Assuming CU gets through, the WA goes through right? Potentially still out by May 22 and May resigns and a new Tory leader is elected.
What's to stop the new Tory leader saying "actually we won't form a CU afterall" and discarding that part of the political declaration?
Once we're out the EU the Tories can change leader then go to the country. When we're out the landscape changes, the CU needs to be well agreed with the EU - it's an aspiration within the overall agreement. It is MUCH more Brexit friendly than something like Kyle-Wilson would be.
Yes, this parliament can't bind the next one...
Although the EU would be party to the (presumably amended) PD too.
Let’s assumes the CU “wins” tonight? Is it really possible the government should implement a policy of profound economic and legal import that it actually disagrees with?
I can imagine very few Tories voting for the CU.
It would be a lot like the Maastricht rebels backing the Labour amendment to adopt the social chapter to derail the whole thing.
Assuming CU gets through, the WA goes through right? Potentially still out by May 22 and May resigns and a new Tory leader is elected.
What's to stop the new Tory leader saying "actually we won't form a CU afterall" and discarding that part of the political declaration?
Once we're out the EU the Tories can change leader then go to the country. When we're out the landscape changes, the CU needs to be well agreed with the EU - it's an aspiration within the overall agreement. It is MUCH more Brexit friendly than something like Kyle-Wilson would be.
Yes, this parliament can't bind the next one...
Although the EU would be party to the (presumably amended) PD too.
Will they want payment for membership of the CU ? We've not agreed to that yet.
Let’s assumes the CU “wins” tonight? Is it really possible the government should implement a policy of profound economic and legal import that it actually disagrees with?
I can imagine very few Tories voting for the CU.
Procedurally the key point is that it needs a long extension with time for further rethinking and might still end up subject to a confirmatory referendum with the status quo on the other side.
If the government ignores the outcome we are into constitutional crisis, particularly if they get their MV3 vote on Friday and it falls again.
I reckon Ken Clarke might have saved Brexit this evening...
His amendment is one of the few ones that doesn't involve unicorns - the only other ones are "Leave without a Deal" and "Revoke if No Deal happening".
The Customs Union part will have a 2 year period before it is implemented as a permanent arrangement. Obviously we know nothing much can change in two years...
In a customs union will we get access to the 43 existing EU trade deals or is that only in the customs union
No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
They voted against a crap deal not Brexit.
I could easily have found good reasons to vote against AV, like some PR supporters actually did. But I recognised that a step on the road was better than none. Sadly it made no difference, but the ERG are like those PR supporters on the wrong side of the AV referendum.
Yes, I was one of those. And I'm coming up to 8 years of being told that I voted to support first past the post. Still hurts. Good analogy.
No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
I'm not sure that's true - some Tories on both sides of the argument have always held entrenched positions and I doubt they would have come on board with any withdrawal deal (I'm thinking of people like Mark Francois, Andrea Jenkyns, the TIG defectors).
I think history will judge that Brexit was lost on 8 June 2017. The parliament elected on that date was never likely to have been able to carry through such a controversial and difficult process bearing in mind the closeness of the referendum result, the complete lack of a plan to leave, the drift of public opinion toward remain and the fact that most MPs think the whole idea of leaving is bonkers. Add that to the united and uncompromising stance of the EU 27 and the odds have always been against a satisfactory way out being found.
Now we are looking at a long extension which will end either in continued membership or a form of BINO which will be very close to membership.
No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
They voted against a crap deal not Brexit.
But the ballot paper did not say anything about 'crap deal' and whether it was ok or not. So if you voted Leave, you were voting for any form of Leave - from BRINO to NO Deal and all stops in between.
Of course. So one of them should happen and then we should hold Parliament to account to how happy we are with what they've come up with.
Well, those that voted Leave can hardly complain about what sort of leave they get, even those who has since come to believe it wasn't a very smart choice.
Assuming CU gets through, the WA goes through right? Potentially still out by May 22 and May resigns and a new Tory leader is elected.
What's to stop the new Tory leader saying "actually we won't form a CU afterall" and discarding that part of the political declaration?
Once we're out the EU the Tories can change leader then go to the country. When we're out the landscape changes, the CU needs to be well agreed with the EU - it's an aspiration within the overall agreement. It is MUCH more Brexit friendly than something like Kyle-Wilson would be.
Yes, this parliament can't bind the next one...
Although the EU would be party to the (presumably amended) PD too.
But the EU have made a big song and dance about the PD not being legally binding.
No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
They voted against a crap deal not Brexit.
But the ballot paper did not say anything about 'crap deal' and whether it was ok or not. So if you voted Leave, you were voting for any form of Leave - from BRINO to NO Deal and all stops in between.
Of course. So one of them should happen and then we should hold Parliament to account to how happy we are with what they've come up with.
Well, those that voted Leave can hardly complain about what sort of leave they get, even those who has since come to believe it wasn't a very smart choice.
Of course they can complain! That's a right every Englishman and woman has. People who don't vote have no reason to complain but those who do should.
They should follow through with their complaints if need be by voting accordingly at the next election. Call it taking back control.
Assuming CU gets through, the WA goes through right? Potentially still out by May 22 and May resigns and a new Tory leader is elected.
What's to stop the new Tory leader saying "actually we won't form a CU afterall" and discarding that part of the political declaration?
Once we're out the EU the Tories can change leader then go to the country. When we're out the landscape changes, the CU needs to be well agreed with the EU - it's an aspiration within the overall agreement. It is MUCH more Brexit friendly than something like Kyle-Wilson would be.
Yes, this parliament can't bind the next one...
Although the EU would be party to the (presumably amended) PD too.
But the EU have made a big song and dance about the PD not being legally binding.
Fair point.
So glad Cameron decided to put this Europe issue to bed for once and all!
I reckon Ken Clarke might have saved Brexit this evening...
His amendment is one of the few ones that doesn't involve unicorns - the only other ones are "Leave without a Deal" and "Revoke if No Deal happening".
The Customs Union part will have a 2 year period before it is implemented as a permanent arrangement. Obviously we know nothing much can change in two years...
In a customs union will we get access to the 43 existing EU trade deals or is that only in the customs union
That is only 'The' CU. Turkey does not have access to any of the EU's trade deals. However those countries that do have trade deals with the CU have tariff free access to Turkey's markets. It is a one way street.
No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
They voted against a crap deal not Brexit.
But the ballot paper did not say anything about 'crap deal' and whether it was ok or not. So if you voted Leave, you were voting for any form of Leave - from BRINO to NO Deal and all stops in between.
Of course. So one of them should happen and then we should hold Parliament to account to how happy we are with what they've come up with.
Well, those that voted Leave can hardly complain about what sort of leave they get, even those who has since come to believe it wasn't a very smart choice.
Of course they can complain! That's a right every Englishman and woman has. People who don't vote have no reason to complain but those who do should.
They should follow through with their complaints if need be by voting accordingly at the next election. Call it taking back control.
Lol! And what about the poor sods who voted Remain? We lost, so we don't count. Just ignore is now, yes?
No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
I'm not sure that's true - some Tories on both sides of the argument have always held entrenched positions and I doubt they would have come on board with any withdrawal deal (I'm thinking of people like Mark Francois, Andrea Jenkyns, the TIG defectors).
I think history will judge that Brexit was lost on 8 June 2017. The parliament elected on that date was never likely to have been able to carry through such a controversial and difficult process bearing in mind the closeness of the referendum result, the complete lack of a plan to leave, the drift of public opinion toward remain and the fact that most MPs think the whole idea of leaving is bonkers. Add that to the united and uncompromising stance of the EU 27 and the odds have always been against a satisfactory way out being found.
Now we are looking at a long extension which will end either in continued membership or a form of BINO which will be very close to membership.
But my premise "if..." was that the ERG actually voted for Brexit. So your first para is off topic.
Who is to say that a small Tory majority wouldn't have delivered into parliament even more nutty Tories determined to chuck away the bird in hand?
Comments
If the government ignores the outcome we are into constitutional crisis, particularly if they get their MV3 vote on Friday and it falls again.
You know they will. They won't be able to resist.
Yes, I was one of those. And I'm coming up to 8 years of being told that I voted to support first past the post. Still hurts. Good analogy.
(Also did the Malthouse B really serve a sequel?)
I think history will judge that Brexit was lost on 8 June 2017. The parliament elected on that date was never likely to have been able to carry through such a controversial and difficult process bearing in mind the closeness of the referendum result, the complete lack of a plan to leave, the drift of public opinion toward remain and the fact that most MPs think the whole idea of leaving is bonkers. Add that to the united and uncompromising stance of the EU 27 and the odds have always been against a satisfactory way out being found.
Now we are looking at a long extension which will end either in continued membership or a form of BINO which will be very close to membership.
They should follow through with their complaints if need be by voting accordingly at the next election. Call it taking back control.
So glad Cameron decided to put this Europe issue to bed for once and all!
Who is to say that a small Tory majority wouldn't have delivered into parliament even more nutty Tories determined to chuck away the bird in hand?
He showed he could get us out of Europe within days of the referendum.
https://twitter.com/dexeugov/status/1110942385775755264?s=21
This thread is now addressing the '22
NEW THREAD
I agree though - there is really only one choice - Remain, or Leave (with or without a FTA). The stuff in the middle is pointless.