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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking to the coming LD leadership contest and the potential relationship with CHUK
With the local elections just gone, and the European Elections next week, we are starting to see a ‘paradigm shift’ in our political landscape. The Conservatives, are deeply fratricidal, on who should lead them after the inevitability of Theresa’s May departure, and what version of Conservatism, they should follow. Labour are similarly divided, although the chasm is between the Leadership on the one side, and the PLP and Members, on the other side, as well as the ‘Leave’ North and ‘Remain’ South, regarding Jeremy Corbyn’s approach towards Brexit. Not withstanding this, we only know that one main party leadership election, is going to take place currently this year, and that is for the leadership of the Liberal Democrats.
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A LD activist I know has been canvassing in a ward gained by the Greens from LAB on May 2nd and found Green supporters broadly amenable to the strongest anti-Brexit party pitch.
> I don't buy the idea that LibDem members will be reluctant to pick someone inexperienced in case they end up being kingmakers or something. I think they'll want a strong media performer with a bit of energy and audacity. Accordingly, Layla Moran looks like excellent value.
The following Liberal and Lib Dem leaders had no ministerial experience:
Charles Kennedy
Paddy Ashdown
David Steel
Jo Grimond
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/05/14/whatsapp_zero_day/
Oh yes, and patch WhatsApp if you use it to talk to your family.
The arguments in the article put forward for Swinson are unconvincing. I'll be voting for Moran if she stands.
> I think they have to go for Moran, she's more interesting and more likely to get the attention that smaller parties like the Lib Dems vitally need. Swinson would be fine as leader but it wouldn't turn many heads really.
The European elections might do that anyway, whoever is leader. The LibDems' problem has been that it is no longer Britain's third or even fourth party, so broadcasters need not consider the party as part of their duty to provide balance.
That has nothing to do with Vince Cable being old or dull, even if a "chat show Charlie" type leader might have been able to exploit other outlets.
But a strong showing in a week or so might change the arithmetic. Trouble is, even if so, a tie-up with Chuk might mean the TIGgers eclipse the LibDems on telly and it is back to square one.
Incidentally both the CHUK MEPs at present sit with the EPP, not ALDE like the LDs.
I too will most likely for Moran, who has a fresh natural media style, though she will need experienced support.
And an interesting contribution on the previous thread from another rate poster, which has the bones of a Dehondt thread to keep us going while awaiting TSEs AV magnum opus:
> @ah009 said:
> Inspired by some earlier posts, I did a Monte Carlo simulation of the SE region given the national Europe polling figures, to try to work out the boundaries for gaining an extra seat. I'm in a bit of a tired fug to be honest, so I won't swear by these figures, but after 100,000 iterations, a clear pattern is apparent.
>
> In a ten-seat region like this, the boundaries are approx:
> 0% = 0 seats
> 7.4% = 1 seat
> 14.9% = 2 seats
> 22.2% = 3 seats
> 29.2% = 4 seats
> 36.9% = 5 seats
>
> I've no doubt these figures would look very different if the field size was different. Half the seats on 37% is a good indicator that those who say that this system is as close to FPTP as it is to "proper" PR have a point.
>
> It has also brought to my attention the notion (perhaps this was obvious to others) that the smaller parties like the Greens and the Conservatives can really affect how many seats the larger parties like Labour can get. Without even changing the larger party percentages, if you had CON 12% UKP 6%, that's one seat between them. But if you have CON 9% UKP 9%, that's two seats. That seat is most likely to be plucked from BP or LAB. The uncertainty increases with vote share, so BP votes could end up being worth less than Ukip ones, and Labour worth less than Green or Lib Dem.
>
> If I were a CON voter thinking of defecting to BP for Brexit reasons, this analysis tells me I might be better off going Ukip instead.
>
> But I'm not, so others can decide that for themselves. And, of course, I'm using British/UK polling figures, not South East ones. So caveat lector.
That said I think Moran will be lucky to come unscathed through a leadership election given her - ahem - interesting domestic life. So I agree Swinson is the most likely winner if she stands.
>
> And an interesting contribution on the previous thread from another rate poster, which has the bones of a Dehondt thread to keep us going while awaiting TSEs AV magnum opus:
>
> > @ah009 said:
> > Inspired by some earlier posts, I did a Monte Carlo simulation of the SE region given the national Europe polling figures, to try to work out the boundaries for gaining an extra seat. I'm in a bit of a tired fug to be honest, so I won't swear by these figures, but after 100,000 iterations, a clear pattern is apparent.
> >
Loved the line (snipped) that: "smaller parties like the Greens and the Conservatives can really affect how many seats the larger parties like Labour can get".
Some pro-Leave Tories might find useful the suggestion that a vote for Ukip is worth more than one for Brexit, and likewise the Greens on the other side.
It’s Moran’s to lose. She’s a streetfighter and Lib Dem members love streetfighters. She is also the most visibly anti-Brexit, which is the reason most newer members have joined.
CUK are rapidly becoming an irrelevance nationally and therefore an irrelevance to the LD leadership contest. Plus it takes two to tango, and it’s become very clear that Umunna and Shuker are so convinced of their own brilliance they wouldn’t countenance talks with the Lib Dems in any event.
Is Corbyn's reign about to come to as unsatisfactory an end as GoT?
Won't be holding my breath...
Edit - if even Russell-Moyle has turned on him it surely is all up. All parties to have new leaders by October?
It’s worth noting that the Lib Dems offer one other thing to potential new recruits: a mass membership that is enthused. With their sudden rerelevance, a virtuous circle could be in the offing. But only if the Lib Dems work out a way to make friends not war.
> Incidentally both the CHUK MEPs at present sit with the EPP, not ALDE like the LDs.
I thought that one of the sitting MEPs who had been chalked down as a defector to CHUK had recently disavowed them.
> Unreadable and unconvincing. Sorry.
>
> It’s Moran’s to lose. She’s a streetfighter and Lib Dem members love streetfighters. She is also the most visibly anti-Brexit, which is the reason most newer members have joined.
>
> CUK are rapidly becoming an irrelevance nationally and therefore an irrelevance to the LD leadership contest. Plus it takes two to tango, and it’s become very clear that Umunna and Shuker are so convinced of their own brilliance they wouldn’t countenance talks with the Lib Dems in any event.
Agree with much of this, especially the last paragraph, and even more the last sentence. Heidi Allen ought to try and do a deal with her local LD's but otherwise.....
Soubry might be able to slink back to the Tories, with a large helping of humble pie, but I don't see a political future for Umunna and Shuker. At least a couple of the SDP'ers, because of the Alliance, found themselves in the Lords after their ejection from the Commons, but that option won't be open to the rest of the CUK.
And be epically awful.
> It’s Moran’s to lose. She’s a streetfighter
>
> Whoops.
yes, perhaps not the best descriptor!
Though this seems to be an issue more for LD opponents rather than members.
The LibDems are in the unfortunate position of not having an obviously strong contender for the position (tbf an affliction of all the parties right now). Davey and Swinson are heavily tainted by the coalition, and neither comes across particularly well on television, both being overearnest and Davey being somewhat uninspiring. My hope remains that Moran can grow into the job, but having seen more of her on various media recently I fear she has a bigger learning curve still ahead of her than I had hoped.
The result is that the CUKs are now a virtual party. They exist digitally but have no roots, membership, Councillors, MEPs (and they won't after the Euros either) or prospects of holding any of the seats they currently have without grass root support.
It seems to me, with great respect to @The Golden Aspie, that Swinson's activities to date misjudge this. Basically if any of the CUKs wish to be in the next Parliament they need to apply to join the Lib Dems and get adopted as a Lib Dem candidate. And they can't leave it too long. Who knows when this most shambolic and incompetent of Parliaments will breath its last?
A Lib Dem party that has reinvigorated its base with over 700 new Councillors and which has found its voice really doesn't need to offer terms.
Betting PostF1: Backed Leclerc to win in Monaco at 19 each way (fifth the odds top 3).
He looked very good at Azerbaijan, and the most similar circuit, enormo-straight aside, is Monaco. In the last couple of seasons, Ferrari have been better than Mercedes at Monaco. If Red Bull is faster then Gasly's lacklustre performance means Verstappen will likely win but the each way aspect should still come good.
Considered Verstappen at 5.75 (prices are with boost, on Ladbrokes). Might just go for a straight podium bet when more markets are up.
I also sprayed some pennies about on the following long shots:
Ricciardo, each way 901
Sainz, each way 1751
Perez, each way 1751
Sainz has had at least one best of the rest finishes, and Perez got on the podium one year. Ricciardo's obviously harder to read a he previously drove for a top team but he's good on street circuits. As I said, only tiny stakes on this.
The three pointed ones.
> Relations with CHUK and Green parties will just be one of many considerations of the fallout from Brexit for a new leader to deal with. Personally, I would see this working in a way similar to the Oxford shore Locals, with some seats being uncontested by the others, rather than a formal electoral alliance
>
> Incidentally both the CHUK MEPs at present sit with the EPP, not ALDE like the LDs.
>
> I too will most likely for Moran, who has a fresh natural media style, though she will need experienced support.
Only because they are both Tory defectors. CUK has been clear they haven’t decided which group their MEPs will sit in; that’s if they get any, of course.
> F1: contemplating on the mystic nature of the universe and browsing the Monaco winner market. Currently each way is a fifth the odds for top 3.
>
> Can you see a winner through the Merc yet?
>
> The future is clearly written in the stars.
>
> The three pointed ones.
I agree. At the last procession the Mercs were fastest in the twisty parts of the circuit. Ferrari have to focus on Red Bull, the Mercs are out of sight.
The only place they are quick at the moment is in a straight line, something not in plentiful supply at Monaco.
> Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.
>
> And be epically awful.
As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.
(No, I do not think Morgan's moment of idiocy is directly comparable, but it does suggest impulsiveness and poor judgement.)
Considering that pluralism is supposed to be a significant strand of both parties’ politics, it would be absurd not to reach an accommodation.
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.
> >
> > And be epically awful.
>
> As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.
Moran will make May look like a political titan in comparison.....
The bet, of course, may not come off, but a couple of long shots on Bottas and Leclerc have proven good in the first quarter of this season.
It's also possible Red Bull will be the fastest car this weekend. Verstappen's podium odds are something I'll keep an eye on.
Have a good morning.
> yes, perhaps not the best descriptor!
> Though this seems to be an issue more for LD opponents rather than members.
>
> In the same way Corbyn's long career of apologias for racism and murder seem for some reason not to be of interest to his defenders?
>
> (No, I do not think Morgan's moment of idiocy is directly comparable, but it does suggest impulsiveness and poor judgement.)
It more suggests, as the Glasgow police decided, that she felt under threat and acted in self defence, so no further action required. I don't see any reason to contest the police decision.
Layla has a freshness bordering on naivety at times, but she is not going to be PM any time soon so doesn't need to be a political heavyweight just yet.
> Thanks for the article Golden Aspie. The Lib Dems and the TIGgers don’t have time to fight each other so they need to reach an accommodation fairly quickly. Both sides are idiotic if they think they should be avoidably opening a new front when they already have two unavoidable fronts in the main parties. As OGH says, the main question is the balance of power between the two sides and the upcoming elections should help the Lib Dems there. The opportunity to double the personnel in Parliament (with the prospect of more if further possible defectors are staying in touch with former colleagues) is a substantial prize and worth quite a bit of flexibility.
>
> It’s worth noting that the Lib Dems offer one other thing to potential new recruits: a mass membership that is enthused. With their sudden rerelevance, a virtuous circle could be in the offing. But only if the Lib Dems work out a way to make friends not war.
Sensible points. But the dynamic isn’t right now; it reminds me of the SDP in the pre-83 period, before that year’s GE forced some harsh lessons in the SDP’s direction. They (and any alliance) are hampered by some of their members obviously not being liberals and indeed some of the Labour ones still very hostile toward their old rivals.
The CUK individuals seems to have brought a lot more baggage with them and found it more difficult to project a fresh new image than did the SDP nearly forty years ago.
Perhaps there’ll be greater realism after the Euros, particularly if some of their MPs know they are now going to retire. But I think they will still hold out for a big wedge of new defectors from either Tory or Labour remainers should Brexit sink one of the larger parties. Both sides of CUK know how unhappy many of their former colleagues are.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.
> > >
> > > And be epically awful.
> >
> > As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.
>
> Moran will make May look like a political titan in comparison.....
Quite likely that the opposite is true. Mays Conservatives are likely to poll below the LDs in next weeks national election. It must be over a Century since that last happened.
I didn't understand the reference to 'streetfighter' until I checked Wiki. Very droll. But it could be endless fun. She's turning the party in a new direction - The 'Jeremy Kyle faction'.
She'll give as much as she gets. No backhanders from that lady.
That’s quite some achievement.
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1128177873649655808
>
>
>
> Is Corbyn's reign about to come to as unsatisfactory an end as GoT?
>
> He's surrounded by many cockups?
>
> Edit - if even Russell-Moyle has turned on him it surely is all up. All parties to have new leaders by October?
>
> And what chance of the replacements proving to be improvements ?
A new Leader could well transform Labour's propects, either for the betrer or the dramatically worse!
And a feature of the first few races has been the market underestimating Bottas and Leclerc.
The big question the Lib Dems need to consider is are they prepared for their party to be transformed at the top by incomers?
>
> I didn't understand the reference to 'streetfighter' until I checked Wiki. Verdroll. But it could be endless fun. She's turning the party in a new direction - The 'Jeremy Kyle faction'.
>
> She'll give as much as she gets. No backhanders from that lady.
----
I think El Capitano underestimate how damaging it is. We will all have a lot of fun if she is elected leader.
Foxy can correct me, but I don't believe that the police concluded that Moran was under threat. That comes from Moran's own statement about the incident.
I mean it was a conference of the Scottish Libdems, for Chrissake. There were probably 10 people there & 5 of them were comatose.
It is hard to conceive of a less stressful, less threatening environment.
> > @CD13 said:
> >
> > I didn't understand the reference to 'streetfighter' until I checked Wiki. Verdroll. But it could be endless fun. She's turning the party in a new direction - The 'Jeremy Kyle faction'.
> >
> > She'll give as much as she gets. No backhanders from that lady.
>
> ----
>
> I think El Capitano underestimate how damaging it is. We will all have a lot of fun if she is elected leader.
>
> Foxy can correct me, but I don't believe that the police concluded that Moran was under threat. That comes from Moran's own statement about the incident.
>
> I mean it was a conference of the Scottish Libdems, for Chrissake. There were probably 10 people there & 5 of them were comatose.
>
> It is hard to conceive of a less stressful, less threatening environment.
Her statement was agreed by her ex partner Richard.
Sure, people will fling dirt at their political opponents, but I don't think it will be a factor in the LD leadership contest.
> Her statement was agreed by her ex partner Richard.
>
Citation, please. What did the boyf agree ?
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> > Thanks for the article Golden Aspie. The Lib Dems and the TIGgers don’t have time to fight each other so they need to reach an accommodation fairly quickly. Both sides are idiotic if they think they should be avoidably opening a new front when they already have two unavoidable fronts in the main parties. As OGH says, the main question is the balance of power between the two sides and the upcoming elections should help the Lib Dems there. The opportunity to double the personnel in Parliament (with the prospect of more if further possible defectors are staying in touch with former colleagues) is a substantial prize and worth quite a bit of flexibility.
>
> >
>
> > It’s worth noting that the Lib Dems offer one other thing to potential new recruits: a mass membership that is enthused. With their sudden rerelevance, a virtuous circle could be in the offing. But only if the Lib Dems work out a way to make friends not war.
>
>
>
> Sensible points. But the dynamic isn’t right now; it reminds me of the SDP in the pre-83 period, before that year’s GE forced some harsh lessons in the SDP’s direction. They (and any alliance) are hampered by some of their members obviously not being liberals and indeed some of the Labour ones still very hostile toward their old rivals.
>
>
>
> The CUK individuals seems to have brought a lot more baggage with them and found it more difficult to project a fresh new image than did the SDP nearly forty years ago.
>
>
>
> Perhaps there’ll be greater realism after the Euros, particularly if some of their MPs know they are now going to retire. But I think they will still hold out for a big wedge of new defectors from either Tory or Labour remainers should Brexit sink one of the larger parties. Both sides of CUK know how unhappy many of their former colleagues are.
>
> Which is exactly why CHUK and the Lib Dems need to do the jiggy jiggy thing. CHUK have the connections to future defectors. But the Lib Dems offer potential defectors what CHUK can't - help on the ground. What exactly is holding defectors back right now? The fear of throwing away their careers. But if the Lib Dems keep rising in the polls, that fear becomes much diminished. And if they have former colleagues telling them to come in, the water's lovely, that can only help.
>
> The big question the Lib Dems need to consider is are they prepared for their party to be transformed at the top by incomers?
I don't think it would be transformed at the top. LD leaders are elected by the membership. Even if CHUK were all accepted into membership today, I dont think any of them likely to win any contest.
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1127992610214248450
>
> >
> > Her statement was agreed by her ex partner Richard.
> >
>
> Citation, please. What did the boyf agree ?
It is in the first paragraph of her statement:
https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1109528327453331456?s=19
> Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:
>
> https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1127992610214248450
The only way that design could be worse is if they used Comic Sans.
Their PPB was so soulless and lacking in genuine passion, everything black & white like a pretentious 80s pop video. Absolutely nailed them
> I don't buy the idea that LibDem members will be reluctant to pick someone inexperienced in case they end up being kingmakers or something. I think they'll want a strong media performer with a bit of energy and audacity. Accordingly, Layla Moran looks like excellent value.
I agree. That hasn't been much of a consideration for Labour and looks like not being much of a consideration for the Tories, who have traditionally put greater emphasis on leadership ability in government more than anyone (especially when *in* government).
Given that the Lib Dems are unlikely to end up in government at all - why would they repeat the experience of the last coalition with a far less willing partner than they had in Cameron, whether it be Corbyn and his Marxist chums, or May's ERG-endorsed successor? Much better to go down the DUP C&S route.
The Lib Dems need someone who can get their message out there effectively. If they're that bothered about government experience, they might as well stick with Cable.
I disagree strongly with one aspect. The idea that Moran's governmental inexperience is a hindrance is for the birds. It would neuter a main Labour attack, namely the coalition years. Just as Corbyn has quieted the "but Iraq" criticism, so could an outside to the coalition for the LDs. Her reputation outside the party is high among those who have heard of her.
> Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:
>
> https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1127992610214248450
Looks like a barcode on the left and the writing devoid of colour
>
> It is in the first paragraph of her statement:
>
> https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1109528327453331456?s=19
You stated that
"It more suggests, as the Glasgow police decided, that she felt under threat and acted in self defence,"
So, your statement is not correct. The Glasgow police did not so decide.
Note that even the boyf did not agree she was "under threat". The boyf agreed that she "felt threatened". That is rather different.
I suspect, if Layla becomes leader, we may hear from the boyf himself, whom some LibDems seem anxious to libel as an abuser.
Seriously, if you lose you temper and slap someone over a lost computer cable at a conf of the Scottish LibDems, then you don't have the temperament to be leader.
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > > Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.
> > > >
> > > > And be epically awful.
> > >
> > > As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.
> >
> > Moran will make May look like a political titan in comparison.....
>
> Quite likely that the opposite is true. Mays Conservatives are likely to poll below the LDs in next weeks national election. It must be over a Century since that last happened.
It will also be only the second time in a century a party to the right of the Tories has won a national poll if the Brexit Party follow UKIP's success in 2014 and top the poll
Can't see what's wrong with Davey myself. Apart from being less glam than the other two he seems to have excellent credentials. Is he too right wing for the base? Don't see that would do much harm with the broader electorate.
I expect it will be Swinson, who appears a safe enough choice.
https://t.co/GvyJpCUZO8
May's more old-fashioned, though. She just says things that might or might not be related to the question she was asked.
"Would you like a starter with that?"
"I'm committed to starters, but not at any price. This is a good starter for Britain. And I never said no starter was better than a bad starter."
I suspect the GBH on her boyfriend will do her no harm at all.
Had she been male and slapped a girlfriend, it would be career-ending, but this way round, it is probably a plus. Gutsy, determined, and won't back down. A master stroke of PR. Can you arrange for her to eat a hamster?
> > @Drutt said:
>
> > Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1127992610214248450
>
>
>
>
>
> Looks like a barcode on the left and the writing devoid of colour
>
> It's not the worst thing we've seen on the side of a political bus in recent years.
At least that caught the eye.
Say what you like about Cummings and Farage, they know how to run a campaign and sell a message unlike CUK at the moment it seems
Small market. £10K so far.
> .> @Foxy said:
>
> > > @MarqueeMark said:
>
> > > > @IanB2 said:
>
> > > > > @MarqueeMark said:
>
> > > > > Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > And be epically awful.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.
>
> > >
>
> > > Moran will make May look like a political titan in comparison.....
>
> >
>
> > Quite likely that the opposite is true. Mays Conservatives are likely to poll below the LDs in next weeks national election. It must be over a Century since that last happened.
>
>
>
> It will also be only the second time in a century a party to the right of the Tories has won a national poll if the Brexit Party follow UKIP's success in 2014 and top the poll
>
> Both led by that unpopular failure, ‘toxic’ Farage
About a third of the electorate would happily vote for Farage, he will have trouble getting above that but with the Remain parties divided and the Tories in chaos that suits him for now
It is NOT an endorsement ... but is intended to sound like one
> > @Drutt said:
>
> > Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1127992610214248450
>
>
>
>
>
> Looks like a barcode on the left and the writing devoid of colour
>
> It's not the worst thing we've seen on the side of a political bus in recent years.
No but it invariably gets linked to it and does not help their messaging - they seem destined to make poor choices handing the field to the LDs.
>
> “Permission to share our story” sounds like a very precise wording.
>
> It is NOT an endorsement ... but is intended to sound like one
As in all things, it would be interesting to hear the other side of this "shared" story.
And I suspect, if Layla becomes leader, we will.
The matter itself is relatively inconsequential, but it does not suggest a good temperament for the cauldron of politics.
They are going to be walked all over
(I’ll get my coat)
Although the Brexit Party would still narrowly lead on 32 to 34% in each scenario
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/10/how-might-green-lib-dem-change-uk-pact-have-done-e
>
> Trying to make an issue of something the two parties involved in have agreed to draw a line under is hardly a good faith criticism.
That's politics. Your life is under scrutiny.
I'm getting nervous about my green next to his name, I may cash out.
> An interesting article, although I detect a touch of wishful thinking in the unqualified endorsement of Swinson (as well as too many commas).
>
> That said I think Moran will be lucky to come unscathed through a leadership election given her - ahem - interesting domestic life. So I agree Swinson is the most likely winner if she stands.
I don't think the slap will be a problem, any more than Prescott thumping the egger on live TV. The proportion of the electorate who have had this level of domestic argument is probably quite high. Not sure that relations with CUK will be that important to LibDem members - the LDs will clearly be well ahead of them, so can afford to take them or leave them for now.
Swinson is the safe choice, but whether safe choices are a good idea in the current climate is debatable. I feel mildly curious about Moran, whereas Swinson feels like old politics (as does Davey).
>
> Trying to make an issue of something the two parties involved in have agreed to draw a line under is hardly a good faith criticism.
Also, what is often more damaging is the cover-up.
Foxy has certainly misrepresented the "agreed" statement in his haste to exonerate Layla.
Damian Green had to resign over a technical detail in his rebuttal.
The porn allegations remained unproven, but it was his defence against them, when he misrepresented the truth, that did for him.
Certainly, a statement that "Glasgow police decided she felt under threat and acted in self-defence" is straight out of the Damian Green playbook.
> Dr Fox,
>
> I suspect the GBH on her boyfriend will do her no harm at all.
>
> Had she been male and slapped a girlfriend, it would be career-ending, but this way round, it is probably a plus. Gutsy, determined, and won't back down. A master stroke of PR. Can you arrange for her to eat a hamster?
>
My wife wife, Jacky, an LD member since the party's foundation in 1987, declared that this was was a reason to vote for her.
> In which Nigel Farage objects to being asked questions that he doesn't want to answer:
> https://t.co/GvyJpCUZO8
>
> No doubt if he’d slapped his missus about that would be ok, as long as he released a statement saying she was alright with it
That maybe true but a woman slapping her husband because she felt threatened is going to lose her precisely zero votes!
That’s the way of things , Layla Moran will come across as feisty and not to be messed with .
It’s not like she beat him to a pulp with a cricket bat ! I like her and she comes across very well .
The slap incident will do zero damage to her chances .