So the petition has reached 500,000 so will need to be debated in Parliament. I wonder if that will be today, tomorrow or Monday as Bercow could prioritise it above everything else.
And that gives everyone a way out - put revoke to a vote and see who actually votes against.
Isn't there a validation process that needs to be carried out to make sure they are real people ?
There is a validation process.
You can be sure it isn't Russian bots. They don't want revoke!
Who knows what goes on in the mind of Vladimir? Revoke could be a good result for him, it might destroy the British Conservative Party and put Comrade Corbyn in power. Brexit is the gift that just keeps giving for the Kremlin, a win-win, whatever the result. He must be mightily pleased!
Vovka doesn't need Corbo he's got the tories straining every sinew to deliver Russia's most important strategic foreign policy goal of the last two decades.
We need to start moving to a long extention and a rethink of the entire process very very quickly. but no one seems to be offering leadership on how to get there.
Last night must have been the last straw, we need to stop this crash, and stop it now. revoke/suspend whatever....
HELP!!!
Sadly enough of you Leavers aren’t worried about the long foretold tempest.
So we’ll crash out next week with No Deal as Dave warned.
I've never wanted a no-deal. but this is getting beyond serious now.
It really is.
I cannot see anything but an EU emergency summit next Thursday confirming no deal exit and a transition period to ease the pain, maybe one or two years
The EU have been warning us at regular intervals that if there's no deal there will be no transition period.
Do you think they are bluffing, or were you not aware of it?
No Deal will kill the Tories. Whoever takes the grumpy-right-populist spot that UKIP used to fill will clean up.
The problem isn't just the blame for letting No Deal happen, which will *mostly* attach to them. It's also for all the specific things that will go wrong that could theoretically have been planned for. There's no way for a government to do something like this, even with good planning and excellent people, and come out of it looking competent. And this government doesn't have good planning and excellent people, to put it mildly.
One thing will unite the nation, from left to right, brexit to remain: The government bollocksed up the implementation.
No Deal will not kill the Tories though, the majority of Tory voters and Leavers back No Deal over Remain. Indeed No Deal will likely kill UKIP beyond a few anti Islam Tommy Robinson types as they have no purpose as they have achieved everything they wanted, it is revoke which could kill the Tories as then UKIP or Farage's new Brexit Party really would clean up, unless the Tories replaced May with a hardline Leaver like Boris, Raab or McVey or Patel
They support the *idea* of No Deal. As Edmund says, even if they still think no deal was the best option, they will probably say "well the chaos was because May didn't plan and wanted to discredit Brexit" or some such.
Yes. "No Deal" to many people is the equivalent of a gesture, sticking two fingers up. It doesn't translate, for many people, into an actual expectation of a new kind of daily life.
If it does, that must be because the gesture has been performed wrong.
We need to start moving to a long extention and a rethink of the entire process very very quickly. but no one seems to be offering leadership on how to get there.
Last night must have been the last straw, we need to stop this crash, and stop it now. revoke/suspend whatever....
HELP!!!
Sadly enough of you Leavers aren’t worried about the long foretold tempest.
So we’ll crash out next week with No Deal as Dave warned.
I've never wanted a no-deal. but this is getting beyond serious now.
Well that’s what was likely to happen the moment Leave won, then amplified by No Deal is better than a bad deal.
Not really. EFTA/Norway is and was always an option, and it would have been a sensible compromise given the vote.
We need to start moving to a long extention and a rethink of the entire process very very quickly. but no one seems to be offering leadership on how to get there.
Last night must have been the last straw, we need to stop this crash, and stop it now. revoke/suspend whatever....
HELP!!!
Sadly enough of you Leavers aren’t worried about the long foretold tempest.
So we’ll crash out next week with No Deal as Dave warned.
I've never wanted a no-deal. but this is getting beyond serious now.
Well that’s what was likely to happen the moment Leave won, then amplified by No Deal is better than a bad deal.
Not really. EFTA/Norway is and was always an option, and it would have been a sensible compromise given the vote.
So the petition has reached 500,000 so will need to be debated in Parliament. I wonder if that will be today, tomorrow or Monday as Bercow could prioritise it above everything else.
And that gives everyone a way out - put revoke to a vote and see who actually votes against.
Isn't there a validation process that needs to be carried out to make sure they are real people ?
There is a validation process.
You can be sure it isn't Russian bots. They don't want revoke!
Tbf I think they want chaos which several more years of rancorous can kicking would provide. On that basis the Russian bot operations seem several orders of magnitude more efficient than their poisoning defectors set up.
We really don't need Russian assistance to have years of rancorous can-kicking and chaos. We are jolly good at that without any external factors required.
We need to start moving to a long extention and a rethink of the entire process very very quickly. but no one seems to be offering leadership on how to get there.
Last night must have been the last straw, we need to stop this crash, and stop it now. revoke/suspend whatever....
HELP!!!
Sadly enough of you Leavers aren’t worried about the long foretold tempest.
So we’ll crash out next week with No Deal as Dave warned.
I've never wanted a no-deal. but this is getting beyond serious now.
Well that’s what was likely to happen the moment Leave won, then amplified by No Deal is better than a bad deal.
Not really. EFTA/Norway is and was always an option, and it would have been a sensible compromise given the vote.
The Norway option inconsistent was inconsistent with the Leave campaign.
Everyone has arrived in the office and if they didn't know about it before someone has told them now.
And as stated earlier if this was a project you would be binning it and starting again which is what Revoke is...
"Revoke" is not starting again. It's confirming that the political class was lying to the voters and debasing democracy.
Precisely, and then we can have a full public inquiry.
Not quite. Revoke leaves us where we currently are and would allow A50 to be invoked again after courts rule it illegal or after a new referendum or election...
Or we leave, after an election agree to return and end up in Schengen with the Euro and various other items.
All revoke shows is that people (May) screwed up but we had enough common sense not to drive over the cliff.
I've never said the EU deal is popular, In fact, I've said it's unpopular, and it may struggle to beat a No-deal scenario, but that's all it has to do.
It's High Noon, and the MPs are in the Gary Cooper role. Mrs May has no gun, she's watching from the saloon. They won't blame her if the gunman shoots Gary full of holes. Hang on, this analogy going too far, but you see what I mean.
There is a lot of wishful thinking on the Labour side that a no-deal Brexit will decimate the Tory party for a generation. That may be the case, but nothing is certain. It was seen as a given that the public opposed austerity and would punish the Conservatives harshly for it in the mid-2010s, but enough people believed the Tory narrative that this didn't happen.
So, nothing has fundamentally changed. If Parliament wishes to bring about any outcome other than the May Deal or No Deal, it must find the political will and the organizational ability to replace her as PM. That was the situation a year ago, a month ago, a week ago, and it remains the case today. Where's my money going? Nowhere for now. I've closed out almost all of my Betfair positions on Brexit markets and my modest winnings (mainly from laying No Deal and REF2 and backing 2019 GE) are resting up in my sock drawer.
We need to start moving to a long extention and a rethink of the entire process very very quickly. but no one seems to be offering leadership on how to get there.
Last night must have been the last straw, we need to stop this crash, and stop it now. revoke/suspend whatever....
HELP!!!
Sadly enough of you Leavers aren’t worried about the long foretold tempest.
So we’ll crash out next week with No Deal as Dave warned.
I've never wanted a no-deal. but this is getting beyond serious now.
Well that’s what was likely to happen the moment Leave won, then amplified by No Deal is better than a bad deal.
Not really. EFTA/Norway is and was always an option, and it would have been a sensible compromise given the vote.
The Norway option inconsistent was inconsistent with the Leave campaign.
The leave campaign was inconsistent full stop (as was the remain campaign). It's what you make it.
We need to start moving to a long extention and a rethink of the entire process very very quickly. but no one seems to be offering leadership on how to get there.
Last night must have been the last straw, we need to stop this crash, and stop it now. revoke/suspend whatever....
HELP!!!
Sadly enough of you Leavers aren’t worried about the long foretold tempest.
So we’ll crash out next week with No Deal as Dave warned.
I've never wanted a no-deal. but this is getting beyond serious now.
Well that’s what was likely to happen the moment Leave won, then amplified by No Deal is better than a bad deal.
Not really. EFTA/Norway is and was always an option, and it would have been a sensible compromise given the vote.
The Norway option inconsistent was inconsistent with the Leave campaign.
EFTA membership is also inconsistent with a customs union, which in practice we would need.
So how’s that building of a consensus for Brexit going?
It's close as to whether the revoke petition becomes the most signed (on the official online platform) by 9am.
a revoke can costs two tricks IIRC.. an unwelcome outcome
At the moment we're in seven spades redoubled with a void in the suit and partner has just put down Jxx.
This is what happens when you use the blackwood convention. It always ends in tears.
That’s why Sliding Gerber is much more effective at getting to a palatable outcome
Gerber is the worst convention around for suit contracts- far better to cue-bid: As for Blackwood, I think the correct response is 5 - diamonds (no aces up our sleeve). In America they are trying for No Trump so Gerber is still an option.
(An established revoke costs two tricks if the revoke card won the trick e.g. by Trumping when holding a card in the suit and then winning a subsequent trick. At the moment the revoke is not yet established - which means it can be corrected although it will result in a major penalty (card) at the polls - EBU TD
Not really. EFTA/Norway is and was always an option, and it would have been a sensible compromise given the vote.
I've been saying that for years now. It seems blindingly obvious to me that whatever side of the fence people sit, or sat, on the EU referendum, that for most people the economic/trade side of the EU is seen as a good thing, and the political/social side is seen as if not actually bad at least as less of a good thing.
EFTA (or a concoction that is much the same) has always seemed to me to be a reasonable fit for the UK, and something most people would be relatively happy with.
There is a lot of wishful thinking on the Labour side that a no-deal Brexit will decimate the Tory party for a generation. That may be the case, but nothing is certain. It was seen as a given that the public opposed austerity and would punish the Conservatives harshly for it in the mid-2010s, but enough people believed the Tory narrative that this didn't happen.
The Tories had the easy alibi of blaming the previous Labour government. There's no such easy alibi this time.
There is a lot of wishful thinking on the Labour side that a no-deal Brexit will decimate the Tory party for a generation. That may be the case, but nothing is certain. It was seen as a given that the public opposed austerity and would punish the Conservatives harshly for it in the mid-2010s, but enough people believed the Tory narrative that this didn't happen.
Indeed.
Predictions of parties being out (or in) power for a generation rarely age well.
I've never said the EU deal is popular, In fact, I've said it's unpopular, and it may struggle to beat a No-deal scenario, but that's all it has to do.
It's High Noon, and the MPs are in the Gary Cooper role. Mrs May has no gun, she's watching from the saloon. They won't blame her if the gunman shoots Gary full of holes. Hang on, this analogy going too far, but you see what I mean.
No, I simply disagree.
Where we are is a direct result of May's actions to a much greater extent than Parliament's behaviour. Parliament is hardly blameless - and Corbyn especially - but May has kept the whole process away from Parliament as a deliberate policy.
She might convince some that she's just some sort of innocent bystander, but it's not a convincing line.
There’s plenty of scope for blame all around. The Prime Minister has to take prime responsibility.
But you'll have to accept your share, Alastair.
I’ve spent most of the last three years giving helpful advice to Leavers and being roundly abused for the most part. It’s a thankless task.
You should perhaps review your posts of the last three years. An independent observer might reach a different conclusion
I may not have been wholly serious, but I have consistently pointed out to Leavers that they need to take on the wilder fantasies of their extremist brothers in arms and that they need to think about forging a consensus rather than grinding Remainers into the dust.
Both those bits of advice were ignored but Leavers would be in a far stronger position today if they had taken them.
'All revoke shows is that people (May) screwed up but we had enough common sense not to drive over the cliff. '
Yes, if Revoke is presented and perceived in that way, it's probably the best way forward from here, and certainly better than driving over the cliff to see how bad the drop is.
The comments here are no different to MPs thinking. A mixture of wishful thinking, blame other people, explain how the poster would do it differently. The cleverest person in the room syndrome is as alive here as it is in Westminster.
Not really. EFTA/Norway is and was always an option, and it would have been a sensible compromise given the vote.
I've been saying that for years now. It seems blindingly obvious to me that whatever side of the fence people sit, or sat, on the EU referendum, that for most people the economic/trade side of the EU is seen as a good thing, and the political/social side is seen as if not actually bad at least as less of a good thing.
EFTA (or a concoction that is much the same) has always seemed to me to be a reasonable fit for the UK, and something most people would be relatively happy with.
How we get there is the dificult bit.
Indeed. Problem is the EFTA members might not want us, and who could blame them?!
There is a lot of wishful thinking on the Labour side that a no-deal Brexit will decimate the Tory party for a generation. That may be the case, but nothing is certain. It was seen as a given that the public opposed austerity and would punish the Conservatives harshly for it in the mid-2010s, but enough people believed the Tory narrative that this didn't happen.
Indeed.
Predictions of parties being out (or in) power for a generation rarely age well.
Probably reviewing and removing the signatures which originated from North Korea, the Vatican, and South Georgia! All you need is a VPN, an email address, any UK postcode and claim you are resident in the UK or a UK citizen (which doesn't necessarily mean you have the right to vote in referendums of course) and you can sign up - a gift to the bots!
Please spare us from any more of these silly petitions which are easily open to abuse!
"Parliamentary authorities have removed around 77,000 allegedly fake signatures from an online petition which calls for a re-run of the Brexit referendum - with hackers taking responsibility for adding thousands of counterfeit names/
Some 39,411 residents of Vatican City, home to Pope Francis, appeared to have signed the petition by Sunday morning, despite the tiny city state having a total population of just 800.
In isolationist North Korea, one of the least internet-connected countries in the world, 23,778 people had apparently gone online to express their frustration at the UK’s decision to quit the EU.
Located 800 miles south east of the Falklands, and with a permanent population of zero, the South Atlantic British Overseas Territory of South Georgia and the Sandwich Islands was responsible for more than 3,000 signatures"
There’s plenty of scope for blame all around. The Prime Minister has to take prime responsibility.
But you'll have to accept your share, Alastair.
I’ve spent most of the last three years giving helpful advice to Leavers and being roundly abused for the most part. It’s a thankless task.
You should perhaps review your posts of the last three years. An independent observer might reach a different conclusion
I may not have been wholly serious, but I have consistently pointed out to Leavers that they need to take on the wilder fantasies of their extremist brothers in arms and that they need to think about forging a consensus rather than grinding Remainers into the dust.
Both those bits of advice were ignored but Leavers would be in a far stronger position today if they had taken them.
I’ve wanted to do that all along.
But your posts saying I had the Mark of Cain upon me for campaigning for Leave pissed me off, so I threw mud back.
How you say it is as important as what you say*.
(*And, yes, I realise I don’t wholly smell of roses in this regard either.)
So the petition has reached 500,000 so will need to be debated in Parliament. I wonder if that will be today, tomorrow or Monday as Bercow could prioritise it above everything else.
And that gives everyone a way out - put revoke to a vote and see who actually votes against.
Isn't there a validation process that needs to be carried out to make sure they are real people ?
With 500,000 people the odds of 100,000 not being real is minimal especially given it's going to be 1million by close of play today.
I disagree, the sign up speed esp, over night was unusually fast. It was indicative of people outside the UK or automated sign ups. 200,000 between midnight and 08:00am isn't normal ?
Yawn. Anything to discredit. I’ve been sent the link by 4 different people this morning, all not normally engaged by politics.
Yawn:Left-wingers use social media much more than right wingers. (and we won't mention twitter/ facebook removing conservative accounts on the least pretext).
No Deal will kill the Tories. Whoever takes the grumpy-right-populist spot that UKIP used to fill will clean up.
The problem isn't just the blame for letting No Deal happen, which will *mostly* attach to them. It's also for all the specific things that will go wrong that could theoretically have been planned for. There's no way for a government to do something like this, even with good planning and excellent people, and come out of it looking competent. And this government doesn't have good planning and excellent people, to put it mildly.
One thing will unite the nation, from left to right, brexit to remain: The government bollocksed up the implementation.
No Deal will not kill the Tories though, the majority of Tory voters and Leavers back No Deal over Remain. Indeed No Deal will likely kill UKIP beyond a few anti Islam Tommy Robinson types as they have no purpose as they have achieved everything they wanted, it is revoke which could kill the Tories as then UKIP or Farage's new Brexit Party really would clean up, unless the Tories replaced May with a hardline Leaver like Boris, Raab or McVey or Patel
A large proportion of those supporting no-deal think it will be relatively painless, and that the warnings of that are a politically created mirage. If we crash out, the inaccuracy of that will fairly quickly become obvious, and both the Tories and the exceptionalist nationalism the'y're now identified with will take decades to recover.
The majority of Leavers and the majority of Tories who back No Deal are as ideological and fanatical about it as Nats are about an independent Scotland, nothing will change their mind, that still gives the Tories a lot of votes even if most of the country now prefers Remain or soft Brexit.
It is revoke which would see much of the Tory Leave vote defect en masse to Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIP unless the Tories got a hardline Leaver as leader quickly
You are right about Revoke, but the Party would recover in due course. I'm less sure about No Deal. If it turns out bad, the Party may never recover.
Of course if No Deal turns out just dandy, nobody has a problem.
The Tories would likely be overtaken under Revoke by the Brexit Party and never get back in power again unless taken over by the latter or unless a hardline Leaver took over.
No Deal is just the equivalent of the protectionism the Tories pursued after Corn Laws repeal, they eventually got back in under Disraeli
Mr. P, when people raise 'revoke' I wonder if they mean by the Commons, or via a second referendum. Because those are entirely different kettles of monkeys.
I think many on here are happy for party politics to take precedence. Perhaps you're thinking too deeply.
From the outside, it's much simpler. The PM, a Remainer thrust into the role of negotiating Brexit, comes back with a deal from the EU. It's not great, but all there is on offer. The MPs who had no intention of honouring their promises, have been voting against everything to stop progress.
The PM, in a valedictory speech, tells the truth, and the MPs react like the spoilt, lying children they are. She may be incompetent (she is), not the brightest (but not in Jezza's class as dumb), but she's straightforward and honest for once.
Like slugs sprinkled with salt, the MPs thrash around, spitting defiance. At the end, she has exposed their failings and they don't like it. Schadenfreude with a vengeance.
+1
Don’t see how May positioning herself as a latter day Charles I helps matters. Why insult the people you need to vote for you?
It hasn't helped, but that some mps are acting like they might have considered voting for the deal but not now is pathetic and irresponsible. If they dont want to do so there are much better reasons. And no, may being pathetic and irresponsible doesn't make them being so ok.
Lots of MP's have said they might vote for the WA, before finding reasons not to.
I haven’t seen any leadership (which means taking a risk, and putting yourself out there subject to attack from many sides) from any MP on this issue. May may have very serious flaws (well, we know she does) but she’s the only one who has tried.
They want someone else to make the first move, and to avoid responsibility.
No Deal will kill the Tories. Whoever takes the grumpy-right-populist spot that UKIP used to fill will clean up.
The problem isn't just the blame for letting No Deal happen, which will *mostly* attach to them. It's also for all the specific things that will go wrong that could theoretically have been planned for. There's no way for a government to do something like this, even with good planning and excellent people, and come out of it looking competent. And this government doesn't have good planning and excellent people, to put it mildly.
One thing will unite the nation, from left to right, brexit to remain: The government bollocksed up the implementation.
No Deal will not kill the Tories though, the majority of Tory voters and Leavers back No Deal over Remain. Indeed No Deal will likely kill UKIP beyond a few anti Islam Tommy Robinson types as they have no purpose as they have achieved everything they wanted, it is revoke which could kill the Tories as then UKIP or Farage's new Brexit Party really would clean up, unless the Tories replaced May with a hardline Leaver like Boris, Raab or McVey or Patel
They support the *idea* of No Deal. As Edmund says, even if they still think no deal was the best option, they will probably say "well the chaos was because May didn't plan and wanted to discredit Brexit" or some such.
They will still back No Deal though and Brexit, they are fanatics, fanatics never compromise
Lord knows May has made many mistakes in her efforts to deliver Brexit. And the shambles continues. It was however always an impossible task. Meanwhile spare me the faux outrage of the Nandy/Cooper/Philips brigade of 'strong' Labour wimmin who sit silently in a party led by a terrorist apologist who prefers Maduro and Hezbollah to Umunna. Their moral compass is in need of a serious reset.
Those thinking that the drive to revoke is all just a London coffeehouse matter need to consider why Leave is now apparently falling well behind Remain in any hypothetical referendum. Britain looks set to Brexit at precisely the point when the idea is falling into disrepute for large numbers of people.
There is a lot of wishful thinking on the Labour side that a no-deal Brexit will decimate the Tory party for a generation. That may be the case, but nothing is certain. It was seen as a given that the public opposed austerity and would punish the Conservatives harshly for it in the mid-2010s, but enough people believed the Tory narrative that this didn't happen.
Indeed.
Predictions of parties being out (or in) power for a generation rarely age well.
We need to start moving to a long extention and a rethink of the entire process very very quickly. but no one seems to be offering leadership on how to get there.
Last night must have been the last straw, we need to stop this crash, and stop it now. revoke/suspend whatever....
HELP!!!
Sadly enough of you Leavers aren’t worried about the long foretold tempest.
So we’ll crash out next week with No Deal as Dave warned.
I've never wanted a no-deal. but this is getting beyond serious now.
Well that’s what was likely to happen the moment Leave won, then amplified by No Deal is better than a bad deal.
Not really. EFTA/Norway is and was always an option, and it would have been a sensible compromise given the vote.
The Norway option inconsistent was inconsistent with the Leave campaign.
EFTA membership is also inconsistent with a customs union, which in practice we would need.
For Northern Ireland only. Now EU migration to the UK has fallen EFTA is an option that reflects the narrow 52% Leave 48% Remain vote
Probably reviewing and removing the signatures which originated from North Korea, the Vatican, and South Georgia! All you need is a VPN, an email address, any UK postcode and claim you are resident in the UK or a UK citizen (which doesn't necessarily mean you have the right to vote in referendums of course) and you can sign up - a gift to the bots!
Please spare us from any more of these silly petitions which are easily open to abuse!
"Parliamentary authorities have removed around 77,000 allegedly fake signatures from an online petition which calls for a re-run of the Brexit referendum - with hackers taking responsibility for adding thousands of counterfeit names/
Some 39,411 residents of Vatican City, home to Pope Francis, appeared to have signed the petition by Sunday morning, despite the tiny city state having a total population of just 800.
In isolationist North Korea, one of the least internet-connected countries in the world, 23,778 people had apparently gone online to express their frustration at the UK’s decision to quit the EU.
Located 800 miles south east of the Falklands, and with a permanent population of zero, the South Atlantic British Overseas Territory of South Georgia and the Sandwich Islands was responsible for more than 3,000 signatures"
Thank you, Brendan, that is very helpful.
It will be interesting to see how many fly in from N Korea, the Vatican, and The Falklands for Saturday's demonstration.
Those thinking that the drive to revoke is all just a London coffeehouse matter need to consider why Leave is now apparently falling well behind Remain in any hypothetical referendum. Britain looks set to Brexit at precisely the point when the idea is falling into disrepute for large numbers of people.
There is a lot of wishful thinking on the Labour side that a no-deal Brexit will decimate the Tory party for a generation. That may be the case, but nothing is certain. It was seen as a given that the public opposed austerity and would punish the Conservatives harshly for it in the mid-2010s, but enough people believed the Tory narrative that this didn't happen.
The Tories had the easy alibi of blaming the previous Labour government. There's no such easy alibi this time.
Pro-May narratives: "Labour should have supported the deal instead of playing party politics" "Parliament ran down the clock by not backing MV1 or MV2"
ERG-type narratives: "The EU wouldn't let us get a decent deal" "Remainers sabotaged our negotiation attempts" "Remainers stopped us preparing properly"
There is a lot of wishful thinking on the Labour side that a no-deal Brexit will decimate the Tory party for a generation. That may be the case, but nothing is certain. It was seen as a given that the public opposed austerity and would punish the Conservatives harshly for it in the mid-2010s, but enough people believed the Tory narrative that this didn't happen.
Indeed.
Predictions of parties being out (or in) power for a generation rarely age well.
Extend: 1.22 Revoke: 3.65 Leave on time: 4.8 Leave with May still PM: 2.44 Leave before a General Election: 1.86 Deal to pass at “3rd Meaningful Vote”: 2.98 Leave in Q2, 2019: 2.98
So the petition has reached 500,000 so will need to be debated in Parliament. I wonder if that will be today, tomorrow or Monday as Bercow could prioritise it above everything else.
And that gives everyone a way out - put revoke to a vote and see who actually votes against.
Isn't there a validation process that needs to be carried out to make sure they are real people ?
With 500,000 people the odds of 100,000 not being real is minimal especially given it's going to be 1million by close of play today.
It's amusing to see the reaction these petitions get. A year or so back, leavers were in a froth over such a petition and giving breathless updates every hour or so, whilst remainers were downplaying it. Now the situation is reversed.
You assume I'm a remainer - I'm more restart this project with an actual plan with an agreed end point in mind.
Extend: 1.22 Revoke: 3.65 Leave on time: 4.8 Leave with May still PM: 2.44 Leave before a General Election: 1.86 Deal to pass at “3rd Meaningful Vote”: 2.98 Leave in Q2, 2019: 2.98
Extend: 1.22 Revoke: 3.65 Leave on time: 4.8 Leave with May still PM: 2.44 Leave before a General Election: 1.86 Deal to pass at “3rd Meaningful Vote”: 2.98 Leave in Q2, 2019: 2.98
Blimey. Revoke rated as more likely than Leave on Time?
There is a lot of wishful thinking on the Labour side that a no-deal Brexit will decimate the Tory party for a generation. That may be the case, but nothing is certain. It was seen as a given that the public opposed austerity and would punish the Conservatives harshly for it in the mid-2010s, but enough people believed the Tory narrative that this didn't happen.
Indeed.
Predictions of parties being out (or in) power for a generation rarely age well.
Extend: 1.22 Revoke: 3.65 Leave on time: 4.8 Leave with May still PM: 2.44 Leave before a General Election: 1.86 Deal to pass at “3rd Meaningful Vote”: 2.98 Leave in Q2, 2019: 2.98
MPs vote down the deal in the hope the EU is bluffing and will grant an extended A50. May goes, the EU quietly make the extension dependent on a second referendum (they like that sort of thing). New PM agrees, Project Fear threatens birds will fall out the sky, and a 52 - 48 Remain win is taken as final.
Remain voters are nonplussed when nothing is ever the same again.
The petition map is very interesting. My own pro-Leave constituency of Tewkesbury has a surprisingly large number of signatories, for example, which may give the Ultra-Leave Mp Laurence Robertson food for thought.
Sadly, the map does not show us the number of votes from N Korea, The Vatican and The Falklands, but interesting nonetheless.
Extend: 1.22 Revoke: 3.65 Leave on time: 4.8 Leave with May still PM: 2.44 Leave before a General Election: 1.86 Deal to pass at “3rd Meaningful Vote”: 2.98 Leave in Q2, 2019: 2.98
I have no idea !
Bloody hell Pulpstar, if you have no idea what are the rest of us supposed to do?
We need to start moving to a long extention and a rethink of the entire process very very quickly. but no one seems to be offering leadership on how to get there.
Last night must have been the last straw, we need to stop this crash, and stop it now. revoke/suspend whatever....
HELP!!!
Sadly enough of you Leavers aren’t worried about the long foretold tempest.
So we’ll crash out next week with No Deal as Dave warned.
I've never wanted a no-deal. but this is getting beyond serious now.
It really is.
I cannot see anything but an EU emergency summit next Thursday confirming no deal exit and a transition period to ease the pain, maybe one or two years
The EU have been warning us at regular intervals that if there's no deal there will be no transition period.
Do you think they are bluffing, or were you not aware of it?
Of course there were not bluffing. But they have said today they will meet next Thursday to resolve issues and of course no deal happens next day
There is a lot of wishful thinking on the Labour side that a no-deal Brexit will decimate the Tory party for a generation. That may be the case, but nothing is certain. It was seen as a given that the public opposed austerity and would punish the Conservatives harshly for it in the mid-2010s, but enough people believed the Tory narrative that this didn't happen.
Indeed.
Predictions of parties being out (or in) power for a generation rarely age well.
LOL, it’s been a while since someone posted that link.
Looking back its interesting to remember how the political mood has changed.
Summer 2007 - Peak Brown Summer 2008 - Peak Cameron Spring 2010 - Peak Clegg Summer 2012 - Peak Miliband Summer 2015 - Peak Osborne Spring 2017 - Peak May Summer 2017 - Peak Corbyn
All of them with predictions that the political course was now set for a generation.
February 2019 - Peak TIGs
"All political lives end in failure". The unusual feature of the present moment is that there are so few of current significance who have not already failed. Spring 2019 seems to be Peak Nobody.
MPs vote down the deal in the hope the EU is bluffing and will grant an extended A50. May goes, the EU quietly make the extension dependent on a second referendum (they like that sort of thing). New PM agrees, Project Fear threatens birds will fall out the sky, and a 52 - 48 Remain win is taken as final.
Remain voters are nonplussed when nothing is ever the same again.
The idea that simply staying in the EU resolves the issue is perhaps the biggest delusion of all, even the ERG fanatics aren't quite that nuts.
Revoking isn't that simple. Even if parliament voted for it (which it wont) it's the PM who has to do it using the royal prerogative. She could stall it out, there's no time to remove her if she simply refuses to revoke after a vote on (say) Thursday.
' The monthly fall in food stores was the strongest decline since December 2016 at negative 1.5%, reversing the increase of 0.9% in January 2019, with food retailers suggesting that “getting back to normal” following the January sales had contributed to this fall. '
We need to start moving to a long extention and a rethink of the entire process very very quickly. but no one seems to be offering leadership on how to get there.
Last night must have been the last straw, we need to stop this crash, and stop it now. revoke/suspend whatever....
HELP!!!
Sadly enough of you Leavers aren’t worried about the long foretold tempest.
So we’ll crash out next week with No Deal as Dave warned.
Unless it's sorted tomorrow we crash out next week (as we discover unexpected stumbling blocks)..
I think that's right. Is there not some Statutory Instrument that has to be laid on Monday if there is to be an extension? Time's up folks.
If the deal is rejected, I think the EU will offer a choice of long delay or no deal. There will be a Parliamentary majority for the former, but whetherr it can be achieved...?
Long deal depends on the UK Parliament laying legislation by 11th April. I cannot see so no long deal
So you think it will be no deal now? You always said that was impossible.
So how can the PM engineer a single Commons vote to mean deal or no deal, without either Bercow sticking his oar in or a group of MPs amending it to be something else?
The Labour Party has been voting against the Deal for party political reasons rather than because they honestly oppose it, so in that sense Mrs May is right to blame MPs in the way she has.
That’s not true. The fact people around May believe that is one of the reasons she is in so much trouble.
She gets away with it because Corbyn storms out of a meeting' because he doesn't like Ummuna.
In fact I think Corbyn has got away with it a bit. In normal circumstances such behavior would have exposed him to widespread national ridicule, but he was upstaged by May's extraordinary performance in front of the lectern in Downing Street.
You're right that it isn't the front page news it would have been but though a small item it's been repeated on just about every news bulletin . These slow burn stories are often the ones that stick
PS and as Rochdale P points out being able to talk to the IRA and Hamas but not Umunna lacks credibility
MPs vote down the deal in the hope the EU is bluffing and will grant an extended A50. May goes, the EU quietly make the extension dependent on a second referendum (they like that sort of thing). New PM agrees, Project Fear threatens birds will fall out the sky, and a 52 - 48 Remain win is taken as final.
Remain voters are nonplussed when nothing is ever the same again.
What sort of new PM would do that? Do you mean Jez or another Tory?
So how can the PM engineer a single Commons vote to mean deal or no deal, without either Bercow sticking his oar in or a group of MPs amending it to be something else?
She can't the best plan would be to use the petition to vote on Revoke and see how it plays out...
We still have 3 options and we need one explicitly removed..
We need to start moving to a long extention and a rethink of the entire process very very quickly. but no one seems to be offering leadership on how to get there.
Last night must have been the last straw, we need to stop this crash, and stop it now. revoke/suspend whatever....
HELP!!!
Sadly enough of you Leavers aren’t worried about the long foretold tempest.
So we’ll crash out next week with No Deal as Dave warned.
Unless it's sorted tomorrow we crash out next week (as we discover unexpected stumbling blocks)..
I think that's right. Is there not some Statutory Instrument that has to be laid on Monday if there is to be an extension? Time's up folks.
If the deal is rejected, I think the EU will offer a choice of long delay or no deal. There will be a Parliamentary majority for the former, but whetherr it can be achieved...?
Long deal depends on the UK Parliament laying legislation by 11th April. I cannot see so no long deal
So you think it will be no deal now? You always said that was impossible.
There's a couple of reasons I doubt the analysis that May's speech will play well to the public. Firstly, from a purely performance perspective, it was really weird. Like, bizarre. It was like one of those challenges they give actors in auditions to push them outside their comfort zone- "read this speech like it's a fairytale, but also really sarcastically". The gut reaction to it is going to be "wtf was that? Isn't she supposed to be PM?"
Secondly, I agree that if you approach the speech as somebody who already blames parliament entirely and always gives May the benefit of the doubt, then the message was good. But that's not much of an accomplished, and also not the default stance most people will have. Imagine yourself in the shoes of somebody who thinks both parliament and May share the blame to some extent. Then it just sounds pathetic and immature, like a child asked about a broken vase who immediately launches into at explanation of why it was everyone's fault except their own. People want leadership or reassurance, not "I didn't touch it last!"
Extend: 1.22 Revoke: 3.65 Leave on time: 4.8 Leave with May still PM: 2.44 Leave before a General Election: 1.86 Deal to pass at “3rd Meaningful Vote”: 2.98 Leave in Q2, 2019: 2.98
I have no idea !
Bloody hell Pulpstar, if you have no idea what are the rest of us supposed to do?
My prefferred solution yesterday was for May to reach across and find Corbyn's mythical PD Customs Unicorn, but he's more concerned with the Chief Tigger Chuka's treachery ! So barring that I'd like the deal to pass, but it doesn't have the numbers. The choice as I predicted is betwixt betrayal (Revocation) and ruin (No deal). In extremis, I'd prefer betrayal as it means we'll still be economically fine but it's a horrendous set of options.
Blimey. Revoke rated as more likely than Leave on Time?
Still don't see how we get there.
The Revoke price refers to at any time. So, an emergency Revoke to avoid No Deal, or a Revoke in a year's time following a Remain win in REF2, both settle as winners.
The Labour Party has been voting against the Deal for party political reasons rather than because they honestly oppose it, so in that sense Mrs May is right to blame MPs in the way she has.
That’s not true. The fact people around May believe that is one of the reasons she is in so much trouble.
She gets away with it because Corbyn storms out of a meeting' because he doesn't like Ummuna.
In fact I think Corbyn has got away with it a bit. In normal circumstances such behavior would have exposed him to widespread national ridicule, but he was upstaged by May's extraordinary performance in front of the lectern in Downing Street.
You're right that it isn't the front page news it would have been but though a small item it's been repeated on just about every news bulletin . These slow burn stories are often the ones that stick
He's also in Europe today, doing an impression of Cameron turning up in Georgia as LOTO, making a fool of himself
It will be interesting to see how many fly in from N Korea, the Vatican, and The Falklands for Saturday's demonstration."
That first petition for a second referendum got over 3 million signatures - the weekend after we voted to leave. And 3 years on we haven't had a second referendum. Which perhaps shows how much impact they have. I merely point out that they can be easily hacked and manipulated - the reality emerging long after the headlines and the media push (its getting plenty of free promotion!) let alone the twitterati.
Hugh Grant has for example signed it today to save us from a national emergency!
As for Saturday the entitled white middle classes (the last event was arguably the least diverse crowd I have seen for a while in the capital) of London and the Home Counties will no doubt vacate their million pound plus houses en masse to lecture the 'plebs' again that they got it wrong and to stop complaining about their lot (as life is just dandy for them). Add in a fair proportion of the 1.5 million EU citizens in the capital (who don't have a vote anyway in referendums and national elections) and I have no doubt there will be a big crowd.
And its all certainly well funded - 4 page wrap around in the Standard and leaflets across the capital. Who is funding it all - not 'the Russians' presumably so who cares?!
Please spare us from online petitions and marches - have any of them actually changed anything compared to actual voting in referendums and elections?! They are representative of people who sign petitions and go on marches.
As a counterpoint to the Revoke petition, a group of Leavers have recorded a song called “17 Million F*** Offs” and it’s going to chart in the top 10 tomorrow. https://order-order.com/2019/03/20/17-million-fk-os/
Not a classic musical anthem, but that’s not the point.
So how’s that building of a consensus for Brexit going?
It's close as to whether the revoke petition becomes the most signed (on the official online platform) by 9am.
a revoke can costs two tricks IIRC.. an unwelcome outcome
At the moment we're in seven spades redoubled with a void in the suit and partner has just put down Jxx.
This is what happens when you use the blackwood convention. It always ends in tears.
That’s why Sliding Gerber is much more effective at getting to a palatable outcome
Gerber is the worst convention around for suit contracts- far better to cue-bid: As for Blackwood, I think the correct response is 5 - diamonds (no aces up our sleeve). In America they are trying for No Trump so Gerber is still an option.
(An established revoke costs two tricks if the revoke card won the trick e.g. by Trumping when holding a card in the suit and then winning a subsequent trick. At the moment the revoke is not yet established - which means it can be corrected although it will result in a major penalty (card) at the polls - EBU TD
I would have thought that Baroness Blackwood would be in favour of playing the existing Deal rather than a revoke.
So the petition has reached 500,000 so will need to be debated in Parliament. I wonder if that will be today, tomorrow or Monday as Bercow could prioritise it above everything else.
And that gives everyone a way out - put revoke to a vote and see who actually votes against.
Isn't there a validation process that needs to be carried out to make sure they are real people ?
With 500,000 people the odds of 100,000 not being real is minimal especially given it's going to be 1million by close of play today.
I disagree, the sign up speed esp, over night was unusually fast. It was indicative of people outside the UK or automated sign ups. 200,000 between midnight and 08:00am isn't normal ?
Yawn. Anything to discredit. I’ve been sent the link by 4 different people this morning, all not normally engaged by politics.
Yawn:Left-wingers use social media much more than right wingers. (and we won't mention twitter/ facebook removing conservative accounts on the least pretext).
Fox is consistently in the top 5 most shared sites on FB, and the Daily Mail, Breitbart and Daily Wire are all in the top 25. Facebook does not censor right wingers...
We need to start moving to a long extention and a rethink of the entire process very very quickly. but no one seems to be offering leadership on how to get there.
Last night must have been the last straw, we need to stop this crash, and stop it now. revoke/suspend whatever....
HELP!!!
Sadly enough of you Leavers aren’t worried about the long foretold tempest.
So we’ll crash out next week with No Deal as Dave warned.
Unless it's sorted tomorrow we crash out next week (as we discover unexpected stumbling blocks)..
I think that's right. Is there not some Statutory Instrument that has to be laid on Monday if there is to be an extension? Time's up folks.
If the deal is rejected, I think the EU will offer a choice of long delay or no deal. There will be a Parliamentary majority for the former, but whetherr it can be achieved...?
Long deal depends on the UK Parliament laying legislation by 11th April. I cannot see so no long deal
So you think it will be no deal now? You always said that was impossible.
As a counterpoint to the Revoke petition, a group of Leavers have recorded a song called “17 Million F*** Offs” and it’s going to chart in the top 10 tomorrow. https://order-order.com/2019/03/20/17-million-fk-os/
Not a classic musical anthem, but that’s not the point.
How many sales/streams does it take to get into the top 10 nowadays?
Comments
Unless you are advocating resubmitting Artice 50 immediately afterwards?
It will return - on 1,413.....
If it does, that must be because the gesture has been performed wrong.
Sadly none of them are in jail. Yet.
Or we leave, after an election agree to return and end up in Schengen with the Euro and various other items.
All revoke shows is that people (May) screwed up but we had enough common sense not to drive over the cliff.
We were given a choice between an unsatisfactory option (Remain) and an inoperable one (Leave).
And all to sort out certain internal problems within the Conservative Party.
I've never said the EU deal is popular, In fact, I've said it's unpopular, and it may struggle to beat a No-deal scenario, but that's all it has to do.
It's High Noon, and the MPs are in the Gary Cooper role. Mrs May has no gun, she's watching from the saloon. They won't blame her if the gunman shoots Gary full of holes. Hang on, this analogy going too far, but you see what I mean.
(An established revoke costs two tricks if the revoke card won the trick e.g. by Trumping when holding a card in the suit and then winning a subsequent trick. At the moment the revoke is not yet established - which means it can be corrected although it will result in a major penalty (card) at the polls - EBU TD
EFTA (or a concoction that is much the same) has always seemed to me to be a reasonable fit for the UK, and something most people would be relatively happy with.
How we get there is the dificult bit.
Predictions of parties being out (or in) power for a generation rarely age well.
Long standing PBers will remember this:
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Where we are is a direct result of May's actions to a much greater extent than Parliament's behaviour.
Parliament is hardly blameless - and Corbyn especially - but May has kept the whole process away from Parliament as a deliberate policy.
She might convince some that she's just some sort of innocent bystander, but it's not a convincing line.
Both those bits of advice were ignored but Leavers would be in a far stronger position today if they had taken them.
'All revoke shows is that people (May) screwed up but we had enough common sense not to drive over the cliff. '
Yes, if Revoke is presented and perceived in that way, it's probably the best way forward from here, and certainly better than driving over the cliff to see how bad the drop is.
Please spare us from any more of these silly petitions which are easily open to abuse!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/concern-as-online-call-for-second-brexit-vote-gains-more-than-39/
"Parliamentary authorities have removed around 77,000 allegedly fake signatures from an online petition which calls for a re-run of the Brexit referendum - with hackers taking responsibility for adding thousands of counterfeit names/
Some 39,411 residents of Vatican City, home to Pope Francis, appeared to have signed the petition by Sunday morning, despite the tiny city state having a total population of just 800.
In isolationist North Korea, one of the least internet-connected countries in the world, 23,778 people had apparently gone online to express their frustration at the UK’s decision to quit the EU.
Located 800 miles south east of the Falklands, and with a permanent population of zero, the South Atlantic British Overseas Territory of South Georgia and the Sandwich Islands was responsible for more than 3,000 signatures"
But your posts saying I had the Mark of Cain upon me for campaigning for Leave pissed me off, so I threw mud back.
How you say it is as important as what you say*.
(*And, yes, I realise I don’t wholly smell of roses in this regard either.)
It's the only option not discussed in Parliament so far and will ensure that MPs definitely own the end result...
No Deal is just the equivalent of the protectionism the Tories pursued after Corn Laws repeal, they eventually got back in under Disraeli
They want someone else to make the first move, and to avoid responsibility.
Summer 2007 - Peak Brown
Summer 2008 - Peak Cameron
Spring 2010 - Peak Clegg
Summer 2012 - Peak Miliband
Summer 2015 - Peak Osborne
Spring 2017 - Peak May
Summer 2017 - Peak Corbyn
All of them with predictions that the political course was now set for a generation.
It will be interesting to see how many fly in from N Korea, the Vatican, and The Falklands for Saturday's demonstration.
"Labour should have supported the deal instead of playing party politics"
"Parliament ran down the clock by not backing MV1 or MV2"
ERG-type narratives:
"The EU wouldn't let us get a decent deal"
"Remainers sabotaged our negotiation attempts"
"Remainers stopped us preparing properly"
Extend: 1.22
Revoke: 3.65
Leave on time: 4.8
Leave with May still PM: 2.44
Leave before a General Election: 1.86
Deal to pass at “3rd Meaningful Vote”: 2.98
Leave in Q2, 2019: 2.98
I think the substantive point remains though.
EDIT Outside Libdems, TIGs, Greens and SNP.
Still don't see how we get there.
Retail sales in February much stronger than forecast.
MPs vote down the deal in the hope the EU is bluffing and will grant an extended A50. May goes, the EU quietly make the extension dependent on a second referendum (they like that sort of thing). New PM agrees, Project Fear threatens birds will fall out the sky, and a 52 - 48 Remain win is taken as final.
Remain voters are nonplussed when nothing is ever the same again.
Sadly, the map does not show us the number of votes from N Korea, The Vatican and The Falklands, but interesting nonetheless.
' The monthly fall in food stores was the strongest decline since December 2016 at negative 1.5%, reversing the increase of 0.9% in January 2019, with food retailers suggesting that “getting back to normal” following the January sales had contributed to this fall. '
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/february2019
PS and as Rochdale P points out being able to talk to the IRA and Hamas but not Umunna lacks credibility
If there are any bots they are doing a good job of dispersing the locations across the country in a very credible way.
Edit/ A very poor showing from Northern Ireland
We still have 3 options and we need one explicitly removed..
Secondly, I agree that if you approach the speech as somebody who already blames parliament entirely and always gives May the benefit of the doubt, then the message was good. But that's not much of an accomplished, and also not the default stance most people will have. Imagine yourself in the shoes of somebody who thinks both parliament and May share the blame to some extent. Then it just sounds pathetic and immature, like a child asked about a broken vase who immediately launches into at explanation of why it was everyone's fault except their own. People want leadership or reassurance, not "I didn't touch it last!"
No deal means cheaper clothes
So barring that I'd like the deal to pass, but it doesn't have the numbers.
The choice as I predicted is betwixt betrayal (Revocation) and ruin (No deal). In extremis, I'd prefer betrayal as it means we'll still be economically fine but it's a horrendous set of options.
"I don't think the artist was thinking very pious thoughts when he painted this."
It will be interesting to see how many fly in from N Korea, the Vatican, and The Falklands for Saturday's demonstration."
That first petition for a second referendum got over 3 million signatures - the weekend after we voted to leave. And 3 years on we haven't had a second referendum. Which perhaps shows how much impact they have. I merely point out that they can be easily hacked and manipulated - the reality emerging long after the headlines and the media push (its getting plenty of free promotion!) let alone the twitterati.
Hugh Grant has for example signed it today to save us from a national emergency!
https://twitter.com/search?q=revoke+article+50+petition&ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^search
As for Saturday the entitled white middle classes (the last event was arguably the least diverse crowd I have seen for a while in the capital) of London and the Home Counties will no doubt vacate their million pound plus houses en masse to lecture the 'plebs' again that they got it wrong and to stop complaining about their lot (as life is just dandy for them). Add in a fair proportion of the 1.5 million EU citizens in the capital (who don't have a vote anyway in referendums and national elections) and I have no doubt there will be a big crowd.
And its all certainly well funded - 4 page wrap around in the Standard and leaflets across the capital. Who is funding it all - not 'the Russians' presumably so who cares?!
Please spare us from online petitions and marches - have any of them actually changed anything compared to actual voting in referendums and elections?! They are representative of people who sign petitions and go on marches.
It was always going to happen.
https://order-order.com/2019/03/20/17-million-fk-os/
Not a classic musical anthem, but that’s not the point.