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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a CON leadership contest perhaps imminent new Ipsos-MORI
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a CON leadership contest perhaps imminent new Ipsos-MORI poll has good and bad news for Johnson
Above is a chart just issued by Ipsos Mori on its latest polling on which of a number of leading politicians appear “Prime Ministerial”. Theresa May, clearly, gets a home advantage because she is the incumbent but Corbyn will not be happy with his numbers which are the worst of all in those who were polled.
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Like who knows what, later!?
Or even fourth.
Lucky nothing was happening during that time or we'd be in a real mess.....
It took him a bit longer, though...
I think he knows this but he also just can’t help himself.
No deal - with proper preparation - would have worked very well from tomorrow, which is the date we promised the electorate.
However, we are probably going to have to do the best we can with the "deal" and sort the rest of it out. The Commons are likely to stop the whole thing otherwise, and the Government clearly hasn't got the bottle to run down the clock - which it should.
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.
Just thinking some MPs are going to struggle if there are more than 10 questions on their multiple choice paper.
The thought of Dominic Cummings as Number 10 Chief of Staff to PM Gove scares the bejesus out of Tory MPs.
The tricky part is that since it's all the same WA, the PD wouldn't necessarily bind the UK government and the EU if they both wanted something else, and the opposition's leverage potentially disappears as soon as they pass the WA, it's hard to see how MPs can force the government to do something it doesn't want to do. They can vote for whatever arrangement of CU and SM and whatever else floats their boat, but as soon as TMay has got their votes she'll obviously go right back to doing whatever she thinks will produce the friendliest cabinet meetings.
What's the worst that could happen?
Remember that if you're dead you can't sue.
Boris also has fewer people thinking he would make a bad PM than think Corbyn would make a bad PM
Even then, I think Guto Bebb and Mark Francois would struggle.
PM says International Law takes precedence.
Glad I missed this PMQs.
Notably, far fewer are yet to make their minds up about Johnson than about him, so it's not entirely bad news for Gove.
What I accept is that...
"You WILL NOT, repeat NOT, be able to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during an the current agreed extension."
But a longer extension? Who knows... I think the EU would be very willing to re-negotiate if we extended by a year with a committed purpose. (I'm not saying that's going to happen though.)
What Bercow should do is strike off the true unicorns like Malthouse - the EU will not agree to drop the backstop from the current deal.
Maybe the public define 'having what it takes' to be PM as already living at 10 Downing Street.
Surely Private Francois will be called to finish this off?
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47718718
B - No Deal exit on 12 April
C - May's Deal exit on 22 May but with the UK able unilaterally to leave the backstop
D - Common Market 2.0
E - Reaffirm the referendum and commit to leave the EU (doesn't say how or when)
F - Leave but try to stay in a Customs Union
G - Revoke if a deal isn't agreed
H - EFTA and EEA
I - Only leave with a deal agreed with both Scottish and Welsh devolved bodies
J - Any deal must include commitment to stay in a Customs Union
K - Labour's Plan (new WA with customs union, alignment to SM, alignment on rights etc)
L - Revoke unless Parliament approves no deal exit
M - WA subject to confirmatory referendum (Kyle-Wilson)
N - Malthouse: WA with new agreement on NI backstop
O - A Brexiter one that looks like a so-called managed no deal if we cant agree a WA
P - A Brexiter one, no deal but without anything nasty happening please, if we cant agree a WA
Macron goes to battle with French unions as he moves to force civil servants to work 35 hours a week
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6855601/Macron-goes-battle-French-unions-moves-force-civil-servants-work-35-hours-week.html
35hrs a week, its slave labour I tell you.
The WA is not a destination but a means to one - by far and away the easiest, but not the sole means.
Ans the specific terms of any amendments can be altered.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/38783/xt20006-en19-003.pdf
As far as I can see the
"Such an extension excludes any re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. "
statement applies to this specific extension. Nothing in the document says it will apply to a further extension.
Yet he is the good cop in his marriage.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562
Thinks she can get the deal through?
Demob happy?
Just a deal yes/no I think, with the consequences of no left down to parliament (probably yet another extension).
May would surely go for that if Labour was up for it.
Monty Python star criticises streaming service for rejecting his ideas – and says ITV pitch was turned down for being too intelligent
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/mar/27/john-cleese-netflix-never-returned-my-calls-after-comedy-pitch
Perhaps they weren't funny....
Time is unlikely to tell as I suspect May's deal will pass... the interesting thing is whether it passes with or without the Kyle amendment.
(Assuming the country survives in the meantime, of course.)
The only way I can make sense of the betting patterns is if there is a filibuster attempt lined up for the Lords, presumably tomorrow.
Meanwhile we have a good body of MPs determined to turn the Letwin process into chaos, both major parties struggling with whether and how to try to whip their members, and everyone else apparently only going to vote 'yes' to their favourite option. It will be a miracle if parliament emerges better regarded than it is right now.
Meanwhile Labour Shadow Business Minister Pidcock is on BBC PL and I am wondering whether there is any bottom to Labour's barrel.
So in spite of having "taken back control", we know nothing that happens today matters. None of the votes mean very much and nothing will change except we will be a day further down the road to No Deal.
We have still, as the only games in town, leaving with an agreed WA on 22/5, leaving without an agreed WA on 12/4 or revocation. When Ken Clarke, who seems to know his onions, talked about revocation the other day, he didn't say anything about stopping Brexit. What he implied was that as the current negotiations have floundered, we should cancel and re-instigate A50 after the EU elections and after a suitable time for reflection.
Now. that could include a GE or it may not - I suppose if it did and a Party won a majority on a particular plan (Norway, Canada Lite, Andorra Heavy or whatever) that would be a mandated position to file for A50 again and re-commence negotiation. At least the EU would be clear where the UK stood and it might well be the second round of negotiations would proceed far more smoothly than the first.
I'd rather Revoke, sort out exactly what we want and then re-apply A50 on a united and coherent position than either run down the clock with no WA or support what (despite the claims of the May apologists) is a flawed WA.
The problem is the Conservatives are terrified their voter base will not take kindly to revocation claiming (via the Mail and Express) it's a betrayal of the sacred 23/6/16 Referendum. Maybe but there comes a point when, whether they like it or not, parties can decide to act in the national interest or their own interest and if acting in the national interest is contrary to their own interest, so be it.
I well remember the siren calls from Conservatives for taxes to be cut in the run up to the 1997 election but Clarke refused and in so doing may have contributed to Blair's landslide but he bequeathed a sound economic position to Brown. Sometimes the best for the country isn't the best for your Party and you have to take the hit in the national interest.
At least Major had the style to say "I lost. I quit. See ya" and then go to the cricket where he could sit there grinning at the cameras through his shades.
The likes of Gove could start an argument in an empty lift and is constantly plotting, but I don't think people doubt he can actually run the day to day operation of a government department.