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Expectations management or are the Conservatives really going to finish sixth in the European elections?https://t.co/HmZfRgv4yd
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> @HYUFD said:
> Astonishingly Opinium now has the Tory Party getting more votes from Remainers, 12%, than the 11% it gets from Leavers in the European Parliament elections with so many Leavers now voting Brexit Party. Which will please William Glenn if few Tory MPs bar the likes of Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve and Justine Greening
>
> https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/05/11/brexit-party-doubles-lead-over-labour-in-european-election-poll/
It’s what several of us have been predicting for some time. The residual Tory EU election vote will be a majority Remain vote.
You’ve been too busy getting excited about PM Farage to notice.
How many of us exactly will define the absolute floor. Around 12-15% I suspect, though not all will turn out for the Euros.
> Labour at better than evens in Peterborough by election looks value.
>
> Who’s their candidate? Local union rep or councillor, or parachuted-in Corbynite Loyalist from London?
Unite trade unionist, lived there for 30 years, was previous candidate in 2015 when she lost to Stewart Jackson by 2000 votes.
Edit: she was a city councillor until 2016 I think.
Must admit, I almost backed Labour in the by-election the other day. Might give that a look when I'm contemplating F1 bets.
What I don't understand about the odds is the mere 8/1 for 6th place. They would have to finish below UKIP and that really isn't feasible. Similarly 20/1 is too short for 7th place. If you really think the Tories are going to do that badly (I don't) you'd be better off fishing around in markets that offer odds on percentage share where you can back Tories under 5%.
As for our <10% bet, it was 7/4 when I last looked. I reckons evens would be more like it. I'll wait for Shadsy to rub the sleep out of his eyes before I start to hedge.
All the best. PtP
> FPT:
>
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Astonishingly Opinium now has the Tory Party getting more votes from Remainers, 12%, than the 11% it gets from Leavers in the European Parliament elections with so many Leavers now voting Brexit Party. Which will please William Glenn if few Tory MPs bar the likes of Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve and Justine Greening
> >
> > https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/05/11/brexit-party-doubles-lead-over-labour-in-european-election-poll/
>
> It’s what several of us have been predicting for some time. The residual Tory EU election vote will be a majority Remain vote.
>
> You’ve been too busy getting excited about PM Farage to notice
Yep - it could just be that hidden away in all the polling we’re seeing is quite a healthy Remain majority.
> How can anyone now believe FPTP is the best way for the UK to choose it’s government?
Anyone who doesn't want the Brexit Party with 30% of the seats?
> There are still some of us who care far more about the party than we do for either Brexit or Remain. Tribal Tories, but not remotely tribal on the Brexit issue.
>
> How many of us exactly will define the absolute floor. Around 12-15% I suspect, though not all will turn out for the Euros.
>
That's why TSE's <10% suggestion was such a stonking good one. Sure there's 15% or more tribal Tories who care more about the Party than B or R, but why would they vote in the Euros? Why would any Tory vote? It's pointless.
Normal Tories will abstain. Those who are really mad about things will find somewhere to lodge their protest vote, even if it's with the Loonies. That leaves only those on autopilot, and I reckon that's barely 10%.
Even money in my book whether they finish above or below that benchmark.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > How can anyone now believe FPTP is the best way for the UK to choose it’s government?
>
> Anyone who doesn't want the Brexit Party with 30% of the seats?
About 70% of the nation ?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/i-led-a-platoon-in-iraq-trump-is-wrong-to-pardon-war-criminals/2019/05/09/15b10430-71d5-11e9-9eb4-0828f5389013_story.html
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > How can anyone now believe FPTP is the best way for the UK to choose it’s government?
> >
> > Anyone who doesn't want the Brexit Party with 30% of the seats?
>
> About 70% of the nation ?
>
>
80% in a general election.
> FPT:
>
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Astonishingly Opinium now has the Tory Party getting more votes from Remainers, 12%, than the 11% it gets from Leavers in the European Parliament elections with so many Leavers now voting Brexit Party. Which will please William Glenn if few Tory MPs bar the likes of Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve and Justine Greening
> >
> > https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/05/11/brexit-party-doubles-lead-over-labour-in-european-election-poll/
>
> It’s what several of us have been predicting for some time. The residual Tory EU election vote will be a majority Remain vote.
>
> You’ve been too busy getting excited about PM Farage to notice.
Quite extraordinary loyalty, to be a Remain voting Tory. I would have thought the few voting Tory still would be backers of the Deal.
Surely though we will see May gone and a new Leader immediately post EU elections? The Deal then returns as the only alternative to No Deal.
https://twitter.com/bevanite2019/status/1127259221131657221?s=21
> > @SirBenjamin said:
> > There are still some of us who care far more about the party than we do for either Brexit or Remain. Tribal Tories, but not remotely tribal on the Brexit issue.
> >
> > How many of us exactly will define the absolute floor. Around 12-15% I suspect, though not all will turn out for the Euros.
> >
>
> That's why TSE's <10% suggestion was such a stonking good one. Sure there's 15% or more tribal Tories who care more about the Party than B or R, but why would they vote in the Euros? Why would any Tory vote? It's pointless.
>
> Normal Tories will abstain. Those who are really mad about things will find somewhere to lodge their protest vote, even if it's with the Loonies. That leaves only those on autopilot, and I reckon that's barely 10%.
>
> Even money in my book whether they finish above or below that benchmark.
I reckon Tories on mid teens. There are lots of loyal Tories who stick with the party, no matter how incompetent and shambolic. They are also habitual voters to whom not-voting is anathema.
We could do with a PB prediction conteston this!
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > How can anyone now believe FPTP is the best way for the UK to choose it’s government?
> >
> > Anyone who doesn't want the Brexit Party with 30% of the seats?
>
> About 70% of the nation ?
>
>
Except 100% of the Labour Party now think they are getting Buggins' Turn - so no chance of change.....
> UKIP got as high as 38% in the polling prior to the last European elections.
> https://twitter.com/bevanite2019/status/1127259221131657221?s=21
If we believe their 14%, it’s the LDs that are performing differently.
I think the way it goes will depend a lot on the fallout from the EU elections a couple of weeks before. One or other party will be seen as in the ascendancy, and that party will likely win in Peterborough.
This election is absolutely a free hit. Not only is no government at stake (in theory!) but there is a mechanism whereby the MEPs may not even take their seats. So anyone can vote for anyone to show two fingers to our elected tossers, er, representatives.
Which is why the Tories were mad to contest them. They should just have said 'waste of time and money, only needed because the ERG are closet Remainers, not going to be needed anyway' and let the other parties knock lumps off each other, especially in Northern Ireland so the DUP finally see sense on the deal.
And not least, it would have rid us of Daniel Hannan.
> > @SirBenjamin said:
> > There are still some of us who care far more about the party than we do for either Brexit or Remain. Tribal Tories, but not remotely tribal on the Brexit issue.
> >
> > How many of us exactly will define the absolute floor. Around 12-15% I suspect, though not all will turn out for the Euros.
> >
>
> That's why TSE's <10% suggestion was such a stonking good one. Sure there's 15% or more tribal Tories who care more about the Party than B or R, but why would they vote in the Euros? Why would any Tory vote? It's pointless.
>
> Normal Tories will abstain. Those who are really mad about things will find somewhere to lodge their protest vote, even if it's with the Loonies. That leaves only those on autopilot, and I reckon that's barely 10%.
>
> Even money in my book whether they finish above or below that benchmark.
My parents are a good example.
They think politics hasn't been worse in their lifetimes, they are very frustrated, like the Brexit Party but they are in their 70s and have voted Tory all their lives.
So they will vote Tory this time as well.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > UKIP got as high as 38% in the polling prior to the last European elections.
> > https://twitter.com/bevanite2019/status/1127259221131657221?s=21
>
> If we believe their 14%, it’s the LDs that are performing differently.
I think TBP are overstated too, but those were also different times and the Conservatives were coherent and only a year away from a full GE, where they were also understated.
> On topic, if their expectations management is as poor as it was for the locals, we should expect the Tories to get no votes and Labour to finish fifth behind the Greens and the Official Monster Raving Loony Party.
>
> This election is absolutely a free hit. Not only is no government at stake (in theory!) but there is a mechanism whereby the MEPs may not even take their seats. So anyone can vote for anyone to show two fingers to our elected tossers, er, representatives.
>
> Which is why the Tories were mad to contest them. They should just have said 'waste of time and money, only needed because the ERG are closet Remainers, not going to be needed anyway' and let the other parties knock lumps off each other, especially in Northern Ireland so the DUP finally see sense on the deal.
>
> And not least, it would have rid us of Daniel Hannan.
Said so at least a month ago. This is a disaster for the Tories and the only upside I can see is May's position finally becoming untenable. At this level of polling Hannan might be struggling anyway.
Also bets on low placing require two things, Cons doing badly and smaller parties doing well enough to beat them. I’m dubious about the scores for the little parties right now.
> Thanks. Sounds like a good candidate. I think it’s 50/50 between Lab and Brexit Party, who also have a good candidate.
>
> I think the way it goes will depend a lot on the fallout from the EU elections a couple of weeks before. One or other party will be seen as in the ascendancy, and that party will likely win in Peterborough.
>
> The Faragistas will not win. What they will do is split the Tory vote so Labour win. (That said, Labour should have won anyway in these circumstances and that it was ever doubtful is a shocking indictment of Corbyn.)
I think it is very likely the Brexit Party will win with the momentum of winning the European elections the week before and Peterborough having voted 60% Leave
> > @IanB2 said:
> > FPT:
> >
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > Astonishingly Opinium now has the Tory Party getting more votes from Remainers, 12%, than the 11% it gets from Leavers in the European Parliament elections with so many Leavers now voting Brexit Party. Which will please William Glenn if few Tory MPs bar the likes of Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve and Justine Greening
> > >
> > > https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/05/11/brexit-party-doubles-lead-over-labour-in-european-election-poll/
> >
> > It’s what several of us have been predicting for some time. The residual Tory EU election vote will be a majority Remain vote.
> >
> > You’ve been too busy getting excited about PM Farage to notice.
>
> Quite extraordinary loyalty, to be a Remain voting Tory. I would have thought the few voting Tory still would be backers of the Deal.
>
> Surely though we will see May gone and a new Leader immediately post EU elections? The Deal then returns as the only alternative to No Deal.
I voted Remain but now back the Deal, same with BigG and I suspect the same holds for some other Remain voting Tories
> Thanks. Sounds like a good candidate. I think it’s 50/50 between Lab and Brexit Party, who also have a good candidate.
>
> I think the way it goes will depend a lot on the fallout from the EU elections a couple of weeks before. One or other party will be seen as in the ascendancy, and that party will likely win in Peterborough.
>
> The Faragistas will not win. What they will do is split the Tory vote so Labour win. (That said, Labour should have won anyway in these circumstances and that it was ever doubtful is a shocking indictment of Corbyn.)
If Conservative voters believe that their party cannot defeat Labour wont they move en mass to Farage?
Only hope for the Conservative is that they may be in the middle of a leadership election by then
The Brexit Party may well come second. They will not win. It is Stoke Central all over again.
Edit - and if you want more proof that Farage can't win, I offer you Hyufd's post...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-wealthy-prepare-to-flee-corbyn-britain-9l25snfx0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0ppnYXk715WUJTL2I3ym3kydMh1VPw4l1dSVyrTMu2PrRGSLusIN0fX5U#Echobox=1557618340
> > @ydoethur said:
> > Thanks. Sounds like a good candidate. I think it’s 50/50 between Lab and Brexit Party, who also have a good candidate.
> >
> > I think the way it goes will depend a lot on the fallout from the EU elections a couple of weeks before. One or other party will be seen as in the ascendancy, and that party will likely win in Peterborough.
> >
> > The Faragistas will not win. What they will do is split the Tory vote so Labour win. (That said, Labour should have won anyway in these circumstances and that it was ever doubtful is a shocking indictment of Corbyn.)
>
> I think it is very likely the Brexit Party will win with the momentum of winning the European elections the week before and Peterborough having voted 60% Leave
Hmm. Not mutually comparable, in my view.
Brexit Party (i.e. Farage and his team) are great at national media profile and rallies. They are crap at ground-campaigning in a tight marginal where effective ward-by-ward canvassing, GOTV and telling operations are crucial.
That requires very good organisation and logistic skills. He doesn't have a great track record. He might still win, but I wouldn't say it's very likely.
> Screen Shot 2019-05-12 at 07.46.36.png
>
> If Labour lose Peterborough then even if the only option is for Macdonnell to kidnap him and fire him from Mr Dancer's space cannon, Corbyn has to go.
>
> The Brexit Party may well come second. They will not win. It is Stoke Central all over again.
>
> Edit - and if you want more proof that Farage can't win, I offer you Hyufd's post...
It is a by election and a free hit at the main parties and the Brexit Party are polling far higher than UKIP did before Stoke Central
> Those voting for the Brexit Party should remember that they're not just voting for Brexit but also for a party led by Farage. Even if I was a Brexiteer that would be a deal breaker. This is a man in Trump's pocket who regularly appears on far right chat shows in the US supporting overt racism and damning everything British
Sounding like the core Project Fear Farage that'll be given mass coverage over the next 2 weeks.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @ydoethur said:
> > > Thanks. Sounds like a good candidate. I think it’s 50/50 between Lab and Brexit Party, who also have a good candidate.
> > >
> > > I think the way it goes will depend a lot on the fallout from the EU elections a couple of weeks before. One or other party will be seen as in the ascendancy, and that party will likely win in Peterborough.
> > >
> > > The Faragistas will not win. What they will do is split the Tory vote so Labour win. (That said, Labour should have won anyway in these circumstances and that it was ever doubtful is a shocking indictment of Corbyn.)
> >
> > I think it is very likely the Brexit Party will win with the momentum of winning the European elections the week before and Peterborough having voted 60% Leave
>
> Hmm. Not mutually comparable, in my view.
>
> Brexit Party (i.e. Farage and his team) are great at national media profile and rallies. They are crap at ground-campaigning in a tight marginal where effective ward-by-ward canvassing, GOTV and telling operations are crucial.
>
> That requires very good organisation and logistic skills. He doesn't have a great track record. He might still win, but I wouldn't say it's very likely.
Canvassing and get out the vote is crucial in close elections, if the Brexit Party win the Peterborough by election they may not only win but win big if it is close Labour could scrape home through GOTV but the Brexit Party held a rally in Peterborough last week that was packed
> Britain's super rich are preparing to flee the country at the prospect of a Corbyn government taking almost £1 trillion with them, many are also making plans to move assets and businesses abroad
>
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-wealthy-prepare-to-flee-corbyn-britain-9l25snfx0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0ppnYXk715WUJTL2I3ym3kydMh1VPw4l1dSVyrTMu2PrRGSLusIN0fX5U#Echobox=1557618340
How do the not so super rich hide their money from McDonnell's state sponsored theft? How much does he want to steal from pension pots? 10%? 20%?
How can anyone structure their pensions to avoid the potential socialist armageddon that will happen if Labour get into power?
> Britain's super rich are preparing to flee the country at the prospect of a Corbyn government taking almost £1 trillion with them, many are also making plans to move assets and businesses abroad
>
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-wealthy-prepare-to-flee-corbyn-britain-9l25snfx0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0ppnYXk715WUJTL2I3ym3kydMh1VPw4l1dSVyrTMu2PrRGSLusIN0fX5U#Echobox=1557618340
Not very patriotic, are they?
>
> Dan Hannan is probably the only Conservative who’s genuinely safe - no matter how how they go, they’ll get more than 10% in the South East region.
Are you sure about that? It would only take around half a million Tories to switch for him to be in trouble.
> Labour, in absolubte % terms in a poor position (Also going backwards at the locals in opposition...)- but it's starting to look absolubtely existential for the Tories.
Yes fantastic. 2019 will certainly be in the history books and we have the privilege of living through it, blow by blow. Better than a box set.
That is particularly likely in the case of CUK, a party formed by people who can’t get on with others (....that’s why they quit their previous parties) and from opposing traditions (Soubry and Gapes in the same party). And presumably with increasingly restive backers wondering where their money has gone.
I may be wrong, but I expect CUK to start tearing itself apart unless there’s a sudden recovery.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Britain's super rich are preparing to flee the country at the prospect of a Corbyn government taking almost £1 trillion with them, many are also making plans to move assets and businesses abroad
> >
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-wealthy-prepare-to-flee-corbyn-britain-9l25snfx0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0ppnYXk715WUJTL2I3ym3kydMh1VPw4l1dSVyrTMu2PrRGSLusIN0fX5U#Echobox=1557618340
>
> Not very patriotic, are they?
>
> Of course not, they are very likely to have voted to remain in the EU too.
The Second Law of Thermodynamics is also inconvenient. But there are constraints on politics other than the votes in the ballot boxes.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Britain's super rich are preparing to flee the country at the prospect of a Corbyn government taking almost £1 trillion with them, many are also making plans to move assets and businesses abroad
> >
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-wealthy-prepare-to-flee-corbyn-britain-9l25snfx0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0ppnYXk715WUJTL2I3ym3kydMh1VPw4l1dSVyrTMu2PrRGSLusIN0fX5U#Echobox=1557618340
>
> Not very patriotic, are they?
Heh.. Anyone who had any money if terrified they would be stuffed by Labour would take such steps its only natural. Patriotism doesn't come into it..
> > @Sandpit said:
>
> > Labour at better than evens in Peterborough by election looks value.
>
> >
>
> > Who’s their candidate? Local union rep or councillor, or parachuted-in Corbynite Loyalist from London?
>
>
>
> Unite trade unionist, lived there for 30 years, was previous candidate in 2015 when she lost to Stewart Jackson by 2000 votes.
>
>
>
> Edit: she was a city councillor until 2016 I think.
>
> Thanks. Sounds like a good candidate. I think it’s 50/50 between Lab and Brexit Party, who also have a good candidate.
>
> I think the way it goes will depend a lot on the fallout from the EU elections a couple of weeks before. One or other party will be seen as in the ascendancy, and that party will likely win in Peterborough.
Just looked him up, he does look like a strong candidate also. I think the fact that Labour are an established party in the area, the Tories may take votes from Brexit party and the fact that Labour were involved in the recall petition make Labour slight favourites.
> Britain's super rich are preparing to flee the country at the prospect of a Corbyn government taking almost £1 trillion with them, many are also making plans to move assets and businesses abroad
>
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-wealthy-prepare-to-flee-corbyn-britain-9l25snfx0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0ppnYXk715WUJTL2I3ym3kydMh1VPw4l1dSVyrTMu2PrRGSLusIN0fX5U#Echobox=1557618340
_____________________________________________________________________________
Wow "Of those prepared to talk, one in 10 said they were making plans to protect themselves from hard-left tax increases".
So nine in 10 are not making plans.
It is the reporting that is a bit hysterical. I don't think the wealthy are.
Betting PostF1: a quartet of tips (for those interested, I'm just backing with half-stakes):
Verstappen, podium, 2.6
Hamilton, lead lap 1, 3.5
Raikkonen to beat Ricciardo, 2.75
Norris, winner without the big 6, 17 (each way)
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/05/spain-pre-race-2019.html
Verstappen was essentially on pace with Ferrari in qualifying so should have a good chance of a podium.
At every race bar one, which was close, I think this season has seen the pole-sitter passed off the line every time.
Ricciardo has a 75% DNF record and Raikkonen a 100% finishing record. So 2.75 on the Finn 'winning' seems generous.
As for Norris, ahead of him he has the Haas cars, which tend to go backwards, and Kvyat, who's had a somewhat patchy season. So 17 looks a bit long.
Also, for those who backed my early 36 suggestion on Verstappen to win, I'd advocate a hedge at around 3. It's looking very much like a Mercedes race, but if they tangle with one another or suffer misfortune, Verstappen's odds will plummet.
> > @Roger said:
> > Those voting for the Brexit Party should remember that they're not just voting for Brexit but also for a party led by Farage. Even if I was a Brexiteer that would be a deal breaker. This is a man in Trump's pocket who regularly appears on far right chat shows in the US supporting overt racism and damning everything British
>
> Sounding like the core Project Fear Farage that'll be given mass coverage over the next 2 weeks.
I don't think it's project fear to point out the difference between being a Leaver and being a Faragist. It was a fig leaf at the Refendum that Farage was part of 'Grassroots Out' and not the official 'Leave UK'. Even some Labour supporters hid behind it. Well not this time. They now have to be out and proud.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Britain's super rich are preparing to flee the country at the prospect of a Corbyn government taking almost £1 trillion with them, many are also making plans to move assets and businesses abroad
> >
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-wealthy-prepare-to-flee-corbyn-britain-9l25snfx0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0ppnYXk715WUJTL2I3ym3kydMh1VPw4l1dSVyrTMu2PrRGSLusIN0fX5U#Echobox=1557618340
>
> Not very patriotic, are they?
They may find that offshore trusts and non Dom status and the like don't work quite as well as they used to under a Corbyn government.
> Labour, in absolubte % terms in a poor position (Also going backwards at the locals in opposition...)- but it's starting to look absolubtely existential for the Tories.
Absolutely, and in all the noise everyone is ignoring or failing to notice how dismal Labour's vote share is in the latest polls.
We might win an overall majority on 27% of the vote, but it isn't a great strategy to aim for such a result.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Britain's super rich are preparing to flee the country at the prospect of a Corbyn government taking almost £1 trillion with them, many are also making plans to move assets and businesses abroad
> >
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-wealthy-prepare-to-flee-corbyn-britain-9l25snfx0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0ppnYXk715WUJTL2I3ym3kydMh1VPw4l1dSVyrTMu2PrRGSLusIN0fX5U#Echobox=1557618340
>
> _____________________________________________________________________________
>
> Wow "Of those prepared to talk, one in 10 said they were making plans to protect themselves from hard-left tax increases".
>
> So nine in 10 are not making plans.
>
> It is the reporting that is a bit hysterical. I don't think the wealthy are.
It's Brexit not Corbyn. The Times gets it wrong as usual
I pointed that out at the time, likewise when some were tittering with glee following Obama's 'back of the queue' comment.
You don't persuade people by calling them a basket of deplorables.
"Hey, idiot! Why aren't you voting for me?"
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > Britain's super rich are preparing to flee the country at the prospect of a Corbyn government taking almost £1 trillion with them, many are also making plans to move assets and businesses abroad
> > >
> > >
> > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-wealthy-prepare-to-flee-corbyn-britain-9l25snfx0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0ppnYXk715WUJTL2I3ym3kydMh1VPw4l1dSVyrTMu2PrRGSLusIN0fX5U#Echobox=1557618340
> >
> > _____________________________________________________________________________
> >
> > Wow "Of those prepared to talk, one in 10 said they were making plans to protect themselves from hard-left tax increases".
> >
> > So nine in 10 are not making plans.
> >
> > It is the reporting that is a bit hysterical. I don't think the wealthy are.
>
> It's Brexit not Corbyn. The Times gets it wrong as usual
There was a [pice yesterday on the Guardian website about Lachlan Murdoch's politics and how is much more aggressively Right than his father.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > Britain's super rich are preparing to flee the country at the prospect of a Corbyn government taking almost £1 trillion with them, many are also making plans to move assets and businesses abroad
> > >
> > >
> > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-wealthy-prepare-to-flee-corbyn-britain-9l25snfx0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0ppnYXk715WUJTL2I3ym3kydMh1VPw4l1dSVyrTMu2PrRGSLusIN0fX5U#Echobox=1557618340
> >
> > Not very patriotic, are they?
> >
> > Of course not, they are very likely to have voted to remain in the EU too.
>
> The Second Law of Thermodynamics is also inconvenient. But there are constraints on politics other than the votes in the ballot boxes.
Ah yes, but where would we be without friction?
> Mr. P, that term wasn't smart when Cameron tried it before, and isn't very clever now.
>
> I pointed that out at the time, likewise when some were tittering with glee following Obama's 'back of the queue' comment.
>
> You don't persuade people by calling them a basket of deplorables.
>
> "Hey, idiot! Why aren't you voting for me?"
Indeed, if we are not capable of persuading people why no deal Brexit is so terrible, and do not even try to, instead just ridicule those who do believe in it, then the country will deserve its fate.
I can see it now; the Anti Faragists, who were getting excited about the revoke petition 6 weeks ago, claiming victory as the MPs vote through the deal, without realising they’ve been duped.
> Britain's super rich are preparing to flee the country at the prospect of a Corbyn government taking almost £1 trillion with them, many are also making plans to move assets and businesses abroad
>
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-wealthy-prepare-to-flee-corbyn-britain-9l25snfx0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0ppnYXk715WUJTL2I3ym3kydMh1VPw4l1dSVyrTMu2PrRGSLusIN0fX5U#Echobox=1557618340
This sort of story gets trotted out every time there is a GE, from both sides. The lefty luvvies and right wing capitalists are still here leeching off us.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Britain's super rich are preparing to flee the country at the prospect of a Corbyn government taking almost £1 trillion with them, many are also making plans to move assets and businesses abroad
> >
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-wealthy-prepare-to-flee-corbyn-britain-9l25snfx0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0ppnYXk715WUJTL2I3ym3kydMh1VPw4l1dSVyrTMu2PrRGSLusIN0fX5U#Echobox=1557618340
>
> _____________________________________________________________________________
>
> Wow "Of those prepared to talk, one in 10 said they were making plans to protect themselves from hard-left tax increases".
>
> So nine in 10 are not making plans.
>
> It is the reporting that is a bit hysterical. I don't think the wealthy are.
One in 10 of those prepared to talk. At a guess 9/10 would have said mind your own business! So perhaps 1 in a 100 are making plans to protect themselves - that does not mean fleeing the country! Most will move some money offshore, set up trusts, change their asset allocations etc. It might be 1 in a 1000 fleeting the country. A nonsense story.
> Seems to me that talk of PM Farage and the panicky reverse expectation management over how the Brexit Party will do is their aim rather than actual power. If enough MPs vote for the withdrawal deal next time because they fear Farage and Co will win their seats off them, it will be job done.
>
> I can see it now; the Anti Faragists, who were getting excited about the revoke petition 6 weeks ago, claiming victory as the MPs vote through the deal, without realising they’ve been duped.
Interesting - so Farage secretly supports the WA?
> Mr. Stopper, *cough* bloody rich people, paying a disproportionately high amount of tax.
I suppose it depends on how they got rich in the first place. Have you seen who's on that rich list?
> Seems to me that talk of PM Farage and the panicky reverse expectation management over how the Brexit Party will do is their aim rather than actual power. If enough MPs vote for the withdrawal deal next time because they fear Farage and Co will win their seats off them, it will be job done.
>
> I can see it now; the Anti Faragists, who were getting excited about the revoke petition 6 weeks ago, claiming victory as the MPs vote through the deal, without realising they’ve been duped.
Farage is against the withdrawal agreement? I would definitely be an anti no-dealer, not sure how I am getting duped if something he doesnt support and I can accept is passed?
I don't think it will pass by the way, it needed Labour votes once the ERG had gone too far in demonising it and the Tory/Brexit vote split will make it very hard for Labour to vote for the WA.
And politicians telling the truth is something sadly lacking in our current discourse.
I repeat the question above, why are Farage's Little Englanders not proud of it?
> > @isam said:
>
> > Seems to me that talk of PM Farage and the panicky reverse expectation management over how the Brexit Party will do is their aim rather than actual power. If enough MPs vote for the withdrawal deal next time because they fear Farage and Co will win their seats off them, it will be job done.
>
> >
>
> > I can see it now; the Anti Faragists, who were getting excited about the revoke petition 6 weeks ago, claiming victory as the MPs vote through the deal, without realising they’ve been duped.
>
>
>
> Interesting - so Farage secretly supports the WA?
>
> I doubt it, but for those who just want Brexit delivered, his party putting the frighteners on those who thought they could legislate their worst nightmare (no deal) away while they connived to remain, is just what is needed.
I’d have thought a party advocating a No Deal Brexit winning most votes on 23rd May would embolden the ERG and the rest of the Tory No Dealers.
Insulting people is rarely a way to persuade them. And then you ask why they aren't 'out and proud'. As if you didn't just insult them for holding the view you're then wondering about them perhaps not wanting publicly known.
> Seems to me that talk of PM Farage and the panicky reverse expectation management over how the Brexit Party will do is their aim rather than actual power. If enough MPs vote for the withdrawal deal next time because they fear Farage and Co will win their seats off them, it will be job done.
>
> I can see it now; the Anti Faragists, who were getting excited about the revoke petition 6 weeks ago, claiming victory as the MPs vote through the deal, without realising they’ve been duped.
>
> Yes, an emphatic win for the BP in the Euros will be a vote for clarity. It will put paid to the People's Vote idea and leave a choice between the May-Barnier deal and no-deal, both of which are clear exit routes.
Good luck with that!
> > @isam said:
> > > @isam said:
> >
> > > Seems to me that talk of PM Farage and the panicky reverse expectation management over how the Brexit Party will do is their aim rather than actual power. If enough MPs vote for the withdrawal deal next time because they fear Farage and Co will win their seats off them, it will be job done.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I can see it now; the Anti Faragists, who were getting excited about the revoke petition 6 weeks ago, claiming victory as the MPs vote through the deal, without realising they’ve been duped.
> >
> >
> >
> > Interesting - so Farage secretly supports the WA?
> >
> > I doubt it, but for those who just want Brexit delivered, his party putting the frighteners on those who thought they could legislate their worst nightmare (no deal) away while they connived to remain, is just what is needed.
>
> I’d have thought a party advocating a No Deal Brexit winning most votes on 23rd May would embolden the ERG and the rest of the Tory No Dealers.
Indeed, and at the same time make it a strategic mistake for Labour to vote for the WA, even if May gave them everything they wanted.
The kids managed to remove the punishment of detention for not doing their homework, and now few of them bother doing it. All of a sudden there’s a real threat of the cane being reintroduced
> FPT: If ChangeUK get less than UKIP I can't see how they can continue as a party.
>
> At this stage of a party performing so far below expectations, usually the internal recriminations start (case in point: Labour under early Corbyn, Tories since 2017).
>
> That is particularly likely in the case of CUK, a party formed by people who can’t get on with others (....that’s why they quit their previous parties) and from opposing traditions (Soubry and Gapes in the same party). And presumably with increasingly restive backers wondering where their money has gone.
>
> I may be wrong, but I expect CUK to start tearing itself apart unless there’s a sudden recovery.
Assuming the Liberal Democrats come third, or higher, in the Euro elections, the smart thing for them to do would be to find a face-saving way to join the Liberal Democrats as a group.
Why do you think it's an insult?
If they were proud of it, they wouldn't be insulted by it.
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > FPT: If ChangeUK get less than UKIP I can't see how they can continue as a party.
> >
> > At this stage of a party performing so far below expectations, usually the internal recriminations start (case in point: Labour under early Corbyn, Tories since 2017).
> >
> > That is particularly likely in the case of CUK, a party formed by people who can’t get on with others (....that’s why they quit their previous parties) and from opposing traditions (Soubry and Gapes in the same party). And presumably with increasingly restive backers wondering where their money has gone.
> >
> > I may be wrong, but I expect CUK to start tearing itself apart unless there’s a sudden recovery.
>
> Assuming the Liberal Democrats come third, or higher, in the Euro elections, the smart thing for them to do would be to find a face-saving way to join the Liberal Democrats as a group.
The LibDems should be actively asking them to join. CUK need to explain what they are for and how it is different or get off the stage.
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @isam said:
>
> >
>
> > > Seems to me that talk of PM Farage and the panicky reverse expectation management over how the Brexit Party will do is their aim rather than actual power. If enough MPs vote for the withdrawal deal next time because they fear Farage and Co will win their seats off them, it will be job done.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > I can see it now; the Anti Faragists, who were getting excited about the revoke petition 6 weeks ago, claiming victory as the MPs vote through the deal, without realising they’ve been duped.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Interesting - so Farage secretly supports the WA?
>
> >
>
> > I doubt it, but for those who just want Brexit delivered, his party putting the frighteners on those who thought they could legislate their worst nightmare (no deal) away while they connived to remain, is just what is needed.
>
>
>
> I’d have thought a party advocating a No Deal Brexit winning most votes on 23rd May would embolden the ERG and the rest of the Tory No Dealers.
>
> Yes it would also give the ultra remainers notice that the worst option is no longer Mays deal but No deal, which might wake them up to the fact they promised to respect the vote to leave.
>
> The kids managed to remove the punishment of detention for not doing their homework, and now few of them bother doing it. All of a sudden there’s a real threat of the cane being reintroduced.
The polls have told us for a while that 30% to 35% of voters back a No Deal Brexit. The election looks likely to confirm that, so showing a majority agrees that MPs are right to rule a No Deal Brexit out.
20 of them jumping ship would be entertaining.
However I think they will all stay so that they can influence the Tory leadership election. Then jump if one of their own doesn't get it.
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @isam said:
>
> >
>
> > > Seems to me that talk of PM Farage and the panicky reverse expectation management over how the Brexit Party will do is their aim rather than actual power. If enough MPs vote for the withdrawal deal next time because they fear Farage and Co will win their seats off them, it will be job done.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > I can see it now; the Anti Faragists, who were getting excited about the revoke petition 6 weeks ago, claiming victory as the MPs vote through the deal, without realising they’ve been duped.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Interesting - so Farage secretly supports the WA?
>
> >
>
> > I doubt it, but for those who just want Brexit delivered, his party putting the frighteners on those who thought they could legislate their worst nightmare (no deal) away while they connived to remain, is just what is needed.
>
>
>
> I’d have thought a party advocating a No Deal Brexit winning most votes on 23rd May would embolden the ERG and the rest of the Tory No Dealers.
>
> Yes it would also give the ultra remainers notice that the worst option is no longer Mays deal but No deal, which might wake them up to the fact they promised to respect the vote to leave.
>
> The kids managed to remove the punishment of detention for not doing their homework, and now few of them bother doing it. All of a sudden there’s a real threat of the cane being reintroduced
If the MPs were all acting independently you might be right. But the numbers are that the Tory MPs who blocked it were overwhelmingly no-dealers, with just a handful of remainers. Switching the Tory remainers makes no difference.
Labour, despite being deeply unpopular with many, have found themselves in a weird situation where they might even get a majority with 25-30% of the vote - why would they do something to change that situation?
> Mr. P, it's dumb.
>
> Insulting people is rarely a way to persuade them. And then you ask why they aren't 'out and proud'. As if you didn't just insult them for holding the view you're then wondering about them perhaps not wanting publicly known.
>
> Ummm, that's the point.
>
> Why do you think it's an insult?
>
> If they were proud of it, they wouldn't be insulted by it.
I'm English. I'm not insulted or ashamed by being identified as English. It depends on how you view England. Your view seems to be that it's something to be ashamed of to be English. You tie up being English with racism, the empire, Farage, UKIP and "gammons in blazers". That's you being a c***, mind. My England isn't like that.
Ruling no deal Brexit out gave them licence to kick the can down the road, campaign for a 2nd referendum before we’ve left, or revoke. That’s why it needs to be there, and The Brexit Party have replaced it.
2 months ago, I’d say it was quite likely we’d have a 2nd ref before we left, or would revoke, and the best a leaver could hope for was Mays Deal. It could be the case that soon the worst it could be is Mays Deal, with revoke and 2nd ref a distant memory.
He also sounds a bit panicky and not really helping his cause
The extent to which he would be a personal drag on a Brexit type vote is significantly diminished. It isn't 2014.