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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Never say never. The Conservatives have taken a sledgehammer to their coalition. The party that once was the natural home of those voters who valued practical management and economic prudence has discarded those voters. They will not return any time soon.
    If Brexit is reversed, they'll need a Clause 4 moment on Europe to convince people they can be trusted not to drag us down this road again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    How a General Election would look if 18-24's only were allowed to vote:

    Seats || Votes

    LAB: 541 || 55.0%
    SNP: 56 || 4.5%
    LDM: 25 || 14.0%
    SF: 10 || 0.9%
    PLC: 4 || 0.7%
    DUP: 4 || 0.4%
    CON: 3 || 14.5%
    IND: 2
    GRN: 1 || 2.0%
    UUP: 1 || 0.4%
    ALL: 1 || 0.4%
    SDLP: 1 || 0.3%

    What's your source for that?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    As I see it, the Tories position rests on 3 things.
    1 The economy. People at the bottom are struggling, but aren't losing their jobs or their homes.
    2 May. Inexplicably to me, she is the most popular politician in the country. But I am not the target audience.
    3 Corbyn. As many regulars will attest, he is a "good enough " reason to vote Tory.

    While these 3 apply, they will continue to lead/tie in the polls whatever the splits.
    However, we are due a recession. Regardless of Brexit it is time. And the international outlook doesn't look great.
    Mays time is pretty much up. She can only limp on for so long. She has alienated too many in her own Party. Whosoever follows will probably be not as popular, especially after a likely brutal contest to succeed.
    Any other leader for Labour than the 70 yo incumbent will, by contrast, be more electorally palatable for potential switchers.
    It is like a 3 legged stool. Kick away one of these legs, and you can remain upright with effort. 2, and you need to be a circus acrobat. All 3, and you'll end up on your arse in a heap.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Well that’s only true if turnout is decent; if we do end up in a period of increasing voter apathy then either party could be vulnerable to an insurgency.


  • I’m disappointed you didn’t capitalise Will and People. It would be in accordance with the rest of your posting.

    Deary me, is that the best strawman you can knock up.

    I'm getting the impression you may be the forum cretin.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

    I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

    Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

    Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

    Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Tory party are going nowhere. The frontrunners for their leadership seem perfectly electable to me and some are very talented. Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid are probably much better qualified potential leaders than Cameron was.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Thanks @bunnco - good luck for 2nd May!

    I am hearing the same from party friends in other parts of the country. The constellation of our support is changing, but it is not collapsing.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    RoyalBlue said:


    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.

    That's not what is being suggested. The suggestion isn't a challenge from without but a challenge from within. If a Party's internal factions become so irreconciled as to be manageable schism is the only option. Only 28 Labour MPs joined the SDP but they came close to undermining Labour and replacing it as the main alternative Government to the Conservatives.

    Let's say 30 Conservative MPs join a new centre-right force along with dozens of councillors, activists and hundreds of members. That will have an impact and an effect - one might be that competing centre-right parties might allow the LDs, Labour or Greens to advance.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    edited April 2019
    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    I think the Tory Party is vulnerable on its centre left flank with voters put off by it all.

    I think things are fragmenting and we could see a lot of MPs elected on say 25% of the vote.

    We don't have to be replaced by UKIP/The Brexit Party, think of it more like the reverse of the SDP helping the Tories in 1983.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298



    Never say never. The Conservatives have taken a sledgehammer to their coalition. The party that once was the natural home of those voters who valued practical management and economic prudence has discarded those voters. They will not return any time soon.

    Didn't a recent poll showed a majority preferred No Deal to Remain?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    bunnco said:

    So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

    I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

    Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

    Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

    Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

    I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    I think the Tory Party is vulnerable on its centre left flank with voters put off by it all.

    I think things are fragmenting and we could see a lot of MPs elected on say 25% of the vote.

    We don't have to be replaced by UKIP/The Brexit Party, think of it more like the reverse of the SDP helping the Tories in 1983.
    Again, I can't see TIG troubling the scorers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    rkrkrk said:

    Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid are probably much better qualified potential leaders than Cameron was.

    That's settting the bar pretty low, in all fairness. It's like saying somebody has greater personal integrity than Alistair Campbell.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
  • Sean_F said:


    I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.

    Ah the 90s, when the Tories lost 2,000 council seats in a night.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    So, basically he's saying exactly what I was saying from before the referendum...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    bunnco said:

    So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

    I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

    Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

    Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

    Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

    Are you in Norman Lamb's seat?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    What kind of a QC would he be if he couldn't argue both sides of the case?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    The two statements are in no way incompatible and it is dishonest to try and portray them as such. It is perfectly logical to say that the case for leaving is overwhelming but also that it neds to be done with great care in a phased and graduated way. Indeed some Leavers have been saying this all along.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Scottish Labour collapsed, of course, because the SNP usurped it on the centre-left. There is - at the moment - no equivalent rival for the Conservatives with anything approaching an economically liberal message. And FPTP really does murder challenger parties.

    If the Liberal Democrats hadn't had a total (albeit understandable) nervous breakdown after the 2015 election and retreated, gibbering, into their nice, comfy, soft-left Faux Labour cave to lick their wounds then they might've been available to take up the position. But we're well past that stage now.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid are probably much better qualified potential leaders than Cameron was.

    That's settting the bar pretty low, in all fairness. It's like saying somebody has greater personal integrity than Alistair Campbell.
    Well you'll know better than me, but if either becomes the next PM I would have thought their CV would fare favourably with most of our prime ministers on obtaining the job. Both have had very successful business careers from the looks of it.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Sean_F said:


    I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.

    We've been led up the garden path by canvassing anecdotes before so while I'm sure Buncco found rose petals strewn in his path his experience may or may not be typical and if I've learned anything from my years of canvassing, people can be excellent liars at times.

    I think this will be a good election to be an Independent and as I've said before there are plenty of increasingly well-organised and well-financed independent "groups" out there consisting a number of seats in any given authority.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580



    I’m disappointed you didn’t capitalise Will and People. It would be in accordance with the rest of your posting.

    Deary me, is that the best strawman you can knock up.

    I'm getting the impression you may be the forum cretin.
    Glad to see you are getting the hang of the place already. Though to be honest he is more of the forum troll :)

    Oh and welcome.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    The two statements are in no way incompatible and it is dishonest to try and portray them as such. It is perfectly logical to say that the case for leaving is overwhelming but also that it neds to be done with great care in a phased and graduated way. Indeed some Leavers have been saying this all along.
    Isn’t underestimating the complexity of Brexit rather a serious mistake for the government to make?

    One might even seek to hold senior members of that government responsible and expect them to do the honourable thing and resign.

    Terribly old-fashioned I know.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    rkrkrk said:



    Never say never. The Conservatives have taken a sledgehammer to their coalition. The party that once was the natural home of those voters who valued practical management and economic prudence has discarded those voters. They will not return any time soon.

    Didn't a recent poll showed a majority preferred No Deal to Remain?
    No that was more lies from the ERG . YouGov found only 26% would prefer no deal as an outcome . Indeed YouGov were so disgusted with the misreporting of their poll they put out a press release .
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
    To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    dixiedean said:

    As I see it, the Tories position rests on 3 things.
    1 The economy. People at the bottom are struggling, but aren't losing their jobs or their homes.
    2 May. Inexplicably to me, she is the most popular politician in the country. But I am not the target audience.
    3 Corbyn. As many regulars will attest, he is a "good enough " reason to vote Tory.

    While these 3 apply, they will continue to lead/tie in the polls whatever the splits.
    However, we are due a recession. Regardless of Brexit it is time. And the international outlook doesn't look great.
    Mays time is pretty much up. She can only limp on for so long. She has alienated too many in her own Party. Whosoever follows will probably be not as popular, especially after a likely brutal contest to succeed.
    Any other leader for Labour than the 70 yo incumbent will, by contrast, be more electorally palatable for potential switchers.
    It is like a 3 legged stool. Kick away one of these legs, and you can remain upright with effort. 2, and you need to be a circus acrobat. All 3, and you'll end up on your arse in a heap.

    I basically agree except for the point about Corbyn. The strength of opposition is based on dislike/fear of the "hard left" takeover of Labour not just Corbyn's weaknesses. He actually has personal characteristics that appeal to some voters. There are plenty of potential Labour leaders that would score as badly or worse than JC. McDonell is cleverer, more articulate and a better interviewee but would he get more support? I doubt it. There are plenty in the shadow cabinet who might be contenders but who are palpably useless. Starmer is relatively competent and often named as a potential leader but would he get the dominant left vote internally? Would either Starmer or Thornberry appeal strongly across different groups of voters? Of course against certain potential choices for the Tories they could do relatively well but against others...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    How a General Election would look if 18-24's only were allowed to vote:

    Seats || Votes

    LAB: 541 || 55.0%
    SNP: 56 || 4.5%
    LDM: 25 || 14.0%
    SF: 10 || 0.9%
    PLC: 4 || 0.7%
    DUP: 4 || 0.4%
    CON: 3 || 14.5%
    IND: 2
    GRN: 1 || 2.0%
    UUP: 1 || 0.4%
    ALL: 1 || 0.4%
    SDLP: 1 || 0.3%

    What's your source for that?
    Source is @ElectionMapsUK

    Rather bizarrely, the three Tory seats appear to be Brecon, Monmouth and Montgomery. Which seems a bit weird; they must be using a different model for Welsh voters.

    Scotland is almost all SNP, other than one for Labour and two for the LibDems

    England is mostly Labour apart from a sprinkling of LibDems. They have the INDS in East Devon

    The small print says the data comes from YouGov, Survation (for Scot and NI), Deltapoll, and ICM for Wales
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Streeter said:

    The two statements are in no way incompatible and it is dishonest to try and portray them as such. It is perfectly logical to say that the case for leaving is overwhelming but also that it neds to be done with great care in a phased and graduated way. Indeed some Leavers have been saying this all along.
    Isn’t underestimating the complexity of Brexit rather a serious mistake for the government to make?

    One might even seek to hold senior members of that government responsible and expect them to do the honourable thing and resign.

    Terribly old-fashioned I know.
    Since he was not a member of the Government until July 2018 it is rather a moot point.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    Streeter said:

    The two statements are in no way incompatible and it is dishonest to try and portray them as such. It is perfectly logical to say that the case for leaving is overwhelming but also that it neds to be done with great care in a phased and graduated way. Indeed some Leavers have been saying this all along.
    Isn’t underestimating the complexity of Brexit rather a serious mistake for the government to make?

    One might even seek to hold senior members of that government responsible and expect them to do the honourable thing and resign.

    Terribly old-fashioned I know.
    Since he was not a member of the Government until July 2018 it is rather a moot point.
    Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t believe I mentioned Geoffrey Cox in my post, nor applied the principle to him in particular.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
    To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.
    Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Streeter said:

    Streeter said:

    The two statements are in no way incompatible and it is dishonest to try and portray them as such. It is perfectly logical to say that the case for leaving is overwhelming but also that it neds to be done with great care in a phased and graduated way. Indeed some Leavers have been saying this all along.
    Isn’t underestimating the complexity of Brexit rather a serious mistake for the government to make?

    One might even seek to hold senior members of that government responsible and expect them to do the honourable thing and resign.

    Terribly old-fashioned I know.
    Since he was not a member of the Government until July 2018 it is rather a moot point.
    Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t believe I mentioned Geoffrey Cox in my post, nor applied the principle to him in particular.
    In which case there was absolutely no point you answering that particular comment thread as it was entirely related to Cox.

    But as it happens when it comes to other senior members - not least of all May herself - I agree with you.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
    To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.
    Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?
    If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy. Of course you have never been a great advocate of democracy anyway so I understand that doesn't concern you very much.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid are probably much better qualified potential leaders than Cameron was.

    That's settting the bar pretty low, in all fairness. It's like saying somebody has greater personal integrity than Alistair Campbell.
    Well you'll know better than me, but if either becomes the next PM I would have thought their CV would fare favourably with most of our prime ministers on obtaining the job. Both have had very successful business careers from the looks of it.
    Comparatively few PMs have had successful careers outside politics. Of course, in the mid to late twentieth century almost all of them had military experience, and several had been senior officers. But then, some of them hadn't even had very much experience in politics (Blair and Cameron, especially the latter).

    The only politicians I can think of who had meaningful business careers before entering politics were the Bonar Law, Baldwin and Neville Chamberlain trio, which maybe isn't the happiest of parallels. I suppose Macmillan might be added to that list. Others however had other sources of income - journalism for Disraeli, the Bar for Asquith, a solicitor's practice for Lloyd George.

    Bu actually, for all we grouse about 'professional politicians who've never done anything outside politics,' that's never been terrribly unusual. Several members of the Attlee government started in local councils, for example. Arthur Balfour was groomed to be PM practically from birth by his uncle ('Bob', as noted above). Eden was foreign secretary in his thirties. Wilson was a junior don.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,305
    Sean_F said:

    bunnco said:

    So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

    I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

    Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

    Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

    Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

    I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.
    Sean, why do you think that is the case now?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    Streeter said:

    Streeter said:

    The two statements are in no way incompatible and it is dishonest to try and portray them as such. It is perfectly logical to say that the case for leaving is overwhelming but also that it neds to be done with great care in a phased and graduated way. Indeed some Leavers have been saying this all along.
    Isn’t underestimating the complexity of Brexit rather a serious mistake for the government to make?

    One might even seek to hold senior members of that government responsible and expect them to do the honourable thing and resign.

    Terribly old-fashioned I know.
    Since he was not a member of the Government until July 2018 it is rather a moot point.
    Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t believe I mentioned Geoffrey Cox in my post, nor applied the principle to him in particular.
    In which case there was absolutely no point you answering that particular comment thread as it was entirely related to Cox.

    But as it happens when it comes to other senior members - not least of all May herself - I agree with you.
    The fact it is the Attorney General who made such a damning statement on the government in general is the significant point here.

    I’m pleased you agree with me there should be ministerial resignations over a failure of this magnitude.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    How a General Election would look if 18-24's only were allowed to vote:

    Seats || Votes

    LAB: 541 || 55.0%
    SNP: 56 || 4.5%
    LDM: 25 || 14.0%
    SF: 10 || 0.9%
    PLC: 4 || 0.7%
    DUP: 4 || 0.4%
    CON: 3 || 14.5%
    IND: 2
    GRN: 1 || 2.0%
    UUP: 1 || 0.4%
    ALL: 1 || 0.4%
    SDLP: 1 || 0.3%

    What's your source for that?
    Source is @ElectionMapsUK

    Rather bizarrely, the three Tory seats appear to be Brecon, Monmouth and Montgomery. Which seems a bit weird; they must be using a different model for Welsh voters.

    Scotland is almost all SNP, other than one for Labour and two for the LibDems

    England is mostly Labour apart from a sprinkling of LibDems. They have the INDS in East Devon

    The small print says the data comes from YouGov, Survation (for Scot and NI), Deltapoll, and ICM for Wales
    Thanks.

    I'm always a bit suspicious of mixing polls like that.

    I suspect the reason Montgomery and Brecon are unaffected is because very 18-24 year olds live there.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,716

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
    To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.
    Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?
    If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
    (Snip)
    I really don't see that.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
    To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.
    Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?
    If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
    (Snip)
    I really don't see that.
    Extreme Leavers believe that democracy stopped on 23 June 2016.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
    To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.
    Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?
    If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
    (Snip)
    I really don't see that.
    Don't you? I would sort of agree, but only because I think it already has by its recent asinine behaviour.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Sean is right in the 90’s
    fitalass said:

    Sean_F said:

    bunnco said:

    So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

    I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

    Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

    Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

    Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

    I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.
    Sean, why do you think that is the case now?
    Sean is right that in the 90’s the lib dems were able to field more candidates, we even “won” sandhurst and if we could have put up full slates would have wiped them out. The lib dems standing this time will do well but not on the scale of 95
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Streeter said:

    Streeter said:

    Streeter said:

    The two statements are in no way incompatible and it is dishonest to try and portray them as such. It is perfectly logical to say that the case for leaving is overwhelming but also that it neds to be done with great care in a phased and graduated way. Indeed some Leavers have been saying this all along.
    Isn’t underestimating the complexity of Brexit rather a serious mistake for the government to make?

    One might even seek to hold senior members of that government responsible and expect them to do the honourable thing and resign.

    Terribly old-fashioned I know.
    Since he was not a member of the Government until July 2018 it is rather a moot point.
    Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t believe I mentioned Geoffrey Cox in my post, nor applied the principle to him in particular.
    In which case there was absolutely no point you answering that particular comment thread as it was entirely related to Cox.

    But as it happens when it comes to other senior members - not least of all May herself - I agree with you.
    The fact it is the Attorney General who made such a damning statement on the government in general is the significant point here.

    I’m pleased you agree with me there should be ministerial resignations over a failure of this magnitude.
    I would have been happy to see most of this lot gone a year ago. But then that applies to most of Parliament as well (including the ERG mob)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
    To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.
    Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?
    If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
    (Snip)
    I really don't see that.
    Extreme Leavers believe that democracy stopped on 23 June 2016.
    Nope. The belief is that democracy is based on a basic principle of asking a question and enacting the result. I said on numerous occasions before the referendum that as long as Remain won I would give no further support to another referendum. It is called principle and you singularly lack it as a quality.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone

    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
    To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.
    Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?
    If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
    (Snip)
    I really don't see that.
    Extreme Leavers believe that democracy stopped on 23 June 2016.
    Nope. The belief is that democracy is based on a basic principle of asking a question and enacting the result. I said on numerous occasions before the referendum that as long as Remain won I would give no further support to another referendum. It is called principle and you singularly lack it as a quality.
    Democracy allows for further consideration of the same question. Lord knows enough time has been spent on this one and Leavers have proven themselves singularly clueless about what they actually want, as opposed to what they don’t want.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    fitalass said:

    Sean_F said:

    bunnco said:

    So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

    I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

    Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

    Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

    Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

    I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.
    Sean, why do you think that is the case now?
    Between 1999-2010 the Conservatives made big gains against the Lib Dems in local elections. Ordinarily, many seats would have switched back after 2010 but they did not due to the Lib Dems being in government. Indeed, the Lib Dems fell back further, leaving them without an organisation in a lot of places.

    It's harder to understand why Labour is not fielding more candidates, given the influx of new members.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019


    “No that was more lies from the ERG . YouGov found only 26% would prefer no deal as an outcome . Indeed YouGov were so disgusted with the misreporting of their poll they put out a press release”

    To be fair respondents were asked if the EU refused to grant an extension would you prefer no deal or remain/revoke. This is a possible if unlikely choice we may have to make this week.

    No deal got 44 to 42 for remain/revoke. And outside London and Scotland no deal was clearly ahead. Tory voters backed no deal by at least 2 to 1.

    Politicians spinning polls is hardly unique to the ERG. So let's not over dramatise!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
    To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.
    Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?
    If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
    (Snip)
    I really don't see that.

    I know you don't but then to be fair you were never going to be convinced by it anyway. But just for a moment imagine what your view would be of Parliament if the vote had gone the other way and they had then decided we would leave anyway. I am pretty sure there would have been plenty of people shouting about how Parliamentary democracy had failed - and I would have been right there with them. What would be the point in taking back control from the EU only through the autocratic role of a Parliament that acted against the wishes of the people?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone

    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
    To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.
    Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?
    If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
    (Snip)
    I really don't see that.
    Extreme Leavers believe that democracy stopped on 23 June 2016.
    Nope. The belief is that democracy is based on a basic principle of asking a question and enacting the result. I said on numerous occasions before the referendum that as long as Remain won I would give no further support to another referendum. It is called principle and you singularly lack it as a quality.
    Democracy allows for further consideration of the same question. Lord knows enough time has been spent on this one and Leavers have proven themselves singularly clueless about what they actually want, as opposed to what they don’t want.
    Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    As Vernon Bogdanor said:
    Thatcher Emerges from the Grave for a 4th. Term
    Aaargh.

    Corbyn's advisers seem not to have pointed out to him that FPTP and being outside the EU also permits right-wing extremism. If his party is minded to abolish the Lords, well the Lords were the only opposition to Thatcher when her majority reached 100-140.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Just remember Farage said if he lost 52/48 then it would be unfinished business and he’d be back for another vote

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
    To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.
    Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?
    If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
    (Snip)
    I really don't see that.

    I know you don't but then to be fair you were never going to be convinced by it anyway. But just for a moment imagine what your view would be of Parliament if the vote had gone the other way and they had then decided we would leave anyway. I am pretty sure there would have been plenty of people shouting about how Parliamentary democracy had failed - and I would have been right there with them. What would be the point in taking back control from the EU only through the autocratic role of a Parliament that acted against the wishes of the people?


  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    But until the late 1980s Labour was more anti-EEC than the Tories! People such as Tony Benn, Peter Shore, Barbara Castle and John Silkin had been strong opponents of continued membership.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    nichomar said:

    Just remember Farage said if he lost 52/48 then it would be unfinished business and he’d be back for another vote


    Farage will say anything to stay in the limelight.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,716


    I know you don't but then to be fair you were never going to be convinced by it anyway. But just for a moment imagine what your view would be of Parliament if the vote had gone the other way and they had then decided we would leave anyway. I am pretty sure there would have been plenty of people shouting about how Parliamentary democracy had failed - and I would have been right there with them. What would be the point in taking back control from the EU only through the autocratic role of a Parliament that acted against the wishes of the people?

    And taking the same poor attitude you have: you are never going to be convinced to the contrary.

    Take, as an example, your wish to have a referendum on Lisbon when Cameron came to power, and after Brown had signed it (I believe that was your view). You wanted a referendum on that even if the result was unimplementable. Wither democracy in that case?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    As in the USA, the number of competitive seats for the House of Commons is declining. Both parties are getting stronger in their traditional strongholds.

    Presumably this will also be reflected in local government?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Democracy allows for further consideration of the same question. Lord knows enough time has been spent on this one and Leavers have proven themselves singularly clueless about what they actually want, as opposed to what they don’t want.

    Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.
    Different people define enacting the first vote in different ways. If May's deal went through and we went into transition, would you regard the first vote as having been enacted? Millions wouldn't, which is why you have no right to set yourself up as the arbiter of this question. It is always legitimate to oppose a policy by democratic means, no matter how many people have voted for it.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited April 2019
    Re Richard Ts post .

    You have a point . I often ask my Remainer friends to reverse the situation . However what’s now causing the big problem is this new no deal mantra which is driving Remainers into a more polarized position . The ERG are to blame . I’m a Remainer who wants an orderly exit and a deal but am disgusted by this no deal being peddled by some which some of the public are now following. We hear so much about honouring the ref but the campaign promised a deal and not a sudden rupture with the EU. Leave MPs seem happy now to avoid the part of the campaign that doesn’t suit them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.
    +1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    justin124 said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    But until the late 1980s Labour was more anti-EEC than the Tories! People such as Tony Benn, Peter Shore, Barbara Castle and John Silkin had been strong opponents of continued membership.
    I see, to remember there was another bloke who was very anti-EU in those days, what was his name now...?

    I thought it was Corbyn, but it can't be because we're assured he's a man of principle who never changes his mind on anything.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Just remember Farage said if he lost 52/48 then it would be unfinished business and he’d be back for another vote


    Farage will say anything to stay in the limelight.

    nichomar said:

    Just remember Farage said if he lost 52/48 then it would be unfinished business and he’d be back for another vote


    Farage will say anything to stay in the limelight.

    nichomar said:

    Just remember Farage said if he lost 52/48 then it would be unfinished business and he’d be back for another vote


    Farage will say anything to stay in the limelight.
    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.

    nichomar said:

    Just remember Farage said if he lost 52/48 then it would be unfinished business and he’d be back for another vote


    Farage will say anything to stay in the limelight.
    Sadly true
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    justin124 said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    But until the late 1980s Labour was more anti-EEC than the Tories! People such as Tony Benn, Peter Shore, Barbara Castle and John Silkin had been strong opponents of continued membership.
    And our Jezza!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone

    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Scottish Labour say hello.
    Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

    I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.
    The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

    You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

    An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...
    To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.
    Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?
    If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
    (Snip)
    I really don't see that.
    Extreme Leavers believe that democracy stopped on 23 June 2016.
    Nope. The belief is that democracy is based on a basic principle of asking a question and enacting the result. I said on numerous occasions before the referendum that as long as Remain won I would give no further support to another referendum. It is called principle and you singularly lack it as a quality.
    Democracy allows for further consideration of the same question. Lord knows enough time has been spent on this one and Leavers have proven themselves singularly clueless about what they actually want, as opposed to what they don’t want.
    Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.
    An operable deal was offered. Leavers turned it down. At that point, Remainers can reasonably regard their duty to implement Brexit as discharged.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.
    The most thoughtful and coherent contribution to the referendum campaign came from one Theresa May.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,305
    Sean_F said:

    fitalass said:

    Sean_F said:

    bunnco said:

    So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

    I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

    Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

    Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

    Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

    I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.
    Sean, why do you think that is the case now?
    Between 1999-2010 the Conservatives made big gains against the Lib Dems in local elections. Ordinarily, many seats would have switched back after 2010 but they did not due to the Lib Dems being in government. Indeed, the Lib Dems fell back further, leaving them without an organisation in a lot of places.

    It's harder to understand why Labour is not fielding more candidates, given the influx of new members.
    Many thanks Sean, I was particularly surprised at this being the case for Labour because of the rise in its membership.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    An operable deal was offered. Leavers turned it down. At that point, Remainers can reasonably regard their duty to implement Brexit as discharged.

    The key point is whether Brexit is deliverable without that deal, or at least, deliverable without an unacceptable level of disruption.

    However, I would have more sympathy with that argument if Remainers had abstained on or voted for the Deal, rather than blocking it.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    Another remainer born yesterday, it was Labour that was originally most opposed to the economic liberalism of the EEC. in fact;

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3408128/tony-blairs-old-election-leaflet-reveals-the-brexit-wrecker-used-to-want-to-leave-the-eu/
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    nico67 said:

    Re Richard Ts post .

    You have a point . I often ask my Remainer friends to reverse the situation . However what’s now causing the big problem is this new no deal mantra which is driving Remainers into a more polarized position . The ERG are to blame . I’m a Remainer who wants an orderly exit and a deal but am disgusted by this no deal being peddled by some which some of the public are now following. We hear so much about honouring the ref but the campaign promised a deal and not a sudden rupture with the EU. Leave MPs seem happy now to avoid the part of the campaign that doesn’t suit them.

    I think that's spot-on.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.
    The most thoughtful and coherent contribution to the referendum campaign came from one Theresa May.
    Which very few saw . I saw her speech but she never really did any big events . I think she could have helped the Remain cause especially with older people .
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    ydoethur said:

    An operable deal was offered. Leavers turned it down. At that point, Remainers can reasonably regard their duty to implement Brexit as discharged.

    The key point is whether Brexit is deliverable without that deal, or at least, deliverable without an unacceptable level of disruption.

    However, I would have more sympathy with that argument if Remainers had abstained on or voted for the Deal, rather than blocking it.
    The key point is that Leavers are clueless about what they actually want. They can’t expect everyone else to indulge them while they cast around for ideas.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    Another remainer born yesterday, it was Labour that was originally most opposed to the economic liberalism of the EEC. in fact;

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3408128/tony-blairs-old-election-leaflet-reveals-the-brexit-wrecker-used-to-want-to-leave-the-eu/
    Lmao ! I wish I was that young .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.
    Right wing people praising Labour Leave hardly refutes the original point.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    But until the late 1980s Labour was more anti-EEC than the Tories! People such as Tony Benn, Peter Shore, Barbara Castle and John Silkin had been strong opponents of continued membership.
    And our Jezza!
    Indeed so - but he was hardly a leading figure at the time.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981



    Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.

    It would be a YUGE leap forward for mankind if you were to justify that claim rather than just repeating it. Because democracy means letting the people decide things, and your position is that the people must be prevented at all costs from deciding the most pressing question du jour, which looks paradoxicaI to me.

    I have pointed you to the fact that ancient Athens, a rather effective direct democracy, was happy to vote on the same substantive issue on two consecutive days.

    So what, actually, is your *reasoned* case?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Re Richard Ts post .

    You have a point . I often ask my Remainer friends to reverse the situation . However what’s now causing the big problem is this new no deal mantra which is driving Remainers into a more polarized position . The ERG are to blame . I’m a Remainer who wants an orderly exit and a deal but am disgusted by this no deal being peddled by some which some of the public are now following. We hear so much about honouring the ref but the campaign promised a deal and not a sudden rupture with the EU. Leave MPs seem happy now to avoid the part of the campaign that doesn’t suit them.

    I think that's spot-on.
    Thanks . I’ve said on many occasions the only way to have a chance of healing the divisions is with an orderly exit and deal. The ERG no dealers clearly don’t care what happens as long as they get their version of Brexit .

    They are pouring fuel onto a fire. I find their actions reprehensible .
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Because the establishment is utterly incapable of taking no for an answer?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    RoyalBlue said:

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other wing with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    To call the euroloons a 'wing' is extremely flattering. A lean-too conservatory would be more like it. So far as I can see they are purely a parliamentary party phenomenon and of those half of them have joined the TIG.
    You know not what you talk about.

    The split isn't just about the EU.

    There's a strong correlation between the ERG and socially conservative views which the One Nation wing finds anathema to them.

    It is said more than one member of the ERG has privately talked about ending same sex marriage and condemning those hetrosexual couples that have children out of wedlock.
    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.
    The separation statistic isn't true, because you are not comparing like with like because the average married couple have been together longer than the average non married couple. I can't find the details now, but I believe a survey was carried out comparing the two but eliminating couples who had been together for less than 7 (I think) years. The non married couples were no more likely to have separated and I believe in fact less so.
  • RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    The morons in Birmingham are Labour fans, are they not?
    The morons in Birmingham are usually Birmingham fans.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Ishmael_Z said:



    Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.

    It would be a YUGE leap forward for mankind if you were to justify that claim rather than just repeating it. Because democracy means letting the people decide things, and your position is that the people must be prevented at all costs from deciding the most pressing question du jour, which looks paradoxicaI to me.

    I have pointed you to the fact that ancient Athens, a rather effective direct democracy, was happy to vote on the same substantive issue on two consecutive days.

    So what, actually, is your *reasoned* case?
    No my position is clear and always has been. If you ask a question of the electorate and then do not act according to their direction then it is not democracy. Any Government can hold votes and then ignore the results. That is not democracy no matter how you might try to spin it. It is no wonder with your attitude that you are in favour of the EU. They have a similar view of democracy; if the electorate gives you the wrong answer just keep asking until they get it right.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    Another remainer born yesterday, it was Labour that was originally most opposed to the economic liberalism of the EEC. in fact;

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3408128/tony-blairs-old-election-leaflet-reveals-the-brexit-wrecker-used-to-want-to-leave-the-eu/
    Lmao ! I wish I was that young .
    Well then how on earth do you reckon leaving the EU is a right-wing coup to deliver capitalism on steroids when the most free market Tories on this board are precisly the most sceptical of leaving?

    You can’t keep up the cognitive dissonance forever, surely?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kyf_100 said:

    Because the establishment is utterly incapable of taking no for an answer?
    So let us take control away from the establishment and appeal directly to the people, and ask them what they want to do. Democratic, or what?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    An operable deal was offered. Leavers turned it down. At that point, Remainers can reasonably regard their duty to implement Brexit as discharged.

    The key point is whether Brexit is deliverable without that deal, or at least, deliverable without an unacceptable level of disruption.

    However, I would have more sympathy with that argument if Remainers had abstained on or voted for the Deal, rather than blocking it.
    The key point is that Leavers are clueless about what they actually want. They can’t expect everyone else to indulge them while they cast around for ideas.
    Leavers want to leave. I think in time they would have accepted this, and we could have moved on. Of course the ERG and DUP would continue to behave like mad fundies, but they are, so that's no change.

    But Remainers trying to stop us leaving - that's more difficult to explain. It isn't a good look. That's not to say we should leave at any price, but if we keep trying to avoid practicable ways of leaving how on Earth are we going to sort this mess out?
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Sean F said
    Between 1999-2010 the Conservatives made big gains against the Lib Dems in local elections. Ordinarily, many seats would have switched back after 2010 but they did not due to the Lib Dems being in government. Indeed, the Lib Dems fell back further, leaving them without an organisation in a lot of places.

    That's right. In my Council in 2007 I ran the campaign that took 10pc of the entire national LibDem losses overnight, We went from minus8 to plus32 overnight. Twelve years on the Conservatives still dominate in this part of the world. And nationally the LibDems have similarly fallen-away. You can see it writ large at the Local Government Association, where the proportion of LibDems on National Committees is pitiful.

    But what's the consequence? LibDems used to tithe Council allowances by 10pc to fund-raise for election leaflets. With fewer councillors, there is less money. With less money, there's less campaigning. It's a vicious circle.

    It's now over 30 years since the LibDems' heady days of the SDP/Lib merger and the activists are all growing really old and just haven;t been replaced.

    In our own area the candidates for May 2nd are mainly 1980's retreads pulled out of retirement in their eighties for one last Hurrah. Only 1 candidate in Harleston - a 2 member ward. 1 candidate in Hethersett - a 3 member ward. Out-of-towners drafted from 20 miles away to fight single member wards elsewhere.

    It's all gone wrong for them and you sense an inflection point except in a few isolated spots. And a peculiarity of timing in the May2nd Elections with the clusterfxk that is Brexit just didn;t give time for independents or others to get nominated in time for the 3rd April deadline and get on ballot paper.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited April 2019

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    The morons in Birmingham are Labour fans, are they not?
    The morons in Birmingham are usually Birmingham fans.
    Some of the richer ones may have A Villa.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.
    Right wing people praising Labour Leave hardly refutes the original point.
    Labour Leave are right-wing?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.
    Right wing people praising Labour Leave hardly refutes the original point.
    Labour Leave are right-wing?
    Kate Hoey?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    An operable deal was offered. Leavers turned it down. At that point, Remainers can reasonably regard their duty to implement Brexit as discharged.

    The key point is whether Brexit is deliverable without that deal, or at least, deliverable without an unacceptable level of disruption.

    However, I would have more sympathy with that argument if Remainers had abstained on or voted for the Deal, rather than blocking it.
    The key point is that Leavers are clueless about what they actually want. They can’t expect everyone else to indulge them while they cast around for ideas.
    Leavers want to leave. I think in time they would have accepted this, and we could have moved on. Of course the ERG and DUP would continue to behave like mad fundies, but they are, so that's no change.

    But Remainers trying to stop us leaving - that's more difficult to explain. It isn't a good look. That's not to say we should leave at any price, but if we keep trying to avoid practicable ways of leaving how on Earth are we going to sort this mess out?
    There were three different attempts to get the deal through. Leavers hate it. They have no idea what they actively do want.

    Brexit has been given its chance. The public is entitled if it so wishes to take it round the back of the garage and humanely put it down.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:



    Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.

    It would be a YUGE leap forward for mankind if you were to justify that claim rather than just repeating it. Because democracy means letting the people decide things, and your position is that the people must be prevented at all costs from deciding the most pressing question du jour, which looks paradoxicaI to me.

    I have pointed you to the fact that ancient Athens, a rather effective direct democracy, was happy to vote on the same substantive issue on two consecutive days.

    So what, actually, is your *reasoned* case?
    No my position is clear and always has been. If you ask a question of the electorate and then do not act according to their direction then it is not democracy. Any Government can hold votes and then ignore the results. That is not democracy no matter how you might try to spin it. It is no wonder with your attitude that you are in favour of the EU. They have a similar view of democracy; if the electorate gives you the wrong answer just keep asking until they get it right.
    A cracking good argument in its day, and one I would have agreed with in the circumstances of an attempt to hold another referendum in 2016-18. But unless you take the insane view that a referendum result must be enacted even if it was made 100 years ago or if subsequent developments mean that its enactment would reduce the country to penury, you have to concede that the passage of time, or changes in circumstances, can in some circumstances justify a second vote. So we are just discussing whether we are at that stage yet. I think we are.

    I don't actually think the 2016 result is capable of implementation anyway. It was represented to us that we could leave in a way which would yield a net gain to the country of £350m a week. Do you think that is achievable?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Sean_F said:

    fitalass said:

    Sean_F said:

    bunnco said:

    So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

    I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

    Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

    Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

    Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

    I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.
    Sean, why do you think that is the case now?
    Between 1999-2010 the Conservatives made big gains against the Lib Dems in local elections. Ordinarily, many seats would have switched back after 2010 but they did not due to the Lib Dems being in government. Indeed, the Lib Dems fell back further, leaving them without an organisation in a lot of places.

    It's harder to understand why Labour is not fielding more candidates, given the influx of new members.
    Remember that just getting any old member to stand for local elections brings its own problems. UKIP gained lots of councillors, who either said or did things that embarrased the leadership or just gave up after a year, because they couldn't be arsed.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    nichomar said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.
    Right wing people praising Labour Leave hardly refutes the original point.
    Labour Leave are right-wing?
    Kate Hoey?
    Still a Labour MP last time I checked!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    ydoethur said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    The morons in Birmingham are Labour fans, are they not?
    The morons in Birmingham are usually Birmingham fans.
    Some of the richer ones may have A Villa.
    Hawthorns in my side
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Go

    nichomar said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

    Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

    The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

    I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.
    Right wing people praising Labour Leave hardly refutes the original point.
    Labour Leave are right-wing?
    Kate Hoey?
    Still a Labour MP last time I checked!
    God knows how
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    reasonable day on National for me, 2 out of 3 horses placed so came out on top and favourite was too short for me to back. missed race as on ferry , but just had a wonderful steak dinner and now partaking of free refreshments. Good day all round.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    No my position is clear and always has been. If you ask a question of the electorate and then do not act according to their direction then it is not democracy.

    So not bringing in an Australian-style points system for EU citizens would be undemocratic?

    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/745685905999007744
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    An operable deal was offered. Leavers turned it down. At that point, Remainers can reasonably regard their duty to implement Brexit as discharged.

    The key point is whether Brexit is deliverable without that deal, or at least, deliverable without an unacceptable level of disruption.

    However, I would have more sympathy with that argument if Remainers had abstained on or voted for the Deal, rather than blocking it.
    The key point is that Leavers are clueless about what they actually want. They can’t expect everyone else to indulge them while they cast around for ideas.
    Leavers want to leave. I think in time they would have accepted this, and we could have moved on. Of course the ERG and DUP would continue to behave like mad fundies, but they are, so that's no change.

    But Remainers trying to stop us leaving - that's more difficult to explain. It isn't a good look. That's not to say we should leave at any price, but if we keep trying to avoid practicable ways of leaving how on Earth are we going to sort this mess out?
    There were three different attempts to get the deal through. Leavers hate it. They have no idea what they actively do want.

    Brexit has been given its chance. The public is entitled if it so wishes to take it round the back of the garage and humanely put it down.
    I don't understand where this accusation that remainers are stopping us leaving comes from. It is possible to want another form of Brexit, avoiding either this deal or no deal. I think this is broadly the position of the labour party.
This discussion has been closed.