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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Tories lost a Brecon and Radnor by-election it could be
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Tories lost a Brecon and Radnor by-election it could be the end
One of the significant constitutional changes that came out of the coalition era was a process for MPs to be recalled. We saw this used for the first time in Northern Ireland last year and we are seeing a recall petition taking place in Peterborough at the moment.
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The Irish may be crapping themselves but at least they're dong something about it rather than rolling about the beshitted bed and being laughed at.
https://twitter.com/tradasro/status/1114430431871606784
Came in on the 6.20 to make up all my GN losses. Many thanks!
The man deserves it for being so stupid.
But at the same time I cannot see the Liberal Democrats taking this even under these circumstances. Their organisation is moribund, their electorate has been shrinking for years (this was one that could have tipped in 2010) and the only candidate who might win it for them is most unlikely to give up her role in the assembly.
Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya, or even Ian Lavery (who of course has been convicted or even prosecuted despite some distinctly peculiar financial actions).
If he stood, and it looked like he was being hounded, I could see the very cussed voters of this seat re-electing him to annoy his opponents.
That's how I know we're finished.
We didn't realise but the big one happened in 2016.
If he's a hit, it'll finally wipe out the dinosaurs for good and all.
But what can we come up with for tuition fees and the Liberal Democrats?
Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.
I suspect that if 10% was not reached in the NI seat, where you would think that SF voters would be strongly motivated to recall a DUP MP, then it will be quite hard to succeed with a partisan petition anywhere else. I'd expect a petition in B&R to fail if the Conservative Party stand by their MP.
Peterborough is different because Labour have turned against their erstwhile representative.
One wing of the party hates the other wing with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.
I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.
I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.
On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
There are people on both extremes of the party - and their fans on here - who I despise more than Labour, many of whom I actually like. And they probably feel the same way about me.
This is just what it was like before 1997.
These were committee members of mine whilst I was chairman, so pretty committed and ultra loyal.
Nick Clegg = Arthur Percival.
But she also repeatedly lied to the judge and tried to avoid being convicted at all, and has claimed her conviction is a result of racism rather than her own stupidity. As I understand it, Davies did not, instead pleading guilty. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
That is, after all, what we thought we were getting with Mrs May.
If only they could find a way to shuffle Corbyn off into retirement.
The split isn't just about the EU.
There's a strong correlation between the ERG and socially conservative views which the One Nation wing finds anathema to them.
It is said more than one member of the ERG has privately talked about ending same sex marriage and condemning those hetrosexual couples that have children out of wedlock.
Doesn't matter if Con MPs hate each other - what matters is voters.
Re Brexit - 90%+ of voters don't care or aren't even aware of the detail. Doesn't matter in the slightest to voters whether we are in a customs union or not. Most people haven't the faintest idea what it even is.
Only two things matter:
Do we Leave - Yes or No
Does immigration go down - Yes or No.
Forget everything else.
If we do Leave and Con gets a new leader literally everything people are getting worked up about now will be forgotten.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-47824367
I think the DUP vote against the Government in VONC, and if the ERGers VONC the government then the Tories get gubbed in the general election and we have a Corbyn Premiership.
If the VONC doesn't pass then the next Tory leadership contest (which would start soon) will be dominated in the MPs section by the likes of Boris Johnson and Raab promising to be very hardline in the next phase of the EU talks.
The point is that there are a handful of towns where over half the population live - Ystradgynlais, Brecon, Builth, Knighton, Presteigne, Crickhowell and Llandrindod. Those are very small towns, and you can be anywhere in them in five minutes' brisk walk. So the logistics are less complex than in say, Cannock Chase, where there are several large centres of population rather ill-served with civic centres.
As it happens, I agree with you. I don't think it's likely, and I would think that even if the Tories disowned him. But it isn't exactly tough going to get five thousand or so signatures compared to the 6-7000 elsewhere.
Of course, the easiest place should be Orkney. Just as well for Alistair Carmichael they can't be launched on a whim...
Hasn't his two plus years of failure been enough for them ?
She seems incredibly ill-informed, nasty and unintelligent. In other words, a perfect UKIP candidate.
But if we applied that rule rigidly, Corbyn would get life and Francois and Gardiner would by dragged to Tyburn and - hmmm. Hold on. This idea is starting to have merits...
But, it wouldn't be pretty.
But Conservative MPs prefer to play their games.
Some of them think we still get a transition with No Deal.
Heck even a former Brexit Secretary thought that.
+ On the one hand, we know that people, generally speaking, can't be arsed to do things that involve, well, getting off their arses. The first attempt at recall by petition, in North Antrim last year, failed because the 10% threshold wasn't reached.
+ On the other hand, the bar for success is lower in Brecon & Radnorshire because it's a Welsh constituency and therefore under-sized. Also, the Lib Dems are the challengers there and they tend to be good at mobilizing support.
Thus, it is entirely possible that the Conservatives could lose the Welsh seat whilst being deprived of the opportunity to capture the English one. Needless to say, this would represent a suboptimal outcome for them.
I don't think Government policy shouldn't discriminate against them in the tax & welfare system by effectively making it more financially rewarding to live apart.
That is also however why when he goes, Tory support is likely to drop off a cliff.
To paraphrase Marc Antony "Friends, PBers, Countrymen, I come to bury the Tory Party, not to praise it".
I'm not convinced - when HYUFD sees this, he will go on about the Corn Laws, the quarter of a century of opposition in the 19th Century etc, etc,
There are perhaps two more relevant points - first, nature abhors a vacuum. If the current centre-right Party splits, one or two more will take its place. There will always be a natural counterpoint to any Government whether it be from the centre left or centre right. The problem for a divided centre-right (as the centre left found in the 1980s) is under FPTP it is feted to spend time in opposition until the dynamic changes.
The second point is the Conservative Party has survived for so long by being pragmatic about the world. After the defeat of 1945, the Reform Group led by men like Butler, MacLeod and Heath forced the Party to recognise they couldn't turn the clock back on nationalisation and above all the welfare state so the only way to return to power was to accept them but persuade the electorate they could and would be run better by the Conservatives.
The Conservatives were no longer the party of Waldron Smithers but became a modern party and got back into power relatively quickly.
After the rout of 1997, the Conservatives came to accept Welsh and Scottish devolution because it was their only way back into the politics of those nations and also a Mayor in London as it gave them a chance in a city from which their grasp was being loosened. It took three defeats but eventually Cameron emerged as the heir to Blair and, with the notable exception of the Iraq War, accepted most of the Blair agenda while simultaneously and aided and abetted by the Orange Bookers, presided over a brief convergence of conservative and liberal thinking which led to the Coalition in 2010.
The parties that adapt survive - those that don't are condemned to oblivion. The Conservatives will survive - they may fragment for a longer or shorter period but once Europe becomes less salient the question will then become what does a conservative 2030s look like, how is it achieved and how it can be sold to the people of that era as the way forward?
FWIW, I've been impressed with Ken Clarke throughout this process. Despite not agreeing with him, he's been honest and acted with integrity.
I would argue their view is a parochial one that will not be shared by the average voter PROVIDING the next GE comes after the present impasse is resolved.
Most people just do not care about the EU anywhere near as much as they care about how a future government will impact them and their families financially.
And for people who work hard and want to get on and provide for their families there is only one realistic choice.
(That and I hope to have vote in the next Tory leadership contest which might save mu party and the country.)
That 90 Tory MPs voted against the SI to extend Article 50 shows we're unfit for government.
Not Oxfam then.
The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.
The big difference with the mid 1990's is that the Opposition are as divided and disliked as the government are.
Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?
Nasty Party anyone
"Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained? Is this not why you are here?"
You need to check your moral compass Meeks.
Seats || Votes
LAB: 541 || 55.0%
SNP: 56 || 4.5%
LDM: 25 || 14.0%
SF: 10 || 0.9%
PLC: 4 || 0.7%
DUP: 4 || 0.4%
CON: 3 || 14.5%
IND: 2
GRN: 1 || 2.0%
UUP: 1 || 0.4%
ALL: 1 || 0.4%
SDLP: 1 || 0.3%
On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
Actually makes my skin crawl thinking about it.