I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.
Make of that what you will.
Assuming the DUP come on board. How many Labour votes do you think May will need?
Of the irreconcilables from the ERG is it known if there is any sort of Brexit they would vote for apart from No Deal? And if so what its real shape would be?
I think most of them don't actually want to Brexit at all - they would much rather keep themselves pure and spend the rest of their lives ranting about betrayal and treachery rather than have to explain away their role in the disastrous clusterf*ck that Brexit has become. So there's really nothing May can do to get them on board.
Of course they want to Brexit. But they don't want to be held responsible for a never-ending transition. That they have spent £39 billion to achieve. But in that situation, I suspect there will be plenty of blame to go round....
Understandable although the irrevocable damage that will be done to the Tory Party if we don't Brexit at all should perhaps enter their consciousness as well unless perhaps they are of Vulcan extraction.
On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.
What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?
Calling women whores is okay now?
I’m sure parents will have legitimate concerns if there were teachers involved though.
Presumably all those who point to the abuse levelled at other female politicians (Diane Abbott, for instance) will take the same relaxed view?
I cant remember much abuse of Abbott being misogynistic abuse leveled by children who are meant to be at school orchestrated by teachers.
The adults who level such abuse were children once. If we don’t want such abuse to happen then we should not turn a blind eye to children doing it.
Was that not Richard's point?
Indeed. And I agree with him.
Of course, free speech means that people can shout such abuse. Or indeed any abuse they want. But if we don't want our society to be coarsened by endlessly revolting misogynistic, sexist, racist, anti-islamic, anti-semitic etc abuse then we should try and educate our children not to indulge in it and call out adults when they do it.
Asking our politicians to do something about climate change is a good thing. That is not aided by calling a female leader a f***ing wh***. Some of those girls doing it might reflect on why, if and when they find the same abuse hurled at them for no apparent reason - on social media, face to face etc - such stuff happens and why those doing it might think it acceptable.
I'd be very upset, and cross, if I heard my grandchildren calling anyone a f***ing anything. Wh*re possibly if it was justified. And I'd remonstrate with my sons.
Absolutely
We'll have to be careful, Mr G. You and I agree far too often.
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
That would then be followed by a new LOTO and a new Speaker. Plus we know we're getting a new Lib-Dem leader soon.
I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.
Make of that what you will.
Assuming the DUP come on board. How many Labour votes do you think May will need?
I'm sceptical that the DUP will come on board. I don't see what's in it for them. But if they do come on board, Theresa May will need 314+10+5 IND -Y Tory Dissidents + (Y-17) Lab, I think.
So, for example, if there are 40 Tory Dissidents, there will need to be 23 Labour assistants.
If there really are only 30 Labour MPs who might conceivably assist, Theresa May still looks well odds against to me winning any third meaningful vote.
I'd say 30 is pretty much the maximum given that the alternative to May's Deal is now very, very unlikely to be No Deal.
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
I'd say 30 is pretty much the maximum given that the alternative to May's Deal is now very, very unlikely to be No Deal.
That's unclear at the moment (i.e. the bit about no deal being unlikely). It will depend on what the EU is saying about the A50 extension. Although we won't have a definite response until after the MV3 vote (MV4 here we come!), there probably will be some indications.
I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.
Make of that what you will.
Assuming the DUP come on board. How many Labour votes do you think May will need?
Of the irreconcilables from the ERG is it known if there is any sort of Brexit they would vote for apart from No Deal? And if so what its real shape would be?
I think most of them don't actually want to Brexit at all - they would much rather keep themselves pure and spend the rest of their lives ranting about betrayal and treachery rather than have to explain away their role in the disastrous clusterf*ck that Brexit has become. So there's really nothing May can do to get them on board.
Of course they want to Brexit. But they don't want to be held responsible for a never-ending transition. That they have spent £39 billion to achieve. But in that situation, I suspect there will be plenty of blame to go round....
Yes perhaps I didn't make it very clear - they want Brexit in principle but are bitterly opposed to the means by which it might be brought about. Rather as pacifists wanted to defeat the Nazis but were not prepared to fight a war.
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She looks like she's about to collapse in a heap at any moment. She's not a well woman so I doubt she herself wants to go on much longer.
Securing Brexit against all odds and (more or less) managing to keep her Party together would be the perfect moment to bow out and have a rest IMO.
Re the Climate Strike: I don’t know of any pupils from my school that took a day off to go. The previous one coincided with a training day, so I’ve no idea if any went, but I doubt it.
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
That's why they need to insist on May leaving to get her deal through. If she doesn't leave after doing so she is safe for a year or 2.
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She might be useless but even now she is nothing like as unpopular as the Westminster Village like to make out. Not only do we have a surprising Tory lead in the polls but there was a telling silence on QT last night after Julia Hartley-Brewer suggested she should be taken away by the men in white coats.
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She looks like she's about to collapse in a heap at any moment. She's not a well woman so I doubt she herself wants to go on much longer.
Securing Brexit against all odds and (more or less) managing to keep her Party together would be the perfect moment to bow out and have a rest IMO.
That is rather patronising. If she pulls this off she an decide in her own time when to pass on the batten
On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !
Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
A lot of Green activists would like us to go back to the emission levels of 1090.
On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !
Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
A lot of Green activists would like us to go back to the emission levels of 1090.
And more. The world as a whole needs to be looking at reducing to zero net CO2 emissions within the next 50 years or so.
Short of advanced civilisation being wiped out by a nuclear war, that is a fantasy.
Why ?
To be more considered, 50 years is a long time and there could be major technical breakthroughs to make it feasible if the political willpower is there. I don't think that it would happen with current technology unless a gigantic move to nuclear fission is embarked upon. It is a big and complex topic but the world's energy consumption is increasing rapidly and will have to continue to do so even if population stabilises during the 50 years. Eliminating fossil fuels or creating huge new carbon sinks to the extent that net CO2 emissions are 0, whilst increasing living standards? That would make solving the Irish backstop child's play by comparison.
On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.
What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?
Calling women whores is okay now?
I’m sure parents will have legitimate concerns if there were teachers involved though.
Presumably all those who point to the abuse levelled at other female politicians (Diane Abbott, for instance) will take the same relaxed view?
I cant remember much abuse of Abbott being misogynistic abuse leveled by children who are meant to be at school orchestrated by teachers.
The adults who level such abuse were children once. If we don’t want such abuse to happen then we should not turn a blind eye to children doing it.
Was that not Richard's point?
Indeed. And I agree with him.
Of course, free speech means that people can shout such abuse. Or indeed any abuse they want. But if we don't want our society to be coarsened by endlessly revolting misogynistic, sexist, racist, anti-islamic, anti-semitic etc abuse then we should try and educate our children not to indulge in it and call out adults when they do it.
Asking our politicians to do something about climate change is a good thing. That is not aided by calling a female leader a f***ing wh***. Some of those girls doing it might reflect on why, if and when they find the same abuse hurled at them for no apparent reason - on social media, face to face etc - such stuff happens and why those doing it might think it acceptable.
I'd be very upset, and cross, if I heard my grandchildren calling anyone a f***ing anything. Wh*re possibly if it was justified. And I'd remonstrate with my sons.
Absolutely
We'll have to be careful, Mr G. You and I agree far too often.
It is very refreshing for a coming together of sensible minds
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She looks like she's about to collapse in a heap at any moment. She's not a well woman so I doubt she herself wants to go on much longer.
Securing Brexit against all odds and (more or less) managing to keep her Party together would be the perfect moment to bow out and have a rest IMO.
That is rather patronising. If she pulls this off she an decide in her own time when to pass on the batten
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She might be useless but even now she is nothing like as unpopular as the Westminster Village like to make out. Not only do we have a surprising Tory lead in the polls but there was a telling silence on QT last night after Julia Hartley-Brewer suggested she should be taken away by the men in white coats.
She's hardly popular though. I mean she blew a 20% opinion poll lead in four weeks and blew Cameron's majority with it.
We need a majority government to get the trade deal done and frankly Con can't take the risk of having another election with Theresa.
We need a new PM, a new CotE, a new cabinet, a new LOTO, a new Lib-Dem leader and a new Speaker.
Once the WA is secure it's time to get on with it. Refresh and renew.
It's a wonderful example of a non-article: MPs apparently 'furious' about a theoretical future fiscal drag which might or might not happen depending on the performance of the economy and what as-yet-unknown Chancellors decide in the next five budgets.
I expect the next meeting of the Brexit Death Cult aka the ERG will resemble a wake if the DUP agree to back Mays deal .
The DUP have so far acted as the Teflon for them. Barring the lunatic Sammy Wilson the other slightly less lunatic DUP MPs want a deal .
The DUP can’t be the handmaidens of a no deal given their voters want a deal and would prefer a soft Brexit .
The damage to Northern Ireland of a no deal is far worse than for the rest of the UK .
Exactly. The DUP gain absolutely nothing from not backing May's Deal. All they need now is a bit more money and some kind of flimsy legal justification that everyone will forget as soon as the Deal passes.
Here's an odd thought. At the moment our daylight saving dates are aligned to the EU - namely clocks go forward on the last weekend in March and back on the last weekend in October. Will we no longer be required to observe these standard dates when we leave? Do we need to leave the single market (EEA) or just the EU to achieve this?
Of course there may be no political will to make any changes even after leaving but for example Scotland because of their northerly latitude might seek to operate a different timezone to England. Or we might prefer to align DST to the USA where clocks change in the second week of March.
I fail to see the rationale behind the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland putting the clocks forward/back on different days.
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She looks like she's about to collapse in a heap at any moment. She's not a well woman so I doubt she herself wants to go on much longer.
Securing Brexit against all odds and (more or less) managing to keep her Party together would be the perfect moment to bow out and have a rest IMO.
That is rather patronising. If she pulls this off she an decide in her own time when to pass on the batten
Mr G, I think it's baton actually.
Unless he’s thinking of what hatches require in stormy weather....
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She looks like she's about to collapse in a heap at any moment. She's not a well woman so I doubt she herself wants to go on much longer.
Securing Brexit against all odds and (more or less) managing to keep her Party together would be the perfect moment to bow out and have a rest IMO.
That is rather patronising. If she pulls this off she an decide in her own time when to pass on the batten
I see #Esther4Leader is now supporting the Brexit deal she quit the cabinet over.
She's been nobbled by the Shipley Pillock.
My favourite is still David Davis. He probably went into the lobby on Tuesday still expecting the German motor manufacturers to zoom to the rescue. But, no, everything he said about the negotiation process has - surprise, surprise - been shown to be total nonsense. The MP for Winging It Central exposed as the complete fraud he is. Delicious.
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She might be useless but even now she is nothing like as unpopular as the Westminster Village like to make out. Not only do we have a surprising Tory lead in the polls but there was a telling silence on QT last night after Julia Hartley-Brewer suggested she should be taken away by the men in white coats.
She's hardly popular though. I mean she blew a 20% opinion poll lead in four weeks and blew Cameron's majority with it.
We need a majority government to get the trade deal done and frankly Con can't take the risk of having another election with Theresa.
We need a new PM, a new CotE, a new cabinet, a new LOTO, a new Lib-Dem leader and a new Speaker.
Once the WA is secure it's time to get on with it. Refresh and renew.
There is no way that the Tories are going to find a leader more popular than Theresa May. The opposite is true of Labour and Jeremy Corbyn, of course.
I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.
Make of that what you will.
Assuming the DUP come on board. How many Labour votes do you think May will need?
I'm sceptical that the DUP will come on board. I don't see what's in it for them. But if they do come on board, Theresa May will need 314+10+5 IND -Y Tory Dissidents + (Y-17) Lab, I think.
So, for example, if there are 40 Tory Dissidents, there will need to be 23 Labour assistants.
If there really are only 30 Labour MPs who might conceivably assist, Theresa May still looks well odds against to me winning any third meaningful vote.
I'd say 30 is pretty much the maximum given that the alternative to May's Deal is now very, very unlikely to be No Deal.
We could be left with a No Deal/ No BREXIT choice courtesy of the EU refusing any extension or, having been given an extension, we go absolutely nowhere during that period? You think the latter is very, very likely in either such circumstance?
Re the Climate Strike: I don’t know of any pupils from my school that took a day off to go. The previous one coincided with a training day, so I’ve no idea if any went, but I doubt it.
Children have little more than a superficial understanding of anything. I refuse to be lectured to by them. People would not accept a childrens march for greater immigration control and a more aggressive foreign policy, why would people accept this?
Here's an odd thought. At the moment our daylight saving dates are aligned to the EU - namely clocks go forward on the last weekend in March and back on the last weekend in October. Will we no longer be required to observe these standard dates when we leave? Do we need to leave the single market (EEA) or just the EU to achieve this?
Of course there may be no political will to make any changes even after leaving but for example Scotland because of their northerly latitude might seek to operate a different timezone to England. Or we might prefer to align DST to the USA where clocks change in the second week of March.
I fail to see the rationale behind the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland putting the clocks forward/back on different days.
Perhaps they wouldn't have to. IN both Canada and the USA DST is decided at a surprisingly local level e.g. regions of British Columbia operate different time zones If N.I wanted to stay aligned with RoI they should be able to.
On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !
Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
A lot of Green activists would like us to go back to the emission levels of 1090.
And more. The world as a whole needs to be looking at reducing to zero net CO2 emissions within the next 50 years or so.
Short of advanced civilisation being wiped out by a nuclear war, that is a fantasy.
Why ?
To be more considered, 50 years is a long time and there could be major technical breakthroughs to make it feasible if the political willpower is there. I don't think that it would happen with current technology unless a gigantic move to nuclear fission is embarked upon. It is a big and complex topic but the world's energy consumption is increasing rapidly and will have to continue to do so even if population stabilises during the 50 years. Eliminating fossil fuels or creating huge new carbon sinks to the extent that net CO2 emissions are 0, whilst increasing living standards? That would make solving the Irish backstop child's play by comparison.
It doesn't rehire any heroic estimates of technical progress to think the 50 year goal is entirely feasible, probably with most of it left to the market.
Assuming climate predictions are correct, we need to get there rather faster, though.
Here's an odd thought. At the moment our daylight saving dates are aligned to the EU - namely clocks go forward on the last weekend in March and back on the last weekend in October. Will we no longer be required to observe these standard dates when we leave? Do we need to leave the single market (EEA) or just the EU to achieve this?
Of course there may be no political will to make any changes even after leaving but for example Scotland because of their northerly latitude might seek to operate a different timezone to England. Or we might prefer to align DST to the USA where clocks change in the second week of March.
I fail to see the rationale behind the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland putting the clocks forward/back on different days.
Perhaps they wouldn't have to. IN both Canada and the USA DST is decided at a surprisingly local level e.g. regions of British Columbia operate different time zones If N.I wanted to stay aligned with RoI they should be able to.
I expect the next meeting of the Brexit Death Cult aka the ERG will resemble a wake if the DUP agree to back Mays deal .
The DUP have so far acted as the Teflon for them. Barring the lunatic Sammy Wilson the other slightly less lunatic DUP MPs want a deal .
The DUP can’t be the handmaidens of a no deal given their voters want a deal and would prefer a soft Brexit .
The damage to Northern Ireland of a no deal is far worse than for the rest of the UK .
Exactly. The DUP gain absolutely nothing from not backing May's Deal. All they need now is a bit more money and some kind of flimsy legal justification that everyone will forget as soon as the Deal passes.
You can see from Dodd’s talking to reporters , emphasizing they want a deal . Rumour is that something might be put in the WAIB to assuage their concerns .
Given the ERG made a song and dance about the backstop , if it’s good enough for the DUP it should be good enough for them .
If they still refuse then the mask falls and the press and other Tories will round on them as clearly trying to force a no deal.
The ERG are getting too big for their boots . They can’t do the maths . They might have 80 members but the opposition parties and saner Tories have a lot more .
No to no deal ever was passed by a healthy 40 plus majority and that’s with 17 Tory abstentions .
If they won’t accept a ladder to climb down from then they can own a longer extension .
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She looks like she's about to collapse in a heap at any moment. She's not a well woman so I doubt she herself wants to go on much longer.
Securing Brexit against all odds and (more or less) managing to keep her Party together would be the perfect moment to bow out and have a rest IMO.
That is rather patronising. If she pulls this off she an decide in her own time when to pass on the batten
Mr G, I think it's baton actually.
Unless he’s thinking of what hatches require in stormy weather....
You mean the Jewish Councillor who made exactly the same joke as the Jewish Chronicle
About Labours system and Jew (Due) process
Good point. One of the people fingered for anti-semitism in the Labour Party was Jewish as well.
But I suppose being Jewish doesn't guarantee that you aren't anti-semitic. And when accusations come from political opponents who have already tried several other less successful lines of attack it doesn't guarantee that the whole thing is a setup.
Re the Climate Strike: I don’t know of any pupils from my school that took a day off to go. The previous one coincided with a training day, so I’ve no idea if any went, but I doubt it.
Children have little more than a superficial understanding of anything. I refuse to be lectured to by them. People would not accept a childrens march for greater immigration control and a more aggressive foreign policy, why would people accept this?
I would perhaps not put it quite as robustly, but similar thoughts had occurred. The wisdom of the children is only desirable when it aligns with what we want, I would guess. And I'm fine with taking green actions.
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She looks like she's about to collapse in a heap at any moment. She's not a well woman so I doubt she herself wants to go on much longer.
Securing Brexit against all odds and (more or less) managing to keep her Party together would be the perfect moment to bow out and have a rest IMO.
That is rather patronising. If she pulls this off she an decide in her own time when to pass on the batten
Mr G, I think it's baton actually.
Unless he’s thinking of what hatches require in stormy weather....
Not been a good day today with the slaughter in New Zealand and the implications that this is a connected worldwide terror group
And we have just learned that my wife's cousin's younger son has died due to a rare very aggessive cancer at 46, leaving a wife and three children. He only found out a few weeks ago.
It reminds us that everyday someone is experiencing a tragedy in their lives while our politicians rant and rave over something that is so very much less important
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She looks like she's about to collapse in a heap at any moment. She's not a well woman so I doubt she herself wants to go on much longer.
Securing Brexit against all odds and (more or less) managing to keep her Party together would be the perfect moment to bow out and have a rest IMO.
That is rather patronising. If she pulls this off she an decide in her own time when to pass on the batten
Mr G, I think it's baton actually.
Unless he’s thinking of what hatches require in stormy weather....
When the May Deal does pass - thanks to the votes of MPs who said they would never, ever vote for it - how much money would they have cost the country in wasted No Deal preparations?
You mean the Jewish Councillor who made exactly the same joke as the Jewish Chronicle
About Labours system and Jew (Due) process
Good point. One of the people fingered for anti-semitism in the Labour Party was Jewish as well.
But I suppose being Jewish doesn't guarantee that you aren't anti-semitic. And when accusations come from political opponents who have already tried several other less successful lines of attack it doesn't guarantee that the whole thing is a setup.
Occam's Razor.
"It's all an anti-Labour conspiracy" versus "Labour's problems with anti-Semitism stem from the attitudes of the people at the top of the party."
Hmmm.
What's particularly sickening is the way people who accuse their political enemies of racism and other -isms at the drop of a hat are so utterly blind to anti-Semitism and other isms when it rears its ugly head in their own party. It indicates they don't really care about the isms.
In addition: the 'political opponents' you mention include Labour members and MPs who have faithfully served the party for years, if not decades. They think there's a problem with anti-Semitism within the party - heck even Corbyn says there is - and yet some Labour people on here deny it.
Not been a good day today with the slaughter in New Zealand and the implications that this is a connected worldwide terror group
And we have just learned that my wife's cousin's younger son has died due to a rare very aggessive cancer at 46, leaving a wife and three children. He only found out a few weeks ago.
It reminds us that everyday someone is experiencing a tragedy in their lives while our politicians rant and rave over something that is so very much less important
Dreadful news, G. My best sympathies and wishes sir.
When the May Deal does pass - thanks to the votes of MPs who said they would never, ever vote for it - how much money would they have cost the country in wasted No Deal preparations?
A lot, but even more in lost business and in irreversible moves of operations to the EU27, most of which could have been avoided if the deal had been agreed back in Nov/Dec of last year.
Not been a good day today with the slaughter in New Zealand and the implications that this is a connected worldwide terror group
And we have just learned that my wife's cousin's younger son has died due to a rare very aggessive cancer at 46, leaving a wife and three children. He only found out a few weeks ago.
It reminds us that everyday someone is experiencing a tragedy in their lives while our politicians rant and rave over something that is so very much less important
Dreadful news, G. My best sympathies and wishes sir.
Thank you so much. It is so much worse for parents when they lose a child no matter how old they are
When the May Deal does pass - thanks to the votes of MPs who said they would never, ever vote for it - how much money would they have cost the country in wasted No Deal preparations?
When the May Deal does pass - thanks to the votes of MPs who said they would never, ever vote for it - how much money would they have cost the country in wasted No Deal preparations?
A lot, but even more in lost business and in irreversible moves of operations to the EU27, most of which could have been avoided if the deal had been agreed back in Nov/Dec of last year.
Yep, it is absolutely unforgivable. A lot of those companies are not coming back. More may have put in place departure plans that they now will not change.
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She looks like she's about to collapse in a heap at any moment. She's not a well woman so I doubt she herself wants to go on much longer.
Securing Brexit against all odds and (more or less) managing to keep her Party together would be the perfect moment to bow out and have a rest IMO.
That is rather patronising. If she pulls this off she an decide in her own time when to pass on the batten
G she would be achieving nothing , she has scuppered every option and tied us to a sinking ship. She will be reviled. If it was just a bad deal it would have passed by now. She has trashed the constitution and the country.
Yes definitely . The whole letter is him trying to show he battled hard but he needs to vote for the deal to deliver even an imperfect Brexit .
The deal gives control to the EU and flies in the face of the take back control guff . You really couldn’t make it up . And the UK will be extending the transition most likely till end of Dec 2021.
I find it truly ironic that we’ve gone through all this , 3 years of chaos and division to deliver a deal that means the biggest transfer of sovereignty from the UK !
As a Remainer I’m still trying to work out where that was on the side of the bus !
When the May Deal does pass - thanks to the votes of MPs who said they would never, ever vote for it - how much money would they have cost the country in wasted No Deal preparations?
A lot, but even more in lost business and in irreversible moves of operations to the EU27, most of which could have been avoided if the deal had been agreed back in Nov/Dec of last year.
Yep, it is absolutely unforgivable. A lot of those companies are not coming back. More may have put in place departure plans that they now will not change.
Though unless the final FTA is not so free flowing as the current SM as continued in the WA, then they have merely brought forward their plans by 18 months.
The hassle over the May Deal does not bode well for the next rounds of negotiations.
It's ironic that after four years of talking about Labour deselections as Corbyn's dogmatism starts to bite on the PLP, and now it's the Tories who are talking about it because of their dogmatism over Brexit!
I suppose the difference is we're talking about an extremist minority of the PCP, whereas the group under threat in the PLP are the mainstream majority. But it's still ironic.
This time next week we could have the WA signed off by Parliament and the extension to 30th June signed off by the EU.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
Not sure it works like that. If May gets her Deal through she will be very popular in the country. Voters will not understand why the Tories would want her out.
She looks like she's about to collapse in a heap at any moment. She's not a well woman so I doubt she herself wants to go on much longer.
Securing Brexit against all odds and (more or less) managing to keep her Party together would be the perfect moment to bow out and have a rest IMO.
That is rather patronising. If she pulls this off she an decide in her own time when to pass on the batten
G she would be achieving nothing , she has scuppered every option and tied us to a sinking ship. She will be reviled. If it was just a bad deal it would have passed by now. She has trashed the constitution and the country.
She has tried to meet in the middle and of course with such extremes on both sides she has felt pressure like no other politician but is still standing. It is, or maybe isn't, surprising how much she is appreciated in the country, and certainly there is no one near her in public perception for PM
Having said that she has failings but only time will tell what her eventual legacy is.
When the May Deal does pass - thanks to the votes of MPs who said they would never, ever vote for it - how much money would they have cost the country in wasted No Deal preparations?
A lot, but even more in lost business and in irreversible moves of operations to the EU27, most of which could have been avoided if the deal had been agreed back in Nov/Dec of last year.
Yep, it is absolutely unforgivable. A lot of those companies are not coming back. More may have put in place departure plans that they now will not change.
The hassle over the May Deal does not bode well for the next rounds of negotiations.
The WA was the easy bit! Though much of the Westminster argument has been about the Future Relationship.
When the May Deal does pass - thanks to the votes of MPs who said they would never, ever vote for it - how much money would they have cost the country in wasted No Deal preparations?
A lot, but even more in lost business and in irreversible moves of operations to the EU27, most of which could have been avoided if the deal had been agreed back in Nov/Dec of last year.
Yep, it is absolutely unforgivable. A lot of those companies are not coming back. More may have put in place departure plans that they now will not change.
Though unless the final FTA is not so free flowing as the current SM as continued in the WA, then they have merely brought forward their plans by 18 months.
The hassle over the May Deal does not bode well for the next rounds of negotiations.
Absolutely. The whole thing is a shit-show, of course. All we have learned in the last two years is that we can set red lines, then the EU will decide what deal we get.
When the May Deal does pass - thanks to the votes of MPs who said they would never, ever vote for it - how much money would they have cost the country in wasted No Deal preparations?
Several billion at least. If it happens.
Several billion - and then some. Put that on the side of a bus!!
It's ironic that after four years of talking about Labour deselections as Corbyn's dogmatism starts to bite on the PLP, and now it's the Tories who are talking about it because of their dogmatism over Brexit!
I suppose the difference is we're talking about an extremist minority of the PCP, whereas the group under threat in the PLP are the mainstream majority. But it's still ironic.
Most of the parliamentary party voted against the government motion to extend article 50.
Good piece, but I think he's fundamentally wrong on three points:
1. The "mini deals" he postulates are a long, long way from being ready. Furthermore, they don't cover areas where the EU simply has no competence - such as the rights of British nationals in EU countries if the UK becomes a third party, or the tax treatment of UK companies' subsidiaries in the EU.
2. The backstop can be left unilaterally. International law is not as he thinks it is. Furthermore, the only circumstance (I would hope) where we would seek to leave is one where the EU has broken its commitments, and therefore the arbitration is in our favour.
3. The EU doesn't actually want to trap the UK (as a whole) in the backstop. Why? Because it would basically have offered the UK the status of Switzerland, only without the payments or the Freedom of Movement. That's an anomaly that they will be keen to rectify as soon as possible (otherwise Switzerland will start agitating loudly).
It's ironic that after four years of talking about Labour deselections as Corbyn's dogmatism starts to bite on the PLP, and now it's the Tories who are talking about it because of their dogmatism over Brexit!
I suppose the difference is we're talking about an extremist minority of the PCP, whereas the group under threat in the PLP are the mainstream majority. But it's still ironic.
Most of the parliamentary party voted against the government motion to extend article 50.
We're talking about the WA. 242 of the PCP voted for that at the last count.
When the May Deal does pass - thanks to the votes of MPs who said they would never, ever vote for it - how much money would they have cost the country in wasted No Deal preparations?
I vote for a flat rate tax on all wealth of ERG members... plus say 10% lopped off their gold plated MP pension (my long-standing bugbear)
Theresa May will not win over sufficient numbers of the 75. Her only hope is Labour, and that's a pretty slim one.
Why do I write this? Because I had an exchange this afternoon with one of those 75. He told me that he cannot vote for her deal "because it isn't Brexit". He then pointed me to this:
The fact is that those hardliners simply don't believe Theresa May's deal is Brexit. In fact, they think it's worse than if we remained in the EU.
So don't bet on her getting this through. A few may be swayed but the MP who spoke to me was absolutely by no means one of the more fanatical. Far from it.
What does a crowd of people saying anything have to do with whether or not someone is hated or not? People talk about how hated the Tories are yet they have been the most popular political party at GEs 3 times in a row. People can be hated and loved at the same time.
You mean the Jewish Councillor who made exactly the same joke as the Jewish Chronicle
About Labours system and Jew (Due) process
Good point. One of the people fingered for anti-semitism in the Labour Party was Jewish as well.
But I suppose being Jewish doesn't guarantee that you aren't anti-semitic. And when accusations come from political opponents who have already tried several other less successful lines of attack it doesn't guarantee that the whole thing is a setup.
Occam's Razor.
"It's all an anti-Labour conspiracy" versus "Labour's problems with anti-Semitism stem from the attitudes of the people at the top of the party."
Hmmm.
What's particularly sickening is the way people who accuse their political enemies of racism and other -isms at the drop of a hat are so utterly blind to anti-Semitism and other isms when it rears its ugly head in their own party. It indicates they don't really care about the isms.
In addition: the 'political opponents' you mention include Labour members and MPs who have faithfully served the party for years, if not decades. They think there's a problem with anti-Semitism within the party - heck even Corbyn says there is - and yet some Labour people on here deny it.
I'll take Occam's razor. I'll have has aftershave as well, and his bergamot scented post shave wipes with aloe vera and allantoin while I am at it.
When an accusation is made by a political opponent it is always a good idea to be skeptical about it. This is especially the case when it is so convenient and tempting. The left in general including the Labour Party do have a tendency to be a bit pious and sanctimonious about racism. So who wouldn't enjoy exposing their hypocrisy on this matter? I'd quite enjoy it myself.
But anti-semitism is quite a serious charge to make. It really does require some pretty strong evidence. There have been a few dribs and drabs of this. The most clear cut was the councillor in Littlehampton. But that one was dealt with extremely quickly and effectively, and so doesn't really fit the story.
I'll take it seriously when there is something other than innuendo.
In the meantime just so you know, I am generally sympathetic to Labour but I am not a member and I don't even vote for them that often.
When the May Deal does pass - thanks to the votes of MPs who said they would never, ever vote for it - how much money would they have cost the country in wasted No Deal preparations?
A lot, but even more in lost business and in irreversible moves of operations to the EU27, most of which could have been avoided if the deal had been agreed back in Nov/Dec of last year.
Yep, it is absolutely unforgivable. A lot of those companies are not coming back. More may have put in place departure plans that they now will not change.
Though unless the final FTA is not so free flowing as the current SM as continued in the WA, then they have merely brought forward their plans by 18 months.
The hassle over the May Deal does not bode well for the next rounds of negotiations.
Absolutely. The whole thing is a shit-show, of course. All we have learned in the last two years is that we can set red lines, then the EU will decide what deal we get.
It is the UK that wants to leave. Of course the EU decides.
Comments
She's been nobbled by the Shipley Pillock.
Hopefully Theresa will announce her resignation as Con leader by the end of the month and we can spend the next 2-3 months up to 30th June getting a new Con leader and PM followed by a new cabinet and a general election.
That would then be followed by a new LOTO and a new Speaker. Plus we know we're getting a new Lib-Dem leader soon.
2019 could be the year of refresh and renewal.
https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1106554544937463811
About Labours system and Jew (Due) process
https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1106496283689267200
Securing Brexit against all odds and (more or less) managing to keep her Party together would be the perfect moment to bow out and have a rest IMO.
The DUP have so far acted as the Teflon for them. Barring the lunatic Sammy Wilson the other slightly less lunatic DUP MPs want a deal .
The DUP can’t be the handmaidens of a no deal given their voters want a deal and would prefer a soft Brexit .
The damage to Northern Ireland of a no deal is far worse than for the rest of the UK .
https://twitter.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1106488803949244417?s=21
Not that you give a feck - you just don't care
We need a majority government to get the trade deal done and frankly Con can't take the risk of having another election with Theresa.
We need a new PM, a new CotE, a new cabinet, a new LOTO, a new Lib-Dem leader and a new Speaker.
Once the WA is secure it's time to get on with it. Refresh and renew.
Thats the Context
Personally I think those Non Jews with placards "For the many not the Jew" are AS
But she supports Corbyn so you just dont care
https://www.votepursglove.co.uk/sites/www.votepursglove.co.uk/files/2019-03/Brexit Statement 15th March 2019.pdf
Worth a read to understand the mindset.
Assuming climate predictions are correct, we need to get there rather faster, though.
https://twitter.com/nickreeves9876/status/1106607382237454338
Given the ERG made a song and dance about the backstop , if it’s good enough for the DUP it should be good enough for them .
If they still refuse then the mask falls and the press and other Tories will round on them as clearly trying to force a no deal.
The ERG are getting too big for their boots . They can’t do the maths . They might have 80 members but the opposition parties and saner Tories have a lot more .
No to no deal ever was passed by a healthy 40 plus majority and that’s with 17 Tory abstentions .
If they won’t accept a ladder to climb down from then they can own a longer extension .
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/15/patisserie-valerie-accounts-black-hole-94m-say-kpmg
But I suppose being Jewish doesn't guarantee that you aren't anti-semitic. And when accusations come from political opponents who have already tried several other less successful lines of attack it doesn't guarantee that the whole thing is a setup.
Will he climb down it?
And we have just learned that my wife's cousin's younger son has died due to a rare very aggessive cancer at 46, leaving a wife and three children. He only found out a few weeks ago.
It reminds us that everyday someone is experiencing a tragedy in their lives while our politicians rant and rave over something that is so very much less important
"It's all an anti-Labour conspiracy" versus "Labour's problems with anti-Semitism stem from the attitudes of the people at the top of the party."
Hmmm.
What's particularly sickening is the way people who accuse their political enemies of racism and other -isms at the drop of a hat are so utterly blind to anti-Semitism and other isms when it rears its ugly head in their own party. It indicates they don't really care about the isms.
In addition: the 'political opponents' you mention include Labour members and MPs who have faithfully served the party for years, if not decades. They think there's a problem with anti-Semitism within the party - heck even Corbyn says there is - and yet some Labour people on here deny it.
Remember: May. Needs. Every. Single. Vote.
That’s an exceptional effort.
I thought it was Boris until I got to the bottom.
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1106611410245689344
The deal gives control to the EU and flies in the face of the take back control guff . You really couldn’t make it up . And the UK will be extending the transition most likely till end of Dec 2021.
I find it truly ironic that we’ve gone through all this , 3 years of chaos and division to deliver a deal that means the biggest transfer of sovereignty from the UK !
As a Remainer I’m still trying to work out where that was on the side of the bus !
The hassle over the May Deal does not bode well for the next rounds of negotiations.
I suppose the difference is we're talking about an extremist minority of the PCP, whereas the group under threat in the PLP are the mainstream majority. But it's still ironic.
Having said that she has failings but only time will tell what her eventual legacy is.
1. The "mini deals" he postulates are a long, long way from being ready. Furthermore, they don't cover areas where the EU simply has no competence - such as the rights of British nationals in EU countries if the UK becomes a third party, or the tax treatment of UK companies' subsidiaries in the EU.
2. The backstop can be left unilaterally. International law is not as he thinks it is. Furthermore, the only circumstance (I would hope) where we would seek to leave is one where the EU has broken its commitments, and therefore the arbitration is in our favour.
3. The EU doesn't actually want to trap the UK (as a whole) in the backstop. Why? Because it would basically have offered the UK the status of Switzerland, only without the payments or the Freedom of Movement. That's an anomaly that they will be keen to rectify as soon as possible (otherwise Switzerland will start agitating loudly).
Leave finance and start a business, and you miss things...
https://twitter.com/fwred/status/1106104860758425600
Why do I write this? Because I had an exchange this afternoon with one of those 75. He told me that he cannot vote for her deal "because it isn't Brexit". He then pointed me to this:
https://brexitcentral.com/brexiteers-right-tuesday-reject-deal-leave-brussels-control/
The fact is that those hardliners simply don't believe Theresa May's deal is Brexit. In fact, they think it's worse than if we remained in the EU.
So don't bet on her getting this through. A few may be swayed but the MP who spoke to me was absolutely by no means one of the more fanatical. Far from it.
When an accusation is made by a political opponent it is always a good idea to be skeptical about it. This is especially the case when it is so convenient and tempting. The left in general including the Labour Party do have a tendency to be a bit pious and sanctimonious about racism. So who wouldn't enjoy exposing their hypocrisy on this matter? I'd quite enjoy it myself.
But anti-semitism is quite a serious charge to make. It really does require some pretty strong evidence. There have been a few dribs and drabs of this. The most clear cut was the councillor in Littlehampton. But that one was dealt with extremely quickly and effectively, and so doesn't really fit the story.
I'll take it seriously when there is something other than innuendo.
In the meantime just so you know, I am generally sympathetic to Labour but I am not a member and I don't even vote for them that often.
STARTER:
CRISPY DUCK SALAD
WITH
HOISIN AND ORANGE DRESSING
MAINS:
MAPLE SYRUP AND SOY-MARINADED SALMON
WITH
A GINGER AND CHILLI BROTH
AND
DIM SUM
PLUS
EGG-FRIED RICE
DESSERT:
BLOOD ORANGE AND APRICOT SOUFFLE
WITH
BACO DI ROMA BISCUITS CONTAINING ORANGE AND ROSEMARY
CHEESEBOARD