> @Drutt said: > > @nico67 said: > > Some weird goings on with Comres and it’s EU elections . > > > > Both the BP and Lib Dem surges hit the buffers . > > > > The BP on 27 just 2 points ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems on 13% the same as their Westminster score . > > LAB 8/1 most seats seems long for a party polling 2 points behind the leader in such an uncertain race
Perhaps. With such a wide range in the polls it might be notable that none of them have Labour in the lead.
> > Some weird goings on with Comres and it’s EU elections .
> >
> >
> >
> > Both the BP and Lib Dem surges hit the buffers .
> >
> >
> >
> > The BP on 27 just 2 points ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems on 13% the same as their Westminster score .
> >
> > The EU elections seem exceptionally difficult to poll, presumably because of the big uncertainty in turnout
>
> True . On the weekend we saw a 13 point lead for the BP and now in two polls just a two point one .
>
> I have a lot of free time today so am going to look at all the methodologies to see whether that can help to a degree explain this . We would expect normal variation between pollsters but given these ones are online we shouldn’t be seeing shy voter etc .
Is it possible BP can be explained by Andrew Marr's interview with Nigel Farage where, as some suggested might be a problem, Farage shed his cheery man-of-the-people image and came over as tetchy and, well, as just another politician complaining about being asked the wrong questions by the biased BBC?
It’s only worth comparing polls from the same company in my opinion. If one company says 34 and a couple of days later another says 26, it doesn’t mean the party is -8 in meantime.
> @nico67 said: > > @not_on_fire said: > > Some weird goings on with Comres and it’s EU elections . > > > > > > > > Both the BP and Lib Dem surges hit the buffers . > > > > > > > > The BP on 27 just 2 points ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems on 13% the same as their Westminster score . > > > > The EU elections seem exceptionally difficult to poll, presumably because of the big uncertainty in turnout > > True . On the weekend we saw a 13 point lead for the BP and now in two polls just a two point one . > > I have a lot of free time today so am going to look at all the methodologies to see whether that can help to a degree explain this . We would expect normal variation between pollsters but given these ones are online we shouldn’t be seeing shy voter etc .
Comres at the weekend had the Brexit Party on 27% so no change from them, it was Opinium which had the Brexit Party on 34%
> @Drutt said: > > @nico67 said: > > Some weird goings on with Comres and it’s EU elections . > > > > Both the BP and Lib Dem surges hit the buffers . > > > > The BP on 27 just 2 points ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems on 13% the same as their Westminster score . > > LAB 8/1 most seats seems long for a party polling 2 points behind the leader in such an uncertain race
If they had any sense they’d pull out of the talks now . This might give them a boost. I doubt any paper will be making much of these polls . They only report the ones where the BP is miles ahead .
> @Nigelb said: > > @RobD said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Thank goodness. The EU is going to help force our politicians to make a decision after they have wasted another 7 months. > > > > > > You continued reading after “No 10 say”? > > > > It might as well have said, “Anyone who wants either No Deal or Revoke shouldn’t vote for the deal.” > > Plenty of people would prefer either of those outcomes over the tomato skin flecked turd that May curled out. > > Yes, but most who prefer one of those alternate outcomes regard the other as cholera ridden diarrhoea.
Are we nearing the end of Nicola Sturgeon’s time in Scottish politics? This might seem a strange question given her dominance of the nation’s political life and her party’s seemingly unassailable position in the polls. And yet a possible change of leader is the hot topic of conversation among SNP parliamentarians and has been for some time. For Ms Sturgeon, is this the end of days?
There is only one reason for this speculation: the forthcoming trial of Alex Salmond on two charges of attempted rape, nine of sexual assault, two of indecent assault and one of breach of the peace. The former SNP leader denies any criminality. His personal reputation hangs in the balance but so too, it seems, does the political career of his successor.
For those who haven't seen the Storyville 'Fly on the wall' documentary of Verhofstad's office and the Brexit negotiations its compulsive viewing.....though you might want a stiff drink at hand.....
I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn).
Exactly. No 10 are trying to persuade more Tories to vote for the deal.
May saying she will quit in July if the WA passes is doing just what she is doing wrt the WA. She is, for better or worse, defining the least bonkers way for the country to progress which is, in its bonkers way, admirable.
Her successor will have to be a remainer-y or soft leaver type because the prospect of a Raab or Johnson or Baker or Leadsom would alienate Lab and many else besides, not to say the EU.
It is in effect saying we may all be swimming in tomato skin-flecked shit, but cholera-ridden diarrhoea really is the only other option.
Like MPs, voters know what they don't want but are a lot less clear on what they do:
Voters appear divided on whether Theresa May should resign as Prime Minister, with 40 per cent agreeing there is “no suitable replacement” if she were to stand down now compared to three in 10 (31 per cent) who disagree.
Over half (53 per cent) of the public, including seven in ten (68 per cent) 2017 Conservative voters - appeared to blame ministers for the Brexit delay, agreeing that Mrs May has been let down by her Cabinet, compared to only a quarter (26 per cent) who disagree.
For each potential leader of the Conservative Party tested, a higher proportion of the public say they would not make a good leader compared to the proportion who say they would.
The Conservatives are in for a heck of a thumping - and getting rid of May will possibly make things worse...unless her replacement has some hitherto unobserved skills....
> @Drutt said: > > @nico67 said: > > Some weird goings on with Comres and it’s EU elections . > > > > Both the BP and Lib Dem surges hit the buffers . > > > > The BP on 27 just 2 points ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems on 13% the same as their Westminster score . > > LAB 8/1 most seats seems long for a party polling 2 points behind the leader in such an uncertain race
Agreed, though I've laid BP at 1/7 since it's easier to trade. I expect them to win, but the polls are messy as hell and there are lots of unknowns in the election (some pollsters have openly questioned if BP are being polled properly, and the risk of 'casual Kippers' not switching with Farage is real). Maybe the big leads are right and they will win by 10%, but if they lost by a couple of points I'd no longer be too shocked.
> > Some weird goings on with Comres and it’s EU elections .
> >
> >
> >
> > Both the BP and Lib Dem surges hit the buffers .
> >
> >
> >
> > The BP on 27 just 2 points ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems on 13% the same as their Westminster score .
> >
> > The EU elections seem exceptionally difficult to poll, presumably because of the big uncertainty in turnout
>
> True . On the weekend we saw a 13 point lead for the BP and now in two polls just a two point one .
>
> I have a lot of free time today so am going to look at all the methodologies to see whether that can help to a degree explain this . We would expect normal variation between pollsters but given these ones are online we shouldn’t be seeing shy voter etc .
Comres at the weekend had the Brexit Party on 27% so no change from them, it was Opinium which had the Brexit Party on 34%
If you compare each pollsters poll with their own rather than zigzag between different methodologies, the Brexit Party are going upwards with all except ComRes who are steady
> @CarlottaVance said: > Like MPs, voters know what they don't want but are a lot less clear on what they do: > > Voters appear divided on whether Theresa May should resign as Prime Minister, with 40 per cent agreeing there is “no suitable replacement” if she were to stand down now compared to three in 10 (31 per cent) who disagree. > > Over half (53 per cent) of the public, including seven in ten (68 per cent) 2017 Conservative voters - appeared to blame ministers for the Brexit delay, agreeing that Mrs May has been let down by her Cabinet, compared to only a quarter (26 per cent) who disagree. > > For each potential leader of the Conservative Party tested, a higher proportion of the public say they would not make a good leader compared to the proportion who say they would. > > https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/14/even-changing-leader-will-not-save-tories-new-poll-shows-level/ > > The Conservatives are in for a heck of a thumping - and getting rid of May will possibly make things worse...unless her replacement has some hitherto unobserved skills....
Boris as Tory leader though slashed the Labour lead to just 1% and halved the Brexit Party share to just 10% in the weekend Comres.
Saying whether someone would make a good leader irrelevant without a voting intention share and asking about Corbyn and Farage too
> > Some weird goings on with Comres and it’s EU elections .
> >
> >
> >
> > Both the BP and Lib Dem surges hit the buffers .
> >
> >
> >
> > The BP on 27 just 2 points ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems on 13% the same as their Westminster score .
> >
> > The EU elections seem exceptionally difficult to poll, presumably because of the big uncertainty in turnout
>
> True . On the weekend we saw a 13 point lead for the BP and now in two polls just a two point one .
>
> I have a lot of free time today so am going to look at all the methodologies to see whether that can help to a degree explain this . We would expect normal variation between pollsters but given these ones are online we shouldn’t be seeing shy voter etc .
Comres at the weekend had the Brexit Party on 27% so no change from them, it was Opinium which had the Brexit Party on 34%
If you compare each pollsters poll with their own rather than zigzag between different methodologies, the Brexit Party are going upwards with all except ComRes who are steady
> @OblitusSumMe said: > https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714 > I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn).
Macron might and if he vetoes further extension that is it
> @OblitusSumMe said: > https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714 > I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn).
It would not be the EU forcing No Deal on Ireland, it would be Britain and everyone in Ireland knows it.
Anyone know of a bookie still offering odds on how many CHUK MPs will still be MPs after the next election? Depending on the wording, I wonder if there could be value in high numbers if they just give up and join the Lib Dems.
> @HYUFD said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714 > > I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn). > > Macron might and if he vetoes further extension that is it
Macron is not De Gaulle. He might like people to think he is, but I am not fooled.
Anyone know why Tulsi Gabbard has had a few grand matched on BF at between 11.5 and 20? At what point in the past did she look that viable? Even the 40 or so available now seems far too short.
> @Quincel said: > Anyone know of a bookie still offering odds on how many CHUK MPs will still be MPs after the next election? Depending on the wording, I wonder if there could be value in high numbers if they just give up and join the Lib Dems.
If the poll Mike references is close to being the actual outcome, Brexit party expectation management will prove to have been sub-optimal, to say the least.
> @Quincel said: > Anyone know why Tulsi Gabbard has had a few grand matched on BF at between 11.5 and 20? At what point in the past did she look that viable? Even the 40 or so available now seems far too short.
Perhaps they think she’ll be the anti war candidate.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Quincel said: > > Anyone know why Tulsi Gabbard has had a few grand matched on BF at between 11.5 and 20? At what point in the past did she look that viable? Even the 40 or so available now seems far too short. > > Perhaps they think she’ll be the anti war candidate.
No idea, but I did lay a reasonable amount at the time, and asked the same question.
> @tlg86 said: > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
> @tlg86 said: > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ?
> @tlg86 said: > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
Probably easier to play the identity card rather than have a balanced piece on the issue.
> @Nigelb said: > > @tlg86 said: > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd > > > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama > > > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white? > > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ?
But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion?
If the poll Mike references is close to being the actual outcome, Brexit party expectation management will prove to have been sub-optimal, to say the least.
So what is the leaflet score with all of you. It is a very one sided story in our house. So far nothing except Lab and LD.
Lab was the postal delivery. Not individually addressed so presumably that is it and it was bland. They did however benefit from a Royal Mail cockup and getting it delivered to us on 2 consecutive days (I wonder if that means others have missed out altogether).
LD seem to be doing individually addressed leaflets. My children got identical leaflets on the same day. My wife a different leaflet later. I don't yet have one.
In addition the LDs have done a non postal delivery.
So score is LD 4 (or should that be 3), Lab 2 (or should that be 1) Rest 0.
> @isam said: > YouGov for the Times at the weekend had an 18 point lead for the BP . > > > > BP 34 then next Lab 16. > > > > Today’s Comres BP 27 Lab 25. > > > > That’s an amazing difference. > > > It’s why you shouldn’t compare polls from different pollsters
Well it can help give a sense of how uncertain the result is, but you shouldn't use it for trajectory
> @tlg86 said: > > @Nigelb said: > > > @tlg86 said: > > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd > > > > > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama > > > > > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white? > > > > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ? > > But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion?
> @Nigelb said: > > @tlg86 said: > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd > > > > > > > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama > > > > > > > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white? > > > > > > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ? > > > > But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion? > > I can't find the polling for Alabama, but it also appears to reflect opinion on the specific issue from the evidence of Georgia: > https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/interactive-poll-georgia-voters-april-2019/UNhiJklHIc4Uf84ZKjJtML/
They passed a constitutional amendment last year on the issue with a more decisive split against abortion.
YouGov for the Times at the weekend had an 18 point lead for the BP .
BP 34 then next Lab 16.
Today’s Comres BP 27 Lab 25.
That’s an amazing difference.
It’s why you shouldn’t compare polls from different pollsters
What is particularly inexplicable to me is that ComRes prompt for the Brexit party and YouGov do not. You'd have thought the results would be the other way around as a result.
> @rottenborough said: > https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714 > > > > I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn). > > Exactly. No 10 are trying to persuade more Tories to vote for the deal.
But remainers will not vote for WA if they think they will get revoke , and no dealers will not vote for WA if they think they will get no deal, so WA has zero chance of passing, unless TM can get serious concessions from Brussels
> @Nigelb said: > > @tlg86 said: > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd > > > > > > > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama > > > > > > > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white? > > > > > > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ? > > > > But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion? > > I can't find the polling for Alabama, but it also appears to reflect opinion on the specific issue from the evidence of Georgia: > https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/interactive-poll-georgia-voters-april-2019/UNhiJklHIc4Uf84ZKjJtML/
The interesting thing there is that there is a bigger difference between white/black than male/female.
I suppose one could argue that the (democratically?) elected white politicians are in tune with the white voters, but I guess that's not the point the Guarian want to make!
> @SouthamObserver said: > If the poll Mike references is close to being the actual outcome, Brexit party expectation management will prove to have been sub-optimal, to say the least.
No, the optimal expectation management for insurgent/emerging parties such as the BP is to try and create as much as a bandwagon as possible, which essentially means talking up your chances to get more people to switch to join you, even if the final result falls short. The optimal LD expectation management strategy is the same.
Technically, the BMG isn't the "latest poll" because the fieldwork fell over 7th-10th May, so the first part of the sample was taken 8 days ago. A later poll is the Opinium for the Observer (8th-10th May - Brexit 34%, Lab 21%, LD 12%, Con 11%) and the ComRes out today (10th-12th May Brexit 27%, Lab 25%, Con 15%, LD 13%).
Although the various polling companies have results all over the place, those that form part of a series (YouGov, Opinium, ComRes) are showing reasonably stable results since the start of May. For example, YouGov and Opinium are consistently showing better polling for the Brexit Party than ComRes.
> It's really terribly simple. You declare what your house is worth, and anybody can - within 30 days of declaration - buy it for 30% more than your declaration.
>
> Result: nobody will lie and say their house is worth half the real value, as they might lose it.
Wouldn't that lead to Buckingham Palace, Chatsworth, Harewood, Castle Howard etc all being bought by oligarchs or tech billionaires at 30% over declared value ?
> Will that work, though? > > - House worth £1.2 million. > - Tax levied on declared property worth of more than £1 mio at 50% on amount above £1 mio. > - Little old lady declares house to be worth £900k. No tax therefore due. > - Thrusting rich California-based entrepreneur wishing to return home buys it at 30% more than declared value - £1.2 mio. > > Result:- > - little old lady happily retires to Corfu with her £1.2 mio to pursue romances with handsome Greek taxi drivers. > - HMRC deprived of £100k tax revenue > - Entrepreneur declares value to be £995k. > - Process rinsed and repeated. > > There may be a flaw in my reasoning. @rcs1000 said that in such a case the house would go for auction. But I don’t see how that undercuts what I am saying. Possibly I am just being thick.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > YouGov for the Times at the weekend had an 18 point lead for the BP . > > > > BP 34 then next Lab 16. > > > > Today’s Comres BP 27 Lab 25. > > > > That’s an amazing difference. > > > It’s why you shouldn’t compare polls from different pollsters > > What is particularly inexplicable to me is that ComRes prompt for the Brexit party and YouGov do not. You'd have thought the results would be the other way around as a result.
> @kjh said: > So what is the leaflet score with all of you. > So score is LD 4 (or should that be 3), Lab 2 (or should that be 1) Rest 0.
We have had one Brexit Party leaflet, addressed to our daughter who is eligible to vote in Holyrood elections, but not yet old enough for the European Parliament election. And nothing else.
We live in peak Remainer territory, so you might have expected it would be seen as rich pickings for parties wanting to be the sole Party of Remain.
The interesting thing there is that there is a bigger difference between white/black than male/female.
I suppose one could argue that the (democratically?) elected white politicians are in tune with the white voters, but I guess that's not the point the Guarian want to make!
You would have to ask the Guardian. The salient point is surely that the vote is quite unrepresentative of the views of the electorate - and even less representative of those it directly affects ?
> @Nigelb said: > > @Nigelb said: > > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd > > > > > > > > > > > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama > > > > > > > > > > > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white? > > > > > > > > > > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ? > > > > > > > > But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion? > > > > > > I can't find the polling for Alabama, but it also appears to reflect opinion on the specific issue from the evidence of Georgia: > > > https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/interactive-poll-georgia-voters-april-2019/UNhiJklHIc4Uf84ZKjJtML/ > > > > The interesting thing there is that there is a bigger difference between white/black than male/female. > > > > I suppose one could argue that the (democratically?) elected white politicians are in tune with the white voters, but I guess that's not the point the Guarian want to make! > > You would have to ask the Guardian. > The salient point is surely that the vote is quite unrepresentative of the views of the electorate - and even less representative of those it directly affects ?
The gender/ethnicity of the representatives is unrepresentative, but presumably they did get elected so presumably they have the support of the people? Or perhaps not.
The point is, the Guardian would think it was beyond the pale even if there were some black people voting it through.
> YouGov for the Times at the weekend had an 18 point lead for the BP .
>
>
>
> BP 34 then next Lab 16.
>
>
>
> Today’s Comres BP 27 Lab 25.
>
>
>
> That’s an amazing difference.
>
>
> It’s why you shouldn’t compare polls from different pollsters
>
> What is particularly inexplicable to me is that ComRes prompt for the Brexit party and YouGov do not. You'd have thought the results would be the other way around as a result.
Does either prompt for the labour party ?
Yes, both.
I looked at this question years ago in relation to UKIP, here:
YouGov for the Times at the weekend had an 18 point lead for the BP .
BP 34 then next Lab 16.
Today’s Comres BP 27 Lab 25.
That’s an amazing difference.
It’s why you shouldn’t compare polls from different pollsters
What is particularly inexplicable to me is that ComRes prompt for the Brexit party and YouGov do not. You'd have thought the results would be the other way around as a result.
I've had a leaflet for the EU elections from the Greens, the Brexit party and the English Democrats. Clearly Cambridge Analytica has some fine tuning still to do.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > What is particularly inexplicable to me is that ComRes prompt for the Brexit party and YouGov do not. You'd have thought the results would be the other way around as a result.
You would think that, after nominations had closed, they would be able to prompt with the actual list of candidates as will be present on the ballot paper, in alphabetical order.
As an aside, I was surprised to see Farage's latest cash cow on the ballot paper as "The Brexit Party" and therefore towards the bottom of the ballot, rather than as "Brexit Party" and towards the top.
> If the poll Mike references is close to being the actual outcome, Brexit party expectation management will prove to have been sub-optimal, to say the least.
No, the optimal expectation management for insurgent/emerging parties such as the BP is to try and create as much as a bandwagon as possible, which essentially means talking up your chances to get more people to switch to join you, even if the final result falls short. The optimal LD expectation management strategy is the same.
Technically, the BMG isn't the "latest poll" because the fieldwork fell over 7th-10th May, so the first part of the sample was taken 8 days ago. A later poll is the Opinium for the Observer (8th-10th May - Brexit 34%, Lab 21%, LD 12%, Con 11%) and the ComRes out today (10th-12th May Brexit 27%, Lab 25%, Con 15%, LD 13%).
Although the various polling companies have results all over the place, those that form part of a series (YouGov, Opinium, ComRes) are showing reasonably stable results since the start of May. For example, YouGov and Opinium are consistently showing better polling for the Brexit Party than ComRes.
It also gives people who want them to fail small consolation when they win without polling as well as their highest opinion poll score
> @Scott_P said: > I'm sure Nicola could do with good news..... > > > Are we nearing the end of Nicola Sturgeon’s time in Scottish politics? This might seem a strange question given her dominance of the nation’s political life and her party’s seemingly unassailable position in the polls. And yet a possible change of leader is the hot topic of conversation among SNP parliamentarians and has been for some time. For Ms Sturgeon, is this the end of days? > > There is only one reason for this speculation: the forthcoming trial of Alex Salmond on two charges of attempted rape, nine of sexual assault, two of indecent assault and one of breach of the peace. The former SNP leader denies any criminality. His personal reputation hangs in the balance but so too, it seems, does the political career of his successor. > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/sturgeon-era-may-be-drawing-to-a-close-lpvndvngq
That's Kenny 'Salmond will go to Lords, Kezia for FM, Prestwick rendition flights may fatally damage SNP' Farq?
Anyone know why Tulsi Gabbard has had a few grand matched on BF at between 11.5 and 20? At what point in the past did she look that viable? Even the 40 or so available now seems far too short.
She gave a good long-form interview to Joe Rogan the other day.
If the government really thinks that the only options, if the WA is not passed, are No Deal or Revoke, why aren’t No Deal preparations being stepped up? Or maybe they are and we’re not noticing?
Imagine going into a No Deal exit in the winter months with no effective preparation.....
I know it's personally galling* when someone else gets much better odds than yourself, but you can still get 33-1 on the LibDems. That has to be worth a little flutter.
My view is that the BP will probably lead by a handful of %. Perhaps 4 or 5%. But I'm not at all sure. I don't trust very much out there at the moment. Or, rather, I don't really trust the polling. There seem to be an awful lot of anecdotal messages about people switching to the LibDems ...
*Though I'm also thrilled if someone makes a stack with great odds. Especially if it's Mike
> @Cyclefree said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > > > > > > It's really terribly simple. You declare what your house is worth, and anybody can - within 30 days of declaration - buy it for 30% more than your declaration. > > > > > > Result: nobody will lie and say their house is worth half the real value, as they might lose it. > > > > Wouldn't that lead to Buckingham Palace, Chatsworth, Harewood, Castle Howard etc all being bought by oligarchs or tech billionaires at 30% over declared value ? > > > > Will that work, though? > > > > - House worth £1.2 million. > > - Tax levied on declared property worth of more than £1 mio at 50% on amount above £1 mio. > > - Little old lady declares house to be worth £900k. No tax therefore due. > > - Thrusting rich California-based entrepreneur wishing to return home buys it at 30% more than declared value - £1.2 mio. > > > > Result:- > > - little old lady happily retires to Corfu with her £1.2 mio to pursue romances with handsome Greek taxi drivers. > > - HMRC deprived of £100k tax revenue > > - Entrepreneur declares value to be £995k. > > - Process rinsed and repeated. > > > > There may be a flaw in my reasoning. @rcs1000 said that in such a case the house would go for auction. But I don’t see how that undercuts what I am saying. Possibly I am just being thick.
It's a complete nonsense of an idea (the original 30% declaration). I don't want to sell my house at 30% above current value. How long would I get to move out under those circumstances? What's the impact on school applications? Who do I get to value it in the first place - presumably estate agents would no longer do it for free if they can be sued for the consequences of being way off? Do I have to let prospective buyers in to view it within the 30 day period?
> @HYUFD said: > > @Slackbladder said: > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714 > > > I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn). > > > > It must be revoke now then. No parliment will tolerate no-deal. > > Revoke of course with no referendum will be an early Christmas present for Farage and see the Brexit Party surge even more
They can surge as much as they like. They'll only take seats off the Tories which will make Brexit even less likely and it might give Brexiteers something to occupy their time while ITV think of a suitable replacement for Jeremy Kyle
> > > I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn).
> >
> > It must be revoke now then. No parliment will tolerate no-deal.
>
> Revoke of course with no referendum will be an early Christmas present for Farage and see the Brexit Party surge even more
They can surge as much as they like. They'll only take seats off the Tories which will make Brexit even less likely and it might give Brexiteers something to occupy their time while ITV think of a suitable replacement for Jeremy Kyle
I don't think we can assume Farage will only take seats off Tories.
If we are in our very own National Populist moment, then anything can happen.
The parish council in Highworth (a satellite town of Swindon, and not a million miles from here) had contested elections. The Conservative slate were all elected with over 3200 votes each.
The only problem is that only 2447 people voted. It transpires that one of the electoral staff had a problem with the whole counting lark.
(The Conservative group leader, a Mr R Mugabe, has refused to comment.)
YouGov for the Times at the weekend had an 18 point lead for the BP .
BP 34 then next Lab 16.
Today’s Comres BP 27 Lab 25.
That’s an amazing difference.
It’s why you shouldn’t compare polls from different pollsters
What is particularly inexplicable to me is that ComRes prompt for the Brexit party and YouGov do not. You'd have thought the results would be the other way around as a result.
Yougov did prompt for the Brexit Party, and every party in the respondent’s region.
Note they also did that in their final poll of the 2014 election where they got the UKIP share spot on. In fact Yougov had an interesting variant in their questioning last election where they lead the participants by pointing out it was a proportional election where smaller parties could do better.
Two Lib Dem leaflets from us in the current cycle - one quite a while ago, and one in the last few days. Not a peep from the others.
It makes me wonder if the Lib Dems are targeting South Cambridgeshire? Heiki Allen had a 16k majority over Labour, with the Lib Dems another 5 behind, but the Lib Dems were within 7k as recently as 2010. With Allen in CUK, I wonder if the Lib Dems sniff a chance?
> @Cyclefree said: > If the government really thinks that the only options, if the WA is not passed, are No Deal or Revoke, why aren’t No Deal preparations being stepped up? Or maybe they are and we’re not noticing? > > Imagine going into a No Deal exit in the winter months with no effective preparation.....
All the No Deal preparations have been cancelled, or perhaps mothballed. You would expect it would be one of the first things a new Leaver PM would do, to restart them at great expense.
I don't suppose at the end of the elections the headline writers will be adding together all the remain party votes, however if they were it seems Lib Dems are hovering in a difficult place where they will pick up 1 MEP everywhere but might have a lost of wasted votes depriving Greens or even Change UK of potential MEPs. Lib Dems need to surge beyond 20% (which is plausible) to ensure this doesn't happen.
> @El_Capitano said: > This is spectacular: > > https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/highworth-council-election-count-petition-high-court-local-elections/ > > The parish council in Highworth (a satellite town of Swindon, and not a million miles from here) had contested elections. The Conservative slate were all elected with over 3200 votes each. > > The only problem is that only 2447 people voted. It transpires that one of the electoral staff had a problem with the whole counting lark. > > (The Conservative group leader, a Mr R Mugabe, has refused to comment.)
> @Cyclefree said: > If the government really thinks that the only options, if the WA is not passed, are No Deal or Revoke, why aren’t No Deal preparations being stepped up? Or maybe they are and we’re not noticing? > > Imagine going into a No Deal exit in the winter months with no effective preparation.....
> @JosiasJessop said: > Two Lib Dem leaflets from us in the current cycle - one quite a while ago, and one in the last few days. Not a peep from the others. > > It makes me wonder if the Lib Dems are targeting South Cambridgeshire? Heiki Allen had a 16k majority over Labour, with the Lib Dems another 5 behind, but the Lib Dems were within 7k as recently as 2010. With Allen in CUK, I wonder if the Lib Dems sniff a chance?
Not necessarily. I've had precisely the same leafleting up here. More like the LDs are the ones with their arses in gear.
> @RobD said: > > @El_Capitano said: > > This is spectacular: > > > > https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/highworth-council-election-count-petition-high-court-local-elections/ > > > > The parish council in Highworth (a satellite town of Swindon, and not a million miles from here) had contested elections. The Conservative slate were all elected with over 3200 votes each. > > > > The only problem is that only 2447 people voted. It transpires that one of the electoral staff had a problem with the whole counting lark. > > > > (The Conservative group leader, a Mr R Mugabe, has refused to comment.) > > We need better ballot stuffers.
One for the Tories to take the high ground and get a candidate to call for a recount. A clearer error is not possible and they will undermine faith in them in a marginal seat if they don’t do that!
> @nico67 said: > Comres v YouGov. > > We can start seeing why there are such big differences. > > The turnout is key . > > It’s the bigger difference between over 65s voting versus the rest. > > Comres has all voting groups between a much narrower range . YouGov has a much bigger lead for over 65s . > > That age range is the biggest supporter of the BP. >
There's nothing strange about polling companies showing divergent results. They ought to, if they're doing their jobs properly.
Comments
> > @nico67 said:
> > Some weird goings on with Comres and it’s EU elections .
> >
> > Both the BP and Lib Dem surges hit the buffers .
> >
> > The BP on 27 just 2 points ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems on 13% the same as their Westminster score .
>
> LAB 8/1 most seats seems long for a party polling 2 points behind the leader in such an uncertain race
Perhaps. With such a wide range in the polls it might be notable that none of them have Labour in the lead.
No change, and no deal agreement, means no deal.
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > Some weird goings on with Comres and it’s EU elections .
> >
> >
> >
> > Both the BP and Lib Dem surges hit the buffers .
> >
> >
> >
> > The BP on 27 just 2 points ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems on 13% the same as their Westminster score .
> >
> > The EU elections seem exceptionally difficult to poll, presumably because of the big uncertainty in turnout
>
> True . On the weekend we saw a 13 point lead for the BP and now in two polls just a two point one .
>
> I have a lot of free time today so am going to look at all the methodologies to see whether that can help to a degree explain this . We would expect normal variation between pollsters but given these ones are online we shouldn’t be seeing shy voter etc .
Comres at the weekend had the Brexit Party on 27% so no change from them, it was Opinium which had the Brexit Party on 34%
> > @nico67 said:
> > Some weird goings on with Comres and it’s EU elections .
> >
> > Both the BP and Lib Dem surges hit the buffers .
> >
> > The BP on 27 just 2 points ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems on 13% the same as their Westminster score .
>
> LAB 8/1 most seats seems long for a party polling 2 points behind the leader in such an uncertain race
If they had any sense they’d pull out of the talks now . This might give them a boost. I doubt any paper will be making much of these polls . They only report the ones where the BP is miles ahead .
> > @RobD said:
>
> > > @williamglenn said:
>
> >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Thank goodness. The EU is going to help force our politicians to make a decision after they have wasted another 7 months.
>
> >
>
> > You continued reading after “No 10 say”?
>
>
>
> It might as well have said, “Anyone who wants either No Deal or Revoke shouldn’t vote for the deal.”
>
> Plenty of people would prefer either of those outcomes over the tomato skin flecked turd that May curled out.
>
> Yes, but most who prefer one of those alternate outcomes regard the other as cholera ridden diarrhoea.
FFS some of us are eating breakfast!
https://twitter.com/TheHeraldEditor/status/1128565930752192512
Are we nearing the end of Nicola Sturgeon’s time in Scottish politics? This might seem a strange question given her dominance of the nation’s political life and her party’s seemingly unassailable position in the polls. And yet a possible change of leader is the hot topic of conversation among SNP parliamentarians and has been for some time. For Ms Sturgeon, is this the end of days?
There is only one reason for this speculation: the forthcoming trial of Alex Salmond on two charges of attempted rape, nine of sexual assault, two of indecent assault and one of breach of the peace. The former SNP leader denies any criminality. His personal reputation hangs in the balance but so too, it seems, does the political career of his successor.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/sturgeon-era-may-be-drawing-to-a-close-lpvndvngq
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1128361192462925824
For those who haven't seen the Storyville 'Fly on the wall' documentary of Verhofstad's office and the Brexit negotiations its compulsive viewing.....though you might want a stiff drink at hand.....
Her successor will have to be a remainer-y or soft leaver type because the prospect of a Raab or Johnson or Baker or Leadsom would alienate Lab and many else besides, not to say the EU.
It is in effect saying we may all be swimming in tomato skin-flecked shit, but cholera-ridden diarrhoea really is the only other option.
Voters appear divided on whether Theresa May should resign as Prime Minister, with 40 per cent agreeing there is “no suitable replacement” if she were to stand down now compared to three in 10 (31 per cent) who disagree.
Over half (53 per cent) of the public, including seven in ten (68 per cent) 2017 Conservative voters - appeared to blame ministers for the Brexit delay, agreeing that Mrs May has been let down by her Cabinet, compared to only a quarter (26 per cent) who disagree.
For each potential leader of the Conservative Party tested, a higher proportion of the public say they would not make a good leader compared to the proportion who say they would.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/14/even-changing-leader-will-not-save-tories-new-poll-shows-level/
The Conservatives are in for a heck of a thumping - and getting rid of May will possibly make things worse...unless her replacement has some hitherto unobserved skills....
> > @nico67 said:
> > Some weird goings on with Comres and it’s EU elections .
> >
> > Both the BP and Lib Dem surges hit the buffers .
> >
> > The BP on 27 just 2 points ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems on 13% the same as their Westminster score .
>
> LAB 8/1 most seats seems long for a party polling 2 points behind the leader in such an uncertain race
Agreed, though I've laid BP at 1/7 since it's easier to trade. I expect them to win, but the polls are messy as hell and there are lots of unknowns in the election (some pollsters have openly questioned if BP are being polled properly, and the risk of 'casual Kippers' not switching with Farage is real). Maybe the big leads are right and they will win by 10%, but if they lost by a couple of points I'd no longer be too shocked.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
Quite a few have only done one or two, it will be interesting to track their results when more are published
> Like MPs, voters know what they don't want but are a lot less clear on what they do:
>
> Voters appear divided on whether Theresa May should resign as Prime Minister, with 40 per cent agreeing there is “no suitable replacement” if she were to stand down now compared to three in 10 (31 per cent) who disagree.
>
> Over half (53 per cent) of the public, including seven in ten (68 per cent) 2017 Conservative voters - appeared to blame ministers for the Brexit delay, agreeing that Mrs May has been let down by her Cabinet, compared to only a quarter (26 per cent) who disagree.
>
> For each potential leader of the Conservative Party tested, a higher proportion of the public say they would not make a good leader compared to the proportion who say they would.
>
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/14/even-changing-leader-will-not-save-tories-new-poll-shows-level/
>
> The Conservatives are in for a heck of a thumping - and getting rid of May will possibly make things worse...unless her replacement has some hitherto unobserved skills....
Boris as Tory leader though slashed the Labour lead to just 1% and halved the Brexit Party share to just 10% in the weekend Comres.
Saying whether someone would make a good leader irrelevant without a voting intention share and asking about Corbyn and Farage too
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02639904.2019.1599566
I'm liking the "triphthongs, quadriphthongs and even quintiphthongs" in the proto-Romance language.
> I'm sure Nicola could do with good news.....
>
> https://twitter.com/TheHeraldEditor/status/1128565930752192512
SNP no higher than its 2017 GE total and lower in most European elections polls
> https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714
> I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn).
Macron might and if he vetoes further extension that is it
> https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714
> I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn).
It would not be the EU forcing No Deal on Ireland, it would be Britain and everyone in Ireland knows it.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714
> > I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn).
>
> Macron might and if he vetoes further extension that is it
Macron is not De Gaulle. He might like people to think he is, but I am not fooled.
> Anyone know of a bookie still offering odds on how many CHUK MPs will still be MPs after the next election? Depending on the wording, I wonder if there could be value in high numbers if they just give up and join the Lib Dems.
If the LDs let them in after all their bluster!
> A (persuasive) claim that the Voynich manuscript 'code' has been cracked:
> https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02639904.2019.1599566
>
> I'm liking the "triphthongs, quadriphthongs and even quintiphthongs" in the proto-Romance language.
>
>
The Voynich community is unimpressed:
https://www.voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html
The proposed decipherment has been around for a couple of years.
> Anyone know why Tulsi Gabbard has had a few grand matched on BF at between 11.5 and 20? At what point in the past did she look that viable? Even the 40 or so available now seems far too short.
Perhaps they think she’ll be the anti war candidate.
Once again no mention of the fact they’re losing more Remain than Leave voters .
These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama
I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
> > @Quincel said:
> > Anyone know why Tulsi Gabbard has had a few grand matched on BF at between 11.5 and 20? At what point in the past did she look that viable? Even the 40 or so available now seems far too short.
>
> Perhaps they think she’ll be the anti war candidate.
No idea, but I did lay a reasonable amount at the time, and asked the same question.
> https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd
>
> These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama
>
> I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
See Candace Owens...
> https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd
>
> These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama
>
> I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ?
> https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd
>
> These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama
>
> I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
Probably easier to play the identity card rather than have a balanced piece on the issue.
BP 34 then next Lab 16.
Today’s Comres BP 27 Lab 25.
That’s an amazing difference.
> > @tlg86 said:
> > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd
> >
> > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama
> >
> > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
>
> The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ?
But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion?
It’s why you shouldn’t compare polls from different pollsters
Lab was the postal delivery. Not individually addressed so presumably that is it and it was bland. They did however benefit from a Royal Mail cockup and getting it delivered to us on 2 consecutive days (I wonder if that means others have missed out altogether).
LD seem to be doing individually addressed leaflets. My children got identical leaflets on the same day. My wife a different leaflet later. I don't yet have one.
In addition the LDs have done a non postal delivery.
So score is LD 4 (or should that be 3), Lab 2 (or should that be 1) Rest 0.
> YouGov for the Times at the weekend had an 18 point lead for the BP .
>
>
>
> BP 34 then next Lab 16.
>
>
>
> Today’s Comres BP 27 Lab 25.
>
>
>
> That’s an amazing difference.
>
>
> It’s why you shouldn’t compare polls from different pollsters
Well it can help give a sense of how uncertain the result is, but you shouldn't use it for trajectory
> > @Nigelb said:
> > > @tlg86 said:
> > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd
> > >
> > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama
> > >
> > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
> >
> > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ?
>
> But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion?
I can't find the polling for Alabama, but it also appears to reflect opinion on the specific issue from the evidence of Georgia:
https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/interactive-poll-georgia-voters-april-2019/UNhiJklHIc4Uf84ZKjJtML/
http://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1128583645881602048
> > @tlg86 said:
> > > @Nigelb said:
> > > > @tlg86 said:
> > > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd
> > > >
> > > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama
> > > >
> > > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
> > >
> > > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ?
> >
> > But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion?
>
> I can't find the polling for Alabama, but it also appears to reflect opinion on the specific issue from the evidence of Georgia:
> https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/interactive-poll-georgia-voters-april-2019/UNhiJklHIc4Uf84ZKjJtML/
They passed a constitutional amendment last year on the issue with a more decisive split against abortion.
> https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1128585192787140610
A bit cheeky, from a Times journalist.
> https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714
>
>
>
> I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn).
>
> Exactly. No 10 are trying to persuade more Tories to vote for the deal.
But remainers will not vote for WA if they think they will get revoke , and no dealers will not vote for WA if they think they will get no deal, so WA has zero chance of passing, unless TM can get serious concessions from Brussels
> > @tlg86 said:
> > > @Nigelb said:
> > > > @tlg86 said:
> > > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd
> > > >
> > > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama
> > > >
> > > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
> > >
> > > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ?
> >
> > But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion?
>
> I can't find the polling for Alabama, but it also appears to reflect opinion on the specific issue from the evidence of Georgia:
> https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/interactive-poll-georgia-voters-april-2019/UNhiJklHIc4Uf84ZKjJtML/
The interesting thing there is that there is a bigger difference between white/black than male/female.
I suppose one could argue that the (democratically?) elected white politicians are in tune with the white voters, but I guess that's not the point the Guarian want to make!
> If the poll Mike references is close to being the actual outcome, Brexit party expectation management will prove to have been sub-optimal, to say the least.
No, the optimal expectation management for insurgent/emerging parties such as the BP is to try and create as much as a bandwagon as possible, which essentially means talking up your chances to get more people to switch to join you, even if the final result falls short. The optimal LD expectation management strategy is the same.
Technically, the BMG isn't the "latest poll" because the fieldwork fell over 7th-10th May, so the first part of the sample was taken 8 days ago. A later poll is the Opinium for the Observer (8th-10th May - Brexit 34%, Lab 21%, LD 12%, Con 11%) and the ComRes out today (10th-12th May Brexit 27%, Lab 25%, Con 15%, LD 13%).
Although the various polling companies have results all over the place, those that form part of a series (YouGov, Opinium, ComRes) are showing reasonably stable results since the start of May. For example, YouGov and Opinium are consistently showing better polling for the Brexit Party than ComRes.
> Will that work, though?
>
> - House worth £1.2 million.
> - Tax levied on declared property worth of more than £1 mio at 50% on amount above £1 mio.
> - Little old lady declares house to be worth £900k. No tax therefore due.
> - Thrusting rich California-based entrepreneur wishing to return home buys it at 30% more than declared value - £1.2 mio.
>
> Result:-
> - little old lady happily retires to Corfu with her £1.2 mio to pursue romances with handsome Greek taxi drivers.
> - HMRC deprived of £100k tax revenue
> - Entrepreneur declares value to be £995k.
> - Process rinsed and repeated.
>
> There may be a flaw in my reasoning. @rcs1000 said that in such a case the house would go for auction. But I don’t see how that undercuts what I am saying. Possibly I am just being thick.
> YouGov for the Times at the weekend had an 18 point lead for the BP .
>
>
>
> BP 34 then next Lab 16.
>
>
>
> Today’s Comres BP 27 Lab 25.
>
>
>
> That’s an amazing difference.
>
>
> It’s why you shouldn’t compare polls from different pollsters
>
> What is particularly inexplicable to me is that ComRes prompt for the Brexit party and YouGov do not. You'd have thought the results would be the other way around as a result.
Does either prompt for the labour party ?
> So what is the leaflet score with all of you.
> So score is LD 4 (or should that be 3), Lab 2 (or should that be 1) Rest 0.
We have had one Brexit Party leaflet, addressed to our daughter who is eligible to vote in Holyrood elections, but not yet old enough for the European Parliament election. And nothing else.
We live in peak Remainer territory, so you might have expected it would be seen as rich pickings for parties wanting to be the sole Party of Remain.
The salient point is surely that the vote is quite unrepresentative of the views of the electorate - and even less representative of those it directly affects ?
> > @Nigelb said:
>
> > > @tlg86 said:
>
> > > > @Nigelb said:
>
> > > > > @tlg86 said:
>
> > > > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
>
> > > >
>
> > > > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ?
>
> > >
>
> > > But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion?
>
> >
>
> > I can't find the polling for Alabama, but it also appears to reflect opinion on the specific issue from the evidence of Georgia:
>
> > https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/interactive-poll-georgia-voters-april-2019/UNhiJklHIc4Uf84ZKjJtML/
>
>
>
> The interesting thing there is that there is a bigger difference between white/black than male/female.
>
>
>
> I suppose one could argue that the (democratically?) elected white politicians are in tune with the white voters, but I guess that's not the point the Guarian want to make!
>
> You would have to ask the Guardian.
> The salient point is surely that the vote is quite unrepresentative of the views of the electorate - and even less representative of those it directly affects ?
The gender/ethnicity of the representatives is unrepresentative, but presumably they did get elected so presumably they have the support of the people? Or perhaps not.
The point is, the Guardian would think it was beyond the pale even if there were some black people voting it through.
I looked at this question years ago in relation to UKIP, here:
https://newstonoone.blogspot.com/2014/11/reading-entrails-few-polling.html
It's genuinely hard for the pollsters, catering for lower information voters who may also tend to be the less motivated to go to the polling booths.
> I have yet to receive any election literature at all from the Labour party. None. In a Labour seat.
We got a leaflet for Labour last week... Nothing from any other party yet.
>
> What is particularly inexplicable to me is that ComRes prompt for the Brexit party and YouGov do not. You'd have thought the results would be the other way around as a result.
You would think that, after nominations had closed, they would be able to prompt with the actual list of candidates as will be present on the ballot paper, in alphabetical order.
As an aside, I was surprised to see Farage's latest cash cow on the ballot paper as "The Brexit Party" and therefore towards the bottom of the ballot, rather than as "Brexit Party" and towards the top.
We can start seeing why there are such big differences.
The turnout is key .
It’s the bigger difference between over 65s voting versus the rest.
Comres has all voting groups between a much narrower range . YouGov has a much bigger lead for over 65s .
That age range is the biggest supporter of the BP.
https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-kyle-show-axed-by-itv-after-death-of-guest-steve-dymond-11720482
It won't be missed...
It beat others by over 10 points . Remainers really need to get out and vote .
> I'm sure Nicola could do with good news.....
>
>
> Are we nearing the end of Nicola Sturgeon’s time in Scottish politics? This might seem a strange question given her dominance of the nation’s political life and her party’s seemingly unassailable position in the polls. And yet a possible change of leader is the hot topic of conversation among SNP parliamentarians and has been for some time. For Ms Sturgeon, is this the end of days?
>
> There is only one reason for this speculation: the forthcoming trial of Alex Salmond on two charges of attempted rape, nine of sexual assault, two of indecent assault and one of breach of the peace. The former SNP leader denies any criminality. His personal reputation hangs in the balance but so too, it seems, does the political career of his successor.
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/sturgeon-era-may-be-drawing-to-a-close-lpvndvngq
That's Kenny 'Salmond will go to Lords, Kezia for FM, Prestwick rendition flights may fatally damage SNP' Farq?
> And so it begins:
>
> http://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1128583645881602048
A flighty sort it would appear.
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/1128583076093800448
Imagine going into a No Deal exit in the winter months with no effective preparation.....
My view is that the BP will probably lead by a handful of %. Perhaps 4 or 5%. But I'm not at all sure. I don't trust very much out there at the moment. Or, rather, I don't really trust the polling. There seem to be an awful lot of anecdotal messages about people switching to the LibDems ...
*Though I'm also thrilled if someone makes a stack with great odds. Especially if it's Mike
> > @rcs1000 said:
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It's really terribly simple. You declare what your house is worth, and anybody can - within 30 days of declaration - buy it for 30% more than your declaration.
>
> >
>
> > Result: nobody will lie and say their house is worth half the real value, as they might lose it.
>
>
>
> Wouldn't that lead to Buckingham Palace, Chatsworth, Harewood, Castle Howard etc all being bought by oligarchs or tech billionaires at 30% over declared value ?
>
>
> > Will that work, though?
> >
> > - House worth £1.2 million.
> > - Tax levied on declared property worth of more than £1 mio at 50% on amount above £1 mio.
> > - Little old lady declares house to be worth £900k. No tax therefore due.
> > - Thrusting rich California-based entrepreneur wishing to return home buys it at 30% more than declared value - £1.2 mio.
> >
> > Result:-
> > - little old lady happily retires to Corfu with her £1.2 mio to pursue romances with handsome Greek taxi drivers.
> > - HMRC deprived of £100k tax revenue
> > - Entrepreneur declares value to be £995k.
> > - Process rinsed and repeated.
> >
> > There may be a flaw in my reasoning. @rcs1000 said that in such a case the house would go for auction. But I don’t see how that undercuts what I am saying. Possibly I am just being thick.
It's a complete nonsense of an idea (the original 30% declaration). I don't want to sell my house at 30% above current value. How long would I get to move out under those circumstances? What's the impact on school applications? Who do I get to value it in the first place - presumably estate agents would no longer do it for free if they can be sued for the consequences of being way off? Do I have to let prospective buyers in to view it within the 30 day period?
>
> It beat others by over 10 points . Remainers really need to get out and vote .
The LibDem machine is very efficient ...
> > @Slackbladder said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714
> > > I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn).
> >
> > It must be revoke now then. No parliment will tolerate no-deal.
>
> Revoke of course with no referendum will be an early Christmas present for Farage and see the Brexit Party surge even more
They can surge as much as they like. They'll only take seats off the Tories which will make Brexit even less likely and it might give Brexiteers something to occupy their time while ITV think of a suitable replacement for Jeremy Kyle
If we are in our very own National Populist moment, then anything can happen.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/highworth-council-election-count-petition-high-court-local-elections/
The parish council in Highworth (a satellite town of Swindon, and not a million miles from here) had contested elections. The Conservative slate were all elected with over 3200 votes each.
The only problem is that only 2447 people voted. It transpires that one of the electoral staff had a problem with the whole counting lark.
(The Conservative group leader, a Mr R Mugabe, has refused to comment.)
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1128592605049176065
Note they also did that in their final poll of the 2014 election where they got the UKIP share spot on. In fact Yougov had an interesting variant in their questioning last election where they lead the participants by pointing out it was a proportional election where smaller parties could do better.
It makes me wonder if the Lib Dems are targeting South Cambridgeshire? Heiki Allen had a 16k majority over Labour, with the Lib Dems another 5 behind, but the Lib Dems were within 7k as recently as 2010. With Allen in CUK, I wonder if the Lib Dems sniff a chance?
My postal vote went in this morning.
> If the government really thinks that the only options, if the WA is not passed, are No Deal or Revoke, why aren’t No Deal preparations being stepped up? Or maybe they are and we’re not noticing?
>
> Imagine going into a No Deal exit in the winter months with no effective preparation.....
All the No Deal preparations have been cancelled, or perhaps mothballed. You would expect it would be one of the first things a new Leaver PM would do, to restart them at great expense.
> I'm not sure pro-Remain people are dismayed by the Lib Dem surge consolidating the pro-Remain vote...
>
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1128592605049176065
I don't suppose at the end of the elections the headline writers will be adding together all the remain party votes, however if they were it seems Lib Dems are hovering in a difficult place where they will pick up 1 MEP everywhere but might have a lost of wasted votes depriving Greens or even Change UK of potential MEPs. Lib Dems need to surge beyond 20% (which is plausible) to ensure this doesn't happen.
> This is spectacular:
>
> https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/highworth-council-election-count-petition-high-court-local-elections/
>
> The parish council in Highworth (a satellite town of Swindon, and not a million miles from here) had contested elections. The Conservative slate were all elected with over 3200 votes each.
>
> The only problem is that only 2447 people voted. It transpires that one of the electoral staff had a problem with the whole counting lark.
>
> (The Conservative group leader, a Mr R Mugabe, has refused to comment.)
We need better ballot stuffers.
It's remarkable that we have a woeful Government and an even worse Opposition.
No wonder a new party can top polls and the Lib Dems can come roaring back.
Under these circumstances, it makes the CUKs all the more unimpressive.
> If the government really thinks that the only options, if the WA is not passed, are No Deal or Revoke, why aren’t No Deal preparations being stepped up? Or maybe they are and we’re not noticing?
>
> Imagine going into a No Deal exit in the winter months with no effective preparation.....
Those are the options if May stays as PM.
She shouldn't beyond the next two weeks.
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1128185008856940545
If you’ve moved to the BP you’re obviously very motivated. Equally the Lib Dem vote across the polls is the second in terms of turnout .
The only two near certainties next week . The BP will do very well , the other story will be the Lib Dems .
> Two Lib Dem leaflets from us in the current cycle - one quite a while ago, and one in the last few days. Not a peep from the others.
>
> It makes me wonder if the Lib Dems are targeting South Cambridgeshire? Heiki Allen had a 16k majority over Labour, with the Lib Dems another 5 behind, but the Lib Dems were within 7k as recently as 2010. With Allen in CUK, I wonder if the Lib Dems sniff a chance?
Not necessarily. I've had precisely the same leafleting up here. More like the LDs are the ones with their arses in gear.
> Boris cometh again.
>
> https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1128185008856940545
>
>
Nadine!!!!!!
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > This is spectacular:
> >
> > https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/highworth-council-election-count-petition-high-court-local-elections/
> >
> > The parish council in Highworth (a satellite town of Swindon, and not a million miles from here) had contested elections. The Conservative slate were all elected with over 3200 votes each.
> >
> > The only problem is that only 2447 people voted. It transpires that one of the electoral staff had a problem with the whole counting lark.
> >
> > (The Conservative group leader, a Mr R Mugabe, has refused to comment.)
>
> We need better ballot stuffers.
One for the Tories to take the high ground and get a candidate to call for a recount. A clearer error is not possible and they will undermine faith in them in a marginal seat if they don’t do that!
> Comres v YouGov.
>
> We can start seeing why there are such big differences.
>
> The turnout is key .
>
> It’s the bigger difference between over 65s voting versus the rest.
>
> Comres has all voting groups between a much narrower range . YouGov has a much bigger lead for over 65s .
>
> That age range is the biggest supporter of the BP.
>
There's nothing strange about polling companies showing divergent results. They ought to, if they're doing their jobs properly.