"Prison for strikers, bring back the cat. Throw out the n*ggers, how about that?" as Philip Larkin said.
Great poet, shame about his politics.
Clive James once mounted a rather robust defence of Philip Larkin based on his observation that Larkin's other writings offered evidence against Larkins's racist ones. It might not pass muster in today's court of public opinion, but you could see James's reasoning.
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > I see people are starting to use "Faragist" to give the former UKIP leader a certain fascist feel. Though I am not sure the people use it recognise the linguistic similarity to Falangist, with its close relationship to Francoist Spain and its fascist leanings.
Pretty sure a few people recognise the association, I wouldn't say its the biggest leap to make.
'X denounced capitalism for being an individualist economy at the hands of the bourgeoisie that turned workers "into a dehumanized cog in the machinery of bourgeois production" while state socialist economies enslaved the individual by handing control of production to the state.'
Of course Falangism was (much as I deplore it) a reasonably developed political philosophy, Faragism, not so much.
> @rural_voter said: > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > > @Blue_rog said: > > > I wonder if the EU are completing their preparations for a no deal Brexit and looking over the channel in amazement at the complacency of the British Politicians. > > > > > > I wouldn't be surprised if, come October, they say - "you've had your grace period, now leave!" > > > > When you can't decide yourself, other eventually make your decision for you. > > > > A Brexit Party win in the Euors and in the Posh by-election might be enough to confirm to the EU that they're better off without us. > _________________________________________________________________ > It's the percentage vote that counts. If the 6M would get out and vote, that's 50% of the 2014 turnout, even before the less enthustiastic voters appear. > > Now that the shock of 2016 has apparently given the UK its first ever pro-EU movement, * they know what to do on 23 May. Some may of course vote Tory or Labour and deny CUK/Green/LD/PC/SNP a vote. > > On 23 March in London, there were large Momentum for EU and Tories for EU banners. I can't remember ever seeing the right and left supporting the same cause before. Maybe those people are tribally loyal? > > * I think there was a European federalist movement led by the Liberal party in the 1940s, but that's way before my time.
A lot of the 6m will have voted in 2014. I expect that turnout will be higher than last time, perhaps around 40%, which would be 19m people.
> Mr. 86, I'd also like to see refuelling return (not least because I have fond memories of the F1 Mole pointing out that qualifying performances indicating fuel weights could mean the grid and the final result weren't too similar, leading to some splendid bets in 2009).
>
> But I don't think it's on the agenda. Fuel-saving and cruising around is rubbish.
>
> A better idea would be to scrap the fuel flow restrictions, and let the drivers decide to turn up or down their engines, with limited fuel per race and reliability penalties as now. Would lead to more overtaking, the occasional driver running out of fuel on the last lap having misjudged it, and teams adopting a strategy of deliberately using more engines across a season but running them faster. More variation in other words.
>
> Scrapping fuel flow limits would make every race a hyper-miling festival chasing maximum fuel economy until 5 laps to go when it would become a destruction derby due to massive differences in speed. The fuel flow restriction means that the F/A map can only keep the engine in stoich up to about 3.5 bar of boost. Even they didn't have the FF restriction then there would have to be a boost limit which would be more or less them same thing but implemented in way that's less attractive to the power unit constructors. FFR makes them chase efficiency gains all over the powertrain which makes it easier for them to justify going F1 racing to the briefcase wankers.
Get rid of some of the aero is what's needed (and which might just happen).
Zandvoort should be an absolute hoot for qualifying next year, particularly if they do bank that last corner:
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @williamglenn said: > > A Brexit Party win in the Euors and in the Posh by-election might be enough to confirm to the EU that they're better off without us. > > > > "Us" meaning the Welsh? They'd welcome you with open arms. > > Brexit Chaos is the best chance for Welsh independence. > > The Scots have to leave first. > > Welsh Labour need to be confronted with the idea of being stuck in an abusive marriage with Jacob Rees-Mogg -- I suspect they may then find divorce more attractive.
Wales voted Leave and the Brexit Party are tied with Labour for first in Welsh Euro elections polling with Plaid miles behind and competing with the LDs and Greens for the Remain vote.
Welsh support for Brexit still far higher than Welsh support for leaving the UK
> There really is no helping the Liberals – this is the outfit that chose Vince Cable last time.
>
> Oh dear.
I don't think this is merited given their performance in the locals. They're on something of a resurgence at the moment, with a very clear message that appears to be striking a chord. To that extent, Vince Cable is doing just fine.
The re-emergence of the LibDems really is quite remarkable. I think many of us had assumed they would be out for a generation, like Major's 1992-7 Tories or Callaghan's Labour 1979. But they've bounced back in a handful of years. I guess Brexit has wiped the slates clean? Student fees was bad news, but a nano-scale measure compared to the Brexit disaster for both Conservatives and Labour.
Bollox to Brexit was a complete masterstroke.
Agreed about that. But one swallow does not make a summer.
(I am however considering voting for them in the Euros, so make of that what you will)
> @HYUFD said: > > @Mysticrose said: > > Remain gaining momentum over Leave: 9% ahead now: > > https://twitter.com/Kantar/status/1128258120340447233 > > > > Since when did Remain being 6% lower than they got even in 2016 mean anything? That poll is full of undecideds who mainly went Leave last time
Yes, I liked Discovery season 2. They rowed back from some of the more egregious continuity errors (the Klingons don't look like that! The D7 doesn't look like that! The Enterprise doesn't have trapezoidal pylons at this stage in its history!) and they combined good characterisation with better plots and good casting. I don't know how it'll cope with the time-jump in season 3 but that's probably the best way to go given that it will remove its self-inflicted continuity problems.
Re the posts below, I don't think we can extrapolate May 23rd to a straight Leave v Remain.
That's not just me wanting my cake, it's because the situation is too muddied by parties whose policies both officially and unofficially are muddled (Cons, Lab). And a presumed considerably lower turnout may also produce unusual results. For example, I imagine there will be quite a lot of stay-at-home Tories. Possibly Labour too.
I am completely flabbergasted that the SCons are turning the Euros into yet another referendum on Sturgeon and Indy Ref II. Of course if they get totally pumped I'm assuming that they'll shut up about this for a while*.
I see people are starting to use "Faragist" to give the former UKIP leader a certain fascist feel. Though I am not sure the people use it recognise the linguistic similarity to Falangist, with its close relationship to Francoist Spain and its fascist leanings.
> @Theuniondivvie said: > I am completely flabbergasted that the SCons are turning the Euros into yet another referendum on Sturgeon and Indy Ref II. Of course if they get totally pumped I'm assuming that they'll shut up about this for a while*. > > https://twitter.com/D_Westin/status/1128260498213036033 > > > *Gentle future reader, they did not shut up about it.
The Brexit Party already up to second in Scotland in some Scottish polls and will almost certainly overtake the Scottish Tories for the European elections at least and get at least 1 Scottish MEP
> @viewcode said: > I see people are starting to use "Faragist" to give the former UKIP leader a certain fascist feel. Though I am not sure the people use it recognise the linguistic similarity to Falangist, with its close relationship to Francoist Spain and its fascist leanings. > > The use of the term predates the current period.
he doesn't need a name that is similar to the word fascist to give him a certain fascist feel. He does that perfectly adequately through his utterances.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Mysticrose said: > > Remain gaining momentum over Leave: 9% ahead now: > > https://twitter.com/Kantar/status/1128258120340447233 > > > > OTOH, they only give the Leave parties 39%, compared to 45% with YouGov and 47% with Opinium. > > We'll find out who's right, on May 26th.
Er, no, because May 26th is not a binary referendum. Are you in favour of one, just to be sure? No, thought not.
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @Mysticrose said: > > > Remain gaining momentum over Leave: 9% ahead now: > > > https://twitter.com/Kantar/status/1128258120340447233 > > > > > > > OTOH, they only give the Leave parties 39%, compared to 45% with YouGov and 47% with Opinium. > > > > We'll find out who's right, on May 26th. > > Er, no, because May 26th is not a binary referendum. Are you in favour of one, just to be sure? No, thought not.
The results will give us a steer about public opinion.
> I see people are starting to use "Faragist" to give the former UKIP leader a certain fascist feel. Though I am not sure the people use it recognise the linguistic similarity to Falangist, with its close relationship to Francoist Spain and its fascist leanings.
>
> The use of the term predates the current period.
he doesn't need a name that is similar to the word fascist to give him a certain fascist feel. He does that perfectly adequately through his utterances.
You've mashed together two quotes: one from me, one by somebody else. My bit was "The use of the term predates the current period". I didn't say the other bits.
> @Mysticrose said: > CHUK on 1% ... > > At what point might they CHUCK in the towel? > > Surely if they fail to gain a seat next week and aren't contesting Peterborough, the decision will be out of their hands?
> @HYUFD said: > > @solarflare said: > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128258417733316608 > > Corbyn will see some justification for his Brexit fudge there, on those numbers Labour could scrape a majority despite only matching Kinnock's 1992 voteshare as more Tory voters are defecting to the Brexit Party than Labour voters are defecting to the LDs
Majority of 28 according to Baxter. Been a while since we've seen a poll with an outright Labour majority. Usual caveats obvs.
> @Mysticrose said: > Re the posts below, I don't think we can extrapolate May 23rd to a straight Leave v Remain. > > That's not just me wanting my cake, it's because the situation is too muddied by parties whose policies both officially and unofficially are muddled (Cons, Lab). And a presumed considerably lower turnout may also produce unusual results. For example, I imagine there will be quite a lot of stay-at-home Tories. Possibly Labour too.
Of course we can't see exactly how the country is split on Brexit. For a start it depends very heavily on what the question is?
"Should we Brexit now that we have voted to in a referendum" might be 55/45 yes "Do you prefer Brexit or remain" might be 50/50 "Do you prefer hard Brexit or remain" might be 40/60
The splits in the Tory and Labour voters will be unknown and nuanced, even in the parties with clear views polls show a small number of remainers voting brexit/ukip and there will also be leavers voting green/libdem/nationalists and change.
The country is split close to 50/50, to get an exact answer you would need to ask a clear question and conduct a referendum.
I am not even sure that the exact answer particularly matters when the country is so split, as the answer today might easily not be the same answer as in 3 months time; we need to find solutions that can be acceptable to 60%+ to move on and that requires leadership, listening and persuasion.
Pretty confident that both remain and leave supporters will add up the votes on 23rd May and proclaim their side the "winner" and everyone must follow their view now the people have spoken. The number of votes cast will not change their narratives one iota.
You've mashed together two quotes: one from me, one by somebody else. My bit was "The use of the term predates the current period". I didn't say the other bits.
Vaaaaaniiiiiillllaaaaaa.
As for Farage I caught some of him on PL just now. As was noted on here, much more strident (esp. when his speech was overheard although the interview also was more punchy).
But he undoubtedly has an audience. We voted to leave but we haven't left yet must be one of the simplest messages in British politics ever (evah!).
Just got my postal vote and voted Lib Dem for the second, and hopefully, last time ever. It is of course just a protest vote, but no doubt the Lib Dems will claim they are hugely popular, and their policies are cutting through. The support in a GE will evaporate.
> @Mysticrose said: > Re the posts below, I don't think we can extrapolate May 23rd to a straight Leave v Remain. > > That's not just me wanting my cake, it's because the situation is too muddied by parties whose policies both officially and unofficially are muddled (Cons, Lab). And a presumed considerably lower turnout may also produce unusual results. For example, I imagine there will be quite a lot of stay-at-home Tories. Possibly Labour too.
I agree. However if there is something big to pick up - for example that there is now a clear majority against leaving the EU - we ought to be able to detect it.
If we can't the only respectable conclusion will be to conclude nothing.
Kantar are a strange company, haven't done any European election polling but based on their Westminster numbers you'd assume they would have Lab comfortably winning next week.
With Layla Moran a non-runner it will be Jo Swinson vs Ed Davey in all probability. If I were a bookmaker, I'd be pricing it as 4/7 Swinson 5/4 Davey. It may be a decent team if she makes him Deputy Leader - perhaps Layla will be Party President putting her in the frame to be the leader after next though there's a lot of ifs, buts and maybes about that.
The Kantar poll is another shocker for the Conservatives but conversely not bad for Labour. They are a million miles away from the Sunday Opinium poll so it seems volatility is king (or queen) for now.
Glancing further afield, the centre-left look in a strong position to take control in Denmark on June 5th with the Social Democrats doing better and the Dansk Folkeparti looking set for some poor results. I've had a look at the Estonian poll numbers - they look good for the ALDE parties such as the Estonian Reform Party and the Estonian Centre Party.
> @TOPPING said: > You've mashed together two quotes: one from me, one by somebody else. My bit was "The use of the term predates the current period". I didn't say the other bits. > > Vaaaaaniiiiiillllaaaaaa. > > As for Farage I caught some of him on PL just now. As was noted on here, much more strident (esp. when his speech was overheard although the interview also was more punchy). > > But he undoubtedly has an audience. We voted to leave but we haven't left yet must be one of the simplest messages in British politics ever (evah!).
"We voted to leave but we haven't left yet" True - the ERG should be held responsible.
> @Brom said: > Kantar are a strange company, haven't done any European election polling but based on their Westminster numbers you'd assume they would have Lab comfortably winning next week.
Not having prompted for the Brexit Party will have depressed that party's share and inflated others, presumably Con and Lab mainly.
> @viewcode said: > "Prison for strikers, bring back the cat. Throw out the n*ggers, how about that?" as Philip Larkin said. > > Great poet, shame about his politics. > > Clive James once mounted a rather robust defence of Philip Larkin based on his observation that Larkin's other writings offered evidence against Larkins's racist ones. It might not pass muster in today's court of public opinion, but you could see James's reasoning.
He'd have to go some to beat TS Eliot - and Eliot meant it. From Burbank with a Baedeker: Bleistein with a Cigar:-
But this or such was Bleistein's way: A saggy bending of the knees And elbows, with the palms turned out, Chicago Semite Viennese.
A lustreless protrusive eye Stares from the protozoic slime At a perspective of Canaletto. The smoky candle end of time
Declines. On the Rialto once. The rats are underneath the piles. The jew is underneath the lot. Money in furs. The boatman smiles,
If Moran thinks she will be a shoo-in for leader after Swinson she is playing a risky game. Who knows who will get elected for the LDs at the next GE - she could be eclipsed by some bright young thing, and spend the rest of her career wishing she had stood in 2019.
To be fair, at 43% Khan is still in a very good position. However, and it's a huge however, IF Sian Berry gets into second place above the Conservatives and Lib Dems, the question then becomes what of the second preferences. It's perfectly possible Berry could pick up a lot of second preferences but whether it would be enough if she was trailing say 45-25 is debatable.
Would a Conservative voter put Green as a second preference to try to beat Labour? Perhaps.
> @brokenwheel said: > OT hacking American votes > > Wouldn’t make much difference since we use paper and the Russians still hacked the referendum apparently.
The Russians did not hack the referendum; you are mixing them up with MI5 rubbing out pencilled Xs during the general election. Russian trolls, human and automated, were and are active on social media and probably influenced the result. It may be noted that there is no great clamour to investigate Russian activity here, presumably because our parties want to use and do use similar techniques.
It should be noted in passing that Plato (RIP) of this parish managed to get herself banned from Twitter for acting as a Russian troll.
> @stodge said: > https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1128257815276138497 > > > > > To be fair, at 43% Khan is still in a very good position. However, and it's a huge however, IF Sian Berry gets into second place above the Conservatives and Lib Dems, the question then becomes what of the second preferences. It's perfectly possible Berry could pick up a lot of second preferences but whether it would be enough if she was trailing say 45-25 is debatable. > > Would a Conservative voter put Green as a second preference to try to beat Labour? Perhaps.
No, if it was me, I'd rather have Khan. On a national level, I see little difference between Corbyn and Lucas (who I know is the Green leader in theory but might as well be in practice).
In any case, SV means that there'd be a lot of wasted votes, whether deliberately or otherwise, so Khan's lead would be protected and, on 45%, probably far enough ahead to win even without any transfers.
(By 'wasted on purpose', I mean people who either choose not to give a second preference, or who vote for a candidate they expect not to make a second round but where they feel that expressing support for that candidate is more important than influencing the result of the run-off).
> @SandyRentool said: > If Moran thinks she will be a shoo-in for leader after Swinson she is playing a risky game. Who knows who will get elected for the LDs at the next GE - she could be eclipsed by some bright young thing, and spend the rest of her career wishing she had stood in 2019.
maybe she just doesn't want to be leader at all? I think she would have made a better choice for them than Swinson .
> @david_herdson said: > > @Brom said: > > Kantar are a strange company, haven't done any European election polling but based on their Westminster numbers you'd assume they would have Lab comfortably winning next week. > > Not having prompted for the Brexit Party will have depressed that party's share and inflated others, presumably Con and Lab mainly.
Ah, didnt realise they hadn't prompted. Makes very little sense not to.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > OT hacking American votes > > > > Wouldn’t make much difference since we use paper and the Russians still hacked the referendum apparently. > > The Russians did not hack the referendum; you are mixing them up with MI5 rubbing out pencilled Xs during the general election. Russian trolls, human and automated, were and are active on social media and probably influenced the result. It may be noted that there is no great clamour to investigate Russian activity here, presumably because our parties want to use and do use similar techniques. > > It should be noted in passing that Plato (RIP) of this parish managed to get herself banned from Twitter for acting as a Russian troll.
I didn't know that about Plato, but it doesn't surprise me. I suspected as much, if only from the sheer inanity of some of her posts.
She did, I recall, once win the coveted Poster Of The Year title. Doesn't say much for the judgement of some of her readers. Personally I found her a PIA, because she was a problem for anybody with a serious interest in betting on politics. She was a rumour-monger, but you had to check the rumours just in case. What a waste of time.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Blue_rog said: > > I wonder if the EU are completing their preparations for a no deal Brexit and looking over the channel in amazement at the complacency of the British Politicians. > > > > I wouldn't be surprised if, come October, they say - "you've had your grace period, now leave!" > > As with many things Brexit this comes back to Ireland. There's only so much that they can do to prepare to protect Ireland. If the EU push the UK out it will entail pushing Ireland under the bus. I don't think they will do that. > > There is a lot said about the dishonesty of politicians (Leave and Remain), or the unreasonableness of EU negotiators, but ultimately Brexit circles round, time and again, to Ireland. > > 1. We voted to Leave to take back control. > 2. For the sake of peace in Ireland we can't impose a border between NI and the Republic, or between NI and GB. > 3. So we have to remain bound by the rules of the Single Market and Customs Union to a substantial extent. > 4. But as we won't be a member of the EU, we would have no say in those rules. > 5. So looks like leaving would involve giving away control. > 6. Maybe we should remain after all. > > Now I reckon that there is a Brexit somewhere in the middle where we lose control on some things - like setting the rules of the Single Market - but we gain control over some others - like Immigration, Fisheries and Agriculture. Norway is relatively happy with a broadly similar trade-off. I'd rather stay in, but I could see some people willing to exchange control over some things in return for more control over others. > > No-one told Leavers during the referendum campaign, or since, that they might have to compromise and prioritise. Britain's history means that we have lots of entanglements with other countries. We can't just walk away from them and pretend that they don't exist. We would cease to be a country to be taken seriously.
"We can't just walk away from them and pretend that they don't exist."
No, if it was me, I'd rather have Khan. On a national level, I see little difference between Corbyn and Lucas (who I know is the Green leader in theory but might as well be in practice).
In any case, SV means that there'd be a lot of wasted votes, whether deliberately or otherwise, so Khan's lead would be protected and, on 45%, probably far enough ahead to win even without any transfers.
(By 'wasted on purpose', I mean people who either choose not to give a second preference, or who vote for a candidate they expect not to make a second round but where they feel that expressing support for that candidate is more important than influencing the result of the run-off).
Yes, I was being slightly provocative. That said, if Siobhan Benita was a clear second for example, I could imagine some Conservatives voting tactically for her as a second preference to beat Labour but as you say the gap between the front two has to be fairly small for the second preferences to have an impact.
Khan looks in a very strong position against a divided field and is clearly able to pick up some voters who won't vote Labour under the current leadership.
> @SandyRentool said: > If Moran thinks she will be a shoo-in for leader after Swinson she is playing a risky game. Who knows who will get elected for the LDs at the next GE - she could be eclipsed by some bright young thing, and spend the rest of her career wishing she had stood in 2019.
I agree - but that doesn't make it a bad strategy. She's easily the second most talked about Lib Dem MP (after Swinson and just ahead of Cable!).
I see the LDs have allowed Steel back in to the Part, noting : "The party ruled there were "no grounds for action" against Lord Steel as Smith "did not confess to any criminality"."
Is that really the standard? Does he have no shame?
> @SandyRentool said: > If Moran thinks she will be a shoo-in for leader after Swinson she is playing a risky game. Who knows who will get elected for the LDs at the next GE - she could be eclipsed by some bright young thing, and spend the rest of her career wishing she had stood in 2019.
It's very rare for any candidate seen as 'next leader' at the time of election of their supposed predecessor to actually fulfil that destiny. Brown is the only post-war clear example I can think of. Beyond that: Wilson, Steel, Kennedy perhaps? But that's speculative and even if they're included, it's a short list.
Comments
> I see people are starting to use "Faragist" to give the former UKIP leader a certain fascist feel. Though I am not sure the people use it recognise the linguistic similarity to Falangist, with its close relationship to Francoist Spain and its fascist leanings.
Pretty sure a few people recognise the association, I wouldn't say its the biggest leap to make.
'X denounced capitalism for being an individualist economy at the hands of the bourgeoisie that turned workers "into a dehumanized cog in the machinery of bourgeois production" while state socialist economies enslaved the individual by handing control of production to the state.'
Of course Falangism was (much as I deplore it) a reasonably developed political philosophy, Faragism, not so much.
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > @Blue_rog said:
> > > I wonder if the EU are completing their preparations for a no deal Brexit and looking over the channel in amazement at the complacency of the British Politicians.
> > >
> > > I wouldn't be surprised if, come October, they say - "you've had your grace period, now leave!"
> >
> > When you can't decide yourself, other eventually make your decision for you.
> >
> > A Brexit Party win in the Euors and in the Posh by-election might be enough to confirm to the EU that they're better off without us.
> _________________________________________________________________
> It's the percentage vote that counts. If the 6M would get out and vote, that's 50% of the 2014 turnout, even before the less enthustiastic voters appear.
>
> Now that the shock of 2016 has apparently given the UK its first ever pro-EU movement, * they know what to do on 23 May. Some may of course vote Tory or Labour and deny CUK/Green/LD/PC/SNP a vote.
>
> On 23 March in London, there were large Momentum for EU and Tories for EU banners. I can't remember ever seeing the right and left supporting the same cause before. Maybe those people are tribally loyal?
>
> * I think there was a European federalist movement led by the Liberal party in the 1940s, but that's way before my time.
A lot of the 6m will have voted in 2014. I expect that turnout will be higher than last time, perhaps around 40%, which would be 19m people.
Latest Martin Brundle long read
rantarticle for Sky:https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/24096/11719448/martin-brundle-on-spanish-gp-frustrations-and-f1-future-visions
At what point might they CHUCK in the towel?
Surely if they fail to gain a seat next week and aren't contesting Peterborough, the decision will be out of their hands?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > A Brexit Party win in the Euors and in the Posh by-election might be enough to confirm to the EU that they're better off without us.
> >
> > "Us" meaning the Welsh? They'd welcome you with open arms.
>
> Brexit Chaos is the best chance for Welsh independence.
>
> The Scots have to leave first.
>
> Welsh Labour need to be confronted with the idea of being stuck in an abusive marriage with Jacob Rees-Mogg -- I suspect they may then find divorce more attractive.
Wales voted Leave and the Brexit Party are tied with Labour for first in Welsh Euro elections polling with Plaid miles behind and competing with the LDs and Greens for the Remain vote.
Welsh support for Brexit still far higher than Welsh support for leaving the UK
(I am however considering voting for them in the Euros, so make of that what you will)
> Remain gaining momentum over Leave: 9% ahead now:
> https://twitter.com/Kantar/status/1128258120340447233
>
OTOH, they only give the Leave parties 39%, compared to 45% with YouGov and 47% with Opinium.
We'll find out who's right, on May 26th.
> Remain gaining momentum over Leave: 9% ahead now:
> https://twitter.com/Kantar/status/1128258120340447233
>
Since when did Remain being 6% lower than they got even in 2016 mean anything? That poll is full of undecideds who mainly went Leave last time
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > Remain gaining momentum over Leave: 9% ahead now:
> > https://twitter.com/Kantar/status/1128258120340447233
> >
>
> Since when did Remain being 6% lower than they got even in 2016 mean anything? That poll is full of undecideds who mainly went Leave last time
That's an Argumentum ex Silentio
Yes, I liked Discovery season 2. They rowed back from some of the more egregious continuity errors (the Klingons don't look like that! The D7 doesn't look like that! The Enterprise doesn't have trapezoidal pylons at this stage in its history!) and they combined good characterisation with better plots and good casting. I don't know how it'll cope with the time-jump in season 3 but that's probably the best way to go given that it will remove its self-inflicted continuity problems.
That's not just me wanting my cake, it's because the situation is too muddied by parties whose policies both officially and unofficially are muddled (Cons, Lab). And a presumed considerably lower turnout may also produce unusual results. For example, I imagine there will be quite a lot of stay-at-home Tories. Possibly Labour too.
https://twitter.com/D_Westin/status/1128260498213036033
*Gentle future reader, they did not shut up about it.
> I am completely flabbergasted that the SCons are turning the Euros into yet another referendum on Sturgeon and Indy Ref II. Of course if they get totally pumped I'm assuming that they'll shut up about this for a while*.
>
> https://twitter.com/D_Westin/status/1128260498213036033
>
>
> *Gentle future reader, they did not shut up about it.
The Brexit Party already up to second in Scotland in some Scottish polls and will almost certainly overtake the Scottish Tories for the European elections at least and get at least 1 Scottish MEP
https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1128258148299620352
https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1128264353587834880
> I see people are starting to use "Faragist" to give the former UKIP leader a certain fascist feel. Though I am not sure the people use it recognise the linguistic similarity to Falangist, with its close relationship to Francoist Spain and its fascist leanings.
>
> The use of the term predates the current period.
he doesn't need a name that is similar to the word fascist to give him a certain fascist feel. He does that perfectly adequately through his utterances.
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > Remain gaining momentum over Leave: 9% ahead now:
> > https://twitter.com/Kantar/status/1128258120340447233
> >
>
> OTOH, they only give the Leave parties 39%, compared to 45% with YouGov and 47% with Opinium.
>
> We'll find out who's right, on May 26th.
Er, no, because May 26th is not a binary referendum. Are you in favour of one, just to be sure? No, thought not.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @Mysticrose said:
> > > Remain gaining momentum over Leave: 9% ahead now:
> > > https://twitter.com/Kantar/status/1128258120340447233
> > >
> >
> > OTOH, they only give the Leave parties 39%, compared to 45% with YouGov and 47% with Opinium.
> >
> > We'll find out who's right, on May 26th.
>
> Er, no, because May 26th is not a binary referendum. Are you in favour of one, just to be sure? No, thought not.
The results will give us a steer about public opinion.
> CHUK on 1% ...
>
> At what point might they CHUCK in the towel?
>
> Surely if they fail to gain a seat next week and aren't contesting Peterborough, the decision will be out of their hands?
But they've only just hired their bus!
(Which you can fit all their voters inside.)
> > @solarflare said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128258417733316608
>
> Corbyn will see some justification for his Brexit fudge there, on those numbers Labour could scrape a majority despite only matching Kinnock's 1992 voteshare as more Tory voters are defecting to the Brexit Party than Labour voters are defecting to the LDs
Majority of 28 according to Baxter. Been a while since we've seen a poll with an outright Labour majority. Usual caveats obvs.
> Re the posts below, I don't think we can extrapolate May 23rd to a straight Leave v Remain.
>
> That's not just me wanting my cake, it's because the situation is too muddied by parties whose policies both officially and unofficially are muddled (Cons, Lab). And a presumed considerably lower turnout may also produce unusual results. For example, I imagine there will be quite a lot of stay-at-home Tories. Possibly Labour too.
Of course we can't see exactly how the country is split on Brexit. For a start it depends very heavily on what the question is?
"Should we Brexit now that we have voted to in a referendum" might be 55/45 yes
"Do you prefer Brexit or remain" might be 50/50
"Do you prefer hard Brexit or remain" might be 40/60
The splits in the Tory and Labour voters will be unknown and nuanced, even in the parties with clear views polls show a small number of remainers voting brexit/ukip and there will also be leavers voting green/libdem/nationalists and change.
The country is split close to 50/50, to get an exact answer you would need to ask a clear question and conduct a referendum.
I am not even sure that the exact answer particularly matters when the country is so split, as the answer today might easily not be the same answer as in 3 months time; we need to find solutions that can be acceptable to 60%+ to move on and that requires leadership, listening and persuasion.
Pretty confident that both remain and leave supporters will add up the votes on 23rd May and proclaim their side the "winner" and everyone must follow their view now the people have spoken. The number of votes cast will not change their narratives one iota.
As for Farage I caught some of him on PL just now. As was noted on here, much more strident (esp. when his speech was overheard although the interview also was more punchy).
But he undoubtedly has an audience. We voted to leave but we haven't left yet must be one of the simplest messages in British politics ever (evah!).
It is of course just a protest vote, but no doubt the Lib Dems will claim they are hugely popular, and their policies are cutting through. The support in a GE will evaporate.
> Re the posts below, I don't think we can extrapolate May 23rd to a straight Leave v Remain.
>
> That's not just me wanting my cake, it's because the situation is too muddied by parties whose policies both officially and unofficially are muddled (Cons, Lab). And a presumed considerably lower turnout may also produce unusual results. For example, I imagine there will be quite a lot of stay-at-home Tories. Possibly Labour too.
I agree. However if there is something big to pick up - for example that there is now a clear majority against leaving the EU - we ought to be able to detect it.
If we can't the only respectable conclusion will be to conclude nothing.
https://twitter.com/Mickeefl/status/1126565290756706304
With Layla Moran a non-runner it will be Jo Swinson vs Ed Davey in all probability. If I were a bookmaker, I'd be pricing it as 4/7 Swinson 5/4 Davey. It may be a decent team if she makes him Deputy Leader - perhaps Layla will be Party President putting her in the frame to be the leader after next though there's a lot of ifs, buts and maybes about that.
The Kantar poll is another shocker for the Conservatives but conversely not bad for Labour. They are a million miles away from the Sunday Opinium poll so it seems volatility is king (or queen) for now.
Glancing further afield, the centre-left look in a strong position to take control in Denmark on June 5th with the Social Democrats doing better and the Dansk Folkeparti looking set for some poor results. I've had a look at the Estonian poll numbers - they look good for the ALDE parties such as the Estonian Reform Party and the Estonian Centre Party.
> You've mashed together two quotes: one from me, one by somebody else. My bit was "The use of the term predates the current period". I didn't say the other bits.
>
> Vaaaaaniiiiiillllaaaaaa.
>
> As for Farage I caught some of him on PL just now. As was noted on here, much more strident (esp. when his speech was overheard although the interview also was more punchy).
>
> But he undoubtedly has an audience. We voted to leave but we haven't left yet must be one of the simplest messages in British politics ever (evah!).
"We voted to leave but we haven't left yet"
True - the ERG should be held responsible.
> Kantar are a strange company, haven't done any European election polling but based on their Westminster numbers you'd assume they would have Lab comfortably winning next week.
Not having prompted for the Brexit Party will have depressed that party's share and inflated others, presumably Con and Lab mainly.
> "Prison for strikers, bring back the cat. Throw out the n*ggers, how about that?" as Philip Larkin said.
>
> Great poet, shame about his politics.
>
> Clive James once mounted a rather robust defence of Philip Larkin based on his observation that Larkin's other writings offered evidence against Larkins's racist ones. It might not pass muster in today's court of public opinion, but you could see James's reasoning.
He'd have to go some to beat TS Eliot - and Eliot meant it. From Burbank with a Baedeker: Bleistein with a Cigar:-
But this or such was Bleistein's way:
A saggy bending of the knees
And elbows, with the palms turned out,
Chicago Semite Viennese.
A lustreless protrusive eye
Stares from the protozoic slime
At a perspective of Canaletto.
The smoky candle end of time
Declines. On the Rialto once.
The rats are underneath the piles.
The jew is underneath the lot.
Money in furs. The boatman smiles,
Would a Conservative voter put Green as a second preference to try to beat Labour? Perhaps.
> OT hacking American votes
>
> Wouldn’t make much difference since we use paper and the Russians still hacked the referendum apparently.
The Russians did not hack the referendum; you are mixing them up with MI5 rubbing out pencilled Xs during the general election. Russian trolls, human and automated, were and are active on social media and probably influenced the result. It may be noted that there is no great clamour to investigate Russian activity here, presumably because our parties want to use and do use similar techniques.
It should be noted in passing that Plato (RIP) of this parish managed to get herself banned from Twitter for acting as a Russian troll.
> https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1128257815276138497
>
>
>
>
> To be fair, at 43% Khan is still in a very good position. However, and it's a huge however, IF Sian Berry gets into second place above the Conservatives and Lib Dems, the question then becomes what of the second preferences. It's perfectly possible Berry could pick up a lot of second preferences but whether it would be enough if she was trailing say 45-25 is debatable.
>
> Would a Conservative voter put Green as a second preference to try to beat Labour? Perhaps.
No, if it was me, I'd rather have Khan. On a national level, I see little difference between Corbyn and Lucas (who I know is the Green leader in theory but might as well be in practice).
In any case, SV means that there'd be a lot of wasted votes, whether deliberately or otherwise, so Khan's lead would be protected and, on 45%, probably far enough ahead to win even without any transfers.
(By 'wasted on purpose', I mean people who either choose not to give a second preference, or who vote for a candidate they expect not to make a second round but where they feel that expressing support for that candidate is more important than influencing the result of the run-off).
> If Moran thinks she will be a shoo-in for leader after Swinson she is playing a risky game. Who knows who will get elected for the LDs at the next GE - she could be eclipsed by some bright young thing, and spend the rest of her career wishing she had stood in 2019.
maybe she just doesn't want to be leader at all? I think she would have made a better choice for them than Swinson .
> > @Brom said:
> > Kantar are a strange company, haven't done any European election polling but based on their Westminster numbers you'd assume they would have Lab comfortably winning next week.
>
> Not having prompted for the Brexit Party will have depressed that party's share and inflated others, presumably Con and Lab mainly.
Ah, didnt realise they hadn't prompted. Makes very little sense not to.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > OT hacking American votes
> >
> > Wouldn’t make much difference since we use paper and the Russians still hacked the referendum apparently.
>
> The Russians did not hack the referendum; you are mixing them up with MI5 rubbing out pencilled Xs during the general election. Russian trolls, human and automated, were and are active on social media and probably influenced the result. It may be noted that there is no great clamour to investigate Russian activity here, presumably because our parties want to use and do use similar techniques.
>
> It should be noted in passing that Plato (RIP) of this parish managed to get herself banned from Twitter for acting as a Russian troll.
I didn't know that about Plato, but it doesn't surprise me. I suspected as much, if only from the sheer inanity of some of her posts.
She did, I recall, once win the coveted Poster Of The Year title. Doesn't say much for the judgement of some of her readers. Personally I found her a PIA, because she was a problem for anybody with a serious interest in betting on politics. She was a rumour-monger, but you had to check the rumours just in case. What a waste of time.
> > @Blue_rog said:
> > I wonder if the EU are completing their preparations for a no deal Brexit and looking over the channel in amazement at the complacency of the British Politicians.
> >
> > I wouldn't be surprised if, come October, they say - "you've had your grace period, now leave!"
>
> As with many things Brexit this comes back to Ireland. There's only so much that they can do to prepare to protect Ireland. If the EU push the UK out it will entail pushing Ireland under the bus. I don't think they will do that.
>
> There is a lot said about the dishonesty of politicians (Leave and Remain), or the unreasonableness of EU negotiators, but ultimately Brexit circles round, time and again, to Ireland.
>
> 1. We voted to Leave to take back control.
> 2. For the sake of peace in Ireland we can't impose a border between NI and the Republic, or between NI and GB.
> 3. So we have to remain bound by the rules of the Single Market and Customs Union to a substantial extent.
> 4. But as we won't be a member of the EU, we would have no say in those rules.
> 5. So looks like leaving would involve giving away control.
> 6. Maybe we should remain after all.
>
> Now I reckon that there is a Brexit somewhere in the middle where we lose control on some things - like setting the rules of the Single Market - but we gain control over some others - like Immigration, Fisheries and Agriculture. Norway is relatively happy with a broadly similar trade-off. I'd rather stay in, but I could see some people willing to exchange control over some things in return for more control over others.
>
> No-one told Leavers during the referendum campaign, or since, that they might have to compromise and prioritise. Britain's history means that we have lots of entanglements with other countries. We can't just walk away from them and pretend that they don't exist. We would cease to be a country to be taken seriously.
"We can't just walk away from them and pretend that they don't exist."
You've just summed up the Brexit Party's policy.
Khan looks in a very strong position against a divided field and is clearly able to pick up some voters who won't vote Labour under the current leadership.
> If Moran thinks she will be a shoo-in for leader after Swinson she is playing a risky game. Who knows who will get elected for the LDs at the next GE - she could be eclipsed by some bright young thing, and spend the rest of her career wishing she had stood in 2019.
I agree - but that doesn't make it a bad strategy. She's easily the second most talked about Lib Dem MP (after Swinson and just ahead of Cable!).
:
"The party ruled there were "no grounds for action" against Lord Steel as Smith "did not confess to any criminality"."
Is that really the standard? Does he have no shame?
> If Moran thinks she will be a shoo-in for leader after Swinson she is playing a risky game. Who knows who will get elected for the LDs at the next GE - she could be eclipsed by some bright young thing, and spend the rest of her career wishing she had stood in 2019.
It's very rare for any candidate seen as 'next leader' at the time of election of their supposed predecessor to actually fulfil that destiny. Brown is the only post-war clear example I can think of. Beyond that: Wilson, Steel, Kennedy perhaps? But that's speculative and even if they're included, it's a short list.
> OT hacking American votes
> https://twitter.com/Mickeefl/status/1126565290756706304
Electronic voting machines are madness in a democracy.