> > If a new party comes top in an election mere weeks after being formed, only a idiot would see that as anything other than a stunning victory. When has that even happened in living memory?
> @isam said: > It happens every time Farage is doing well, logic and proportion go out of the window. He is Emanuel Goldstein and this is their two minutes hate. > > I will not be voting for them, as I do not support the Brexit Party. But it is laughable the way Remainers try to down play the Brexit Party's apparent popularity. By any normal definition the Brexit Party looks like it will be the winner of the election if the polls are right. > > > It's more pitiful than laughable, its bordering on the unhinged. > > I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds?
Given that Farage's entire shtick has been based on hate of the EU and immigrants, with logic and proportion going out of the window, it's a bit rich of his supporters to complain when it is done to him.
If the Brexit Party does not do as well as they themselves are expecting then it will be seen as a relative failure.
Given that Farage's entire shtick has been based on hate of the EU and immigrants, with logic and proportion going out of the window, it's a bit rich of his supporters to complain when it is done to him.
If the Brexit Party does not do as well as they themselves are expecting then it will be seen as a relative failure.
I doubt he has ever said that he hates immigrants, and I am pretty sure he doesn't. Confusing concerns over immigration control with malice towards individuals is one of the biggest mistakes people make, deliberately or out of ignorance.
As for your second point, what is the target The Brexit Party have set themselves? It would be nice to know before the result rather than afterwards.
> @isam said: > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit. > > In 2016 everyone on here was saying Farage was nothing to do with Leaves victory, in fact they said he was a hindrance
Well what can I say, they were wrong. No Nigel, No Brexit.
And as we can also see now - No Brexit, LOADS of Nigel.
> @isam said: > It happens every time Farage is doing well, logic and proportion go out of the window. He is Emanuel Goldstein and this is their two minutes hate. > > I will not be voting for them, as I do not support the Brexit Party. But it is laughable the way Remainers try to down play the Brexit Party's apparent popularity. By any normal definition the Brexit Party looks like it will be the winner of the election if the polls are right. > > > It's more pitiful than laughable, its bordering on the unhinged. > > I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say to yourself "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds?
> @TGOHF said: > > @kinabalu said: > > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit. > > Yes I'm sure everyone will put the issue to bed, get over the idea and nobody will mention the £12Bn and rising pa ever again. > > Remain in practice is an idea that has yet to be contemplated in public - it will not be a pleasant experience for the nation.
If you compare each pollsters poll with their own rather than zigzag between different methodologies, the Brexit Party are going upwards with all except ComRes who are steady
> > If a new party comes top in an election mere weeks after being formed, only a idiot would see that as anything other than a stunning victory. When has that even happened in living memory?
Macron
Fair point, but I meant in the UK and I should have said so.
This food bank at Dept of Business really isn't good enough. "Payroll blunder by outsourced company" does not cut it as an excuse for workers not being paid. And a food bank is not a sufficient solution. An advance, or at the very least interest free loan till it is sorted would be. Not like the government can't find money when it needs to.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > It happens every time Farage is doing well, logic and proportion go out of the window. He is Emanuel Goldstein and this is their two minutes hate. > > > > > > I will not be voting for them, as I do not support the Brexit Party. But it is laughable the way Remainers try to down play the Brexit Party's apparent popularity. By any normal definition the Brexit Party looks like it will be the winner of the election if the polls are right. > > > > > > > > > It's more pitiful than laughable, its bordering on the unhinged. > > > > > > I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds? > > > > Given that Farage's entire shtick has been based on hate of the EU and immigrants, with logic and proportion going out of the window, it's a bit rich of his supporters to complain when it is done to him. > > > > If the Brexit Party does not do as well as they themselves are expecting then it will be seen as a relative failure. > > I doubt he has ever said that he hates immigrants, and I am pretty sure he doesn't. Confusing concerns over immigration control with malice towards individuals is one of the biggest mistakes people make, deliberately or out of ignorance. > > As for your second point, what is the target The Brexit Party have set themselves? It would be nice to know before the result rather than afterwards.
On your second point, I don't know. Given the poll figures, any figure below that could look disappointing.
On the first, Farage has over the years said things about immigrants which indicate a dislike of them as a class rather than a concern about how best to control immigration. I find it hard to consider him sincere about his concerns over FoM when his main poster during the referendum was about migrants/asylum seekers fleeing from wars outside the EU rather than about the consequences of FoM. If he were really interested in control, he would have been pushing for the government to use the controls it currently has, even under FoM, rather than making generalised untrue statements.
> @dixiedean said: > This food bank at Dept of Business really isn't good enough. "Payroll blunder by outsourced company" does not cut it as an excuse for workers not being paid. And a food bank is not a sufficient solution. > An advance, or at the very least interest free loan till it is sorted would be. Not like the government can't find money when it needs to.
If the experience of the Canadian Tories in 1993 is anything to go by the bulk of the Tories and the carcass will end up in the Brexit Party with the remainder forming a rump Tory Party for a decade or so until the Brexit Party take it over. At that point a new Conservative Party will be formed more right-wing and populist than the old one but with a few wet Tories defecting to the Liberals
It's more pitiful than laughable, its bordering on the unhinged.
I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say to yourself "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds?
I haven't noticed anything on here; I think we are all intrigued about how TBP does. As I said in a previous post I have backed everyone apart from Change UK and TBP for the euros, the former because they are hopeless, the latter because I just don't think a brand new party should be at five to one on for their first ever election. But we shall see in a week's time.
If they smash it it will show that the core of Brexiters really, really cares. But that is beside the point at the moment. We know the core of Brexiters really really cares. The challenge is to determine what flavour of Brexit, if any, we get.
As for betting, well imo lay the favourite (especially in Peterborough) was invented for these types of events.
> @Sean_F said: > > @kinabalu said: > > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit. > > And if TBP come first?
Which surely they will. Regardless, I have put up my model for interpretation - England only.
LEAVE = BP + UKIP + 0.5xCON + 0.25xLAB
Apply Contingency uplift of 5%.
Then compare to Ref1 and see if there appears to be a material move either way.
> @dixiedean said: > This food bank at Dept of Business really isn't good enough. "Payroll blunder by outsourced company" does not cut it as an excuse for workers not being paid. And a food bank is not a sufficient solution. > An advance, or at the very least interest free loan till it is sorted would be. Not like the government can't find money when it needs to.
Shameful by the company. I hope they get heavily fined and the money compensates the workers.
May has said this will be her last try at the WA and if it fails she will almost certainly resign and let her successor deal with the consequences of Revoke or No Deal in October given Macron is likely to veto further extension. As the Brexit Party surges further or the economy tanks and the Union starts to fracture based on the Commons and new PM's decision I expect May will be enjoying a well deserved cruise with Philip and plenty of glasses of schaudenfraude
I can also recall the breezy certainty of certain pb.com tories that the EU would do a last minute fudge on the backstop.
Ah, happy days. Up there with "the German car manufacturers will save us", "only the British can make Airbus wings", "the Irish border isn't important" and "The EU will suffer more than us". Currently sharing chart space with "the EU will throw us out because of all the Eurosceptics in the new EP". Where did all those happy songs go, long ago?
If you compare each pollsters poll with their own rather than zigzag between different methodologies, the Brexit Party are going upwards with all except ComRes who are steady
Quite a few have only done one or two, it will be interesting to track their results when more are published
You are IMHO correct: within-pollster variation is more meaningful than between-pollster variation.
In 2015 I tracked these movements for the last few weeks of the GE campaign and there was a definite move towards the Conservatives and away from Labour. I recommended backing a Con minority at 13/2, but was following the PB crowd too much for my mind to be open to Con Maj
Done my brains backing UKIP in constituency bets instead!
> @kinabalu said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit. > > > > And if TBP come first? > > Which surely they will. Regardless, I have put up my model for interpretation - England only. > > LEAVE = BP + UKIP + 0.5xCON + 0.25xLAB > > Apply Contingency uplift of 5%. > > Then compare to Ref1 and see if there appears to be a material move either way.
If Vince beats Nigel I'll eat my hat/kilt/pantaloons.
It's more pitiful than laughable, its bordering on the unhinged.
I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say to yourself "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds?
I haven't noticed anything on here; I think we are all intrigued about how TBP does. As I said in a previous post I have backed everyone apart from Change UK and TBP for the euros, the former because they are hopeless, the latter because I just don't think a brand new party should be at five to one on for their first ever election. But we shall see in a week's time.
If they smash it it will show that the core of Brexiters really, really cares. But that is beside the point at the moment. We know the core of Brexiters really really cares. The challenge is to determine what flavour of Brexit, if any, we get.
As for betting, well imo lay the favourite (especially in Peterborough) was invented for these types of events.
If TBP don't exceed their best poll showing, it will be described on here as a failure. Absolute madness, but there you go.
Personally I think it's an interesting enough event to watch without feeling the need to indulge in expectation management on others behalf.
If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ...
If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
I know you’re trolling, but a better comparable would be petition signatories in any 12 hour period of your choice
If you compare each pollsters poll with their own rather than zigzag between different methodologies, the Brexit Party are going upwards with all except ComRes who are steady
Quite a few have only done one or two, it will be interesting to track their results when more are published
You are IMHO correct: within-pollster variation is more meaningful than between-pollster variation.
In 2015 I tracked these movements for the last few weeks of the GE campaign and there was a definite move towards the Conservatives and away from Labour. I recommended backing a Con minority at 13/2, but was following the PB crowd too much for my mind to be open to Con Maj
Done my brains backing UKIP in constituency bets instead!
Gaagh, constituency odds require far too much study than I can afford. I think Chris Hanretty (LSE?) did some work on them but I'm on the tablet and cannot cut-and-paste...
It's more pitiful than laughable, its bordering on the unhinged.
I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say to yourself "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds?
I haven't noticed anything on here; I think we are all intrigued about how TBP does. As I said in a previous post I have backed everyone apart from Change UK and TBP for the euros, the former because they are hopeless, the latter because I just don't think a brand new party should be at five to one on for their first ever election. But we shall see in a week's time.
If they smash it it will show that the core of Brexiters really, really cares. But that is beside the point at the moment. We know the core of Brexiters really really cares. The challenge is to determine what flavour of Brexit, if any, we get.
As for betting, well imo lay the favourite (especially in Peterborough) was invented for these types of events.
If TBP don't exceed their best poll showing, it will be described on here as a failure. Absolute madness, but there you go.
Personally I think it's an interesting enough event to watch without feeling the need to indulge in expectation management on others behalf.
I think you're right that it would be described as a failure but a heavily odds-on favourite is expected to win and win pulling up.
May has said this will be her last try at the WA and if it fails she will almost certainly resign and let her successor deal with the consequences of Revoke or No Deal in October given Macron is likely to veto further extension. As the Brexit Party surges further or the economy tanks and the Union starts to fracture based on the Commons and new PM's decision I expect May will be enjoying a well deserved cruise with Philip and plenty of glasses of schaudenfraude
> @TOPPING said: > It's more pitiful than laughable, its bordering on the unhinged. > > I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say to yourself "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds? > > I haven't noticed anything on here; I think we are all intrigued about how TBP does. As I said in a previous post I have backed everyone apart from Change UK and TBP for the euros, the former because they are hopeless, the latter because I just don't think a brand new party should be at five to one on for their first ever election. But we shall see in a week's time. > > If they smash it it will show that the core of Brexiters really, really cares. But that is beside the point at the moment. We know the core of Brexiters really really cares. The challenge is to determine what flavour of Brexit, if any, we get. > > As for betting, well imo lay the favourite (especially in Peterborough) was invented for these types of events. > > If TBP don't exceed their best poll showing, it will be described on here as a failure. Absolute madness, but there you go. > > Personally I think it's an interesting enough event to watch without feeling the need to indulge in expectation management on others behalf. > > I think you're right that it would be described as a failure but a heavily odds-on favourite is expected to win and win pulling up.
We know Tories are more likely to bet that Labourites, but do we know if Brexiteers are more like to bet than Remainers?
> @Dura_Ace said: > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1128619859829346304 > > > > > > May has said this will be her last try at the WA and if it fails she will almost certainly resign and let her successor deal with the consequences of Revoke or No Deal in October given Macron is likely to veto further extension. As the Brexit Party surges further or the economy tanks and the Union starts to fracture based on the Commons and new PM's decision I expect May will be enjoying a well deserved cruise with Philip and plenty of glasses of schaudenfraude > > Why is Bercow allowing it? What has changed?
I believe she is including a few amendments on workers' rights etc to win over Labour MPs from Leave seats
> If the experience of the Canadian Tories in 1993 is anything to go by the bulk of the Tories and the carcass will end up in the Brexit Party with the remainder forming a rump Tory Party for a decade or so until the Brexit Party take it over. At that point a new Conservative Party will be formed more right-wing and populist than the old one but with a few wet Tories defecting to the Liberal Democrats >
I can't read this at all. However ...
If they split in two then your scenario may be right
But might they not fragment? Will the ERG hard Brexiteers ever accept people like Fox, Boris, Gove? I can't see it myself at the moment.
I'm always a little wary when people start writing off either the Conservatives or Labour. Much as I would love the LibDems to come steaming through the middle and take the mantle, what usually happens is that the Big Two see sense and remember, almost too late, that you don't win power in this country out on the margins. You win it by capturing the middle. This isn't America. We're not actually a hard right (or hard left) country by inclination or belief.
What I 'do' think will happen is that the Conservatives have consigned themselves to be out of power for a generation.
So whoever is the next leader will be the William Hague of the 2020's. A thoroughly poisoned chalice with a lot of blood-letting.
May has said this will be her last try at the WA and if it fails she will almost certainly resign and let her successor deal with the consequences of Revoke or No Deal in October given Macron is likely to veto further extension. As the Brexit Party surges further or the economy tanks and the Union starts to fracture based on the Commons and new PM's decision I expect May will be enjoying a well deserved cruise with Philip and plenty of glasses of schaudenfraude
Why is Bercow allowing it? What has changed?
I doubt we will find out. May will think of a new excuse not to put it to the vote after the EU elections.
> @viewcode said: > > Ah, happy days. Up there with "the German car manufacturers will save us", "only the British can make Airbus wings", "the Irish border isn't important" and "The EU will suffer more than us". Currently sharing chart space with "the EU will throw us out because of all the Eurosceptics in the new EP". Where did all those happy songs go, long ago?
You've missed out the one that was always my favourite - especially when delivered in TV interviews very smoothly and suavely and knowingly by David Davis.
"You think the French won't want to keep selling us their cheese?"
Nobody ever had a convincing answer to that. Not that I can recall anyway. It was devastating.
Peter Bone - were MPs around him saying his question was disgraceful or was it the fact his activists letter calling to TMay to go had felt the need to write it?
> @kinabalu said: > I have put up my model for interpretation - England only. > > LEAVE = BP + UKIP + 0.5xCON + 0.25xLAB > > Apply Contingency uplift of 5%. > > Then compare to Ref1 and see if there appears to be a material move either way.
If it were a simple matter of Leave vs Remain then we would not be stuck in this stasis. A more accurate representation would probably be something like.
No Deal Brexit = Brexit + UKIP + sundry far-right groupuscles Brexit with a Deal = Conservative + Labour (if Corbyn insists) Remain = Lib Dem + Green + sundry pro-EU groupuscles
The polls would suggest that this will come out in the region of one-third each. That's why we're stuck.
> May has said this will be her last try at the WA and if it fails she will almost certainly resign and let her successor deal with the consequences of Revoke or No Deal in October given Macron is likely to veto further extension. As the Brexit Party surges further or the economy tanks and the Union starts to fracture based on the Commons and new PM's decision I expect May will be enjoying a well deserved cruise with Philip and plenty of glasses of schaudenfraude
>
> Why is Bercow allowing it? What has changed?
I believe she is including a few amendments on workers' rights etc to win over Labour MPs from Leave seats
Isn’t it because this is the bill, not a ‘meaningful vote’ and therefore it is something different?
> @Charles said: > If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ... > > > > If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort > > I know you’re trolling, but a better comparable would be petition signatories in any 12 hour period of your choice
Voting counts for more than clicking on a website.
> > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
> >
> > I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge.
> >
> > One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult.
>
> I don't think the distinction between Reason and Belief is at all clearcut.
>
> Humans are very good at rationalising beliefs.
Laws based on credal beliefs are incompatible with democracy.
If a law is based on what a God wants how can voting possibly be allowed to change it?
That is why any attempt to include a religiously based belief into our laws should be resisted at all costs. (If you want to see an example of what I am talking about there is an egregious example on the front page of today's Times. Look past the headlines and it would in effect impose a Muslim blasphemy law on us all. No. Just no.)
No-one should be forced to have an abortion; no doctor or nurse should be forced to give an abortion if they feel, in all conscience, unable to do so. But no woman should be denied an abortion on the basis of someone else's religious belief.
The problem is there is a rational basis for tougher abortion laws (essentially balancing between the rights of the child and the rights of the parents). Viability is a logical line to draw.
However on both sides it is treated as an article of faith meaning it is very difficult to have a sensible debate
> > Voting counts for more than clicking on a website.
In an EU election most of the parties don't want and for which the Conservatives are hardly participating? Not really.
I don't know why on earth the Tories are contesting it tbh. Why didn't they just announce that they're not fielding any candidates because they're preparing for Brexit?
> @rottenborough said: > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1128619859829346304 > > > > > > May has said this will be her last try at the WA and if it fails she will almost certainly resign and let her successor deal with the consequences of Revoke or No Deal in October given Macron is likely to veto further extension. As the Brexit Party surges further or the economy tanks and the Union starts to fracture based on the Commons and new PM's decision I expect May will be enjoying a well deserved cruise with Philip and plenty of glasses of schaudenfraude > > Why is Bercow allowing it? What has changed? > > I doubt we will find out. May will think of a new excuse not to put it to the vote after the EU elections.
She's not doing another Meaningful Vote. She's putting forward the legislation to enact the WA forward. So, technically, it is different.
It's all rubbish anyway. If anyone in the Tory party had any balls they would say that No Deal was never the basis on which either the referendum was won or the election.
If that is the way some voters want to go then this will need to be put to a vote, either at a GE or in a referendum. But it will not be the policy of the Tory party.
If individual tories want to turn themselves into a single issue Brexit party, let them leave and join it. Or if they allow themselves to break taken over by Farage and co, let old-style liberal Tories join the Lib Dems (Change UK having proved to be an utter waste of space).
The rest of us will have to enjoy the delights of a Corbyn government unchecked by pesky EU rules. I will have to dig out my old passport with its stamps at the back graciously allowing me to take £50 out of the country to go on holiday.
> @isam said: > We know Tories are more likely to bet that Labourites, but do we know if Brexiteers are more like to bet than Remainers? > > Wonder if he has traded out?
> @Charles said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > > > > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones. > > > > > > > > I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge. > > > > > > > > One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult. > > > > > > I don't think the distinction between Reason and Belief is at all clearcut. > > > > > > Humans are very good at rationalising beliefs. > > > > Laws based on credal beliefs are incompatible with democracy. > > > > If a law is based on what a God wants how can voting possibly be allowed to change it? > > > > That is why any attempt to include a religiously based belief into our laws should be resisted at all costs. (If you want to see an example of what I am talking about there is an egregious example on the front page of today's Times. Look past the headlines and it would in effect impose a Muslim blasphemy law on us all. No. Just no.) > > > > No-one should be forced to have an abortion; no doctor or nurse should be forced to give an abortion if they feel, in all conscience, unable to do so. But no woman should be denied an abortion on the basis of someone else's religious belief. > > The problem is there is a rational basis for tougher abortion laws (essentially balancing between the rights of the child and the rights of the parents). Viability is a logical line to draw. > > However on both sides it is treated as an article of faith meaning it is very difficult to have a sensible debate
That is why I said it shouldn't be denied on the basis of religious belief. There may be other reasons for limiting it e.g. I would be against late term abortions when the child is clearly viable.
It is curious that when extreme conservatives come to power often their very first act is to limit women's freedoms. See Iran, for instance. Why are conservative men so afraid of women being free?
> If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ...
>
>
>
> If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
>
> I know you’re trolling, but a better comparable would be petition signatories in any 12 hour period of your choice
Voting counts for more than clicking on a website.
> @Mysticrose said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > Voting counts for more than clicking on a website. > > In an EU election most of the parties don't want and for which the Conservatives are hardly participating? Not really. > > I don't know why on earth the Tories are contesting it tbh. Why didn't they just announce that they're not fielding any candidates because they're preparing for Brexit?
A party of government which says that it doesn't contest elections is signalling that it no longer a serious party.
> @Charles said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > > > > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones. > > > > > > > > I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge. > > > > > > > > One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult. > > > > > > I don't think the distinction between Reason and Belief is at all clearcut. > > > > > > Humans are very good at rationalising beliefs. > > > > Laws based on credal beliefs are incompatible with democracy. > > > > If a law is based on what a God wants how can voting possibly be allowed to change it? > > > > That is why any attempt to include a religiously based belief into our laws should be resisted at all costs. (If you want to see an example of what I am talking about there is an egregious example on the front page of today's Times. Look past the headlines and it would in effect impose a Muslim blasphemy law on us all. No. Just no.) > > > > No-one should be forced to have an abortion; no doctor or nurse should be forced to give an abortion if they feel, in all conscience, unable to do so. But no woman should be denied an abortion on the basis of someone else's religious belief. > > The problem is there is a rational basis for tougher abortion laws (essentially balancing between the rights of the child and the rights of the parents). Viability is a logical line to draw. > > However on both sides it is treated as an article of faith meaning it is very difficult to have a sensible debate
The problem with that (a position I struggle to improve on, I must admit), is that medical science keeps pushing back the point at which a pregnancy can be 'viable'. When we finally invent artificial wombs, it could be very early indeed.
> @Pulpstar said: > Biden 33, Sanders 25, Harris, Warren 10, Buttigieg 8 the rest 3 or less in latest Emerson poll. > No Lake or Palmer polls I'm afraid.
It is curious that when extreme conservatives come to power often their very first act is to limit women's freedoms. See Iran, for instance. Why are conservative men so afraid of women being free?
I think that’s an unfair use of the term “conservative” in the second sentence Fundamentalist would be better
The answer is that their religious texts reflect the social landscape of when they were written (you only have to compare Romans to the Pentateuch to see the impact of time)
Fundamentalists build their appeal on simplistic calls to go back to a past when everything was peachy. Subjugating women - based on 4,000 year old texts - is a highly visible demonstration of compliance.
It also wins them credit from the many social and intellectual inadequates in their ranks
(You could have summarised the above as “playing to their base”)
> @Mysticrose said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > If the experience of the Canadian Tories in 1993 is anything to go by the bulk of the Tories and the carcass will end up in the Brexit Party with the remainder forming a rump Tory Party for a decade or so until the Brexit Party take it over. At that point a new Conservative Party will be formed more right-wing and populist than the old one but with a few wet Tories defecting to the Liberal Democrats > > > > I can't read this at all. However ... > > If they split in two then your scenario may be right > > But might they not fragment? Will the ERG hard Brexiteers ever accept people like Fox, Boris, Gove? I can't see it myself at the moment. > > I'm always a little wary when people start writing off either the Conservatives or Labour. Much as I would love the LibDems to come steaming through the middle and take the mantle, what usually happens is that the Big Two see sense and remember, almost too late, that you don't win power in this country out on the margins. You win it by capturing the middle. This isn't America. We're not actually a hard right (or hard left) country by inclination or belief. > > What I 'do' think will happen is that the Conservatives have consigned themselves to be out of power for a generation. > > So whoever is the next leader will be the William Hague of the 2020's. A thoroughly poisoned chalice with a lot of blood-letting.
Canada is not America either but it saw the main centre right party overtaken by a populist right party. The same has happened in France and Italy.
Plus with Corbyn rather than Blair leading Labour Labour will hardly get much of a mandate either if Corbyn wins
> It beat others by over 10 points . Remainers really need to get out and vote .
The LibDem machine is very efficient ...
Too right. Over the last two years they have build up a significant data base of not only members and supporters but also information on remainers. They can then target material to high probability voters.
If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ...
If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
I know you’re trolling, but a better comparable would be petition signatories in any 12 hour period of your choice
Comments
> It happens every time Farage is doing well, logic and proportion go out of the window. He is Emanuel Goldstein and this is their two minutes hate.
>
> I will not be voting for them, as I do not support the Brexit Party. But it is laughable the way Remainers try to down play the Brexit Party's apparent popularity. By any normal definition the Brexit Party looks like it will be the winner of the election if the polls are right.
>
>
> It's more pitiful than laughable, its bordering on the unhinged.
>
> I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds?
Given that Farage's entire shtick has been based on hate of the EU and immigrants, with logic and proportion going out of the window, it's a bit rich of his supporters to complain when it is done to him.
If the Brexit Party does not do as well as they themselves are expecting then it will be seen as a relative failure.
https://twitter.com/PromisesRust/status/1128609929986748416
Or the ERG as they are otherwise known...
As for your second point, what is the target The Brexit Party have set themselves? It would be nice to know before the result rather than afterwards.
> If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
>
> In 2016 everyone on here was saying Farage was nothing to do with Leaves victory, in fact they said he was a hindrance
Well what can I say, they were wrong. No Nigel, No Brexit.
And as we can also see now - No Brexit, LOADS of Nigel.
> It happens every time Farage is doing well, logic and proportion go out of the window. He is Emanuel Goldstein and this is their two minutes hate.
>
> I will not be voting for them, as I do not support the Brexit Party. But it is laughable the way Remainers try to down play the Brexit Party's apparent popularity. By any normal definition the Brexit Party looks like it will be the winner of the election if the polls are right.
>
>
> It's more pitiful than laughable, its bordering on the unhinged.
>
> I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say to yourself "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds?
Every society has folk devils and demon kings.
Farage fulfils that role for the pro-EU left.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
>
> Yes I'm sure everyone will put the issue to bed, get over the idea and nobody will mention the £12Bn and rising pa ever again.
>
> Remain in practice is an idea that has yet to be contemplated in public - it will not be a pleasant experience for the nation.
Turbulent times ahead however this plays out IMO.
An advance, or at the very least interest free loan till it is sorted would be. Not like the government can't find money when it needs to.
> > @isam said:
>
> > It happens every time Farage is doing well, logic and proportion go out of the window. He is Emanuel Goldstein and this is their two minutes hate.
>
> >
>
> > I will not be voting for them, as I do not support the Brexit Party. But it is laughable the way Remainers try to down play the Brexit Party's apparent popularity. By any normal definition the Brexit Party looks like it will be the winner of the election if the polls are right.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It's more pitiful than laughable, its bordering on the unhinged.
>
> >
>
> > I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds?
>
>
>
> Given that Farage's entire shtick has been based on hate of the EU and immigrants, with logic and proportion going out of the window, it's a bit rich of his supporters to complain when it is done to him.
>
>
>
> If the Brexit Party does not do as well as they themselves are expecting then it will be seen as a relative failure.
>
> I doubt he has ever said that he hates immigrants, and I am pretty sure he doesn't. Confusing concerns over immigration control with malice towards individuals is one of the biggest mistakes people make, deliberately or out of ignorance.
>
> As for your second point, what is the target The Brexit Party have set themselves? It would be nice to know before the result rather than afterwards.
On your second point, I don't know. Given the poll figures, any figure below that could look disappointing.
On the first, Farage has over the years said things about immigrants which indicate a dislike of them as a class rather than a concern about how best to control immigration. I find it hard to consider him sincere about his concerns over FoM when his main poster during the referendum was about migrants/asylum seekers fleeing from wars outside the EU rather than about the consequences of FoM. If he were really interested in control, he would have been pushing for the government to use the controls it currently has, even under FoM, rather than making generalised untrue statements.
> This food bank at Dept of Business really isn't good enough. "Payroll blunder by outsourced company" does not cut it as an excuse for workers not being paid. And a food bank is not a sufficient solution.
> An advance, or at the very least interest free loan till it is sorted would be. Not like the government can't find money when it needs to.
Not to mention that it is illegal.
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1128609293752766464
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/PromisesRust/status/1128609929986748416
>
>
>
> Or the ERG as they are otherwise known...
If the experience of the Canadian Tories in 1993 is anything to go by the bulk of the Tories and the carcass will end up in the Brexit Party with the remainder forming a rump Tory Party for a decade or so until the Brexit Party take it over. At that point a new Conservative Party will be formed more right-wing and populist than the old one but with a few wet Tories defecting to the Liberals
If they smash it it will show that the core of Brexiters really, really cares. But that is beside the point at the moment. We know the core of Brexiters really really cares. The challenge is to determine what flavour of Brexit, if any, we get.
As for betting, well imo lay the favourite (especially in Peterborough) was invented for these types of events.
>
> It's been coming for awhile. The square cannot be circled and they need to accept that
If the metaphor of the main parties as two corpses propping each other up is accurate, they could bring down Labour with them.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
>
> And if TBP come first?
Which surely they will. Regardless, I have put up my model for interpretation - England only.
LEAVE = BP + UKIP + 0.5xCON + 0.25xLAB
Apply Contingency uplift of 5%.
Then compare to Ref1 and see if there appears to be a material move either way.
> This food bank at Dept of Business really isn't good enough. "Payroll blunder by outsourced company" does not cut it as an excuse for workers not being paid. And a food bank is not a sufficient solution.
> An advance, or at the very least interest free loan till it is sorted would be. Not like the government can't find money when it needs to.
Shameful by the company. I hope they get heavily fined and the money compensates the workers.
> https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1128619859829346304
May has said this will be her last try at the WA and if it fails she will almost certainly resign and let her successor deal with the consequences of Revoke or No Deal in October given Macron is likely to veto further extension. As the Brexit Party surges further or the economy tanks and the Union starts to fracture based on the Commons and new PM's decision I expect May will be enjoying a well deserved cruise with Philip and plenty of glasses of schaudenfraude
Done my brains backing UKIP in constituency bets instead!
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
> >
> > And if TBP come first?
>
> Which surely they will. Regardless, I have put up my model for interpretation - England only.
>
> LEAVE = BP + UKIP + 0.5xCON + 0.25xLAB
>
> Apply Contingency uplift of 5%.
>
> Then compare to Ref1 and see if there appears to be a material move either way.
If Vince beats Nigel I'll eat my hat/kilt/pantaloons.
Personally I think it's an interesting enough event to watch without feeling the need to indulge in expectation management on others behalf.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/highworth-council-election-count-petition-high-court-local-elections/
> It's more pitiful than laughable, its bordering on the unhinged.
>
> I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say to yourself "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds?
>
> I haven't noticed anything on here; I think we are all intrigued about how TBP does. As I said in a previous post I have backed everyone apart from Change UK and TBP for the euros, the former because they are hopeless, the latter because I just don't think a brand new party should be at five to one on for their first ever election. But we shall see in a week's time.
>
> If they smash it it will show that the core of Brexiters really, really cares. But that is beside the point at the moment. We know the core of Brexiters really really cares. The challenge is to determine what flavour of Brexit, if any, we get.
>
> As for betting, well imo lay the favourite (especially in Peterborough) was invented for these types of events.
>
> If TBP don't exceed their best poll showing, it will be described on here as a failure. Absolute madness, but there you go.
>
> Personally I think it's an interesting enough event to watch without feeling the need to indulge in expectation management on others behalf.
>
> I think you're right that it would be described as a failure but a heavily odds-on favourite is expected to win and win pulling up.
We know Tories are more likely to bet that Labourites, but do we know if Brexiteers are more like to bet than Remainers?
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1128619859829346304
>
>
>
>
>
> May has said this will be her last try at the WA and if it fails she will almost certainly resign and let her successor deal with the consequences of Revoke or No Deal in October given Macron is likely to veto further extension. As the Brexit Party surges further or the economy tanks and the Union starts to fracture based on the Commons and new PM's decision I expect May will be enjoying a well deserved cruise with Philip and plenty of glasses of schaudenfraude
>
> Why is Bercow allowing it? What has changed?
I believe she is including a few amendments on workers' rights etc to win over Labour MPs from Leave seats
> If the experience of the Canadian Tories in 1993 is anything to go by the bulk of the Tories and the carcass will end up in the Brexit Party with the remainder forming a rump Tory Party for a decade or so until the Brexit Party take it over. At that point a new Conservative Party will be formed more right-wing and populist than the old one but with a few wet Tories defecting to the Liberal Democrats
>
I can't read this at all. However ...
If they split in two then your scenario may be right
But might they not fragment? Will the ERG hard Brexiteers ever accept people like Fox, Boris, Gove? I can't see it myself at the moment.
I'm always a little wary when people start writing off either the Conservatives or Labour. Much as I would love the LibDems to come steaming through the middle and take the mantle, what usually happens is that the Big Two see sense and remember, almost too late, that you don't win power in this country out on the margins. You win it by capturing the middle. This isn't America. We're not actually a hard right (or hard left) country by inclination or belief.
What I 'do' think will happen is that the Conservatives have consigned themselves to be out of power for a generation.
So whoever is the next leader will be the William Hague of the 2020's. A thoroughly poisoned chalice with a lot of blood-letting.
>
> Ah, happy days. Up there with "the German car manufacturers will save us", "only the British can make Airbus wings", "the Irish border isn't important" and "The EU will suffer more than us". Currently sharing chart space with "the EU will throw us out because of all the Eurosceptics in the new EP". Where did all those happy songs go, long ago?
You've missed out the one that was always my favourite - especially when delivered in TV interviews very smoothly and suavely and knowingly by David Davis.
"You think the French won't want to keep selling us their cheese?"
Nobody ever had a convincing answer to that. Not that I can recall anyway. It was devastating.
> I have put up my model for interpretation - England only.
>
> LEAVE = BP + UKIP + 0.5xCON + 0.25xLAB
>
> Apply Contingency uplift of 5%.
>
> Then compare to Ref1 and see if there appears to be a material move either way.
If it were a simple matter of Leave vs Remain then we would not be stuck in this stasis. A more accurate representation would probably be something like.
No Deal Brexit = Brexit + UKIP + sundry far-right groupuscles
Brexit with a Deal = Conservative + Labour (if Corbyn insists)
Remain = Lib Dem + Green + sundry pro-EU groupuscles
The polls would suggest that this will come out in the region of one-third each. That's why we're stuck.
> If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ...
>
>
>
> If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
>
> I know you’re trolling, but a better comparable would be petition signatories in any 12 hour period of your choice
Voting counts for more than clicking on a website.
However on both sides it is treated as an article of faith meaning it is very difficult to have a sensible debate
No Lake or Palmer polls I'm afraid.
It won't end of thread!!!
>
> Voting counts for more than clicking on a website.
In an EU election most of the parties don't want and for which the Conservatives are hardly participating? Not really.
I don't know why on earth the Tories are contesting it tbh. Why didn't they just announce that they're not fielding any candidates because they're preparing for Brexit?
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1128619859829346304
>
>
>
>
>
> May has said this will be her last try at the WA and if it fails she will almost certainly resign and let her successor deal with the consequences of Revoke or No Deal in October given Macron is likely to veto further extension. As the Brexit Party surges further or the economy tanks and the Union starts to fracture based on the Commons and new PM's decision I expect May will be enjoying a well deserved cruise with Philip and plenty of glasses of schaudenfraude
>
> Why is Bercow allowing it? What has changed?
>
> I doubt we will find out. May will think of a new excuse not to put it to the vote after the EU elections.
She's not doing another Meaningful Vote. She's putting forward the legislation to enact the WA forward. So, technically, it is different.
It's all rubbish anyway. If anyone in the Tory party had any balls they would say that No Deal was never the basis on which either the referendum was won or the election.
If that is the way some voters want to go then this will need to be put to a vote, either at a GE or in a referendum. But it will not be the policy of the Tory party.
If individual tories want to turn themselves into a single issue Brexit party, let them leave and join it. Or if they allow themselves to break taken over by Farage and co, let old-style liberal Tories join the Lib Dems (Change UK having proved to be an utter waste of space).
The rest of us will have to enjoy the delights of a Corbyn government unchecked by pesky EU rules. I will have to dig out my old passport with its stamps at the back graciously allowing me to take £50 out of the country to go on holiday.
> We know Tories are more likely to bet that Labourites, but do we know if Brexiteers are more like to bet than Remainers?
>
> Wonder if he has traded out?
They let him have a grand which is nice.
> > @Sean_F said:
>
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
>
> > > > @Sean_F said:
>
> > >
>
> > > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
>
> > >
>
> > > I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge.
>
> > >
>
> > > One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult.
>
> >
>
> > I don't think the distinction between Reason and Belief is at all clearcut.
>
> >
>
> > Humans are very good at rationalising beliefs.
>
>
>
> Laws based on credal beliefs are incompatible with democracy.
>
>
>
> If a law is based on what a God wants how can voting possibly be allowed to change it?
>
>
>
> That is why any attempt to include a religiously based belief into our laws should be resisted at all costs. (If you want to see an example of what I am talking about there is an egregious example on the front page of today's Times. Look past the headlines and it would in effect impose a Muslim blasphemy law on us all. No. Just no.)
>
>
>
> No-one should be forced to have an abortion; no doctor or nurse should be forced to give an abortion if they feel, in all conscience, unable to do so. But no woman should be denied an abortion on the basis of someone else's religious belief.
>
> The problem is there is a rational basis for tougher abortion laws (essentially balancing between the rights of the child and the rights of the parents). Viability is a logical line to draw.
>
> However on both sides it is treated as an article of faith meaning it is very difficult to have a sensible debate
That is why I said it shouldn't be denied on the basis of religious belief. There may be other reasons for limiting it e.g. I would be against late term abortions when the child is clearly viable.
It is curious that when extreme conservatives come to power often their very first act is to limit women's freedoms. See Iran, for instance. Why are conservative men so afraid of women being free?
> > @Sean_F said:
>
> >
> > Voting counts for more than clicking on a website.
>
> In an EU election most of the parties don't want and for which the Conservatives are hardly participating? Not really.
>
> I don't know why on earth the Tories are contesting it tbh. Why didn't they just announce that they're not fielding any candidates because they're preparing for Brexit?
A party of government which says that it doesn't contest elections is signalling that it no longer a serious party.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6mJw50OdZ4
> > @Sean_F said:
>
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
>
> > > > @Sean_F said:
>
> > >
>
> > > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
>
> > >
>
> > > I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge.
>
> > >
>
> > > One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult.
>
> >
>
> > I don't think the distinction between Reason and Belief is at all clearcut.
>
> >
>
> > Humans are very good at rationalising beliefs.
>
>
>
> Laws based on credal beliefs are incompatible with democracy.
>
>
>
> If a law is based on what a God wants how can voting possibly be allowed to change it?
>
>
>
> That is why any attempt to include a religiously based belief into our laws should be resisted at all costs. (If you want to see an example of what I am talking about there is an egregious example on the front page of today's Times. Look past the headlines and it would in effect impose a Muslim blasphemy law on us all. No. Just no.)
>
>
>
> No-one should be forced to have an abortion; no doctor or nurse should be forced to give an abortion if they feel, in all conscience, unable to do so. But no woman should be denied an abortion on the basis of someone else's religious belief.
>
> The problem is there is a rational basis for tougher abortion laws (essentially balancing between the rights of the child and the rights of the parents). Viability is a logical line to draw.
>
> However on both sides it is treated as an article of faith meaning it is very difficult to have a sensible debate
The problem with that (a position I struggle to improve on, I must admit), is that medical science keeps pushing back the point at which a pregnancy can be 'viable'. When we finally invent artificial wombs, it could be very early indeed.
> Biden 33, Sanders 25, Harris, Warren 10, Buttigieg 8 the rest 3 or less in latest Emerson poll.
> No Lake or Palmer polls I'm afraid.
Sanders closes the gap with Biden
The answer is that their religious texts reflect the social landscape of when they were written (you only have to compare Romans to the Pentateuch to see the impact of time)
Fundamentalists build their appeal on simplistic calls to go back to a past when everything was peachy. Subjugating women - based on 4,000 year old texts - is a highly visible demonstration of compliance.
It also wins them credit from the many social and intellectual inadequates in their ranks
(You could have summarised the above as “playing to their base”)
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > If the experience of the Canadian Tories in 1993 is anything to go by the bulk of the Tories and the carcass will end up in the Brexit Party with the remainder forming a rump Tory Party for a decade or so until the Brexit Party take it over. At that point a new Conservative Party will be formed more right-wing and populist than the old one but with a few wet Tories defecting to the Liberal Democrats
> >
>
> I can't read this at all. However ...
>
> If they split in two then your scenario may be right
>
> But might they not fragment? Will the ERG hard Brexiteers ever accept people like Fox, Boris, Gove? I can't see it myself at the moment.
>
> I'm always a little wary when people start writing off either the Conservatives or Labour. Much as I would love the LibDems to come steaming through the middle and take the mantle, what usually happens is that the Big Two see sense and remember, almost too late, that you don't win power in this country out on the margins. You win it by capturing the middle. This isn't America. We're not actually a hard right (or hard left) country by inclination or belief.
>
> What I 'do' think will happen is that the Conservatives have consigned themselves to be out of power for a generation.
>
> So whoever is the next leader will be the William Hague of the 2020's. A thoroughly poisoned chalice with a lot of blood-letting.
Canada is not America either but it saw the main centre right party overtaken by a populist right party. The same has happened in France and Italy.
Plus with Corbyn rather than Blair leading Labour Labour will hardly get much of a mandate either if Corbyn wins
European Parliament voting intention:
BREX: 30% (+3)
LAB: 24% (-3)
CON: 12% (-4)
LDEM: 11% (+3)
GRN: 6% (+2)
CHUK: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-3)