Anyway, is the timing of this new statement not slightly random? Why late on a Saturday night? Reacting to something in the Sunday papers or trying to change the agenda?
Bit if a different to what @bunnco was reporting earlier?
If you mean the UKIP wing then so be it.
“There are no tanks in Baghdad” I think you vastly underestimate the damage this is doing to the Tory base
It may but the party is broader than a hard right grouping
At least 70% of the Tory members would prefer no deal , if they are classed as hard right then your party has an existential problem
We can survive the loss of fair weather supporters like Big G.
I think the only event that could break the party completely would be Revoke sans second referendum. A second referendum that led to Remain would be ugly but manageable.
Such arrogance is beyond belief. I was asked to be a conservative county councillor at the age of 22 but my new business prevented me taking on the role. I actively assisted the party in all the elections in the late 1960s 1970s 1980s and was the personal driver for Lord Wyn Roberts in his campaigns and David Jones in the 2010 GE.
I would suggest I have a record of support for my party that entitles me to some respect
Loyalty implies sticking with someone or something through thick and thin. You have manifestly not done this. You claim entitlement to respect, but label the more Eurosceptic wing of the party ‘UKIP’ or the ‘hard right’. If you want to dish it out, you can take it as well.
Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.
It would be a YUGE leap forward for mankind if you were to justify that claim rather than just repeating it. Because democracy means letting the people decide things, and your position is that the people must be prevented at all costs from deciding the most pressing question du jour, which looks paradoxicaI to me.
I have pointed you to the fact that ancient Athens, a rather effective direct democracy, was happy to vote on the same substantive issue on two consecutive days.
So what, actually, is your *reasoned* case?
The reasoned case is that the sovereign people gave an instruction. (“Leave the EU”)
The Executive have negotiated a deal. People may not like the deal but the Executive has done its job
The Legislature has taken it upon itself to prevent the executive doing its job and to frustrate the decision of the sovereign authority.
In this country, sovereignty rests with the Crown in parliament. You can fantasize as much as you like about sovereign people; i don't much care for alternate histories.
The source of their authority has changed. It’s no longer the divine right of kings, but the people have taken up the mantle of sovereignty. They typically exercise that authority by choosing representatives but on this occasion the question was referred back to them
Bit if a different to what @bunnco was reporting earlier?
If you mean the UKIP wing then so be it.
“There are no tanks in Baghdad” I think you vastly underestimate the damage this is doing to the Tory base
It may but the party is broader than a hard right grouping
At least 70% of the Tory members would prefer no deal , if they are classed as hard right then your party has an existential problem
We can survive the loss of fair weather supporters like Big G.
I think the only event that could break the party completely would be Revoke sans second referendum. A second referendum that led to Remain would be ugly but manageable.
Such arrogance is beyond belief. I was asked to be a conservative county councillor at the age of 22 but my new business prevented me taking on the role. I actively assisted the party in all the elections in the late 1960s 1970s 1980s and was the personal driver for Lord Wyn Roberts in his campaigns and David Jones in the 2010 GE.
I would suggest I have a record of support for my party that entitles me to some respect
Loyalty implies sticking with someone or something through thick and thin. You have manifestly not done this. You claim entitlement to respect, but label the more Eurosceptic wing of the party ‘UKIP’ or the ‘hard right’. If you want to dish it out, you can take it as well.
Bit if a different to what @bunnco was reporting earlier?
If you mean the UKIP wing then so be it.
“There are no tanks in Baghdad” I think you vastly underestimate the damage this is doing to the Tory base
It may but the party is broader than a hard right grouping
At least 70% of the Tory members would prefer no deal , if they are classed as hard right then your party has an existential problem
We can survive the loss of fair weather supporters like Big G.
I think the only event that could break the party completely would be Revoke sans second referendum. A second referendum that led to Remain would be ugly but manageable.
Such arrogance is beyond belief. I was asked to be a conservative county councillor at the age of 22 but my new business prevented me taking on the role. I actively assisted the party in all the elections in the late 1960s 1970s 1980s and was the personal driver for Lord Wyn Roberts in his campaigns and David Jones in the 2010 GE.
I would suggest I have a record of support for my party that entitles me to some respect
Loyalty implies sticking with someone or something through thick and thin. You have manifestly not done this. You claim entitlement to respect, but label the more Eurosceptic wing of the party ‘UKIP’ or the ‘hard right’. If you want to dish it out, you can take it as well.
UKIP and the ultra ERG are not my party
The ERG are, at the moment.
Some ERG are reasonable, but the Bakers and Francois are not sadly
Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.
It would be a YUGE leap forward for mankind if you were to justify that claim rather than just repeating it. Because democracy means letting the people decide things, and your position is that the people must be prevented at all costs from deciding the most pressing question du jour, which looks paradoxicaI to me.
I have pointed you to the fact that ancient Athens, a rather effective direct democracy, was happy to vote on the same substantive issue on two consecutive days.
So what, actually, is your *reasoned* case?
The reasoned case is that the sovereign people gave an instruction. (“Leave the EU”)
The Executive have negotiated a deal. People may not like the deal but the Executive has done its job
The Legislature has taken it upon itself to prevent the executive doing its job and to frustrate the decision of the sovereign authority.
In this country, sovereignty rests with the Crown in parliament. You can fantasize as much as you like about sovereign people; i don't much care for alternate histories.
The source of their authority has changed. It’s no longer the divine right of kings, but the people have taken up the mantle of sovereignty. They typically exercise that authority by choosing representatives but on this occasion the question was referred back to them
I'm no expert, but that looks like a load of nonsense to me. Politically it was stated to be that way, which is not irrelevant, but it seems to invent or imply the existance of a constitutional position which does not exist re 'referral to the people' in order to make the political realities of the situation stronger than being, well, merely political realities, given they are definitely not legal ones as that has been established in court.
"James claimed locals did not want to work in the fields, saying he only had ten applications this year. Of those, eight were offered jobs but only two turned up and they did not last their first week."
Presumably SeanT was busy.
Full Employment is s bugger. Where’s a labour government when you need one?
Doesn't bode well for the daffodil trade though, does it?
Bit if a different to what @bunnco was reporting earlier?
If you mean the UKIP wing then so be it.
“There are no tanks in Baghdad” I think you vastly underestimate the damage this is doing to the Tory base
It may but the party is broader than a hard right grouping
At least 70% of the Tory members would prefer no deal , if they are classed as hard right then your party has an existential problem
We can survive the loss of fair weather supporters like Big G.
I think the only event that could break the party completely would be Revoke sans second referendum. A second referendum that led to Remain would be ugly but manageable.
Such arrogance is beyond belief. I was asked to be a conservative county councillor at the age of 22 but my new business prevented me taking on the role. I actively assisted the party in all the elections in the late 1960s 1970s 1980s and was the personal driver for Lord Wyn Roberts in his campaigns and David Jones in the 2010 GE.
I would suggest I have a record of support for my party that entitles me to some respect
Loyalty implies sticking with someone or something through thick and thin. You have manifestly not done this. You claim entitlement to respect, but label the more Eurosceptic wing of the party ‘UKIP’ or the ‘hard right’. If you want to dish it out, you can take it as well.
UKIP and the ultra ERG are not my party
The ERG are, at the moment.
Some ERG are reasonable, but the Bakers and Francois are not sadly
In May 2009 Conservatives had 13-22% lead in the polls which pointed to a clear Majority in 2010.
Con win by 7% and Hung parliament
There were 44 polls in May 2014. 93% had Labour ahead.
Conservative majority in May 2015 with a 6 winning point margin
In 2015 there were 69 opinion polls on Brexit. 86% of them had Remain winning, with an average margin of 8%...
Leave win by 4%
From Jan 2017 until she announced the GE in April that year, Theresa May’s Tories had an average poll lead of 15% which pointed toward a landslide.
Result was a 2.5% win, majority lost & supply & confidence with the DUP
Long term hypothetical Opinion polls have an incredible record at being at odds with the eventual result, yet are now being used as evidence that public opinion on Brexit has turned so much that the whole thing should be run again.
That's a very good point.
But it isn't just opinion polls is it. There are regular demonstrations up and down the country, a million strong one just a few weeks ago. There was a multi-million petition. And everybody is talking about it.
#fakenews it was emphatically not a million.
Well my estimate was 950,000 - but that is pretty close.
I thought in reality the official figure was it was somewhere around 400,000. Which is about the same as the Countryside marches and well behind the Anti-war march
Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.
It would be a YUGE leap forward for mankind if you were to justify that claim rather than just repeating it. Because democracy means letting the people decide things, and your position is that the people must be prevented at all costs from deciding the most pressing question du jour, which looks paradoxicaI to me.
I have pointed you to the fact that ancient Athens, a rather effective direct democracy, was happy to vote on the same substantive issue on two consecutive days.
So what, actually, is your *reasoned* case?
The reasoned case is that the sovereign people gave an instruction. (“Leave the EU”)
The Executive have negotiated a deal. People may not like the deal but the Executive has done its job
The Legislature has taken it upon itself to prevent the executive doing its job and to frustrate the decision of the sovereign authority.
In this country, sovereignty rests with the Crown in parliament. You can fantasize as much as you like about sovereign people; i don't much care for alternate histories.
The source of their authority has changed. It’s no longer the divine right of kings, but the people have taken up the mantle of sovereignty. They typically exercise that authority by choosing representatives but on this occasion the question was referred back to them
The people choose not to give her a majority. Did they not know what they were doing?
Bit if a different to what @bunnco was reporting earlier?
If you mean the UKIP wing then so be it.
“There are no tanks in Baghdad” I think you vastly underestimate the damage this is doing to the Tory base
It may but the party is broader than a hard right grouping
At least 70% of the Tory members would prefer no deal , if they are classed as hard right then your party has an existential problem
We can survive the loss of fair weather supporters like Big G.
I think the only event that could break the party completely would be Revoke sans second referendum. A second referendum that led to Remain would be ugly but manageable.
Such arrog
I would suggest I have a record of support for my party that entitles me to some respect
Loyalty implies sticking with someone or something through thick and thin. You have manifestly not done this. You claim entitlement to respect, but label the more Eurosceptic wing of the party ‘UKIP’ or the ‘hard right’. If you want to dish it out, you can take it as well.
UKIP and the ultra ERG are not my party
The ERG are, at the moment.
Some ERG are reasonable, but the Bakers and Francois are not sadly
You seem to be happy with the idea of losing via an exodus of resignations many activists and supporters who you accept as the largest single grouping of support within the membership. Therefore you accept there are limits to how broad you wish the parties' base of support to be. Meaning no disrespect, I don't really see how it is therefore unfair for others to take the view that the loss of your wing of the party would be how they wish to limit the broadness of the parties' support.
There is quite evidently a battle within the party to determine what they are about and how broad a coalition it is and should be. Longstanding members who passionately believe in the party as they see it will no doubt find themselves, unfairly in their eyes, seen as no longer truly being a part of the party and forced out. Is this not part of the defector defence sometimes seen of 'I have not left party X, party X left me'?
Democracy allows for further consideration of the same question. Lord knows enough time has been spent on this one and Leavers have proven themselves singularly clueless about what they actually want, as opposed to what they don’t want.
Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.
Different people define enacting the first vote in different ways. If May's deal went through and we went into transition, would you regard the first vote as having been enacted? Millions wouldn't, which is why you have no right to set yourself up as the arbiter of this question. It is always legitimate to oppose a policy by democratic means, no matter how many people have voted for it.
LOL. More desperate spinning. I doubt you will find many voters of either camp who think revoking means we have enacted the referendum result even if they are glad that is the outcome. You may fool yourself with that sort of thinking but you wont fool many other people.
Presenting a Brexit deal to the public against the option of Remain delivers on the result. If people don't like the reality, that's their choice.
Nope. Presenting the Deal against No Deal would deliver on the result (and also fulfils the apparent desire from Remainers for a confirmatory referendum on the type of Brexit we have since they feel it was not articulated clearly enough).
Asking them about Remain again does not deliver on the result.
Denying the public the opportunity to vote on an option that is apparently far more popular than either of the options you would offer them would be a travesty of democracy.
They already voted on that option.
Democracy did not stop on 23 June 2016. Even cretins like you should understand that.
“There are no tanks in Baghdad” I think you vastly underestimate the damage this is doing to the Tory base
It may but the party is broader than a hard right grouping
At least 70% of the Tory members would prefer no deal , if they are classed as hard right then your party has an existential problem
We can survive the loss of fair weather supporters like Big G.
I think the only event that could break the party completely would be Revoke sans second referendum. A second referendum that led to Remain would be ugly but manageable.
Such arrog
I would suggest I have a record of support for my party that entitles me to some respect
Loyalty implies sticking with someone or something through thick and thin. You have manifestly not done this. You claim entitlement to respect, but label the more Eurosceptic wing of the party ‘UKIP’ or the ‘hard right’. If you want to dish it out, you can take it as well.
UKIP and the ultra ERG are not my party
The ERG are, at the moment.
Some ERG are reasonable, but the Bakers and Francois are not sadly
You seem to be happy with the idea of losing via an exodus of resignations many activists and supporters who you accept as the largest single grouping of support within the membership. Therefore you accept there are limits to how broad you wish the parties' base of support to be. Meaning no disrespect, I don't really see how it is therefore unfair for others to take the view that the loss of your wing of the party would be how they wish to limit the broadness of the parties' support.
There is quite evidently a battle within the party to determine what they are about and how broad a coalition it is and should be. Longstanding members who passionately believe in the party as they see it will no doubt find themselves, unfairly in their eyes, seen as no longer truly being a part of the party and forced out. Is this not part of the defector defence sometimes seen of 'I have not left party X, party X left me'?
Quicker to say that the Tories’ days as a broad church look to be almost over.
Whether we Brexit or remain, anyone who thinks that will settle the divide in the party, or the country, is deluded.
Bit if a different to what @bunnco was reporting earlier?
If you mean the UKIP wing then so be it.
“There are no tanks in Baghdad” I think you vastly underestimate the damage this is doing to the Tory base
It may but the party is broader than a hard right grouping
At least 70% of the Tory members would prefer no deal , if they are classed as hard right then your party has an existential problem
We can survive the loss of fair weather supporters like Big G.
I think the only event that could break the party completely would be Revoke sans second referendum. A second referendum that led to Remain would be ugly but manageable.
Such arrogance is beyond belief. I was asked to be a conservative county councillor at the age of 22 but my new business prevented me taking on the role. I actively assisted the party in all the elections in the late 1960s 1970s 1980s and was the personal driver for Lord Wyn Roberts in his campaigns and David Jones in the 2010 GE.
I would suggest I have a record of support for my party that entitles me to some respect
Loyalty implies sticking with someone or something through thick and thin. You have manifestly not done this. You claim entitlement to respect, but label the more Eurosceptic wing of the party ‘UKIP’ or the ‘hard right’. If you want to dish it out, you can take it as well.
UKIP and the ultra ERG are not my party
The ERG are, at the moment.
Some ERG are reasonable, but the Bakers and Francois are not sadly
“There are no tanks in Baghdad” I think you vastly underestimate the damage this is doing to the Tory base
It may but the party is broader than a hard right grouping
At least 70% of the Tory members would prefer no deal , if they are classed as hard right then your party has an existential problem
We can survive the loss of fair weather supporters like Big G.
I think the only event that could break the party completely would be Revoke sans second referendum. A second referendum that led to Remain would be ugly but manageable.
Such arrog
I would suggest I have a record of support for my party that entitles me to some respect
Loyalty implies sticking with someone or something through thick and thin. You have manifestly not done this. You claim entitlement to respect, but label the more Eurosceptic wing of the party ‘UKIP’ or the ‘hard right’. If you want to dish it out, you can take it as well.
UKIP and the ultra ERG are not my party
The ERG are, at the moment.
Some ERG are reasonable, but the Bakers and Francois are not sadly
You seem to be happy with the idea of losing via an exodus of resignations many activists and supporters who you accept as the largest single grouping of support within the membership. Therefore you accept there are limits to how broad you wish the parties' base of support to be. Meaning no disrespect, I don't really see how it is therefore unfair for others to take the view that the loss of your wing of the party would be how they wish to limit the broadness of the parties' support.
There is quite evidently a battle within the party to determine what they are about and how broad a coalition it is and should be. Longstanding members who passionately believe in the party as they see it will no doubt find themselves, unfairly in their eyes, seen as no longer truly being a part of the party and forced out. Is this not part of the defector defence sometimes seen of 'I have not left party X, party X left me'?
Quicker to say that the Tories’ days as a broad church look to be almost over.
I have never concerned myself with being quick to say things, even if I really should
Pleasant dreams of a day when Brexit does not define us. In 2065
Who the hell do some of these Tories think they are .
A cross party deal has the best chance of uniting the country , it’s not just what the Tory party wants . As a Remainer I’m willing to move on if a cross party deal is done .
I’m sure the public will quickly get behind a compromise. The hate mongers wanting to stir up betrayal narratives if there’s Tory Labour deal need to shut up and stop sowing division .
There clearly isn’t a deal yet. Why are people assuming there is one?
The general hope that why would an offer be announced if it hasn't privately already been worked out. But that's never been the case before, and even the statement says 'basis'. I think the argument this is designed to strengthen the case for an extension, give pretext for no one vetoing an extension, has some merit perhaps.
There clearly isn’t a deal yet. Why are people assuming there is one?
The general hope that why would an offer be announced if it hasn't privately already been worked out. But that's never been the case before, and even the statement says 'basis'. I think the argument this is designed to strengthen the case for an extension, give pretext for no one vetoing an extension, has some merit perhaps.
It’s an assertion looking to suggest a deal. There’s no suggestion labour agree with this assertion.
There clearly isn’t a deal yet. Why are people assuming there is one?
The general hope that why would an offer be announced if it hasn't privately already been worked out. But that's never been the case before, and even the statement says 'basis'. I think the argument this is designed to strengthen the case for an extension, give pretext for no one vetoing an extension, has some merit perhaps.
It’s an assertion looking to suggest a deal. There’s no suggestion labour agree with this assertion.
Agreed. It's at best an offer to restart things.
For me the fundamental point in all this has not changed - is it in enough MPs' interests to agree a deal of any sort? Or rather, do enough of them see it as in their interests?
Who the hell do some of these Tories think they are .
A cross party deal has the best chance of uniting the country , it’s not just what the Tory party wants . As a Remainer I’m willing to move on if a cross party deal is done .
I’m sure the public will quickly get behind a compromise. The hate mongers wanting to stir up betrayal narratives if there’s Tory Labour deal need to shut up and stop sowing division .
Democracy allows for further consideration of the same question. Lord knows enough time has been spent on this one and Leavers have proven themselves singularly clueless about what they actually want, as opposed to what they don’t want.
Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.
Different people define enacting the first vote in different ways. If May's deal went through and we went into transition, would you regard the first vote as having been enacted? Millions wouldn't, which is why you have no right to set yourself up as the arbiter of this question. It is always legitimate to oppose a policy by democratic means, no matter how many people have voted for it.
LOL. More desperate spinning. I doubt you will find many voters of either camp who think revoking means we have enacted the referendum result even if they are glad that is the outcome. You may fool yourself with that sort of thinking but you wont fool many other people.
Presenting a Brexit deal to the public against the option of Remain delivers on the result. If people don't like the reality, that's their choice.
Nope. Presenting the Deal against No Deal would deliver on the result (and also fulfils the apparent desire from Remainers for a confirmatory referendum on the type of Brexit we have since they feel it was not articulated clearly enough).
Asking them about Remain again does not deliver on the result.
Denying the public the opportunity to vote on an option that is apparently far more popular than either of the options you would offer them would be a travesty of democracy.
They already voted on that option.
Democracy did not stop on 23 June 2016. Even cretins like you should understand that.
It did if you refuse to accept the result of the referendum. But then you have never cared for or understood democracy anyway. You are too busy sowing division and hate.
JRM is trying to get the EU to kick us out next week by refusing an extension - it's a pretty smart tactic from his point of view, if rather desperate.
Who the hell do some of these Tories think they are .
A cross party deal has the best chance of uniting the country , it’s not just what the Tory party wants . As a Remainer I’m willing to move on if a cross party deal is done .
I’m sure the public will quickly get behind a compromise. The hate mongers wanting to stir up betrayal narratives if there’s Tory Labour deal need to shut up and stop sowing division .
I really hope you are right.
We can just keep our fingers crossed and pray ! I really hope Labour MPs pushing for a second vote will look at any deal properly and not just trash it . I admit of course I’d love to see the UK stay in the EU but I can’t see it happening and would rather just find a sensible way forward that keeps good relations with the EU and allows us to leave in an orderly way with a deal . And you won’t find many people more pro EU than me so if it’s good enough for me I’d hope other Remainers might feel the same .
There clearly isn’t a deal yet. Why are people assuming there is one?
I’m not sure. I think it’s still quite far away given the vast majority of Tories wont support a CU.
I guess the ideal scenario for Labour is that Corbyn and TMay agree to something but Tory MPs kill it.
It is MPs as a whole that are needed for any Brexit Deal to pass and given the hung parliament Tory MPs alone are not enough. Deal plus Customs Union was closest to a majority in the indicative votes, just 3 votes short
May is really trying to burn the Tory house down before she goes.
I used to think no one could be a more poorly suited person to be PM than Gordon Brown with all the incompetence that follows, but May now takes the crown.
The worst UK leader almost certainly ever. And the depths she can sink to haven't been reached yet.
As a lifelong Tory voter, until she goes along with nearly all her cabinet, I like most, have no party to vote for.
There clearly isn’t a deal yet. Why are people assuming there is one?
I’m not sure. I think it’s still quite far away given the vast majority of Tories wont support a CU.
I guess the ideal scenario for Labour is that Corbyn and TMay agree to something but Tory MPs kill it.
It is MPs as a whole that are needed for any Brexit Deal to pass and given the hung parliament Tory MPs alone are not enough. Deal plus Customs Union was closest to a majority in the indicative votes, just 3 votes short
Sure, sure. But the actual politics of it is that Corbyn wants the deal to fail, and the Tories to take the blame.
There clearly isn’t a deal yet. Why are people assuming there is one?
I’m not sure. I think it’s still quite far away given the vast majority of Tories wont support a CU.
I guess the ideal scenario for Labour is that Corbyn and TMay agree to something but Tory MPs kill it.
It is MPs as a whole that are needed for any Brexit Deal to pass and given the hung parliament Tory MPs alone are not enough. Deal plus Customs Union was closest to a majority in the indicative votes, just 3 votes short
Sure, sure. But the actual politics of it is that Corbyn wants the deal to fail, and the Tories to take the blame.
Well the polling evidence shows he is still failing even on that, Labour still behind the Tories in both the latest polls even though the Tories are also down. Also if Corbyn has failed to clearly back EUref2 and we end up with No Deal Corbyn will take his share of the blame from Remainers who will move to TIG or the LDs as the polling shows they are already starting to do. If we revoke then Corbyn will take much of the blame from Leavers too as it will be mainly Labour not Tory MPs willing to vote to revoke.
At the end of the day Corbyn is not as relevant as the media suggest, it is May who will set the agenda of the Deal to put forward based on what is most likely to get Commons support and based on the indicative votes that remains Deal plus Customs Union and that is what she is likely to propose next week and to the EU as an update to the PD.
There clearly isn’t a deal yet. Why are people assuming there is one?
I’m not sure. I think it’s still quite far away given the vast majority of Tories wont support a CU.
I guess the ideal scenario for Labour is that Corbyn and TMay agree to something but Tory MPs kill it.
It is MPs as a whole that are needed for any Brexit Deal to pass and given the hung parliament Tory MPs alone are not enough. Deal plus Customs Union was closest to a majority in the indicative votes, just 3 votes short
Sure, sure. But the actual politics of it is that Corbyn wants the deal to fail, and the Tories to take the blame.
Well the polling evidence shows he is still failing even on that, Labour still behind the Tories in both the latest polls even though the Tories are also down. Also if Corbyn has failed to clearly back EUref2 and we end up with No Deal Corbyn will take his share of the blame from Remainers who will move to TIG or the LDs as the polling shows they are already starting to do. If we revoke then Corbyn will take much of the blame from Leavers too as it will be mainly Labour not Tory MPs willing to vote to revoke.
At the end of the day Corbyn is not as relevant as the media suggest, it is May who will set the agenda of the Deal to put forward based on what is most likely to get Commons support and based on the indicative votes that remains Deal plus Customs Union and that is what she is likely to propose next week and to the EU as an update to the PD.
May's Deal has been voted down 3 times and still the Tories have a narrow lead
There clearly isn’t a deal yet. Why are people assuming there is one?
I’m not sure. I think it’s still quite far away given the vast majority of Tories wont support a CU.
I guess the ideal scenario for Labour is that Corbyn and TMay agree to something but Tory MPs kill it.
It is MPs as a whole that are needed for any Brexit Deal to pass and given the hung parliament Tory MPs alone are not enough. Deal plus Customs Union was closest to a majority in the indicative votes, just 3 votes short
Sure, sure. But the actual politics of it is that Corbyn wants the deal to fail, and the Tories to take the blame.
Well the polling evidence shows he is still failing even on that, Labour still behind the Tories in both the latest polls even though the Tories are also down. Also if Corbyn has failed to clearly back EUref2 and we end up with No Deal Corbyn will take his share of the blame from Remainers who will move to TIG or the LDs as the polling shows they are already starting to do. If we revoke then Corbyn will take much of the blame from Leavers too as it will be mainly Labour not Tory MPs willing to vote to revoke.
At the end of the day Corbyn is not as relevant as the media suggest, it is May who will set the agenda of the Deal to put forward based on what is most likely to get Commons support and based on the indicative votes that remains Deal plus Customs Union and that is what she is likely to propose next week and to the EU as an update to the PD.
May's Deal has been voted down 3 times and still the Tories have a narrow lead
Because a lot of Tory voters want leave, believe that May will be cast out, and the one true Brexit shall be revealed. Or something like that
But in the end if we do not leave then the democratic process has failed completely and I do not look forward to the consequences of that which so many Remainers seem to be blind to. .
I welcome the consequences. The country needs radical change from top to bottom that can't be delivered through democracy.
There are decades where nothing happens then there are weeks when decades happen, as Lenin said.
The Remain side genuinely don't intend to try to remain if they lose it,
Haha!!!!
See, Leave voters are so sure on this point that I got two consecutive emojis...
We're finally at the point where a referendum would make tactical sense for Leave supporters, but we need them to shift enough to make Tory MPs feel like they can vote for it without upsetting their members. To make that happen, we need to work out how to reassure them that if they win, they will actually get their thing.
Binding binding binding
As someone who supported & voted No in the 2014 Indy Ref, then supported & voted Remain in the EU Ref in 2016. I can tell you that another EU Ref does not make any tactical sense or hold any appeal to me, especially with the SNP and Scottish Greens constantly threatening another Indy Ref up here!
I also suspect that another EU Referendum will not hold any appeal to a lot of Labour MPs who are sitting in strong Leave constituencies, but without huge majorities like Lisa Nandy who now seems to have jumped off the fence & is in favour or revoking Article 50 despite the EU Ref result in her constituency. As future Leadership bids go, not a great start if you are prepared to ignore your constituents as well as risking your colleagues in seats not as secure as your own.
Because a lot of Tory voters want leave, believe that May will be cast out, and the one true Brexit shall be revealed. Or something like that
That may be the view of some of them but I think a lot of the voters are just not that into Brexit. The activists are big on it, but the EU was never really a huge issue with most voters. Immigration was a big deal, but lately it's not so salient. The people on each side who do care about the EU make a lot of noise, and politics nerds like us know that it's substantively important compared to other things the government does, but a large proportion of the voters just aren't that interested.
They do indeed exist. Stephen Lloyd, a Liberal Democrat MP who resigned the whip back in December to back Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement after he pledged to honour the result of the EU Ref during his 2017 GE campaign.
Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.
It would be a YUGE leap forward for mankind if you were to justify that claim rather than just repeating it. Because democracy means letting the people decide things, and your position is that the people must be prevented at all costs from deciding the most pressing question du jour, which looks paradoxicaI to me.
I have pointed you to the fact that ancient Athens, a rather effective direct democracy, was happy to vote on the same substantive issue on two consecutive days.
So what, actually, is your *reasoned* case?
The reasoned case is that the sovereign people gave an instruction. (“Leave the EU”)
The Executive have negotiated a deal. People may not like the deal but the Executive has done its job
The Legislature has taken it upon itself to prevent the executive doing its job and to frustrate the decision of the sovereign authority.
If this was the established constitutional process then it would be an incredibly terrible process: The point of the sovereign people giving an instruction is so they can get what they want, so it's all gone horribly wrong if they don't want what they get when they get it.
But it's not an established constitutional process, it's something David Cameron pulled out if his arse, and fortunately in the British constitution parliament isn't bound by the brainfarts of failed former prime ministers.
Just insert John Bercown instead of David Cameron, hopefully the British constitution in Parliament won't be bound when he becomes a failed former Speaker....
When was the last time Theresa May spoke to anyone on the doorstep?
According to my twitter feed, May has continued to get out on the doorsteps regularly, campaigning most weekends on Saturdays when her diary allows. I have to admit, I admire her for that commitment considering her incredible workload as PM over the last year. In stark contrast, Nicola Sturgeon seems to find far too much time during her working week to do this kind of photo op campaigning while leaving her weekends free to spend too much time on twitter promoting her reading material such as the SNP supporting National weekend supplement & other books.
When was the last time Theresa May spoke to anyone on the doorstep?
She’s an active campaigner - knocks on doors most Saturdays. As many of us do, as members of political parties.
I realise even in a busy job there's time for other matters, but is that really the best use of the PM's time right now?
You do realise that Theresa May despite being Conservative Leader and PM is still an elected MP like every MP with a responsibility to her constituents?
In May 2009 Conservatives had 13-22% lead in the polls which pointed to a clear Majority in 2010.
Con win by 7% and Hung parliament
There were 44 polls in May 2014. 93% had Labour ahead.
Conservative majority in May 2015 with a 6 winning point margin
In 2015 there were 69 opinion polls on Brexit. 86% of them had Remain winning, with an average margin of 8%...
Leave win by 4%
From Jan 2017 until she announced the GE in April that year, Theresa May’s Tories had an average poll lead of 15% which pointed toward a landslide.
Result was a 2.5% win, majority lost & supply & confidence with the DUP
Long term hypothetical Opinion polls have an incredible record at being at odds with the eventual result, yet are now being used as evidence that public opinion on Brexit has turned so much that the whole thing should be run again.
That's a very good point.
But it isn't just opinion polls is it. There are regular demonstrations up and down the country, a million strong one just a few weeks ago. There was a multi-million petition. And everybody is talking about it.
#fakenews it was emphatically not a million.
Well my estimate was 950,000 - but that is pretty close.
I thought in reality the official figure was it was somewhere around 400,000. Which is about the same as the Countryside marches and well behind the Anti-war march
There is no official figure. I just totted up the total number of people you could fit in the route and guessed from how long the march was on that it turned over about twice, and added 30,000 for all the people milling around the parks along the route.
It's very easy to underestimate the numbers in big crowds. You can get a million people into a circle just 600m in diameter.
Comments
https://youtu.be/4xr9-CkZZRk
There is quite evidently a battle within the party to determine what they are about and how broad a coalition it is and should be. Longstanding members who passionately believe in the party as they see it will no doubt find themselves, unfairly in their eyes, seen as no longer truly being a part of the party and forced out. Is this not part of the defector defence sometimes seen of 'I have not left party X, party X left me'?
Whether we Brexit or remain, anyone who thinks that will settle the divide in the party, or the country, is deluded.
Pleasant dreams of a day when Brexit does not define us. In 2065
A cross party deal has the best chance of uniting the country , it’s not just what the Tory party wants . As a Remainer I’m willing to move on if a cross party deal is done .
I’m sure the public will quickly get behind a compromise. The hate mongers wanting to stir up betrayal narratives if there’s Tory Labour deal need to shut up and stop sowing division .
?????
Referendum? General election? A national Che Guevara Day? Abolition of the Monarchy?
The possibilities are endless with Theresa May...
For me the fundamental point in all this has not changed - is it in enough MPs' interests to agree a deal of any sort? Or rather, do enough of them see it as in their interests?
May is under real pressure from her backbenches.
A signal of progress and iminent deal noises might make them think it’s already too late.
I used to think no one could be a more poorly suited person to be PM than Gordon Brown with all the incompetence that follows, but May now takes the crown.
The worst UK leader almost certainly ever. And the depths she can sink to haven't been reached yet.
As a lifelong Tory voter, until she goes along with nearly all her cabinet, I like most, have no party to vote for.
At the end of the day Corbyn is not as relevant as the media suggest, it is May who will set the agenda of the Deal to put forward based on what is most likely to get Commons support and based on the indicative votes that remains Deal plus Customs Union and that is what she is likely to propose next week and to the EU as an update to the PD.
There are decades where nothing happens then there are weeks when decades happen, as Lenin said.
I also suspect that another EU Referendum will not hold any appeal to a lot of Labour MPs who are sitting in strong Leave constituencies, but without huge majorities like Lisa Nandy who now seems to have jumped off the fence & is in favour or revoking Article 50 despite the EU Ref result in her constituency. As future Leadership bids go, not a great start if you are prepared to ignore your constituents as well as risking your colleagues in seats not as secure as your own.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47842572
It's very easy to underestimate the numbers in big crowds. You can get a million people into a circle just 600m in diameter.