.....it'd be nuts to have, sat, Grieve, standing as a Tory candidate if the Tory manifesto was to implement no deal.
Or Grieve standing as a Tory candidate on a manifesto to implement Brexit, when all along his intention was to block it by any means possible.
You could say the same thing for maybe 10 of his colleagues, and over 100 Labour.
Parties stand on manifestos, candidates don't.
But, for all the fiction of the British constitution, people (with some few exceptions) tend to vote by party, not candidate, and hence by proxy for the manifesto
I'd say it's murky enough they nobody can really demand loyalty to a manifesto or claim a strong personal mandate.
W.R.T. professional voters, the big shift came under Thatcher/Major. That's when seats like Manchester Withington, Liverpool Wavertree, Newcastle Central, Streatham, Leeds NE and NW, Edinburgh C and S, Birmingham Edgbaston, Brighton Pavilion, Bristol W etc. all swung away from the Conservatives, and never came back. 40 years ago, many of the people on yesterday's March would have been Conservatives. Now, I doubt if even 5% would be.
Working class voters in areas that were hard-hit in the 1980's have proved much more forgiving to the Tories. Almost every ex--mining seat has shifted right.
Where the Conservatives do have a very strong professional vote still is in the Shires, small cities, and big towns. Where it has fallen away is in centres of government and university cities.
To what extent are the changes in those seats due to a mixture of boundary changes and significant underlying demographic changes? Brighton Pavilion was a safe Tory seat when represented by Julian Amery and William Teeling, but I suspect the electorate has changed beyond recognition. Much the same would be true of Liverpool Walton which had been Tory -held until narrowly won by Eric Heffer in 1964.
I'd say it's more down to attitudinal change than demographic change. All the seats I mentioned remain pretty well off.
Brighton as a holiday resort has seen a significant decline over the last 30 years or so - as has Blackpool et al. Hove was Labour lost deposit teriitory at the time Tim Sainsbury managed to see off Des Wilson's Liberal challenge at the November 1973 by-election. There must have been huge social changes in the area.
It's just that it tends to be in parts of the country which the liberal media almost never visit and have almost forgotten about. I'm talking about the middle-class areas of counties like Lancashire, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Northumberland, Shopshire, etc.
Interestingly, Lancashire, Lincolnshire and Northumberland are difficult to reach by train. However, Staffordshire and Shropshire are easier although overshadowed by Birmingham. Which may actually be the point you're making; even in these days of internet we are physically divided by distance, with people simply never visiting the other bits.
[Parenthetically, Beeching has a lot to answer for]
Both Lincolnshire and Northumberland have the main East Coast line running through them along with various branch lines. They are no more difficult to reach by train than most other counties.
This is fan fiction again. "I want a coup! I think X will make a great leader! Let me get my toy figures out and enact it!". Everybody's screaming May should step down, but nobody's forcing her to resign.
By this definition, Maggie was a nationalist. Her first message to the FCO was "You are there to represent Britain to the world, not the world to Britain."
Yes, a very unpleasant nationalist IMO, but I realise that's not a universal view .
On populism, I think in its usual sense it means "Willing to unscrupulously promise popular things that one knows are unlikely to work out". Peron is the archetype, and Chavez was another - full of reasonable intentions (though Chavez was probably more sincere) and some initial success, but ultimately discredited because the policies didn't actually work.
It's just that it tends to be in parts of the country which the liberal media almost never visit and have almost forgotten about. I'm talking about the middle-class areas of counties like Lancashire, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Northumberland, Shopshire, etc.
Interestingly, Lancashire, Lincolnshire and Northumberland are difficult to reach by train. However, Staffordshire and Shropshire are easier although overshadowed by Birmingham. Which may actually be the point you're making; even in these days of internet we are physically divided by distance, with people simply never visiting the other bits.
[Parenthetically, Beeching has a lot to answer for]
Both Lincolnshire and Northumberland have the main East Coast line running through them along with various branch lines. They are no more difficult to reach by train than most other counties.
Very, very difficult to get around Northumberland by train though. You have to go via Newcatle to get from Hexham to anywhere else in the county outside Tynedale. The Newcastle to Carlisle route is slow, infrequent, unreliable and on antiquated stock. To get from my local station to Carlisle is usually an hour and 40 for 46 miles involving a change. There are some direct trains in rush hour. Even these are an hour and 3.
Well whad'ya know, it turns out the "coup" was a big load of nothing. Tim Shipman got played like a fiddle.
I can imagine "friends" of Michael Gove were floating the coup idea last night to see what the reaction was in the party... And having seen it "friends" of Michael Gove are now rowing back faster ferret up a drain pipe.
Well whad'ya know, it turns out the "coup" was a big load of nothing. Tim Shipman got played like a fiddle.
I can imagine "friends" of Michael Gove were floating the coup idea last night to see what the reaction was in the party... And having seen it "friends" of Michael Gove are now rowing back faster ferret up a drain pipe.
Michael Gove doesn’t have any friend, even his friends think he’s a tw@ who cannot stop plotting.
I think we're almost certainly heading towards a US situation with our political parties here in the UK, with social attitudes being the main divider rather than economics. So I'd expect Labour to win Chipping Barnet at the next election, and the Tories Bishop Auckland.
ho ho
Great because that is really working out well for the American working class.
It's probably coincidence, but blue collar wages have risen strongly under Trump.
That's true and not true. The US has grown strongly, and wages have risen as the labour participation rate has continued to improve.
But the problem for President Trump is that the economy is strongest in the States which are least likely to change hands*. He needs Michigan to be top of the economic charts, not Washington state.
* The two exceptions to this rule are Florida and Virginia. And, of course, if President Trump keeps Florida in the Red column then the Democrats job gets that much harder. If I were to make a 2020 forecast, I'd say that a chunk of the Midwest would go Blue again - basically they jobs he promised have not come through, while Florida would stay comfortably Red. If he were to flip Virginia - which is by no means impossible - then he would likely remain President irrespective of what happens in Wisconsin, Michigan and the like.
What would really get my respect is if Raab just got the hell off Twitter altogether - I'm convinced the vast majority of the impasse we see in British politics now is down to the endless willy waving going on between individuals and tribes on Twitter!
It's just that it tends to be in parts of the country which the liberal media almost never visit and have almost forgotten about. I'm talking about the middle-class areas of counties like Lancashire, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Northumberland, Shopshire, etc.
Interestingly, Lancashire, Lincolnshire and Northumberland are difficult to reach by train. However, Staffordshire and Shropshire are easier although overshadowed by Birmingham. Which may actually be the point you're making; even in these days of internet we are physically divided by distance, with people simply never visiting the other bits.
[Parenthetically, Beeching has a lot to answer for]
Both Lincolnshire and Northumberland have the main East Coast line running through them along with various branch lines. They are no more difficult to reach by train than most other counties.
Arse. I got Northumberland and Cumbria mixed up.
Cumbria is on the main London to Glasgow line. The problem is that these are big counties, with poor connectivity to the main lines.
By this definition, Maggie was a nationalist. Her first message to the FCO was "You are there to represent Britain to the world, not the world to Britain."
Yes, a very unpleasant nationalist IMO, but I realise that's not a universal view .
On populism, I think in its usual sense it means "Willing to unscrupulously promise popular things that one knows are unlikely to work out". Peron is the archetype, and Chavez was another - full of reasonable intentions (though Chavez was probably more sincere) and some initial success, but ultimately discredited because the policies didn't actually work.
I don’t think an ex-communist and supporter of Jeremy Corbyn is best-placed to accuse others of being unpleasant.
Your second paragraph encapsulates everything that is wrong with left-wing politics. I am no fan of Peron, but his policies didn’t lead to starvation, 10% of the population going into exile and the return of treatable diseases as the healthcare system collapses, unlike in Corbyn’s beloved Venezuela. What possible relevance does sincerity have?
While we're covering yesterday's bitter Remoaner fest in London yesterday, let us in the interest of balance also highlight some well-attended patriotic Leaver protests, including this gathering in Plymouth.
I saw two of my friends went on the march from my Facebook feed last night.
They were both the ones I thought might do so. Very politically engaged and anti-Tory. They were incandescent following Cameron’s unexpected majority win in GE2015.
One big problem revoke/remain have is that their base, and supporters, are so clearly left-wing, economically, culturally and socially. There’s a vast gulf in values between them and the Conservative Party.
It puts off the vast majority of Conservative Party members and voters from even considering that Remaining in the EU could even be vaguely in their interest, or the nation’s interest, and - with the EU having friends like those - shows how suspicious they’d be of any Conservative who said otherwise.
Conservatives for Europe were quite numerous on the march, and several key speakers including Heseltine as the grand finale were well received.
There were many placards castigating the ERG, May and Corbyn, but the marchers were anti-Brexit, not anti-Tory. Of course in the last election a clear majority of 58% voted for non Tories.
The vast numbers of marchers were the demography that was once the bedrock of the Tory party, but have been abandonded by it.
I agree with the last sentence. But there's something far bigger going on there.
30-40 years ago, my peer group of the professional middle-class (save for academics and those really immersed in the public sector) would have been overwhelmingly Conservative.
Today, that isn't the case, and hasn't been for some time. The middle-class have definitively drifted to becoming socially liberal, internationalist, pro-higher taxation, re-distributive, economically soft-left in all other ways, and embrace identity politics with both arms.
This is *not* the case for those over the age of about 50-55, but very much is for those beneath, and is even more pronounced amongst females.
My 7 year old is being taught about “gender neutrality” at school
It's just that it tends to be in parts of the country which the liberal media almost never visit and have almost forgotten about. I'm talking about the middle-class areas of counties like Lancashire, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Northumberland, Shopshire, etc.
Interestingly, Lancashire, Lincolnshire and Northumberland are difficult to reach by train. However, Staffordshire and Shropshire are easier although overshadowed by Birmingham. Which may actually be the point you're making; even in these days of internet we are physically divided by distance, with people simply never visiting the other bits.
[Parenthetically, Beeching has a lot to answer for]
Both Lincolnshire and Northumberland have the main East Coast line running through them along with various branch lines. They are no more difficult to reach by train than most other counties.
Arse. I got Northumberland and Cumbria mixed up.
Cumbria is on the main London to Glasgow line. The problem is that these are big counties, with poor connectivity to the main lines.
Do the hills and mountains have an adverse impact for train line connectivity?
Well whad'ya know, it turns out the "coup" was a big load of nothing. Tim Shipman got played like a fiddle.
I can imagine "friends" of Michael Gove were floating the coup idea last night to see what the reaction was in the party... And having seen it "friends" of Michael Gove are now rowing back faster ferret up a drain pipe.
Michael Gove doesn’t have any friend, even his friends think he’s a tw@ who cannot stop plotting.
Sounds the like the perfect person to negotiate with the EU.
I saw two of my friends went on the march from my Facebook feed last night.
They were both the ones I thought might do so. Very politically engaged and anti-Tory. They were incandescent following Cameron’s unexpected majority win in GE2015.
One big problem revoke/remain have is that their base, and supporters, are so clearly left-wing, economically, culturally and socially. There’s a vast gulf in values between them and the Conservative Party.
It puts off the vast majority of Conservative Party members and voters from even considering that Remaining in the EU could even be vaguely in their interest, or the nation’s interest, and - with the EU having friends like those - shows how suspicious they’d be of any Conservative who said otherwise.
Conservatives for Europe were quite numerous on the march, and several key speakers including Heseltine as the grand finale were well received.
There were many placards castigating the ERG, May and Corbyn, but the marchers were anti-Brexit, not anti-Tory. Of course in the last election a clear majority of 58% voted for non Tories.
The vast numbers of marchers were the demography that was once the bedrock of the Tory party, but have been abandonded by it.
I agree with the last sentence. But there's something far bigger going on there.
30-40 years ago, my peer group of the professional middle-class (save for academics and those really immersed in the public sector) would have been overwhelmingly Conservative.
Today, that isn't the case, and hasn't been for some time. The middle-class have definitively drifted to becoming socially liberal, internationalist, pro-higher taxation, re-distributive, economically soft-left in all other ways, and embrace identity politics with both arms.
This is *not* the case for those over the age of about 50-55, but very much is for those beneath, and is even more pronounced amongst females.
My 7 year old is being taught about “gender neutrality” at school
How awful. Will probably turn into one of the gays now, thanks to the Liberal Elite.
I saw two of my friends went on the march from my Facebook feed last night.
They were both the ones I thought might do so. Very politically engaged and anti-Tory. They were incandescent following Cameron’s unexpected majority win in GE2015.
One big problem revoke/remain have is that their base, and supporters, are so clearly left-wing, economically, culturally and socially. There’s a vast gulf in values between them and the Conservative Party.
It puts off the vast majority of Conservative Party members and voters from even considering that Remaining in the EU could even be vaguely in their interest, or the nation’s interest, and - with the EU having friends like those - shows how suspicious they’d be of any Conservative who said otherwise.
Conservatives for Europe were quite numerous on the march, and several key speakers including Heseltine as the grand finale were well received.
There were many placards castigating the ERG, May and Corbyn, but the marchers were anti-Brexit, not anti-Tory. Of course in the last election a clear majority of 58% voted for non Tories.
The vast numbers of marchers were the demography that was once the bedrock of the Tory party, but have been abandonded by it.
I agree with the last sentence. But there's something far bigger going on there.
30-40 years ago, my peer group of the professional middle-class (save for academics and those really immersed in the public sector) would have been overwhelmingly Conservative.
Today, that isn't the case, and hasn't been for some time. The middle-class have definitively drifted to becoming socially liberal, internationalist, pro-higher taxation, re-distributive, economically soft-left in all other ways, and embrace identity politics with both arms.
This is *not* the case for those over the age of about 50-55, but very much is for those beneath, and is even more pronounced amongst females.
My 7 year old is being taught about “gender neutrality” at school
They won't be teaching any of that in Birmingham schools...
This has the air of one of those rumoured cabinet coups that go nowhere. It may still happen after the indicative votes. May might still offer to resign after MV3 (which presumably is still going down). I don’t think we’re quite at the crunch moment yet.
This has the air of one of those rumoured cabinet coups that go nowhere. It may still happen after the indicative votes. May might still offer to resign after MV3 (which presumably is still going down). I don’t think we’re quite at the crunch moment yet.
I seemed to remember at one point it seemed like there was going to supposed to be a coup against Gordo every other day.
Seems a bit bad-tempered this morning. How can anyone be upset when David Lidington is being tipped to take over as Prime Minister?
How does credit risk work on betfair? If you are going to win several thousand pounds on liddington what’s to stop your counterpart disappearing in a puff of pixels?
This has the air of one of those rumoured cabinet coups that go nowhere. It may still happen after the indicative votes. May might still offer to resign after MV3 (which presumably is still going down). I don’t think we’re quite at the crunch moment yet.
I think Theresa will go shortly but when she does her successor must be chosen in the usual way with a leadership contest.
I don't find it trivial. I find it wrong that anyone is seeking to defend her. I don't care that she wasn't charged. Domestic violence is wrong whether the perpetrator is male or female.
This should be the end of her career. It probably won't be. But it should be.
I saw two of my friends went on the march from my Facebook feed last night.
They were both the ones I thought might do so. Very politically engaged and anti-Tory. They were incandescent following Cameron’s unexpected majority win in GE2015.
One big problem revoke/remain have is that their base, and supporters, are so clearly left-wing, economically, culturally and socially. There’s a vast gulf in values between them and the Conservative Party.
It puts off the vast majority of Conservative Party members and voters from even considering that Remaining in the EU could even be vaguely in their interest, or the nation’s interest, and - with the EU having friends like those - shows how suspicious they’d be of any Conservative who said otherwise.
Conservatives for Europe were quite numerous on the march, and several key speakers including Heseltine as the grand finale were well received.
There were many placards castigating the ERG, May and Corbyn, but the marchers were anti-Brexit, not anti-Tory. Of course in the last election a clear majority of 58% voted for non Tories.
The vast numbers of marchers were the demography that was once the bedrock of the Tory party, but have been abandonded by it.
I agree with the last sentence. But there's something far bigger going on there.
30-40 years ago, my peer group of the professional middle-class (save for academics and those really immersed in the public sector) would have been overwhelmingly Conservative.
Today, that isn't the case, and hasn't been for some time. The middle-class have definitively drifted to becoming socially liberal, internationalist, pro-higher taxation, re-distributive, economically soft-left in all other ways, and embrace identity politics with both arms.
This is *not* the case for those over the age of about 50-55, but very much is for those beneath, and is even more pronounced amongst females.
My 7 year old is being taught about “gender neutrality” at school
The long march through the institutions.
We are where we are because the cultural marxists have controlled education for some time.
While we're covering yesterday's bitter Remoaner fest in London yesterday, let us in the interest of balance also highlight some well-attended patriotic Leaver protests, including this gathering in Plymouth.
It's just that it tends to be in parts of the country which the liberal media almost never visit and have almost forgotten about. I'm talking about the middle-class areas of counties like Lancashire, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Northumberland, Shopshire, etc.
Interestingly, Lancashire, Lincolnshire and Northumberland are difficult to reach by train. However, Staffordshire and Shropshire are easier although overshadowed by Birmingham. Which may actually be the point you're making; even in these days of internet we are physically divided by distance, with people simply never visiting the other bits.
[Parenthetically, Beeching has a lot to answer for]
Both Lincolnshire and Northumberland have the main East Coast line running through them along with various branch lines. They are no more difficult to reach by train than most other counties.
Arse. I got Northumberland and Cumbria mixed up.
Cumbria is on the main London to Glasgow line. The problem is that these are big counties, with poor connectivity to the main lines.
Do the hills and mountains have an adverse impact for train line connectivity?
Either that or a total lack of interest from successive governments and Northern Rail. Switzerland seems to manage.
Populism has got a bad name but it isn't itself inherently bad. Its a fundamental of liberal democracy and underlying it is the basic idea of 'we rule them they don't rule us'.
Those who decry it full stop are ignorant and dismissive because they are effectively saying that the masses are all thick as two short planks. They aren't, in fact they have a habit of tearing through the bullshit.
Like any political philosophy its all about how its seen to carried through in practice. I consider myself a British nationalist, a combination of words that will automatically conjure up an image but I am wedded to liberal democratic principles. I just happen to believe that the UK should keep its own interests uppermost and that the generally accepted nation state is about the largest vehicle that can truly maintain liberal democracy through a direct line between people and politicians chosen to manage the country. It neither suggests exceptionalism nor excludes co operation with other nations.
Yet, like populism, its decried as being somehow inherently bad.
And you wonder why many of the masses who, lest we forget, have a vote, get pissed off.
I agree entirely with this. It reflects just my thinking as well.
Currently my view is tending towards the idea that 'populism' is a word used by people to describe any democratic decision they don't agree with as a means of undermining its legitimacy.
The issue is less populism as majoritarianism. Most liberal democracies have a mechanism whereby it is very difficult to overturn the rights of a minority group. It is conceivable that there might be popular majorities to overturn any aspect of the the US Bill of Rights - but they would find it very hard to do so. My concern in the UK is that there is increasingly an assumption that a bare majority can do anything It wants and damn the consequences. Majoritarianism also has a habit of demonising the minority with less than desirable results.
Most remainers I know are most pissed off about their own loss of FOM - indeed it was very much that argument that the Supreme Court agreed with in Miller. They might never have used it but it was nice to know it was there, like the freedom of the press or that to own a gun for some Americans. Leaving the EU with less loss of the personal rights that came with it would be less objectionable in my view.
.....it'd be nuts to have, sat, Grieve, standing as a Tory candidate if the Tory manifesto was to implement no deal.
Or Grieve standing as a Tory candidate on a manifesto to implement Brexit, when all along his intention was to block it by any means possible.
You could say the same thing for maybe 10 of his colleagues, and over 100 Labour.
Parties stand on manifestos, candidates don't.
But, for all the fiction of the British constitution, people (with some few exceptions) tend to vote by party, not candidate, and hence by proxy for the manifesto
You can't argue that they aren't voting for their candidate - who they don't know - but are voting for the manifesto - which they haven't read.
The legal position is that they are voting for their candidate. The reality is that they are either voting the way they always vote or are voting as if the party leader were their candidate.
I don't find it trivial. I find it wrong that anyone is seeking to defend her. I don't care that she wasn't charged. Domestic violence is wrong whether the perpetrator is male or female.
This should be the end of her career. It probably won't be. But it should be.
Isn't there a "De Minimis" somewhere? I wouldn't slap a woman, but if a woman hit me I'd bck off smartish.
Well whad'ya know, it turns out the "coup" was a big load of nothing. Tim Shipman got played like a fiddle.
I can imagine "friends" of Michael Gove were floating the coup idea last night to see what the reaction was in the party... And having seen it "friends" of Michael Gove are now rowing back faster ferret up a drain pipe.
I wouldn’t write off a ‘coup’ just yet.
IIRC, Shipman didn’t claim friends of Gove etc among his sources. I suspect he got it from people with less personal skin in the game, Peston has gone to the horses’ mouths (or at least their friends) and got an obvious denial, because cabinet ministers don’t go round blurting they want to depose the boss. Shipman’s thread and the BuzzFeed bit yesterday speak to me of an utter breakdown in cabinet unity and confidentiality, and decapitation strikes me as a very likely tool in the box if TM tries to stick to a straight Noel Edmonds-style choice.
If the plan is for ‘disposable PM to carry out X’, though, I’d favour Lidington or maybe Cox (or, frankly, any other blameless old time server who’ll be happy with retirement or a junior education post in six months). Any leader chosen in those circumstances will be kicked out in six months. The big beasts like Gove/Hunt/Javid will want it for the long-term and I’d imagine would sit out the emergency leader phase.
It's just that it tends to be in parts of the country which the liberal media almost never visit and have almost forgotten about. I'm talking about the middle-class areas of counties like Lancashire, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Northumberland, Shopshire, etc.
Interestingly, Lancashire, Lincolnshire and Northumberland are difficult to reach by train. However, Staffordshire and Shropshire are easier although overshadowed by Birmingham. Which may actually be the point you're making; even in these days of internet we are physically divided by distance, with people simply never visiting the other bits.
[Parenthetically, Beeching has a lot to answer for]
Both Lincolnshire and Northumberland have the main East Coast line running through them along with various branch lines. They are no more difficult to reach by train than most other counties.
Arse. I got Northumberland and Cumbria mixed up.
Cumbria is on the main London to Glasgow line. The problem is that these are big counties, with poor connectivity to the main lines.
Do the hills and mountains have an adverse impact for train line connectivity?
Either that or a total lack of interest from successive governments and Northern Rail. Switzerland seems to manage.
Switzerland has huge amounts of *ahem* interesting capital deposits plus some very high quality pharma and engineering companies to support a world class economy. They can afford nice train sets
This has the air of one of those rumoured cabinet coups that go nowhere. It may still happen after the indicative votes. May might still offer to resign after MV3 (which presumably is still going down). I don’t think we’re quite at the crunch moment yet.
I think Theresa will go shortly but when she does her successor must be chosen in the usual way with a leadership contest.
I don’t really see the problem with her staying on as interim leader. It’s not like anyone who takes that role is going to be able to move things forward in any meaningful way.
Who James O'Brien?....I thought everybody knew that.
The man for whom the word 'twat' was invented
I listened to his show a bit this week. He complained he had no Brexit supporters phoning in. I thought he would be lucky to have more than a handful listening. He did have a barrister and some other posh named people. Very much the twitter echo chamber come to life
Seems a bit bad-tempered this morning. How can anyone be upset when David Lidington is being tipped to take over as Prime Minister?
How does credit risk work on betfair? If you are going to win several thousand pounds on liddington what’s to stop your counterpart disappearing in a puff of pixels?
Er, because the counterpart has already paid their money to Betfair, who hold the cash until the market is resolved.
Seems a bit bad-tempered this morning. How can anyone be upset when David Lidington is being tipped to take over as Prime Minister?
How does credit risk work on betfair? If you are going to win several thousand pounds on liddington what’s to stop your counterpart disappearing in a puff of pixels?
Cash up front, though Betfair will allow you to withdraw that to the extent that you match the risks assumed later. The credit risk is on Betfair itself and it managing accounts properly.
I don't find it trivial. I find it wrong that anyone is seeking to defend her. I don't care that she wasn't charged. Domestic violence is wrong whether the perpetrator is male or female.
This should be the end of her career. It probably won't be. But it should be.
I misread that as MP admits slapping boyfriend in row over Vince Cable?
How serious was this slapping that the police had to intervene and mediate anyway? Of course had she been male and her partner female her leadership chances would almost certainly be done for - because the excuse of a strained relationship wouldn't cut much ice particularly as this was done in public place.
I saw two of my friends went on the march from my Facebook feed last night.
They were both the ones I thought might do so. Very politically engaged and anti-Tory. They were incandescent following Cameron’s unexpected majority win in GE2015.
One big problem revoke/remain have is that their base, and supporters, are so clearly left-wing, economically, culturally and socially. There’s a vast gulf in values between them and the Conservative Party.
It puts off the vast majority of Conservative Party members and voters from even considering that Remaining in the EU could even be vaguely in their interest, or the nation’s interest, and - with the EU having friends like those - shows how suspicious they’d be of any Conservative who said otherwise.
Conservatives for Europe were quite numerous on the march, and several key speakers including Heseltine as the grand finale were well received.
There were many placards castigating the ERG, May and Corbyn, but the marchers were anti-Brexit, not anti-Tory. Of course in the last election a clear majority of 58% voted for non Tories.
The vast numbers of marchers were the demography that was once the bedrock of the Tory party, but have been abandonded by it.
I agree with the last sentence. But there's something far bigger going on there.
30-40 years ago, my peer group of the professional middle-class (save for academics and those really immersed in the public sector) would have been overwhelmingly Conservative.
Today, that isn't the case, and hasn't been for some time. The middle-class have definitively drifted to becoming socially liberal, internationalist, pro-higher taxation, re-distributive, economically soft-left in all other ways, and embrace identity politics with both arms.
This is *not* the case for those over the age of about 50-55, but very much is for those beneath, and is even more pronounced amongst females.
My 7 year old is being taught about “gender neutrality” at school
They won't be teaching any of that in Birmingham schools...
If they can pick and choose only fair that other parents can too.
Or we apply the law to all.
I will not hold my breath though in the current climate
I saw two of my friends went on the march from my Facebook feed last night.
They were both the ones I thought might do so. Very politically engaged and anti-Tory. They were incandescent following Cameron’s unexpected majority win in GE2015.
One big problem revoke/remain have is that their base, and supporters, are so clearly left-wing, economically, culturally and socially. There’s a vast gulf in values between them and the Conservative Party.
It puts off the vast majority of Conservative Party members and voters from even considering that Remaining in the EU could even be vaguely in their interest, or the nation’s interest, and - with the EU having friends like those - shows how suspicious they’d be of any Conservative who said otherwise.
Conservatives for Europe were quite numerous on the march, and several key speakers including Heseltine as the grand finale were well received.
There were many placards castigating the ERG, May and Corbyn, but the marchers were anti-Brexit, not anti-Tory. Of course in the last election a clear majority of 58% voted for non Tories.
The vast numbers of marchers were the demography that was once the bedrock of the Tory party, but have been abandonded by it.
I agree with the last sentence. But there's something far bigger going on there.
30-40 years ago, my peer group of the professional middle-class (save for academics and those really immersed in the public sector) would have been overwhelmingly Conservative.
Today, that isn't the case, and hasn't been for some time. The middle-class have definitively drifted to becoming socially liberal, internationalist, pro-higher taxation, re-distributive, economically soft-left in all other ways, and embrace identity politics with both arms.
This is *not* the case for those over the age of about 50-55, but very much is for those beneath, and is even more pronounced amongst females.
My 7 year old is being taught about “gender neutrality” at school
They won't be teaching any of that in Birmingham schools...
If they can pick and choose only fair that other parents can too.
Or we apply the law to all.
I will not hold my breath though in the current climate
Who James O'Brien?....I thought everybody knew that.
The man for whom the word 'twat' was invented
I listened to his show a bit this week. He complained he had no Brexit supporters phoning in. I thought he would be lucky to have more than a handful listening. He did have a barrister and some other posh named people. Very much the twitter echo chamber come to life
It can be a superb show. A worthy successor to the great Brian Hayes who owned the same slot many years ago.
Seems a bit bad-tempered this morning. How can anyone be upset when David Lidington is being tipped to take over as Prime Minister?
How does credit risk work on betfair? If you are going to win several thousand pounds on liddington what’s to stop your counterpart disappearing in a puff of pixels?
Assuming you mean "Betfair Exchange" and not "Betfair Sportsbook ( ) I think the counterparty will already have deposited the money with them.
When you back X on Betfair Exchange, you place a sum with them. So when X happens you get it and your profit back (or zero if it doesn't)
When you lay X on Betfair Exchange you place a larger sum with them, enough for the other guy to get his stake and winnings from you. So when X doesn't happen you get that larger sum plus the other guy's stake (or zero if it does).
I can't remember if Betfair get their profit by skimming off the top or just by the interest they get from holding your cash for a time.
This has the air of one of those rumoured cabinet coups that go nowhere. It may still happen after the indicative votes. May might still offer to resign after MV3 (which presumably is still going down). I don’t think we’re quite at the crunch moment yet.
I think Theresa will go shortly but when she does her successor must be chosen in the usual way with a leadership contest.
I don’t really see the problem with her staying on as interim leader. It’s not like anyone who takes that role is going to be able to move things forward in any meaningful way.
The problem is that May simply doesn't have it in her to manage some sort of "OK, MPs, what options do you prefer?" process given everything she has said and done. And so creates a strong risk that Parliament will take leadership of the process away from her altogether.
How does credit risk work on betfair? If you are going to win several thousand pounds on liddington what’s to stop your counterpart disappearing in a puff of pixels?
It's never* done on credit for that reason. All money matched has to be deposited first.
*sort of, there are a few credit accounts, but not for Joe Bloggs.
5 million who never accepted the referendum result vs 17.4m who actually voted Leave. Democracy is not on your side.
Apples are not oranges, then is not now, and at least one of those signatories (me) was fine with accepting the referendum result until it became clear that the proponents of leave could not organise a dose of clap in a whorehouse.
Who James O'Brien?....I thought everybody knew that.
The man for whom the word 'twat' was invented
Very much agree - O'Brien is arguably the rudest man on talk radio. Being rude to politicians coming on your show is one thing - but he is invariably rude to anyone who calls in who doesn't agree with him and when they are starting to get the better of him he shouts and interrupts them and then ends the call.
And his endless 20 minute rants at the start of each show are just tedious - and its pretty much the same rant about the same topics every day. Still he has his audience - but its not for me.
Anyhoo, as everybody here has gotten down with the workers and through their Mighty Populist Powers divined the intent of those who work for a living (as opposed to actually being one), may I suggest UNITE's march for Swindon on March 30th
It's just that it tends to be in parts of the country which the liberal media almost never visit and have almost forgotten about. I'm talking about the middle-class areas of counties like Lancashire, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Northumberland, Shopshire, etc.
Interestingly, Lancashire, Lincolnshire and Northumberland are difficult to reach by train. However, Staffordshire and Shropshire are easier although overshadowed by Birmingham. Which may actually be the point you're making; even in these days of internet we are physically divided by distance, with people simply never visiting the other bits.
[Parenthetically, Beeching has a lot to answer for]
Both Lincolnshire and Northumberland have the main East Coast line running through them along with various branch lines. They are no more difficult to reach by train than most other counties.
Arse. I got Northumberland and Cumbria mixed up.
Cumbria is on the main London to Glasgow line. The problem is that these are big counties, with poor connectivity to the main lines.
Do the hills and mountains have an adverse impact for train line connectivity?
Either that or a total lack of interest from successive governments and Northern Rail. Switzerland seems to manage.
Switzerland has huge amounts of *ahem* interesting capital deposits plus some very high quality pharma and engineering companies to support a world class economy. They can afford nice train sets
Indeed. We have a spectacularly lucrative financial centre in London, and a political system built around propping it up. Which builds a heck of a lot of nice things mostly in London. Which is why people outside big cities feel ignored and deprived. Which is where this discussion came in.
Who James O'Brien?....I thought everybody knew that.
The man for whom the word 'twat' was invented
I listened to his show a bit this week. He complained he had no Brexit supporters phoning in. I thought he would be lucky to have more than a handful listening. He did have a barrister and some other posh named people. Very much the twitter echo chamber come to life
It can be a superb show. A worthy successor to the great Brian Hayes who owned the same slot many years ago.
Well, he would now only have a handful of Bexit supporters listening, wouldn't he? People prepared to go public about it are realisling the error of their ways.
Every Gov we elect with an overall majority ignores those who voted for other parties. That is fact under FPTP. Why should it be different for a referendum result when the three other referenda - Scottish Independence, AV or continuing with FPTP, staying in the EEC - also ignored those who voted for the alternatives ?
This has the air of one of those rumoured cabinet coups that go nowhere. It may still happen after the indicative votes. May might still offer to resign after MV3 (which presumably is still going down). I don’t think we’re quite at the crunch moment yet.
I think Theresa will go shortly but when she does her successor must be chosen in the usual way with a leadership contest.
I don’t really see the problem with her staying on as interim leader. It’s not like anyone who takes that role is going to be able to move things forward in any meaningful way.
The problem is that May simply doesn't have it in her to manage some sort of "OK, MPs, what options do you prefer?" process given everything she has said and done. And so creates a strong risk that Parliament will take leadership of the process away from her altogether.
Her Granny was a nanny wasn't she? And Nanny ALWAYS knows best!
5 million who never accepted the referendum result vs 17.4m who actually voted Leave. Democracy is not on your side.
Apples are not oranges, then is not now, and at least one of those signatories (me) was fine with accepting the referendum result until it became clear that the proponents of leave could not organise a dose of clap in a whorehouse.
I’ll bow to your greater knowledge of how to organise a dose of clap in a whorehouse but your analogy is flawed. I seem to recall May voted to Remain and Corbyn led Labour’s referendum campaign on a Remain platform.
5 million who never accepted the referendum result vs 17.4m who actually voted Leave. Democracy is not on your side.
Apples are not oranges, then is not now, and at least one of those signatories (me) was fine with accepting the referendum result until it became clear that the proponents of leave could not organise a dose of clap in a whorehouse.
I’ll bow to your greater knowledge of how to organise a dose of clap in a whorehouse but your analogy is flawed. I seem to recall May voted to Remain and Corbyn led Labour’s referendum campaign on a Remain platform.
Every Gov we elect with an overall majority ignores those who voted for other parties. That is fact under FPTP. Why should it be different for a referendum result when the three other referenda - Scottish Independence, AV or continuing with FPTP, staying in the EEC - also ignored those who voted for the alternatives ?
Which is why our voting system is pants. Look at the politicians that our antiquated adversarial system throws up, and weep - I'd take products of PR like Scotland's Sturgeon or the EU's Tusk or Barnier in a heartbeat over almost all of the Uk Cabinet. It really is grown ups versus children.
5 million who never accepted the referendum result vs 17.4m who actually voted Leave. Democracy is not on your side.
Apples are not oranges, then is not now, and at least one of those signatories (me) was fine with accepting the referendum result until it became clear that the proponents of leave could not organise a dose of clap in a whorehouse.
I’ll bow to your greater knowledge of how to organise a dose of clap in a whorehouse but your analogy is flawed. I seem to recall May voted to Remain and Corbyn led Labour’s referendum campaign on a Remain platform.
By "led", do you mean was terribly busy anytime anybody asked him to speak up for Remain?
Who James O'Brien?....I thought everybody knew that.
The man for whom the word 'twat' was invented
I listened to his show a bit this week. He complained he had no Brexit supporters phoning in. I thought he would be lucky to have more than a handful listening. He did have a barrister and some other posh named people. Very much the twitter echo chamber come to life
I'm afraid to admit that I dislike Eddie Sneer more; I switched to LBC to avoid him on R4 and then he transferred.
May can only save her job by crashing the UK out next Friday . Ignoring that under international law the UK remains in the EU until at least 12 April .
These ERG nutjobs are clearly a danger to the country and are so driven by their ideology that they don’t care about anything else .
Populism has got a bad name but it isn't itself inherently bad. Its a fundamental of liberal democracy and underlying it is the basic idea of 'we rule them they don't rule us'.
Those who decry it full stop are ignorant and dismissive because they are effectively saying that the masses are all thick as two short planks. They aren't, in fact they have a habit of tearing through the bullshit.
Like any political philosophy its all about how its seen to carried through in practice. I consider myself a British nationalist, a combination of words that will automatically conjure up an image but I am wedded to liberal democratic principles. I just happen to believe that the UK should keep its own interests uppermost and that the generally accepted nation state is about the largest vehicle that can truly maintain liberal democracy through a direct line between people and politicians chosen to manage the country. It neither suggests exceptionalism nor excludes co operation with other nations.
Yet, like populism, its decried as being somehow inherently bad.
And you wonder why many of the masses who, lest we forget, have a vote, get pissed off.
This has the air of one of those rumoured cabinet coups that go nowhere. It may still happen after the indicative votes. May might still offer to resign after MV3 (which presumably is still going down). I don’t think we’re quite at the crunch moment yet.
I think Theresa will go shortly but when she does her successor must be chosen in the usual way with a leadership contest.
I don’t really see the problem with her staying on as interim leader. It’s not like anyone who takes that role is going to be able to move things forward in any meaningful way.
The problem is that May simply doesn't have it in her to manage some sort of "OK, MPs, what options do you prefer?" process given everything she has said and done. And so creates a strong risk that Parliament will take leadership of the process away from her altogether.
I think the very reason a change at this stage is being discussed is because no-one trusts her not to drive over the cliff. She’s already taken steps which go against the spirit if not the letter of clear Commons votes. If she was a suitable caretaker, then naming a date six months hence for her to go might do the trick. But the clear and present danger (as her opponents see it) is that she won’t go for anything other than deal or No Deal.
I have some sympathy with the “pass the WA then re-open the future relationship under someone new” line, but I’m not convinced the votes are there for the WA in the short term.
This has the air of one of those rumoured cabinet coups that go nowhere. It may still happen after the indicative votes. May might still offer to resign after MV3 (which presumably is still going down). I don’t think we’re quite at the crunch moment yet.
I think Theresa will go shortly but when she does her successor must be chosen in the usual way with a leadership contest.
I don’t really see the problem with her staying on as interim leader. It’s not like anyone who takes that role is going to be able to move things forward in any meaningful way.
The problem is that May simply doesn't have it in her to manage some sort of "OK, MPs, what options do you prefer?" process given everything she has said and done. And so creates a strong risk that Parliament will take leadership of the process away from her altogether.
Her Granny was a nanny wasn't she? And Nanny ALWAYS knows best!
Granny Nanny! I would have so run with that as a child...
Every Gov we elect with an overall majority ignores those who voted for other parties. That is fact under FPTP. Why should it be different for a referendum result when the three other referenda - Scottish Independence, AV or continuing with FPTP, staying in the EEC - also ignored those who voted for the alternatives ?
Only really true of the AV ref. The Scottish Independence referendum was won by promising increase in devolved powers to win over waivering nationalists and Scotland has had a nationalist government that promotes the view of the opposing side. Eurosceptics never accepted the 1975 result so we are/were not in the Euro, Schengen, the social chapter etc etc. Furthermore, any government is always on the lookout for new votes so it is rare for them to completely ignore those that didn’t vote for them and normally change their policies when they turn out to be an the kind of irredeemable clusterf**k Brexit has.
By this definition, Maggie was a nationalist. Her first message to the FCO was "You are there to represent Britain to the world, not the world to Britain."
Yes, a very unpleasant nationalist IMO, but I realise that's not a universal view .
On populism, I think in its usual sense it means "Willing to unscrupulously promise popular things that one knows are unlikely to work out". Peron is the archetype, and Chavez was another - full of reasonable intentions (though Chavez was probably more sincere) and some initial success, but ultimately discredited because the policies didn't actually work.
Every Gov we elect with an overall majority ignores those who voted for other parties. That is fact under FPTP. Why should it be different for a referendum result when the three other referenda - Scottish Independence, AV or continuing with FPTP, staying in the EEC - also ignored those who voted for the alternatives ?
Did anyone suggest when Yes lost the Scottish referendum by only 400,000 votes that we could maybe partially let Scotland leave the UK - 45% out perhaps? Maybe 45% of the country could go it alone - say the area to the north of the Tay?
Its surely very unfair the concerns of the 45% were ignored and the entire country was forced to stay? Nearly 70% of those over 70 voted No vs only 38 per cent of 25-29 year olds - how many of the former are still alive so things would be different now etc etc ad nauseum.
Of course the difference was the vote went the 'right' way.
5 million who never accepted the referendum result vs 17.4m who actually voted Leave. Democracy is not on your side.
Apples are not oranges, then is not now, and at least one of those signatories (me) was fine with accepting the referendum result until it became clear that the proponents of leave could not organise a dose of clap in a whorehouse.
I’ll bow to your greater knowledge of how to organise a dose of clap in a whorehouse but your analogy is flawed. I seem to recall May voted to Remain and Corbyn led Labour’s referendum campaign on a Remain platform.
By "led", do you mean was terribly busy anytime anybody asked him to speak up for Remain?
Aaron Banks ("The Bad Boys of Brexit") agrees with you. Corbyn's devotion to the cause of Leave is truly inspirational. It's amazing how he manages to fit it in between his bouts of terrorist-fondling, but he seems to manage it. Mr Integrity!
By this definition, Maggie was a nationalist. Her first message to the FCO was "You are there to represent Britain to the world, not the world to Britain."
Yes, a very unpleasant nationalist IMO, but I realise that's not a universal view .
On populism, I think in its usual sense it means "Willing to unscrupulously promise popular things that one knows are unlikely to work out". Peron is the archetype, and Chavez was another - full of reasonable intentions (though Chavez was probably more sincere) and some initial success, but ultimately discredited because the policies didn't actually work.
Thatcher was superb, and spot on.
I wish we had her now.
In the context of a Hung Parliament she would have been hopeless - and far too divisive.
W.R.T. professional voters, the big shift came under Thatcher/Major. That's when seats like Manchester Withington, Liverpool Wavertree, Newcastle Central, Streatham, Leeds NE and NW, Edinburgh C and S, Birmingham Edgbaston, Brighton Pavilion, Bristol W etc. all swung away from the Conservatives, and never came back. 40 years ago, many of the people on yesterday's March would have been Conservatives. Now, I doubt if even 5% would be.
Working class voters in areas that were hard-hit in the 1980's have proved much more forgiving to the Tories. Almost every ex--mining seat has shifted right.
Where the Conservatives do have a very strong professional vote still is in the Shires, small cities, and big towns. Where it has fallen away is in centres of government and university cities.
To what extent are the changes in those seats due to a mixture of boundary changes and significant underlying demographic changes? Brighton Pavilion was a safe Tory seat when represented by Julian Amery and William Teeling, but I suspect the electorate has changed beyond recognition. Much the same would be true of Liverpool Walton which had been Tory -held until narrowly won by Eric Heffer in 1964.
I'd say it's more down to attitudinal change than demographic change. All the seats I mentioned remain pretty well off.
Brighton as a holiday resort has seen a significant decline over the last 30 years or so - as has Blackpool et al. Hove was Labour lost deposit teriitory at the time Tim Sainsbury managed to see off Des Wilson's Liberal challenge at the November 1973 by-election. There must have been huge social changes in the area.
Brighton and Bristol West are probably the most left wing places in England outside London.
Every Gov we elect with an overall majority ignores those who voted for other parties. That is fact under FPTP. Why should it be different for a referendum result when the three other referenda - Scottish Independence, AV or continuing with FPTP, staying in the EEC - also ignored those who voted for the alternatives ?
Did anyone suggest when Yes lost the Scottish referendum by only 400,000 votes that we could maybepartially let Scotland leave the UK - 45% out perhaps? Maybe 45% of the country could go it alone - say the area to the north of the Tay.
Its surely very unfair the concerns of the 45% were ignored and the entire country was forced to stay? Nearly 70% of those over 70 voted No vs only 38 per cent of 25-29 year olds - how many of the former are still alive etc etc ad nauseum.
Of course the difference was the vote went the 'right' way.
A sort of partial independence WAS the result of the Scottish Independence referendum. It was “the vow” that got No over the line when it looked a bit dicey. I may be wrong but I think that the Scottish Parliament has more devolved powers than any similar assembly in the world.
Seems a bit bad-tempered this morning. How can anyone be upset when David Lidington is being tipped to take over as Prime Minister?
How does credit risk work on betfair? If you are going to win several thousand pounds on liddington what’s to stop your counterpart disappearing in a puff of pixels?
Cash up front, though Betfair will allow you to withdraw that to the extent that you match the risks assumed later. The credit risk is on Betfair itself and it managing accounts properly.
Betfair is absolutely superb.
I'm not sure it will last though. I worry some future government will regulate out of business sooner rather than later.
Who James O'Brien?....I thought everybody knew that.
The man for whom the word 'twat' was invented
Very much agree - O'Brien is arguably the rudest man on talk radio. Being rude to politicians coming on your show is one thing - but he is invariably rude to anyone who calls in who doesn't agree with him and when they are starting to get the better of him he shouts and interrupts them and then ends the call.
And his endless 20 minute rants at the start of each show are just tedious - and its pretty much the same rant about the same topics every day. Still he has his audience - but its not for me.
JO'B is obsessed by being seen to be right, but secretly is worried he isn't.
I think we're almost certainly heading towards a US situation with our political parties here in the UK, with social attitudes being the main divider rather than economics. So I'd expect Labour to win Chipping Barnet at the next election, and the Tories Bishop Auckland.
ho ho
Great because that is really working out well for the American working class.
It's probably coincidence, but blue collar wages have risen strongly under Trump.
That's true and not true. The US has grown strongly, and wages have risen as the labour participation rate has continued to improve.
But the problem for President Trump is that the economy is strongest in the States which are least likely to change hands*. He needs Michigan to be top of the economic charts, not Washington state.
* The two exceptions to this rule are Florida and Virginia. And, of course, if President Trump keeps Florida in the Red column then the Democrats job gets that much harder. If I were to make a 2020 forecast, I'd say that a chunk of the Midwest would go Blue again - basically they jobs he promised have not come through, while Florida would stay comfortably Red. If he were to flip Virginia - which is by no means impossible - then he would likely remain President irrespective of what happens in Wisconsin, Michigan and the like.
Not necessarily, provided the Democrats won Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico ie the Kerry and Gore states and the Hillary states minus Virginia they win the Electoral College 272 to 266 even if Trump wins Florida and Virginia. Indeed it is not impossible Trump could win the popular vote in 2020 by doing better in the big but safe Democratic states like New York and California and increasing his margin in Florida but lose the Electoral College by narrowly losing the key Midwest swing states
This has the air of one of those rumoured cabinet coups that go nowhere. It may still happen after the indicative votes. May might still offer to resign after MV3 (which presumably is still going down). I don’t think we’re quite at the crunch moment yet.
I think Theresa will go shortly but when she does her successor must be chosen in the usual way with a leadership contest.
I don’t really see the problem with her staying on as interim leader. It’s not like anyone who takes that role is going to be able to move things forward in any meaningful way.
The problem is that May simply doesn't have it in her to manage some sort of "OK, MPs, what options do you prefer?" process given everything she has said and done. And so creates a strong risk that Parliament will take leadership of the process away from her altogether.
I think the very reason a change at this stage is being discussed is because no-one trusts her not to drive over the cliff. She’s already taken steps which go against the spirit if not the letter of clear Commons votes. If she was a suitable caretaker, then naming a date six months hence for her to go might do the trick. But the clear and present danger (as her opponents see it) is that she won’t go for anything other than deal or No Deal.
I have some sympathy with the “pass the WA then re-open the future relationship under someone new” line, but I’m not convinced the votes are there for the WA in the short term.
Yes, I had a friendly debate a while back with Casino R. about whether it came down to a straight choice of Revoke or No Deal. I made the latter 2/1 on, but I certainly would not make it any shorter because on all known form you simply could not trust her.
By this definition, Maggie was a nationalist. Her first message to the FCO was "You are there to represent Britain to the world, not the world to Britain."
Yes, a very unpleasant nationalist IMO, but I realise that's not a universal view .
On populism, I think in its usual sense it means "Willing to unscrupulously promise popular things that one knows are unlikely to work out". Peron is the archetype, and Chavez was another - full of reasonable intentions (though Chavez was probably more sincere) and some initial success, but ultimately discredited because the policies didn't actually work.
Thatcher was superb, and spot on.
I wish we had her now.
In the context of a Hung Parliament she would have been hopeless - and far too divisive.
What, like post her election in 1975?
What you forget is that she was a skilled politician. Very skilled.
I saw two of my friends went on the march from my Facebook feed last night.
They were both the ones I thought might do so. Very politically engaged and anti-Tory. They were incandescent following Cameron’s unexpected majority win in GE2015.
One big problem revoke/remain have is that their base, and supporters, are so clearly left-wing, economically, culturally and socially. There’s a vast gulf in values between them and the Conservative Party.
It puts off the vast majority of Conservative Party members and voters from even considering that Remaining in the EU could even be vaguely in their interest, or the nation’s interest, and - with the EU having friends like those - shows how suspicious they’d be of any Conservative who said otherwise.
Conservatives for Europe were quite numerous on the march, and several key speakers including Heseltine as the grand finale were well received.
There were many placards castigating the ERG, May and Corbyn, but the marchers were anti-Brexit, not anti-Tory. Of course in the last election a clear majority of 58% voted for non Tories.
The vast numbers of marchers were the demography that was once the bedrock of the Tory party, but have been abandonded by it.
I agree with the last sentence. But there's something far bigger going on there.
30-40 years ago, my peer group of the professional middle-class (save for academics and those really immersed in the public sector) would have been overwhelmingly Conservative.
Today, that isn't the case, and hasn't been for some time. The middle-class have definitively drifted to becoming socially liberal, internationalist, pro-higher taxation, re-distributive, economically soft-left in all other ways, and embrace identity politics with both arms.
This is *not* the case for those over the age of about 50-55, but very much is for those beneath, and is even more pronounced amongst females.
My 7 year old is being taught about “gender neutrality” at school
W.R.T. professional voters, the big shift came under Thatcher/Major. That's when seats like Manchester Withington, Liverpool Wavertree, Newcastle Central, Streatham, Leeds NE and NW, Edinburgh C and S, Birmingham Edgbaston, Brighton Pavilion, Bristol W etc. all swung away from the Conservatives, and never came back. 40 years ago, many of the people on yesterday's March would have been Conservatives. Now, I doubt if even 5% would be.
Working class voters in areas that were hard-hit in the 1980's have proved much more forgiving to the Tories. Almost every ex--mining seat has shifted right.
Where the Conservatives do have a very strong professional vote still is in the Shires, small cities, and big towns. Where it has fallen away is in centres of government and university cities.
To what extent are the changes in those seats due to a mixture of boundary changes and significant underlying demographic changes? Brighton Pavilion was a safe Tory seat when represented by Julian Amery and William Teeling, but I suspect the electorate has changed beyond recognition. Much the same would be true of Liverpool Walton which had been Tory -held until narrowly won by Eric Heffer in 1964.
I'd say it's more down to attitudinal change than demographic change. All the seats I mentioned remain pretty well off.
Brighton as a holiday resort has seen a significant decline over the last 30 years or so - as has Blackpool et al. Hove was Labour lost deposit teriitory at the time Tim Sainsbury managed to see off Des Wilson's Liberal challenge at the November 1973 by-election. There must have been huge social changes in the area.
Brighton and Bristol West are probably the most left wing places in England outside London.
Bristol west these days makes Islington look centrist....probably because most of the inhabitants have relocated from there.
Comments
Well whad'ya know, it turns out the "coup" was a big load of nothing. Tim Shipman got played like a fiddle.
On populism, I think in its usual sense it means "Willing to unscrupulously promise popular things that one knows are unlikely to work out". Peron is the archetype, and Chavez was another - full of reasonable intentions (though Chavez was probably more sincere) and some initial success, but ultimately discredited because the policies didn't actually work.
The Newcastle to Carlisle route is slow, infrequent, unreliable and on antiquated stock.
To get from my local station to Carlisle is usually an hour and 40 for 46 miles involving a change.
There are some direct trains in rush hour. Even these are an hour and 3.
But the problem for President Trump is that the economy is strongest in the States which are least likely to change hands*. He needs Michigan to be top of the economic charts, not Washington state.
* The two exceptions to this rule are Florida and Virginia. And, of course, if President Trump keeps Florida in the Red column then the Democrats job gets that much harder. If I were to make a 2020 forecast, I'd say that a chunk of the Midwest would go Blue again - basically they jobs he promised have not come through, while Florida would stay comfortably Red. If he were to flip Virginia - which is by no means impossible - then he would likely remain President irrespective of what happens in Wisconsin, Michigan and the like.
Your second paragraph encapsulates everything that is wrong with left-wing politics. I am no fan of Peron, but his policies didn’t lead to starvation, 10% of the population going into exile and the return of treatable diseases as the healthcare system collapses, unlike in Corbyn’s beloved Venezuela. What possible relevance does sincerity have?
Please read to the last line, it's special.
https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/local-news/brexit-ferry-protest-plymouth-no-2677855
https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/17523457.oxford-mp-admits-slapping-ex-boyfriend-in-row-over-computer-cable/
I don't find it trivial. I find it wrong that anyone is seeking to defend her. I don't care that she wasn't charged. Domestic violence is wrong whether the perpetrator is male or female.
This should be the end of her career. It probably won't be. But it should be.
We are where we are because the cultural marxists have controlled education for some time.
Most remainers I know are most pissed off about their own loss of FOM - indeed it was very much that argument that the Supreme Court agreed with in Miller. They might never have used it but it was nice to know it was there, like the freedom of the press or that to own a gun for some Americans. Leaving the EU with less loss of the personal rights that came with it would be less objectionable in my view.
The legal position is that they are voting for their candidate. The reality is that they are either voting the way they always vote or are voting as if the party leader were their candidate.
IIRC, Shipman didn’t claim friends of Gove etc among his sources. I suspect he got it from people with less personal skin in the game, Peston has gone to the horses’ mouths (or at least their friends) and got an obvious denial, because cabinet ministers don’t go round blurting they want to depose the boss. Shipman’s thread and the BuzzFeed bit yesterday speak to me of an utter breakdown in cabinet unity and confidentiality, and decapitation strikes me as a very likely tool in the box if TM tries to stick to a straight Noel Edmonds-style choice.
If the plan is for ‘disposable PM to carry out X’, though, I’d favour Lidington or maybe Cox (or, frankly, any other blameless old time server who’ll be happy with retirement or a junior education post in six months). Any leader chosen in those circumstances will be kicked out in six months. The big beasts like Gove/Hunt/Javid will want it for the long-term and I’d imagine would sit out the emergency leader phase.
Now they can't even get that right...
How serious was this slapping that the police had to intervene and mediate anyway? Of course had she been male and her partner female her leadership chances would almost certainly be done for - because the excuse of a strained relationship wouldn't cut much ice particularly as this was done in public place.
Or we apply the law to all.
I will not hold my breath though in the current climate
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/24/supposed-christian-country-try-telling-keepers-public-order/
When you back X on Betfair Exchange, you place a sum with them. So when X happens you get it and your profit back (or zero if it doesn't)
When you lay X on Betfair Exchange you place a larger sum with them, enough for the other guy to get his stake and winnings from you. So when X doesn't happen you get that larger sum plus the other guy's stake (or zero if it does).
I can't remember if Betfair get their profit by skimming off the top or just by the interest they get from holding your cash for a time.
*sort of, there are a few credit accounts, but not for Joe Bloggs.
They all want to avoid responsibility and take over once May has taken all the flak .
And his endless 20 minute rants at the start of each show are just tedious - and its pretty much the same rant about the same topics every day. Still he has his audience - but its not for me.
https://unitetheunion.org/Honda30March
Which is where this discussion came in.
And that's not because of threats, either!
In any event, it is the largest ever Downing Street petition by some margin, and seeing the spinner continually turn round is remarkable.
Now
5,000,070
May can only save her job by crashing the UK out next Friday . Ignoring that under international law the UK remains in the EU until at least 12 April .
These ERG nutjobs are clearly a danger to the country and are so driven by their ideology that they don’t care about anything else .
Well said.
I have some sympathy with the “pass the WA then re-open the future relationship under someone new” line, but I’m not convinced the votes are there for the WA in the short term.
I would have so run with that as a child...
I wish we had her now.
Its surely very unfair the concerns of the 45% were ignored and the entire country was forced to stay? Nearly 70% of those over 70 voted No vs only 38 per cent of 25-29 year olds - how many of the former are still alive so things would be different now etc etc ad nauseum.
Of course the difference was the vote went the 'right' way.
Post 2005 he was writing well argued material about how the Conservative party needed to wake up and smell the coffee.
I don't know what he's been sniffing since.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45952532
I'm not sure it will last though. I worry some future government will regulate out of business sooner rather than later.
What you forget is that she was a skilled politician. Very skilled.
She only lost it post GE1987.
But what a stupid tweet from "The Man in Seat 61" (that OGH has retweeted).
"Image analysis/Met Police now indicating closer to TWO million (have still to fact-check that)."
Actually, why not fact-check first, and then tweet ! Rather than the other way around !
Jeez.