Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mayor Pete takes the lead in New Hampshire amongst those nomin

245

Comments

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:
    Ugh, I thought Abbott was more sensible than that (atleast she seemed to not be as naive as Jegsy on the whole Russia/Salisbury saga).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a favourable long profile of Pete Buttigieg:

    https://www.wired.com/story/pete-buttigieg-revived-south-bend-with-tech-up-next-america

    As much as the detail contained in it is the fact that there are plenty of these profiles being written, and read. He looks set to be a very serious contender and I am not laying him at anything like present prices.

    I'm a bit annoyed with myself as I had to reback him after thinking stuff through - best to take medicine whilst it is cheap though.
    I have a general policy of laying candidates in races like this below a certain point. I'm breaking that policy in relation to him because I think he will go substantially shorter as he attracts more attention. I'll assess further then.

    I don't understand why Kamala Harris is staying so short.
  • Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.
    It tells you all you need to know about a large number of people who vote Leave. They probably wouldn't even recognise a Theresa May in an identity parade made up of members of the Garrick club.
    Thank fuck PB isn't remotely representative of real life. People like you shouldn't exist in real life.
    Your post tells more about who you are than me. I guess you are one of the more thuggish Tommy Robinson type Leave voter, ah thought so, and you still believe in it? dear dear. Sorry to spoil your day but Father Christmas isn't....whoops better not say.
    The only thing my post tells you is that I don't agree with what you spout on here. You can make up what you like about me. It's the Internet, not real life.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ugh, I thought Abbott was more sensible than that (atleast she seemed to not be as naive as Jegsy on the whole Russia/Salisbury saga).
    I'm looking forward to the corbyn administration. It'll at least be hugely entertaining in a car crash manner..
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    It's not going to be Buttigieg.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.

    A party called Change UK would logically be one that wanted Change rather than the status quo, so it could be fooling people
    CHange UK = CHUKA Party :D
    I’m odds on that’s no coincidence
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Mr. Isam, reminds me of Yes, Prime Minister, with the broadcast. If there's no change, high energy yellow wallpaper. If there's change, traditional oak panelling.


    Do you know I have never seen an episode of that programme, nor The Thick Of It?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    But the thing is that CHUK, to the extent they've cut through to the public at all, do not even seem to be viewed as an anti-Brexit party particularly,

    The perception seems to be that they're just an alternative Labour Party without Corbyn as leader. To be fair, there is quite a lot of (superficial) support for that idea, although ironically a lot of that support is from Labour Leave voters - a YouGov Welsh poll last week found the Tiggers getting slightly more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
    Given that Labour now appear well on the way to delivering Remain by indulging in a prolonged can kicking exercise, there is not a lot to chose in terms of Brexit between them and CHUK.

    Brexit aside, if you are looking for the former Labour voting working class demographic that is alienated by Corbyn's takeover of the Labour party and will thus support a breakaway party, previous Labour Leave voters are more typical of that than previous Labour Remain voters.
    Yup, it's been obvious for ages that the softest part of Labour's vote was the more working-class, elderly, more Brexit-supporting voters (the people who clutch their pearls at Corbyn's "links to the IRA" or not supporting Trident or whatever). For now, a lot of them seem to be finding the Tiggers as an empty vessel to project their ideal Labour Party onto - though whether that survives a campaign where the leading Tigger politicians make clear that they stand for the exact opposite of that is another question.
    Since they are disillusioned with Corbyn, you will have to hope that they do not end up falling for the appeal of a shiny new non-robotic Conservative leader later this year.

    The most recent YouGov (overall Con 32%, Lab 31%) had both Lab and Con on 31% amongst working class C2DEs. The lack of any significant difference is typical of many polls nowadays.
    The utter inability of class to predict voting patterns nowadays is no cause for celebration for a party whose historic mission was based on addressing class inequalities and organisation through trade unions. It indicates a very shallow support base that could easily transfer elsewhere if a more attractive offer came along.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Isam, I've never seen a Thick of It episode either.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
    In the context of a Euro election Brexit has changed entirely the meaning of centrist

    The spectrum is LibDem - TIG - Labour - Tory - Brexit - UKIP
    So Corbyn's Labour is now Centrist?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,039

    It's not going to be Buttigieg.

    Has he got a brother called Chip?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
    In the context of a Euro election Brexit has changed entirely the meaning of centrist

    The spectrum is LibDem - TIG - Labour - Tory - Brexit - UKIP
    So Corbyn's Labour is now Centrist?
    They're certainly in the centre on the Brexit issue. On most issues, no.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,039

    Mr. Isam, I've never seen a Thick of It episode either.

    Try the Parliament Channel. Back-to-back episodes.
  • Mr. Isam, I've never seen a Thick of It episode either.

    Try the Parliament Channel. Back-to-back episodes.
    More like the Comedy Channel.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:


    To be fair to Vince (of whose leadership I am a critic), this was behind his package of constitutional changes to create a supporters network, allow non members to stand as candidates, allow supporters a say in candidate selection, and enable the prospect of a non-MP party leader. All intended to create flexible structures that could be used to embrace whatever wider movement or defections might arise. Since TIG was formed he has also tried to engage with them positively, without much of a response.

    The constitutional changes got mauled at the LibDem Spring Conference, members identifying that they were being of stripped of being the primary decision makers. Conference agreed to create a supporters network but with none of the proposed powers.

    Snip

    Thanks for this. As a casual and not currently aligned keyboard warrior, the sort who rightly get a bit of stick off the leafletteer class, it's good to have a proper perspective.

    It says a lot that I'd totally forgotten Vince's reforms! What I would say is that they seem geared more to sucking non aligneds such as the Tiggers into the LD bucket as per the SPD. Less obvious to me from how you describe them how they could have been used to ally with the well established Green and Nations contingents.

    It just needs a bit of lateral thinking as to how enabling people to register as 'supporters', allowing supporters to choose candidates and to allow non-party members to be selected might be used.

    Unfortunately for Vince, LibDem members aren't stupid.

    Yes, I think we are on pretty much exactly the same page there. The means of doing the cooperation needs to sit external from the LD party, but it doesn't mean the LDs can't be prime movers in setting up and curating that cooperation.
    It does however need TIG to take off for that to happen, with the LibDems prepared to take more of a back seat. If TIG catches voters' imagination it could be game on, depending critically on whether a cross-party deal ideally rowing in PC and the Greens too (Scotland is slightly awkward but the SNP is pro-reform; just let them win). If TIG flops, it'll be back to politics as usual, since I don't see a scenario where the LibDems alone could get sufficient traction to defeat FPTnP.
    The failure of TIG to contest the Local Elections on 2nd May denies them a positive launching pad for any EU elections held on 23rd May. If any party gains momentum from this year's Locals , it is likely to be the LDs , Greens - and possibly Labour.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
    In the context of a Euro election Brexit has changed entirely the meaning of centrist

    The spectrum is LibDem - TIG - Labour - Tory - Brexit - UKIP
    So Corbyn's Labour is now Centrist?
    Probably, in the EU elections
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:
    A “not guilty” plea might have lacked credibility
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    But the thing is that CHUK, to the extent they've cut through to the public at all, do not even seem to be viewed as an anti-Brexit party particularly,

    more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
    de, if you are looking for the former Labour voting working class demographic that is alienated by Corbyn's takeover of the Labour party and will thus support a breakaway party, previous Labour Leave voters are more typical of that than previous Labour Remain voters.
    m to be finding the Tiggers as an empty vessel to project their ideal Labour Party onto - though whether that survives a campaign where the leading Tigger politicians make clear that they stand for the exact opposite of that is another question.
    Since they are disillusioned with Corbyn, you will have to hope that they do not end up falling for the appeal of a shiny new non-robotic Conservative leader later this year.

    The most recent YouGov (overall Con 32%, Lab 31%) had both Lab and Con on 31% amongst working class C2DEs. The lack of any significant difference is typical of many polls nowadays.
    The utter inability of class to predict voting patterns nowadays is no cause for celebration for a party whose historic mission was based on addressing class inequalities and organisation through trade unions. It indicates a very shallow support base that could easily transfer elsewhere if a more attractive offer came along.
    Ive heard long standing labour councillor comments canvassing in a ward theyve held since 1979, in the council estates hes never seen it so bad and with the boundaries changes to slightly disadvantages to current boundaries, expects to lose. Labour have never had such a bad response on the council estates.
    (northern leave voting town with an older population)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
    There is an element of truth in that , but it is likely that this year many Leave voters will be inclined to boycott the elections so depressing turnout. The MEP Roger Helm has already advocated this.
    Spoiling your ballot paper doesn't depress turnout.
    Was that what he suggested?
    Isn't he the "write Brexit in big letters" guy?
    Justin is wrong anyway. If you look at Helmer's tweet it referred to spoiling ballots in the Local Elections not the Euros.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    But the thing is that CHUK, to the extent they've cut through to the public at all, do not even seem to be viewed as an anti-Brexit party particularly,

    The perception seems to be that they're just an alternative Labour Party without Corbyn as leader. To be fair, there is quite a lot of (superficial) support for that idea, although ironically a lot of that support is from Labour Leave voters - a YouGov Welsh poll last week found the Tiggers getting slightly more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
    Yougov's latest Euro elections poll has Leavers going Brexit Party 21%, Tories 14%, UKIP 12%, Labour 5%.

    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%, Labour 16%, LD 11%, Tories 9%


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/g5fjrnocck/Results_190329_EUElecetion_w.pdf
    There is no such party as the 'Stay in the EU Party' and to simply assign that figure to CUK is bonkers.
    Especially given the very limited amount of broadcast media they’ll be allowed during the election period.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    F1: Red Bull reckon a set-up error was to blame for Verstappen's weak Bahrain pace.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    notme2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    But the thing is that CHUK, to the extent they've cut through to the public at all, do not even seem to be viewed as an anti-Brexit party particularly,

    more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
    de, if you are looking for the former Labour voting working class demographic that is alienated by Corbyn's takeover of the Labour party and will thus support a breakaway party, previous Labour Leave voters are more typical of that than previous Labour Remain voters.
    m to be finding the Tiggers as an empty vessel to project their ideal Labour Party onto - though whether that survives a campaign where the leading Tigger politicians make clear that they stand for the exact opposite of that is another question.
    Since they are disillusioned with Corbyn, you will have to hope that they do not end up falling for the appeal of a shiny new non-robotic Conservative leader later this year.

    The most recent YouGov (overall Con 32%, Lab 31%) had both Lab and Con on 31% amongst working class C2DEs. The lack of any significant difference is typical of many polls nowadays.
    The utter inability of class to predict voting patterns nowadays is no cause for celebration for a party whose historic mission was based on addressing class inequalities and organisation through trade unions. It indicates a very shallow support base that could easily transfer elsewhere if a more attractive offer came along.
    Ive heard long standing labour councillor comments canvassing in a ward theyve held since 1979, in the council estates hes never seen it so bad and with the boundaries changes to slightly disadvantages to current boundaries, expects to lose. Labour have never had such a bad response on the council estates.
    (northern leave voting town with an older population)
    Much of that response could reflect a general disillusionment with the competence of the political establishment as a whole - rather than strong Leave or Remain views per se.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Really interesting question to the PM by Nigel Dodds, and referenced on TPT, regarding the Parliamentary session.

    If there’s going to be six months of Brexit limbo, there’s pretty much going to have to be a Queen’s Speech - given that the last was two years ago following the June 2017 election.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    So farewell then Brexit.
    You were a bit of fun
    While you lasted.
    But not all that much actually.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    Sandpit said:

    Really interesting question to the PM by Nigel Dodds, and referenced on TPT, regarding the Parliamentary session.

    If there’s going to be six months of Brexit limbo, there’s pretty much going to have to be a Queen’s Speech - given that the last was two years ago following the June 2017 election.

    Notice, answer came there none.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    F1: Red Bull reckon a set-up error was to blame for Verstappen's weak Bahrain pace.

    They were set up with Honda engines, rather than Mercedes or Ferrari ones?

    Hope tomorrow’s practice sessions go better than they did a couple of years ago.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39526963
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    When precisely is this session of Parliament due to end?

    Here is what the Parliament website says:

    "This is a two year session. It started with the State Opening on 21 June 2017 and will run until the summer of 2019."

    If the next State Opening was in late June 2019 there would only be about three weeks before Summer recess - so seems it wouldn't be a big thing to delay State Opening until October.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the
    There is an element of truth in that , but it is likely that this year many Leave voters will be inclined to boycott the elections so depressing turnout. The MEP Roger Helm has already advocated this.
    Spoiling your ballot paper doesn't depress turnout.
    Was that what he suggested?
    Isn't he the "write Brexit in big letters" guy?
    Justin is wrong anyway. If you look at Helmer's tweet it referred to spoiling ballots in the Local Elections not the Euros.
    I take the point - when Helmer made his comments there was far less expectation of UK participation in the EU elections.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Sandpit, ha, you cheeky fellow.

    Red Bull were tasty in China last year, although Verstappen's contact with Vettel was less than glorious.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:


    To be fair to Vince (of whose leadership I am a critic), this was behind his package of constitutional changes to create a supporters network, allow non members to stand as candidates, allow supporters a say in constitutional changes got mauled at the LibDem Spring Conference, members identifying that they were being of stripped of being the primary decision makers. Conference agreed to create a supporters network but with none of the proposed powers.

    Snip

    Thanks for this. As a casual and not currently aligned keyboard warrior, the sort who rightly get a bit of stick off the leafletteer class, it's good to have a proper perspective.

    It says a lot that I'd totally forgotten Vince's reforms! What I would say is that they seem geared more to sucking non aligneds such as the Tiggers into the LD bucket as per the SPD. Less obvious to me from how you describe them how they could have been used to ally with the well established Green and Nations contingents.

    It just needs a bit of lateral thinking as to how enabling people to register as 'supporters', allowing supporters to choose candidates and to allow non-party members to be selected might be used.

    Unfortunately for Vince, LibDem members aren't stupid.

    Yes, I think we are on pretty much exactly the same page there. The means of doing the cooperation needs to sit external from the LD party, but it doesn't mean the LDs can't be prime movers in setting up and curating that cooperation.
    It does however need TIG to take off for that to happen, with the LibDems prepared to take more of a back seat. If TIG catches voters' imagination it could be game on, depending critically on whether a cross-party deal ideally rowing in PC and the Greens too (Scotland is slightly awkward but the SNP is pro-reform; just let them win). If TIG flops, it'll be back to politics as usual, since I don't see a scenario where the LibDems alone could get sufficient traction to defeat FPTnP.
    The failure of TIG to contest the Local Elections on 2nd May denies them a positive launching pad for any EU elections held on 23rd May. If any party gains momentum from this year's Locals , it is likely to be the LDs , Greens - and possibly Labour.
    Although I think David Owen had a point on TWIW a few weeks back in arguing that local elections are a distraction. Being a councillor is an end in itself, after all (and a lot of work), and getting from there to national success is a long and winding road. Owen argued that TIG needed to be a campaign movement for political change, focused entirely on the next GE.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    edited April 2019

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
    In the context of a Euro election Brexit has changed entirely the meaning of centrist

    The spectrum is LibDem - TIG - Labour - Tory - Brexit - UKIP
    So Corbyn's Labour is now Centrist?
    In a Euro election, yes. He probably leans Brexit but was willing to campaign for Remain, just as May did. In this sense they are in the same box. Neither of them is that bothered.

    The tension in politics at the moment is that we have both new and old spectrums pulling at the same time. Clearly in a broader sense he is still extreme.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    What did May (or spox?) mean by the DUP agreement lasting two financial years? When do they run?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:


    To be fair to Vince (of whose leadership I am a critic), this was behind his package of constitutional changes to create a supporters network, allow non members to stand as candidates, allow supporters a say in constitutional changes got mauled at the LibDem Spring Conference, members identifying that they were being of stripped of being the primary decision makers. Conference agreed to create a supporters network but with none of the proposed powers.

    Snip

    Thanks for this. As a casual and not currently aligned keyboard warrior, the sort who rightly get a bit of stick off the leafletteer class, it's good to have a proper perspective.

    It says a lot that I'd totally forgotten Vince's reforms! What I would say is that they seem geared more to sucking non aligneds such as the Tiggers into the LD bucket as per the SPD. Less obvious to me from how you describe them how they could have been used to ally with the well established Green and Nations contingents.

    It just needs a bit of lateral thinking as to how enabling people to register as 'supporters', allowing supporters to choose candidates and to allow non-party members to be selected might be used.

    Unfortunately for Vince, LibDem members aren't stupid.

    Yes, I think we are on pretty much exactly the same page there. The means of doing the cooperation needs to sit external from the LD party, but it doesn't mean the LDs can't be prime movers in setting up and curating that cooperation.
    .
    The failure of TIG to contest the Local Elections on 2nd May denies them a positive launching pad for any EU elections held on 23rd May. If any party gains momentum from this year's Locals , it is likely to be the LDs , Greens - and possibly Labour.
    Although I think David Owen had a point on TWIW a few weeks back in arguing that local elections are a distraction. Being a councillor is an end in itself, after all (and a lot of work), and getting from there to national success is a long and winding road. Owen argued that TIG needed to be a campaign movement for political change, focused entirely on the next GE.
    I heard him say that too , but cannot agree. Small parties thrive on the oxygen generated from electoral success achieved at by elections , but they are nowadays far less frequent. Any other opportunities need to be seized.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Really interesting question to the PM by Nigel Dodds, and referenced on TPT, regarding the Parliamentary session.

    If there’s going to be six months of Brexit limbo, there’s pretty much going to have to be a Queen’s Speech - given that the last was two years ago following the June 2017 election.

    Notice, answer came there none.
    Indeed so, and also that it came from the source of her wafer-thin majority.

    I think the DUP are about to pull the plug, we could be looking at an election before the summer. They have decided that the deal is not acceptable to them, the EU have decided it’s not up for negotiation and the PM intends to try and keep it alive after it’s been voted down three times.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited April 2019
    Assange is an utter fool. The Americans made no effort to get him until 2017. Even if he'd been charged, tried and found guilty in Sweden, the odds are he would have been safe back in Australia by then thus requiring the consent of the UK and Swedish foreign ministries for onward extradition - which means the Americans would likely not have bothered.

    Now, he's going to do jail time here and then be sent to the States.

    He's an utter fool.

    And he's still not as bad as Diane Abbott.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,479
    notme2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    But the thing is that CHUK, to the extent they've cut through to the public at all, do not even seem to be viewed as an anti-Brexit party particularly,

    more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
    de, if you are looking for the former Labour voting working class demographic that is alienated by Corbyn's takeover of the Labour party and will thus support a breakaway party, previous Labour Leave voters are more typical of that than previous Labour Remain voters.
    m to be finding the Tiggers as an empty vessel to project their ideal Labour Party onto - though whether that survives a campaign where the leading Tigger politicians make clear that they stand for the exact opposite of that is another question.
    Since they are disillusioned with Corbyn, you will have to hope that they do not end up falling for the appeal of a shiny new non-robotic Conservative leader later this year.

    The most recent YouGov (overall Con 32%, Lab 31%) had both Lab and Con on 31% amongst working class C2DEs. The lack of any significant difference is typical of many polls nowadays.
    The utter inability of class to predict voting patterns nowadays is no cause for celebration for a party whose historic mission was based on addressing class inequalities and organisation through trade unions. It indicates a very shallow support base that could easily transfer elsewhere if a more attractive offer came along.
    Ive heard long standing labour councillor comments canvassing in a ward theyve held since 1979, in the council estates hes never seen it so bad and with the boundaries changes to slightly disadvantages to current boundaries, expects to lose. Labour have never had such a bad response on the council estates.
    (northern leave voting town with an older population)
    To whom does he expect to lose?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Really interesting question to the PM by Nigel Dodds, and referenced on TPT, regarding the Parliamentary session.

    If there’s going to be six months of Brexit limbo, there’s pretty much going to have to be a Queen’s Speech - given that the last was two years ago following the June 2017 election.

    Notice, answer came there none.
    Indeed so, and also that it came from the source of her wafer-thin majority.

    I think the DUP are about to pull the plug, we could be looking at an election before the summer. They have decided that the deal is not acceptable to them, the EU have decided it’s not up for negotiation and the PM intends to try and keep it alive after it’s been voted down three times.
    I doubt if a new election would be to their benefit.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    What did May (or spox?) mean by the DUP agreement lasting two financial years? When do they run?

    The DUP's deal is not with Theresa May but with the Conservative party. I'm sure they will be reminding potential runners and riders of that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    ydoethur said:

    Assange is an utter fool. The Americans made no effort to get him until 2017. Even if he'd been charged, tried and found guilty in Sweden, the odds are he would have been safe back in Australia by then thus requiring the consent of the UK and Swedish foreign ministries for onward extradition - which means the Americans would likely not have bothered.

    Now, he's going to do jail time here and then be sent to the States.

    He's an utter fool.

    And he's still not as bad as Diane Abbott.

    Heart of stone etc. Hopefully the judge throws the book at him for breaching bail for seven years.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Assange is an utter fool. The Americans made no effort to get him until 2017. Even if he'd been charged, tried and found guilty in Sweden, the odds are he would have been safe back in Australia by then thus requiring the consent of the UK and Swedish foreign ministries for onward extradition - which means the Americans would likely not have bothered.

    Now, he's going to do jail time here and then be sent to the States.

    He's an utter fool.

    And he's still not as bad as Diane Abbott.

    Heart of stone etc. Hopefully the judge throws the book at him for breaching bail for seven years.
    By all accounts he already has.

    But I think the real irony is that Assange, as a fairly minor figure, is probably only being sought now because of the amount of embarrassment and frustration he has caused since his arrest.

    Positively karmic.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Assange is an utter fool. The Americans made no effort to get him until 2017. Even if he'd been charged, tried and found guilty in Sweden, the odds are he would have been safe back in Australia by then thus requiring the consent of the UK and Swedish foreign ministries for onward extradition - which means the Americans would likely not have bothered.

    Now, he's going to do jail time here and then be sent to the States.

    He's an utter fool.

    And he's still not as bad as Diane Abbott.

    Heart of stone etc. Hopefully the judge throws the book at him for breaching bail for seven years.
    I thought we believed in leniency in this country?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    edited April 2019
    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:


    To be fair
    Snip

    Thanks for this. As a casual and not currently aligned keyboard warrior, the sort who rightly ally forgotten Vince's reforms! What I would say is that they seem geared more to sucking non aligneds such as the Tiggers into the LD bucket as per the SPD. Less obvious to me from how you describe them how they could have been used to ally with the well established Green and Nations contingents.

    It just needs a bit of lateral thinking as to how enabling people to register as 'supporters', allowing supporters to choose candidates and to allow non-party members to be selected might be used.

    Unfortunately for Vince, LibDem members aren't stupid.

    Yes, I think we are on pretty much exactly the same page there. The means of doing the cooperation needs to sit external from the LD party, but it doesn't mean the LDs can't be prime movers in setting up and curating that cooperation.
    .
    The failure of TIG to contest the Local Elections on 2nd May denies them a positive launching pad for any EU elections held on 23rd May. If any party gains momentum from this year's Locals , it is likely to be the LDs , Greens - and possibly Labour.
    Although I think David Owen had a point on TWIW a few weeks back in arguing that local elections are a distraction. Being a councillor is an end in itself, after all (and a lot of work), and getting from there to national success is a long and winding road. Owen argued that TIG needed to be a campaign movement for political change, focused entirely on the next GE.
    I heard him say that too , but cannot agree. Small parties thrive on the oxygen generated from electoral success achieved at by elections , but they are nowadays far less frequent. Any other opportunities need to be seized.
    Yes but electoral success as a third party comes hard, even in local elections. I devoted pretty much five years of my life to win my ward from what had been three apparently safe Tory councillors. I did a long stint including a heroic defence in 2014, but have now moved on; there are no LibDems on my old council at all today.

    Even if TIG had the wherewithal to fight lots of local elections right now (which it doesn't), the reality is that probably no-one would stand a chance of being elected, even if they polled relatively well.

    The mistake the early SDP made was to assume that if they were polling 'well' (say 15-20%) this means they must win some seats somewhere. Sadly our crooked system doesn't work like that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Assange is an utter fool. The Americans made no effort to get him until 2017. Even if he'd been charged, tried and found guilty in Sweden, the odds are he would have been safe back in Australia by then thus requiring the consent of the UK and Swedish foreign ministries for onward extradition - which means the Americans would likely not have bothered.

    Now, he's going to do jail time here and then be sent to the States.

    He's an utter fool.

    And he's still not as bad as Diane Abbott.

    Heart of stone etc. Hopefully the judge throws the book at him for breaching bail for seven years.
    I thought we believed in leniency in this country?
    Do we?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Assange is an utter fool. The Americans made no effort to get him until 2017. Even if he'd been charged, tried and found guilty in Sweden, the odds are he would have been safe back in Australia by then thus requiring the consent of the UK and Swedish foreign ministries for onward extradition - which means the Americans would likely not have bothered.

    Now, he's going to do jail time here and then be sent to the States.

    He's an utter fool.

    And he's still not as bad as Diane Abbott.

    Heart of stone etc. Hopefully the judge throws the book at him for breaching bail for seven years.
    I thought we believed in leniency in this country?
    For people that seek to evade justice?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,479
    Nice line in the Guardian: there are fewer card-carrying Tories than Mormons in the UK.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,039
    Well I suppose anyone confronted by a knife-wielding thug tonight can draw comfort from the fact that Assange has been nailed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383

    Nice line in the Guardian: there are fewer card-carrying Tories than Mormons in the UK.

    That's not so remarkable. There are well over 200,000 Mormons in the UK.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Well I suppose anyone confronted by a knife-wielding thug tonight can draw comfort from the fact that Assange has been nailed.

    Well the police no longer have to wait to nab him, I suppose.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Really interesting question to the PM by Nigel Dodds, and referenced on TPT, regarding the Parliamentary session.

    If there’s going to be six months of Brexit limbo, there’s pretty much going to have to be a Queen’s Speech - given that the last was two years ago following the June 2017 election.

    Notice, answer came there none.
    Indeed so, and also that it came from the source of her wafer-thin majority.

    I think the DUP are about to pull the plug, we could be looking at an election before the summer. They have decided that the deal is not acceptable to them, the EU have decided it’s not up for negotiation and the PM intends to try and keep it alive after it’s been voted down three times.
    Yet May is going to try and manourve Parliament into choosing a permanent CU - which meets the DUP's main concern. Why wouldn't they stick around to enjoy three more years as kingmakers?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited April 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Really interesting question to the PM by Nigel Dodds, and referenced on TPT, regarding the Parliamentary session.

    If there’s going to be six months of Brexit limbo, there’s pretty much going to have to be a Queen’s Speech - given that the last was two years ago following the June 2017 election.

    Notice, answer came there none.
    Indeed so, and also that it came from the source of her wafer-thin majority.

    I think the DUP are about to pull the plug, we could be looking at an election before the summer. They have decided that the deal is not acceptable to them, the EU have decided it’s not up for negotiation and the PM intends to try and keep it alive after it’s been voted down three times.
    I doubt if a new election would be to their benefit.
    They’re in a difficult situation, in that they can’t support the government on the detail of their major (only!) policy, yet quite like the power they have as kingmakers, but not enough to get the Stormont Assembly back up even when there’s a billion extra in the kitty.

    Mrs May screwed up big time by not involving the DUP in the latter stages of the WA negotiations. Maybe they’ll vote against in a VoNC to see the back of her, then back another Conservative as a temporary leader?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Well I suppose anyone confronted by a knife-wielding thug tonight can draw comfort from the fact that Assange has been nailed.

    Well, we no longer have to waste police time pursuing a fugitive who is clearly either deranged or so dishonest that he is more or less divorced from reality anyway.

    To be blunt, his best course of action is probably to claim insanity, in which case it's unlikely he would be extradited even to Sweden.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    I'd probably forecast UKIP and the Brexit Party to get around 30-33% in total, but how it would split between them is difficult to predict.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    I'd probably forecast UKIP and the Brexit Party to get around 30-33% in total, but how it would split between them is difficult to predict.
    That's certainly possible if the Tory vote share falls below 15%.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Reports that Omar al-Bashir has been forced out as president of Sudan after 30 years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/11/sudan-army-ousts-bashir-after-30-years-in-power
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Assange is an utter fool. The Americans made no effort to get him until 2017. Even if he'd been charged, tried and found guilty in Sweden, the odds are he would have been safe back in Australia by then thus requiring the consent of the UK and Swedish foreign ministries for onward extradition - which means the Americans would likely not have bothered.

    Now, he's going to do jail time here and then be sent to the States.

    He's an utter fool.

    And he's still not as bad as Diane Abbott.

    Heart of stone etc. Hopefully the judge throws the book at him for breaching bail for seven years.
    I thought we believed in leniency in this country?
    Do we?
    Sounds an unEnglish sort of concept to me. I like the person who said that "a man knew where he stood under Common Law, and it was generally at the foot of the gallows."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    AndyJS said:

    Reports that Omar al-Bashir has been forced out as president of Sudan after 30 years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/11/sudan-army-ousts-bashir-after-30-years-in-power

    A step, but only a step, in the right direction. Sudan still has a long road to travel.

    If anyone doubts that, look at Egypt in the years after the fall of Mubarak under similar circumstances.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Poll of polls, Australia:

    Labor 52.6%
    Coalition 47.4%

    https://www.pollbludger.net
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Scott_P said:
    People keep making these links between Labour and Trump...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    People keep making these links between Labour and Trump...
    I wonder what the nature of that link might be? Couldn't be Putin could it. Surely not.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I'm not surprised that the polls are moving into a volatile phase. If an election occurs while the Tories are in maximum disarray or they choose a numbskull or ideologue for the next leader I can just about see Corbyn getting over the line. However a big negative vote against Corbyn is guaranteed almost irrespective of the Tories. He will now be seen as a potential PM so there will be no low-risk protest vote or vote to reduce the Tory majority and he will get more scrutiny in the media during the campaign. Furthermore, in the privacy of the polling booth how many left-leaning middle class voters will actually risk their financial well-being? Paying some extra tax is one thing but the prospect of a severe hit or total wipe out is another.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited April 2019
    They are addicted to circular debate and arguments over absurdly pedantic points.

    We need to get them onto PB where doing so causes less harm. And at least permits diversions on F1, cricket, trains and rocket tests.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    This is quite an interesting article and perhaps explains why Ecuador had finally had enough:

    https://www.wired.com/story/julian-assange-robert-stone-ecuadorian-embassy-filth/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    kle4 said:

    They are addicted to circular debate and arguments over absurdly pedantic points.

    We need to get them onto PB where doing so causes less harm. And at least permits diversions on F1, cricket, trains and rocket tests.
    You'd end up with a hardline Pineapple Research Group calling for all tropical fruit to be destroyed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    People keep making these links between Labour and Trump...
    I wonder what the nature of that link might be? Couldn't be Putin could it. Surely not.
    Let's not Russian to judgement. It might just be because senior figures in each organisation are appointed in the basis of who they're willing to have sex with.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,039

    kle4 said:

    They are addicted to circular debate and arguments over absurdly pedantic points.

    We need to get them onto PB where doing so causes less harm. And at least permits diversions on F1, cricket, trains and rocket tests.
    You'd end up with a hardline Pineapple Research Group calling for all tropical fruit to be destroyed.
    Bill Cash these past couple of days looks like someone who has had an unfortunate encounter with a pineapple.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    kle4 said:

    They are addicted to circular debate and arguments over absurdly pedantic points.

    We need to get them onto PB where doing so causes less harm. And at least permits diversions on F1, cricket, trains and rocket tests.
    You'd end up with a hardline Pineapple Research Group calling for all tropical fruit to be destroyed.
    Bill Cash these past couple of days looks like someone who has had an unfortunate encounter with a pineapple.
    There is no such thing as an 'unfortunate' encounter with a pineapple.

    If it's just about anywhere, it's fortunate. If it's on pizza, somebody's being malevolent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Assange is an utter fool. The Americans made no effort to get him until 2017. Even if he'd been charged, tried and found guilty in Sweden, the odds are he would have been safe back in Australia by then thus requiring the consent of the UK and Swedish foreign ministries for onward extradition - which means the Americans would likely not have bothered.

    Now, he's going to do jail time here and then be sent to the States.

    He's an utter fool.

    And he's still not as bad as Diane Abbott.

    Heart of stone etc. Hopefully the judge throws the book at him for breaching bail for seven years.
    I thought we believed in leniency in this country?
    Even if we do he breached his bail in an incredibly egregious fashion. It would not seem unreasonable that he receive a sentence on the harsher end of what is permissible. Any hardships he has faced have been of his own making.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,039
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    They are addicted to circular debate and arguments over absurdly pedantic points.

    We need to get them onto PB where doing so causes less harm. And at least permits diversions on F1, cricket, trains and rocket tests.
    You'd end up with a hardline Pineapple Research Group calling for all tropical fruit to be destroyed.
    Bill Cash these past couple of days looks like someone who has had an unfortunate encounter with a pineapple.
    There is no such thing as an 'unfortunate' encounter with a pineapple.

    If it's just about anywhere, it's fortunate. If it's on pizza, somebody's being malevolent.
    To add to my Bill Cash comment: Gammon with pineapple.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162
    edited April 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Poll of polls, Australia:

    Labor 52.6%
    Coalition 47.4%

    https://www.pollbludger.net

    Coalition ahead on the primary vote though and Morrison still ahead as preferred PM.

    It is possible to win most seats under AV in Australia if you only trail 49% to 51% as the Coalition did under Howard in 1998 and Labour under Hawke in 1990 so still all to play for
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    They are addicted to circular debate and arguments over absurdly pedantic points.

    We need to get them onto PB where doing so causes less harm. And at least permits diversions on F1, cricket, trains and rocket tests.
    You'd end up with a hardline Pineapple Research Group calling for all tropical fruit to be destroyed.
    Bill Cash these past couple of days looks like someone who has had an unfortunate encounter with a pineapple.
    There is no such thing as an 'unfortunate' encounter with a pineapple.

    If it's just about anywhere, it's fortunate. If it's on pizza, somebody's being malevolent.
    To add to my Bill Cash comment: Gammon with pineapple.
    I think when it comes to puns, you've had your chips.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    I'd probably forecast UKIP and the Brexit Party to get around 30-33% in total, but how it would split between them is difficult to predict.
    People don't care that much.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    I very much doubt if that would now be granted ahead of the American request. All other considerations aside, the time frames for investigating it are very tight if as expected he gets 12 months in prison here.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    Depressingly inevitable rush to the 'out of context' defence.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Depressingly inevitable rush to the 'out of context' defence.
    Well, it was out of context. The font size was a bit intimidating though
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Depressingly inevitable rush to the 'out of context' defence.
    Eaton's defence is he edited one of the contentious remarks "for reasons of space".

    I doubt he'll be getting many more interviews.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Depressingly inevitable rush to the 'out of context' defence.
    Eaton's defence is he edited one of the contentious remarks "for reasons of space".

    I doubt he'll be getting many more interviews.....
    My favourite example of that was a book by a man called David Fitzgerald, who wrote a book he thought proved Jesus didn't exist. When it was pointed out to him that he made many assertions but offered no actual evidence in support of any of them, he said he had included lots of evidence in the first draft but it made the book too long so he removed it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    edited April 2019

    kle4 said:

    They are addicted to circular debate and arguments over absurdly pedantic points.

    We need to get them onto PB where doing so causes less harm. And at least permits diversions on F1, cricket, trains and rocket tests.
    You'd end up with a hardline Pineapple Research Group calling for all tropical fruit to be destroyed.
    Bill Cash these past couple of days looks like someone who has had an unfortunate encounter with a pineapple.
    Like in this famous film scene of Satan in action :)

    https://youtu.be/42oucm_lj50
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    They are addicted to circular debate and arguments over absurdly pedantic points.

    We need to get them onto PB where doing so causes less harm. And at least permits diversions on F1, cricket, trains and rocket tests.
    You'd end up with a hardline Pineapple Research Group calling for all tropical fruit to be destroyed.
    Bill Cash these past couple of days looks like someone who has had an unfortunate encounter with a pineapple.
    Like in this famous film scene of Satan in action :)
    I was thinking it seems excessive to describe an opinion poll as 'satanic.'
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    They are addicted to circular debate and arguments over absurdly pedantic points.

    We need to get them onto PB where doing so causes less harm. And at least permits diversions on F1, cricket, trains and rocket tests.
    You'd end up with a hardline Pineapple Research Group calling for all tropical fruit to be destroyed.
    Bill Cash these past couple of days looks like someone who has had an unfortunate encounter with a pineapple.
    Like in this famous film scene of Satan in action :)
    I was thinking it seems excessive to describe an opinion poll as 'satanic.'
    Yes, hadn't picked up th link properly!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    isam said:

    Depressingly inevitable rush to the 'out of context' defence.
    Well, it was out of context. The font size was a bit intimidating though
    Let it go Sam, let it go.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    I'm not surprised that the polls are moving into a volatile phase. If an election occurs while the Tories are in maximum disarray or they choose a numbskull or ideologue for the next leader I can just about see Corbyn getting over the line. However a big negative vote against Corbyn is guaranteed almost irrespective of the Tories. He will now be seen as a potential PM so there will be no low-risk protest vote or vote to reduce the Tory majority and he will get more scrutiny in the media during the campaign. Furthermore, in the privacy of the polling booth how many left-leaning middle class voters will actually risk their financial well-being? Paying some extra tax is one thing but the prospect of a severe hit or total wipe out is another.

    It would be worth it for the expression on JRMs face :)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006

    Depressingly inevitable rush to the 'out of context' defence.
    Eaton's defence is he edited one of the contentious remarks "for reasons of space".

    I doubt he'll be getting many more interviews.....
    In Scruton's whiny response he says:

    'It is sad for Hungary that the two have fallen out, and that the old spectre of anti-Semitism has been reborn from their clash. Given their two aggressive personalities, however, it is hardly surprising.'

    Is he suggesting Soros bears some responsibilty for the resurgence of antisemitism in Hungary?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    Depressingly inevitable rush to the 'out of context' defence.
    Well, it was out of context. The font size was a bit intimidating though
    Let it go Sam, let it go.
    OK
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    I'm not surprised that the polls are moving into a volatile phase. If an election occurs while the Tories are in maximum disarray or they choose a numbskull or ideologue for the next leader I can just about see Corbyn getting over the line. However a big negative vote against Corbyn is guaranteed almost irrespective of the Tories. He will now be seen as a potential PM so there will be no low-risk protest vote or vote to reduce the Tory majority and he will get more scrutiny in the media during the campaign. Furthermore, in the privacy of the polling booth how many left-leaning middle class voters will actually risk their financial well-being? Paying some extra tax is one thing but the prospect of a severe hit or total wipe out is another.

    It would be worth it for the expression on JRMs face :)
    His CA deselecting Rees-Mogg for destroying the chances of leaving the EU would be worth it for the expression on JRM's face (among many, many other things).

    Electing an apologist for Holocaust deniers as PM would not.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    I'm not surprised that the polls are moving into a volatile phase. If an election occurs while the Tories are in maximum disarray or they choose a numbskull or ideologue for the next leader I can just about see Corbyn getting over the line. However a big negative vote against Corbyn is guaranteed almost irrespective of the Tories. He will now be seen as a potential PM so there will be no low-risk protest vote or vote to reduce the Tory majority and he will get more scrutiny in the media during the campaign. Furthermore, in the privacy of the polling booth how many left-leaning middle class voters will actually risk their financial well-being? Paying some extra tax is one thing but the prospect of a severe hit or total wipe out is another.

    It would be worth it for the expression on JRMs face :)
    His CA deselecting Rees-Mogg for destroying the chances of leaving the EU would be worth it for the expression on JRM's face (among many, many other things).

    Electing an apologist for Holocaust deniers as PM would not.
    PM Corbyn is still likely to be the better of the two options.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    I'm not surprised that the polls are moving into a volatile phase. If an election occurs while the Tories are in maximum disarray or they choose a numbskull or ideologue for the next leader I can just about see Corbyn getting over the line. However a big negative vote against Corbyn is guaranteed almost irrespective of the Tories. He will now be seen as a potential PM so there will be no low-risk protest vote or vote to reduce the Tory majority and he will get more scrutiny in the media during the campaign. Furthermore, in the privacy of the polling booth how many left-leaning middle class voters will actually risk their financial well-being? Paying some extra tax is one thing but the prospect of a severe hit or total wipe out is another.

    It would be worth it for the expression on JRMs face :)
    His CA deselecting Rees-Mogg for destroying the chances of leaving the EU would be worth it for the expression on JRM's face (among many, many other things).

    Electing an apologist for Holocaust deniers as PM would not.
    PM Corbyn is still likely to be the better of the two options.
    No he isn't - and that is the key reason why the Tories remain competitive when on performance alone right now they should be slugging it out with Plaid Cymru for seventh place.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I really hope Donald Tusk remains President of the EU Council after November .

    He’s fast turning into my favourite EU politician . A wonderful man who passionately believes in the EU and who still hopes against hope that the UK might change its mind .

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Poll of polls, Australia:

    Labor 52.6%
    Coalition 47.4%

    https://www.pollbludger.net

    Coalition ahead on the primary vote though and Morrison still ahead as preferred PM.

    It is possible to win most seats under AV in Australia if you only trail 49% to 51% as the Coalition did under Howard in 1998 and Labour under Hawke in 1990 so still all to play for
    That's right, Antony Green's swingometer on ABC News says the Coalition could stay in power with a Labor 2PP voted of 50.6% on uniform swing.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Was there another vote on changing exit day in UK legislation, or is that still set at June 30th following the vote on Tuesday?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    nico67 said:

    I really hope Donald Tusk remains President of the EU Council after November .

    He’s fast turning into my favourite EU politician . A wonderful man who passionately believes in the EU and who still hopes against hope that the UK might change its mind .

    He is the sort of sane leader that we need. Not autocratic or bombastic and willing to find a way through the maze. The EU27 are fortunate indeed.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    nico67 said:

    I really hope Donald Tusk remains President of the EU Council after November .

    He’s fast turning into my favourite EU politician . A wonderful man who passionately believes in the EU and who still hopes against hope that the UK might change its mind .

    He can't remain - it's a fixed 30-month term which can be renewed only once, and his second term expires 30th Nov.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    I really hope Donald Tusk remains President of the EU Council after November .

    He’s fast turning into my favourite EU politician . A wonderful man who passionately believes in the EU and who still hopes against hope that the UK might change its mind .

    He is the sort of sane leader that we need. Not autocratic or bombastic and willing to find a way through the maze. The EU27 are fortunate indeed.
    True and you know he’s a huge Anglophile or should I say Britofile! Lol

    I think if the UK decided to stay Tusk would burst into tears of happiness .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    I really hope Donald Tusk remains President of the EU Council after November .

    He’s fast turning into my favourite EU politician . A wonderful man who passionately believes in the EU and who still hopes against hope that the UK might change its mind .

    He is the sort of sane leader that we need. Not autocratic or bombastic and willing to find a way through the maze. The EU27 are fortunate indeed.
    If only the President of the Commission wasn't somebody who makes May look like a heavyweight.

    On that subject, do we have a list of Spitzenkandidaten yet? Or will that only be confirmed when the stitch up, er, appointment is made?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    I really hope Donald Tusk remains President of the EU Council after November .

    He’s fast turning into my favourite EU politician . A wonderful man who passionately believes in the EU and who still hopes against hope that the UK might change its mind .

    He can't remain - it's a fixed 30-month term which can be renewed only once, and his second term expires 30th Nov.
    Oh no I’ll really miss him . The Brexit soap opera won’t be quite the same without him .
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    nico67 said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    I really hope Donald Tusk remains President of the EU Council after November .

    He’s fast turning into my favourite EU politician . A wonderful man who passionately believes in the EU and who still hopes against hope that the UK might change its mind .

    He is the sort of sane leader that we need. Not autocratic or bombastic and willing to find a way through the maze. The EU27 are fortunate indeed.
    True and you know he’s a huge Anglophile or should I say Britofile! Lol

    I think if the UK decided to stay Tusk would burst into tears of happiness .
    Tusk spoke virtually no English when appointed in 2015, yet now is more articulate in English than many of our own. Impressive indeed.
This discussion has been closed.