> > There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving.
> >
> > The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers.
> >
> > It was entirely predictable that they would be used in exactly the way that Farage is using them.
> >
> > I expect it will set a new grim record for Labour & Tories in a National election. It serves Labour, the Tories and the EU right.
>
> Just how do you think the EU could waive the requirement to hold the election?
Well, err .. the EU rules are not immutable, They are not the Laws of the Universe.
They could have changed the rules.
The EU acts to give its citizens votes. The oft-repeated claim by Leavers that the EU repeatedly asks voters to vote again relies on this fact. Given that (IIUC)...
a) the UK is still in the EU a) the UK has asked for two extensions to remain in the EU b) the UK has not asked for the election to be waived c) the UK has not altered the UK law requiring it to be held,
...it is unrealistic to expect that they would not be held.
I have noted before the propensity of Leavers to blame the EU for everything, and specifically the propensity to blame the EU for things that are the UK's responsibility and which the UK has the power to change. I think I will be noting it again for many times to come...
> @viewcode said: > > I have noted before the propensity of Leavers to blame the EU for everything, and specifically the propensity to blame the EU for things that are the UK's responsibility and which the UK has the power to change. I think I will be noting it again for many times to come...
My understanding is that they are being held at the insistence of the EU.
Are you suggesting that Incompetent Theresa is holding them at her own behest?
> @stodge said: > I really don't believe that voters take EU elections sufficiently seriously for any effects to be existential. Attitudes towards them verge on the frivolous and turnout may well not exceed what we saw for the Local Elections on 2nd May - circa 35%. > > Just for reference the numbers last time were UKIP 26.6% Labour 24.4% Conservative 23.1% Greens 6.9% LD 6.7% so that's our starting position. 35.9% turnout last time - I suspect it will be higher this time. > > In and of itself, the EU elections aren't hugely significant - as others have said, a poor 2014 performance didn't stop the Conservatives winning a majority in 2015 - indeed, the 2014 EU election combined UKIP/CON vote share of 49.7% presaged a 2015 GE CON/UKIP share of 49.4% so the writing was on the wall for both Labour and the LDs in 2014 let alone later. > > The BP/CON/UKIP share tonight is 47% with Opinium and 42% with Com Res. The difference between then and now is the Conservatives have no way of shooting the Farage fox and even passing the WA may not be enough. Second, Peterborough provides a huge chance for an extra boost for BP getting their first MP elected (just as Shirley Williams winning Crosby galvanised the SDP). > > It looks then like a long hot summer of intrigue for the Conservatives who, perhaps like their counterparts in the mid 90s, may realise the clock is ticking toward their demise. The Conservative Party Conference is going to be interesting I think so while the EU set may be not significant in isolation it may well set in motion events which will be of much greater significance.
It was 35.9% in 2014 but that was because the EU elections were combined with the Local Elections - as had been the case since 1999. The last EU elections to take place without that prop - ie 1999 - saw turnout at just 24%. It will almost cerainly exceed that this time , but I am not sure it will reach 35.9%.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > > You’re more interesting when you’re raving nonsensically about Welsh vassalage and blaming poverty on the invention of the flat white. > > --- > Almost a quarter of the Welsh population live in poverty. > > "Up in our Blaenau Gwent some young people came to our provision and they had no shoes on, they were dirty, they hadn't eaten. They eat a pack of Doritos to last them a day" > > Let's make Fun of them as we sip our Flats & chortle ?
I'm in a London suburb and we have homeless people living in subways and under flyovers. The streets of London are not all paved with gold. As Nigel Farage and Chuka Umunna agree, our politics is broken, but this is the proof, not Brexit.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > > > > You’re more interesting when you’re raving nonsensically about Welsh vassalage and blaming poverty on the invention of the flat white. > > > > --- > > Almost a quarter of the Welsh population live in poverty. > > > > "Up in our Blaenau Gwent some young people came to our provision and they had no shoes on, they were dirty, they hadn't eaten. They eat a pack of Doritos to last them a day" > > > > Let's make Fun of them as we sip our Flats & chortle ? > > I'm in a London suburb and we have homeless people living in subways and under flyovers. The streets of London are not all paved with gold. As Nigel Farage and Chuka Umunna agree, our politics is broken, but this is the proof, not Brexit. >
Spot on. The same is true in Newcastle. We could do something inside the EU. We could outside. Neither Farage nor Chuka give a toss.
> I have noted before the propensity of Leavers to blame the EU for everything, and specifically the propensity to blame the EU for things that are the UK's responsibility and which the UK has the power to change. I think I will be noting it again for many times to come...
My understanding is that they are being held at the insistence of the EU.
Are you suggesting that Incompetent Theresa is holding them at her own behest?
Technically I am, oddly enough. The law governing the holding of the election is a UK law. I assume if she had decided to repeal it the EU would have objected (and presumably not granted the extension), but ultimately it is a UK decision.
The problem is that we are currently trying to do two things simultaneously: leave the EU but continue to act as if we are still in it. Everything (the WA, the Brexit party, the extensions) derives from that. This rather bizarre situation will continue until there is a new Parliament or the EU declines a further extension or a deal/nodeal is agreed. When that will happen is not known to me...
> @Sean_F said: > > @RobD said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > > The thing with Change UK is, if they do 'merge' with the Lib Dems, there isn't going to be a change of name this time around surely. Change UK have no cards. > > > > > > They have some interesting MPs, unlike the Lib Dem’s today. > > > > Who may be replaced by actual Lib Dems at the next election (e.g., Wollaston's seat) > > The local elections, as expected, had huge leads for Lib Dems and Greens in Totnes and the Dart Valley, while the Conservatives fought back along the coast. One Remain candidate would make it a very tight contest, but two would result in an easy Conservative win.
> @isam said: > > @DoubleD said: > > > UKIP got 26.6% of Euro vote in 2014. For credibility, Brexit party needs to beat that. Really need 30-35% to make a splash. There is time for that, without doubt. > > > > They also need to get more votes than the revoke petition. > > Panic on the threads of PB, panic on remainer twitter feeds, I wonder to myself...
They are getting their excuses in early.
We've already had the nutty "where did you get my mum's address from" by Codswallop.
And the million Russian twitter bots nonsense from people who should know better. How many more times do we need to tell them? When will they get the message?
Comments
The peasants are revolting.
>
> I have noted before the propensity of Leavers to blame the EU for everything, and specifically the propensity to blame the EU for things that are the UK's responsibility and which the UK has the power to change. I think I will be noting it again for many times to come...
My understanding is that they are being held at the insistence of the EU.
Are you suggesting that Incompetent Theresa is holding them at her own behest?
> I really don't believe that voters take EU elections sufficiently seriously for any effects to be existential. Attitudes towards them verge on the frivolous and turnout may well not exceed what we saw for the Local Elections on 2nd May - circa 35%.
>
> Just for reference the numbers last time were UKIP 26.6% Labour 24.4% Conservative 23.1% Greens 6.9% LD 6.7% so that's our starting position. 35.9% turnout last time - I suspect it will be higher this time.
>
> In and of itself, the EU elections aren't hugely significant - as others have said, a poor 2014 performance didn't stop the Conservatives winning a majority in 2015 - indeed, the 2014 EU election combined UKIP/CON vote share of 49.7% presaged a 2015 GE CON/UKIP share of 49.4% so the writing was on the wall for both Labour and the LDs in 2014 let alone later.
>
> The BP/CON/UKIP share tonight is 47% with Opinium and 42% with Com Res. The difference between then and now is the Conservatives have no way of shooting the Farage fox and even passing the WA may not be enough. Second, Peterborough provides a huge chance for an extra boost for BP getting their first MP elected (just as Shirley Williams winning Crosby galvanised the SDP).
>
> It looks then like a long hot summer of intrigue for the Conservatives who, perhaps like their counterparts in the mid 90s, may realise the clock is ticking toward their demise. The Conservative Party Conference is going to be interesting I think so while the EU set may be not significant in isolation it may well set in motion events which will be of much greater significance.
It was 35.9% in 2014 but that was because the EU elections were combined with the Local Elections - as had been the case since 1999. The last EU elections to take place without that prop - ie 1999 - saw turnout at just 24%. It will almost cerainly exceed that this time , but I am not sure it will reach 35.9%.
> > @Gardenwalker said:
> >
> > You’re more interesting when you’re raving nonsensically about Welsh vassalage and blaming poverty on the invention of the flat white.
>
> ---
> Almost a quarter of the Welsh population live in poverty.
>
> "Up in our Blaenau Gwent some young people came to our provision and they had no shoes on, they were dirty, they hadn't eaten. They eat a pack of Doritos to last them a day"
>
> Let's make Fun of them as we sip our Flats & chortle ?
I'm in a London suburb and we have homeless people living in subways and under flyovers. The streets of London are not all paved with gold. As Nigel Farage and Chuka Umunna agree, our politics is broken, but this is the proof, not Brexit.
> If ChangeUK get less than UKIP I can't see how they can continue as a party.
ChangeUK don't even have any amusing Youtube channels between the lot of them.
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > @Gardenwalker said:
> > >
> > > You’re more interesting when you’re raving nonsensically about Welsh vassalage and blaming poverty on the invention of the flat white.
> >
> > ---
> > Almost a quarter of the Welsh population live in poverty.
> >
> > "Up in our Blaenau Gwent some young people came to our provision and they had no shoes on, they were dirty, they hadn't eaten. They eat a pack of Doritos to last them a day"
> >
> > Let's make Fun of them as we sip our Flats & chortle ?
>
> I'm in a London suburb and we have homeless people living in subways and under flyovers. The streets of London are not all paved with gold. As Nigel Farage and Chuka Umunna agree, our politics is broken, but this is the proof, not Brexit.
>
Spot on. The same is true in Newcastle. We could do something inside the EU. We could outside.
Neither Farage nor Chuka give a toss.
The problem is that we are currently trying to do two things simultaneously: leave the EU but continue to act as if we are still in it. Everything (the WA, the Brexit party, the extensions) derives from that. This rather bizarre situation will continue until there is a new Parliament or the EU declines a further extension or a deal/nodeal is agreed. When that will happen is not known to me...
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> > > > The thing with Change UK is, if they do 'merge' with the Lib Dems, there isn't going to be a change of name this time around surely. Change UK have no cards.
> > >
> > > They have some interesting MPs, unlike the Lib Dem’s today.
> >
> > Who may be replaced by actual Lib Dems at the next election (e.g., Wollaston's seat)
>
> The local elections, as expected, had huge leads for Lib Dems and Greens in Totnes and the Dart Valley, while the Conservatives fought back along the coast. One Remain candidate would make it a very tight contest, but two would result in an easy Conservative win.
Have I mentioned how much I like splitters?
https://youtu.be/JY4X7qjWSHw
> > @DoubleD said:
>
> > UKIP got 26.6% of Euro vote in 2014. For credibility, Brexit party needs to beat that. Really need 30-35% to make a splash. There is time for that, without doubt.
>
>
>
> They also need to get more votes than the revoke petition.
>
> Panic on the threads of PB, panic on remainer twitter feeds, I wonder to myself...
They are getting their excuses in early.
We've already had the nutty "where did you get my mum's address from" by Codswallop.
And the million Russian twitter bots nonsense from people who should know better. How many more times do we need to tell them? When will they get the message?
> What are the Tories for if they are no longer about self preservation?
Unclear at the moment.