How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
Boris would have negotiated a far worse deal with the EU ?
Or rather he wouldn't have negotiated at all but postured and then accepted a far worse deal.
Possible. But I suspect at least we would have left on 29th March 2019.
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
Boris would have negotiated a far worse deal with the EU ?
Or rather he wouldn't have negotiated at all but postured and then accepted a far worse deal.
I think your second proposition is correct: he would have probably negotiated a worse deal for the UK, but he'd have done a better job of selling it.
And this shows the heart of the problem - May is unable to sell anything.
Now that's not a problem if she employs someone else to do the selling but she didn't.
And after the fiasco of the Conservative 2017 GE campaign you would have thought that May would have learnt that.
But it seems neither May or anyone associated with her has.
Hmm. I'm not sure getting someone else to do the "selling" would've worked. Rightly or wrongly, both the media and the public are generally only interested in what the party leader says these days, not some appointed delegate.
Is was thinking more "Oh fuck, I mean really. Really? I mean I can't even...you know, forget it. Forget it. Stupid bloody idea anyway. It's all your fault. Aaaargh!"
Admittedly difficult to put on the side of a bus, but there y'go.
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
Boris would have negotiated a far worse deal with the EU ?
Or rather he wouldn't have negotiated at all but postured and then accepted a far worse deal.
I think your second proposition is correct: he would have probably negotiated a worse deal for the UK, but he'd have done a better job of selling it.
And this shows the heart of the problem - May is unable to sell anything.
Now that's not a problem if she employs someone else to do the selling but she didn't.
And after the fiasco of the Conservative 2017 GE campaign you would have thought that May would have learnt that.
But it seems neither May or anyone associated with her has.
Hmm. I'm not sure getting someone else to do the "selling" would've worked. Rightly or wrongly, both the media and the public are generally only interested in what the party leader says these days, not some appointed delegate.
Certainly.
But it looks like May didn't realise she would have to sell her deal or if she did made no effort into thinking how she could do so.
Surely it is for 75th D Day landings event? Even Trump would make that one, if only to check out whether a new gold course could be built on Normandy coast.
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
Boris would have negotiated a far worse deal with the EU ?
Or rather he wouldn't have negotiated at all but postured and then accepted a far worse deal.
Possible. But I suspect at least we would have left on 29th March 2019.
So you're saying the ERG would have accepted a worse deal from Boris than the one from May which they had a tantrum about ?
Is was thinking more "Oh fuck, I mean really. Really? I mean I can't even...you know, forget it. Forget it. Stupid bloody idea anyway. It's all your fault. Aaaargh!"
Admittedly difficult to put on the side of a bus, but there y'go.
Now We Know? Yeah cos people love being told they were wrong the first time. Any second referendum won't be about Brexit anyway - it will be a referendum on our Parliament and MPs.
Is was thinking more "Oh fuck, I mean really. Really? I mean I can't even...you know, forget it. Forget it. Stupid bloody idea anyway. It's all your fault. Aaaargh!"
Admittedly difficult to put on the side of a bus, but there y'go.
Now We Know? Yeah cos people love being told they were wrong the first time. Any second referendum won't be about Brexit anyway - it will be a referendum on our Parliament and MPs.
That is the problem of referendums, people vote on issues other than the one on the ballot paper.
So what are the 300 000 annual new migrants, mostly non EU, doing?
Obviously someone in CCHQ unable to realise that their "statistics" are now being seen by too many people as being totally untruthful. The old saying, "You can fool all of the people some of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time". As the electorates realisation of the "truths" espoused and promulgated by the government bears no recognisable reality to their own life experiences, then retribution at the ballot box will occur. Oppositions never win elections, governments lose them, and the Conservative Party is proving it.
Surely it is for 75th D Day landings event? Even Trump would make that one, if only to check out whether a new gold course could be built on Normandy coast.
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
Not sure it matters in this context, but FWIW Corbyn isn't a Marxist - he says Marx had some interesting ideas, as did a number of other thinkers, and one should try to draw on the best of them all. Pretty much my view too.
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
But all that isn't her fault apparently, it's everyone else's fault but hers.
Very few say that . She's very much a major player in this mess. But smug ERGers refusing to vote for Brexit (and all but 20-30 accept it is Brexit even if it is a bad one) are in no position to get on a high horse, and nor are those with no plan other than unicorn deals.
What's the bloody point? For goodness sake preserving party unity is impossible, and if a deal cannot be made with labour to put to the EU its time to make parliament pick something, not more legal ju jutsu. She has no clue whatsoever.
Unfortunately those wishing to replace her like Boris have no plan either. Baker and Francois have more of a plan.
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
But all that isn't her fault apparently, it's everyone else's fault but hers.
Very few say that . She's very much a major player in this mess. But smug ERGers refusing to vote for Brexit (and all but 20-30 accept it is Brexit even if it is a bad one) are in no position to get on a high horse, and nor are those with no plan other than unicorn deals.
Agreed.
Let the Tory Party elect Raab or whoever as leader, and let’s see how he gets on.
The laws of arithmetic are the laws of arithmetic. They don’t change just because a Whack Job runs the Tory party rather than May.
That'll be fun if it happens in the middle of a Tory leadership coup. Will be able to resist offering advice?
Hes already backed Boris hasn't he?
Pity the office he holds deserves a visit, we could all do without it and there will be much virtue signalling about it even though hes had them in France and other places
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
But all that isn't her fault apparently, it's everyone else's fault but hers.
Very few say that . She's very much a major player in this mess. But smug ERGers refusing to vote for Brexit (and all but 20-30 accept it is Brexit even if it is a bad one) are in no position to get on a high horse, and nor are those with no plan other than unicorn deals.
Agreed.
Let the Tory Party elect Raab or whoever as leader, and let’s see how he gets on.
The laws of arithmetic are the laws of arithmetic. They don’t change just because a Whack Job runs the Tory party rather than May.
People keep saying this sort of stuff.
When one applies bercowian levels of force to the constitution, as we have seen, anything can happen.
Do you not realise that strange and repellent odour that would emanate from the name of any politician that did that?
An odour that would attach to his or her name and cause a foul stench down the centuries. Like Nixon. Like Petain. Like Quisling.
Noone is going to do that. Not Johnson. Not Raab.
The fundamental point is that Leave won the Referendum 52:48 (& I voted Leave).
Compromise was inevitable.
Leave won, but they did not win in such an overwhelming manner as to warrant suspending the law.
Nah.
Just suspend /amend the leaving date that MrsMay SI'd.
Instant NoDEAL, on the sayso of any Minister.
Becomes a national hero (for 52% of the pop). etc
This is so bonkers that I can only assume that you are a covert Remainer trying to make the Leavers look ridiculous and delusional.
So, no answer is your (arithmetic) answer.
Being serious, I think its quite likely. if you read the act we meet the criteria for national emergency. And sooner rather than later, I suspect Mrs Mays replacement will be confronted with the ToBe or NotToBe question re the Conservative Party. (eg Farage on 20% for GE and nothing is getting thro the Commons inc a Queens Speech).
Do you not realise that strange and repellent odour that would emanate from the name of any politician that did that?
An odour that would attach to his or her name and cause a foul stench down the centuries. Like Nixon. Like Petain. Like Quisling.
Noone is going to do that. Not Johnson. Not Raab.
The fundamental point is that Leave won the Referendum 52:48 (& I voted Leave).
Compromise was inevitable.
Leave won, but they did not win in such an overwhelming manner as to warrant suspending the law.
Nah.
Just suspend /amend the leaving date that MrsMay SI'd.
Instant NoDEAL, on the sayso of any Minister.
Becomes a national hero (for 52% of the pop). etc
This is so bonkers that I can only assume that you are a covert Remainer trying to make the Leavers look ridiculous and delusional.
It's funny, on this board, the clear majority of Leavers (yourself, SeanF, MaxPB, Casino, another_richard, RichardTyndall, me etc.) support the Deal.
Mostly, I think because they've actually read it.
Most of the things that are said about it simply aren't true. (And I also don't understand how you can say "I'd support a time limited backstop" but then say "No, international arbitration isn't good enough".)
But my biggest objection is that the people who oppose the WA presume to speak for all of the 52%. (I at least know that I do not.)
Do you not realise that strange and repellent odour that would emanate from the name of any politician that did that?
An odour that would attach to his or her name and cause a foul stench down the centuries. Like Nixon. Like Petain. Like Quisling.
Noone is going to do that. Not Johnson. Not Raab.
The fundamental point is that Leave won the Referendum 52:48 (& I voted Leave).
Compromise was inevitable.
Leave won, but they did not win in such an overwhelming manner as to warrant suspending the law.
Nah.
Just suspend /amend the leaving date that MrsMay SI'd.
Instant NoDEAL, on the sayso of any Minister.
Becomes a national hero (for 52% of the pop). etc
This is so bonkers that I can only assume that you are a covert Remainer trying to make the Leavers look ridiculous and delusional.
So, no answer is your (arithmetic) answer.
Being serious, I think its quite likely. if you read the act we meet the criteria for national emergency. And sooner rather than later, I suspect Mrs Mays replacement will be confronted with the ToBe or NotToBe question re the Conservative Party. (eg Farage on 20% for GE and nothing is getting thro the Commons inc a Queens Speech).
Mrs May's replacement will then select a Brexit policy, put it in a manifesto and call an election.
No sane, or half-sane, or quarter-sane, politician is going to do what you suggest without the cover of a mandate through a General Election.
The rule of Parliament has been enshrined in our country for centuries. No-one wants to go down in history as the politician who suspended Parliament and the rule of law.
Only a completely gargantuan fuckwit of a politician would do what you propose.
Do you not realise that strange and repellent odour that would emanate from the name of any politician that did that?
An odour that would attach to his or her name and cause a foul stench down the centuries. Like Nixon. Like Petain. Like Quisling.
Noone is going to do that. Not Johnson. Not Raab.
The fundamental point is that Leave won the Referendum 52:48 (& I voted Leave).
Compromise was inevitable.
Leave won, but they did not win in such an overwhelming manner as to warrant suspending the law.
Nah.
Just suspend /amend the leaving date that MrsMay SI'd.
Instant NoDEAL, on the sayso of any Minister.
Becomes a national hero (for 52% of the pop). etc
This is so bonkers that I can only assume that you are a covert Remainer trying to make the Leavers look ridiculous and delusional.
So, no answer is your (arithmetic) answer.
Being serious, I think its quite likely. if you read the act we meet the criteria for national emergency. And sooner rather than later, I suspect Mrs Mays replacement will be confronted with the ToBe or NotToBe question re the Conservative Party. (eg Farage on 20% for GE and nothing is getting thro the Commons inc a Queens Speech).
Mrs May's replacement will then select a Brexit policy, put it in a manifesto and call an election.
No sane, or half-sane, or quarter-sane, politician is going to do what you suggest without the cover of a mandate through a General Election.
The rule of Parliament has been enshrined in our country for centuries. No-one wants to go down in history as the politician who suspended Parliament and the rule of law.
Only a completely gargantuan fuckwit of a politician would do what you propose.
Do you not realise that strange and repellent odour that would emanate from the name of any politician that did that?
An odour that would attach to his or her name and cause a foul stench down the centuries. Like Nixon. Like Petain. Like Quisling.
Noone is going to do that. Not Johnson. Not Raab.
The fundamental point is that Leave won the Referendum 52:48 (& I voted Leave).
Compromise was inevitable.
Leave won, but they did not win in such an overwhelming manner as to warrant suspending the law.
Nah.
Just suspend /amend the leaving date that MrsMay SI'd.
Instant NoDEAL, on the sayso of any Minister.
Becomes a national hero (for 52% of the pop). etc
This is so bonkers that I can only assume that you are a covert Remainer trying to make the Leavers look ridiculous and delusional.
It's funny, on this board, the clear majority of Leavers (yourself, SeanF, MaxPB, Casino, another_richard, RichardTyndall, me etc.) support the Deal.
Mostly, I think because they've actually read it.
Most of the things that are said about it simply aren't true. (And I also don't understand how you can say "I'd support a time limited backstop" but then say "No, international arbitration isn't good enough".)
But my biggest objection is that the people who oppose the WA presume to speak for all of the 52%. (I at least know that I do not.)
That may be the case but the only way parliament will vote for it is in a forced choice between deal and no deal. Just get Raab or whoever to fail to agree to any extension the week before the leave date and parliament will have to choose one way or another. The can kicking doesn't work with an unwilling PM.
That may be the case but the only way parliament will vote for it is in a forced choice between deal and no deal. Just get Raab or whoever to fail to agree to any extension the week before the leave date and parliament will have to choose one way or another. The can kicking doesn't work with an unwilling PM.
Similarly, I suspect much of the ERG - if the choice genuinely was between Remain and Deal - would choose the Deal.
It seems highly likely to me that Deal is the clear Condorcet winner, if the choices are No Deal, Deal, and Remain.
The problem is that the options the HoC believes they have in front of them are: Deal, No Deal, Unicorns, and Remain.
"you can be the umpire in the baseball game and you can run an honest platform. Or you can be a player, that is, you can have a business or you can have a team in the game. But you don’t get to be the umpire and have a team in the game."
This is, in my view, one of the most urgent issues for the future competitiveness of western economies.
Comments
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1120445181969481733
Admittedly difficult to put on the side of a bus, but there y'go.
‘Now we know’ what you think, we’ll do what we want anyway/ignore you etc etc
But it looks like May didn't realise she would have to sell her deal or if she did made no effort into thinking how she could do so.
And nor did anyone else around her.
“Let them eat cake?”
Australia has advised people to "Reconsider your need to travel to Sri Lanka".
https://smartraveller.gov.au/Countries/asia/south/Pages/sri_lanka.aspx
https://medium.com/sunrise-over-the-merkle-trees/meet-poyo-an-interview-with-augurs-most-controversial-cat-a6bccae9ffe7
This is a longer one:
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1120368428949352456
Once you're having the referendum you need to talk about the actual question on the ballot paper, not the existence of the ballot paper.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1120445181969481733?s=19
My folks were there in November.
Unfortunately those wishing to replace her like Boris have no plan either. Baker and Francois have more of a plan.
Let the Tory Party elect Raab or whoever as leader, and let’s see how he gets on.
The laws of arithmetic are the laws of arithmetic. They don’t change just because a Whack Job runs the Tory party rather than May.
Pity the office he holds deserves a visit, we could all do without it and there will be much virtue signalling about it even though hes had them in France and other places
When one applies bercowian levels of force to the constitution, as we have seen, anything can happen.
Can 'arithmetic' stop the CCA?
Get the right PM and anything *will* happen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Contingencies_Act_2004
30d suspension of any law (except HRA).
The projected national shares at the 2015 locals were as follows according to John Curtice.
Con 35%
Lab 29%
UKIP 13%
LD 11%
https://electionsetc.com/2016/05/04/calculating-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-in-2015-and-2016/
An odour that would attach to his or her name and cause a foul stench down the centuries. Like Nixon. Like Petain. Like Quisling.
Noone is going to do that. Not Johnson. Not Raab.
The fundamental point is that Leave won the Referendum 52:48 (& I voted Leave).
Compromise was inevitable.
Leave won, but they did not win in such an overwhelming manner as to warrant suspending the law.
Yeah, I said it. Bite me.
Just suspend /amend the leaving date that MrsMay SI'd.
Instant NoDEAL, on the sayso of any Minister.
Becomes a national hero (for 52% of the pop). etc
Being serious, I think its quite likely. if you read the act we meet the criteria for national emergency. And sooner rather than later, I suspect Mrs Mays replacement will be confronted with the ToBe or NotToBe question re the Conservative Party. (eg Farage on 20% for GE and nothing is getting thro the Commons inc a Queens Speech).
https://news.sky.com/story/new-ira-admits-murdering-journalist-lyra-mckee-11701261
Mostly, I think because they've actually read it.
Most of the things that are said about it simply aren't true. (And I also don't understand how you can say "I'd support a time limited backstop" but then say "No, international arbitration isn't good enough".)
But my biggest objection is that the people who oppose the WA presume to speak for all of the 52%. (I at least know that I do not.)
No sane, or half-sane, or quarter-sane, politician is going to do what you suggest without the cover of a mandate through a General Election.
The rule of Parliament has been enshrined in our country for centuries. No-one wants to go down in history as the politician who suspended Parliament and the rule of law.
Only a completely gargantuan fuckwit of a politician would do what you propose.
QED
It seems highly likely to me that Deal is the clear Condorcet winner, if the choices are No Deal, Deal, and Remain.
The problem is that the options the HoC believes they have in front of them are: Deal, No Deal, Unicorns, and Remain.
And, Unicorns keep winning.
"you can be the umpire in the baseball game and you can run an honest platform. Or you can be a player, that is, you can have a business or you can have a team in the game. But you don’t get to be the umpire and have a team in the game."
This is, in my view, one of the most urgent issues for the future competitiveness of western economies.