I see the Conservatives have already won 15 out 39 seats on Fenland council. 12 are returned unopposed, 3 guaranteed election, due to a shortage of opponents.
So far, I've seen 61 Conservative returned unopposed, or guaranteed election.
76 Conservatives, 6 Lib Dems, 2 Labour.
Of the 39 seats, I wonder how many of the councillors are not related?
They generally prefer the imperial system of measure to decimal, not because it is more British, but because twelve toes equals a foot.
Oddly, it was a Lib Dem seat from 1973 to 1987, but they no longer feature.
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
I am from the Remain side of the argument. I think leaving the EU is an act of monumental stupidity. In fact I can think of only one thing in our recent history to match it in the stupidity stakes and that was the decision to allow the people to choose it in a referendum.
Nevertheless I agree with you. It was a clear win for Leave and it is now up to the politicians to make the best of it. If they can't agree to leave in an orderly fashion, and they are not prepared to leave in a disorderly fashion, then they should take it on the chin and cancel.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told the details.
The Readers' Digest Presidential election survey of 1936, gives you the answer.
I don’t see why Remainers have any responsibility to deal with Leaver impossibilism. If Leavers cannot work out what they want it is not for Remainers to decide for them. If Leavers have failed in their task, and they have, it is open to Remainers now to offer their own ideas as to the best way forward.
But there would appear to be a clear majority developing amongst Leavers for "We voted to leave, so let's just leave. We want OUT!"
OK, often said in the most frightful oiky way, but still. It's heartfelt.
A majority of a majority is not a majority and they have no mandate for risking high disruption just because they’ve failed to come up with any coherent positive vision.
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
I am from the Remain side of the argument. I think leaving the EU is an act of monumental stupidity. In fact I can think of only one thing in our recent history to match it in the stupidity stakes and that was the decision to allow the people to choose it in a referendum.
Nevertheless I agree with you. It was a clear win for Leave and it is now up to the politicians to make the best of it. If they can't agree to leave in an orderly fashion, and they are not prepared to leave in a disorderly fashion, then they should take it on the chin and cancel.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told.
I do not think we need to be told - it is very obvious the no dealers are in a large minority
The problem is that keyboards don't come with zimmer frames attached
I don’t see why Remainers have any responsibility to deal with Leaver impossibilism. If Leavers cannot work out what they want it is not for Remainers to decide for them. If Leavers have failed in their task, and they have, it is open to Remainers now to offer their own ideas as to the best way forward.
Sarah Vine blames "powerful cabals" for Brexit being a shambles. Nothing to do with having promised the undeliverable...
Sarah Vine is beginning to worry me. She refers to people as "subhuman" and now it's "powerful cabals". If she was just a Daily Mail columnist it wouldn't be so bad (and arguably there's a lot worse). But she is also the wife of Michael Gove. Since Gove is one of the few adults in the Cabinet and may yet become PM, I'd be worried if the wielder of supreme executive power was married to a person who thinks other people are less than human.
I see the Conservatives have already won 15 out 39 seats on Fenland council. 12 are returned unopposed, 3 guaranteed election, due to a shortage of opponents.
So far, I've seen 61 Conservative returned unopposed, or guaranteed election.
I’ll be voting Conservative in the locals.
East Hampshire district council is one of the best in the country.
What is a guaranteed election? Is it Tory v Tory?
A 3 member ward where one party puts up a full slate, and only faces one or two opponents.
I should add that there are droves of rural Conservatives who are only facing independents or Greens.
I see the Conservatives have already won 15 out 39 seats on Fenland council. 12 are returned unopposed, 3 guaranteed election, due to a shortage of opponents.
So far, I've seen 61 Conservative returned unopposed, or guaranteed election.
I’ll be voting Conservative in the locals.
East Hampshire district council is one of the best in the country.
If we did revoke A50, it would not be back to pre-referendum times in the sense that the UK's view of the EU has been very publicly shown to be not wholly positive to put it mildly.
Would this fact act as any kind of brake at all on ever closer union in the years ahead? A number of people i know who voted Leave did so not because the situation with the UK/EU relationship was inherently objectionable but that it seemed the only way to avoid a future where the UK would be dragged in to the EU project much further than they were comfortable with. I.e. Remain was not a vote for the status quo but risked being seen a green light to "More Europe"
I.e. is it possible that a referendum which ended up with technically no change might still therefore have some effect on slowing integration?
It would vary depending on the issue.
On the one hand the UK would find it a lot harder to win support from other EU countries for its position because we have caused so much disruption for the last three years. This might make it easier for further integration to take place, or at least that it takes place in a way contrary to the UK governments perception of the national interest.
On the other hand, UK Prime Minister's would be nervous about the reaction of the Leave 52% and so might be more willing to use the veto to hold up further integration, where a veto still exists.
On topic: This excellent article by Cyclefree and the responses to it (especially by Labour supporters) are an object lesson in how partisanship distorts understanding. The header very carefully and cogently defines five ways in which Trump and Corbyn are similar. And what's the response (even from Nick P)? To completely ignore the five points Ms Cyclefree makes, and instead to say 'Oh no, Corbyn's not like Trump because of this other difference'.
Well, yes. There are obvious big differences between the two. But the header is spot-on on the disturbing similarities.
Apologies for not having read earlier answers in the thread but the header seems a bit woolly and in places talks not about the principals themselves but their followers, and you could probably make similar comments about, say, Theresa May. Brexit ticks disruptive foreign and trade policies, there are dodgy followers; she made a break with Cameroon policies.
Where does it get us? Corbyn (or May) is like Trump in some ways but not in others and therefore, what exactly?
Apologies for reposting but they are the same in this respect:
A feature of Trump is that his form of defence is attack. While making out that he is the sole purveyor of truth and those attacking him are guilty of any number of sins in a textbook exercise in diversion. In addition it is only a tight cabal that is "on our side" while the rest are enemies. Or in Corbyn's case, class enemies.
And so we have a discussion on manifesto costings leading to the observation that if not actively an anti-semitic areshole, Corbyn has transparently evidently engendered a culture in the Labour Party whereby it is ok to be an anti-semitic arsehole, which I think legitimately allows it to be said that Jeremy Corbyn is indeed thereby an anti-semitic arsehole.
@TheJezziah then launched a full scale but what about the Tories, what about you, diversion and dissembling ad hominem exercise. Which was positively Trumpian in its form and content. And this to a former Labour voter, not an avowed dyed-in-the-wool right winger, illustrating the you're either one of us or one of them Trump cult MO.
Yes - if there is a GE all parties apart from the Tories and perhaps the DUP will have some kind of commitment to a referendum in their manifesto, however qualified, so it's almost certain that a new parliament would contain a majority of MPs elected on a mandate for a second vote.
Which is why the PV crowd ought to be full square with Jeremy Corbyn and arguing for a general election. That they aren't raises both my suspicions and my heckles.
It won't pass because it is foolish and dumb. A referendum that doesn't resolve things isn't going to be agreed, period. And a referedum that unites hard Brexiters and hard remainers - the two most motivated groups - in campaigning against a government deal would be an obvious disaster waiting to happen.
But the same point applies to DEAL v REMAIN. Those same 2 most motivated groups would be united in campaigning against the Deal.
A Deal v Remain referendum would force Brexiteers to confront the essential question of whether they truly want to leave in practice, in a world in which the EU continues to exist.
Some will campaign for the deal. Some will say Brexit is pointless and we might as well stay. Some may duck the question and try to discredit the vote.
Whatever happens, we will get a clear and legitimate result that we can implement without further delay.
By trashing the deal so much on spurious grounds, Leavers have already wrecked their case in any referendum on it vs Remain. What a shame.
This is where TMay's strategy was all wrong. She should have at least threatened them with a referendum as soon as the outline of the deal was known, to make them think twice about demagoguing it.
Everything seems to be heading towards a long extension, and there is a noticeably different tone coming from ministers last night and this morning.
However, this probably still needs either a referendum or an election to fix it.
I think the long extension is almost nailed on. Even Cabinet members are talking about it today.
There will probably be a PV vote on Monday, which might pass. In which case that provides the justification for an extension. Otherwise the alternative looks like a GE.
If there's a GE we don't need to identify a deal now. If there's a PV then Parliament will probably identify the WA+CU option as the preferred, or just possibly WA+CM2
The Euro elections will be fun.
I just need to work out which is the worst bunch of lunatics to vote for.
Farage's new Brexit Party will surely win the European elections comfortably and perhaps be enough to give Nationalists the largest number of seats in the European Parliament
They could, so could the TIGs or UKIP. Probably not the Tories.
It won't pass because it is foolish and dumb. A referendum that doesn't resolve things isn't going to be agreed, period. And a referedum that unites hard Brexiters and hard remainers - the two most motivated groups - in campaigning against a government deal would be an obvious disaster waiting to happen.
But the same point applies to DEAL v REMAIN. Those same 2 most motivated groups would be united in campaigning against the Deal.
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
I am from the Remain side of the argument. I think leaving the EU is an act of monumental stupidity. In fact I can think of only one thing in our recent history to match it in the stupidity stakes and that was the decision to allow the people to choose it in a referendum.
Nevertheless I agree with you. It was a clear win for Leave and it is now up to the politicians to make the best of it. If they can't agree to leave in an orderly fashion, and they are not prepared to leave in a disorderly fashion, then they should take it on the chin and cancel.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told.
I do not think we need to be told - it is very obvious the no dealers are in a large minority
Except unfortunately in parliament where they seem to number >>100 including some intelligent MPs who speak sensibly on other issues.
If public support really is this low, parliament should agree to a 3-way referendum with a run-off.
I am shocked, shocked that William Barr, clean up man for Iran Contra and the Bush Jr's Iraq adventure turns out to have been less than truthful about the Mueller report.
I'm also totally amazed, amazed, that the American media, from high to low, fell for it yet again.
Everything seems to be heading towards a long extension, and there is a noticeably different tone coming from ministers last night and this morning.
However, this probably still needs either a referendum or an election to fix it.
I think the long extension is almost nailed on. Even Cabinet members are talking about it today.
There will probably be a PV vote on Monday, which might pass. In which case that provides the justification for an extension. Otherwise the alternative looks like a GE.
If there's a GE we don't need to identify a deal now. If there's a PV then Parliament will probably identify the WA+CU option as the preferred, or just possibly WA+CM2
The Euro elections will be fun.
I just need to work out which is the worst bunch of lunatics to vote for.
Farage's new Brexit Party will surely win the European elections comfortably and perhaps be enough to give Nationalists the largest number of seats in the European Parliament
They could, so could the TIGs or UKIP. Probably not the Tories.
I suggested earlier that Cons could bolster their Brexit credentials by not taking part in the elections - as we are leaving.
I see the Conservatives have already won 15 out 39 seats on Fenland council. 12 are returned unopposed, 3 guaranteed election, due to a shortage of opponents.
So far, I've seen 61 Conservative returned unopposed, or guaranteed election.
I’ll be voting Conservative in the locals.
East Hampshire district council is one of the best in the country.
Now there's a surprise ;-)
But it is. EHDC has the lowest or joint lowest council tax of an authority of its kind in England and has frozen it for years. Its leader wants to phase out resident contributions entirely.
By contrast, Hampshire County Council seems to be a jobs creation scheme for friends of Roy Perry, who’s bestrode it like an emperor for years.
‘No Deal’ cannot be put to a referendum because it is meaningless. There is no such thing as ‘No Deal’. In reality you’d need lots of smaller deals and there’s no direction from the referendum of what these would look like or how close the eventual relationship with the EU would be. You could leave with No Deal then immediately sign up to EEA/EFTA.
It means nothing and anyone suggesting otherwise hasn’t thought it through.
I see the Conservatives have already won 15 out 39 seats on Fenland council. 12 are returned unopposed, 3 guaranteed election, due to a shortage of opponents.
So far, I've seen 61 Conservative returned unopposed, or guaranteed election.
76 Conservatives, 6 Lib Dems, 2 Labour.
Of the 39 seats, I wonder how many of the councillors are not related?
They generally prefer the imperial system of measure to decimal, not because it is more British, but because twelve toes equals a foot.
Oddly, it was a Lib Dem seat from 1973 to 1987, but they no longer feature.
Clement Freud, who was the MP once said that at his selection meeting a dozen or so Liberals turned up, plus 15 or so OAP's from the Home across the road, who fancied hearing him speak. He won the nomination 15-12. He also funded his office for some time from his winnings as a result of his election (He was about 33-1 when the campaign started. IIRC)
There are a lot of people in Labour who don't like the idea (Lucy Powell was very hostile on the radio) but I think it would infuriate too many of their supporters not to demand it.
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told.
I do not think we need to be told - it is very obvious the no dealers are in a large minority
The brutal reality is that unless they have 20 million signatures, neither petition is going to change anything. We know that revoking could probably happen without riots, as not enough no dealers are of the rioting type. The harm is to the democratic process, which becomes a farce. There was already widespread apathy and cynicism before the referendum, with the concern being that all politicians were the same and nothing ever changed. If you can't vote for change, what is the point of even having a vote? And if your life keeps getting worse, to the point where life feels like an impossible struggle, how do you change anything? Does one simply give up on the pursuit of justice or does one try to resolve the situation some other way? That is the problem, as I see it.
Everything seems to be heading towards a long extension, and there is a noticeably different tone coming from ministers last night and this morning.
However, this probably still needs either a referendum or an election to fix it.
I think the long extension is almost nailed on. Even Cabinet members are talking about it today.
There will probably be a PV vote on Monday, which might pass. In which case that provides the justification for an extension. Otherwise the alternative looks like a GE.
If there's a GE we don't need to identify a deal now. If there's a PV then Parliament will probably identify the WA+CU option as the preferred, or just possibly WA+CM2
The Euro elections will be fun.
I just need to work out which is the worst bunch of lunatics to vote for.
Farage's new Brexit Party will surely win the European elections comfortably and perhaps be enough to give Nationalists the largest number of seats in the European Parliament
They could, so could the TIGs or UKIP. Probably not the Tories.
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told.
I do not think we need to be told - it is very obvious the no dealers are in a large minority
The brutal reality is that unless they have 20 million signatures, neither petition is going to change anything. We know that revoking could probably happen without riots, as not enough no dealers are of the rioting type. The harm is to the democratic process, which becomes a farce. There was already widespread apathy and cynicism before the referendum, with the concern being that all politicians were the same and nothing ever changed. If you can't vote for change, what is the point of even having a vote? And if your life keeps getting worse, to the point where life feels like an impossible struggle, how do you change anything? Does one simply give up on the pursuit of justice or does one try to resolve the situation some other way? That is the problem, as I see it.
Is Swiss democracy a farce because they ignored the result of their ‘anti immigration’ referendum?
Surely the answer for both parties is that they agree to allow a free vote in the House on a PV.
The bulk of Tories now back No Deal, the bulk of Labour now back a PV the problem is Deal plus Customs Union is closer to a majority in the Commons than either No Deal or a PV, a free vote is the way forward given both May and Corbyn are actually closer to each other now on Brexit than their own parties
I don’t see why Remainers have any responsibility to deal with Leaver impossibilism. If Leavers cannot work out what they want it is not for Remainers to decide for them. If Leavers have failed in their task, and they have, it is open to Remainers now to offer their own ideas as to the best way forward.
Sarah Vine blames "powerful cabals" for Brexit being a shambles. Nothing to do with having promised the undeliverable...
Sarah Vine is beginning to worry me. She refers to people as "subhuman" and now it's "powerful cabals". If she was just a Daily Mail columnist it wouldn't be so bad (and arguably there's a lot worse). But she is also the wife of Michael Gove. Since Gove is one of the few adults in the Cabinet and may yet become PM, I'd be worried if the wielder of supreme executive power was married to a person who thinks other people are less than human.
She is as nasty and halfwitted as her husband, in fact likely to be nastier.
On topic: This excellent article by Cyclefree and the responses to it (especially by Labour supporters) are an object lesson in how partisanship distorts understanding. The header very carefully and cogently defines five ways in which Trump and Corbyn are similar. And what's the response (even from Nick P)? To completely ignore the five points Ms Cyclefree makes, and instead to say 'Oh no, Corbyn's not like Trump because of this other difference'.
Well, yes. There are obvious big differences between the two. But the header is spot-on on the disturbing similarities.
That there are similarities between the populist left and the populist right is an undeniably interesting and accurate observation.
But Trump being such a horrible individual, and given that his politics are all about him, the personalized framing of the comparison "The British Trump" is off the mark.
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
I am from the Remain side of the argument. I think leaving the EU is an act of monumental stupidity. In fact I can think of only one thing in our recent history to match it in the stupidity stakes and that was the decision to allow the people to choose it in a referendum.
Nevertheless I agree with you. It was a clear win for Leave and it is now up to the politicians to make the best of it. If they can't agree to leave in an orderly fashion, and they are not prepared to leave in a disorderly fashion, then they should take it on the chin and cancel.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told the details.
The Readers' Digest Presidential election survey of 1936, gives you the answer.
Quite - I see a real divide in my Facebook timeline. People like me with university degree, professional career etc are highly pro remain. People I grew up with in the north from my school are much more likely to be posting pro no deal and tommy Robinson nonsense. I would prefer to hang around with the first lot, but it doesn’t mean that the others shouldn’t have a voice or their wishes enacted.
If we did revoke A50, it would not be back to pre-referendum times in the sense that the UK's view of the EU has been very publicly shown to be not wholly positive to put it mildly.
Would this fact act as any kind of brake at all on ever closer union in the years ahead? A number of people i know who voted Leave did so not because the situation with the UK/EU relationship was inherently objectionable but that it seemed the only way to avoid a future where the UK would be dragged in to the EU project much further than they were comfortable with. I.e. Remain was not a vote for the status quo but risked being seen a green light to "More Europe"
I.e. is it possible that a referendum which ended up with technically no change might still therefore have some effect on slowing integration?
Ever closer union always was a straw man only beloved of those at extreme ends of the argument. It was like Labour's Clause 4, (well, before Comrade Thicky came to lead Labour!); there as a sop to those that believed in it, but really genuinely meaningless.
I see the Conservatives have already won 15 out 39 seats on Fenland council. 12 are returned unopposed, 3 guaranteed election, due to a shortage of opponents.
So far, I've seen 61 Conservative returned unopposed, or guaranteed election.
I’ll be voting Conservative in the locals.
East Hampshire district council is one of the best in the country.
What is a guaranteed election? Is it Tory v Tory?
A 3 member ward where one party puts up a full slate, and only faces one or two opponents.
I should add that there are droves of rural Conservatives who are only facing independents or Greens.
I bet such Cllrs aren't feeling quite so safe as usual?
I see we've drifted off topic to that minor subject of Brexit. If we are going off topic, can we at least discuss the vitally important by-election in Newport West today?
(In any other time, the by-election would be the only thing discussed today - but this is not any other time anymore)
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told.
I do not think we need to be told - it is very obvious the no dealers are in a large minority
The brutal reality is that unless they have 20 million signatures, neither petition is going to change anything. We know that revoking could probably happen without riots, as not enough no dealers are of the rioting type. The harm is to the democratic process, which becomes a farce. There was already widespread apathy and cynicism before the referendum, with the concern being that all politicians were the same and nothing ever changed. If you can't vote for change, what is the point of even having a vote? And if your life keeps getting worse, to the point where life feels like an impossible struggle, how do you change anything? Does one simply give up on the pursuit of justice or does one try to resolve the situation some other way? That is the problem, as I see it.
Is Swiss democracy a farce because they ignored the result of their ‘anti immigration’ referendum?
It is easier to ignore as they have so many. If we have one here once in a blue moon then ignoring has more consequences
The key difference is that whichever of deal or remain wins resolves the matter. Which is why that is the only referendum parliament is likely to agree.
Probably right. However I would not completely rule out the prospect of getting Hard Brexit on the ballot in some way.
That said, the most likely way I see REF2 happening is via a crisis GE with Labour running on that commitment and winning. In which case I imagine the REF would be Remain vs Labour's renegotiated deal (BINO).
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
I am from the Remain side of the argument. I think leaving the EU is an act of monumental stupidity. In fact I can think of only one thing in our recent history to match it in the stupidity stakes and that was the decision to allow the people to choose it in a referendum.
Nevertheless I agree with you. It was a clear win for Leave and it is now up to the politicians to make the best of it. If they can't agree to leave in an orderly fashion, and they are not prepared to leave in a disorderly fashion, then they should take it on the chin and cancel.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told.
I do not think we need to be told - it is very obvious the no dealers are in a large minority
I equally think it obvious that no dealers consider petitions a pile of virtue-signalling shite....
Yes - if there is a GE all parties apart from the Tories and perhaps the DUP will have some kind of commitment to a referendum in their manifesto, however qualified, so it's almost certain that a new parliament would contain a majority of MPs elected on a mandate for a second vote.
Which is why the PV crowd ought to be full square with Jeremy Corbyn and arguing for a general election. That they aren't raises both my suspicions and my heckles.
Few MPs really want an election. Things are so unpredictable, many cannot be sure that their career will not be prematurely terminated. But I think it's coming anyway, probably following on from May's departure and the election of a new Tory leader who will struggle to command a majority.
If we did revoke A50, it would not be back to pre-referendum times in the sense that the UK's view of the EU has been very publicly shown to be not wholly positive to put it mildly.
Would this fact act as any kind of brake at all on ever closer union in the years ahead? A number of people i know who voted Leave did so not because the situation with the UK/EU relationship was inherently objectionable but that it seemed the only way to avoid a future where the UK would be dragged in to the EU project much further than they were comfortable with. I.e. Remain was not a vote for the status quo but risked being seen a green light to "More Europe"
I.e. is it possible that a referendum which ended up with technically no change might still therefore have some effect on slowing integration?
No it'll be full steam ahead for full integration.
The same "pressure" that's been used to subvert the referendum will be used to get us into the Euro within a decade.
Yes - if there is a GE all parties apart from the Tories and perhaps the DUP will have some kind of commitment to a referendum in their manifesto, however qualified, so it's almost certain that a new parliament would contain a majority of MPs elected on a mandate for a second vote.
Which is why the PV crowd ought to be full square with Jeremy Corbyn and arguing for a general election. That they aren't raises both my suspicions and my heckles.
Few MPs really want an election. Things are so unpredictable, many cannot be sure that their career will not be prematurely terminated. But I think it's coming anyway, probably following on from May's departure and the election of a new Tory leader who will struggle to command a majority.
I see we've drifted off topic to that minor subject of Brexit. If we are going off topic, can we at least discuss the vitally important by-election in Newport West today?
(In any other time, the by-election would be the only thing discussed today - but this is not any other time anymore)
I’m about twenty miles away. Weather is cold and wet.
If we did revoke A50, it would not be back to pre-referendum times in the sense that the UK's view of the EU has been very publicly shown to be not wholly positive to put it mildly.
Would this fact act as any kind of brake at all on ever closer union in the years ahead? A number of people i know who voted Leave did so not because the situation with the UK/EU relationship was inherently objectionable but that it seemed the only way to avoid a future where the UK would be dragged in to the EU project much further than they were comfortable with. I.e. Remain was not a vote for the status quo but risked being seen a green light to "More Europe"
I.e. is it possible that a referendum which ended up with technically no change might still therefore have some effect on slowing integration?
No it'll be full steam ahead for full integration.
The same "pressure" that's been used to subvert the referendum will be used to get us into the Euro within a decade.
The EU has not seen a question to which the answer is not ever closer union
If we did revoke A50, it would not be back to pre-referendum times in the sense that the UK's view of the EU has been very publicly shown to be not wholly positive to put it mildly.
Would this fact act as any kind of brake at all on ever closer union in the years ahead? A number of people i know who voted Leave did so not because the situation with the UK/EU relationship was inherently objectionable but that it seemed the only way to avoid a future where the UK would be dragged in to the EU project much further than they were comfortable with. I.e. Remain was not a vote for the status quo but risked being seen a green light to "More Europe"
I.e. is it possible that a referendum which ended up with technically no change might still therefore have some effect on slowing integration?
No it'll be full steam ahead for full integration.
The same "pressure" that's been used to subvert the referendum will be used to get us into the Euro within a decade.
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
I am from the Remain side of the argument. I think leaving the EU is an act of monumental stupidity. In fact I can think of only one thing in our recent history to match it in the stupidity stakes and that was the decision to allow the people to choose it in a referendum.
Nevertheless I agree with you. It was a clear win for Leave and it is now up to the politicians to make the best of it. If they can't agree to leave in an orderly fashion, and they are not prepared to leave in a disorderly fashion, then they should take it on the chin and cancel.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told the details.
The Readers' Digest Presidential election survey of 1936, gives you the answer.
Alf Landon! Didn't think I'd see him turn up in today's thread......
Everything seems to be heading towards a long extension, and there is a noticeably different tone coming from ministers last night and this morning.
However, this probably still needs either a referendum or an election to fix it.
I think the long extension is almost nailed on. Even Cabinet members are talking about it today.
There will probably be a PV vote on Monday, which might pass. In which case that provides the justification for an extension. Otherwise the alternative looks like a GE.
If there's a GE we don't need to identify a deal now. If there's a PV then Parliament will probably identify the WA+CU option as the preferred, or just possibly WA+CM2
The Euro elections will be fun.
I just need to work out which is the worst bunch of lunatics to vote for.
Farage's new Brexit Party will surely win the European elections comfortably and perhaps be enough to give Nationalists the largest number of seats in the European Parliament
No way I’m encouraging him.
I’d vote for someone like Lord Buckethead but, unfortunately, he’s a europhile.
Canvassing for the Tories I think we would be lucky to get 1 MEP per region if as is increasingly likely we are still in the EU and contest the European elections either because of lengthy extension or revoke
Assuming LetwinCooper passes the Lords doesn’t it make it illegal not to request an extension?
Yes, but the question is whether the EU 27 will agree to one.
There's a school of thought that says that parliament will have to vote for a practical way forward to avoid abruptly exiting the EU horizontally through the saloon bar doors.
I think this probably isn't right: It's better if parliament strings out the negotiations, so TMay can say "we're having negotiations and need time to complete them", rather than "we tried everything and nothing works, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯"
If we did revoke A50, it would not be back to pre-referendum times in the sense that the UK's view of the EU has been very publicly shown to be not wholly positive to put it mildly.
Would this fact act as any kind of brake at all on ever closer union in the years ahead? A number of people i know who voted Leave did so not because the situation with the UK/EU relationship was inherently objectionable but that it seemed the only way to avoid a future where the UK would be dragged in to the EU project much further than they were comfortable with. I.e. Remain was not a vote for the status quo but risked being seen a green light to "More Europe"
I.e. is it possible that a referendum which ended up with technically no change might still therefore have some effect on slowing integration?
No it'll be full steam ahead for full integration.
The same "pressure" that's been used to subvert the referendum will be used to get us into the Euro within a decade.
Good. Can’t fight globalism.
The times they are a-changin'.
I do wonder if Brexit is like Canute standing in the surf at Bosham - but without the self-awareness.
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
I am from the Remain side of the argument. I think leaving the EU is an act of monumental stupidity. In fact I can think of only one thing in our recent history to match it in the stupidity stakes and that was the decision to allow the people to choose it in a referendum.
Nevertheless I agree with you. It was a clear win for Leave and it is now up to the politicians to make the best of it. If they can't agree to leave in an orderly fashion, and they are not prepared to leave in a disorderly fashion, then they should take it on the chin and cancel.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told.
I do not think we need to be told - it is very obvious the no dealers are in a large minority
I equally think it obvious that no dealers consider petitions a pile of virtue-signalling shite....
No dealers don't like signing up to anything specific
If we did revoke A50, it would not be back to pre-referendum times in the sense that the UK's view of the EU has been very publicly shown to be not wholly positive to put it mildly.
Would this fact act as any kind of brake at all on ever closer union in the years ahead? A number of people i know who voted Leave did so not because the situation with the UK/EU relationship was inherently objectionable but that it seemed the only way to avoid a future where the UK would be dragged in to the EU project much further than they were comfortable with. I.e. Remain was not a vote for the status quo but risked being seen a green light to "More Europe"
I.e. is it possible that a referendum which ended up with technically no change might still therefore have some effect on slowing integration?
No it'll be full steam ahead for full integration.
The same "pressure" that's been used to subvert the referendum will be used to get us into the Euro within a decade.
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
I am from the Remain side of the argument. I think leaving the EU is an act of monumental stupidity. In fact I can think of only one thing in our recent history to match it in the stupidity stakes and that was the decision to allow the people to choose it in a referendum.
Nevertheless I agree with you. It was a clear win for Leave and it is now up to the politicians to make the best of it. If they can't agree to leave in an orderly fashion, and they are not prepared to leave in a disorderly fashion, then they should take it on the chin and cancel.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told the details.
The Readers' Digest Presidential election survey of 1936, gives you the answer.
The Literary Digest, to be pedantic.
Plus I think you are wrong; we are all computer literate these days. That said, I think there is are two simple reasons for the discrepancy, one being that No deal leave is a subset of leave, and the other that you don't have to ask for what you have already (at least on paper) got.
Surely the answer for both parties is that they agree to allow a free vote in the House on a PV.
Then ignore the result as they have the referendum ?
The referendum hasn't been ignored, but has been pursued beyond all reason. Hence the mess we are in.
It has been pursued by those lacking reason. Hence the mess we are in.
To be fair, the referendum was so vague that it spawned a number of factions that can't decide what 'Leave' meant. If it had been defined Remain would have been by far the largest faction at 48%.
I see the Conservatives have already won 15 out 39 seats on Fenland council. 12 are returned unopposed, 3 guaranteed election, due to a shortage of opponents.
So far, I've seen 61 Conservative returned unopposed, or guaranteed election.
I’ll be voting Conservative in the locals.
East Hampshire district council is one of the best in the country.
What is a guaranteed election? Is it Tory v Tory?
A 3 member ward where one party puts up a full slate, and only faces one or two opponents.
I should add that there are droves of rural Conservatives who are only facing independents or Greens.
I bet such Cllrs aren't feeling quite so safe as usual?
Now up to 88 Conservatives unopposed or guaranteed, and 8 Lib Dems.
The EU said last week in the event of No Deal there would be no mini/sectoral deals.
Pretty bold by them considering we hold all the cards.
It’s not flights to/from the EU that are the problem. According to the article nothing has yet been done to replace the EU’s air services agreements with the US, Canada and Australia.
I liked the Cherry motion, which would have generated exactly this binary.
Change the default from No Deal to Revoke. One more chance to pass the WA, if no it's game over.
Such a pity that having the name SNP on it ruled it out.
And the bit about ignoring 17.4M votes just because May couldn't run a bath.
Advisory votes, and if what we have put up with for the last nearly 3 years is ignoring them, I hate to think what paying attention to them would have looked like.
(OT, but of definite appeal to Cyclefree) A tremendous article on the US college admissions scandal:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/what-college-admissions-scandal-reveals/586468/ But the Dealmaker of the Year spent considerable time kicking the tires on this one. “Keep in mind I am a lawyer,” Caplan said at one point, according to the affidavit. “So I’m sort of rules oriented.” And, later, “I’m not worried about the moral issue here. I’m worried about the, if she’s caught doing that, you know, she’s finished.”
Much of the discussion of this scandal has centered on the corruption in the college-admissions process. But think about the kinds of jobs that the indicted parents held. Four of them worked in private equity, a fifth in the field of “investments,” others in real-estate development and the most senior management of huge corporations. Together, they have handled billions of dollars’ worth of assets within heavily regulated fields—yet look how easily and how eagerly they allegedly embrace a crooked scheme, as quoted in the court documents...
AIUI the scooby cooper bill means parliament must approve the extension, so if the EU come back with something different to Mays request it has to pass parliament on Thursday.... is cooper facilitating an accidental no deal?
If we did revoke A50, it would not be back to pre-referendum times in the sense that the UK's view of the EU has been very publicly shown to be not wholly positive to put it mildly.
Would this fact act as any kind of brake at all on ever closer union in the years ahead? A number of people i know who voted Leave did so not because the situation with the UK/EU relationship was inherently objectionable but that it seemed the only way to avoid a future where the UK would be dragged in to the EU project much further than they were comfortable with. I.e. Remain was not a vote for the status quo but risked being seen a green light to "More Europe"
I.e. is it possible that a referendum which ended up with technically no change might still therefore have some effect on slowing integration?
No it'll be full steam ahead for full integration.
The same "pressure" that's been used to subvert the referendum will be used to get us into the Euro within a decade.
Good. Can’t fight globalism.
Why is globalism good?
It’s not that it’s good, it’s just that fighting it will make us all poorer. Nation states are becomingly increasingly irrelevant due to technology and social change. It’s happening regardless, may as well make the best of it.
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told.
I do not think we need to be told - it is very obvious the no dealers are in a large minority
The brutal reality is that unless they have 20 million signatures, neither petition is going to change anything. We know that revoking could probably happen without riots, as not enough no dealers are of the rioting type. The harm is to the democratic process, which becomes a farce. There was already widespread apathy and cynicism before the referendum, with the concern being that all politicians were the same and nothing ever changed. If you can't vote for change, what is the point of even having a vote? And if your life keeps getting worse, to the point where life feels like an impossible struggle, how do you change anything? Does one simply give up on the pursuit of justice or does one try to resolve the situation some other way? That is the problem, as I see it.
Is Swiss democracy a farce because they ignored the result of their ‘anti immigration’ referendum?
I don't think that Trump has a disruptive domestic agenda at all. The vast majority of what he's done is very mainstream among the GOP (not just voters, but politicians). The difference between him and the average Senator or House member with an R next to their name is almost entirely about style, and who their friends are, rather than policy substance.
The EU said last week in the event of No Deal there would be no mini/sectoral deals.
Pretty bold by them considering we hold all the cards.
The EU have already announced their plans to cover flights, freight transport and various other issues in the event of a no deal. These were announced and officially adopted by the Commission last autumn. So unless they have explicitly reversed those decisions then the Guardian is writing Bullshit.
Those aren't deals Richard they are edicts that we will follow.
They cover exactly the things the Guardian article said were at risk of failing. Moreover they are not edicts as they are not telling the UK what to do. They are the EU mitigating the effects of a No Deal for its own benefit.
You will believe any rubbish as long as it is designed to undermine Brexit.
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
I am from the Remain side of the argument. I think leaving the EU is an act of monumental stupidity. In fact I can think of only one thing in our recent history to match it in the stupidity stakes and that was the decision to allow the people to choose it in a referendum.
Nevertheless I agree with you. It was a clear win for Leave and it is now up to the politicians to make the best of it. If they can't agree to leave in an orderly fashion, and they are not prepared to leave in a disorderly fashion, then they should take it on the chin and cancel.
I said last night: it needs a Fairy Godmother to appear, Revoke and vanish again. A meteor hitting the Palace of Westminster when no-one's there and burning the HoC chamber to the ground is the best we could hope for, and the odds are vanishingly small.
Although after last nights thunderclap over Westminster i have an image of a bloke with a beard sitting on a cloud and saying “dang, missed”
Surely the answer for both parties is that they agree to allow a free vote in the House on a PV.
Then ignore the result as they have the referendum ?
The referendum hasn't been ignored, but has been pursued beyond all reason. Hence the mess we are in.
It has been pursued by those lacking reason. Hence the mess we are in.
To be fair, the referendum was so vague that it spawned a number of factions that can't decide what 'Leave' meant. If it had been defined Remain would have been by far the largest faction at 48%.
In fairness, Remainers were not all of one mind.
I hesitated before voting, because I was unhappy about the direction of travel of the EU in many respects. In the end I decided it was better to try and treat the dog's fleas rather than shoot the dog, but it was a close call and I'm sure many Remainers had similar doubts about various issues.
I’m not far off reaching the same conclusion to be honest.
I was so against a referendum until a few weeks ago, but now I just think it's the best way to grind the diehards on both sides down: at the end of yet another referendum, most on the losing side will finally give up fighting, and then the rest of us can move on with our lives.
If we did revoke A50, it would not be back to pre-referendum times in the sense that the UK's view of the EU has been very publicly shown to be not wholly positive to put it mildly.
Would this fact act as any kind of brake at all on ever closer union in the years ahead? A number of people i know who voted Leave did so not because the situation with the UK/EU relationship was inherently objectionable but that it seemed the only way to avoid a future where the UK would be dragged in to the EU project much further than they were comfortable with. I.e. Remain was not a vote for the status quo but risked being seen a green light to "More Europe"
I.e. is it possible that a referendum which ended up with technically no change might still therefore have some effect on slowing integration?
No it'll be full steam ahead for full integration.
The same "pressure" that's been used to subvert the referendum will be used to get us into the Euro within a decade.
Good. Can’t fight globalism.
Why is globalism good?
It’s not that it’s good, it’s just that fighting it will make us all poorer. Nation states are becomingly increasingly irrelevant due to technology and social change. It’s happening regardless, may as well make the best of it.
I see we've drifted off topic to that minor subject of Brexit. If we are going off topic, can we at least discuss the vitally important by-election in Newport West today?
(In any other time, the by-election would be the only thing discussed today - but this is not any other time anymore)
I’m about twenty miles away. Weather is cold and wet.
Not good for turnout then. Probably. Low turnout surely increases the possibility of surprises, given the general situation.
If we did revoke A50, it would not be back to pre-referendum times in the sense that the UK's view of the EU has been very publicly shown to be not wholly positive to put it mildly.
Would this fact act as any kind of brake at all on ever closer union in the years ahead? A number of people i know who voted Leave did so not because the situation with the UK/EU relationship was inherently objectionable but that it seemed the only way to avoid a future where the UK would be dragged in to the EU project much further than they were comfortable with. I.e. Remain was not a vote for the status quo but risked being seen a green light to "More Europe"
I.e. is it possible that a referendum which ended up with technically no change might still therefore have some effect on slowing integration?
No it'll be full steam ahead for full integration.
The same "pressure" that's been used to subvert the referendum will be used to get us into the Euro within a decade.
Good. Can’t fight globalism.
Why is globalism good?
It’s not that it’s good, it’s just that fighting it will make us all poorer. Nation states are becomingly increasingly irrelevant due to technology and social change. It’s happening regardless, may as well make the best of it.
Liberal democratic societies are being weakened by technology and social change, as they usurp institutions and conventions. But by no means is this the case for all nation states.
I see we've drifted off topic to that minor subject of Brexit. If we are going off topic, can we at least discuss the vitally important by-election in Newport West today?
(In any other time, the by-election would be the only thing discussed today - but this is not any other time anymore)
I’m about twenty miles away. Weather is cold and wet.
Not good for turnout then. Probably. Low turnout surely increases the possibility of surprises, given the general situation.
I think second place is where the interest lies. Labour should hold very easily
I'd rather MPs just revoked than put us through a second referendum. If they can't implement the first one that gave them an answer they didn't want don't ask me again. just do it.
snip.
The ideal vote on monday should be TM deal v revoke
The problem here is that a lot of people want no deal. It seems to be something close to 50%. However much they are warned, they persist in believing it is the right thing to do. It is what they have been promised again and again, mostly by the conservative party. It seems to me that revoking would do unthinkable harm not just to the politicians and the conservative party, but also the entire system of representative democracy, and the labour party if they vote for it. A better option (but by no means perfect) is to simply admit that the deal cannot work, and propose an extension and second referendum, but unless no deal is an option in such a referendum, the sense of betrayal will prevail.
If so, one wonders why there are 10x more petition signatures for cancelling it
Revoke 6,000,000 No Deal 600,000
Are lots of ultra-leave voters unable to sign a petition due to not having a PC? Or are there fewer people than we're told who are really committed to economic chaos? I think that we should be told the details.
The Readers' Digest Presidential election survey of 1936, gives you the answer.
The Literary Digest, to be pedantic.
Plus I think you are wrong; we are all computer literate these days. That said, I think there is are two simple reasons for the discrepancy, one being that No deal leave is a subset of leave, and the other that you don't have to ask for what you have already (at least on paper) got.
Even if people are more IT literate it is more likely that that younger you are the more likely you will be IT literate and support Remain/revoke. The other thing is trust levels in using this sort of system. My in laws are both around 70 and computer literate, both remainers, but try not to buy anyth8ng online as they don’t trust online transactions. Mother in law recently went on Facebook but doesn’t use it.
Our local (Stockton) Borough Council nominations are interesting. Its an all-out election. The Tories have carried on their strong local tradition of deselecting sitting councillors by ousting two long serving distinguished members, one of whom was the mayor a year ago.
In my own ward myself, my wife and our running mate are the first three names on the ballot.
On our local parish councils most appear now to be uncontested - the minority group chosing not to run again in Yarm (Independents, vs a majority rival group of independents both of whom are ex Tories) and Thornaby (Labour, myself included, vs Independents who are ex Labour).
(OT, but of definite appeal to Cyclefree) A tremendous article on the US college admissions scandal:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/what-college-admissions-scandal-reveals/586468/ But the Dealmaker of the Year spent considerable time kicking the tires on this one. “Keep in mind I am a lawyer,” Caplan said at one point, according to the affidavit. “So I’m sort of rules oriented.” And, later, “I’m not worried about the moral issue here. I’m worried about the, if she’s caught doing that, you know, she’s finished.”
Much of the discussion of this scandal has centered on the corruption in the college-admissions process. But think about the kinds of jobs that the indicted parents held. Four of them worked in private equity, a fifth in the field of “investments,” others in real-estate development and the most senior management of huge corporations. Together, they have handled billions of dollars’ worth of assets within heavily regulated fields—yet look how easily and how eagerly they allegedly embrace a crooked scheme, as quoted in the court documents...
The EU said last week in the event of No Deal there would be no mini/sectoral deals.
Pretty bold by them considering we hold all the cards.
The EU have already announced their plans to cover flights, freight transport and various other issues in the event of a no deal. These were announced and officially adopted by the Commission last autumn. So unless they have explicitly reversed those decisions then the Guardian is writing Bullshit.
If Theresa May agrees to a second referendum she will have successfully destroyed the Conservative Party. It will simply implode. I don't know if Philip Hammond was authorised by May to suggest second referendum, but would not surprise me if he was. FWIW According to Guido a government source has told him nothing is off the table except revoke.
The sense of utter betrayal this will create in the country will divide this nation forevermore, and resentment for the EU will grow and grow
And if we Remain, either because we revoke or because Brexit is in name only, then a large chunk of this country will lay every one of our country's ills at the failure of politicians to deliver a "proppa Brexit".....
I am not keen on another referendum for various reasons, but why are Leave supporters so terrified of one? Surely, they have the support of the will-o-the-people, and that is an absolute?
Because it has been promoted by people who wish to overturn the result
Their transparent desire to find an excuse to ignore the democratically expressed will of a majority of voters is why it is opposed
And the fact that there is every reason to believe a new vote will give a different result is not part of the reason so many leavers oppose it?
I see we've drifted off topic to that minor subject of Brexit. If we are going off topic, can we at least discuss the vitally important by-election in Newport West today?
(In any other time, the by-election would be the only thing discussed today - but this is not any other time anymore)
I’m about twenty miles away. Weather is cold and wet.
Not good for turnout then. Probably. Low turnout surely increases the possibility of surprises, given the general situation.
Yes, I wish it was a warm and sunny day. Instead I woke up to 8 cm of snow. Historically not good for the Labour vote.
But instead the odds are still shortening, now down to ~1.07.
Few MPs really want an election. Things are so unpredictable, many cannot be sure that their career will not be prematurely terminated. But I think it's coming anyway, probably following on from May's departure and the election of a new Tory leader who will struggle to command a majority.
It must be coming, once the Tories have a new leader. This parliament is dysfunctional and only getting more so.
The big question for me is does it come before or after we leave the EU. This is of the utmost importance. If it's before I see Labour offering REF2 and winning. If after, I see the Tories winning.
So, Corbyn as PM and we remain in the EU? Or we leave and get another Tory government?
It won't pass because it is foolish and dumb. A referendum that doesn't resolve things isn't going to be agreed, period. And a referedum that unites hard Brexiters and hard remainers - the two most motivated groups - in campaigning against a government deal would be an obvious disaster waiting to happen.
But the same point applies to DEAL v REMAIN. Those same 2 most motivated groups would be united in campaigning against the Deal.
A Deal v Remain referendum would force Brexiteers to confront the essential question of whether they truly want to leave in practice, in a world in which the EU continues to exist.
Some will campaign for the deal. Some will say Brexit is pointless and we might as well stay. Some may duck the question and try to discredit the vote.
Whatever happens, we will get a clear and legitimate result that we can implement without further delay.
Complete nonsense.
It is in no way fair to have Remain vs a version of Leave that a whole tranche of Leavers think is terrible. Such a referendum would give an enormous advantage to Remain
Comments
I should add that there are droves of rural Conservatives who are only facing independents or Greens.
On the one hand the UK would find it a lot harder to win support from other EU countries for its position because we have caused so much disruption for the last three years. This might make it easier for further integration to take place, or at least that it takes place in a way contrary to the UK governments perception of the national interest.
On the other hand, UK Prime Minister's would be nervous about the reaction of the Leave 52% and so might be more willing to use the veto to hold up further integration, where a veto still exists.
On topic the acuity of @Cyclefree's post is illustrated by the exchange between @ydoethur and @TheJezziah.
A feature of Trump is that his form of defence is attack. While making out that he is the sole purveyor of truth and those attacking him are guilty of any number of sins in a textbook exercise in diversion. In addition it is only a tight cabal that is "on our side" while the rest are enemies. Or in Corbyn's case, class enemies.
And so we have a discussion on manifesto costings leading to the observation that if not actively an anti-semitic areshole, Corbyn has transparently evidently engendered a culture in the Labour Party whereby it is ok to be an anti-semitic arsehole, which I think legitimately allows it to be said that Jeremy Corbyn is indeed thereby an anti-semitic arsehole.
@ydoethur pointed this out.
@TheJezziah then launched a full scale but what about the Tories, what about you, diversion and dissembling ad hominem exercise. Which was positively Trumpian in its form and content. And this to a former Labour voter, not an avowed dyed-in-the-wool right winger, illustrating the you're either one of us or one of them Trump cult MO.
If public support really is this low, parliament should agree to a 3-way referendum with a run-off.
I'm also totally amazed, amazed, that the American media, from high to low, fell for it yet again.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113710034842730496?s=20
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113754125320294400?s=20
By contrast, Hampshire County Council seems to be a jobs creation scheme for friends of Roy Perry, who’s bestrode it like an emperor for years.
It means nothing and anyone suggesting otherwise hasn’t thought it through.
He also funded his office for some time from his winnings as a result of his election (He was about 33-1 when the campaign started. IIRC)
Perfidious Albion, or French inferiority complex?
But Trump being such a horrible individual, and given that his politics are all about him, the personalized framing of the comparison "The British Trump" is off the mark.
I see we've drifted off topic to that minor subject of Brexit.
If we are going off topic, can we at least discuss the vitally important by-election in Newport West today?
(In any other time, the by-election would be the only thing discussed today - but this is not any other time anymore)
That said, the most likely way I see REF2 happening is via a crisis GE with Labour running on that commitment and winning. In which case I imagine the REF would be Remain vs Labour's renegotiated deal (BINO).
The same "pressure" that's been used to subvert the referendum will be used to get us into the Euro within a decade.
Where has that got us, Letwin, Cooper?
Change the default from No Deal to Revoke. One more chance to pass the WA, if no it's game over.
Such a pity that having the name SNP on it ruled it out.
There's a school of thought that says that parliament will have to vote for a practical way forward to avoid abruptly exiting the EU horizontally through the saloon bar doors.
I think this probably isn't right: It's better if parliament strings out the negotiations, so TMay can say "we're having negotiations and need time to complete them", rather than "we tried everything and nothing works, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯"
I do wonder if Brexit is like Canute standing in the surf at Bosham - but without the self-awareness.
Plus I think you are wrong; we are all computer literate these days. That said, I think there is are two simple reasons for the discrepancy, one being that No deal leave is a subset of leave, and the other that you don't have to ask for what you have already (at least on paper) got.
https://www.change.org/p/normanton-pontefract-and-castleford-labour-party-deselect-mp-yvette-cooper-from-our-constituency
https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1NX2WT
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/what-college-admissions-scandal-reveals/586468/
But the Dealmaker of the Year spent considerable time kicking the tires on this one. “Keep in mind I am a lawyer,” Caplan said at one point, according to the affidavit. “So I’m sort of rules oriented.” And, later, “I’m not worried about the moral issue here. I’m worried about the, if she’s caught doing that, you know, she’s finished.”
Much of the discussion of this scandal has centered on the corruption in the college-admissions process. But think about the kinds of jobs that the indicted parents held. Four of them worked in private equity, a fifth in the field of “investments,” others in real-estate development and the most senior management of huge corporations. Together, they have handled billions of dollars’ worth of assets within heavily regulated fields—yet look how easily and how eagerly they allegedly embrace a crooked scheme, as quoted in the court documents...
You will believe any rubbish as long as it is designed to undermine Brexit.
I hesitated before voting, because I was unhappy about the direction of travel of the EU in many respects. In the end I decided it was better to try and treat the dog's fleas rather than shoot the dog, but it was a close call and I'm sure many Remainers had similar doubts about various issues.
In my own ward myself, my wife and our running mate are the first three names on the ballot.
On our local parish councils most appear now to be uncontested - the minority group chosing not to run again in Yarm (Independents, vs a majority rival group of independents both of whom are ex Tories) and Thornaby (Labour, myself included, vs Independents who are ex Labour).
Open skies is different because it’s normally done on a stand-alone basis
But instead the odds are still shortening, now down to ~1.07.
https://twitter.com/munsterexpress/status/1113398563604783104
The big question for me is does it come before or after we leave the EU. This is of the utmost importance. If it's before I see Labour offering REF2 and winning. If after, I see the Tories winning.
So, Corbyn as PM and we remain in the EU? Or we leave and get another Tory government?
That is a MASSIVE fork in the road.
It is in no way fair to have Remain vs a version of Leave that a whole tranche of Leavers think is terrible. Such a referendum would give an enormous advantage to Remain