People like to argue that because the majority of the Labour vote in Leave areas is pro-Remain, that Labour can safely pivot to an explicitly pro-Remain position, but that ignores the effect of firing up a large part of the rest of the electorate against them. They're in a genuinely very difficult position electorally.
That is why a number of Labour MPs fake being against a referendum (yes I say fake, nothing about their actions - as opposed to their words - suggests to me they would vote for any non-unicorn leave proposition, making their words against a referendum and remaining pointless), because while most of their actual voters are indeed pro-Remain, stirring up the constituency would be a risk they do not want to take, clearly.
Most of them would probably be fine, but as you note it would make things more difficult.
> @williamglenn said: > People like to argue that because the majority of the Labour vote in Leave areas is pro-Remain, that Labour can safely pivot to an explicitly pro-Remain position, but that ignores the effect of firing up a large part of the rest of the electorate against them. They're in a genuinely very difficult position electorally.
There is some evidence that the biggest movement in Leave to Remain is in Lab Leave areas, while the Tory shires are still steadfast Leave, outside the SE.
> @williamglenn said: > People like to argue that because the majority of the Labour vote in Leave areas is pro-Remain, that Labour can safely pivot to an explicitly pro-Remain position, but that ignores the effect of firing up a large part of the rest of the electorate against them. They're in a genuinely very difficult position electorally.
I agree. Labour’s failure is that it has failed to make even the slightest attempt to shape public opinion about what a good Brexit outcome would look like. By being bystanders they have ended up being the problem. And now they have the problem that no one thinks they stand for anything.
What happened in the past does not predict the future. I bet very rarely, to date I backed Corbyn at 25-1 as labour leader, Boris, first time round as major of London at 8-1, Macron at20-1 and Trump at 3-1, so I have had quite a run on leadership type elections. I put my money on Rory Stewart several weeks ago. I think that a much diminished Tory party will want to skip a generation, will want to avoid a buffoon, and will want someone very different from what has gone before.He is the only one of the contenders who might persuade me ever to vote Tory again.
Like him or not I think the Conservatives' only hope now is BJ. They are squeezed by a pincer movement from Farage and Corbyn. They have to show the leavers that they are as leavery as the Brexit Party and they have to have a charismatic leader who can face down both NF and JC. I don't see anyone else who has a smidgeon of a chance to do that.
edit: p.s. to add, that's not to say the MPs will allow him onto the final ballot.
> @geoffw said: > Like him or not I think the Conservatives' only hope now is BJ. > They are squeezed by a pincer movement from Farage and Corbyn. They have to show the leavers that they are as leavery as the Brexit Party and they have to have a charismatic leader who can face down both NF and JC. I don't see anyone else who has a smidgeon of a chance to do that.
Liz Truss. She couldn’t be boring if she tried. By conventional metrics she would be a poor choice but she has star quality.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt have it too, to a lesser extent. None of the men do.
> Like him or not I think the Conservatives' only hope now is BJ.
> They are squeezed by a pincer movement from Farage and Corbyn. They have to show the leavers that they are as leavery as the Brexit Party and they have to have a charismatic leader who can face down both NF and JC. I don't see anyone else who has a smidgeon of a chance to do that.
Liz Truss. She couldn’t be boring if she tried. By conventional metrics she would be a poor choice but she has star quality.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt have it too, to a lesser extent. None of the men do.
Nice to see Truss has your support (shouldn't be needed though!). She has the right attitudes too.
> @geoffw said: > > @geoffw said: > > > Like him or not I think the Conservatives' only hope now is BJ. > > > They are squeezed by a pincer movement from Farage and Corbyn. They have to show the leavers that they are as leavery as the Brexit Party and they have to have a charismatic leader who can face down both NF and JC. I don't see anyone else who has a smidgeon of a chance to do that. > > > > Liz Truss. She couldn’t be boring if she tried. By conventional metrics she would be a poor choice but she has star quality. > > > > Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt have it too, to a lesser extent. None of the men do. > > Nice to see Truss has your support (shouldn't be needed though!). She has the right attitudes too.
I’m not sure she would be good. But she would at least be interesting.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @geoffw said: > > Like him or not I think the Conservatives' only hope now is BJ. > > They are squeezed by a pincer movement from Farage and Corbyn. They have to show the leavers that they are as leavery as the Brexit Party and they have to have a charismatic leader who can face down both NF and JC. I don't see anyone else who has a smidgeon of a chance to do that. > > Liz Truss. She couldn’t be boring if she tried. By conventional metrics she would be a poor choice but she has star quality. > > Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt have it too, to a lesser extent. None of the men do.
I agree with Liz Truss. She is IMO the only contender who has thought about messages to beat JC. She is making speeches about why the youth should love free markets because they enjoy the results so much. May not be polished, but she deserves a lot of credit for getting out there and taking Labour on with a positive message in Labours stronghold. The youth vote.
> @nico67 said: > Don’t see why there’s so much drama about Bozo becoming PM. > > Given the choice on offer which will be between hard Brexiters, it’s just variations of awfulness . > > I despise Raab who seems to be the other currently favoured , at least Johnson might offer some unintended entertainment as the UK becomes Trumps poodle .
Most Tory hopefuls, like most Brexiters, aren't racist. Johnson is though. I share the worry that others feel about elevating a racist to such a high level. Foreign Sec was already far too much in my book. It might be entertaining for some, but it's justifiably terrifying for others.
Comments
Most of them would probably be fine, but as you note it would make things more difficult.
> People like to argue that because the majority of the Labour vote in Leave areas is pro-Remain, that Labour can safely pivot to an explicitly pro-Remain position, but that ignores the effect of firing up a large part of the rest of the electorate against them. They're in a genuinely very difficult position electorally.
There is some evidence that the biggest movement in Leave to Remain is in Lab Leave areas, while the Tory shires are still steadfast Leave, outside the SE.
https://www.survation.com/what-does-the-british-public-now-think-about-brexit/
> People like to argue that because the majority of the Labour vote in Leave areas is pro-Remain, that Labour can safely pivot to an explicitly pro-Remain position, but that ignores the effect of firing up a large part of the rest of the electorate against them. They're in a genuinely very difficult position electorally.
I agree. Labour’s failure is that it has failed to make even the slightest attempt to shape public opinion about what a good Brexit outcome would look like. By being bystanders they have ended up being the problem. And now they have the problem that no one thinks they stand for anything.
I put my money on Rory Stewart several weeks ago. I think that a much diminished Tory party will want to skip a generation, will want to avoid a buffoon, and will want someone very different from what has gone before.He is the only one of the contenders who might persuade me ever to vote Tory again.
> Hopefully many more years @Big_G_NorthWales.
Thank you. We now look forward to my wifes 80th in November
They are squeezed by a pincer movement from Farage and Corbyn. They have to show the leavers that they are as leavery as the Brexit Party and they have to have a charismatic leader who can face down both NF and JC. I don't see anyone else who has a smidgeon of a chance to do that.
edit: p.s. to add, that's not to say the MPs will allow him onto the final ballot.
My ex and I managed to be blissfully happy for nearly two decades.
Unfortunately, we then met each other.
I can see an empty seat from here!!
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1129099233355816962?s=21
> I’m quite impressed that Big G is allowed on pb on his anniversary night.
My 30th anniversary this summer, and I wouldn't risk PB that night!
Congrats to Mr and Mrs BigG, who have a headstart on me and Mrs Foxy.
> Like him or not I think the Conservatives' only hope now is BJ.
> They are squeezed by a pincer movement from Farage and Corbyn. They have to show the leavers that they are as leavery as the Brexit Party and they have to have a charismatic leader who can face down both NF and JC. I don't see anyone else who has a smidgeon of a chance to do that.
Liz Truss. She couldn’t be boring if she tried. By conventional metrics she would be a poor choice but she has star quality.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt have it too, to a lesser extent. None of the men do.
>
>
> On this day 55 years ago Jan and I got married at St Geraldine's Church in Lossiemouth
Home of Ramsay Macdonald, seen here introducing his Cabinet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMyv6vFVd5w
> > @geoffw said:
>
> > Like him or not I think the Conservatives' only hope now is BJ.
>
> > They are squeezed by a pincer movement from Farage and Corbyn. They have to show the leavers that they are as leavery as the Brexit Party and they have to have a charismatic leader who can face down both NF and JC. I don't see anyone else who has a smidgeon of a chance to do that.
>
>
>
> Liz Truss. She couldn’t be boring if she tried. By conventional metrics she would be a poor choice but she has star quality.
>
>
>
> Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt have it too, to a lesser extent. None of the men do.
>
> Nice to see Truss has your support (shouldn't be needed though!). She has the right attitudes too.
I’m not sure she would be good. But she would at least be interesting.
> > @geoffw said:
> > Like him or not I think the Conservatives' only hope now is BJ.
> > They are squeezed by a pincer movement from Farage and Corbyn. They have to show the leavers that they are as leavery as the Brexit Party and they have to have a charismatic leader who can face down both NF and JC. I don't see anyone else who has a smidgeon of a chance to do that.
>
> Liz Truss. She couldn’t be boring if she tried. By conventional metrics she would be a poor choice but she has star quality.
>
> Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt have it too, to a lesser extent. None of the men do.
I agree with Liz Truss. She is IMO the only contender who has thought about messages to beat JC. She is making speeches about why the youth should love free markets because they enjoy the results so much. May not be polished, but she deserves a lot of credit for getting out there and taking Labour on with a positive message in Labours stronghold. The youth vote.
> Don’t see why there’s so much drama about Bozo becoming PM.
>
> Given the choice on offer which will be between hard Brexiters, it’s just variations of awfulness .
>
> I despise Raab who seems to be the other currently favoured , at least Johnson might offer some unintended entertainment as the UK becomes Trumps poodle .
Most Tory hopefuls, like most Brexiters, aren't racist.
Johnson is though. I share the worry that others feel about elevating a racist to such a high level. Foreign Sec was already far too much in my book.
It might be entertaining for some, but it's justifiably terrifying for others.