powerful cabinet that or a powerful CotE that has a lot of PM responsibility passed over or a powerful Deputy PM.
> > The Torys could go for a dream ticket Boris as front person doing the glad handing the quips at the dispatch box and serious person behind doing the red box and sorting out all the committees.
>
> -----------------------
> The problem with allowing someone unacceptable on the basis they will just be the frontman, is that in time they will likely be able to manuever around that and become genuinely powerful. It is not an acceptable risk to elevate someone unsuitable on the grounds that 'oh, we'll just rein them in, no problem'. It would not work with Corbyn, it would not work with Boris.
>
> If people think Boris would be a good PM, or an ok PM, or not great but not terrible, fine, but backing him because he is the 'only' person who could beat Corbyn (which is very self defeating, and shows a high opinion of Corbyn) and he can be contrained strikes me as quite unwise.
It worked with Blair and Brown. Blair at the height of his powers with a massive majority could not join the Euro.
> These Brexit Party rallies do a good job of promoting the candidates and making it about them. It’s quite impressive.
I've said ir before and I'll say it again the Brexit Party is a VERY formidable outfit.
> The greatest inequality in the UK is who pays the taxes. The top 1% pay 30% of all taxes. It seems that the Government has got it about right
Not true
Households earning the top 10% of incomes pay about 27% in total of most direct and indirect taxes, according to Office of National Statistics (ONS) data. This figure has remained roughly constant since 2009/10.
Great that you had such a wonderful day . Family is so important.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1129068946492203009
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > >
> > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > >
> > > > > Congratulations to Mr and Mrs BigG.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Thank you
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Congratulations on your anniversary, BigG.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > You don’t need to respond to every thank you; we all wish you well.
> > >
> > > If he can avoid the temptation to reply to that with ‘Thank You’, I think Big G should shorten in the next Con leader betting
> > >
> > > Over before it started
> > ------------------------
> > And I just got on at 75-1! Wasted money
>
> In fairness, Big G has more of a public profile than some of the hopefuls.
If I was younger I would love to give some of them a run for their money Alastair
> Congratulations Big G.
>
> Great that you had such a wonderful day . Family is so important.
Thank you and it is indeed