> @Dura_Ace said: > If Farage is canny (and reins in his madder candidates) he could win a General Election. He is Trump, with less money, but smarter. > > There is now a bigger prize than Brexit within his grasp. <
++++
I reckon Farage has always thought of himself as a single issue protest politician, happy to sup wine with Juncker in the Strasbourg fleshpots, while sincerely pursuing his cause. And when he got the referendum, and it was won, he probably reckoned: OK, I'm done, Job over.
But then he was witness to Trump's ascent to serious power. That must have made him think.
He's still quite young (for a politician). He still has a popular touch (even if it grates horribly on people like me).
Why not aim higher? If The Donald can do it, so can The Nigel. I suspect his thoughts evolved roughly along those lines.
> @Byronic said: > > @williamglenn said: > > Con and Lab plummeting in Westminster polling. > > > > https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1127723220352819200?s=21 > > ++++ > > As predicted by some of us, Labour are now taking the heavy punches, because the Tories are knocked unconscious. > > This is Sindyref, the aftermath, times a million. No one wants T May's lies, no one wants Corbyn's Stalinism. > > If Farage is canny (and reins in his madder candidates) he could win a General Election. He is Trump, with less money, but smarter.
That 24%-24% result would be quite the stalemate - Labour and Tories on about 260 seats and no other party big enough to get a coalition over 325 seats. It would also be an echo of early-1930s Germany, although I doubt very much that HRH will "do a Hindenburg".
> @rottenborough said: > > @Floater said: > > > 2008 redux baby > > > > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7020755/Metro-Bank-tells-customers-money-safe-despite-social-media-rumours.html > > > > Have no idea of the veracity of the above. BUT, it does highlight a serious issue. How would this government cope if a black swan event were to occur? > > When urgent decisions of a profound nature needed taking in double quick time? > > Not well I should imagine. > > I suspect Metro is small enough for the FSA scheme to cope with most customers and the fall-out across the wider banking sector (with inter-bank debt) would be minimal. > > Famous last words...
I once got £20k back via an FSCS bailout following the collapse of a credit union - it was quite stressful as for months the CU wouldn't allow any savers to withdraw cash but wouldn't declare themselves insolvent either - thus triggering the FSCS payouts. Eventually following a lot of lobbying - including of MPs - the authorities intervened and took control.
It can happen in the oddest of places - the Kensington and Chelsea credit union collapsed last October.
> If Farage is canny (and reins in his madder candidates) he could win a General Election. He is Trump, with less money, but smarter.
>
> There is now a bigger prize than Brexit within his grasp. <
++++
I reckon Farage has always thought of himself as a single issue protest politician, happy to sup wine with Juncker in the Strasbourg fleshpots, while sincerely pursuing his cause. And when he got the referendum, and it was won, he probably reckoned: OK, I'm done, Job over.
But then he was witness to Trump's ascent to serious power. That must have made him think.
He's still quite young (for a politician). He still has a popular touch (even if it grates horribly on people like me).
Why not aim higher? If The Donald can do it, so can The Nigel. I suspect his thoughts evolved roughly along those lines.
Nighty night.
The Internet is enabling the unprecedentedly rapid rise of disruptive politicians in a way that was previously unthinkable. Farage gets this and is rerunning the Trump election playbook down to the pixel. I will be surprised if he doesn't start hinting at the possibility of criminal proceedings against May. Lock her up...
We are watching a counter-cultural revolution play out right in front of us. The true precedent for Trump was Wavy Gravy not Barry Goldwater.
> @Byronic said: > > @Dura_Ace said: > > If Farage is canny (and reins in his madder candidates) he could win a General Election. He is Trump, with less money, but smarter. > > > > There is now a bigger prize than Brexit within his grasp. < > > ++++ > > I reckon Farage has always thought of himself as a single issue protest politician, happy to sup wine with Juncker in the Strasbourg fleshpots, while sincerely pursuing his cause. And when he got the referendum, and it was won, he probably reckoned: OK, I'm done, Job over. > > But then he was witness to Trump's ascent to serious power. That must have made him think. > > He's still quite young (for a politician). He still has a popular touch (even if it grates horribly on people like me). > > Why not aim higher? If The Donald can do it, so can The Nigel. I suspect his thoughts evolved roughly along those lines. > > Nighty night.
Here's my issue with Nigel Farage.
During the referendum campaign, he described the EU as a protectionist racket, and longed for us to be more free trading. Now, he's lording Trump and his protectionist policies. ("What's wrong with Protectionism?" he Tweeted.)
At the time, I though this change was the result of him being fundamentally dishonest, and not really being in favour of free trade.
But that's not the case. Nigel Farage sees Donald Trump as "one of us". (By which I mean that he's a member of the same political tribe as Nigel Farage.) And therefore if his tribe is now opposed to free trade, then so's he.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @Dura_Ace said: > > > If Farage is canny (and reins in his madder candidates) he could win a General Election. He is Trump, with less money, but smarter. > > > > > > There is now a bigger prize than Brexit within his grasp. < > > > > ++++ > > > > I reckon Farage has always thought of himself as a single issue protest politician, happy to sup wine with Juncker in the Strasbourg fleshpots, while sincerely pursuing his cause. And when he got the referendum, and it was won, he probably reckoned: OK, I'm done, Job over. > > > > But then he was witness to Trump's ascent to serious power. That must have made him think. > > > > He's still quite young (for a politician). He still has a popular touch (even if it grates horribly on people like me). > > > > Why not aim higher? If The Donald can do it, so can The Nigel. I suspect his thoughts evolved roughly along those lines. > > > > Nighty night. > > Here's my issue with Nigel Farage. > > During the referendum campaign, he described the EU as a protectionist racket, and longed for us to be more free trading. Now, he's lording Trump and his protectionist policies. ("What's wrong with Protectionism?" he Tweeted.) > > At the time, I though this change was the result of him being fundamentally dishonest, and not really being in favour of free trade. > > But that's not the case. Nigel Farage sees Donald Trump as "one of us". (By which I mean that he's a member of the same political tribe as Nigel Farage.) And therefore if his tribe is now opposed to free trade, then so's he.
Yup. It's my team or yours now. Economics is irrelevant. As is all policy. Are you for us or against us?
> @Dadge said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > Con and Lab plummeting in Westminster polling. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1127723220352819200?s=21 > > > > ++++ > > > > As predicted by some of us, Labour are now taking the heavy punches, because the Tories are knocked unconscious. > > > > This is Sindyref, the aftermath, times a million. No one wants T May's lies, no one wants Corbyn's Stalinism. > > > > If Farage is canny (and reins in his madder candidates) he could win a General Election. He is Trump, with less money, but smarter. > > That 24%-24% result would be quite the stalemate - Labour and Tories on about 260 seats and no other party big enough to get a coalition over 325 seats. It would also be an echo of early-1930s Germany, although I doubt very much that HRH will "do a Hindenburg".
Sorry - it really isn't an echo of early 1930s Germany. What a ridiculous comparison.
Its pretty much what every European nation faces now following a general election - as most have multi party parliaments elected under PR. It really isn't a big deal - even though it might be a shock to the Tories and Labour.
YouGov usually have Labour a good few points lower than other pollsters. A bit of an outlier usually, although whether it is correct or not is a different matter.
Impressive how strong the main two parties' brands are.
The governing part called a referendum to satisfy their crazy people, lost it, then failed to implement anything that would satisfy their crazy people.
The main opposition managed to strategize itself in a position where it's considered far too extreme to attract moderates or defectors, yet agrees with the government on all the main issues of the day.
Impressive how strong the main two parties' brands are.
The governing part called a referendum to satisfy their crazy people, lost it, then failed to implement anything that would satisfy their crazy people.
The main opposition managed to strategize itself in a position where it's considered far too extreme to attract moderates or defectors, yet agrees with the government on all the main issues of the day.
Yet between them, somehow,,, 48%...
I'm not sure many people would agree that Conservatives and Labour agree on all the main issues of the day. I assume we would at least have more legislation going through the house of commons, the voting records don't seem to indicate much agreement when legislation is attempted...
I guess it is talking about a people's vote?
I'm also not sure that can really count as 'all the main issues of the day' and Labour have whipped and then voted heavily for one a few times, the Conservatives have not so there doesn't exactly seem to much agreement there either.
In terms of other Brexit votes one Tory voted for Labour's Brexit plan and 3 Labour MPs voted for the Tories one. If the Tories and Labour largely agreed on something it would already have passed. Is it maybe a reference to something that has already passed like triggering article 50?
Wow, I know we need to take a large pinch of salt when looking at Westminster polls in the runup to the EU elections, but that 24/24 poll is damn close to unprecedented.
Can’t see a general election happening any time soon now, there’s a lot of MP turkeys who won’t be voting for Christmas.
On topic: Steve Baker is a next to nobody who seems not to realise it. Lets remember what is ultimately going to do it for May, a kicking at the polls. How Baker is in any way considered credible by a single member of the Conservative Party is beyond me.
Off topic: I was abroad very recently in what we wonderfully term 'the Middle East'. There is a genuine concern over the current Iran/US escalation amongst pretty much anyone I spoke to, where the subject came up. Some talked of an almost certain provocation, real or faked, sparking something off.
With that in mind, stories, reportedly from official UAE sources, are claiming attempted sabotage operations against 4 civilian (merchant) vessels in its waters.
There’s definitely something up. Iranian television also showing false reports of fires at a UAE port.
The Westminster polling is exciting and tragic but also a fantasy. Voters intend to use Brexit for a single purpose. I don’t believe Farage or his party have the breadth or depth to contend seriously in national elections (although they have two years or so to develop that perhaps).
Seems though that we can be sure they will top the Euros, and they must be at least joint favourites for Peterborough.
Still not clear how this resolves. Labour’s best bet electorally is still probably to do nothing; or perhaps to force another referendum. Both hurt the Tories more.
Comments
> If Farage is canny (and reins in his madder candidates) he could win a General Election. He is Trump, with less money, but smarter.
>
> There is now a bigger prize than Brexit within his grasp. <
++++
I reckon Farage has always thought of himself as a single issue protest politician, happy to sup wine with Juncker in the Strasbourg fleshpots, while sincerely pursuing his cause. And when he got the referendum, and it was won, he probably reckoned: OK, I'm done, Job over.
But then he was witness to Trump's ascent to serious power. That must have made him think.
He's still quite young (for a politician). He still has a popular touch (even if it grates horribly on people like me).
Why not aim higher? If The Donald can do it, so can The Nigel. I suspect his thoughts evolved roughly along those lines.
Nighty night.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > > @Saltire said:
> > > > The race for 2nd place is beginning to get pretty close...
> > > >
> > > > <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">European Election Voting Intention:
BXP: 34% (+4)
LAB: 16% (-5)
LDM: 15% (+5)
GRN: 11% (+2)
CON: 10% (-3)
CHUK: 5% (-4)
Via <a href="https://twitter.com/YouGov?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">@YouGov<;/a>, 8-9 May.
Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.</p>— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) <a href="https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1127720320067149825?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">May 12, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
> > >
> > > BAXTERED, that result produces this:
> > >
> > > Labour: 90 (yes)
> > > Tories: 0 (yes)
> > > Libs: 24
> > > SNP: 56
> > > Brexit Party: 456
> >
> > Although Baxtered, the WVI produces this
> > Con 274
> > Lab. 264
> > LD. 25
> > SNP. 56
> > BP. 8.
> > Which shows.
> > 1) FPTP is utterly broken.
> > 2) Small changes make HUGE differences.
> > 3) No one knows anymore... Although recent form shows you know better than me... <
>
> ++++
>
> I think we can agree on this: with changes on this scale, traditional electoral predictions are useless (cf Scotland after indyref) and all assumptions must be challenged.
>
>
>
>
Yep. I think the odds of an election before 2022 just lengthened. Which is good for my book if not the country necessarily.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Con and Lab plummeting in Westminster polling.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1127723220352819200?s=21
>
> ++++
>
> As predicted by some of us, Labour are now taking the heavy punches, because the Tories are knocked unconscious.
>
> This is Sindyref, the aftermath, times a million. No one wants T May's lies, no one wants Corbyn's Stalinism.
>
> If Farage is canny (and reins in his madder candidates) he could win a General Election. He is Trump, with less money, but smarter.
That 24%-24% result would be quite the stalemate - Labour and Tories on about 260 seats and no other party big enough to get a coalition over 325 seats. It would also be an echo of early-1930s Germany, although I doubt very much that HRH will "do a Hindenburg".
> > @Floater said:
>
> > 2008 redux baby
>
> >
>
> > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7020755/Metro-Bank-tells-customers-money-safe-despite-social-media-rumours.html
>
>
>
> Have no idea of the veracity of the above. BUT, it does highlight a serious issue. How would this government cope if a black swan event were to occur?
>
> When urgent decisions of a profound nature needed taking in double quick time?
>
> Not well I should imagine.
>
> I suspect Metro is small enough for the FSA scheme to cope with most customers and the fall-out across the wider banking sector (with inter-bank debt) would be minimal.
>
> Famous last words...
I once got £20k back via an FSCS bailout following the collapse of a credit union - it was quite stressful as for months the CU wouldn't allow any savers to withdraw cash but wouldn't declare themselves insolvent either - thus triggering the FSCS payouts. Eventually following a lot of lobbying - including of MPs - the authorities intervened and took control.
It can happen in the oddest of places - the Kensington and Chelsea credit union collapsed last October.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/oct/09/credit-union-in-wealthy-london-borough-collapses
I rather doubt we are about to see a run on the Metro bank though - but contagion is always a worry when rumours start.
We are watching a counter-cultural revolution play out right in front of us. The true precedent for Trump was Wavy Gravy not Barry Goldwater.
> > @Dura_Ace said:
> > If Farage is canny (and reins in his madder candidates) he could win a General Election. He is Trump, with less money, but smarter.
> >
> > There is now a bigger prize than Brexit within his grasp. <
>
> ++++
>
> I reckon Farage has always thought of himself as a single issue protest politician, happy to sup wine with Juncker in the Strasbourg fleshpots, while sincerely pursuing his cause. And when he got the referendum, and it was won, he probably reckoned: OK, I'm done, Job over.
>
> But then he was witness to Trump's ascent to serious power. That must have made him think.
>
> He's still quite young (for a politician). He still has a popular touch (even if it grates horribly on people like me).
>
> Why not aim higher? If The Donald can do it, so can The Nigel. I suspect his thoughts evolved roughly along those lines.
>
> Nighty night.
Here's my issue with Nigel Farage.
During the referendum campaign, he described the EU as a protectionist racket, and longed for us to be more free trading. Now, he's lording Trump and his protectionist policies. ("What's wrong with Protectionism?" he Tweeted.)
At the time, I though this change was the result of him being fundamentally dishonest, and not really being in favour of free trade.
But that's not the case. Nigel Farage sees Donald Trump as "one of us". (By which I mean that he's a member of the same political tribe as Nigel Farage.) And therefore if his tribe is now opposed to free trade, then so's he.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @Dura_Ace said:
> > > If Farage is canny (and reins in his madder candidates) he could win a General Election. He is Trump, with less money, but smarter.
> > >
> > > There is now a bigger prize than Brexit within his grasp. <
> >
> > ++++
> >
> > I reckon Farage has always thought of himself as a single issue protest politician, happy to sup wine with Juncker in the Strasbourg fleshpots, while sincerely pursuing his cause. And when he got the referendum, and it was won, he probably reckoned: OK, I'm done, Job over.
> >
> > But then he was witness to Trump's ascent to serious power. That must have made him think.
> >
> > He's still quite young (for a politician). He still has a popular touch (even if it grates horribly on people like me).
> >
> > Why not aim higher? If The Donald can do it, so can The Nigel. I suspect his thoughts evolved roughly along those lines.
> >
> > Nighty night.
>
> Here's my issue with Nigel Farage.
>
> During the referendum campaign, he described the EU as a protectionist racket, and longed for us to be more free trading. Now, he's lording Trump and his protectionist policies. ("What's wrong with Protectionism?" he Tweeted.)
>
> At the time, I though this change was the result of him being fundamentally dishonest, and not really being in favour of free trade.
>
> But that's not the case. Nigel Farage sees Donald Trump as "one of us". (By which I mean that he's a member of the same political tribe as Nigel Farage.) And therefore if his tribe is now opposed to free trade, then so's he.
Yup. It's my team or yours now. Economics is irrelevant. As is all policy. Are you for us or against us?
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > Con and Lab plummeting in Westminster polling.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1127723220352819200?s=21
> >
> > ++++
> >
> > As predicted by some of us, Labour are now taking the heavy punches, because the Tories are knocked unconscious.
> >
> > This is Sindyref, the aftermath, times a million. No one wants T May's lies, no one wants Corbyn's Stalinism.
> >
> > If Farage is canny (and reins in his madder candidates) he could win a General Election. He is Trump, with less money, but smarter.
>
> That 24%-24% result would be quite the stalemate - Labour and Tories on about 260 seats and no other party big enough to get a coalition over 325 seats. It would also be an echo of early-1930s Germany, although I doubt very much that HRH will "do a Hindenburg".
Sorry - it really isn't an echo of early 1930s Germany. What a ridiculous comparison.
Its pretty much what every European nation faces now following a general election - as most have multi party parliaments elected under PR. It really isn't a big deal - even though it might be a shock to the Tories and Labour.
The governing part called a referendum to satisfy their crazy people, lost it, then failed to implement anything that would satisfy their crazy people.
The main opposition managed to strategize itself in a position where it's considered far too extreme to attract moderates or defectors, yet agrees with the government on all the main issues of the day.
Yet between them, somehow,,, 48%...
I guess it is talking about a people's vote?
I'm also not sure that can really count as 'all the main issues of the day' and Labour have whipped and then voted heavily for one a few times, the Conservatives have not so there doesn't exactly seem to much agreement there either.
In terms of other Brexit votes one Tory voted for Labour's Brexit plan and 3 Labour MPs voted for the Tories one. If the Tories and Labour largely agreed on something it would already have passed. Is it maybe a reference to something that has already passed like triggering article 50?
Can’t see a general election happening any time soon now, there’s a lot of MP turkeys who won’t be voting for Christmas.
Local UAE reporting. https://www.thenational.ae/uae/uae-says-four-cargo-vessels-sabotaged-off-fujairah-coast-1.860279
Seems though that we can be sure they will top the Euros, and they must be at least joint favourites for Peterborough.
Still not clear how this resolves.
Labour’s best bet electorally is still probably to do nothing; or perhaps to force another referendum. Both hurt the Tories more.