> @kyf_100 said: at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison. > > I think its middle-of-the-roadness is its strength. As far as broadcasts go, it's actually quite comfortingly bland. But that's the idea. It's not trying to be clever. Nor is it angry and ranty. Nor does it put Farage front and centre. It uses an everyman approach to convince ordinary people that the Brexit Party stands behind them. > > I think what's clever about it is the target audience aren't true believers, it's not aiming to whip up the core vote in a frothy angry frenzy. It's trying to reach out and broaden the appeal of the Brexit party to people who feel let down by the current crop of politicians but feel uncomfortable about voting for a "nasty" party. That was always the problem with UKIP. The Brexit party isn't (yet) so encumbered. > > This is about making people who never in a million years would have felt comfortable voting UKIP feel comfortable voting Brexit Party. And I reckon it will do that.
I see what you mean, but the talk of "Betrayal" and similar will sound pretty ranty to many non-believers. Hardcore leavers are so used to that sort of talk that it looks to them quite normal.
On the other hand, I agree that it doesn't have any hint of racism, which ultimately is what did for UKIP - it wasn't that people didn't sometimes share some of their views, but they didn't feel comfortable with them. It doesn't actually try to address why people voted Leave, but just purports to speak for all of them.
> @kyf_100 said: > So, thoughts on the Brexit Party's PPB. > > As others on Twitter have said, "the establishment isn't going to know what hit it". It's slick, professional and has a very simple message: you can't trust the establishment, but you can trust us, because we are people just like you. > > Leave aside for a moment your doubts about whether that's true or not, this is a PPB designed to make your average person think the Brexit Party is behind them. > > It doesn't go all angry and shouty. It doesn't scream betrayal. It speaks softly about being let down. Disappointed. But believing in better. > > It uses a broad cross section of society - age, gender, colour, town/country to appear inclusive. The message is subtle but clear: We're not UKIP! We're not closet racists! We're not a bunch of old boys in blazers. Etc. > > It sticks to a simple message. It uses lots of light and hazy soft focus with an optimistic, upbeat soundtrack to reinforce the feeling of positive change. It's strictly middle of the road, but it makes the Brexit party cuddly. These are candidates you could have a pint with, or bump into in the shops, or invite in for a cup of tea. > > The Brexit Party must be a serious contender now, not just for the Euro elections but for Westminster as well. > > They are promising change to people who have felt let down by politicians for years. And change is a powerful thing. > > I would not be surprised to see the Brexit Party leading in quite a few Westminster polls when this broadcast airs. > >
But how may people will bother to watch it? The audience for election broadcasts must be quite low.
> @Foxy said: > > @ralphmalph said: > > > @CatMan said: > > > > @ralphmalph said: > > > > > > > > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet. > > > > > > How can they do that and not make it sound like "Let's return to Empire!" though? > > > > > > > > > > Because the pitch would have nothing to do with Empire. It would be about cohesive communities, respect for the regions from London centric political parties, etc, etc. > > Why would Brexit fix that? Nothing there that wasn't already under our control. > > The last few years haven't exaxtly brought communities and regions together! > >
In this context, the failure/lack of willingness to deliver Brexit is presented as being totemic of the failure/lack of willingness of the current political establishment to bother to listen to ordinary voters.
The current political establishment occasions widespread scepticism and not a little revulsion. They're shooting at an open goal here (as distinct from the Continuity Remain outfits, who are merely seeking to give MPs a prod in the direction in which most of them would dearly love to move, whether this is hidden behind appeals for a second referendum or reluctant support for various flavours of BINO.)
> @ralphmalph said: > Telegraph scoop is > > "The Brexit Party has overtaken the Conservatives in national polling for the first time, with Nigel Farage predicted to win 49 seats in a general election, a bombshell poll reveals."
Hardly surprising. What have the Conservatives got left to offer anyone? They're equally toxic to Remainers and Brexiters alike.
> Manifestos are just distractions and large targets, as May found out. Who remembers Dave's 2010 manifesto (or Brown's for that matter)? The only thing anybody remembers from Con manifesto 2015 was the referendum committment, and Con manifesto 2017 was "we're going to take your house from you". Far easier not to do that.
Stick to vagaries, get celeb endorsements, embody the anger, focus-group like crazy, and they might win. My gut says they'll split the difference and let in Corbyn, but my gut has been wrong before. We'll know closer to the date...
Well, this could be argued to be true up to a point, but they're going to need some kind of common platform to present - even if it's only a few pages long and consists of a handful of pledges of what they will and will not do.
My main concern would also be of a Labour victory on a paltry share of the vote, but if we find ourselves anywhere close to a situation where Lab, Con, LD and Brexit are all reasonably close together in terms of vote share then frankly who knows for sure what might happen?
Indeed. anything could happen: Labour landslide, PM Farage, Con majority, even a 1993 Canada scenario. It will be very sensitive to lumpiness: a vote distribution concentrated in the right areas will beat a more homogeneous vote evenly spread around the country.
> @ydoethur said: > The most effective Remainer politician is Sturgeon, and she wants to leave the country. > > Salmond's got some mates abroad, perhaps he could help her if she wishes to emigrate?
Are they still on speaking terms?
I thought there was a little local difficulty (though something for us to look forward to in due course).
> > Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
>
> Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
I'm not the target audience but I'm not especially impressed. It does a reasonable job of showing they're not just about Farage, but apart from Widdecombe, the candidates all sound and look stagey (what's the camera action stuff at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison.
It's the weird echo that makes the whole thing peculiar. Is that part of it or was the sound recorded at a rally?
> @viewcode said: > Will Change (or whatever they will be called then) be a going concern at the next GE? > > Will Change (or whatever they will be called then) be a going concern at the 2019 EP election?...
> @NickPalmer said: > > @kyf_100 said: > at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison. > > > > I think its middle-of-the-roadness is its strength. As far as broadcasts go, it's actually quite comfortingly bland. But that's the idea. It's not trying to be clever. Nor is it angry and ranty. Nor does it put Farage front and centre. It uses an everyman approach to convince ordinary people that the Brexit Party stands behind them. > > > > I think what's clever about it is the target audience aren't true believers, it's not aiming to whip up the core vote in a frothy angry frenzy. It's trying to reach out and broaden the appeal of the Brexit party to people who feel let down by the current crop of politicians but feel uncomfortable about voting for a "nasty" party. That was always the problem with UKIP. The Brexit party isn't (yet) so encumbered. > > > > This is about making people who never in a million years would have felt comfortable voting UKIP feel comfortable voting Brexit Party. And I reckon it will do that. > > I see what you mean, but the talk of "Betrayal" and similar will sound pretty ranty to many non-believers. Hardcore leavers are so used to that sort of talk that it looks to them quite normal. > > On the other hand, I agree that it doesn't have any hint of racism, which ultimately is what did for UKIP - it wasn't that people didn't sometimes share some of their views, but they didn't feel comfortable with them. It doesn't actually try to address why people voted Leave, but just purports to speak for all of them. >
I think if you focus grouped it (and I bet they have), if you asked people how they felt about the current crop of politicians you'd hear words like "let down" and "disappointed" rather than "angry" and "betrayed".
Farage is a smart bugger and I reckon he's learned from his years at UKIP that there is a ceiling to how far an angry, spittle-flecked mob can carry you.
But to tap into the more fundamentally powerful emotion of *hurt* in someone you trusted (in this case politicians) speaks to a much broader audience.
Most people don't like to think of themselves as angry, shouty, ranty. But that's how UKIP appeared. They do, however, understand what it feels like to be hurt by someone you trust, and that's a much more acceptable emotion to feel - because ultimately you are the wronged party.
It's armchair psychology, I know, but what I'm saying is that with the Brexit Party, Farage is choosing to fish in a much bigger pool.
UKIP, with all its anger and bigotry, had a ceiling of at most 20% of the vote. With the right set of policies in its manifesto, The Brexit Party could go all the way in Westminster. They've plenty of time to build momentum from here.
Even if they can't win at Westminster, with enough seats, the country could be ungovernable without them.
The local election results are a bit like ancient history right now. I guess these polls are the Leave equivalent of the People's marches a few weeks ago which were once news. My gut feeling is that if Remain fails to get their act together soon their game will be over.
> @felix said: > The local election results are a bit like ancient history right now. I guess these polls are the Leave equivalent of the People's marches a few weeks ago which were once news. My gut feeling is that if Remain fails to get their act together soon their game will be over.
The longer Brexit dominates everything else, the more it will promote Ulsterization. If this Parliament limps on for another year or two (and if the Lib Dems make a good choice of leader once Vince retires,) it's not unthinkable that the Brexit Party and LDs could start appearing first and second in surveys like this.
Incidentally, though I don't like hypotheticals, this is what could have happened if Cameron hadn't committed to, and delivered on, the EU referendum, except obviously with UKIP replacing the BP. That's what those who blame the man for calling the referendum seem to ignore.
I think Cameron was a liar and a disgrace in many ways, including resigning after the referendum and breaking his "No ifs, no buts, no third runway" pledge, but I can't hold calling the referendum against him.
> @felix said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @felix said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127304570332426242?s=19 > > > > > > What might just start to worry Labour is that they are now falling the most. Trends..... > > > > Tories in 4th place in a GE poll shortly. > > > > Brexit mania is going to destroy them. Shame > > The right of centre will survive this - it always does. Look at Scotland.
About 45% of the voters are right of centre. If the Tories vanish, someone else will represent that 45%.
> @Black_Rook said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @felix said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127304570332426242?s=19 > > > > > > What might just start to worry Labour is that they are now falling the most. Trends..... > > > > Tories in 4th place in a GE poll shortly. > > > > Brexit mania is going to destroy them. Shame > > The longer Brexit dominates everything else, the more it will promote Ulsterization. If this Parliament limps on for another year or two (and if the Lib Dems make a good choice of leader once Vince retires,) it's not unthinkable that the Brexit Party and LDs could start appearing first and second in surveys like this.
Except the LD surge has yet to happen in quite the same way.
> @Fishing said: > Incidentally, though I don't like hypotheticals, this is what could have happened if Cameron hadn't committed to, and delivered on, the EU referendum, except obviously with UKIP replacing the BP. That's what those who blame the man for calling the referendum seem to ignore. > > I think Cameron was a liar and a disgrace in many ways, including resigning after the referendum and breaking his "No ifs, no buts, no third runway" pledge, but I can't hold calling the referendum against him.
I think the Brexit Party is a far more serious outfit than UKIP ever was.
> @Fishing said: > Incidentally, though I don't like hypotheticals, this is what could have happened if Cameron hadn't committed to, and delivered on, the EU referendum, except obviously with UKIP replacing the BP. That's what those who blame the man for calling the referendum seem to ignore. >
This is what would have happened if Remain had narrowly won the referendum.
The Brexit Party is taking votes in the national vote from Conservatives AND Labour. We night end up with a National Government afterall at this rate (although not that will put a smile on poor John Major' face.) How utterly predictable and avoidable. Reaping what they sowed.
> @rottenborough said: > May must be doomed now. Surely? Not even the 1922's rather chivalrous approach can endure after that polling. Get rid.
Sadly I concur. I would not be happy if Boris became leader but clearly things need to change. A centre right coalition of some sort is essential if Corbyn is to be stopped.
> @ralphmalph said: > If Boris replaces May then BP party cut to 10% all moving to Con to be neck and neck and neck with Labour.
Just to let everybody know this is not my prediction, this was part of the Telegraph polling. The asked the same questions on voting intention with Boris, Raab and Rudd as PM replacing May.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Scott_P said: > > Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE > > > > Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans? > > > > 27 more Labour MPs? > > They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal > > Also can you imagine the chaos in labour mps in leave seats
Why would there be chaos? All it will do is split their opposition. They're already not trying to appeal to No Dealers
> @ralphmalph said: > > @ralphmalph said: > > If Boris replaces May then BP party cut to 10% all moving to Con to be neck and neck and neck with Labour. > > Just to let everybody know this is not my prediction, this was part of the Telegraph polling. The asked the same questions on voting intention with Boris, Raab and Rudd as PM replacing May. > > The Tory share was > > Boris 26% > Raab - 23% > Rudd - 22%
That suggests Tory voters want any change in order to return to the fold - for May her duty is now clear.
> @felix said: > > @rottenborough said: > > May must be doomed now. Surely? Not even the 1922's rather chivalrous approach can endure after that polling. Get rid. > > Sadly I concur. I would not be happy if Boris became leader but clearly things need to change. A centre right coalition of some sort is essential if Corbyn is to be stopped.
I share that view. TM needs to resign after the EU elections and allow a proper leadership contest and if Boris wins I would expect the party to come together with the single purpose of stopping Corbyn. Boris is really the only candidate that could do that role even though I would prefer someone else in normal times - these are not normal
> @Fishing said: > Incidentally, though I don't like hypotheticals, this is what could have happened if Cameron hadn't committed to, and delivered on, the EU referendum, except obviously with UKIP replacing the BP. That's what those who blame the man for calling the referendum seem to ignore. > > I think Cameron was a liar and a disgrace in many ways, including resigning after the referendum and breaking his "No ifs, no buts, no third runway" pledge, but I can't hold calling the referendum against him.
Cameron called the Scottish referendum to kill off the idea of independence. And he called the EU referendum to kill off the idea of leaving. Two of the biggest political misjudgments in British history.
> @anothernick said: > > @Fishing said: > > Incidentally, though I don't like hypotheticals, this is what could have happened if Cameron hadn't committed to, and delivered on, the EU referendum, except obviously with UKIP replacing the BP. That's what those who blame the man for calling the referendum seem to ignore. > > > > I think Cameron was a liar and a disgrace in many ways, including resigning after the referendum and breaking his "No ifs, no buts, no third runway" pledge, but I can't hold calling the referendum against him. > > Cameron called the Scottish referendum to kill off the idea of independence. And he called the EU referendum to kill off the idea of leaving. Two of the biggest political misjudgments in British history.
I think the SNP winning a majority in the Scottish Parliament had more to do with it. If anyone was trying to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead, it was Labour.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @felix said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > May must be doomed now. Surely? Not even the 1922's rather chivalrous approach can endure after that polling. Get rid. > > > > Sadly I concur. I would not be happy if Boris became leader but clearly things need to change. A centre right coalition of some sort is essential if Corbyn is to be stopped. > > I share that view. TM needs to resign after the EU elections and allow a proper leadership contest and if Boris wins I would expect the party to come together with the single purpose of stopping Corbyn. Boris is really the only candidate that could do that role even though I would prefer someone else in normal times - these are not normal
How many Tory MPs are on record as saying they would leave the party if Boris becomes leader?
> @anothernick said: > > Cameron called the Scottish referendum to kill off the idea of independence. And he called the EU referendum to kill off the idea of leaving. Two of the biggest political misjudgments in British history.
Maybe Cameron should have got advice from Labour on the "killing nationalism stone dead" project ?
If the polling is anywhere close to this when the General Election happens (surely in 2022, as the Tories will be terrified of facing the voters until they HAVE to), then what's the chances of the Tories suddenly seeing the advantages of PR, and voting it thru with the help of LDs?
Stranger things have happened. In the last few weeks. Like these polls.
If the polling is anywhere close to this when the General Election happens (surely in 2022, as the Tories will be terrified of facing the voters until they HAVE to), then what's the chances of the Tories suddenly seeing the advantages of PR, and voting it thru with the help of LDs?
Stranger things have happened. In the last few weeks. Like these polls.
> @Byronic said: > If the polling is anywhere close to this when the General Election happens (surely in 2022, as the Tories will be terrified of facing the voters until they HAVE to), then what's the chances of the Tories suddenly seeing the advantages of PR, and voting it thru with the help of LDs? > > Stranger things have happened. In the last few weeks. Like these polls.
Yes. That was my thought a few days ago. Sadly, I concluded any kind of radical, innovative or daring policy proposals are beyond this Tory Party.
If the polling is anywhere close to this when the General Election happens (surely in 2022, as the Tories will be terrified of facing the voters until they HAVE to), then what's the chances of the Tories suddenly seeing the advantages of PR, and voting it thru with the help of LDs?
Stranger things have happened. In the last few weeks. Like these polls.
> Yes. That was my thought a few days ago. > Sadly, I concluded any kind of radical, innovative or daring policy proposals are beyond this Tory Party. <
+++++
The best hope for the Tories now is 1. dump May, and 2, get in a Brexiteer PREPARED TO COMPROMISE (probably on FoM)
Go for Norway or Switzerland, get Brexit done, even if it's crap. Everyone will grumble but the crisis will ebb - and everyone will be secretly relieved. Farage will be reduced to 5-10%. Maybe less. Corbyn can then be beaten.
It's not easy and it's not ideal, but I see no other way out for the Tories. If they persist with T May they are facing extinction. Her polling is now very nearly as bad as Corbyn's. THAT bad.
The EU polls are not really consistent tonight . Opinium has the Brexit Party leading Labour 34% to 21% whilst Comres has it as a close race with Brexit Party ahead 27% to 25 % for Labour. Comres also shows both leading parties dropping 1% whilst Opinium implies that Brexit Party is still surging.
> > What might just start to worry Labour is that they are now falling the most. Trends.....
>
> Tories in 4th place in a GE poll shortly.
>
> Brexit mania is going to destroy them. Shame
The right of centre will survive this - it always does. Look at Scotland.
The right of centre will survive. It's a set of ideas, principles and lived experience subscribed to by many millions of people. It doesn't have to be represented by the Tories though.
> @Recidivist said: > The right of centre will survive. It's a set of ideas, principles and lived experience subscribed to by many millions of people. It doesn't have to be represented by the Tories though.
Democracies tend to a state in which "a left of centre party" and "a right of centre party" each get ~ 45 per cent of the vote.
There may be a period (like in Canada) where a party faces extinction, but soon enough this fundamental equilibrium returns.
It is self-regulating. Policies are adjusted so this attractor solution returns.
That is why the regular predictions on pb.com of "the end of Labour" or "the end of the Tories" are wrong.
Something like the Labour party and something like the Tory party will survive everyone posting here today.
> @felix said: > > @ralphmalph said: > > > @ralphmalph said: > > > If Boris replaces May then BP party cut to 10% all moving to Con to be neck and neck and neck with Labour. > > > > Just to let everybody know this is not my prediction, this was part of the Telegraph polling. The asked the same questions on voting intention with Boris, Raab and Rudd as PM replacing May. > > > > The Tory share was > > > > Boris 26% > > Raab - 23% > > Rudd - 22% > > That suggests Tory voters want any change in order to return to the fold - for May her duty is now clear.
I don't have a dog in that fight, but we need to beware of polls saying "OK, so you think X if A is true. How would you feel if B was true instead?" They effectively prompt people to focus on the A/B issue, which may not be what they do when they vote.
Some extraordinary numbers - it's probably been 20 years or more since the Conservatives polled sub 20% in an opinion poll (at the height of New Labour). The LDs breaking towards 15% having not seen levels like that for years.
The journey from two years ago has been remarkable - I look forward to the Farage-Moran PMQs starting in 2022 (!).
The Conservatives (and Labour too) are facing one of the more serious existential threats to their dominance and arguably the most significant since the emergence of the SDP. There is the obvious observation that in times of crisis the two parties may find they have much more in common than they thought - self-preservation will do that.
What will happen? I genuinely don't know - Peterborough is now more significant than might otherwise have been the case and I suspect Party Conference season may be the time to lay in substantial supplies of Fortnum & Mason popcorn.
> @Byronic said: > BOTH big parties are in freefall. There's nothing to suggest Labour can't follow the Tories down to the high teens, low 20s. > > Farage has gone for the Tory vote first, I can see him eating into Labour now.
Except the vast majority of Labour voters are Remainers. Farage has not traditionally done well with them.
Labour is in favour of Brexit in principle but against it in practice. There is no available withdrawal agreement which would get majority support in the PLP.
> @Byronic said: > BOTH big parties are in freefall. There's nothing to suggest Labour can't follow the Tories down to the high teens, low 20s. > > Farage has gone for the Tory vote first, I can see him eating into Labour now.
Except the vast majority of Labour voters are Remainers. Farage has not traditionally done well with them.
Something like 4-5 million people who voted Leave in the referendum voted Labour in 2017.
> @justin124 said: > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > ComRes also have a European elections poll which has it much closer for first place. > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127305223171710976 > > > > > > Comres polled an 8 point win for Remain. > > > > > > > > > > Yet Remain Parties in this poll 28% > > Soft BREXIT Parties on 38% > > Hard BREXIT on 30% > > Most of the Labour and Tory vote shares are likely to be Remain inclined - the strong Leavers will surely have switched to Brexit.
The growth in CUK etc are Remain switchers from Tories/Labour.
Hard remain is still sub 30% and that's from a pollster than was out by a huge amount in 2016.
Comments
> > @Scott_P said:
> >
>
> Lib Dems + ChUK on 21%.
Will Change (or whatever they will be called then) be a going concern at the next GE?
at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison.
>
> I think its middle-of-the-roadness is its strength. As far as broadcasts go, it's actually quite comfortingly bland. But that's the idea. It's not trying to be clever. Nor is it angry and ranty. Nor does it put Farage front and centre. It uses an everyman approach to convince ordinary people that the Brexit Party stands behind them.
>
> I think what's clever about it is the target audience aren't true believers, it's not aiming to whip up the core vote in a frothy angry frenzy. It's trying to reach out and broaden the appeal of the Brexit party to people who feel let down by the current crop of politicians but feel uncomfortable about voting for a "nasty" party. That was always the problem with UKIP. The Brexit party isn't (yet) so encumbered.
>
> This is about making people who never in a million years would have felt comfortable voting UKIP feel comfortable voting Brexit Party. And I reckon it will do that.
I see what you mean, but the talk of "Betrayal" and similar will sound pretty ranty to many non-believers. Hardcore leavers are so used to that sort of talk that it looks to them quite normal.
On the other hand, I agree that it doesn't have any hint of racism, which ultimately is what did for UKIP - it wasn't that people didn't sometimes share some of their views, but they didn't feel comfortable with them. It doesn't actually try to address why people voted Leave, but just purports to speak for all of them.
>
> What is true is the remain parties seem to have left the field and the prospect of remaining is fading day by day
I think that is true. There is no Remainer politician rallying the cause.
Starmer and Watson are shackled, Vince is on life support. Layla is smarmy (and seems to have beaten up her boyf). Chuka is inconsequential.
The most effective Remainer politician is Sturgeon, and she wants to leave the country.
There is an opportunity here for someone, but no-one is willing or competent enough to step up to the plate.
LAb - 27%
SNP 3.7%
LD -14%
Green - 5%
BP - 20%
UKIP - 3%
CHUPUPs - 7%
> So, thoughts on the Brexit Party's PPB.
>
> As others on Twitter have said, "the establishment isn't going to know what hit it". It's slick, professional and has a very simple message: you can't trust the establishment, but you can trust us, because we are people just like you.
>
> Leave aside for a moment your doubts about whether that's true or not, this is a PPB designed to make your average person think the Brexit Party is behind them.
>
> It doesn't go all angry and shouty. It doesn't scream betrayal. It speaks softly about being let down. Disappointed. But believing in better.
>
> It uses a broad cross section of society - age, gender, colour, town/country to appear inclusive. The message is subtle but clear: We're not UKIP! We're not closet racists! We're not a bunch of old boys in blazers. Etc.
>
> It sticks to a simple message. It uses lots of light and hazy soft focus with an optimistic, upbeat soundtrack to reinforce the feeling of positive change. It's strictly middle of the road, but it makes the Brexit party cuddly. These are candidates you could have a pint with, or bump into in the shops, or invite in for a cup of tea.
>
> The Brexit Party must be a serious contender now, not just for the Euro elections but for Westminster as well.
>
> They are promising change to people who have felt let down by politicians for years. And change is a powerful thing.
>
> I would not be surprised to see the Brexit Party leading in quite a few Westminster polls when this broadcast airs.
>
>
But how may people will bother to watch it? The audience for election broadcasts must be quite low.
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > > @CatMan said:
> > > > @ralphmalph said:
> > > >
> > > > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
> > >
> > > How can they do that and not make it sound like "Let's return to Empire!" though?
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Because the pitch would have nothing to do with Empire. It would be about cohesive communities, respect for the regions from London centric political parties, etc, etc.
>
> Why would Brexit fix that? Nothing there that wasn't already under our control.
>
> The last few years haven't exaxtly brought communities and regions together!
>
>
In this context, the failure/lack of willingness to deliver Brexit is presented as being totemic of the failure/lack of willingness of the current political establishment to bother to listen to ordinary voters.
The current political establishment occasions widespread scepticism and not a little revulsion. They're shooting at an open goal here (as distinct from the Continuity Remain outfits, who are merely seeking to give MPs a prod in the direction in which most of them would dearly love to move, whether this is hidden behind appeals for a second referendum or reluctant support for various flavours of BINO.)
> Telegraph scoop is
>
> "The Brexit Party has overtaken the Conservatives in national polling for the first time, with Nigel Farage predicted to win 49 seats in a general election, a bombshell poll reveals."
Hardly surprising. What have the Conservatives got left to offer anyone? They're equally toxic to Remainers and Brexiters alike.
> https://twitter.com/edwardmalnick/status/1127302582949617664
Oliver Letwin strikes again?
> The most effective Remainer politician is Sturgeon, and she wants to leave the country.
>
> Salmond's got some mates abroad, perhaps he could help her if she wishes to emigrate?
Are they still on speaking terms?
I thought there was a little local difficulty (though something for us to look forward to in due course).
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127304570332426242?s=19
What might just start to worry Labour is that they are now falling the most. Trends.....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/11/brexit-party-beats-tories-general-election-poll-would-win-49/
(in)actions have consequences tories.
> If Boris replaces May then BP party cut to 10% all moving to Con to be neck and neck and neck with Labour.
That is a fair point in so far as a brexiteer as PM taking a hard line with Brussels would see many return
> Con - 19%
> LAb - 27%
> SNP 3.7%
> LD -14%
> Green - 5%
> BP - 20%
> UKIP - 3%
> CHUPUPs - 7%
Any Euro numbers?
> > @Foxy said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127304570332426242?s=19
>
> What might just start to worry Labour is that they are now falling the most. Trends.....
Tories in 4th place in a GE poll shortly.
Brexit mania is going to destroy them. Shame
> Will Change (or whatever they will be called then) be a going concern at the next GE?
>
> Will Change (or whatever they will be called then) be a going concern at the 2019 EP election?...
Naughty.
> If Boris replaces May then BP party cut to 10% all moving to Con to be neck and neck and neck with Labour.
But then Boris has to deliver Brexit... Which he can't with the current numbers at Westminster.
I wonder whether this is all heading to a general election in the autumn and a Con/Brexit Party coalition government.
> > @kyf_100 said:
> at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison.
> >
> > I think its middle-of-the-roadness is its strength. As far as broadcasts go, it's actually quite comfortingly bland. But that's the idea. It's not trying to be clever. Nor is it angry and ranty. Nor does it put Farage front and centre. It uses an everyman approach to convince ordinary people that the Brexit Party stands behind them.
> >
> > I think what's clever about it is the target audience aren't true believers, it's not aiming to whip up the core vote in a frothy angry frenzy. It's trying to reach out and broaden the appeal of the Brexit party to people who feel let down by the current crop of politicians but feel uncomfortable about voting for a "nasty" party. That was always the problem with UKIP. The Brexit party isn't (yet) so encumbered.
> >
> > This is about making people who never in a million years would have felt comfortable voting UKIP feel comfortable voting Brexit Party. And I reckon it will do that.
>
> I see what you mean, but the talk of "Betrayal" and similar will sound pretty ranty to many non-believers. Hardcore leavers are so used to that sort of talk that it looks to them quite normal.
>
> On the other hand, I agree that it doesn't have any hint of racism, which ultimately is what did for UKIP - it wasn't that people didn't sometimes share some of their views, but they didn't feel comfortable with them. It doesn't actually try to address why people voted Leave, but just purports to speak for all of them.
>
I think if you focus grouped it (and I bet they have), if you asked people how they felt about the current crop of politicians you'd hear words like "let down" and "disappointed" rather than "angry" and "betrayed".
Farage is a smart bugger and I reckon he's learned from his years at UKIP that there is a ceiling to how far an angry, spittle-flecked mob can carry you.
But to tap into the more fundamentally powerful emotion of *hurt* in someone you trusted (in this case politicians) speaks to a much broader audience.
Most people don't like to think of themselves as angry, shouty, ranty. But that's how UKIP appeared. They do, however, understand what it feels like to be hurt by someone you trust, and that's a much more acceptable emotion to feel - because ultimately you are the wronged party.
It's armchair psychology, I know, but what I'm saying is that with the Brexit Party, Farage is choosing to fish in a much bigger pool.
UKIP, with all its anger and bigotry, had a ceiling of at most 20% of the vote. With the right set of policies in its manifesto, The Brexit Party could go all the way in Westminster. They've plenty of time to build momentum from here.
Even if they can't win at Westminster, with enough seats, the country could be ungovernable without them.
> The local election results are a bit like ancient history right now. I guess these polls are the Leave equivalent of the People's marches a few weeks ago which were once news. My gut feeling is that if Remain fails to get their act together soon their game will be over.
TBP is the new SDP, perhaps.
> > @felix said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127304570332426242?s=19
> >
> > What might just start to worry Labour is that they are now falling the most. Trends.....
>
> Tories in 4th place in a GE poll shortly.
>
> Brexit mania is going to destroy them. Shame
The right of centre will survive this - it always does. Look at Scotland.
> > @felix said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127304570332426242?s=19
> >
> > What might just start to worry Labour is that they are now falling the most. Trends.....
>
> Tories in 4th place in a GE poll shortly.
>
> Brexit mania is going to destroy them. Shame
The longer Brexit dominates everything else, the more it will promote Ulsterization. If this Parliament limps on for another year or two (and if the Lib Dems make a good choice of leader once Vince retires,) it's not unthinkable that the Brexit Party and LDs could start appearing first and second in surveys like this.
> If Boris replaces May then BP party cut to 10% all moving to Con to be neck and neck and neck with Labour.
Brexiteers trust Farage much more than Boris.
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > Con - 19%
> > LAb - 27%
> > SNP 3.7%
> > LD -14%
> > Green - 5%
> > BP - 20%
> > UKIP - 3%
> > CHUPUPs - 7%
>
> Any Euro numbers?
From the same (I think) Comres poll
BREX - 27
LAB - 25
LD - 14
CON -13
GRN - 8
CUK - 6
UKIP - 3 (titter)
SNP - 3
PC - 1
OTH - 1
I think Cameron was a liar and a disgrace in many ways, including resigning after the referendum and breaking his "No ifs, no buts, no third runway" pledge, but I can't hold calling the referendum against him.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @felix said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127304570332426242?s=19
> > >
> > > What might just start to worry Labour is that they are now falling the most. Trends.....
> >
> > Tories in 4th place in a GE poll shortly.
> >
> > Brexit mania is going to destroy them. Shame
>
> The right of centre will survive this - it always does. Look at Scotland.
About 45% of the voters are right of centre. If the Tories vanish, someone else will represent that 45%.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1127305995418574849?s=19
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @felix said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127304570332426242?s=19
> > >
> > > What might just start to worry Labour is that they are now falling the most. Trends.....
> >
> > Tories in 4th place in a GE poll shortly.
> >
> > Brexit mania is going to destroy them. Shame
>
> The longer Brexit dominates everything else, the more it will promote Ulsterization. If this Parliament limps on for another year or two (and if the Lib Dems make a good choice of leader once Vince retires,) it's not unthinkable that the Brexit Party and LDs could start appearing first and second in surveys like this.
Except the LD surge has yet to happen in quite the same way.
> Incidentally, though I don't like hypotheticals, this is what could have happened if Cameron hadn't committed to, and delivered on, the EU referendum, except obviously with UKIP replacing the BP. That's what those who blame the man for calling the referendum seem to ignore.
>
> I think Cameron was a liar and a disgrace in many ways, including resigning after the referendum and breaking his "No ifs, no buts, no third runway" pledge, but I can't hold calling the referendum against him.
I think the Brexit Party is a far more serious outfit than UKIP ever was.
> Incidentally, though I don't like hypotheticals, this is what could have happened if Cameron hadn't committed to, and delivered on, the EU referendum, except obviously with UKIP replacing the BP. That's what those who blame the man for calling the referendum seem to ignore.
>
This is what would have happened if Remain had narrowly won the referendum.
> May must be doomed now. Surely? Not even the 1922's rather chivalrous approach can endure after that polling. Get rid.
Sadly I concur. I would not be happy if Boris became leader but clearly things need to change. A centre right coalition of some sort is essential if Corbyn is to be stopped.
> If Boris replaces May then BP party cut to 10% all moving to Con to be neck and neck and neck with Labour.
Just to let everybody know this is not my prediction, this was part of the Telegraph polling. The asked the same questions on voting intention with Boris, Raab and Rudd as PM replacing May.
The Tory share was
Boris 26%
Raab - 23%
Rudd - 22%
> FWIW the Flavible projection gives a Labour majority based on this poll:
>
The map of Lib Dem gains across England is striking.
Perhaps we will see the return of two-party politics in England... between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE
> >
> > Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?
> >
> > 27 more Labour MPs?
>
> They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal
>
> Also can you imagine the chaos in labour mps in leave seats
Why would there be chaos? All it will do is split their opposition. They're already not trying to appeal to No Dealers
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > If Boris replaces May then BP party cut to 10% all moving to Con to be neck and neck and neck with Labour.
>
> Just to let everybody know this is not my prediction, this was part of the Telegraph polling. The asked the same questions on voting intention with Boris, Raab and Rudd as PM replacing May.
>
> The Tory share was
>
> Boris 26%
> Raab - 23%
> Rudd - 22%
That suggests Tory voters want any change in order to return to the fold - for May her duty is now clear.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > May must be doomed now. Surely? Not even the 1922's rather chivalrous approach can endure after that polling. Get rid.
>
> Sadly I concur. I would not be happy if Boris became leader but clearly things need to change. A centre right coalition of some sort is essential if Corbyn is to be stopped.
I share that view. TM needs to resign after the EU elections and allow a proper leadership contest and if Boris wins I would expect the party to come together with the single purpose of stopping Corbyn. Boris is really the only candidate that could do that role even though I would prefer someone else in normal times - these are not normal
> Incidentally, though I don't like hypotheticals, this is what could have happened if Cameron hadn't committed to, and delivered on, the EU referendum, except obviously with UKIP replacing the BP. That's what those who blame the man for calling the referendum seem to ignore.
>
> I think Cameron was a liar and a disgrace in many ways, including resigning after the referendum and breaking his "No ifs, no buts, no third runway" pledge, but I can't hold calling the referendum against him.
Cameron called the Scottish referendum to kill off the idea of independence. And he called the EU referendum to kill off the idea of leaving. Two of the biggest political misjudgments in British history.
> > @Fishing said:
> > Incidentally, though I don't like hypotheticals, this is what could have happened if Cameron hadn't committed to, and delivered on, the EU referendum, except obviously with UKIP replacing the BP. That's what those who blame the man for calling the referendum seem to ignore.
> >
> > I think Cameron was a liar and a disgrace in many ways, including resigning after the referendum and breaking his "No ifs, no buts, no third runway" pledge, but I can't hold calling the referendum against him.
>
> Cameron called the Scottish referendum to kill off the idea of independence. And he called the EU referendum to kill off the idea of leaving. Two of the biggest political misjudgments in British history.
I think the SNP winning a majority in the Scottish Parliament had more to do with it. If anyone was trying to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead, it was Labour.
> > @Scott_P said:
>
>
> Lib Dems + ChUK on 21%.
>
> UKIP + BP 23%
Lib Dems + ChUK + Green on 26%.
> > @felix said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > May must be doomed now. Surely? Not even the 1922's rather chivalrous approach can endure after that polling. Get rid.
> >
> > Sadly I concur. I would not be happy if Boris became leader but clearly things need to change. A centre right coalition of some sort is essential if Corbyn is to be stopped.
>
> I share that view. TM needs to resign after the EU elections and allow a proper leadership contest and if Boris wins I would expect the party to come together with the single purpose of stopping Corbyn. Boris is really the only candidate that could do that role even though I would prefer someone else in normal times - these are not normal
How many Tory MPs are on record as saying they would leave the party if Boris becomes leader?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127305223171710976
The Little Englanders will inherit the name, while the One Nation Conservatives will have to rebrand
https://twitter.com/happyharrymedia/status/1126658995735937025?s=21
>
> Cameron called the Scottish referendum to kill off the idea of independence. And he called the EU referendum to kill off the idea of leaving. Two of the biggest political misjudgments in British history.
Maybe Cameron should have got advice from Labour on the "killing nationalism stone dead" project ?
Stranger things have happened. In the last few weeks. Like these polls.
> > @Foxy said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127304570332426242?s=19
>
> What might just start to worry Labour is that they are now falling the most. Trends.....
They must be shitting themselves that the poll shows Lab on 330 seats
> I wonder if this bloke is available to stand for TBP?
>
> https://twitter.com/happyharrymedia/status/1126658995735937025
Pity for him that Brexit is likely to make matters worse for the people he cares about.
> If the polling is anywhere close to this when the General Election happens (surely in 2022, as the Tories will be terrified of facing the voters until they HAVE to), then what's the chances of the Tories suddenly seeing the advantages of PR, and voting it thru with the help of LDs?
>
> Stranger things have happened. In the last few weeks. Like these polls.
Yes. That was my thought a few days ago.
Sadly, I concluded any kind of radical, innovative or daring policy proposals are beyond this Tory Party.
> ComRes also have a European elections poll which has it much closer for first place.
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127305223171710976
Comres polled an 8 point win for Remain.
> Yes. That was my thought a few days ago.
> Sadly, I concluded any kind of radical, innovative or daring policy proposals are beyond this Tory Party. <
+++++
The best hope for the Tories now is 1. dump May, and 2, get in a Brexiteer PREPARED TO COMPROMISE (probably on FoM)
Go for Norway or Switzerland, get Brexit done, even if it's crap. Everyone will grumble but the crisis will ebb - and everyone will be secretly relieved. Farage will be reduced to 5-10%. Maybe less. Corbyn can then be beaten.
It's not easy and it's not ideal, but I see no other way out for the Tories. If they persist with T May they are facing extinction. Her polling is now very nearly as bad as Corbyn's. THAT bad.
> > @felix said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127304570332426242?s=19
> >
> > What might just start to worry Labour is that they are now falling the most. Trends.....
>
> They must be shitting themselves that the poll shows Lab on 330 seats
I doubt if they'd get close to that on 27%.
> > @felix said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127304570332426242?s=19
> >
> > What might just start to worry Labour is that they are now falling the most. Trends.....
>
> They must be shitting themselves that the poll shows Lab on 330 seats
Farage's giving the Tories the Thanos treatment.
Except, no more Scottish Tories
> > @williamglenn said:
> > ComRes also have a European elections poll which has it much closer for first place.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127305223171710976
>
> Comres polled an 8 point win for Remain.
>
>
Yet Remain Parties in this poll 28%
Soft BREXIT Parties on 38%
Hard BREXIT on 30%
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1127318409069453312
Farage has gone for the Tory vote first, I can see him eating into Labour now.
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > ComRes also have a European elections poll which has it much closer for first place.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127305223171710976
> >
> > Comres polled an 8 point win for Remain.
> >
> >
>
> Yet Remain Parties in this poll 28%
> Soft BREXIT Parties on 38%
> Hard BREXIT on 30%
Most of the Labour and Tory vote shares are likely to be Remain inclined - the strong Leavers will surely have switched to Brexit.
> The right of centre will survive. It's a set of ideas, principles and lived experience subscribed to by many millions of people. It doesn't have to be represented by the Tories though.
Democracies tend to a state in which "a left of centre party" and "a right of centre party" each get ~ 45 per cent of the vote.
There may be a period (like in Canada) where a party faces extinction, but soon enough this fundamental equilibrium returns.
It is self-regulating. Policies are adjusted so this attractor solution returns.
That is why the regular predictions on pb.com of "the end of Labour" or "the end of the Tories" are wrong.
Something like the Labour party and something like the Tory party will survive everyone posting here today.
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > > @ralphmalph said:
> > > If Boris replaces May then BP party cut to 10% all moving to Con to be neck and neck and neck with Labour.
> >
> > Just to let everybody know this is not my prediction, this was part of the Telegraph polling. The asked the same questions on voting intention with Boris, Raab and Rudd as PM replacing May.
> >
> > The Tory share was
> >
> > Boris 26%
> > Raab - 23%
> > Rudd - 22%
>
> That suggests Tory voters want any change in order to return to the fold - for May her duty is now clear.
I don't have a dog in that fight, but we need to beware of polls saying "OK, so you think X if A is true. How would you feel if B was true instead?" They effectively prompt people to focus on the A/B issue, which may not be what they do when they vote.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127301600740036608
Quite right.
Some extraordinary numbers - it's probably been 20 years or more since the Conservatives polled sub 20% in an opinion poll (at the height of New Labour). The LDs breaking towards 15% having not seen levels like that for years.
The journey from two years ago has been remarkable - I look forward to the Farage-Moran PMQs starting in 2022 (!).
The Conservatives (and Labour too) are facing one of the more serious existential threats to their dominance and arguably the most significant since the emergence of the SDP. There is the obvious observation that in times of crisis the two parties may find they have much more in common than they thought - self-preservation will do that.
What will happen? I genuinely don't know - Peterborough is now more significant than might otherwise have been the case and I suspect Party Conference season may be the time to lay in substantial supplies of Fortnum & Mason popcorn.
> BOTH big parties are in freefall. There's nothing to suggest Labour can't follow the Tories down to the high teens, low 20s.
>
> Farage has gone for the Tory vote first, I can see him eating into Labour now.
Except the vast majority of Labour voters are Remainers. Farage has not traditionally done well with them.
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > ComRes also have a European elections poll which has it much closer for first place.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127305223171710976
> >
> > Comres polled an 8 point win for Remain.
> >
> >
>
> Yet Remain Parties in this poll 28%
> Soft BREXIT Parties on 38%
> Hard BREXIT on 30%
Labour is in favour of Brexit in principle but against it in practice. There is no available withdrawal agreement which would get majority support in the PLP.
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > ComRes also have a European elections poll which has it much closer for first place.
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127305223171710976
> > >
> > > Comres polled an 8 point win for Remain.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Yet Remain Parties in this poll 28%
> > Soft BREXIT Parties on 38%
> > Hard BREXIT on 30%
>
> Most of the Labour and Tory vote shares are likely to be Remain inclined - the strong Leavers will surely have switched to Brexit.
The growth in CUK etc are Remain switchers from Tories/Labour.
Hard remain is still sub 30% and that's from a pollster than was out by a huge amount in 2016.