If the Tories are going to go for a hardcore Brexiteer then it ought to be Baker. He actually believes in a hard brexit unlike Boris who is simply using it for career advancement.
The dispute between People's Vote/Labour and the Lib Dems, Change UK and the Greens over a single Remain candidate for Peterborough seems to have had the effect of passing the mantle from the People's Vote organisation, which is now seen as acting in Labour's interests rather than Remain's, to the Lib Dems.
> @Pulpstar said: > If the Tories are going to go for a hardcore Brexiteer then it ought to be Baker. He actually believes in a hard brexit unlike Boris who is simply using it for career advancement.
> @tlg86 said: > > @Nigelb said: > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd > > > > > > > > > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama > > > > > > > > > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white? > > > > > > > > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ? > > > > > > But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion? > > > > I can't find the polling for Alabama, but it also appears to reflect opinion on the specific issue from the evidence of Georgia: > > https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/interactive-poll-georgia-voters-april-2019/UNhiJklHIc4Uf84ZKjJtML/ > > The interesting thing there is that there is a bigger difference between white/black than male/female. > > I suppose one could argue that the (democratically?) elected white politicians are in tune with the white voters, but I guess that's not the point the Guarian want to make!
Either the law is good or bad. The identity of the people passing it is irrelevant to the argument.
The dispute between People's Vote/Labour and the Lib Dems, Change UK and the Greens over a single Remain candidate for Peterborough seems to have had the effect of passing the mantle from the People's Vote organisation, which is now seen as acting in Labour's interests rather than Remain's, to the Lib Dems.
> @Pulpstar said: > If the Tories are going to go for a hardcore Brexiteer then it ought to be Baker. He actually believes in a hard brexit unlike Boris who is simply using it for career advancement.
The problem is competence not levels of Brexiteeryness.
> @isam said: > After the polling disasters of 2015, 2016, & 2017, will the Brexit Party be the latest 1/10 shot chinned?
Trying to be as objective as I can given I have strong views on Brexit, I do think the answer must be 'Probably not, but there's a more than 10% chance'. The odds are too tight. Too many polls have it fairly close, and the new party/big swings/etc added factors make it fairly unpredictable.
Brexit Party are clearly strong favourites, but 1/10 is more than just strong favourites. It's 'Barely possible to imagine them losing' territory, and the polls aren't in that area.
> @SandyRentool said: > We have received no Euro election literature yet. > > Looking forward to reading what the Yorkshire Party have to say. I shall be searching nervously for the word 'deportation' in their list of policies.
Surely an independent trade policy would be top of the list. Britain needs Yorkshire more than Yorkshire needs Britain.
If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
> The interesting thing there is that there is a bigger difference between white/black than male/female.
>
> I suppose one could argue that the (democratically?) elected white politicians are in tune with the white voters, but I guess that's not the point the Guarian want to make!
Either the law is good or bad. The identity of the people passing it is irrelevant to the argument.
It's a bad law. If the identity of those voting for it is irrelevant, then why your objections to EU legislation ?
> @Sean_F said: > > @nico67 said: > > Comres v YouGov. > > > > We can start seeing why there are such big differences. > > > > The turnout is key . > > > > It’s the bigger difference between over 65s voting versus the rest. > > > > Comres has all voting groups between a much narrower range . YouGov has a much bigger lead for over 65s . > > > > That age range is the biggest supporter of the BP. > > > > There's nothing strange about polling companies showing divergent results. They ought to, if they're doing their jobs properly. > >
I’m well aware of that . But a 16 point difference between two polls over a short period of time should raise alarm bells .
Both done online so lack of the shy voter effect . One expects to see differences of course because of sampling but clearly there are issues with the current polling.
> > > People who support Brexit obviously don't understand Economics. What makes you think they understand Politics. Secondly, you need to assess differential turnout.
> >
> > There are economists on this site who I would argue with regarding their understanding of economics (for instance one believes that high house prices are good for the economy, I'm not so sure that's true).
>
> It's hard to see how high house prices are good for the economy. It reduces labour mobility etc. I think rising house prices has been an illicit drug for the UK economy on which we have had several highs as well as some lows over the post war years. The notional wealth encourages spending, borrowing and leaks into overall consumption allowing us to buy more expensive cars more often than we need and other things.
As an OAP I am bombarded with 'offers' for equity release. Our IFA considers that they are the very last thing we should consider for cash-raising, if that becomes necessary, but it all looks too easy!
An accountant acquaintance reckons that they are the next PPI scandal.
Equity release has its place for some people, but the ads for it are a disgrace because the people for whom it has its place look nothing like the people used in the adverts as possible customers. The chances of the wrong people using equity release are immeasurably higher as a result.
We pioneered reversionary property deals in the 80s but they were done with specific reasons and usually where they didn’t want to admit to selling during their lifetime.
It worked very well - but should be a very niche market. Equity release is massively oversold.
Banking should be a utility - financial service professionals are overpaid and self important gamblers
> @williamglenn said: > > @SandyRentool said: > > We have received no Euro election literature yet. > > > > Looking forward to reading what the Yorkshire Party have to say. I shall be searching nervously for the word 'deportation' in their list of policies. > > Surely an independent trade policy would be top of the list. Britain needs Yorkshire more than Yorkshire needs Britain.
Britain's southern softies will be desperate to do a deal, Yorkshire holds most of the cards in any negotiation.
> @kinabalu said: > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
Yes I'm sure everyone will put the issue to bed, get over the idea and nobody will mention the £12Bn and rising pa ever again.
Remain in practice is an idea that has yet to be contemplated in public - it will not be a pleasant experience for the nation.
If the Tories are going to go for a hardcore Brexiteer then it ought to be Baker. He actually believes in a hard brexit unlike Boris who is simply using it for career advancement.
Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker was an RAF Eng Off for most of the 90s and had a pretty impressive reputation as "Mr. Adour" (expert on Jaguar engines). The tories could and probably will do a lot worse.
Still high for CUK. Apocalyptic for the Tories so the cowards who were previously UKIP wannabes will already be working towards an alliance with BP. Finally the LDs get a reward for their stance, be interesting to see if it lasts post euros.
If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
In 2016 everyone on here was saying Farage was nothing to do with Leaves victory, in fact they said he was a hindrance
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > If the government really thinks that the only options, if the WA is not passed, are No Deal or Revoke, why aren’t No Deal preparations being stepped up? Or maybe they are and we’re not noticing? > > > > Imagine going into a No Deal exit in the winter months with no effective preparation..... > > All the No Deal preparations have been cancelled, or perhaps mothballed. You would expect it would be one of the first things a new Leaver PM would do, to restart them at great expense.
They only stopped Operation Yellowhammer, which was the no deal planning that had to be in place days before a no deal. i.e staff at ports to wave through medicines, extra capacity dedicated to medicines. They have not stopped general no deal planning.
> @Nigelb said: > > @tlg86 said: > > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > > > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd > > > > > > > > > > > > > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white? > > > > > > > > > > > > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ? > > > > > > > > > > But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion? > > > > > > > > I can't find the polling for Alabama, but it also appears to reflect opinion on the specific issue from the evidence of Georgia: > > > > https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/interactive-poll-georgia-voters-april-2019/UNhiJklHIc4Uf84ZKjJtML/ > > > > > > The interesting thing there is that there is a bigger difference between white/black than male/female. > > > > > > I suppose one could argue that the (democratically?) elected white politicians are in tune with the white voters, but I guess that's not the point the Guarian want to make! > > > > Either the law is good or bad. The identity of the people passing it is irrelevant to the argument. > > It's a bad law. > If the identity of those voting for it is irrelevant, then why your objections to EU legislation ?
The race and sex of EU officials has no bearing on my views about the organisation.
> @kinabalu said: > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
This was a clever bet, Mike. Rightly or wrongly, there's a very strong narrative building that Remainers should vote tactically for the Lib Dems. Despite being a Lib Dem voter myself I don't approve of this behaviour, but it will significantly benefit the party.
> @kinabalu said: > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
This is a good example of the narrative I mentioned in my previous post. It's nonsense of course, but people love to engage in wishful thinking.
We can hope but if you look at the polling the BP is likely to win . They have a motivated group of voters and a clear message .
I think the main other interest is what happens with the Lib Dems . I do feel rather bad for Change UK who have really not got going . I really like many of their MPs but I think they got a bit over confident at the start and have made quite a lot of mistakes .
In hindsight they really should have joined the Lib Dems .
> @Charles said: > > @kle4 said: > > > I see Alabama gets the 'bragging rights' of harshest abortion law in the US so they can get a challenge to the Supreme Court. > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48275795 > > > > The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child . > > At what point does the child acquire rights?
When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe.
The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA.
> @nico67 said: > Remainers need to be realistic . > > We can hope but if you look at the polling the BP is likely to win . They have a motivated group of voters and a clear message . > > I think the main other interest is what happens with the Lib Dems . I do feel rather bad for Change UK who have really not got going . I really like many of their MPs but I think they got a bit over confident at the start and have made quite a lot of mistakes . > > In hindsight they really should have joined the Lib Dems .
Given they contain probably the biggest liar in parliament (Wollaston) I think sympathy will be in short supply. There was an arrogance to Change UK from the beginning - just expecting to grab all the Tory and Labour remainers without doing anything. Compared to the hard work, planning and organisation of The Brexit Party and you can see why one is succeeding and one is failing.
> @kinabalu said: > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
I think this is broadly true, it will be a massive boost for remain. Similarly if The Brexit Party win the elections then the remain campaign may be fatally dented. All to play for with a week to go.
> @Barnesian said: > > @Charles said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > I see Alabama gets the 'bragging rights' of harshest abortion law in the US so they can get a challenge to the Supreme Court. > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48275795 > > > > > > > > The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child . > > > > At what point does the child acquire rights? > > When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe. > > The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA.
I think that this law is far too harsh.
But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
Yes I'm sure everyone will put the issue to bed, get over the idea and nobody will mention the £12Bn and rising pa ever again.
Remain in practice is an idea that has yet to be contemplated in public - it will not be a pleasant experience for the nation.
Well, Remain in practice will consist of a fruitful trading relationship with the EU, exactly as we have now; easy travel to other EU countries, as we have now; ceaseless complaining by the aggrieved classes in poorer parts of the country, as we have now; and total unwillingness on the part of the Westminster government to do anything for these parts of the country, as we have now.
It's not that difficult to contemplate because it's what we have now.
I would like to be pleasantly surprised and wake up one morning to the news that Westminster has noticed that the Welsh Valleys, the North-East Midlands, Lincolnshire etc. actually exist and might benefit from some attention. I don't think it'll happen, but I do know that leaving the EU won't magically make it happen either.
I've had a leaflet for the EU elections from the Greens, the Brexit party and the English Democrats. Clearly Cambridge Analytica has some fine tuning still to do.
> @Brom said: > > I think this is broadly true, it will be a massive boost for remain. Similarly if The Brexit Party win the elections then the remain campaign may be fatally dented. All to play for with a week to go.
The only thing that could fatally dent the Remain campaign would be a majority emerging behind a *deliverable* version of Brexit. A loud minority in favour of an undeliverable form of Brexit helps Remain, just as it's done ever since the referendum.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > @Charles said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > > I see Alabama gets the 'bragging rights' of harshest abortion law in the US so they can get a challenge to the Supreme Court. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48275795 > > > > > > > > > > > > The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child . > > > > > > At what point does the child acquire rights? > > > > When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe. > > > > The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA. > > I think that this law is far too harsh. > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
Most laws aren't about moral values, and where they are, the direction of travel is towards more individual freedom in moral matters e.g. gay rights.
If you're using pb.com (rather than pb.vanillacommunity.com) to post, you can still trim your quotes before posting, using the mouse or cursor keys and the delete/backspace button. It makes it much easier for everyone to read until Vanilla get their arse in gear. Thank you.
(Selecting text on a mobile is a PITA so you get a free pass if you're posting from your phone.)
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. Glenn, disagree. > > Lots of votes, maybe a majority, in a second referendum will be determined by opposing an option rather than supporting one. > > "Tell them again" is a powerful message. > > I suspect Remain stands a better chance versus May's Deal than No Deal.
Even if a majority voted for No Deal in a referendum, Remain/Rejoin would still be an option because No Deal isn't an end state.
> @kinabalu said: > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
If the roles were reversed, that is certainly how Leavers would interpret things, so it would be galling to hear them argue otherwise.
However, objectively, with a relatively low turnout compared to the referendum, and the fact that whoever tops the poll could well have less than one-third of the vote, it's pretty clear that it would say nothing, except that the country is as divided as it has been for some time.
> @Barnesian said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > @Charles said: > > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > > > > I see Alabama gets the 'bragging rights' of harshest abortion law in the US so they can get a challenge to the Supreme Court. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48275795 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child . > > > > > > > > At what point does the child acquire rights? > > > > > > When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe. > > > > > > The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA. > > > > I think that this law is far too harsh. > > > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones. > > Most laws aren't about moral values, and where they are, the direction of travel is towards more individual freedom in moral matters e.g. gay rights.
The hunting ban, equality legislation, laws regulating speech, laws against the use of drugs, restrictions on access to pornography, are all about the enforcement of legislators' moral values.
Some people see Brexit v Remain as a moral struggle.
If the government really thinks that the only options, if the WA is not passed, are No Deal or Revoke, why aren’t No Deal preparations being stepped up? Or maybe they are and we’re not noticing?
Imagine going into a No Deal exit in the winter months with no effective preparation.....
The gov gets pilloried for wasting money with no deal prep. Being paralysed they cant as a result
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > However, objectively, with a relatively low turnout compared to the referendum, and the fact that whoever tops the poll could well have less than one-third of the vote, it's pretty clear that it would say nothing, except that the country is as divided as it has been for some time. ------- What's unusual about these European elections is that they coincide with complete paralysis in Westminster.
If the Brexit Party wins, you could imagine a bloc of ERG MPs defecting and forcing a General Election, which might trigger a similar move to the Lib Dems. I know the general rule is that dramatic things happening is overpriced, but sometimes they do.
> @Recidivist said: > We have received no Euro election literature yet. > > > > . > > We've had a very professional mailshot from the Brexit Party, and an even more professional one delivered by hand by the Lib Dems.
Our delivered leaflet from the LDs was rather good, with a clever and bold message re the Brexit parties versus the Remain party. Bit of a double take on my part re singular for the Remain party and then noticed the word 'biggest' before party. So the message tiptoed over border between truth and lies as being on the truth side by the addition of one word.
The parish council in Highworth (a satellite town of Swindon, and not a million miles from here) had contested elections. The Conservative slate were all elected with over 3200 votes each.
The only problem is that only 2447 people voted. It transpires that one of the electoral staff had a problem with the whole counting lark.
(The Conservative group leader, a Mr R Mugabe, has refused to comment.)
What kind of returning officer let that happen!? I've seen the wrong candidate announced because if transposed numbers by count staff, but nothing like that.
> @williamglenn said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > However, objectively, with a relatively low turnout compared to the referendum, and the fact that whoever tops the poll could well have less than one-third of the vote, it's pretty clear that it would say nothing, except that the country is as divided as it has been for some time. > ------- > What's unusual about these European elections is that they coincide with complete paralysis in Westminster. > > If the Brexit Party wins, you could imagine a bloc of ERG MPs defecting and forcing a General Election, which might trigger a similar move to the Lib Dems. I know the general rule is that dramatic things happening is overpriced, but sometimes they do.
> The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child .
>
> At what point does the child acquire rights?
When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe.
The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA.
That’s my view as well (probably a little less than the current limit tbh)
But @nico67 implies that late term abortion should be possible in cases of rape and incest. I’m not sure the child should be blamed for the horrific nature of their conception.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @kinabalu said: > > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit. > > If the roles were reversed, that is certainly how Leavers would interpret things, so it would be galling to hear them argue otherwise. > > However, objectively, with a relatively low turnout compared to the referendum, and the fact that whoever tops the poll could well have less than one-third of the vote, it's pretty clear that it would say nothing, except that the country is as divided as it has been for some time.
The only way that the outcome could be termed meaningful would be if it was in line with my personal position.
If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ...
If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
> @williamglenn said: > > Surely an independent trade policy would be top of the list. Britain needs Yorkshire more than Yorkshire needs Britain.
I look forward to 'The Truss' standing up at Tory Conference to complain about the quantity of Wensleydale cheese that the residual England imports from Yorkshire.
As long as Gregg's sausage rolls and steak bakes make it through the customs checks on the Tees Viaduct I'll be OK. If I'm not 'sent back home'.
1/10 would be a short price, even for a Con or Lab Party ahead by these amounts. For a Party with a history of precisely zero votes, that seems super skinny. Not saying they won't win, but there must be precious little value in those odds.
> But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge.
One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult.
> @Mysticrose said: > > @isam said: > > > > > That we dont want to be in the EU > > Speak for yourself. > > 9% Remain lead in latest polling and excluding don't knows that's 12%.
> @Mysticrose said: > I just got 100/1 on the LibDems most seats with Betway. However, they only allowed me an £8.60 stake and it has instantly come in to 28/1 > >
> @Mysticrose said: > I just got 100/1 on the LibDems most seats with Betway. However, they only allowed me an £8.60 stake and it has instantly come in to 28/1 > >
How much did you want to put on at 100/1? Genuinely curious.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > > @Charles said: > > > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > > > > > > I see Alabama gets the 'bragging rights' of harshest abortion law in the US so they can get a challenge to the Supreme Court. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48275795 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child . > > > > > > > > > > At what point does the child acquire rights? > > > > > > > > When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe. > > > > > > > > The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA. > > > > > > I think that this law is far too harsh. > > > > > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones. > > > > Most laws aren't about moral values, and where they are, the direction of travel is towards more individual freedom in moral matters e.g. gay rights. > > The hunting ban, equality legislation, laws regulating speech, laws against the use of drugs, restrictions on access to pornography, are all about the enforcement of legislators' moral values. > > Some people see Brexit v Remain as a moral struggle.
You make a good point.
I see the Brexit v Remain struggle as between Internationalists v Nationalists. That's a different dimension than socially liberal v socially conservative though I suspect they are correlated.
There's a fascinating page on electoral calculus on the three dimensions. I took the test and I'm off the scale!
> @Quincel said: > > @Mysticrose said: > > I just got 100/1 on the LibDems most seats with Betway. However, they only allowed me an £8.60 stake and it has instantly come in to 28/1
> > > > How much did you want to put on at 100/1? Genuinely curious.
Actually only £15
It's the kind of betting amount I'm happy to chuck away. Do I think they will do it? No. Do I think they have a chance? Yes. A 100/1 chance? Bloody hell yes.
So I'm £8.60 on at 100/1. The kind of bet I'm happy with. We shall see!
> @williamglenn said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > However, objectively, with a relatively low turnout compared to the referendum, and the fact that whoever tops the poll could well have less than one-third of the vote, it's pretty clear that it would say nothing, except that the country is as divided as it has been for some time. > ------- > What's unusual about these European elections is that they coincide with complete paralysis in Westminster. > > If the Brexit Party wins, you could imagine a bloc of ERG MPs defecting and forcing a General Election, which might trigger a similar move to the Lib Dems. I know the general rule is that dramatic things happening is overpriced, but sometimes they do.
That is true. We also have the unique circumstance of a government sulking in the corner and not engaging in the election.
“There were 265 of those papers so it was fairly easy, that meant that each candidate of the Conservative party would be given 265 votes each. Instead of that someone multiplied the 265 votes by the ten candidates giving them 2650 votes each from the block voting.”
Knock 2385 (2650 - 265) off all the Tory votes.
All the lower Tories ought to not have seats with all the Labour and independents being elected.
> @Mysticrose said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @Mysticrose said: > > > I just got 100/1 on the LibDems most seats with Betway. However, they only allowed me an £8.60 stake and it has instantly come in to 28/1 > > > > > > > > How much did you want to put on at 100/1? Genuinely curious. > > Actually only £15 > > It's the kind of betting amount I'm happy to chuck away. Do I think they will do it? No. Do I think they have a chance? Yes. A 100/1 chance? Bloody hell yes. > > So I'm £8.60 on at 100/1. The kind of bet I'm happy with. We shall see!
Good luck. I'm not built for those kinds of odds, but credit to those who are.
If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ...
If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
If a new party comes top in an election mere weeks after being formed, only a idiot would see that as anything other than a stunning victory. When has that even happened in living memory?
All this goal post moving to down play what the polls are showing — of total votes passing the petition numbers, or matching the referendum share, or being a big swing from what UKIP got last time — simply makes Remainers look pathetic.
And if the Lib Dems come top I will happily concede that is a victory for Remain.
If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ...
If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
Don’t you consider that the petition could be signed multiple times, and by people ineligible to vote in the Elections at all?
If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ...
If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
If a new party comes top in an election mere weeks after being formed, only a idiot would see that as anything other than a stunning victory. When has that even happened in living memory?
All this goal post moving to down play what the polls are showing — of total votes passing the petition numbers, or matching the referendum share, or being a big swing from what UKIP got last time — simply makes Remainers look pathetic.
And if the Lib Dems come top I will happily concede that is a victory for Remain.
It happens every time Farage is doing well, logic and proportion go out of the window. He is Emanuel Goldstein and this is their two minutes hate.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones. > > I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge. > > One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult.
I don't think the distinction between Reason and Belief is at all clearcut.
> > If a new party comes top in an election mere weeks after being formed, only a idiot would see that as anything other than a stunning victory. When has that even happened in living memory? > >
Nah. They're not really a new party at all. The Brexit Party is basically UKIP. Farage's unit.
Stop and think about it.
They're also a one trick pony playing on one central and massively vexatious issue of the day.
With Theresa May's Conservatives so hugely unpopular, especially with her own party, anything other than a Brexit Party win will be rightly seen as disappointing for them now.
> @glw said: > If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ... > > > > If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort > > If a new party comes top in an election mere weeks after being formed, only a idiot would see that as anything other than a stunning victory. When has that even happened in living memory? > > All this goal post moving to down play what the polls are showing — of total votes passing the petition numbers, or matching the referendum share, or being a big swing from what UKIP got last time — simply makes Remainers look pathetic. > > And if the Lib Dems come top I will happily concede that is a victory for Remain.
It is hard to see Farage's BP exceeding the 2014 UKIP vote of 4,376,635
> @Mysticrose said: > If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ... > > If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
If the Remainers don't turn out to vote then it doesn't matter that they signed a petition.
> If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ...
>
> If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
If the Remainers don't turn out to vote then it doesn't matter that they signed a petition.
If CUK can't get at least 6 million votes are they even a real politcal party?
> @kle4 said: > This is spectacular: > > https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/highworth-council-election-count-petition-high-court-local-elections/ > > The parish council in Highworth (a satellite town of Swindon, and not a million miles from here) had contested elections. The Conservative slate were all elected with over 3200 votes each. > > The only problem is that only 2447 people voted. It transpires that one of the electoral staff had a problem with the whole counting lark. > > (The Conservative group leader, a Mr R Mugabe, has refused to comment.) > > What kind of returning officer let that happen!? I've seen the wrong candidate announced because if transposed numbers by count staff, but nothing like that.
> @kle4 said: > This is spectacular: > > https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/highworth-council-election-count-petition-high-court-local-elections/ > > The parish council in Highworth (a satellite town of Swindon, and not a million miles from here) had contested elections. The Conservative slate were all elected with over 3200 votes each. > > The only problem is that only 2447 people voted. It transpires that one of the electoral staff had a problem with the whole counting lark. > > (The Conservative group leader, a Mr R Mugabe, has refused to comment.) > > What kind of returning officer let that happen!? I've seen the wrong candidate announced because if transposed numbers by count staff, but nothing like that.
You might have seen on the news that a husband and wife stood in the locals and the wife won and the husband didn't but the husband was declared and not the wife.
I have also witnessed 3 cockups at one count:
The returning officer was shouted down when he was about to declare a parish result as 5 Con 1 LD. It was in fact 6 LD, which should have been obvious as they had just taken the 3 Borough seats easily. He was stopped in time.
A very close split Borough seat 1 Con 1 LD should have been 2 Con. We had no idea what happened and were surprised the Conservatives didn't spot it.
Finally and on this one I can't be sure, but we were late to the count (no excuse) and the first result was in (although not declared) and it was a target and we had missed it. However the result did not make sense. The LD candidates were husband and wife. They had stood several times before. She always out polled him by a margin. The Conservatives were made up of an incumbent who lived in the ward and a newbie from outside of the ward who was also lower on the ballot paper. Both sets of candidates votes were the opposite way around to what we would have expected and by a margin. Our grounds for a recount were to put it mildly weak. Namely - We don't believe the result but we couldn't be arsed to turn up in time for the count to be able to tell you why!
It happens every time Farage is doing well, logic and proportion go out of the window. He is Emanuel Goldstein and this is their two minutes hate.
I will not be voting for them, as I do not support the Brexit Party. But it is laughable the way Remainers try to down play the Brexit Party's apparent popularity. By any normal definition the Brexit Party looks like it will be the winner of the election if the polls are right.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714 > I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn).
I refuse to believe that the EU elite really cares much about Ireland, although that hasn't stopped them playing the border issue for all its worth in their quest to prevent any meaningful Brexit. I do think though that they care about Germany, in so far that they would be fearful of the intense pressure that would have been be brought to bear from Germany to reach a settlement that limited trade barriers with the UK if we left before reaching a settlement. However, as they had pretty well sussed out our lame PM from the outset they also knew that there was never any chance of that while May was at the help.
Latest comments from the German equivalent of the CBI on the risks to the German economy, as quoted in the Telegraph:
"Factors include the UK’s threatened withdrawal from the EU and the trade dispute between the US and China. Cutbacks in car production for regulatory reasons and the low water levels in the Rhine also caused a slowdown in Germany last year.
An economic recovery comes down to the resolution of trade disputes between the US and China and between the US and EU. German politics must do everything possible to strengthen public and private investment.”
> @Pulpstar said: > re @kle4: > > “There were 265 of those papers so it was fairly easy, that meant that each candidate of the Conservative party would be given 265 votes each. Instead of that someone multiplied the 265 votes by the ten candidates giving them 2650 votes each from the block voting.” > > Knock 2385 (2650 - 265) off all the Tory votes. > > All the lower Tories ought to not have seats with all the Labour and independents being elected.
I noticed that, but the returning officer also said she didn't think it made a difference. She either can't count (and it is not looking good for her on that front) or there were block votes the other way that were also multiplied up wrongly.
> @Barnesian said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > > > @Charles said: > > > > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > I see Alabama gets the 'bragging rights' of harshest abortion law in the US so they can get a challenge to the Supreme Court. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48275795 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child . > > > > > > > > > > > > At what point does the child acquire rights? > > > > > > > > > > When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe. > > > > > > > > > > The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA. > > > > > > > > I think that this law is far too harsh. > > > > > > > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones. > > > > > > Most laws aren't about moral values, and where they are, the direction of travel is towards more individual freedom in moral matters e.g. gay rights. > > > > The hunting ban, equality legislation, laws regulating speech, laws against the use of drugs, restrictions on access to pornography, are all about the enforcement of legislators' moral values. > > > > Some people see Brexit v Remain as a moral struggle. > > You make a good point. > > I see the Brexit v Remain struggle as between Internationalists v Nationalists. > That's a different dimension than socially liberal v socially conservative though I suspect they are correlated. > > There's a fascinating page on electoral calculus on the three dimensions. I took the test and I'm off the scale! > > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html >
Economic moderate. Strongly globalist. Very strongly socially liberal. Could have told you that myself. It is a good test. I normally end up too far on the Left on these things. But I am economically pretty Centrist.
It happens every time Farage is doing well, logic and proportion go out of the window. He is Emanuel Goldstein and this is their two minutes hate.
I will not be voting for them, as I do not support the Brexit Party. But it is laughable the way Remainers try to down play the Brexit Party's apparent popularity. By any normal definition the Brexit Party looks like it will be the winner of the election if the polls are right.
It's more pitiful than laughable, its bordering on the unhinged.
I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say to yourself "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds?
> @Sean_F said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones. > > > > I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge. > > > > One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult. > > I don't think the distinction between Reason and Belief is at all clearcut. > > Humans are very good at rationalising beliefs.
Laws based on credal beliefs are incompatible with democracy.
If a law is based on what a God wants how can voting possibly be allowed to change it?
That is why any attempt to include a religiously based belief into our laws should be resisted at all costs. (If you want to see an example of what I am talking about there is an egregious example on the front page of today's Times. Look past the headlines and it would in effect impose a Muslim blasphemy law on us all. No. Just no.)
No-one should be forced to have an abortion; no doctor or nurse should be forced to give an abortion if they feel, in all conscience, unable to do so. But no woman should be denied an abortion on the basis of someone else's religious belief.
> > I just got 100/1 on the LibDems most seats with Betway. However, they only allowed me an £8.60 stake and it has instantly come in to 28/1
> >
>
> How much did you want to put on at 100/1? Genuinely curious.
Actually only £15
It's the kind of betting amount I'm happy to chuck away. Do I think they will do it? No. Do I think they have a chance? Yes. A 100/1 chance? Bloody hell yes.
So I'm £8.60 on at 100/1. The kind of bet I'm happy with. We shall see!
I think that is a fantastic bet. I don't think they'll do it either, but it is certainly not impossible.
> @Mysticrose said: > > @glw said: > > > > > If a new party comes top in an election mere weeks after being formed, only a idiot would see that as anything other than a stunning victory. When has that even happened in living memory?
> @Sean_F said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones. > > > > I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge. > > > > One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult. > > I don't think the distinction between Reason and Belief is at all clearcut. > > Humans are very good at rationalising beliefs.
To themselves. You can see it on both sides of the Leave/Remain struggle.
I think it is necessary to distinguish between the HOW and the WHAT, the means and the ends.
If we agree on the ends, we can reason, and perhaps disagree, on the means. If we don't agree on the ends, we'll never agree no matter how much reason is used. The only way to change opinion on ends is by appeal to emotion, not reason.
Comments
> If the Tories are going to go for a hardcore Brexiteer then it ought to be Baker. He actually believes in a hard brexit unlike Boris who is simply using it for career advancement.
And you've backed him.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1128601532310675457
Looking forward to reading what the Yorkshire Party have to say. I shall be searching nervously for the word 'deportation' in their list of policies.
> > @Nigelb said:
> > > @tlg86 said:
> > > > @Nigelb said:
> > > > > @tlg86 said:
> > > > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd
> > > > >
> > > > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama
> > > > >
> > > > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
> > > >
> > > > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ?
> > >
> > > But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion?
> >
> > I can't find the polling for Alabama, but it also appears to reflect opinion on the specific issue from the evidence of Georgia:
> > https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/interactive-poll-georgia-voters-april-2019/UNhiJklHIc4Uf84ZKjJtML/
>
> The interesting thing there is that there is a bigger difference between white/black than male/female.
>
> I suppose one could argue that the (democratically?) elected white politicians are in tune with the white voters, but I guess that's not the point the Guarian want to make!
Either the law is good or bad. The identity of the people passing it is irrelevant to the argument.
Worked for me for Premier Sports channel..
> If the Tories are going to go for a hardcore Brexiteer then it ought to be Baker. He actually believes in a hard brexit unlike Boris who is simply using it for career advancement.
The problem is competence not levels of Brexiteeryness.
> After the polling disasters of 2015, 2016, & 2017, will the Brexit Party be the latest 1/10 shot chinned?
Trying to be as objective as I can given I have strong views on Brexit, I do think the answer must be 'Probably not, but there's a more than 10% chance'. The odds are too tight. Too many polls have it fairly close, and the new party/big swings/etc added factors make it fairly unpredictable.
Brexit Party are clearly strong favourites, but 1/10 is more than just strong favourites. It's 'Barely possible to imagine them losing' territory, and the polls aren't in that area.
> We have received no Euro election literature yet.
>
> Looking forward to reading what the Yorkshire Party have to say. I shall be searching nervously for the word 'deportation' in their list of policies.
Surely an independent trade policy would be top of the list. Britain needs Yorkshire more than Yorkshire needs Britain.
If the identity of those voting for it is irrelevant, then why your objections to EU legislation ?
> > @nico67 said:
> > Comres v YouGov.
> >
> > We can start seeing why there are such big differences.
> >
> > The turnout is key .
> >
> > It’s the bigger difference between over 65s voting versus the rest.
> >
> > Comres has all voting groups between a much narrower range . YouGov has a much bigger lead for over 65s .
> >
> > That age range is the biggest supporter of the BP.
> >
>
> There's nothing strange about polling companies showing divergent results. They ought to, if they're doing their jobs properly.
>
>
I’m well aware of that . But a 16 point difference between two polls over a short period of time should raise alarm bells .
Both done online so lack of the shy voter effect . One expects to see differences of course because of sampling but clearly there are issues with the current polling.
It worked very well - but should be a very niche market. Equity release is massively oversold.
Banking should be a utility - financial service professionals are overpaid and self important gamblers
Con 26.3%, Lab 30.5%, LD 14.4%, Brex 17.3%
Seats
Con 244
Lab 307
LD 21
Brex 2
Green 1
PC 4
SNP 53
NI 18
Lab 307 seats 19 short of an overall majority with 30.5% share.
Brexit 2 seats with 17.3% share.
Good old FPTP
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > We have received no Euro election literature yet.
> >
> > Looking forward to reading what the Yorkshire Party have to say. I shall be searching nervously for the word 'deportation' in their list of policies.
>
> Surely an independent trade policy would be top of the list. Britain needs Yorkshire more than Yorkshire needs Britain.
Britain's southern softies will be desperate to do a deal, Yorkshire holds most of the cards in any negotiation.
> If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
Yes I'm sure everyone will put the issue to bed, get over the idea and nobody will mention the £12Bn and rising pa ever again.
Remain in practice is an idea that has yet to be contemplated in public - it will not be a pleasant experience for the nation.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > If the government really thinks that the only options, if the WA is not passed, are No Deal or Revoke, why aren’t No Deal preparations being stepped up? Or maybe they are and we’re not noticing?
> >
> > Imagine going into a No Deal exit in the winter months with no effective preparation.....
>
> All the No Deal preparations have been cancelled, or perhaps mothballed. You would expect it would be one of the first things a new Leaver PM would do, to restart them at great expense.
They only stopped Operation Yellowhammer, which was the no deal planning that had to be in place days before a no deal. i.e staff at ports to wave through medicines, extra capacity dedicated to medicines.
They have not stopped general no deal planning.
> > @tlg86 said:
>
> > > @Nigelb said:
>
> > > > @tlg86 said:
>
> > > > > @Nigelb said:
>
> > > > > > @tlg86 said:
>
> > > > > > https://tinyurl.com/y64vgncd
>
> > > > > >
>
> > > > > > These 25 white men – all Republicans – just voted to ban abortion in Alabama
>
> > > > > >
>
> > > > > > I'm curious, would it have been more acceptable to the Guardian had they not been white?
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > The point being, I would think, that they reflect around a third of their electorate ?
>
> > > >
>
> > > > But what's that got to do with the specific issue of abortion?
>
> > >
>
> > > I can't find the polling for Alabama, but it also appears to reflect opinion on the specific issue from the evidence of Georgia:
>
> > > https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/interactive-poll-georgia-voters-april-2019/UNhiJklHIc4Uf84ZKjJtML/
>
> >
>
> > The interesting thing there is that there is a bigger difference between white/black than male/female.
>
> >
>
> > I suppose one could argue that the (democratically?) elected white politicians are in tune with the white voters, but I guess that's not the point the Guarian want to make!
>
>
>
> Either the law is good or bad. The identity of the people passing it is irrelevant to the argument.
>
> It's a bad law.
> If the identity of those voting for it is irrelevant, then why your objections to EU legislation ?
The race and sex of EU officials has no bearing on my views about the organisation.
> If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
And if TBP come first?
*With other people. Ahem.
>
> And if TBP come first?
Then it's game on.
> If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
This is a good example of the narrative I mentioned in my previous post. It's nonsense of course, but people love to engage in wishful thinking.
We can hope but if you look at the polling the BP is likely to win . They have a motivated group of voters and a clear message .
I think the main other interest is what happens with the Lib Dems . I do feel rather bad for Change UK who have really not got going . I really like many of their MPs but I think they got a bit over confident at the start and have made quite a lot of mistakes .
In hindsight they really should have joined the Lib Dems .
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > I see Alabama gets the 'bragging rights' of harshest abortion law in the US so they can get a challenge to the Supreme Court.
>
> >
>
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48275795
>
>
>
> The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child .
>
> At what point does the child acquire rights?
When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe.
The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA.
> Remainers need to be realistic .
>
> We can hope but if you look at the polling the BP is likely to win . They have a motivated group of voters and a clear message .
>
> I think the main other interest is what happens with the Lib Dems . I do feel rather bad for Change UK who have really not got going . I really like many of their MPs but I think they got a bit over confident at the start and have made quite a lot of mistakes .
>
> In hindsight they really should have joined the Lib Dems .
Given they contain probably the biggest liar in parliament (Wollaston) I think sympathy will be in short supply. There was an arrogance to Change UK from the beginning - just expecting to grab all the Tory and Labour remainers without doing anything. Compared to the hard work, planning and organisation of The Brexit Party and you can see why one is succeeding and one is failing.
> If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
I think this is broadly true, it will be a massive boost for remain. Similarly if The Brexit Party win the elections then the remain campaign may be fatally dented. All to play for with a week to go.
> > @Charles said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> >
> > > I see Alabama gets the 'bragging rights' of harshest abortion law in the US so they can get a challenge to the Supreme Court.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48275795
> >
> >
> >
> > The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child .
> >
> > At what point does the child acquire rights?
>
> When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe.
>
> The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA.
I think that this law is far too harsh.
But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
> I have yet to receive any election literature at all from the Labour party. None. In a Labour seat.
I have only had one leaflet so far - and that was from Labour.
> Compared to the hard work, planning and organisation of The Brexit Party and you can see why one is succeeding and one is failing.
Like a microcosm of the referendum - thinking that to be right in your own mind is enough to win.
It's not that difficult to contemplate because it's what we have now.
I would like to be pleasantly surprised and wake up one morning to the news that Westminster has noticed that the Welsh Valleys, the North-East Midlands, Lincolnshire etc. actually exist and might benefit from some attention. I don't think it'll happen, but I do know that leaving the EU won't magically make it happen either.
>
> I think this is broadly true, it will be a massive boost for remain. Similarly if The Brexit Party win the elections then the remain campaign may be fatally dented. All to play for with a week to go.
The only thing that could fatally dent the Remain campaign would be a majority emerging behind a *deliverable* version of Brexit. A loud minority in favour of an undeliverable form of Brexit helps Remain, just as it's done ever since the referendum.
Lots of votes, maybe a majority, in a second referendum will be determined by opposing an option rather than supporting one.
"Tell them again" is a powerful message.
I suspect Remain stands a better chance versus May's Deal than No Deal.
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @Charles said:
> > > > @kle4 said:
> > >
> > > > I see Alabama gets the 'bragging rights' of harshest abortion law in the US so they can get a challenge to the Supreme Court.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48275795
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child .
> > >
> > > At what point does the child acquire rights?
> >
> > When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe.
> >
> > The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA.
>
> I think that this law is far too harsh.
>
> But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
Most laws aren't about moral values, and where they are, the direction of travel is towards more individual freedom in moral matters e.g. gay rights.
This will be the easiest deal in history?
They need us more than we need them?
German car makers will save us?
If you're using pb.com (rather than pb.vanillacommunity.com) to post, you can still trim your quotes before posting, using the mouse or cursor keys and the delete/backspace button. It makes it much easier for everyone to read until Vanilla get their arse in gear. Thank you.
(Selecting text on a mobile is a PITA so you get a free pass if you're posting from your phone.)
> Mr. Glenn, disagree.
>
> Lots of votes, maybe a majority, in a second referendum will be determined by opposing an option rather than supporting one.
>
> "Tell them again" is a powerful message.
>
> I suspect Remain stands a better chance versus May's Deal than No Deal.
Even if a majority voted for No Deal in a referendum, Remain/Rejoin would still be an option because No Deal isn't an end state.
> If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
If the roles were reversed, that is certainly how Leavers would interpret things, so it would be galling to hear them argue otherwise.
However, objectively, with a relatively low turnout compared to the referendum, and the fact that whoever tops the poll could well have less than one-third of the vote, it's pretty clear that it would say nothing, except that the country is as divided as it has been for some time.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > @Charles said:
> > > > > @kle4 said:
> > > >
> > > > > I see Alabama gets the 'bragging rights' of harshest abortion law in the US so they can get a challenge to the Supreme Court.
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48275795
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child .
> > > >
> > > > At what point does the child acquire rights?
> > >
> > > When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe.
> > >
> > > The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA.
> >
> > I think that this law is far too harsh.
> >
> > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
>
> Most laws aren't about moral values, and where they are, the direction of travel is towards more individual freedom in moral matters e.g. gay rights.
The hunting ban, equality legislation, laws regulating speech, laws against the use of drugs, restrictions on access to pornography, are all about the enforcement of legislators' moral values.
Some people see Brexit v Remain as a moral struggle.
> Tell them what?
>
That Brexit is Bollox, presumably
>
> However, objectively, with a relatively low turnout compared to the referendum, and the fact that whoever tops the poll could well have less than one-third of the vote, it's pretty clear that it would say nothing, except that the country is as divided as it has been for some time.
-------
What's unusual about these European elections is that they coincide with complete paralysis in Westminster.
If the Brexit Party wins, you could imagine a bloc of ERG MPs defecting and forcing a General Election, which might trigger a similar move to the Lib Dems. I know the general rule is that dramatic things happening is overpriced, but sometimes they do.
> We have received no Euro election literature yet.
>
>
>
> .
>
> We've had a very professional mailshot from the Brexit Party, and an even more professional one delivered by hand by the Lib Dems.
Our delivered leaflet from the LDs was rather good, with a clever and bold message re the Brexit parties versus the Remain party. Bit of a double take on my part re singular for the Remain party and then noticed the word 'biggest' before party. So the message tiptoed over border between truth and lies as being on the truth side by the addition of one word.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> >
> > However, objectively, with a relatively low turnout compared to the referendum, and the fact that whoever tops the poll could well have less than one-third of the vote, it's pretty clear that it would say nothing, except that the country is as divided as it has been for some time.
> -------
> What's unusual about these European elections is that they coincide with complete paralysis in Westminster.
>
> If the Brexit Party wins, you could imagine a bloc of ERG MPs defecting and forcing a General Election, which might trigger a similar move to the Lib Dems. I know the general rule is that dramatic things happening is overpriced, but sometimes they do.
I'm not sure that Farage wants defectors.
But @nico67 implies that late term abortion should be possible in cases of rape and incest. I’m not sure the child should be blamed for the horrific nature of their conception.
>
> I'm not sure that Farage wants defectors.
He could string them along though in order to be able to gain power over events.
>
> That we dont want to be in the EU
Speak for yourself.
9% Remain lead in latest polling and excluding don't knows that's 12%.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > If Vince beats Nigel in total votes for the Euros it's game over for Leave. There is no way to interpret that as anything other than a clear change of heart from 2016. It will mean that we collectively, on balance and in the round and on the whole, are saying Bollocks to Brexit.
>
> If the roles were reversed, that is certainly how Leavers would interpret things, so it would be galling to hear them argue otherwise.
>
> However, objectively, with a relatively low turnout compared to the referendum, and the fact that whoever tops the poll could well have less than one-third of the vote, it's pretty clear that it would say nothing, except that the country is as divided as it has been for some time.
The only way that the outcome could be termed meaningful would be if it was in line with my personal position.
If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
>
> Surely an independent trade policy would be top of the list. Britain needs Yorkshire more than Yorkshire needs Britain.
I look forward to 'The Truss' standing up at Tory Conference to complain about the quantity of Wensleydale cheese that the residual England imports from Yorkshire.
As long as Gregg's sausage rolls and steak bakes make it through the customs checks on the Tees Viaduct I'll be OK. If I'm not 'sent back home'.
Not saying they won't win, but there must be precious little value in those odds.
> But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge.
One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult.
> > @isam said:
>
> >
> > That we dont want to be in the EU
>
> Speak for yourself.
>
> 9% Remain lead in latest polling and excluding don't knows that's 12%.
They led by 9% in a poll.
> I just got 100/1 on the LibDems most seats with Betway. However, they only allowed me an £8.60 stake and it has instantly come in to 28/1
>
>
> @Mysticrose said:
> I just got 100/1 on the LibDems most seats with Betway. However, they only allowed me an £8.60 stake and it has instantly come in to 28/1
>
>
How much did you want to put on at 100/1? Genuinely curious.
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > > @Charles said:
> > > > > > @kle4 said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > I see Alabama gets the 'bragging rights' of harshest abortion law in the US so they can get a challenge to the Supreme Court.
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48275795
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child .
> > > > >
> > > > > At what point does the child acquire rights?
> > > >
> > > > When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe.
> > > >
> > > > The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA.
> > >
> > > I think that this law is far too harsh.
> > >
> > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
> >
> > Most laws aren't about moral values, and where they are, the direction of travel is towards more individual freedom in moral matters e.g. gay rights.
>
> The hunting ban, equality legislation, laws regulating speech, laws against the use of drugs, restrictions on access to pornography, are all about the enforcement of legislators' moral values.
>
> Some people see Brexit v Remain as a moral struggle.
You make a good point.
I see the Brexit v Remain struggle as between Internationalists v Nationalists.
That's a different dimension than socially liberal v socially conservative though I suspect they are correlated.
There's a fascinating page on electoral calculus on the three dimensions. I took the test and I'm off the scale!
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > I just got 100/1 on the LibDems most seats with Betway. However, they only allowed me an £8.60 stake and it has instantly come in to 28/1
> >
>
> How much did you want to put on at 100/1? Genuinely curious.
Actually only £15
It's the kind of betting amount I'm happy to chuck away. Do I think they will do it? No. Do I think they have a chance? Yes. A 100/1 chance? Bloody hell yes.
So I'm £8.60 on at 100/1. The kind of bet I'm happy with. We shall see!
Hard not to laugh.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> >
> > However, objectively, with a relatively low turnout compared to the referendum, and the fact that whoever tops the poll could well have less than one-third of the vote, it's pretty clear that it would say nothing, except that the country is as divided as it has been for some time.
> -------
> What's unusual about these European elections is that they coincide with complete paralysis in Westminster.
>
> If the Brexit Party wins, you could imagine a bloc of ERG MPs defecting and forcing a General Election, which might trigger a similar move to the Lib Dems. I know the general rule is that dramatic things happening is overpriced, but sometimes they do.
That is true. We also have the unique circumstance of a government sulking in the corner and not engaging in the election.
More than just blockquotes broken.
“There were 265 of those papers so it was fairly easy, that meant that each candidate of the Conservative party would be given 265 votes each. Instead of that someone multiplied the 265 votes by the ten candidates giving them 2650 votes each from the block voting.”
Knock 2385 (2650 - 265) off all the Tory votes.
All the lower Tories ought to not have seats with all the Labour and independents being elected.
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @Mysticrose said:
> > > I just got 100/1 on the LibDems most seats with Betway. However, they only allowed me an £8.60 stake and it has instantly come in to 28/1
>
> > >
> >
> > How much did you want to put on at 100/1? Genuinely curious.
>
> Actually only £15
>
> It's the kind of betting amount I'm happy to chuck away. Do I think they will do it? No. Do I think they have a chance? Yes. A 100/1 chance? Bloody hell yes.
>
> So I'm £8.60 on at 100/1. The kind of bet I'm happy with. We shall see!
Good luck. I'm not built for those kinds of odds, but credit to those who are.
All this goal post moving to down play what the polls are showing — of total votes passing the petition numbers, or matching the referendum share, or being a big swing from what UKIP got last time — simply makes Remainers look pathetic.
And if the Lib Dems come top I will happily concede that is a victory for Remain.
> > @Sean_F said:
>
> > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
>
> I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge.
>
> One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult.
I don't think the distinction between Reason and Belief is at all clearcut.
Humans are very good at rationalising beliefs.
>
> If a new party comes top in an election mere weeks after being formed, only a idiot would see that as anything other than a stunning victory. When has that even happened in living memory?
>
>
Nah. They're not really a new party at all. The Brexit Party is basically UKIP. Farage's unit.
Stop and think about it.
They're also a one trick pony playing on one central and massively vexatious issue of the day.
With Theresa May's Conservatives so hugely unpopular, especially with her own party, anything other than a Brexit Party win will be rightly seen as disappointing for them now.
> If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ...
>
>
>
> If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
>
> If a new party comes top in an election mere weeks after being formed, only a idiot would see that as anything other than a stunning victory. When has that even happened in living memory?
>
> All this goal post moving to down play what the polls are showing — of total votes passing the petition numbers, or matching the referendum share, or being a big swing from what UKIP got last time — simply makes Remainers look pathetic.
>
> And if the Lib Dems come top I will happily concede that is a victory for Remain.
It is hard to see Farage's BP exceeding the 2014 UKIP vote of 4,376,635
> If the BP win next week as I currently think, on balance, likely a key barometer for the Remain cause will be whether or not the BP exceeded the 6 million who petitioned to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU ...
>
> If they don't hit 6 million then it's an obvious Remain retort
If the Remainers don't turn out to vote then it doesn't matter that they signed a petition.
> It is hard to see Farage's BP exceeding the 2014 UKIP vote of 4,376,635
I agree
> > @MikeSmithson said:
>
> > It is hard to see Farage's BP exceeding the 2014 UKIP vote of 4,376,635
>
> I agree
That depends on turnout. If turnout is up on 2014, then I think TBP will exceed that figure.
> This is spectacular:
>
> https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/highworth-council-election-count-petition-high-court-local-elections/
>
> The parish council in Highworth (a satellite town of Swindon, and not a million miles from here) had contested elections. The Conservative slate were all elected with over 3200 votes each.
>
> The only problem is that only 2447 people voted. It transpires that one of the electoral staff had a problem with the whole counting lark.
>
> (The Conservative group leader, a Mr R Mugabe, has refused to comment.)
>
> What kind of returning officer let that happen!? I've seen the wrong candidate announced because if transposed numbers by count staff, but nothing like that.
> @kle4 said:
> This is spectacular:
>
> https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/highworth-council-election-count-petition-high-court-local-elections/
>
> The parish council in Highworth (a satellite town of Swindon, and not a million miles from here) had contested elections. The Conservative slate were all elected with over 3200 votes each.
>
> The only problem is that only 2447 people voted. It transpires that one of the electoral staff had a problem with the whole counting lark.
>
> (The Conservative group leader, a Mr R Mugabe, has refused to comment.)
>
> What kind of returning officer let that happen!? I've seen the wrong candidate announced because if transposed numbers by count staff, but nothing like that.
You might have seen on the news that a husband and wife stood in the locals and the wife won and the husband didn't but the husband was declared and not the wife.
I have also witnessed 3 cockups at one count:
The returning officer was shouted down when he was about to declare a parish result as 5 Con 1 LD. It was in fact 6 LD, which should have been obvious as they had just taken the 3 Borough seats easily. He was stopped in time.
A very close split Borough seat 1 Con 1 LD should have been 2 Con. We had no idea what happened and were surprised the Conservatives didn't spot it.
Finally and on this one I can't be sure, but we were late to the count (no excuse) and the first result was in (although not declared) and it was a target and we had missed it. However the result did not make sense. The LD candidates were husband and wife. They had stood several times before. She always out polled him by a margin. The Conservatives were made up of an incumbent who lived in the ward and a newbie from outside of the ward who was also lower on the ballot paper. Both sets of candidates votes were the opposite way around to what we would have expected and by a margin. Our grounds for a recount were to put it mildly weak. Namely - We don't believe the result but we couldn't be arsed to turn up in time for the count to be able to tell you why!
If turn out is similar, you are saying its hard to see TBP matching their worst recent opinion poll score., why is that?
> https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1128539616947187714
> I refuse to believe that the EU would inflict the consequences of a no deal Brexit onto Ireland. That only becomes possible if the PM decides it is preferable (which looks fairly likely if we have a new PM by the autumn).
I refuse to believe that the EU elite really cares much about Ireland, although that hasn't stopped them playing the border issue for all its worth in their quest to prevent any meaningful Brexit. I do think though that they care about Germany, in so far that they would be fearful of the intense pressure that would have been be brought to bear from Germany to reach a settlement that limited trade barriers with the UK if we left before reaching a settlement. However, as they had pretty well sussed out our lame PM from the outset they also knew that there was never any chance of that while May was at the help.
Latest comments from the German equivalent of the CBI on the risks to the German economy, as quoted in the Telegraph:
"Factors include the UK’s threatened withdrawal from the EU and the trade dispute between the US and China. Cutbacks in car production for regulatory reasons and the low water levels in the Rhine also caused a slowdown in Germany last year.
An economic recovery comes down to the resolution of trade disputes between the US and China and between the US and EU. German politics must do everything possible to strengthen public and private investment.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/05/15/germany-risks-left-high-dry-economy-stutters/
> re @kle4:
>
> “There were 265 of those papers so it was fairly easy, that meant that each candidate of the Conservative party would be given 265 votes each. Instead of that someone multiplied the 265 votes by the ten candidates giving them 2650 votes each from the block voting.”
>
> Knock 2385 (2650 - 265) off all the Tory votes.
>
> All the lower Tories ought to not have seats with all the Labour and independents being elected.
I noticed that, but the returning officer also said she didn't think it made a difference. She either can't count (and it is not looking good for her on that front) or there were block votes the other way that were also multiplied up wrongly.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > > > @Charles said:
> > > > > > > @kle4 said:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > I see Alabama gets the 'bragging rights' of harshest abortion law in the US so they can get a challenge to the Supreme Court.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48275795
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The Republicans really are loathsome scum . Utterly disgraceful , forcing a woman who is the victim of rape or incest to carry a child .
> > > > > >
> > > > > > At what point does the child acquire rights?
> > > > >
> > > > > When it is viable - unless you are religious on which case it has a soul and rights at conception which some people believe.
> > > > >
> > > > > The problem is people with particular religious beliefs trying to force those beliefs on others. You see that in Saudi Arabia and in some parts of the USA.
> > > >
> > > > I think that this law is far too harsh.
> > > >
> > > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
> > >
> > > Most laws aren't about moral values, and where they are, the direction of travel is towards more individual freedom in moral matters e.g. gay rights.
> >
> > The hunting ban, equality legislation, laws regulating speech, laws against the use of drugs, restrictions on access to pornography, are all about the enforcement of legislators' moral values.
> >
> > Some people see Brexit v Remain as a moral struggle.
>
> You make a good point.
>
> I see the Brexit v Remain struggle as between Internationalists v Nationalists.
> That's a different dimension than socially liberal v socially conservative though I suspect they are correlated.
>
> There's a fascinating page on electoral calculus on the three dimensions. I took the test and I'm off the scale!
>
> https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html
>
Economic moderate. Strongly globalist. Very strongly socially liberal. Could have told you that myself.
It is a good test. I normally end up too far on the Left on these things. But I am economically pretty Centrist.
I don't see what they get out of it. Is it really such consolation to be able to say to yourself "Well they didn't do as well as the false target I arbitrarily set them in my mind" when someone you don't like succeeds?
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> >
> > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
> >
> > I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge.
> >
> > One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult.
>
> I don't think the distinction between Reason and Belief is at all clearcut.
>
> Humans are very good at rationalising beliefs.
Laws based on credal beliefs are incompatible with democracy.
If a law is based on what a God wants how can voting possibly be allowed to change it?
That is why any attempt to include a religiously based belief into our laws should be resisted at all costs. (If you want to see an example of what I am talking about there is an egregious example on the front page of today's Times. Look past the headlines and it would in effect impose a Muslim blasphemy law on us all. No. Just no.)
No-one should be forced to have an abortion; no doctor or nurse should be forced to give an abortion if they feel, in all conscience, unable to do so. But no woman should be denied an abortion on the basis of someone else's religious belief.
> > @glw said:
>
> >
> > If a new party comes top in an election mere weeks after being formed, only a idiot would see that as anything other than a stunning victory. When has that even happened in living memory?
Macron
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> >
> > > But, what is politics, if not enforcing your view of what is right on others? That's as common among non-religious politicians as religious ones.
> >
> > I think you can draw a distinction between enforcing laws that are based on Reason - and which in principle should be open to debate and have the potential to be changed - and laws that are based on Belief - which in principle is fixed and not open to challenge.
> >
> > One reason this distinction is breaking down is that both sides of political debate now prefer to present their reasoning as fact, and therefore not open to reasonable challenge. If all political opinion is presented as infallible fact then excluding faith is more difficult.
>
> I don't think the distinction between Reason and Belief is at all clearcut.
>
> Humans are very good at rationalising beliefs.
_____________________________________________________________________
To themselves. You can see it on both sides of the Leave/Remain struggle.
I think it is necessary to distinguish between the HOW and the WHAT, the means and the ends.
If we agree on the ends, we can reason, and perhaps disagree, on the means. If we don't agree on the ends, we'll never agree no matter how much reason is used. The only way to change opinion on ends is by appeal to emotion, not reason.