And dither again as usual since Sturgeon knows until we actually Leave the EU Yes has no chance of winning indyref2 and even if we do their only real chance comes with No Deal
In 1939 there were around 304,000 reported crime incidents in England and Wales. In 2017 there were 10.7 million according to the Home office.
Now I accept the definitions changed a bit, we didn’t have online crime then or as widespread drug use and maybe people didn’t report crimes as much back in 1939 but I expect that doesn’t account for the entire 30 fold plus rise.
I doubt the figures for London were that different relatively.
Of course if you can provide evidence crime levels are lower now than in 1939 be my guest.
The only sensible way of tracking crime over reasonable period is the British Crime Survey. You ask 25,000 people every year whether they have been the victim of a crime, and if so what kind of crime was it.
Only in this way can you track the extent to which real people feel they are the victims of real crimes.
That being said, there will still be societal changes. I remember one character in a Dorothy L Sayers novel saying "he's my man, he's got a right to hit me", which is not a sentiment you often hear expressed these days.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
It would be interesting to see what happens though.
My Tory MP is a Brexiteer. If he stood as a Brexit party candidate, against a Tory, I am not sure who might win the seat.
Fucking Farage could end up just splitting the Brexit vote, which would be amusing.
I suppose that’s why we want out of Europe three out of four of one team are from continental Europe. I say university challenge is for the brits not the bloody euopeans!
If they voted for brexit they could easily vote Farage
So I suppose on the flip side to this the Lib Dems could win the next election on the basis of there being enough remain votes to win any election we've had (outside of the EU referendum)
If they voted for brexit they could easily vote Farage
So I suppose on the flip side to this the Lib Dems could win the next election on the basis of there being enough remain votes to win any election we've had (outside of the EU referendum)
If Remain won a 2nd referendum and every other party was complicit in preventing the vote being honoured I’d say they had a decent chance
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
In 1939 there were around 304,000 reported crime incidents in England and Wales. In 2017 there were 10.7 million according to the Home office.
Now I accept the definitions changed a bit, we didn’t have online crime then or as widespread drug use and maybe people didn’t report crimes as much back in 1939 but I expect that doesn’t account for the entire 30 fold plus rise.
I doubt the figures for London were that different relatively.
Of course if you can provide evidence crime levels are lower now than in 1939 be my guest.
The only sensible way of tracking crime over reasonable period is the British Crime Survey. You ask 25,000 people every year whether they have been the victim of a crime, and if so what kind of crime was it.
Only in this way can you track the extent to which real people feel they are the victims of real crimes.
That being said, there will still be societal changes. I remember one character in a Dorothy L Sayers novel saying "he's my man, he's got a right to hit me", which is not a sentiment you often here expressed these days.
There is a problem with the BCS which is that it is done on the cheap and many MR companies won’t compete because they don’t believe it can be done effectively at the desired price.
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
If they voted for brexit they could easily vote Farage
So I suppose on the flip side to this the Lib Dems could win the next election on the basis of there being enough remain votes to win any election we've had (outside of the EU referendum)
If they voted for brexit they could easily vote Farage
So I suppose on the flip side to this the Lib Dems could win the next election on the basis of there being enough remain votes to win any election we've had (outside of the EU referendum)
If Remain won a 2nd referendum and every other party was complicit in preventing the vote being honoured I’d say they had a decent chance
Surely the problem would be it wouldn't be the right type of remaining for some and others would see the remain offered as actually being Brexit.
If remain won a referendum and Labour offered remain but the Lib Dems were demanding Remain + Euro as respecting the result I don't think that would do much for them...
Yes, half of us have gone. And will not return while they embrace Nigel Fucking Farage.
Less than 10% of 2017 Tories have gone to Labour, the LDs or CUK combined since the general election according to Yougov and almost cancelled out anyway by those going the other way, 24% of 2017 Tories have gone to the Brexit Party and UKIP though. You do the maths
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
I still go back to the more fundamental point I made earlier which is that however good their ground game or their spread, they are still seen as being a single issue party which would not be considered by any other than a small minority of being suitable to run the country. Even their name implies it. They are about Brexit and that is it.
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
Just as most Scots were not fixated by independence in 2015?
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 1939 there were around 304,000 reported crime incidents in England and Wales. In 2017 there were 10.7 million according to the Home office.
Now I accept the definitions changed a bit, we didn’t have online crime then or as widespread drug use and maybe people didn’t report crimes as much back in 1939 but I expect that doesn’t account for the entire 30 fold plus rise.
I doubt the figures for London were that different relatively.
Of course if you can provide evidence crime levels are lower now than in 1939 be my guest.
The only sensible way of tracking crime over reasonable period is the British Crime Survey. You ask 25,000 people every year whether they have been the victim of a crime, and if so what kind of crime was it.
Only in this way can you track the extent to which real people feel they are the victims of real crimes.
That being said, there will still be societal changes. I remember one character in a Dorothy L Sayers novel saying "he's my man, he's got a right to hit me", which is not a sentiment you often here expressed these days.
There is a problem with the BCS which is that it is done on the cheap and many MR companies won’t compete because they don’t believe it can be done effectively at the desired price.
It's done by Kantar, which is a serious and well regrded market research organisation.
There are sensible criticisms of the BCS:
1. It omits certain types of crime, such as identity theft, which are increasingly prevalent and can be equally bad for the victim as burglary.
2. It caps* the number of incidences of a particular type of crime per person at five. The reason for this is because otherwise domestic violence accounts for the vast bulk of recorded assault (with many victims recorded fifty of more incidences). In the interests of increasing transparency, they should record both sets of numbers.
* This has always been the case, so I can understand the reason why they don't want to change it because it makes current figures uncomprable with historics.
If they voted for brexit they could easily vote Farage
So I suppose on the flip side to this the Lib Dems could win the next election on the basis of there being enough remain votes to win any election we've had (outside of the EU referendum)
If Remain won a 2nd referendum and every other party was complicit in preventing the vote being honoured I’d say they had a decent chance
Surely the problem would be it wouldn't be the right type of remaining for some and others would see the remain offered as actually being Brexit.
If remain won a referendum and Labour offered remain but the Lib Dems were demanding Remain + Euro as respecting the result I don't think that would do much for them...
No, it would need to be Remain + Euro + Schengen to pull the votes in.
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
In 1939 there were around 304,000 reported crime incidents in England and Wales. In 2017 there were 10.7 million according to the Home office.
Now I accept the definitions changed a bit, we didn’t have online crime then or as widespread drug use and maybe people didn’t report crimes as much back in 1939 but I expect that doesn’t account for the entire 30 fold plus rise.
I doubt the figures for London were that different relatively.
Of course if you can provide evidence crime levels are lower now than in 1939 be my guest.
The only sensible way of tracking crime over reasonable period is the British Crime Survey. You ask 25,000 people every year whether they have been the victim of a crime, and if so what kind of crime was it.
Only in this way can you track the extent to which real people feel they are the victims of real crimes.
That being said, there will still be societal changes. I remember one character in a Dorothy L Sayers novel saying "he's my man, he's got a right to hit me", which is not a sentiment you often hear expressed these days.
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
Can’t see them coming close, but in 2015 UKIP were up against a Tory party who liked their leader and pulled out all the stops to deny UKIP, whereas now they are split 3 ways, so a few more seats per million votes might be available
If they voted for brexit they could easily vote Farage
So I suppose on the flip side to this the Lib Dems could win the next election on the basis of there being enough remain votes to win any election we've had (outside of the EU referendum)
If Remain won a 2nd referendum and every other party was complicit in preventing the vote being honoured I’d say they had a decent chance
Surely the problem would be it wouldn't be the right type of remaining for some and others would see the remain offered as actually being Brexit.
If remain won a referendum and Labour offered remain but the Lib Dems were demanding Remain + Euro as respecting the result I don't think that would do much for them...
The lib dems would never demand joining the euro now even if they once did, we're quite happy with Germany ++ that is their relationship without joining Schengen, euro and keeping our rebate.
If they voted for brexit they could easily vote Farage
So I suppose on the flip side to this the Lib Dems could win the next election on the basis of there being enough remain votes to win any election we've had (outside of the EU referendum)
If Remain won a 2nd referendum and every other party was complicit in preventing the vote being honoured I’d say they had a decent chance
Surely the problem would be it wouldn't be the right type of remaining for some and others would see the remain offered as actually being Brexit.
If remain won a referendum and Labour offered remain but the Lib Dems were demanding Remain + Euro as respecting the result I don't think that would do much for them...
Actually that implies I think the Brexit Party have a decent chance of winning a GE, and I don’t really. But as the LDs have been a party of government, and have the infrastructure etc, if those conditions were in place they’d have a chance
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
It was still not what voters wished to talk about - other than the obsessives on each side.
In 1939 there were around 304,000 reported crime incidents in England and Wales. In 2017 there were 10.7 million according to the Home office.
Now I accept the definitions changed a bit, we didn’t have online crime then or as widespread drug use and maybe people didn’t report crimes as much back in 1939 but I expect that doesn’t account for the entire 30 fold plus rise.
I doubt the figures for London were that different relatively.
Of course if you can provide evidence crime levels are lower now than in 1939 be my guest.
The only sensible way of tracking crime over reasonable period is the British Crime Survey. You ask 25,000 people every year whether they have been the victim of a crime, and if so what kind of crime was it.
Only in this way can you track the extent to which real people feel they are the victims of real crimes.
That being said, there will still be societal changes. I remember one character in a Dorothy L Sayers novel saying "he's my man, he's got a right to hit me", which is not a sentiment you often here expressed these days.
There is a problem with the BCS which is that it is done on the cheap and many MR companies won’t compete because they don’t believe it can be done effectively at the desired price.
It's done by Kantar, which is a serious and well regrded market research organisation.
There are sensible criticisms of the BCS:
1. It omits certain types of crime, such as identity theft, which are increasingly prevalent and can be equally bad for the victim as burglary.
2. It caps* the number of incidences of a particular type of crime per person at five. The reason for this is because otherwise domestic violence accounts for the vast bulk of recorded assault (with many victims recorded fifty of more incidences). In the interests of increasing transparency, they should record both sets of numbers.
* This has always been the case, so I can understand the reason why they don't want to change it because it makes current figures uncomprable with historics.
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
Can’t see them coming close, but in 2015 UKIP were up against a Tory party who liked their leader and pulled out all the stops to deny UKIP, whereas now they are split 3 ways, so a few more seats per million votes might be available
Sure, it might get them half a dozen seats. But - irony of ironies - their rise at the expense of the Tories probably hands Richmond, St Ives and 8 or 9 other seats to the LibDems.
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
You defeat your own argument. If Brexit was such an issue the LibDems should have polled north of 30% due to desperate remainers. They didn't because those voters voted on other issues, not Brexit.
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
It was still not what voters wished to talk about - other than the obsessives on each side.
That is because Brexit was promised to be delivered, if MPs now revoke Brexit and cancel Article 50 Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
2017 offered the voters no choice on Brexit from the two big parties. There wasn't a fag paper between them. Not sure the next one will be the same.....
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
Can’t see them coming close, but in 2015 UKIP were up against a Tory party who liked their leader and pulled out all the stops to deny UKIP, whereas now they are split 3 ways, so a few more seats per million votes might be available
Sure, it might get them half a dozen seats. But - irony of ironies - their rise at the expense of the Tories probably hands Richmond, St Ives and 8 or 9 other seats to the LibDems.
Put the European elections totals of 27% Brexit Party, 22% for Labour and 15% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and UKIP/Brexit Party gets 289 seats and the Tories just 4
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
Can’t see them coming close, but in 2015 UKIP were up against a Tory party who liked their leader and pulled out all the stops to deny UKIP, whereas now they are split 3 ways, so a few more seats per million votes might be available
Sure, it might get them half a dozen seats. But - irony of ironies - their rise at the expense of the Tories probably hands Richmond, St Ives and 8 or 9 other seats to the LibDems.
Put the European elections totals of 27% Brexit Party, 22% for Labour and 15% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and UKIP/Brexit Party gets 289 seats and the Tories just 4
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
You defeat your own argument. If Brexit was such an issue the LibDems should have polled north of 30% due to desperate remainers. They didn't because those voters voted on other issues, not Brexit.
Those voters largely voted Labour as they mistakenly believed Corbyn would reverse Brexit or at least commit to stay in the single market, hence now Labour has also fallen below 30% in some polls while the LDs, the Greens and the SNP and CUK are up
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
Can’t see them coming close, but in 2015 UKIP were up against a Tory party who liked their leader and pulled out all the stops to deny UKIP, whereas now they are split 3 ways, so a few more seats per million votes might be available
Sure, it might get them half a dozen seats. But - irony of ironies - their rise at the expense of the Tories probably hands Richmond, St Ives and 8 or 9 other seats to the LibDems.
Put the European elections totals of 27% Brexit Party, 22% for Labour and 15% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and UKIP/Brexit Party gets 289 seats and the Tories just 4
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
You defeat your own argument. If Brexit was such an issue the LibDems should have polled north of 30% due to desperate remainers. They didn't because those voters voted on other issues, not Brexit.
Those voters largely voted Labour as they mistakenly believed Corbyn would reverse Brexit or at least commit to stay in the single market, hence now Labour has also fallen below 30% in some polls while the LDs, the Greens and the SNP and CUK are up
I think you give Brexit too much prominence in the minds of voters. I guess we'll see at the next GE.
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
2017 offered the voters no choice on Brexit from the two big parties. There wasn't a fag paper between them. Not sure the next one will be the same.....
It was never a core salient issue for most people, which is why people responded to Corbyn when he raised other matters.
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
You defeat your own argument. If Brexit was such an issue the LibDems should have polled north of 30% due to desperate remainers. They didn't because those voters voted on other issues, not Brexit.
Why do you think Labour has lost 10% of its vote over a similar period May has lost much of her party?
I'm sorry to break it to you but many of the 40-odd percent Labour got in 2017 aren't into 'real socialism', that demographic isn't large enough. A large proportion is remainers who chose the least worst option to prevent a Conservative majority.
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
Can’t see them coming close, but in 2015 UKIP were up against a Tory party who liked their leader and pulled out all the stops to deny UKIP, whereas now they are split 3 ways, so a few more seats per million votes might be available
Sure, it might get them half a dozen seats. But - irony of ironies - their rise at the expense of the Tories probably hands Richmond, St Ives and 8 or 9 other seats to the LibDems.
Put the European elections totals of 27% Brexit Party, 22% for Labour and 15% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and UKIP/Brexit Party gets 289 seats and the Tories just 4
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
I still go back to the more fundamental point I made earlier which is that however good their ground game or their spread, they are still seen as being a single issue party which would not be considered by any other than a small minority of being suitable to run the country. Even their name implies it. They are about Brexit and that is it.
Brexit Party is perfect for the Euros at the expense of being damaging for a GE - but if it gets Farage re-elected as an MEP then it's job done.
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
Can’t see them coming close, but in 2015 UKIP were up against a Tory party who liked their leader and pulled out all the stops to deny UKIP, whereas now they are split 3 ways, so a few more seats per million votes might be available
Sure, it might get them half a dozen seats. But - irony of ironies - their rise at the expense of the Tories probably hands Richmond, St Ives and 8 or 9 other seats to the LibDems.
Put the European elections totals of 27% Brexit Party, 22% for Labour and 15% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and UKIP/Brexit Party gets 289 seats and the Tories just 4
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
You defeat your own argument. If Brexit was such an issue the LibDems should have polled north of 30% due to desperate remainers. They didn't because those voters voted on other issues, not Brexit.
Those voters largely voted Labour as they mistakenly believed Corbyn would reverse Brexit or at least commit to stay in the single market, hence now Labour has also fallen below 30% in some polls while the LDs, the Greens and the SNP and CUK are up
I think you give Brexit too much prominence in the minds of voters. I guess we'll see at the next GE.
The argument on the merits of leaving the EU or not is no longer the issue, the new move is to focus on the parliamentarians who have refused to accept the result
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
The Leave vote is notably less concentrated than the Remain vote, so in principle the prospects for a new Remain party (TIG) would be better on that basis than a new Leave party (Brexit), but I suspect that the Brexit party could demonstrate that concentration of the vote is not the determinant factor.
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
You defeat your own argument. If Brexit was such an issue the LibDems should have polled north of 30% due to desperate remainers. They didn't because those voters voted on other issues, not Brexit.
Those voters largely voted Labour as they mistakenly believed Corbyn would reverse Brexit or at least commit to stay in the single market, hence now Labour has also fallen below 30% in some polls while the LDs, the Greens and the SNP and CUK are up
I think you give Brexit too much prominence in the minds of voters. I guess we'll see at the next GE.
The argument on the merits of leaving the EU or not is no longer the issue, the new move is to focus on the parliamentarians who have refused to accept the result
Cash, Bone, Francois and co will be in trouble then.
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
You defeat your own argument. If Brexit was such an issue the LibDems should have polled north of 30% due to desperate remainers. They didn't because those voters voted on other issues, not Brexit.
Why do you think Labour has lost 10% of its vote over a similar period May has lost much of her party?
I'm sorry to break it to you but many of the 40-odd percent Labour got in 2017 aren't into 'real socialism', that demographic isn't large enough. A large proportion is remainers who chose the least worst option to prevent a Conservative majority.
Why have Labour lost voters? Social Democrats switching to the Tiggers, those for whom the lunatic fringe has become unbearable and a couple of percent who have switched purely because of Brexit.
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
Can’t see them coming close, but in 2015 UKIP were up against a Tory party who liked their leader and pulled out all the stops to deny UKIP, whereas now they are split 3 ways, so a few more seats per million votes might be available
Sure, it might get them half a dozen seats. But - irony of ironies - their rise at the expense of the Tories probably hands Richmond, St Ives and 8 or 9 other seats to the LibDems.
Put the European elections totals of 27% Brexit Party, 22% for Labour and 15% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and UKIP/Brexit Party gets 289 seats and the Tories just 4
Just as the SNP sweeping the board in 2015 or Trump was never supposed to happen?
52% of voters voted Leave, if he gets over half of them to back the Brexit Party if the Commons revoked Article 50 Farage probably wins a majority under FPTP
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
You defeat your own argument. If Brexit was such an issue the LibDems should have polled north of 30% due to desperate remainers. They didn't because those voters voted on other issues, not Brexit.
Those voters largely voted Labour as they mistakenly believed Corbyn would reverse Brexit or at least commit to stay in the single market, hence now Labour has also fallen below 30% in some polls while the LDs, the Greens and the SNP and CUK are up
I think you give Brexit too much prominence in the minds of voters. I guess we'll see at the next GE.
The argument on the merits of leaving the EU or not is no longer the issue, the new move is to focus on the parliamentarians who have refused to accept the result
Cash, Bone, Francois and co will be in trouble then.
They accepted the result I think, just made a mistake on not accepting the deal
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
You defeat your own argument. If Brexit was such an issue the LibDems should have polled north of 30% due to desperate remainers. They didn't because those voters voted on other issues, not Brexit.
Those voters largely voted Labour as they mistakenly believed Corbyn would reverse Brexit or at least commit to stay in the single market, hence now Labour has also fallen below 30% in some polls while the LDs, the Greens and the SNP and CUK are up
I think you give Brexit too much prominence in the minds of voters. I guess we'll see at the next GE.
The argument on the merits of leaving the EU or not is no longer the issue, the new move is to focus on the parliamentarians who have refused to accept the result
Cash, Bone, Francois and co will be in trouble then.
They accepted the result I think, just made a mistake on not accepting the deal
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if the House of Commons then proceeded to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
You defeat your own argument. If Brexit was such an issue the LibDems should have polled north of 30% due to desperate remainers. They didn't because those voters voted on other issues, not Brexit.
Why do you think Labour has lost 10% of its vote over a similar period May has lost much of her party?
I'm sorry to break it to you but many of the 40-odd percent Labour got in 2017 aren't into 'real socialism', that demographic isn't large enough. A large proportion is remainers who chose the least worst option to prevent a Conservative majority.
Why have Labour lost voters? Social Democrats switching to the Tiggers, those for whom the lunatic fringe has become unbearable and a couple of percent who have switched purely because of Brexit.
It is a second-order issue on the left.
Indeed - and the majority of those who have switched to the Greens etc are likely to return to Labour at a GE.
I think this talk about Farage is being overblown and any European elections are not underway yet - If a week is a long-time in politics a month is a lifetime! If you make one man the focus of a campaign it will inevitably move from a strength to a weakness.
Farage does not have a clean slate as an MEP, indeed he has repeatedly been enmeshed in controversy about expenses and the inappropriate use of them. Money is Nigel Farage's weak point IMO and it is something he has repeatedly complained about not having enough of as his divorce from his German wife put finances under pressure.
Just a quick google search provides detailed information about expense claims that can prove the undoing of politicians:
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
Can’t see them coming close, but in 2015 UKIP were up against a Tory party who liked their leader and pulled out all the stops to deny UKIP, whereas now they are split 3 ways, so a few more seats per million votes might be available
Sure, it might get them half a dozen seats. But - irony of ironies - their rise at the expense of the Tories probably hands Richmond, St Ives and 8 or 9 other seats to the LibDems.
Put the European elections totals of 27% Brexit Party, 22% for Labour and 15% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and UKIP/Brexit Party gets 289 seats and the Tories just 4
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Remember a majority of Tory voters and a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, if thel Brexit Leave voters will be so disgusted with the political establishment they will try anything to register that disgust, including voting Brexit Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
You defeat your own argument. If Brexit was such an issue the LibDems should have polled north of 30% due to desperate remainers. They didn't because those voters voted on other issues, not Brexit.
Those voters largely voted Labour as they mistakenly believed Corbyn would reverse Brexit or at least commit to stay in the single market, hence now Labour has also fallen below 30% in some polls while the LDs, the Greens and the SNP and CUK are up
I think you give Brexit too much prominence in the minds of voters. I guess we'll see at the next GE.
The argument on the merits of leaving the EU or not is no longer the issue, the new move is to focus on the parliamentarians who have refused to accept the result
Cash, Bone, Francois and co will be in trouble then.
They accepted the result I think, just made a mistake on not accepting the deal
The same could be said for most Labour MPs.
I think the ERG play the role of lobbyists for the death penalty in the case of a man found guilty of murder who has been sentenced to life imprisonment. The Labour MPs, and Tories like Grieve, are calling for a retrial or a pardon
I'm sure Farage could beat his previous attempts but I just can't see him coming near winning a majority in a general election. It would require him replacing the Conservatives and Labour seriously splitting in one election IMO. At best he would make a breakthrough and get seats into high double figures but I'm highly sceptical on that.
People said the same about the SNP before the 2015 general election and looked what happened then.
Party
If Farage could get everyone who voted for Brexit to vote for him in a general election then he could win. That won't happen though.
It could if the House of Commons revoked Article 50, in fact just getting to 40% and around 80% of Leave voters voting Brexit Party could see Farage and the Brexit Party win a majority under FPTP
That isn't going to happen. Most people are not fixated by Brexit.
I totally agree. In reality, Brexit will not prove to be the dominant issue of any election campaign - any more than was the case in 2017.
In 2017 May was promising a hard Brexit, Corbyn was also promising to respect the Brexit vote, we are now at the stage we may not get Brexit at all
You defeat your own argument. If Brexit was such an issue the LibDems should have polled north of 30% due to desperate remainers. They didn't because those voters voted on other issues, not Brexit.
Why do you think Labour has lost 10% of its vote over a similar period May has lost much of her party?
I'm sorry to break it to you but many of the 40-odd percent Labour got in 2017 aren't into 'real socialism', that demographic isn't large enough. A large proportion is remainers who chose the least worst option to prevent a Conservative majority.
Why have Labour lost voters? Social Democrats switching to the Tiggers, those for whom the lunatic fringe has become unbearable and a couple of percent who have switched purely because of Brexit.
It is a second-order issue on the left.
Indeed - and the majority of those who have switched to the Greens etc are likely to return to Labour at a GE.
Yes, I am minded to vote Green at the Euros, but will not be at the GE myself.
I think this talk about Farage is being overblown and any European elections are not underway yet - If a week is a long-time in politics a month is a lifetime! If you make one man the focus of a campaign it will inevitably move from a strength to a weakness.
Farage does not have a clean slate as an MEP, indeed he has repeatedly been enmeshed in controversy about expenses and the inappropriate use of them. Money is Nigel Farage's weak point IMO and it is something he has repeatedly complained about not having enough of as his divorce from his German wife put finances under pressure.
Just a quick google search provides detailed information about expense claims that can prove the undoing of politicians:
Farage has chutzpah. He uses his own experience of snout in the trough expenses, and poor attendance as evidence of how easy it is to abuse the system.
Put the European elections totals of 27% Brexit Party, 22% for Labour and 15% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and UKIP/Brexit Party gets 289 seats and the Tories just 4
Just as the SNP sweeping the board in 2015 or Trump was never supposed to happen?
52% of voters voted Leave, if he gets over half of them to back the Brexit Party if the Commons revoked Article 50 Farage probably wins a majority under FPTP
Trump was on the Republican ticket, he had party infrastructure that helped him win the electoral college. If Trump had been an independent candidate I doubt he would have done much better than Ross Perot. The SNP again had a viable infrastructure and the change in leadership of the SNP provided a boost in popularity at just the right time for the SNP to cash in at the 2015 election.
I sometimes get the feeling you have never been involved in a FPTP election or campaigned in an election if you think that opinion polls or referendum results magically transfer into another election result. The world does not work like that in FPTP and Incumbency is a powerful advantage worth thousands of votes potentially in a parliamentary constituency. The Brexit party has no infrastructure, no idea where the best concentration of their potential voters are other than wildly guessing that an area that might have voted Leave might be receptive to the Brexit party. In a GE the Tories and Labour target about 70 seats with campaign literature, telephone canvassing, campaign visits, opinion polling and the like. Where does the Brexit party get the funds to do something equivalent and the volunteers? The Brexit party and UKIP may well end up jostling for the same seats. I take your comments on elections citing opinion polls very sceptically as they go against pretty rudimentary academic work on political parties and elections....
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
The leadership selection rules are part of the party constitution... any change to the constitution requires 66% of voting MPs to support IIRC. Quite a tough hurdle, and not one that Brady can be confident will be passed. Put another way, circa 100 moderate Tory MPs can prevent the rules being changed.
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
But all that isn't her fault apparently, it's everyone else's fault but hers.
I think this talk about Farage is being overblown and any European elections are not underway yet - If a week is a long-time in politics a month is a lifetime! If you make one man the focus of a campaign it will inevitably move from a strength to a weakness.
Farage does not have a clean slate as an MEP, indeed he has repeatedly been enmeshed in controversy about expenses and the inappropriate use of them. Money is Nigel Farage's weak point IMO and it is something he has repeatedly complained about not having enough of as his divorce from his German wife put finances under pressure.
Just a quick google search provides detailed information about expense claims that can prove the undoing of politicians:
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
Boris would have negotiated a far worse deal with the EU ?
Or rather he wouldn't have negotiated at all but postured and then accepted a far worse deal.
'Put the European elections totals of 27% Brexit Party, 22% for Labour and 15% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and UKIP/Brexit Party gets 289 seats and the Tories just 4
Just as the SNP sweeping the board in 2015 or Trump was never supposed to happen?
52% of voters voted Leave, if he gets over half of them to back the Brexit Party if the Commons revoked Article 50 Farage probably wins a majority under FPTP
Trump was on the Republican ticket, he had party infrastructure that helped him win the electoral college. If Trump had been an independent candidate I doubt he would have done much better than Ross Perot. The SNP again had a viable infrastructure and the change in leadership of the SNP provided a boost in popularity at just the right time for the SNP to cash in at the 2015 election.
I sometimes get the feeling you have never been involved in a FPTP election or campaigned in an election if you think that opinion polls or referendum results magically transfer into another election result. The world does not work like that in FPTP and Incumbency is a powerful advantage worth thousands of votes potentially in a parliamentary constituency. The Brexit party has no infrastructure, no idea where the best concentration of their potential voters are other than wildly guessing that an area that might have voted Leave might be receptive to the Brexit party. In a GE the Tories and Labour target about 70 seats with campaign literature, telephone canvassing, campaign visits, opinion polling and the like. Where does the Brexit party get the funds to do something equivalent and the volunteers? The Brexit party and UKIP may well end up jostling for the same seats. I take your comments on elections citing opinion polls very sceptically as they go against pretty rudimentary academic work on political parties and elections.... '
En Marche came from nowhere to win the 2017 legislative and presidential elections, Syriza did similarly in Greece, Lega Nord has come from a minor party to a major party in a short period, the Reform Party went from 1 seat to overtaking the Progressive Conservatives in Canada in just 1 election, even Trump had to take on established candidates to win the GOP nomination.
Having been involved in countless elections including as a candidate I can tell you you can canvass to your hearts content but it is pointless if you have barely any supporters, if however you have people flocking to you the activists to leaflet and canvass and the voters to get out to vote naturally follow
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
Well when you put it like that...
Nobody wants her there is not true.
The poll in the Mail on Sunday showed 43% want her to resign now but 33% only after a deal is agreed and 21% do not want her to resign. So 54% want her to stay in post until brexit is done but personally I think her standing down may be her only option
Of course the Brexiteers want her out but like so much of their incoherance they have nobody who could change the narrative or the numbers
Furthermore, the morphing of the conservative party into the English National Party is a cause of great regret to many of us who are one nation conservatives and now feel homeless
Interesting the papers are reporting a stop Boris move by his fellow conservative mps
Are the Brexit Party standing anywhere at the local elections?
We have 1 UKIP, 1 English Democrat and a few For Britain candidates in Epping Forest but no Brexit Party candidates, it seems they are focusing on the European elections first
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
Boris would have negotiated a far worse deal with the EU ?
Or rather he wouldn't have negotiated at all but postured and then accepted a far worse deal.
I think your second proposition is correct: he would have probably negotiated a worse deal for the UK, but he'd have done a better job of selling it.
I think this talk about Farage is being overblown and any European elections are not underway yet - If a week is a long-time in politics a month is a lifetime! If you make one man the focus of a campaign it will inevitably move from a strength to a weakness.
Farage does not have a clean slate as an MEP, indeed he has repeatedly been enmeshed in controversy about expenses and the inappropriate use of them. Money is Nigel Farage's weak point IMO and it is something he has repeatedly complained about not having enough of as his divorce from his German wife put finances under pressure.
Just a quick google search provides detailed information about expense claims that can prove the undoing of politicians:
People will view this negatively? Misusing EU funds... oh no!
We keep on being told that the UK pays £350 million a week, so some of the Farage expenses logically come from that. I don't think being in public office and abusing your position is a good advert. That money could have been spent on something of value not squandered in the way Farage did.
OK, as we're talking about the prospects of the Brexit party, there are a couple of questions:
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
In a GE they could choose to only put up candidates in constituencies where the sitting MP had voted against May's deal from a remainer perspective if they wanted to avoid splitting the Brexit vote.
Fair enough. I cannot reply easily as I find deleting all the previous comments difficult at the moment. Maybe the interactive function of the comments has changed.
Fair enough. I cannot reply easily as I find deleting all the previous comments difficult at the moment. Maybe the interactive function of the comments has changed.
How seriously should we take this Con "grassroots" vote of no confidence in Theresa May?
Could it actually get her out?
Nobody wants her there. She's taken the Tory party from one with a working majority, through one with a majority of 100+ nailed on, to one needing to grab on to the DUP for dear life - and now barely registering in the EU polls and doing seriously sub-thirty for a general election.
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
Boris would have negotiated a far worse deal with the EU ?
Or rather he wouldn't have negotiated at all but postured and then accepted a far worse deal.
I think your second proposition is correct: he would have probably negotiated a worse deal for the UK, but he'd have done a better job of selling it.
And this shows the heart of the problem - May is unable to sell anything.
Now that's not a problem if she employs someone else to do the selling but she didn't.
And after the fiasco of the Conservative 2017 GE campaign you would have thought that May would have learnt that.
But it seems neither May or anyone associated with her has.
Surely it is for 75th D Day landings event? Even Trump would make that one, if only to check out whether a new gold course could be built on Normandy coast.
Surely it is for 75th D Day landings event? Even Trump would make that one, if only to check out whether a new gold course could be built on Normandy coast.
I have zero time for him but if Raab is the alternative I’d take Boris . The unity candidate would be Gove but doubtful whether he’d make the last two .
It will have to be a Leaver so unless Hunt or Javid promise to blow up the Channel Tunnel and start deporting EU nationals than the nutjob Tory Membership won’t think they’re a true believer !
Comments
Only in this way can you track the extent to which real people feel they are the victims of real crimes.
That being said, there will still be societal changes. I remember one character in a Dorothy L Sayers novel saying "he's my man, he's got a right to hit me", which is not a sentiment you often hear expressed these days.
My Tory MP is a Brexiteer. If he stood as a Brexit party candidate, against a Tory, I am not sure who might win the seat.
Fucking Farage could end up just splitting the Brexit vote, which would be amusing.
1. Will the Brexit party manage a more efficient vote distribution than UKIP did in 2015. Remember then? Despite getting almost twice the vote share of the LibDems, they got only one seat, and that of a defector by a tiny margin.
2. Will the Brexit party be tactical voting friendly, or unfriendly? In other words, would Remainers tactically vote to stop the Brexit Party? (Alternatively, will they collect Labour Leavers looking to unseat Tories? Or will they be seen by Labour Leavers as Tories in Farage clothing?)
I think the issue that the Brexit Party has is that, especially without good local operations, then their vote is likely to be pretty inefficiently spread. It took the Alliance/LibDems almost 15 years from 1982 to 1997 to start successfully concentrating their vote. And that was despite an existing base of activists.
If remain won a referendum and Labour offered remain but the Lib Dems were demanding Remain + Euro as respecting the result I don't think that would do much for them...
There are sensible criticisms of the BCS:
1. It omits certain types of crime, such as identity theft, which are increasingly prevalent and can be equally bad for the victim as burglary.
2. It caps* the number of incidences of a particular type of crime per person at five. The reason for this is because otherwise domestic violence accounts for the vast bulk of recorded assault (with many victims recorded fifty of more incidences). In the interests of increasing transparency, they should record both sets of numbers.
* This has always been the case, so I can understand the reason why they don't want to change it because it makes current figures uncomprable with historics.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=10&UKIP=27&Green=8&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
I'm sorry to break it to you but many of the 40-odd percent Labour got in 2017 aren't into 'real socialism', that demographic isn't large enough. A large proportion is remainers who chose the least worst option to prevent a Conservative majority.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.136297311
Decent arb w Coral and Lads again, who go EVS
It is a second-order issue on the left.
52% of voters voted Leave, if he gets over half of them to back the Brexit Party if the Commons revoked Article 50 Farage probably wins a majority under FPTP
Farage does not have a clean slate as an MEP, indeed he has repeatedly been enmeshed in controversy about expenses and the inappropriate use of them. Money is Nigel Farage's weak point IMO and it is something he has repeatedly complained about not having enough of as his divorce from his German wife put finances under pressure.
Just a quick google search provides detailed information about expense claims that can prove the undoing of politicians:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/12/nigel-farage-eu-salary-docked-claim-misspent-public-funds
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/may/24/mps-expenses-ukip-nigel-farage
https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-paul-nuttall-8-ukip-meps-accused-misusing-eu-funds/
Could it actually get her out?
Desperate stuff.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1120427518291582976
June 11th revoke then...
HYUFD
Put the European elections totals of 27% Brexit Party, 22% for Labour and 15% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and UKIP/Brexit Party gets 289 seats and the Tories just 4
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=10&UKIP=27&Green=8&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
You do know that that won't happen, right?
Just as the SNP sweeping the board in 2015 or Trump was never supposed to happen?
52% of voters voted Leave, if he gets over half of them to back the Brexit Party if the Commons revoked Article 50 Farage probably wins a majority under FPTP
Trump was on the Republican ticket, he had party infrastructure that helped him win the electoral college. If Trump had been an independent candidate I doubt he would have done much better than Ross Perot. The SNP again had a viable infrastructure and the change in leadership of the SNP provided a boost in popularity at just the right time for the SNP to cash in at the 2015 election.
I sometimes get the feeling you have never been involved in a FPTP election or campaigned in an election if you think that opinion polls or referendum results magically transfer into another election result. The world does not work like that in FPTP and Incumbency is a powerful advantage worth thousands of votes potentially in a parliamentary constituency. The Brexit party has no infrastructure, no idea where the best concentration of their potential voters are other than wildly guessing that an area that might have voted Leave might be receptive to the Brexit party. In a GE the Tories and Labour target about 70 seats with campaign literature, telephone canvassing, campaign visits, opinion polling and the like. Where does the Brexit party get the funds to do something equivalent and the volunteers? The Brexit party and UKIP may well end up jostling for the same seats. I take your comments on elections citing opinion polls very sceptically as they go against pretty rudimentary academic work on political parties and elections....
Having buggered Brexit.
Against a Marxist.
Who she now sees as some of political ally who will bail her out.
Just how bad do those Tory MPs who backed her in December think Boris could have been to top that litany of disasters?
https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1120431495754260480
Or rather he wouldn't have negotiated at all but postured and then accepted a far worse deal.
'Put the European elections totals of 27% Brexit Party, 22% for Labour and 15% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and UKIP/Brexit Party gets 289 seats and the Tories just 4
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=10&UKIP=27&Green=8&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
You do know that that won't happen, right?
Just as the SNP sweeping the board in 2015 or Trump was never supposed to happen?
52% of voters voted Leave, if he gets over half of them to back the Brexit Party if the Commons revoked Article 50 Farage probably wins a majority under FPTP
Trump was on the Republican ticket, he had party infrastructure that helped him win the electoral college. If Trump had been an independent candidate I doubt he would have done much better than Ross Perot. The SNP again had a viable infrastructure and the change in leadership of the SNP provided a boost in popularity at just the right time for the SNP to cash in at the 2015 election.
I sometimes get the feeling you have never been involved in a FPTP election or campaigned in an election if you think that opinion polls or referendum results magically transfer into another election result. The world does not work like that in FPTP and Incumbency is a powerful advantage worth thousands of votes potentially in a parliamentary constituency. The Brexit party has no infrastructure, no idea where the best concentration of their potential voters are other than wildly guessing that an area that might have voted Leave might be receptive to the Brexit party. In a GE the Tories and Labour target about 70 seats with campaign literature, telephone canvassing, campaign visits, opinion polling and the like. Where does the Brexit party get the funds to do something equivalent and the volunteers? The Brexit party and UKIP may well end up jostling for the same seats. I take your comments on elections citing opinion polls very sceptically as they go against pretty rudimentary academic work on political parties and elections.... '
En Marche came from nowhere to win the 2017 legislative and presidential elections, Syriza did similarly in Greece, Lega Nord has come from a minor party to a major party in a short period, the Reform Party went from 1 seat to overtaking the Progressive Conservatives in Canada in just 1 election, even Trump had to take on established candidates to win the GOP nomination.
Having been involved in countless elections including as a candidate I can tell you you can canvass to your hearts content but it is pointless if you have barely any supporters, if however you have people flocking to you the activists to leaflet and canvass and the voters to get out to vote naturally follow
The poll in the Mail on Sunday showed 43% want her to resign now but 33% only after a deal is agreed and 21% do not want her to resign. So 54% want her to stay in post until brexit is done but personally I think her standing down may be her only option
Of course the Brexiteers want her out but like so much of their incoherance they have nobody who could change the narrative or the numbers
Furthermore, the morphing of the conservative party into the English National Party is a cause of great regret to many of us who are one nation conservatives and now feel homeless
Interesting the papers are reporting a stop Boris move by his fellow conservative mps
Fair enough. I cannot reply easily as I find deleting all the previous comments difficult at the moment. Maybe the interactive function of the comments has changed.
Now that's not a problem if she employs someone else to do the selling but she didn't.
And after the fiasco of the Conservative 2017 GE campaign you would have thought that May would have learnt that.
But it seems neither May or anyone associated with her has.
Crap slogan imho. Try 'Not Worth It"?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
I have zero time for him but if Raab is the alternative I’d take Boris . The unity candidate would be Gove but doubtful whether he’d make the last two .
It will have to be a Leaver so unless Hunt or Javid promise to blow up the Channel Tunnel and start deporting EU nationals than the nutjob Tory Membership won’t think they’re a true believer !
Imagine the two candidates are Hunt and Hancock.