> @TheScreamingEagles said: > Attention. Update on the header doesn't show the Comres...it merely repeats the Opinium from earlier. > > Cheers, I've fixed that now.
Thanks TSE.
Ladbrokes now going 7/4 about Tories <10% in the Euros. I mention this because I know your natural modesty prevents you from pointing out you recommended this bet when it was 12/1.
Btw, are you going to Madrid? And have you sobered up from Holland yet?
UKIP got 26.6% of Euro vote in 2014. For credibility, Brexit party needs to beat that. Really need 30-35% to make a splash. There is time for that, without doubt.
> @DoubleD said: > UKIP got 26.6% of Euro vote in 2014. For credibility, Brexit party needs to beat that. Really need 30-35% to make a splash. There is time for that, without doubt.
They also need to get more votes than the revoke petition.
> Attention. Update on the header doesn't show the Comres...it merely repeats the Opinium from earlier.
>
> Cheers, I've fixed that now.
Thanks TSE.
Ladbrokes now going 7/4 about Tories <10% in the Euros. I mention this because I know your natural modesty prevents you from pointing out you recommended this bet when it was 12/1.
Btw, are you going to Madrid? And have you sobered up from Holland yet?
Atb, a grateful PtP.
In a break with tradition, my morning thread mentions by 12/1 tip.
I'm off to Madrid, I booked my hotel room and travel last month, I'm still on a high from Tuesday night.
Those wretched Con voters - they keep telling the cabinet what they want but they won’t just shut up and vote for awful May and her awful deal. They must be racists or little Englanders.
They’ll come back for a Rudd- Hammond dream team won’t they ?
> @Jonathan said: > > @DoubleD said: > > UKIP got 26.6% of Euro vote in 2014. For credibility, Brexit party needs to beat that. Really need 30-35% to make a splash. There is time for that, without doubt. > > They also need to get more votes than the revoke petition.
> @stodge said: > Evening all > > Some extraordinary numbers - it's probably been 20 years or more since the Conservatives polled sub 20% in an opinion poll (at the height of New Labour). The LDs breaking towards 15% having not seen levels like that for years. > > The journey from two years ago has been remarkable - I look forward to the Farage-Moran PMQs starting in 2022 (!). > > The Conservatives (and Labour too) are facing one of the more serious existential threats to their dominance and arguably the most significant since the emergence of the SDP. There is the obvious observation that in times of crisis the two parties may find they have much more in common than they thought - self-preservation will do that. > > What will happen? I genuinely don't know - Peterborough is now more significant than might otherwise have been the case and I suspect Party Conference season may be the time to lay in substantial supplies of Fortnum & Mason popcorn.
I really don't believe that voters take EU elections sufficiently seriously for any effects to be existential. Attitudes towards them verge on the frivolous and turnout may well not exceed what we saw for the Local Elections on 2nd May - circa 35%.
@brokenwheel. Apologies, my IPad can't cope with the all new quoting system. Of course that is true. However, that is not enough for Farage to present an existential threat to Labour. He can damage them, sure, but not terminally like the Tories. There simply aren't enough Labour Leavers to knock them out of second place. The existential danger for Labour is that a shift to an anti-Farage pro-Remain bloc occurs as a counterweight. Obviously, one solution is for Labour to simply become that pro-Remain Party. Unfortunately, they are led by Corbyn.
> UKIP got 26.6% of Euro vote in 2014. For credibility, Brexit party needs to beat that. Really need 30-35% to make a splash. There is time for that, without doubt.
They also need to get more votes than the revoke petition.
Panic on the threads of PB, panic on remainer twitter feeds, I wonder to myself...
> @stodge said: > Evening all > > Some extraordinary numbers - it's probably been 20 years or more since the Conservatives polled sub 20% in an opinion poll (at the height of New Labour). The LDs breaking towards 15% having not seen levels like that for years. > > The journey from two years ago has been remarkable - I look forward to the Farage-Moran PMQs starting in 2022 (!). > > The Conservatives (and Labour too) are facing one of the more serious existential threats to their dominance and arguably the most significant since the emergence of the SDP. There is the obvious observation that in times of crisis the two parties may find they have much more in common than they thought - self-preservation will do that. > > What will happen? I genuinely don't know - Peterborough is now more significant than might otherwise have been the case and I suspect Party Conference season may be the time to lay in substantial supplies of Fortnum & Mason popcorn.
I cannot recall the Tories going below 20% even in the mid 90s.
> UKIP got 26.6% of Euro vote in 2014. For credibility, Brexit party needs to beat that. Really need 30-35% to make a splash. There is time for that, without doubt.
They also need to get more votes than the revoke petition.
Panic on the threads of PB, panic on remainer twitter feeds, I wonder to myself...
The goal posts are moving so fast that they will soon be airborne.
> UKIP got 26.6% of Euro vote in 2014. For credibility, Brexit party needs to beat that. Really need 30-35% to make a splash. There is time for that, without doubt.
They also need to get more votes than the revoke petition.
Panic on the threads of PB, panic on remainer twitter feeds, I wonder to myself...
The goal posts are moving so fast that they will soon be airborne.
Obviously if TBP piss the Euros it will mean nothing if they don’t get 50% in Peterborough
After a decade or more of uninterrupted relative popularity, the Conservatives are discovering the hard way what unpopularity means. Since the arrival of Cameron I can only think of a brief spell around 2011-12 when the Conservatives haven't been doing well and for long periods they have enjoyed poll numbers above 40%.
The YouGov Sunday Times numbers two years ago this weekend were CON 49% LAB 31% LD 9% UKIP 3% so at least one of the numbers is consistent.
The Gordian Knot for the Conservatives is May has said publicly she will leave once Brexit has been agreed but as Brexit can't be agreed at present she won't resign. As no other mechanism exists for her to be removed she stays. Her Cabinet know one thing - they might be asked to serve in a Cabinet led by someone else sitting round the table and they would be prepared to do so whereas if Boris or Raab takes over they would be gone.
Ultimately, it comes back to the first law of politics - if you don't hang together, you'll all hang separately.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > Attention. Update on the header doesn't show the Comres...it merely repeats the Opinium from earlier. > > > > > > Cheers, I've fixed that now. > > > > Thanks TSE. > > > > Ladbrokes now going 7/4 about Tories <10% in the Euros. I mention this because I know your natural modesty prevents you from pointing out you recommended this bet when it was 12/1. > > > > Btw, are you going to Madrid? And have you sobered up from Holland yet? > > > > Atb, a grateful PtP. > > In a break with tradition, my morning thread mentions by 12/1 tip. > > I'm off to Madrid, I booked my hotel room and travel last month, I'm still on a high from Tuesday night.
> @thecommissioner said: > > @DoubleD said: > > amazing thing is that CCHQ and PM cannot see it. Can't see they are the problem. Incredible. > > So, what do you think will change in the existing parliament if May goes?
Nothing, the impasse will continue whoever is Tory leader. The local and Euro elections have led to all sides becoming more convinced that they are right and they should not give an inch to their opponents. It's unlikely that there will be any progress until after the next general election, and it's unlikely that the next general election will be before 2022.
The only possible caveat to this is that the EU might deny the UK further A50 extensions and force a no deal but that is unlikely.
> @GIN1138 said: > I'm thinking very seriously about paying my £25 to join the Brexit Party (and I've never been a member of a political party before) > > That's what three years of Theresa May has done to me!
You do that. Don't expect any input or say in their policies though.
> @dixiedean said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > I'm thinking very seriously about paying my £25 to join the Brexit Party (and I've never been a member of a political party before) > > > > That's what three years of Theresa May has done to me! > > You do that. Don't expect any input or say in their policies though.
Don't think I'd really want to have "input" that way anyway. It's more about sending a message I think...
I really don't believe that voters take EU elections sufficiently seriously for any effects to be existential. Attitudes towards them verge on the frivolous and turnout may well not exceed what we saw for the Local Elections on 2nd May - circa 35%.
Just for reference the numbers last time were UKIP 26.6% Labour 24.4% Conservative 23.1% Greens 6.9% LD 6.7% so that's our starting position. 35.9% turnout last time - I suspect it will be higher this time.
In and of itself, the EU elections aren't hugely significant - as others have said, a poor 2014 performance didn't stop the Conservatives winning a majority in 2015 - indeed, the 2014 EU election combined UKIP/CON vote share of 49.7% presaged a 2015 GE CON/UKIP share of 49.4% so the writing was on the wall for both Labour and the LDs in 2014 let alone later.
The BP/CON/UKIP share tonight is 47% with Opinium and 42% with Com Res. The difference between then and now is the Conservatives have no way of shooting the Farage fox and even passing the WA may not be enough. Second, Peterborough provides a huge chance for an extra boost for BP getting their first MP elected (just as Shirley Williams winning Crosby galvanised the SDP).
It looks then like a long hot summer of intrigue for the Conservatives who, perhaps like their counterparts in the mid 90s, may realise the clock is ticking toward their demise. The Conservative Party Conference is going to be interesting I think so while the EU set may be not significant in isolation it may well set in motion events which will be of much greater significance.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > I'm thinking very seriously about paying my £25 to join the Brexit Party (and I've never been a member of a political party before) > > > > > > That's what three years of Theresa May has done to me! > > > > You do that. Don't expect any input or say in their policies though. > > Don't think I'd really want to have "input" that way anyway. It's more about sending a message I think...
These figures should be sufficient motivation for the 1922 committee to change the rules, and force T May out.
If they don't they are signing their own death warrant, She has become, rightly or wrongly, the symbol of everything the people abhor about Brexit. She repels Remainers and she frustrates or outrages Leavers, and she annoys everyone else. She is a shit campaigner and she can't negotiate her way out of an empty room with seventy eight open doors.
What is the point of her? To soak up the anger before she goes? She's done that. Now the anger is starting to poison the entire Tory party. She IS the problem.
Moreover, things can hardly get worse if she quits. They can only get better, or stay the same, so there is nothing to lose. Let her be gone.
> @thecommissioner said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > ComRes also have a European elections poll which has it much closer for first place. > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127305223171710976 > > > > > > > > Comres polled an 8 point win for Remain. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Yet Remain Parties in this poll 28% > > > Soft BREXIT Parties on 38% > > > Hard BREXIT on 30% > > > > Most of the Labour and Tory vote shares are likely to be Remain inclined - the strong Leavers will surely have switched to Brexit. > > The growth in CUK etc are Remain switchers from Tories/Labour. > > Hard remain is still sub 30% and that's from a pollster than was out by a huge amount in 2016. > > >
Those numbers do not include the SNP or PC, so you probably need to add another 5% to the Remain total.
> @Byronic said: > These figures should be sufficient motivation for the 1922 committee to change the rules, and force T May out. > > If they don't they are signing their own death warrant, She has become, rightly or wrongly, the symbol of everything the people abhor about Brexit. She repels Remainers and she frustrates or outrages Leavers, and she annoys everyone else. She is a shit campaigner and she can't negotiate her way out of an empty room with seventy eight open doors. > > What is the point of her? To soak up the anger before she goes? She's done that. Now the anger is starting to poison the entire Tory party. She IS the problem. > > Moreover, things can hardly get worse if she quits. They can only get better, or stay the same, so there is nothing to lose. Let her be gone.
I would think at this point they might as well let her hang around until the EU elections (which will be a disaster for Con whatever happens) and then remove her straight afterwards?
Again, political meltdown was all baked into Brexit. We smug Remainers predicted this, though not the precise configuration of course.
May meanwhile is reaping what she sowed. By overcompensating to the ERGers, she allowed the Ovenden window to push hard right. “No Deal is better than a Bad Deal”, indeed. She created ERG’s rhetoric for them.
By shilly-shallying and obfuscating, she has riled the righteous anger of mass gammon. And she has repeatedly lied to us all: Brexiter and Remainer alike.
That she has finagled one of the lesser damaging Brexits, and that her enemies are deceivers and braggarts to a man, is besides the point.
> @_Anazina_ said: > https://twitter.com/AllisterHeath/status/1127277637842481154 > > > > Seriously, does anyone fucking care? > > To be fair it sounds like you do... > > I really don’t. Anyone who gives midterm polls even the slightest bit of credence hasn’t learned the lessons of recent history.
Not just midterm but being warped by the Euros. I strongly believe TBP are being inflated in the Westminster VI because of their leads in the Euros. I would be delighted to see them decimate the Tories but I dont honestly believe these figures will be sustained after the Euros are done.
> These figures should be sufficient motivation for the 1922 committee to change the rules, and force T May out.
>
> If they don't they are signing their own death warrant, She has become, rightly or wrongly, the symbol of everything the people abhor about Brexit. She repels Remainers and she frustrates or outrages Leavers, and she annoys everyone else. She is a shit campaigner and she can't negotiate her way out of an empty room with seventy eight open doors.
>
> What is the point of her? To soak up the anger before she goes? She's done that. Now the anger is starting to poison the entire Tory party. She IS the problem.
>
> Moreover, things can hardly get worse if she quits. They can only get better, or stay the same, so there is nothing to lose. Let her be gone.
I would think at this point they might as well let her hang around until the EU elections (which will be a disaster for Con whatever happens) and then remove her straight afterwards?
Tories would be stark raving suicide mad if the men in suits do not walk into No.10 on 27th May and prise her from office.
> @Gardenwalker said: > Again, political meltdown was all baked into Brexit. We smug Remainers predicted this, though not the precise configuration of course. > > May meanwhile is reaping what she sowed. > By overcompensating to the ERGers, she allowed the Ovenden window to push hard right. “No Deal is better than a Bad Deal”, indeed. She created ERG’s rhetoric for them. > > By shilly-shallying and obfuscating, she has riled the righteous anger of mass gammon. And she has repeatedly lied to us all: Brexiter and Remainer alike. > > That she has finagled one of the lesser damaging Brexits, and that her enemies are deceivers and braggarts to a man, is besides the point. > > Brexit: Shit. > May: Awful.
Nah. This is all great. We need more of this chaos not less.
> I really don’t. Anyone who gives midterm polls even the slightest bit of credence hasn’t learned the lessons of recent history.
Not just midterm but being warped by the Euros. I strongly believe TBP are being inflsted in the Westminster VI because of their leads in the Euros. I would be delighted to see them decimate the Tories but I dont honestly believe these figures will be sustained after the Euros are done.
Richard
I agree and nor do I think the Tory score will be anywhere near that in a GE, as much as I would wish it so. These polls are simply random number generators in midterm, mere short term sugar rushes for weirdo partisan fanboys.
> I really don’t. Anyone who gives midterm polls even the slightest bit of credence hasn’t learned the lessons of recent history.
Not just midterm but being warped by the Euros. I strongly believe TBP are being inflated in the Westminster VI because of their leads in the Euros. I would be delighted to see them decimate the Tories but I dont honestly believe these figures will be sustained after the Euros are done.
I'm not so sure. We may have hit a tipping point. If the Germans can give AfD a similar poll rating to the SDP. Why not the UK?
> @_Anazina_ said: > > @_Anazina_ said: > > > https://twitter.com/AllisterHeath/status/1127277637842481154 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Seriously, does anyone fucking care? > > > > > > To be fair it sounds like you do... > > > > > > I really don’t. Anyone who gives midterm polls even the slightest bit of credence hasn’t learned the lessons of recent history. > > > > Not just midterm but being warped by the Euros. I strongly believe TBP are being inflsted in the Westminster VI because of their leads in the Euros. I would be delighted to see them decimate the Tories but I dont honestly believe these figures will be sustained after the Euros are done. > > Richard > > I agree and nor do I think the Tory score will be anywhere near that in a GE, as much as I would wish it so. These polls are simply random number generators in midterm, mere short term sugar rushes for weirdo partisan fanboys.
I hope you are referring to me with that last comment. It sums me up perfectly.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > Again, political meltdown was all baked into Brexit. We smug Remainers predicted this, though not the precise configuration of course. > > > > May meanwhile is reaping what she sowed. > > By overcompensating to the ERGers, she allowed the Ovenden window to push hard right. “No Deal is better than a Bad Deal”, indeed. She created ERG’s rhetoric for them. > > > > By shilly-shallying and obfuscating, she has riled the righteous anger of mass gammon. And she has repeatedly lied to us all: Brexiter and Remainer alike. > > > > That she has finagled one of the lesser damaging Brexits, and that her enemies are deceivers and braggarts to a man, is besides the point. > > > > Brexit: Shit. > > May: Awful. > > Nah. This is all great. We need more of this chaos not less.
> Again, political meltdown was all baked into Brexit. We smug Remainers predicted this, though not the precise configuration of course.
>
> May meanwhile is reaping what she sowed.
> By overcompensating to the ERGers, she allowed the Ovenden window to push hard right. “No Deal is better than a Bad Deal”, indeed. She created ERG’s rhetoric for them.
>
> By shilly-shallying and obfuscating, she has riled the righteous anger of mass gammon. And she has repeatedly lied to us all: Brexiter and Remainer alike.
>
> That she has finagled one of the lesser damaging Brexits, and that her enemies are deceivers and braggarts to a man, is besides the point.
>
> Brexit: Shit.
> May: Awful.
Nah. This is all great. We need more of this chaos not less.
> > I really don’t. Anyone who gives midterm polls even the slightest bit of credence hasn’t learned the lessons of recent history.
>
>
>
> Not just midterm but being warped by the Euros. I strongly believe TBP are being inflsted in the Westminster VI because of their leads in the Euros. I would be delighted to see them decimate the Tories but I dont honestly believe these figures will be sustained after the Euros are done.
>
> Richard
>
> I agree and nor do I think the Tory score will be anywhere near that in a GE, as much as I would wish it so. These polls are simply random number generators in midterm, mere short term sugar rushes for weirdo partisan fanboys.
I hope you are referring to me with that last comment. It sums me up perfectly.
Ha! I think you are the antithesis of that Richard!
> @nico67 said: > Amazing coverage , it’s like the Lib Dems poll surge completely ignored by the papers . > > And it’s just one big wank job over the BP . And Labour shedding votes to the Lib Dems because of their fence sitting gets zero coverage .
The media seems incapable of reporting more than one aspect of a story at once. Witness the last GE. So fixated were they on Leavers moving to the Tories, they were flabbergasted when it transpired Remainers had moved to Labour as well. 2 THINGS happening at the SAME TIME!!!? Labour needed to come off the fence for Remain for these Euros. Then we'd have had a Labour v Farage battle. As it is, back come the LD's. Up off the canvas, and swinging again. Result. Farage wins is the story. Take a bow Tories, Remainers, Corbynites. Good job!
Meanwhile, all those Conservatives on here who have been anguishing about Labour anti-Semitism can no doubt explain why they’re utterly relaxed about Nigel Farage’s long-standing and repeated crass xenophobia.
I'm not sure he does, any more. He has clearly reinvented himself. Sharp suits, softer tone. He could become the Alex Salmond of British politics. Hated by many, even a majority, but sufficiently popular with the rest to actually win a general election.
Brexit has broken all the rules, just as Sindyref did before in Scotland.
> > Whoever is Farage's PR/video company they are bloody good.
>
> Nigel Farage himself caps the level of support.
++++
I'm not sure he does, any more. He has clearly reinvented himself. Sharp suits, softer tone. He could become the Alex Salmond of British politics. Hated by many, even a majority, but sufficiently popular with the rest to actually win a general election.
Brexit has broken all the rules, just as Sindyref did before in Scotland.
Arguably, his new message (broken politics, we voted 'out' why are we still in etc etc), is bigger than the man.
> @Byronic said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1127257482865324032 > > > > > > Indeed. > > > > > > Whoever is Farage's PR/video company they are bloody good. > > > > Nigel Farage himself caps the level of support. > > > ++++ > > > I'm not sure he does, any more. He has clearly reinvented himself. Sharp suits, softer tone. He could become the Alex Salmond of British politics. Hated by many, even a majority, but sufficiently popular with the rest to actually win a general election. > > Brexit has broken all the rules, just as Sindyref did before in Scotland.
He looked like the same crass muppet on Question Time that he’s always looked like.
> > Arguably, his new message (broken politics, we voted 'out' why are we still in etc etc), is bigger than the man. <
+++++
Yep. A failed or "betrayed" Brexit - whether this actually happened or not - is the PERFECT medium wherein a protest party can thrive, and possibly triumph.
Add in a general mood of mutinous populism across the West, and, well, bingo.
It could happen. Prime Minister Farage is no more unlikely than President Trump.
Both sides are overreacting. The chances of this being a realignment of British politics are very small. The last one was a century ago. Once May is removed and a Brexiter is at the helm, the Tories will recover. However, any new leader will still find it nigh-on impossible to get anything agreed, and the longer the impasse continues, the greater the existential threat to the party. My feeling at the moment (and this is a scenario which will bring joy to Labour) is that the centre-right will be split in two for the foreseeable future.
> @Byronic said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > Arguably, his new message (broken politics, we voted 'out' why are we still in etc etc), is bigger than the man. < > > +++++ > > Yep. A failed or "betrayed" Brexit - whether this actually happened or not - is the PERFECT medium wherein a protest party can thrive, and possibly triumph. > > Add in a general mood of mutinous populism across the West, and, well, bingo. > > It could happen. Prime Minister Farage is no more unlikely than President Trump. >
U.K. FPTP makes it difficult. Trump had the GOP behind him
> @Byronic said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > Arguably, his new message (broken politics, we voted 'out' why are we still in etc etc), is bigger than the man. < > > +++++ > > Yep. A failed or "betrayed" Brexit - whether this actually happened or not - is the PERFECT medium wherein a protest party can thrive, and possibly triumph. > > Add in a general mood of mutinous populism across the West, and, well, bingo. > > It could happen. Prime Minister Farage is no more unlikely than President Trump. >
U.K. FPTP makes it difficult. Trump had the GOP behind him
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > Again, political meltdown was all baked into Brexit. We smug Remainers predicted this, though not the precise configuration of course. > > > > > > May meanwhile is reaping what she sowed. > > > By overcompensating to the ERGers, she allowed the Ovenden window to push hard right. “No Deal is better than a Bad Deal”, indeed. She created ERG’s rhetoric for them. > > > > > > By shilly-shallying and obfuscating, she has riled the righteous anger of mass gammon. And she has repeatedly lied to us all: Brexiter and Remainer alike. > > > > > > That she has finagled one of the lesser damaging Brexits, and that her enemies are deceivers and braggarts to a man, is besides the point. > > > > > > Brexit: Shit. > > > May: Awful. > > > > Nah. This is all great. We need more of this chaos not less. > > You think chaos is good?
Hey, Cyclefree, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Brexiteers will protect you! Check it out. Independently targeting particle-beam phalanx. WHAP! Fry half a Parliamentary constituency with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phase plasma pulse rifles, RPGs. We got sonic, electronic ball-breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhP7XzA8WI8
> > He looked like the same crass muppet on Question Time that he’s always looked like.<
+++++
You miss the point. I think perceptions of Farage have changed,
More importantly, he is facing the most inept and flailing prime minister, and the most inept and flailing Leader of the Opposition, in the history of modern British politics.
Compared to the disastrous T May he looks competent and determined. At least he knows what he thinks. Compared to the disastrous Corbyn he looks moderate and sensible. He's not going to endorse Hezbollah.
You have to remember the feeble enemy he faces: Labour AND the Tories are divided, useless and widely loathed.
> @Jonathan said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > Arguably, his new message (broken politics, we voted 'out' why are we still in etc etc), is bigger than the man. < > > > > +++++ > > > > Yep. A failed or "betrayed" Brexit - whether this actually happened or not - is the PERFECT medium wherein a protest party can thrive, and possibly triumph. > > > > Add in a general mood of mutinous populism across the West, and, well, bingo. > > > > It could happen. Prime Minister Farage is no more unlikely than President Trump. > > > > U.K. FPTP makes it difficult. Trump had the GOP behind him
Technically it doesn't. You need at least 45%+ to become POTUS. c 35% to be PM with a split opposition. Blair (2005).
There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving.
The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers.
It was entirely predictable that they would be used in exactly the way that Farage is using them.
I expect it will set a new grim record for Labour & Tories in a National election. It serves Labour, the Tories and the EU right.
I think it's a mistake to take Westminster polls too seriously when the Euro elections are about to take place, because you get inflated figures for parties that are only going to do well at the Euros.
> @Byronic said: > These figures should be sufficient motivation for the 1922 committee to change the rules, and force T May out. > > If they don't they are signing their own death warrant, She has become, rightly or wrongly, the symbol of everything the people abhor about Brexit. She repels Remainers and she frustrates or outrages Leavers, and she annoys everyone else. She is a shit campaigner and she can't negotiate her way out of an empty room with seventy eight open doors. > > What is the point of her? To soak up the anger before she goes? She's done that. Now the anger is starting to poison the entire Tory party. She IS the problem. > > Moreover, things can hardly get worse if she quits. They can only get better, or stay the same, so there is nothing to lose. Let her be gone.
Things could certainly be worse for the Tories if May goes. If Johnson or another hard Brexiter succeeds her then a number of MPs have said publicly that they will leave the Tory party. So the government will lose its majority.
A leadership contest would be extremely divisive and would deepen the splits which have already come close to destroying the party. And the DUP might well pull the plug on the C&S arrangement.
> He looked like the same crass muppet on Question Time that he’s always looked like.<
+++++
You miss the point. I think perceptions of Farage have changed,
More importantly, he is facing the most inept and flailing prime minister, and the most inept and flailing Leader of the Opposition, in the history of modern British politics.
Compared to the disastrous T May he looks competent and determined. At least he knows what he thinks. Compared to the disastrous Corbyn he looks moderate and sensible. He's not going to endorse Hezbollah.
You have to remember the feeble enemy he faces: Labour AND the Tories are divided, useless and widely loathed.
The behaviour of the HofC since 2016 has resurrected Farage, when they could have buried him forever.
> @Foxy said: > > @Jonathan said: > > The big Lab-Con battles of the last 70 yeasts seem somehow quaint today. > > A very candida response, or are you just trying to get a rise out of the PB Tories?
Farage is a fungi to be with, and apparently equally hard to shift.
> > > Whoever is Farage's PR/video company they are bloody good.
> >
> > Nigel Farage himself caps the level of support.
>
>
> ++++
>
>
> I'm not sure he does, any more. He has clearly reinvented himself. Sharp suits, softer tone. He could become the Alex Salmond of British politics. Hated by many, even a majority, but sufficiently popular with the rest to actually win a general election.
>
> Brexit has broken all the rules, just as Sindyref did before in Scotland.
He looked like the same crass muppet on Question Time that he’s always looked like.
I was praying for someone - perhaps Rudd - to peer at him puzzlingly for a moment and ask him sincerely why he looks like a frog.
They were far too polite. If the centrists want to beat Farage they need to find their inner mongrel.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > As usual, it is the EU's fault. > > There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving. > > The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers. >
It wasn't a bureaucratic choice but a question of law.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > As usual, it is the EU's fault. > > There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving. > > The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers. > > It was entirely predictable that they would be used in exactly the way that Farage is using them. > > I expect it will set a new grim record for Labour & Tories in a National election. It serves Labour, the Tories and the EU right.
Just how do you think the EU could waive the requirement to hold the election?
He is the pineapple pizza of politicians, but motivating the base to abandon the big two parties and get his own vote out is the way to win an election with a 35% turnout.
> I was praying for someone - perhaps Rudd - to peer at him puzzlingly for a moment and ask him sincerely why he looks like a frog. > > They were far too polite. If the centrists want to beat Farage they need to find their inner mongrel.
> @dixiedean said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > > Arguably, his new message (broken politics, we voted 'out' why are we still in etc etc), is bigger than the man. < > > > > > > +++++ > > > > > > Yep. A failed or "betrayed" Brexit - whether this actually happened or not - is the PERFECT medium wherein a protest party can thrive, and possibly triumph. > > > > > > Add in a general mood of mutinous populism across the West, and, well, bingo. > > > > > > It could happen. Prime Minister Farage is no more unlikely than President Trump. > > > > > > > U.K. FPTP makes it difficult. Trump had the GOP behind him > > Technically it doesn't. You need at least 45%+ to become POTUS. > c 35% to be PM with a split opposition. Blair (2005).
Name the last Prime Minister or President not backed at an election by one of the main established parties.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > As usual, it is the EU's fault. > > > > There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving. > > > > The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers. > > > > It was entirely predictable that they would be used in exactly the way that Farage is using them. > > > > I expect it will set a new grim record for Labour & Tories in a National election. It serves Labour, the Tories and the EU right. > > Just how do you think the EU could waive the requirement to hold the election?
Well, err .. the EU rules are not immutable, They are not the Laws of the Universe.
> > > Whoever is Farage's PR/video company they are bloody good.
> >
> > Nigel Farage himself caps the level of support.
>
>
> ++++
>
>
> I'm not sure he does, any more. He has clearly reinvented himself. Sharp suits, softer tone. He could become the Alex Salmond of British politics. Hated by many, even a majority, but sufficiently popular with the rest to actually win a general election.
>
> Brexit has broken all the rules, just as Sindyref did before in Scotland.
He looked like the same crass muppet on Question Time that he’s always looked like.
I was praying for someone - perhaps Rudd - to peer at him puzzlingly for a moment and ask him sincerely why he looks like a frog.
They were far too polite. If the centrists want to beat Farage they need to find their inner mongrel.
Soubry tried that, and her party are being slaughtered by Farage’s
> @williamglenn said: > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > As usual, it is the EU's fault. > > > > There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving. > > > > The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers. > > > > It wasn't a bureaucratic choice but a question of law.
Like the law that said the UK would leave after two years? Funny how these things can be changed when they really want them to.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > > As usual, it is the EU's fault. > > > > > > There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving. > > > > > > The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers. > > > > > > It was entirely predictable that they would be used in exactly the way that Farage is using them. > > > > > > I expect it will set a new grim record for Labour & Tories in a National election. It serves Labour, the Tories and the EU right. > > > > Just how do you think the EU could waive the requirement to hold the election? > > Well, err .. the EU rules are not immutable, They are not the Laws of the Universe. > > They could have changed the rules.
Talk me through the process and the timetable for that.
> I suspect the phones and email of Con association chairmen will be very active tomorrow.
Both sides are overreacting. The chances of this being a realignment of British politics are very small. The last one was a century ago. Once May is removed and a Brexiter is at the helm, the Tories will recover. However, any new leader will still find it nigh-on impossible to get anything agreed, and the longer the impasse continues, the greater the existential threat to the party. My feeling at the moment (and this is a scenario which will bring joy to Labour) is that the centre-right will be split in two for the foreseeable future.
Unless Farage starts to seriously pull Labour votes away as well.
It is reasonably possible that the tribal, generarations-old voting patterns for Labour and the austerity message will be enough for Jezza to hold on to those who are tempted by Farage. The blue labour brigade were wrong.
> @Gardenwalker said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > > > I was praying for someone - perhaps Rudd - to peer at him puzzlingly for a moment and ask him sincerely why he looks like a frog. > > > > > > They were far too polite. If the centrists want to beat Farage they need to find their inner mongrel. > > > > Calling him names is the solution? > > No, but it would be funny.
No it would have been petty, and I doubt Rudd would have won any support by doing so. What has his appearance got to do with anything?
Plugging the ComRes figures into Electoral Calculus gives Lab 316 Con 179 SNP 55 Brexit 49 LibDem 28 Others 23. If Labour can keep 5 points ahead they'll easily be the largest party if there's a GE this year.
This despite the endless torrents of slurry that are being poured at Corbyn's door. A combination of a Bernie effect and a TINA effect on the Left is keeping the Left-wing base on side.
> @Jonathan said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > The big Lab-Con battles of the last 70 yeasts seem somehow quaint today. > > > > A very candida response, or are you just trying to get a rise out of the PB Tories? > > Farage is a fungi to be with, and apparently equally hard to shift.
Whoever is Farage's PR/video company they are bloody good.
Who are they? And who is doing all the hard work behind the scenes? It must be more than just Farage - so who else is involved?
I was about to post exactly that. Bannon? And is there a Cambridge Analytica style operation in the background?
But as you’ve beaten me to it, I’ll simply observe that Liz Truss’s new hairstyle is clearly intended to make her look like Thatcher but ends up making her look like Andrea Leadsom.
Comments
> Attention. Update on the header doesn't show the Comres...it merely repeats the Opinium from earlier.
>
> Cheers, I've fixed that now.
Thanks TSE.
Ladbrokes now going 7/4 about Tories <10% in the Euros. I mention this because I know your natural modesty prevents you from pointing out you recommended this bet when it was 12/1.
Btw, are you going to Madrid? And have you sobered up from Holland yet?
Atb, a grateful PtP.
> UKIP got 26.6% of Euro vote in 2014. For credibility, Brexit party needs to beat that. Really need 30-35% to make a splash. There is time for that, without doubt.
They also need to get more votes than the revoke petition.
I'm off to Madrid, I booked my hotel room and travel last month, I'm still on a high from Tuesday night.
They’ll come back for a Rudd- Hammond dream team won’t they ?
> > @DoubleD said:
> > UKIP got 26.6% of Euro vote in 2014. For credibility, Brexit party needs to beat that. Really need 30-35% to make a splash. There is time for that, without doubt.
>
> They also need to get more votes than the revoke petition.
They do need a strong result.
> amazing thing is that CCHQ and PM cannot see it. Can't see they are the problem. Incredible.
Would love to know how they rationalise all this and how May's magical deal will fix everything. Some seriously weird thinking surrounding May.
> amazing thing is that CCHQ and PM cannot see it. Can't see they are the problem. Incredible.
So, what do you think will change in the existing parliament if May goes?
> Evening all
>
> Some extraordinary numbers - it's probably been 20 years or more since the Conservatives polled sub 20% in an opinion poll (at the height of New Labour). The LDs breaking towards 15% having not seen levels like that for years.
>
> The journey from two years ago has been remarkable - I look forward to the Farage-Moran PMQs starting in 2022 (!).
>
> The Conservatives (and Labour too) are facing one of the more serious existential threats to their dominance and arguably the most significant since the emergence of the SDP. There is the obvious observation that in times of crisis the two parties may find they have much more in common than they thought - self-preservation will do that.
>
> What will happen? I genuinely don't know - Peterborough is now more significant than might otherwise have been the case and I suspect Party Conference season may be the time to lay in substantial supplies of Fortnum & Mason popcorn.
I really don't believe that voters take EU elections sufficiently seriously for any effects to be existential. Attitudes towards them verge on the frivolous and turnout may well not exceed what we saw for the Local Elections on 2nd May - circa 35%.
Of course that is true. However, that is not enough for Farage to present an existential threat to Labour. He can damage them, sure, but not terminally like the Tories. There simply aren't enough Labour Leavers to knock them out of second place.
The existential danger for Labour is that a shift to an anti-Farage pro-Remain bloc occurs as a counterweight.
Obviously, one solution is for Labour to simply become that pro-Remain Party. Unfortunately, they are led by Corbyn.
> It's time for Theresa to go. She's killing the party.
Time for The Sun to get their "Dead Parrot" front page back out?
> Evening all
>
> Some extraordinary numbers - it's probably been 20 years or more since the Conservatives polled sub 20% in an opinion poll (at the height of New Labour). The LDs breaking towards 15% having not seen levels like that for years.
>
> The journey from two years ago has been remarkable - I look forward to the Farage-Moran PMQs starting in 2022 (!).
>
> The Conservatives (and Labour too) are facing one of the more serious existential threats to their dominance and arguably the most significant since the emergence of the SDP. There is the obvious observation that in times of crisis the two parties may find they have much more in common than they thought - self-preservation will do that.
>
> What will happen? I genuinely don't know - Peterborough is now more significant than might otherwise have been the case and I suspect Party Conference season may be the time to lay in substantial supplies of Fortnum & Mason popcorn.
I cannot recall the Tories going below 20% even in the mid 90s.
The YouGov Sunday Times numbers two years ago this weekend were CON 49% LAB 31% LD 9% UKIP 3% so at least one of the numbers is consistent.
The Gordian Knot for the Conservatives is May has said publicly she will leave once Brexit has been agreed but as Brexit can't be agreed at present she won't resign. As no other mechanism exists for her to be removed she stays. Her Cabinet know one thing - they might be asked to serve in a Cabinet led by someone else sitting round the table and they would be prepared to do so whereas if Boris or Raab takes over they would be gone.
Ultimately, it comes back to the first law of politics - if you don't hang together, you'll all hang separately.
That's what three years of Theresa May has done to me!
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Attention. Update on the header doesn't show the Comres...it merely repeats the Opinium from earlier.
>
> >
>
> > Cheers, I've fixed that now.
>
>
>
> Thanks TSE.
>
>
>
> Ladbrokes now going 7/4 about Tories <10% in the Euros. I mention this because I know your natural modesty prevents you from pointing out you recommended this bet when it was 12/1.
>
>
>
> Btw, are you going to Madrid? And have you sobered up from Holland yet?
>
>
>
> Atb, a grateful PtP.
>
> In a break with tradition, my morning thread mentions by 12/1 tip.
>
> I'm off to Madrid, I booked my hotel room and travel last month, I'm still on a high from Tuesday night.
> > @DoubleD said:
> > amazing thing is that CCHQ and PM cannot see it. Can't see they are the problem. Incredible.
>
> So, what do you think will change in the existing parliament if May goes?
Nothing, the impasse will continue whoever is Tory leader. The local and Euro elections have led to all sides becoming more convinced that they are right and they should not give an inch to their opponents. It's unlikely that there will be any progress until after the next general election, and it's unlikely that the next general election will be before 2022.
The only possible caveat to this is that the EU might deny the UK further A50 extensions and force a no deal but that is unlikely.
> I'm thinking very seriously about paying my £25 to join the Brexit Party (and I've never been a member of a political party before)
>
> That's what three years of Theresa May has done to me!
You do that. Don't expect any input or say in their policies though.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > I'm thinking very seriously about paying my £25 to join the Brexit Party (and I've never been a member of a political party before)
> >
> > That's what three years of Theresa May has done to me!
>
> You do that. Don't expect any input or say in their policies though.
Don't think I'd really want to have "input" that way anyway. It's more about sending a message I think...
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1127213965161975808
In and of itself, the EU elections aren't hugely significant - as others have said, a poor 2014 performance didn't stop the Conservatives winning a majority in 2015 - indeed, the 2014 EU election combined UKIP/CON vote share of 49.7% presaged a 2015 GE CON/UKIP share of 49.4% so the writing was on the wall for both Labour and the LDs in 2014 let alone later.
The BP/CON/UKIP share tonight is 47% with Opinium and 42% with Com Res. The difference between then and now is the Conservatives have no way of shooting the Farage fox and even passing the WA may not be enough. Second, Peterborough provides a huge chance for an extra boost for BP getting their first MP elected (just as Shirley Williams winning Crosby galvanised the SDP).
It looks then like a long hot summer of intrigue for the Conservatives who, perhaps like their counterparts in the mid 90s, may realise the clock is ticking toward their demise. The Conservative Party Conference is going to be interesting I think so while the EU set may be not significant in isolation it may well set in motion events which will be of much greater significance.
And it’s just one big wank job over the BP . And Labour shedding votes to the Lib Dems because of their fence sitting gets zero coverage .
I suspect the phones and email of Con association chairmen will be very active tomorrow.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > I'm thinking very seriously about paying my £25 to join the Brexit Party (and I've never been a member of a political party before)
> > >
> > > That's what three years of Theresa May has done to me!
> >
> > You do that. Don't expect any input or say in their policies though.
>
> Don't think I'd really want to have "input" that way anyway. It's more about sending a message I think...
Then fair enough. An effective way, I agree.
If they don't they are signing their own death warrant, She has become, rightly or wrongly, the symbol of everything the people abhor about Brexit. She repels Remainers and she frustrates or outrages Leavers, and she annoys everyone else. She is a shit campaigner and she can't negotiate her way out of an empty room with seventy eight open doors.
What is the point of her? To soak up the anger before she goes? She's done that. Now the anger is starting to poison the entire Tory party. She IS the problem.
Moreover, things can hardly get worse if she quits. They can only get better, or stay the same, so there is nothing to lose. Let her be gone.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > ComRes also have a European elections poll which has it much closer for first place.
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127305223171710976
> > > >
> > > > Comres polled an 8 point win for Remain.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > Yet Remain Parties in this poll 28%
> > > Soft BREXIT Parties on 38%
> > > Hard BREXIT on 30%
> >
> > Most of the Labour and Tory vote shares are likely to be Remain inclined - the strong Leavers will surely have switched to Brexit.
>
> The growth in CUK etc are Remain switchers from Tories/Labour.
>
> Hard remain is still sub 30% and that's from a pollster than was out by a huge amount in 2016.
>
>
>
Those numbers do not include the SNP or PC, so you probably need to add another 5% to the Remain total.
>
> In a break with tradition, my morning thread mentions by 12/1 tip.
>
Never mind the TSE 12/1 tip; tomorrow is when Roger lands his 25/1 Liverpool/Salah double (or not).
Good luck.
> If May isn’t standing down - that means she will have to address the Con party conference with them on mid teens %.
>
> Good luck.<
++++
Indeed. Can you imagine the awkward horror of such a conference? A despised leader, determinedly leading her party into extinction. It is impossible.
> These figures should be sufficient motivation for the 1922 committee to change the rules, and force T May out.
>
> If they don't they are signing their own death warrant, She has become, rightly or wrongly, the symbol of everything the people abhor about Brexit. She repels Remainers and she frustrates or outrages Leavers, and she annoys everyone else. She is a shit campaigner and she can't negotiate her way out of an empty room with seventy eight open doors.
>
> What is the point of her? To soak up the anger before she goes? She's done that. Now the anger is starting to poison the entire Tory party. She IS the problem.
>
> Moreover, things can hardly get worse if she quits. They can only get better, or stay the same, so there is nothing to lose. Let her be gone.
I would think at this point they might as well let her hang around until the EU elections (which will be a disaster for Con whatever happens) and then remove her straight afterwards?
Indeed.
Whoever is Farage's PR/video company they are bloody good.
May meanwhile is reaping what she sowed.
By overcompensating to the ERGers, she allowed the Ovenden window to push hard right. “No Deal is better than a Bad Deal”, indeed. She created ERG’s rhetoric for them.
By shilly-shallying and obfuscating, she has riled the righteous anger of mass gammon. And she has repeatedly lied to us all: Brexiter and Remainer alike.
That she has finagled one of the lesser damaging Brexits, and that her enemies are deceivers and braggarts to a man, is besides the point.
Brexit: Shit.
May: Awful.
> https://twitter.com/AllisterHeath/status/1127277637842481154
>
>
>
> Seriously, does anyone fucking care?
>
> To be fair it sounds like you do...
>
> I really don’t. Anyone who gives midterm polls even the slightest bit of credence hasn’t learned the lessons of recent history.
Not just midterm but being warped by the Euros. I strongly believe TBP are being inflated in the Westminster VI because of their leads in the Euros. I would be delighted to see them decimate the Tories but I dont honestly believe these figures will be sustained after the Euros are done.
> https://twitter.com/AllisterHeath/status/1127277637842481154
>
>
>
> Seriously, does anyone fucking care?
>
> To be fair it sounds like you do...
Probably sulking about the state of the CUKs
> Again, political meltdown was all baked into Brexit. We smug Remainers predicted this, though not the precise configuration of course.
>
> May meanwhile is reaping what she sowed.
> By overcompensating to the ERGers, she allowed the Ovenden window to push hard right. “No Deal is better than a Bad Deal”, indeed. She created ERG’s rhetoric for them.
>
> By shilly-shallying and obfuscating, she has riled the righteous anger of mass gammon. And she has repeatedly lied to us all: Brexiter and Remainer alike.
>
> That she has finagled one of the lesser damaging Brexits, and that her enemies are deceivers and braggarts to a man, is besides the point.
>
> Brexit: Shit.
> May: Awful.
Nah. This is all great. We need more of this chaos not less.
> ***Getting rid of May does not solve the problem.***
++++
It is necessary, but not sufficient.
I agree and nor do I think the Tory score will be anywhere near that in a GE, as much as I would wish it so. These polls are simply random number generators in midterm, mere short term sugar rushes for weirdo partisan fanboys.
> > @_Anazina_ said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/AllisterHeath/status/1127277637842481154
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Seriously, does anyone fucking care?
>
> >
>
> > To be fair it sounds like you do...
>
> >
>
> > I really don’t. Anyone who gives midterm polls even the slightest bit of credence hasn’t learned the lessons of recent history.
>
>
>
> Not just midterm but being warped by the Euros. I strongly believe TBP are being inflsted in the Westminster VI because of their leads in the Euros. I would be delighted to see them decimate the Tories but I dont honestly believe these figures will be sustained after the Euros are done.
>
> Richard
>
> I agree and nor do I think the Tory score will be anywhere near that in a GE, as much as I would wish it so. These polls are simply random number generators in midterm, mere short term sugar rushes for weirdo partisan fanboys.
I hope you are referring to me with that last comment. It sums me up perfectly.
> > @Gardenwalker said:
> > Again, political meltdown was all baked into Brexit. We smug Remainers predicted this, though not the precise configuration of course.
> >
> > May meanwhile is reaping what she sowed.
> > By overcompensating to the ERGers, she allowed the Ovenden window to push hard right. “No Deal is better than a Bad Deal”, indeed. She created ERG’s rhetoric for them.
> >
> > By shilly-shallying and obfuscating, she has riled the righteous anger of mass gammon. And she has repeatedly lied to us all: Brexiter and Remainer alike.
> >
> > That she has finagled one of the lesser damaging Brexits, and that her enemies are deceivers and braggarts to a man, is besides the point.
> >
> > Brexit: Shit.
> > May: Awful.
>
> Nah. This is all great. We need more of this chaos not less.
It's solid entertainment.
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1127257482865324032
>
> Indeed.
>
> Whoever is Farage's PR/video company they are bloody good.
Nigel Farage himself caps the level of support.
> Amazing coverage , it’s like the Lib Dems poll surge completely ignored by the papers .
>
> And it’s just one big wank job over the BP . And Labour shedding votes to the Lib Dems because of their fence sitting gets zero coverage .
The media seems incapable of reporting more than one aspect of a story at once.
Witness the last GE. So fixated were they on Leavers moving to the Tories, they were flabbergasted when it transpired Remainers had moved to Labour as well.
2 THINGS happening at the SAME TIME!!!?
Labour needed to come off the fence for Remain for these Euros. Then we'd have had a Labour v Farage battle. As it is, back come the LD's. Up off the canvas, and swinging again.
Result. Farage wins is the story.
Take a bow Tories, Remainers, Corbynites. Good job!
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1127257482865324032
> >
> > Indeed.
> >
> > Whoever is Farage's PR/video company they are bloody good.
>
> Nigel Farage himself caps the level of support.
++++
I'm not sure he does, any more. He has clearly reinvented himself. Sharp suits, softer tone. He could become the Alex Salmond of British politics. Hated by many, even a majority, but sufficiently popular with the rest to actually win a general election.
Brexit has broken all the rules, just as Sindyref did before in Scotland.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1127257482865324032
> > >
> > > Indeed.
> > >
> > > Whoever is Farage's PR/video company they are bloody good.
> >
> > Nigel Farage himself caps the level of support.
>
>
> ++++
>
>
> I'm not sure he does, any more. He has clearly reinvented himself. Sharp suits, softer tone. He could become the Alex Salmond of British politics. Hated by many, even a majority, but sufficiently popular with the rest to actually win a general election.
>
> Brexit has broken all the rules, just as Sindyref did before in Scotland.
He looked like the same crass muppet on Question Time that he’s always looked like.
>
> Arguably, his new message (broken politics, we voted 'out' why are we still in etc etc), is bigger than the man. <
+++++
Yep. A failed or "betrayed" Brexit - whether this actually happened or not - is the PERFECT medium wherein a protest party can thrive, and possibly triumph.
Add in a general mood of mutinous populism across the West, and, well, bingo.
It could happen. Prime Minister Farage is no more unlikely than President Trump.
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127309055364616192
>
> I suspect the phones and email of Con association chairmen will be very active tomorrow.
Both sides are overreacting. The chances of this being a realignment of British politics are very small. The last one was a century ago. Once May is removed and a Brexiter is at the helm, the Tories will recover. However, any new leader will still find it nigh-on impossible to get anything agreed, and the longer the impasse continues, the greater the existential threat to the party. My feeling at the moment (and this is a scenario which will bring joy to Labour) is that the centre-right will be split in two for the foreseeable future.
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> >
> > Arguably, his new message (broken politics, we voted 'out' why are we still in etc etc), is bigger than the man. <
>
> +++++
>
> Yep. A failed or "betrayed" Brexit - whether this actually happened or not - is the PERFECT medium wherein a protest party can thrive, and possibly triumph.
>
> Add in a general mood of mutinous populism across the West, and, well, bingo.
>
> It could happen. Prime Minister Farage is no more unlikely than President Trump.
>
U.K. FPTP makes it difficult. Trump had the GOP behind him
> The big Lab-Con battles of the last 70 yeasts seem somehow quaint today.
A very candida response, or are you just trying to get a rise out of the PB Tories?
> > @Gardenwalker said:
>
> > Again, political meltdown was all baked into Brexit. We smug Remainers predicted this, though not the precise configuration of course.
>
> >
>
> > May meanwhile is reaping what she sowed.
>
> > By overcompensating to the ERGers, she allowed the Ovenden window to push hard right. “No Deal is better than a Bad Deal”, indeed. She created ERG’s rhetoric for them.
>
> >
>
> > By shilly-shallying and obfuscating, she has riled the righteous anger of mass gammon. And she has repeatedly lied to us all: Brexiter and Remainer alike.
>
> >
>
> > That she has finagled one of the lesser damaging Brexits, and that her enemies are deceivers and braggarts to a man, is besides the point.
>
> >
>
> > Brexit: Shit.
>
> > May: Awful.
>
>
>
> Nah. This is all great. We need more of this chaos not less.
>
> You think chaos is good?
Hey, Cyclefree, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Brexiteers will protect you! Check it out. Independently targeting particle-beam phalanx. WHAP! Fry half a Parliamentary constituency with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phase plasma pulse rifles, RPGs. We got sonic, electronic ball-breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhP7XzA8WI8
>
> He looked like the same crass muppet on Question Time that he’s always looked like.<
+++++
You miss the point. I think perceptions of Farage have changed,
More importantly, he is facing the most inept and flailing prime minister, and the most inept and flailing Leader of the Opposition, in the history of modern British politics.
Compared to the disastrous T May he looks competent and determined. At least he knows what he thinks. Compared to the disastrous Corbyn he looks moderate and sensible. He's not going to endorse Hezbollah.
You have to remember the feeble enemy he faces: Labour AND the Tories are divided, useless and widely loathed.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> >
> > >
> > > Arguably, his new message (broken politics, we voted 'out' why are we still in etc etc), is bigger than the man. <
> >
> > +++++
> >
> > Yep. A failed or "betrayed" Brexit - whether this actually happened or not - is the PERFECT medium wherein a protest party can thrive, and possibly triumph.
> >
> > Add in a general mood of mutinous populism across the West, and, well, bingo.
> >
> > It could happen. Prime Minister Farage is no more unlikely than President Trump.
> >
>
> U.K. FPTP makes it difficult. Trump had the GOP behind him
Technically it doesn't. You need at least 45%+ to become POTUS.
c 35% to be PM with a split opposition. Blair (2005).
There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving.
The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers.
It was entirely predictable that they would be used in exactly the way that Farage is using them.
I expect it will set a new grim record for Labour & Tories in a National election. It serves Labour, the Tories and the EU right.
> These figures should be sufficient motivation for the 1922 committee to change the rules, and force T May out.
>
> If they don't they are signing their own death warrant, She has become, rightly or wrongly, the symbol of everything the people abhor about Brexit. She repels Remainers and she frustrates or outrages Leavers, and she annoys everyone else. She is a shit campaigner and she can't negotiate her way out of an empty room with seventy eight open doors.
>
> What is the point of her? To soak up the anger before she goes? She's done that. Now the anger is starting to poison the entire Tory party. She IS the problem.
>
> Moreover, things can hardly get worse if she quits. They can only get better, or stay the same, so there is nothing to lose. Let her be gone.
Things could certainly be worse for the Tories if May goes. If Johnson or another hard Brexiter succeeds her then a number of MPs have said publicly that they will leave the Tory party. So the government will lose its majority.
A leadership contest would be extremely divisive and would deepen the splits which have already come close to destroying the party. And the DUP might well pull the plug on the C&S arrangement.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > The big Lab-Con battles of the last 70 yeasts seem somehow quaint today.
>
> A very candida response, or are you just trying to get a rise out of the PB Tories?
Farage is a fungi to be with, and apparently equally hard to shift.
They were far too polite. If the centrists want to beat Farage they need to find their inner mongrel.
> As usual, it is the EU's fault.
>
> There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving.
>
> The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers.
>
It wasn't a bureaucratic choice but a question of law.
> As usual, it is the EU's fault.
>
> There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving.
>
> The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers.
>
> It was entirely predictable that they would be used in exactly the way that Farage is using them.
>
> I expect it will set a new grim record for Labour & Tories in a National election. It serves Labour, the Tories and the EU right.
Just how do you think the EU could waive the requirement to hold the election?
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1127257482865324032
> >
> > Indeed.
> >
> > Whoever is Farage's PR/video company they are bloody good.
>
> Nigel Farage himself caps the level of support.
He is the pineapple pizza of politicians, but motivating the base to abandon the big two parties and get his own vote out is the way to win an election with a 35% turnout.
> I was praying for someone - perhaps Rudd - to peer at him puzzlingly for a moment and ask him sincerely why he looks like a frog.
>
> They were far too polite. If the centrists want to beat Farage they need to find their inner mongrel.
Calling him names is the solution?
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Arguably, his new message (broken politics, we voted 'out' why are we still in etc etc), is bigger than the man. <
> > >
> > > +++++
> > >
> > > Yep. A failed or "betrayed" Brexit - whether this actually happened or not - is the PERFECT medium wherein a protest party can thrive, and possibly triumph.
> > >
> > > Add in a general mood of mutinous populism across the West, and, well, bingo.
> > >
> > > It could happen. Prime Minister Farage is no more unlikely than President Trump.
> > >
> >
> > U.K. FPTP makes it difficult. Trump had the GOP behind him
>
> Technically it doesn't. You need at least 45%+ to become POTUS.
> c 35% to be PM with a split opposition. Blair (2005).
Name the last Prime Minister or President not backed at an election by one of the main established parties.
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > As usual, it is the EU's fault.
> >
> > There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving.
> >
> > The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers.
> >
> > It was entirely predictable that they would be used in exactly the way that Farage is using them.
> >
> > I expect it will set a new grim record for Labour & Tories in a National election. It serves Labour, the Tories and the EU right.
>
> Just how do you think the EU could waive the requirement to hold the election?
Well, err .. the EU rules are not immutable, They are not the Laws of the Universe.
They could have changed the rules.
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > As usual, it is the EU's fault.
> >
> > There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving.
> >
> > The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers.
> >
>
> It wasn't a bureaucratic choice but a question of law.
Like the law that said the UK would leave after two years? Funny how these things can be changed when they really want them to.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > As usual, it is the EU's fault.
> > >
> > > There was absolutely no reason to have these elections, as we are leaving.
> > >
> > > The EU insisted we have them. Some bureaucrat noted it would be against the rules. Probably the EU thought in its "clever" way it would humiliate the Brexiteers.
> > >
> > > It was entirely predictable that they would be used in exactly the way that Farage is using them.
> > >
> > > I expect it will set a new grim record for Labour & Tories in a National election. It serves Labour, the Tories and the EU right.
> >
> > Just how do you think the EU could waive the requirement to hold the election?
>
> Well, err .. the EU rules are not immutable, They are not the Laws of the Universe.
>
> They could have changed the rules.
Talk me through the process and the timetable for that.
It is reasonably possible that the tribal, generarations-old voting patterns for Labour and the austerity message will be enough for Jezza to hold on to those who are tempted by Farage. The blue labour brigade were wrong.
But I wouldn't bet on it any more.
> > @Gardenwalker said:
>
>
>
> > I was praying for someone - perhaps Rudd - to peer at him puzzlingly for a moment and ask him sincerely why he looks like a frog.
>
> >
>
> > They were far too polite. If the centrists want to beat Farage they need to find their inner mongrel.
>
>
>
> Calling him names is the solution?
>
> No, but it would be funny.
No it would have been petty, and I doubt Rudd would have won any support by doing so. What has his appearance got to do with anything?
Pensioners vote.
Like 90% of them.
Unlike the woke kids.
The only strategy is for old foes to bury the hatchet on old disputes, unite and fight hard.
This despite the endless torrents of slurry that are being poured at Corbyn's door. A combination of a Bernie effect and a TINA effect on the Left is keeping the Left-wing base on side.
> https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1127286028946083840
It's lucky she's only going to the EU Parliament then.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > The big Lab-Con battles of the last 70 yeasts seem somehow quaint today.
> >
> > A very candida response, or are you just trying to get a rise out of the PB Tories?
>
> Farage is a fungi to be with, and apparently equally hard to shift.
That explains why his support is mushrooming.
He needs the piss taken out of him.
> Talk me through the process and the timetable for that.
It is possible to do things quickly.
In fact, it is not really difficult to fail to do something.
It is not like the EU had to come up with a functioning time machine, or provide a unified field theory, or solve the problems of world hunger.
It is pretty simple to fail to do something. You simply agree not to do it.
But as you’ve beaten me to it, I’ll simply observe that Liz Truss’s new hairstyle is clearly intended to make her look like Thatcher but ends up making her look like Andrea Leadsom.