Empirical evidence suggests otherwise. One of the mistakes Leave and the government made was not to explicitly attack and remove the darker forces/motivations from Brexit. Made sure it could never be a positive thing.
Which is of course correct. Every course of action from here is disastrous. Pick your preferred disaster and then watch it unfold, with the added piquancy of having to take responsibility for it.
OK, so Parliament wants to block no deal. How specifically is it going to do that?
1. Vote for May's deal. Short of her agreeing to a confirmatory referendum or calling a GE first I cannot see how MV3/4/5 passes. ERG/DUP have the prize in sight, opposition remainers can almost touch PV/Revoke 2. Get an extension from the EU. On what grounds might they grant one? A. Because the deal was passed (no), B. to remove the back stop issue by making the extension 2 years (would HoC agree that?), C. to allow us to hold an election/referendum - other than that aren't they going to tell us to sod off? 3. Call an election / referendum. May cannot do these. I suppose that the Commons could vote it through but she won't implement it. And even contempt/no confidence motions would fail as the ERG would cuddle her close 4. Revoke. Has to be done by government. As with 3 even if the Commons votes to do this I can't see May obeying and she can't be removed with ERG support
Which leaves us leaving on time with no deal. I want to be wrong, so please persuade me of how either the deal gets passed, a consensus is agreed on an alternative which the government will implement etc etc. I'm struggling to see it.
Northern Ireland's Public Prosecution Service will this morning announce if any individuals are to be charged in relation to the Bloody Sunday events in Derry in 1972.
I still don't understand this one I'm afraid, two decades after we let everyone involved in the Troubles out of prison and agreed to leave the past in the past.
You don't think there's a difference between being tried & convicted for a crime then being given amnesty, and never facing a court while making statements (often anonymously) that you had committed no crime and would take the same actions again?
Presumably you feel suspects for the Omagh bombings should never have faced trial, and should never face any future legal process regardless of new evidence.
Andrew Gwynne MP Verified account @GwynneMP 17h17 hours ago
Before it all hits the fan on social media I want to explain that I won’t be in Parliament tonight to vote. I’m heading to Liverpool as my 7-week old grandson has been transferred from A&E in Manchester to ICU at Alder Hey Children’s Hospital. Please keep him in your thoughts x
Poor lad.
Ironically, the political fallout has been for his pair, Michael Freer. It would be nice to see journalists tweet as assiduously about the fact that the whip had been paired as they tweeted that he had not voted.
Journalists are all part of this disaster - their coverage of brexit has been as bad as the politicians involved in it
Few real journalists about now G, they have gone same way as politicians, just brown nosers who print exactly what the rotten politicians pass to them , no journalism.
OK, so Parliament wants to block no deal. How specifically is it going to do that?
1. Vote for May's deal. Short of her agreeing to a confirmatory referendum or calling a GE first I cannot see how MV3/4/5 passes. ERG/DUP have the prize in sight, opposition remainers can almost touch PV/Revoke 2. Get an extension from the EU. On what grounds might they grant one? A. Because the deal was passed (no), B. to remove the back stop issue by making the extension 2 years (would HoC agree that?), C. to allow us to hold an election/referendum - other than that aren't they going to tell us to sod off? 3. Call an election / referendum. May cannot do these. I suppose that the Commons could vote it through but she won't implement it. And even contempt/no confidence motions would fail as the ERG would cuddle her close 4. Revoke. Has to be done by government. As with 3 even if the Commons votes to do this I can't see May obeying and she can't be removed with ERG support
Which leaves us leaving on time with no deal. I want to be wrong, so please persuade me of how either the deal gets passed, a consensus is agreed on an alternative which the government will implement etc etc. I'm struggling to see it.
Gina Miller has just said that the EU itself would be acting against EU law if it fails to stop no deal brexit
She attacked labour and the EU in equal measure. Interesting
No. There are no outcomes that will attract majority support. A referendum is a process in any event. But look what happened with the outcome of the last two in this country. Made Scotland and then the UK as a whole more, not less, divided.
Andrew Gwynne MP Verified account @GwynneMP 17h17 hours ago
Before it all hits the fan on social media I want to explain that I won’t be in Parliament tonight to vote. I’m heading to Liverpool as my 7-week old grandson has been transferred from A&E in Manchester to ICU at Alder Hey Children’s Hospital. Please keep him in your thoughts x
Poor lad.
Ironically, the political fallout has been for his pair, Michael Freer. It would be nice to see journalists tweet as assiduously about the fact that the whip had been paired as they tweeted that he had not voted.
Journalists are all part of this disaster - their coverage of brexit has been as bad as the politicians involved in it
Few real journalists about now G, they have gone same way as politicians, just brown nosers who print exactly what the rotten politicians pass to them , no journalism.
Morning Malc - indeed. Trust it is a 'bonnie' day with you
Northern Ireland's Public Prosecution Service will this morning announce if any individuals are to be charged in relation to the Bloody Sunday events in Derry in 1972.
It’s an Irish media outlet & I think they’ve always used Derry
It’s as impolite as us using Peking or Bombay.
I have heard of the second largest city in Northern Ireland referred to ironically as "Slash".
When used as a hymn tune, O Danny Boy is always described as the “Londonderry Air”.
For some reason, this was thought preferable to simply the “Derry Air”.
The city is Derry because most people living there call it that. The song is "Londonderry Air" because that's its title. Anyone seen a musical called "Miss Ho Chi Minh City" ?
No. There are no outcomes that will attract majority support. A referendum is a process in any event. But look what happened with the outcome of the last two in this country. Made Scotland and then the UK as a whole more, not less, divided.
Certainly showed Scotland how voting the wrong way by believing a bunch of Westminster liars is NOT the way to go. Same turds now cratering the UK.
I had a lot of time for the LDs previously and particularly Steel. I voted LD at a couple of GEs when they were obviously sheltering a paedo MP. Like all large organisations, they deny and lie to protect their reputations. If Steel knew, he wasn't the only one.
The RC Church was also doing the same and has been deservedly criticised for it. The Labour and Tory party would do exactly the same, and probably have been doing so. Put not your trust in princes.
How about a what-if? Let's suppose a UK government allowed another independence referendum for Scotland and the Nats won 52 - 48.
Would the unionists demand they take account of the large minority against? Would the SNP allow parliament to make the decisions, perhaps softening it to a super-devolution instead? If they didn't, the charge of hypocrisy looms large.
More likely, no UK Parliament would allow another referendum unless they were absolutely certain they'd like the decision.
I know oppositions like to triangulate but I understand Emily Thornberry said a second referendum will be proposed next week but Angela Rayner has ruled out having one.
But there's so many shambles going on in the Commons .. this is a right and proper omni-shambles!
Northern Ireland's Public Prosecution Service will this morning announce if any individuals are to be charged in relation to the Bloody Sunday events in Derry in 1972.
It’s an Irish media outlet & I think they’ve always used Derry
It’s as impolite as us using Peking or Bombay.
I have heard of the second largest city in Northern Ireland referred to ironically as "Slash".
When used as a hymn tune, O Danny Boy is always described as the “Londonderry Air”.
For some reason, this was thought preferable to simply the “Derry Air”.
The city is Derry because most people living there call it that. The song is "Londonderry Air" because that's its title. Anyone seen a musical called "Miss Ho Chi Minh City" ?
I had a lot of time for the LDs previously and particularly Steel. I voted LD at a couple of GEs when they were obviously sheltering a paedo MP. Like all large organisations, they deny and lie to protect their reputations. If Steel knew, he wasn't the only one.
The RC Church was also doing the same and has been deservedly criticised for it. The Labour and Tory party would do exactly the same, and probably have been doing so. Put not your trust in princes.
How about a what-if? Let's suppose a UK government allowed another independence referendum for Scotland and the Nats won 52 - 48.
Would the unionists demand they take account of the large minority against? Would the SNP allow parliament to make the decisions, perhaps softening it to a super-devolution instead? If they didn't, the charge of hypocrisy looms large.
More likely, no UK Parliament would allow another referendum unless they were absolutely certain they'd like the decision.
also, the clear progress and tactic which the UK parliment would take would be exactly the same as the EU could take with article 50. Delay, make it as difficult as possible, and change public opinion for a re-vote.
So, that old chestnut, how many Meaningful Votes does it take to pass a Withdrawal Agreement? Answer, who cares so long as it happens in the end.
The mistake is in thinking that the Meaningful Vote is something that passes the WA.
It isn't. The EU Withdrawal Act, a full piece of amendable primary legislation running through both Houses and Committees, is what will actually pass the WA - we have all that still to come!
Leavers ringing up radio stations saying MPs wanting to leave with a deal are betraying the public . So people not wanting to harm the country are now public enemy number one . Some MPs being called traitors for supporting Mays deal . It’s astonishing , now an orderly exit isn’t good enough and for some only complete carnage and a total rupture with the EU will do .
And apparently this is what they voted for in 2016 , which is a disgraceful revisioning and clearly now the ERG death cult has instructed its followers they have followed like Borg drones trying to take the country over the cliff .
And people wonder why Remainers might be just a little pissed off . Yes fine leave but for heavens sake do it sensibly with a deal.
Leavers ringing up radio stations saying MPs wanting to leave with a deal are betraying the public . So people not wanting to harm the country are now public enemy number one . Some MPs being called traitors for supporting Mays deal . It’s astonishing , now an orderly exit isn’t good enough and for some only complete carnage and a total rupture with the EU will do .
And apparently this is what they voted for in 2016 , which is a disgraceful revisioning and clearly now the ERG death cult has instructed its followers they have followed like Borg drones trying to take the country over the cliff .
And people wonder why Remainers might be just a little pissed off . Yes fine leave but for heavens sake do it sensibly with a deal.
Of course, Labour could end "country has gone mad" within the hour, by saying that it will vote for May's Deal for the good of the country. I hope you are making that case to them, forcefully.
Hold on.. Does that mean parliament doesn’t want the WA, doesn’t want No Deal, and the chances are that parliament might vote to block extension?
The only two course of action from that are a GE or further referendum?
No.The issue now is whether parliament now passes an amendment to the Act of Parliament still on the statute book that says we leave on 29th March. It could do so by revoking A50 or by accepting an agreement with the EU to extend the 29th March date. For the latter, I have no doubt that the EU will be confident enough to offer much more onerous terms than it would have done if last night's vote had gone the other way.
Even if the Government falls in a vote of confidence, that primary legislation is still there if nothing more is done, and so we are still on course to leave in 2 weeks time.
Leavers ringing up radio stations saying MPs wanting to leave with a deal are betraying the public . So people not wanting to harm the country are now public enemy number one . Some MPs being called traitors for supporting Mays deal . It’s astonishing , now an orderly exit isn’t good enough and for some only complete carnage and a total rupture with the EU will do .
And apparently this is what they voted for in 2016 , which is a disgraceful revisioning and clearly now the ERG death cult has instructed its followers they have followed like Borg drones trying to take the country over the cliff .
And people wonder why Remainers might be just a little pissed off . Yes fine leave but for heavens sake do it sensibly with a deal.
Leavers ringing up radio stations saying MPs wanting to leave with a deal are betraying the public . So people not wanting to harm the country are now public enemy number one . Some MPs being called traitors for supporting Mays deal . It’s astonishing , now an orderly exit isn’t good enough and for some only complete carnage and a total rupture with the EU will do .
And apparently this is what they voted for in 2016 , which is a disgraceful revisioning and clearly now the ERG death cult has instructed its followers they have followed like Borg drones trying to take the country over the cliff .
And people wonder why Remainers might be just a little pissed off . Yes fine leave but for heavens sake do it sensibly with a deal.
The UK is enduring some kind of collective nervous breakdown frankly. All sense of proportion or common sense seems to being lost. God knows how long we will have to go through this all before we regain some sense.
I'm trying to piece together how this progresses based on today's vote and May's Tuesday night statement:
1. Today's vote: technical vote acknowledging and agreeing drivers for extension, but not forcing it. Amendment to full blown vote then rejection .possible. 2. SIs removing No Deal default as much as practicable from UK legislation. (Gov whip for, poss Fri sitting?) 3. MV3, acknowledging change of circumstances by removal of no deal 4. If MV3 fails, indicative rule in/out votes on extension reasons - e.g further negotiation around current WA, switch to CU, Second Referendum on current options. Preferred option selected. (Here by 21/3!!!) 5. Ask EU for extension, if fails..... 6. MV4: explicitly stating that revocation will be result of MV4 failure. 7. If MV4 passes, second request for technical extension. Surely granted!!
Leavers ringing up radio stations saying MPs wanting to leave with a deal are betraying the public . So people not wanting to harm the country are now public enemy number one . Some MPs being called traitors for supporting Mays deal . It’s astonishing , now an orderly exit isn’t good enough and for some only complete carnage and a total rupture with the EU will do .
And apparently this is what they voted for in 2016 , which is a disgraceful revisioning and clearly now the ERG death cult has instructed its followers they have followed like Borg drones trying to take the country over the cliff .
And people wonder why Remainers might be just a little pissed off . Yes fine leave but for heavens sake do it sensibly with a deal.
The UK is enduring some kind of collective nervous breakdown frankly. All sense of proportion or common sense seems to being lost. God knows how long we will have to go through this all before we regain some sense.
Deeply worrying times.
Tobe fair the shambles and confusion in the Commons accurately reflects opinion on the ground in the country.
Whether we Leave or Revoke in the end, it is hard to see the conflict ending, as the subsequent course is going to be highly contentious, and opposed by significant minorities. Those bored of Brexit are going toget ahell of alot more bored!
Andrew Gwynne MP Verified account @GwynneMP 17h17 hours ago
Before it all hits the fan on social media I want to explain that I won’t be in Parliament tonight to vote. I’m heading to Liverpool as my 7-week old grandson has been transferred from A&E in Manchester to ICU at Alder Hey Children’s Hospital. Please keep him in your thoughts x
Poor lad.
Ironically, the political fallout has been for his pair, Michael Freer. It would be nice to see journalists tweet as assiduously about the fact that the whip had been paired as they tweeted that he had not voted.
Journalists are all part of this disaster - their coverage of brexit has been as bad as the politicians involved in it
Few real journalists about now G, they have gone same way as politicians, just brown nosers who print exactly what the rotten politicians pass to them , no journalism.
Morning Malc - indeed. Trust it is a 'bonnie' day with you
Morning G, weather still wild and swings between sunshine and heavy rain but I am very well indeed. Hope yuo0 are same.
Comments
1. Vote for May's deal. Short of her agreeing to a confirmatory referendum or calling a GE first I cannot see how MV3/4/5 passes. ERG/DUP have the prize in sight, opposition remainers can almost touch PV/Revoke
2. Get an extension from the EU. On what grounds might they grant one? A. Because the deal was passed (no), B. to remove the back stop issue by making the extension 2 years (would HoC agree that?), C. to allow us to hold an election/referendum - other than that aren't they going to tell us to sod off?
3. Call an election / referendum. May cannot do these. I suppose that the Commons could vote it through but she won't implement it. And even contempt/no confidence motions would fail as the ERG would cuddle her close
4. Revoke. Has to be done by government. As with 3 even if the Commons votes to do this I can't see May obeying and she can't be removed with ERG support
Which leaves us leaving on time with no deal. I want to be wrong, so please persuade me of how either the deal gets passed, a consensus is agreed on an alternative which the government will implement etc etc. I'm struggling to see it.
Presumably you feel suspects for the Omagh bombings should never have faced trial, and should never face any future legal process regardless of new evidence.
She attacked labour and the EU in equal measure. Interesting
WA
No Deal
Remain
Each block has sufficient votes so that when they combine they defeat the other one, but insufficient votes to win on their own platform.
It's a deadlock holiday.
https://twitter.com/Brigid_Fowler/status/1106111448718233600
The RC Church was also doing the same and has been deservedly criticised for it. The Labour and Tory party would do exactly the same, and probably have been doing so. Put not your trust in princes.
How about a what-if? Let's suppose a UK government allowed another independence referendum for Scotland and the Nats won 52 - 48.
Would the unionists demand they take account of the large minority against? Would the SNP allow parliament to make the decisions, perhaps softening it to a super-devolution instead? If they didn't, the charge of hypocrisy looms large.
More likely, no UK Parliament would allow another referendum unless they were absolutely certain they'd like the decision.
But there's so many shambles going on in the Commons .. this is a right and proper omni-shambles!
No actually, I dont.
Anyway, new thread.
It'll probably work.
It isn't. The EU Withdrawal Act, a full piece of amendable primary legislation running through both Houses and Committees, is what will actually pass the WA - we have all that still to come!
Leavers ringing up radio stations saying MPs wanting to leave with a deal are betraying the public . So people not wanting to harm the country are now public enemy number one . Some MPs being called traitors for supporting Mays deal . It’s astonishing , now an orderly exit isn’t good enough and for some only complete carnage and a total rupture with the EU will do .
And apparently this is what they voted for in 2016 , which is a disgraceful revisioning and clearly now the ERG death cult has instructed its followers they have followed like Borg drones trying to take the country over the cliff .
And people wonder why Remainers might be just a little pissed off . Yes fine leave but for heavens sake do it sensibly with a deal.
NEW THREAD
Even if the Government falls in a vote of confidence, that primary legislation is still there if nothing more is done, and so we are still on course to leave in 2 weeks time.
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/03/14/leaving-without-a-withdrawal-agreement-remains-the-default-position/
This could be Mark Francois:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEj1h7BC2b4
Deeply worrying times.
It doesn't matter how much the ERG and Farage claim it was. It was not. End of.
It is entirely right to have a 2nd vote if that is what is finally proposed.
Would help bring country together: 16%
THE DEAL:
Would help bring country together: 14%
NORWAY-PLUS:
Would help bring country together:18%
REFERENDUM-AND-REMAIN:
Would help bring country together: 17%
Doesn't look like the country's coming back together any time soon, then...
1. Today's vote: technical vote acknowledging and agreeing drivers for extension, but not forcing it. Amendment to full blown vote then rejection .possible.
2. SIs removing No Deal default as much as practicable from UK legislation. (Gov whip for, poss Fri sitting?)
3. MV3, acknowledging change of circumstances by removal of no deal
4. If MV3 fails, indicative rule in/out votes on extension reasons - e.g further negotiation around current WA, switch to CU, Second Referendum on current options. Preferred option selected.
(Here by 21/3!!!)
5. Ask EU for extension, if fails.....
6. MV4: explicitly stating that revocation will be result of MV4 failure.
7. If MV4 passes, second request for technical extension. Surely granted!!
Thoughts?
Whether we Leave or Revoke in the end, it is hard to see the conflict ending, as the subsequent course is going to be highly contentious, and opposed by significant minorities. Those bored of Brexit are going toget ahell of alot more bored!
Meanwhile other political issues are neglected.