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  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    IanB2 said:

    Labour is going to have a go at whipping.

    Thus rendering the process nul and void - it should have been a free vote for everyone

    (and ministers should have been free to vote as well)
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    I think he's going to get Bercowed.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    LOL

    BMW in discussions to buy Honda Swindon plant and boost production


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/27/bmw-eyes-hondas-swindon-plant-boost-uk-production/

    I guess they may be betting on a soft Brexit if it is true, but as it is reported in the Daily Ukipograph it is probably complete bollox
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    IanB2 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm surprised that the one thing no-one has put a motion down for is to "support the Prime Minister's Deal" The one thing that MPs won't be able to compare to. The options picked do seem to favour the Brexit fans - that Malthouse B one in particular. But let's se how popular it really is.

    Government decided to turn its back on the whole process rather than put its deal into the mix. Could be a historic mistake.
    What is the point of putting it in if Bercow refuses to allow it?
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited March 2019
    Buzzfeed report 60 Tory MPs are still opposed to the deal so Bercow's posturing more for show than dough. Will that change tonight?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    Labour is going to have a go at whipping.

    Thus rendering the process nul and void - it should have been a free vote for everyone

    (and ministers should have been free to vote as well)
    I agree. Although given Labour is supporting a range of options (see my updated post below), the only significant rebellion is likely to be the Labour remainers supporting the Revoke rather than no deal option.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    LOL

    BMW in discussions to buy Honda Swindon plant and boost production


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/27/bmw-eyes-hondas-swindon-plant-boost-uk-production/

    I guess they may be betting on a soft Brexit if it is true, but as it is reported in the Daily Ukipograph it is probably complete bollox
    The Telegraph nicked it from Autocar who reported it first
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Norm said:

    Buzzfeed report 60 Tory MPs are still opposed to the deal so Bercow's posturing more for show than dough

    Or he is saving the government from itself; clinging to a doomed MV3 is psychological displacement to avoid facing having lost control of events.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Ken Clarke is very wise...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm surprised that the one thing no-one has put a motion down for is to "support the Prime Minister's Deal" The one thing that MPs won't be able to compare to. The options picked do seem to favour the Brexit fans - that Malthouse B one in particular. But let's se how popular it really is.

    Government decided to turn its back on the whole process rather than put its deal into the mix. Could be a historic mistake.
    What is the point of putting it in if Bercow refuses to allow it?
    If May's deal had been put as an indicative option I am sure it would have been selected. All the media assumed so. The rules on disallowal of repeat proposals don't apply to this process.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't see why Theresa May giving a date when she will stand down as PM is going to solve anything.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    President Bercow.

    Who'd have thunk it!

    Better than either PM May or PM Corbyn methinks!
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    AndyJS said:

    I don't see why Theresa May giving a date when she will stand down as PM is going to solve anything.

    Basically gives the likes of Boris the ladder to climb down, but yes, broadly agree with what you say.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    President Bercow.

    Who'd have thunk it!

    He is probably a lot more popular than Mrs May's deal (not difficult), and while severely loathed by right wing Tories (which may be a reason to like him), he has considerably more cross party support (also not difficult). Perhaps it is time to strengthen his role. Bercow to handle talks with EU! He certainly couldn't do a worse job than Theresa May, and I would expect him to do considerably better than Mr. Thicky.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Ken Clarke is very wise...

    By saying he will support all the options he would find acceptable, certainly so. That is what all MPs should be doing, to avoid the embarrassment of every option going down heavily. As he is saying himself as I type this.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm surprised that the one thing no-one has put a motion down for is to "support the Prime Minister's Deal" The one thing that MPs won't be able to compare to. The options picked do seem to favour the Brexit fans - that Malthouse B one in particular. But let's se how popular it really is.

    Government decided to turn its back on the whole process rather than put its deal into the mix. Could be a historic mistake.
    What is the point of putting it in if Bercow refuses to allow it?
    If May's deal had been put as an indicative option I am sure it would have been selected. All the media assumed so. The rules on disallowal of repeat proposals don't apply to this process.
    Rules have nothing to do with it. Bercow just does what he wants to.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    The poison dwarf draws the spotlight onto himself again.

    I guess this is what happens when you have a cuckold with a Napoleon complex as Speaker.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    LOL

    BMW in discussions to buy Honda Swindon plant and boost production


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/27/bmw-eyes-hondas-swindon-plant-boost-uk-production/

    I guess they may be betting on a soft Brexit if it is true, but as it is reported in the Daily Ukipograph it is probably complete bollox
    The Autocar article has more detail. They have a platform they call UKL. This is used for the Mini, 1 and 2 series and X1, X2. Mini was originally developed in the UK and Autocar say a lot of the supply chain is in the UK. They sell 687K UKL platforms a year of which 250K are Minis made in Oxford (which is flat out at the moment). The others are made in Holland by a sub contractor. So the business logic is move production to the UK and consolidate supply chains.

    Also remember that the main sales markets for Minis by volume are USA, China, UK, Italy, France.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Ladbrokes odds for the most supported option:

    CM2 - 6/4
    CU - 5/2
    Lab - 4/1
    EEA - 6/1
    PV - 12/1
    Pref arrgts - 20/1
    Revoke - 33/1
    No deal - 100/1
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Isn't the SNP creating a massive bear trap here?? if they force the Govt to revoke if no deal has been formed, then they will force no-deal to be made full stop if they can.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Note in all these cases they are talking about 'A' Customs Union not 'The' Customs Union. Basically the Turkish situation. It really is a recipe for disaster.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm surprised that the one thing no-one has put a motion down for is to "support the Prime Minister's Deal" The one thing that MPs won't be able to compare to. The options picked do seem to favour the Brexit fans - that Malthouse B one in particular. But let's se how popular it really is.

    Government decided to turn its back on the whole process rather than put its deal into the mix. Could be a historic mistake.
    What is the point of putting it in if Bercow refuses to allow it?
    If May's deal had been put as an indicative option I am sure it would have been selected. All the media assumed so. The rules on disallowal of repeat proposals don't apply to this process.
    Rules have nothing to do with it. Bercow just does what he wants to.
    Don't be silly. He enjoys putting his interpretation on them, as is his job, but rules and precedents they are. It is the governments fault, and Mrs May in particular, that they have not foreseen the procedural difficulties and anticipated the likely pedantry of Mr. Speaker.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Doesn’t a permanent CU prevent us from striking trade deals with other countries but allows them access to our markets on EU tariffs. A lose lose option?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Is there any point in this debate?

    Couldn't they have just moved to the vote - given how many hours have been given over to allowing them all the opportunity to trot out their positions over and over?

    Just vote and get on with it. We have had enough talking.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    "The public haven't changed their minds on Brexit, but Remain would win a second vote
    John Curtice"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/27/public-havent-changed-minds-brexit-remain-would-win-second-vote/
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm surprised that the one thing no-one has put a motion down for is to "support the Prime Minister's Deal" The one thing that MPs won't be able to compare to. The options picked do seem to favour the Brexit fans - that Malthouse B one in particular. But let's se how popular it really is.

    Government decided to turn its back on the whole process rather than put its deal into the mix. Could be a historic mistake.
    What is the point of putting it in if Bercow refuses to allow it?
    If May's deal had been put as an indicative option I am sure it would have been selected. All the media assumed so. The rules on disallowal of repeat proposals don't apply to this process.
    Rules have nothing to do with it. Bercow just does what he wants to.
    Don't be silly. He enjoys putting his interpretation on them, as is his job, but rules and precedents they are. It is the governments fault, and Mrs May in particular, that they have not foreseen the procedural difficulties and anticipated the likely pedantry of Mr. Speaker.
    Bollocks. Bercow cites rules and precedents when it suits him and ignores them when not.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    kjohnw said:

    Doesn’t a permanent CU prevent us from striking trade deals with other countries but allows them access to our markets on EU tariffs. A lose lose option?
    Yep. It is so bad that the Turks were willing to pull out of their Customs Union with the EU had the US trade deal been approved. It would have given the US tariff free access to the Turkish markets with no reciprocal rights.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    LOL

    BMW in discussions to buy Honda Swindon plant and boost production


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/27/bmw-eyes-hondas-swindon-plant-boost-uk-production/

    I guess they may be betting on a soft Brexit if it is true, but as it is reported in the Daily Ukipograph it is probably complete bollox
    The Autocar article has more detail. They have a platform they call UKL. This is used for the Mini, 1 and 2 series and X1, X2. Mini was originally developed in the UK and Autocar say a lot of the supply chain is in the UK. They sell 687K UKL platforms a year of which 250K are Minis made in Oxford (which is flat out at the moment). The others are made in Holland by a sub contractor. So the business logic is move production to the UK and consolidate supply chains.

    Also remember that the main sales markets for Minis by volume are USA, China, UK, Italy, France.
    Which is more or less what those of us who have worked in the car industry have been saying for ages.

    The article doesnt state that BMWs Cowley facility is landlocked and cant expand, it has been one of the major downsides to manufacturing there. A move to Swindon which is right beside BMWs Press plant makes a lot of sense
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    IanB2 said:

    Ladbrokes odds for the most supported option:

    CM2 - 6/4
    CU - 5/2
    Lab - 4/1
    EEA - 6/1
    PV - 12/1
    Pref arrgts - 20/1
    Revoke - 33/1
    No deal - 100/1

    Lay CM2 because it = FOM
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    kjohnw said:

    Doesn’t a permanent CU prevent us from striking trade deals with other countries but allows them access to our markets on EU tariffs. A lose lose option?
    Not when Fox is supposed to be negotiating the trade deals.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    Isn't the SNP creating a massive bear trap here?? if they force the Govt to revoke if no deal has been formed, then they will force no-deal to be made full stop if they can.

    I suppose that's one way of looking at it, the other is that all they're really doing is ensuring a proper mechanism for something the house has already voted for a few times, which is to avoid no deal if everything else has failed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    IanB2 said:

    Ladbrokes odds for the most supported option:

    CM2 - 6/4
    CU - 5/2
    Lab - 4/1
    EEA - 6/1
    PV - 12/1
    Pref arrgts - 20/1
    Revoke - 33/1
    No deal - 100/1

    Interesting. Do they have odds on which will get a majority?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ladbrokes odds for the most supported option:

    CM2 - 6/4
    CU - 5/2
    Lab - 4/1
    EEA - 6/1
    PV - 12/1
    Pref arrgts - 20/1
    Revoke - 33/1
    No deal - 100/1

    Lay CM2 because it = FOM
    I am backing CU at 5/2
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ladbrokes odds for the most supported option:

    CM2 - 6/4
    CU - 5/2
    Lab - 4/1
    EEA - 6/1
    PV - 12/1
    Pref arrgts - 20/1
    Revoke - 33/1
    No deal - 100/1

    Lay CM2 because it = FOM
    I reckon it'll be close between the top 2 so 5/2 is probably value in a 2 horse race.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    Barclay saying government intends to push MV3 to a Friday sitting.

    Must be banking on today frightening the Brexiters.

    Or they really do have just the one tool in their box.

  • kjohnw said:

    Doesn’t a permanent CU prevent us from striking trade deals with other countries but allows them access to our markets on EU tariffs. A lose lose option?
    Yep. It is so bad that the Turks were willing to pull out of their Customs Union with the EU had the US trade deal been approved. It would have given the US tariff free access to the Turkish markets with no reciprocal rights.
    So why are MPs so keen on it? Just the Irish issue (which has apparently been solved for No Deal anyway)?

    Or because they don't really know what they are voting for?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm surprised that the one thing no-one has put a motion down for is to "support the Prime Minister's Deal" The one thing that MPs won't be able to compare to. The options picked do seem to favour the Brexit fans - that Malthouse B one in particular. But let's se how popular it really is.

    Government decided to turn its back on the whole process rather than put its deal into the mix. Could be a historic mistake.
    What is the point of putting it in if Bercow refuses to allow it?
    If May's deal had been put as an indicative option I am sure it would have been selected. All the media assumed so. The rules on disallowal of repeat proposals don't apply to this process.
    Rules have nothing to do with it. Bercow just does what he wants to.
    Don't be silly. He enjoys putting his interpretation on them, as is his job, but rules and precedents they are. It is the governments fault, and Mrs May in particular, that they have not foreseen the procedural difficulties and anticipated the likely pedantry of Mr. Speaker.
    Bollocks. Bercow cites rules and precedents when it suits him and ignores them when not.
    In your opinion, because, perhaps, you don't like the ones he enacts? If he has ignored ones that are useful to those who like national self-harm, it is up to those that do to make a point of order.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    We don't hear much from Mortimer and his Golden Rule these days.

    Strange!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see why Theresa May giving a date when she will stand down as PM is going to solve anything.

    Basically gives the likes of Boris the ladder to climb down, but yes, broadly agree with what you say.
    It seems like an apples and oranges argument to me. But who knows how Tory MPs think.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm surprised that the one thing no-one has put a motion down for is to "support the Prime Minister's Deal" The one thing that MPs won't be able to compare to. The options picked do seem to favour the Brexit fans - that Malthouse B one in particular. But let's se how popular it really is.

    Government decided to turn its back on the whole process rather than put its deal into the mix. Could be a historic mistake.
    What is the point of putting it in if Bercow refuses to allow it?
    If May's deal had been put as an indicative option I am sure it would have been selected. All the media assumed so. The rules on disallowal of repeat proposals don't apply to this process.
    Rules have nothing to do with it. Bercow just does what he wants to.
    Don't be silly. He enjoys putting his interpretation on them, as is his job, but rules and precedents they are. It is the governments fault, and Mrs May in particular, that they have not foreseen the procedural difficulties and anticipated the likely pedantry of Mr. Speaker.
    Bollocks. Bercow cites rules and precedents when it suits him and ignores them when not.
    In your opinion, because, perhaps, you don't like the ones he enacts? If he has ignored ones that are useful to those who like national self-harm, it is up to those that do to make a point of order.
    You have to be consistent in the application of any rules - and Bercow hasn't been. Betty wouldn't have allowed this situation to arise. Oh for the days of Betty.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm surprised that the one thing no-one has put a motion down for is to "support the Prime Minister's Deal" The one thing that MPs won't be able to compare to. The options picked do seem to favour the Brexit fans - that Malthouse B one in particular. But let's se how popular it really is.

    Government decided to turn its back on the whole process rather than put its deal into the mix. Could be a historic mistake.
    What is the point of putting it in if Bercow refuses to allow it?
    If May's deal had been put as an indicative option I am sure it would have been selected. All the media assumed so. The rules on disallowal of repeat proposals don't apply to this process.
    Rules have nothing to do with it. Bercow just does what he wants to.
    Don't be silly. He enjoys putting his interpretation on them, as is his job, but rules and precedents they are. It is the governments fault, and Mrs May in particular, that they have not foreseen the procedural difficulties and anticipated the likely pedantry of Mr. Speaker.
    One of the minor blunders, lost among the many much larger blunders of May's band of fools masquerading as a government, is that they apparently did not ask Bercow whether he would permit MV3 dsepite the very obvious rule in Erskine May prohibiting it. And they can't claim they had no warning - Chris Bryant had drawn attention to it in the House only a few days before.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    tpfkar said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ladbrokes odds for the most supported option:

    CM2 - 6/4
    CU - 5/2
    Lab - 4/1
    EEA - 6/1
    PV - 12/1
    Pref arrgts - 20/1
    Revoke - 33/1
    No deal - 100/1

    Lay CM2 because it = FOM
    I reckon it'll be close between the top 2 so 5/2 is probably value in a 2 horse race.
    As I said I think CM2 should be much longer odds. But then I am thinking rationally based upon MPs' stated positions. Fool that I am.
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455

    IanB2 said:

    Ladbrokes odds for the most supported option:

    CM2 - 6/4
    CU - 5/2
    Lab - 4/1
    EEA - 6/1
    PV - 12/1
    Pref arrgts - 20/1
    Revoke - 33/1
    No deal - 100/1



    Interesting. Do they have odds on which will get a majority?
    Betfair do but liquidity is currently low.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,252
    Barnesian said:

    I agree with your 2nd paragraph.

    Logic not a strong suit of this environment. Too much PPE not enough Maths.

    That said, probably no harm done because the REF can only become meaningful if it ends up getting attached to a specific Brexit outcome.
  • No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    The dynamics would have changed.

    It would have been framed as Labour are trying to block Brexit/ensure No Deal, so Labour would have either backed the deal or abstained, ensuring the deal passed.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    I think that is a pretty reasonable assessment.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    This is a high quality debate. Positive mood in the House.

    When Mrs May appears, like a ghost at the feast, there will be universal groans. I really think she is finished tonight.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    I think that is a pretty reasonable assessment.
    Apart from my Freudian typo :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    _Anazina_ said:

    We don't hear much from Mortimer and his Golden Rule these days.

    Strange!

    Go on - enlighten we johnny-come-PB-latelys...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    kjohnw said:

    Doesn’t a permanent CU prevent us from striking trade deals with other countries but allows them access to our markets on EU tariffs. A lose lose option?
    Yep. It is so bad that the Turks were willing to pull out of their Customs Union with the EU had the US trade deal been approved. It would have given the US tariff free access to the Turkish markets with no reciprocal rights.
    So why are MPs so keen on it? Just the Irish issue (which has apparently been solved for No Deal anyway)?

    Or because they don't really know what they are voting for?
    I don't know but I suspect a mixture of both.

    Also if by some miracle they did persuade the EU that they could stay in THE Customs Union then that is a different dynamic. Unable to make our own trade deals but part of the EU trade deals so not the same downsides. Just different ones but which are more acceptable to MPs I suspect.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited March 2019

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    The dynamics would have changed.

    It would have been framed as Labour are trying to block Brexit/ensure No Deal, so Labour would have either backed the deal or abstained, ensuring the deal passed.
    Agreed. Plus, the Tory remainers would not have held out on their own.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Assuming CU gets through, the WA goes through right? Potentially still out by May 22 and May resigns and a new Tory leader is elected.

    What's to stop the new Tory leader saying "actually we won't form a CU afterall" and discarding that part of the political declaration?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    The dynamics would have changed.

    It would have been framed as Labour are trying to block Brexit/ensure No Deal, so Labour would have either backed the deal or abstained, ensuring the deal passed.
    Even if Labour hadn't done so formally (and it's highly likely that Corbyn would have found some reason not to support a Tory government), enough Labour MPs in either Leave constituencies or with Leave inclinations would have backed the deal to make the difference.

    They'd also have had the added bonus that it would have ruptured the Con-DUP alliance so badly that they might well have gained a general election out of it with May still leading the Tories.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited March 2019
    Can't believe we seem to be swinging from Leave to BINO to RIABN* (Remain in all but name) due to the ERG.

    *Or sadly RIABN-WI -without influence.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744

    Feels like a risky game for Bercow. As others have said, not entirely sure how it's sticking up for the House v the exec.

    And if his game is to frustrate Brexit, and if the effect of this is to weaken Deal, at the very least he's raising the stakes in avoiding No Deal By Accident.

    You do wonder if he's an extremely deep sleeper from his Monday Club days, like some kind of parliamentary Snape.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    I think that is a pretty reasonable assessment.
    "If the Tory party had untied..." is also a great typo. :smile:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218

    Assuming CU gets through, the WA goes through right? Potentially still out by May 22 and May resigns and a new Tory leader is elected.

    What's to stop the new Tory leader saying "actually we won't form a CU afterall" and discarding that part of the political declaration?

    Once we're out the EU the Tories can change leader then go to the country. When we're out the landscape changes, the CU needs to be well agreed with the EU - it's an aspiration within the overall agreement. It is MUCH more Brexit friendly than something like Kyle-Wilson would be.
  • No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    The dynamics would have changed.

    It would have been framed as Labour are trying to block Brexit/ensure No Deal, so Labour would have either backed the deal or abstained, ensuring the deal passed.
    Even if Labour hadn't done so formally (and it's highly likely that Corbyn would have found some reason not to support a Tory government), enough Labour MPs in either Leave constituencies or with Leave inclinations would have backed the deal to make the difference.

    They'd also have had the added bonus that it would have ruptured the Con-DUP alliance so badly that they might well have gained a general election out of it with May still leading the Tories.
    That's the point I made earlier on this year.

    Labour should have backed the deal as it would have triggered VONC in which the DUP opposed the government, thus giving Corbyn his general election.

    But as I said the other, Parliament is donkeys led by donkeys.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    I reckon Ken Clarke might have saved Brexit this evening...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    I think that is a pretty reasonable assessment.
    "If the Tory party had untied..." is also a great typo. :smile:
    Unhinged may be a more appropriate word
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    The dynamics would have changed.

    It would have been framed as Labour are trying to block Brexit/ensure No Deal, so Labour would have either backed the deal or abstained, ensuring the deal passed.
    Agreed. Plus, the Tory remainers would not have held out on their own.
    Grieve would have done !
  • IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
    A battalion of unicorns coming to rescue them like Gandalf at first light on the fifth day at Helm's Deep.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    If Mrs May's deal is WDA only (i.e. no PD) with a commitment to accept result of Monday's deliberations for the PD, then it would be different, it might get through, and the EU would extend A50 until 22 May, as well as negotiating a new PD.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited March 2019
    Can someone tell me any benefits of a permanent customs union?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    kjohnw said:

    An someone tell me any benefits of a permanent customs union?

    The economy keeps working.
  • IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    I think that is a pretty reasonable assessment.
    "If the Tory party had untied..." is also a great typo. :smile:
    We're into Stephen Milligan territory.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    kjohnw said:

    Can someone tell me any benefits of a permanent customs union?

    Sure, the existing arrangements keep working for us exporters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
    A battalion of unicorns coming to rescue them like Gandalf at first light on the fifth day at Helm's Deep.
    Actually I think they expected to be able to manouevre to a position where the only remaining choices were no deal exit or revoke, and they banked on the House being unwilling to revoke. Baker's leaked Whatsapp post says as much.

    They didn't factor in the combined will of Parliament and the EU to avoid no deal at all cost. Or that public opinion would dribble away from Leave such that they couldn't summon a million (or 400,000 for Casino) people into Parliament square to object to a revocation.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    I think that is a pretty reasonable assessment.
    "If the Tory party had untied..." is also a great typo. :smile:
    We're into Stephen Milligan territory.
    It was bound to happen sooner ot later.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
    They voted against a crap deal not Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    The Brexiteers forgot the A50 date was a law of humanity (And as such could be altered), not some law of physics like gravity.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Pulpstar said:

    I reckon Ken Clarke might have saved Brexit this evening...

    His amendment is one of the few ones that doesn't involve unicorns - the only other ones are "Leave without a Deal" and "Revoke if No Deal happening".
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Pulpstar said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    The dynamics would have changed.

    It would have been framed as Labour are trying to block Brexit/ensure No Deal, so Labour would have either backed the deal or abstained, ensuring the deal passed.
    Agreed. Plus, the Tory remainers would not have held out on their own.
    Grieve would have done !
    There are several who would have done. Grieve and Soubry being two. But not enough t have stopped it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    kjohnw said:

    Can someone tell me any benefits of a permanent customs union?

    Sure, the existing arrangements keep working for us exporters.
    How is that any better than May's Crap Deal?

    The existing arrangements will keep working during the backstop too and the backstop only end if sufficiently suitable new arrangments, good enough to keep an invisible border, are created.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    So basically once we are out a new PM could ditch the customs union and get a mandate through GE
    Pulpstar said:

    Assuming CU gets through, the WA goes through right? Potentially still out by May 22 and May resigns and a new Tory leader is elected.

    What's to stop the new Tory leader saying "actually we won't form a CU afterall" and discarding that part of the political declaration?

    Once we're out the EU the Tories can change leader then go to the country. When we're out the landscape changes, the CU needs to be well agreed with the EU - it's an aspiration within the overall agreement. It is MUCH more Brexit friendly than something like Kyle-Wilson would be.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218

    Pulpstar said:

    I reckon Ken Clarke might have saved Brexit this evening...

    His amendment is one of the few ones that doesn't involve unicorns - the only other ones are "Leave without a Deal" and "Revoke if No Deal happening".
    The Customs Union part will have a 2 year period before it is implemented as a permanent arrangement. Obviously we know nothing much can change in two years...
  • IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
    They voted against a crap deal not Brexit.
    But the ballot paper did not say anything about 'crap deal' and whether it was ok or not. So if you voted Leave, you were voting for any form of Leave - from BRINO to NO Deal and all stops in between.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Been diverted into living a life this afternoon, so catching up - what time do we expect the voting results?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
    They voted against a crap deal not Brexit.
    They're going to end up with No Brexit or The Deal plus a Customs Union - which by their lights is "worse" than the Deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
    They voted against a crap deal not Brexit.
    But the ballot paper did not say anything about 'crap deal' and whether it was ok or not. So if you voted Leave, you were voting for any form of Leave - from BRINO to NO Deal and all stops in between.
    Of course. So one of them should happen and then we should hold Parliament to account to how happy we are with what they've come up with.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Best speeches so far Clarke & Beckett.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Let’s assumes the CU “wins” tonight?
    Is it really possible the government should implement a policy of profound economic and legal import that it actually disagrees with?

    I can imagine very few Tories voting for the CU.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    They should add Gareth Southgate to the poll options - he'd walk it :wink:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    kjohnw said:

    So basically once we are out a new PM could ditch the customs union and get a mandate through GE

    Pulpstar said:

    Assuming CU gets through, the WA goes through right? Potentially still out by May 22 and May resigns and a new Tory leader is elected.

    What's to stop the new Tory leader saying "actually we won't form a CU afterall" and discarding that part of the political declaration?

    Once we're out the EU the Tories can change leader then go to the country. When we're out the landscape changes, the CU needs to be well agreed with the EU - it's an aspiration within the overall agreement. It is MUCH more Brexit friendly than something like Kyle-Wilson would be.
    Yes, this parliament can't bind the next one...
  • Pulpstar said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    The dynamics would have changed.

    It would have been framed as Labour are trying to block Brexit/ensure No Deal, so Labour would have either backed the deal or abstained, ensuring the deal passed.
    Agreed. Plus, the Tory remainers would not have held out on their own.
    Grieve would have done !
    There are several who would have done. Grieve and Soubry being two. But not enough t have stopped it.
    The fact that Ken Clarke was backing the deal would have ensured the overwhelming majority of the Tory awkward squad (Pro-EU wing) backed the deal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
    They voted against a crap deal not Brexit.
    I could easily have found good reasons to vote against AV, like some PR supporters actually did. But I recognised that a step on the road was better than none. Sadly it made no difference, but the ERG are like those PR supporters on the wrong side of the AV referendum.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
    They voted against a crap deal not Brexit.
    They're going to end up with No Brexit or The Deal plus a Customs Union - which by their lights is "worse" than the Deal.
    I'm not seeing a great difference between Deal including Backstop and Deal plus Customs Union.

    We can only leave the backstop if we agree suitable arrangements and we could presumably exit a Customs Union [or even not honour it in the first place] if we agree suitable arrangements too. No real difference, especially since the next PM will do whatever they want anyway.
This discussion has been closed.