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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mayor Pete takes the lead in New Hampshire amongst those nomination contenders younger than 72yo Trump
While we have all been focused on the developments on Brexit there has been a lot of movement in the fight for the Democratic nomination for next year’s White House race. This starts the hot up in a few weeks when the first of the Dem Primary TV debate debates is held.
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(you heard it here first
We should be at the stage already where there are broad understandings between the at least 27 MPs who occupy that corner of the commons, not just on issues like Brexit, but on electoral strategy. If this needs some Clause 4 type surgery on constitutions, if this needs local associations to be set up ready to cooperate, please do that work, but start now - do not be afraid of those few who think social democrat and old school liberal wings are already an uncomfortably broad church (clue: no, you are not a classical liberal even if you read the Orange Book) and huff off to wear a slightly deeper shade of orange.
Do it, do it now, let's get to a point where local LD, CHUK, Plaid, Green have a mechanism that allows for local alliances to come to agreements on candidates to put forward. Something that, even if not everywhere, works in many places. And let's work, on a more limited basis, with the SNP (non contention in Grampian and Edinburgh S perhaps plus develop a clear set of principles within the core cooperation group on how referenda and devolution power changes are conducted) and towards something broader than the Alliance in NI (preferably before the SDLP realign cross border).
TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.
If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-
Labour 22%,
Conservative 20%
Brexit 14%
UKIP 12%
Change 10%
Lib Dem 10%
Green 6%.
dyedwoolie said:
' Polling is mixed on it. Their party status will be sorted in the next couple of weeks and they already have regional set ups in place. Theh should start figuring in local by elections over the summer.
If they can avoid a GE 2019 they ought to become established and getting 5 to 10% in the euros as polling suggests is possible will put them on the map'.
But the SDP on its own was scoring 30% plus in hypothetical polls in Spring 1981 prior to the Warrington by election held in July that year. TIG are not in the same ball park - more akin to KilroySilk's Veritas!
Turnout is a total irrelevance in this context.
The most passionate voters are likely to be Remainers, followed by some forms of Brexit. Lab and Cons will be in big trouble, especially the latter.
https://twitter.com/DailyMirror/status/1116339331290075136
Might well be right. With Brexit-motivated voters, UKIP could probably have done pretty well here, but Farage will sabotage them. Ditto LDs with the CHUK(a) party.
The constitutional changes got mauled at the LibDem Spring Conference, members identifying that they were being of stripped of being the primary decision makers. Conference agreed to create a supporters network but with none of the proposed powers.
TIG is very much like the SDP between 81-83: a reasonable size group in Parliament, most clinging to the idea that they still hold to the values of their previous party (which that party has abandoned), very Westminster focused and with a negative view of the LibDems and little understanding of what it means to be and campaign as a third party in our political system. The SDP was exactly like this in 82, with an army of new members most entirely new to politics, thinking that their decent poll ratings would propel them into a position of influence. The 1983 election, where almost all the defecting MPs lost their seats and the Liberals became the 'senior' party both in parliament and in the country, was the shock the SDP needed to realise the weakness of its position and started the process of rethinking that eventually led to merger.
There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.
I can see them doing very well.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1116326060826689538
Scott Walker 24% (the Wisconsin governor, not the singer!)
Ted Cruz 14%
Rand Paul 12%
Jeb Bush 10%
Marco Rubio 8%
Chris Christie 8%
Mick Huckabee 7%
Ben Carson 7%
Rick Perry 4%
Other/Not sure 7%
Jus' sayin'
And both remainers and leavers will be urging people to use them to make their view on the biggest political issue of our lifetime known.
Not so good for the big parties, especially the Tories (Labour at least has its activists)
Hence May is still thinking she can avoid the elections altogether. Very clear from her answers today.
As a separate point, what could well prove highly toxic for the TIG MPS would be a failure to support a VONC tabled by Corbyn. Were that to occur, Labour can effectively label them as 'Tories Little Helpers'.
The SDP had little choice back in the 1980s other than to reach a deal with the Liberals. As it was , few seats were won - but a split vote would have proved disastrous for both parties.
In the context you used it, turnout is a complete irrelevance. Actually, that's not quite true because if anything it undermines your current* position. The lower the turnout, the more likely it is to inflate those with strong opinions on the EU question, which means ardent Remainers. I would suggest Brexiteers, but the same doesn't quite apply because 1. they'd be contesting something in which they don't believe and 2. they are already being encouraged to boycott it.
Hence why I think TIG could do superbly and win outright.
* in deliciously patronising fashion, I'm assuming you won't hold onto this stance for too much longer
Edit to add: I should think EU residents turnout for the EP elections will be proportionally far higher than that of the electorate as a whole. They will be supremely motivated to do so.
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1116331234228166656
Anyway, there are good compelling reasons for suggesting that TIG might do very well indeed.
Last time that May "used" a break, she came back with the idea of holding a GE.
It says a lot that I'd totally forgotten Vince's reforms! What I would say is that they seem geared more to sucking non aligneds such as the Tiggers into the LD bucket as per the SPD. Less obvious to me from how you describe them how they could have been used to ally with the well established Green and Nations contingents.
The perception seems to be that they're just an alternative Labour Party without Corbyn as leader. To be fair, there is quite a lot of (superficial) support for that idea, although ironically a lot of that support is from Labour Leave voters - a YouGov Welsh poll last week found the Tiggers getting slightly more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
Does the EU matter? Well, those fed up of all this may not vote but I can assure you that Remainers will be pushed hard to vote for TIG. So it will be a battle royal between TIG and Brexit parties, with the added problem that for the latter the elections shouldn't be happening and they're to an institution in whom they don't believe.
I think the greatest traction will be for the pro-Remain EU parties. As has been mentioned on here, the UK currently has the most passionately pro-European voters in the whole of Europe.
Let love shine, and we will find a way to come together can make things better.
Though she's getting on a bit now to be Prime Minister.
Unfortunately for Vince, LibDem members aren't stupid.
My personal view remains that the next election should be fought on a broad alliance with a cross-party platform to reform politics and defeat the two old tired parties, and as much standing down to allow one candidate to carry the banner as possible. Such an arrangement would have to be nailed down between the parties as separate organisations; it was never realistic to expect the LibDems to be able to gather everyone in as supporters.
Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%, Labour 16%, LD 11%, Tories 9%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/g5fjrnocck/Results_190329_EUElecetion_w.pdf
Brexit aside, if you are looking for the former Labour voting working class demographic that is alienated by Corbyn's takeover of the Labour party and will thus support a breakaway party, previous Labour Leave voters are more typical of that than previous Labour Remain voters.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1383782/Madonna-is-role-model-for-Tory-women.html
Let your Brexit go with the flow
A party called Change UK would logically be one that wanted Change rather than the status quo, so it could be fooling people
https://www.wired.com/story/pete-buttigieg-revived-south-bend-with-tech-up-next-america
As much as the detail contained in it is the fact that there are plenty of these profiles being written, and read. He looks set to be a very serious contender and I am not laying him at anything like present prices.
The spectrum is LibDem - TIG - Labour - Tory - Brexit - UKIP