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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Has the ERG won?

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  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    CD13 said:

    Mr 67,
    May I ask if you trust the EU to act in good faith? If you do, the May deal is acceptable.

    You don't even need that trust. The backstop was designed to be mutually uncomfortable, and our negotiators have done their jobs. Neither side will want to be stuck in it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Nearly 50 people, including actors Felicity Huffman and Lori Loughlin, were charged on Tuesday in what federal authorities say was a $25 million scam to help wealthy Americans get their children into elite universities like Yale and Stanford.

    The most sweeping college admissions fraud scheme ever unearthed in the United States was masterminded at a small college-preparation company based in Newport Beach, California, prosecutors said. It relied on bribes to coaches, phony test takers and even doctored photos misrepresenting non-athletic applicants as elite competitors to gain admissions for the offspring of rich parents."


    https://www.france24.com/en/20190313-usa-celebrities-wealthy-parents-charged-university-bribery-admissions-scandal

    Maybe we should congratulate Cambridge and Oxford for abolishing these alleged practices in about 1860.
    Cameron, Balls, Cummings, Adonis, Blair were all their on merit?

    It's a view...

    Good night.
    Not to mention David Miliband's A level results.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

    It does compute to me, funnily enough as a Remainer. I voted Remain because I thought EU membership was the best for the country. But the vote went the other way, and maybe I can accept the result, get with the programme. Yes Britain will be damaged by Brexit, but I didn't vote for it. Seeking to limit that damage is a worthwhile endeavour to me.

    If you are a Leaver, you didn't vote for damage limitation. You voted to make things better. All the practical downsides either don't exist, have nothing to do with Brexit, or are somebody else's fault. So why should you leave an organisation, where you have a say to a situation where that organisation simply tells what to do and you have no say? That wasn't what you voted for.

    That's ok for the ones that admit that staying in is better than what we have gotten as a deal. The ones who will see that happen but are not yet admitting it get my goat.

    But the deal is dead. MV4 is already been talked of because MV3 might also fail, which is telling. Plus Bercow looking to become a remainer hero.
    Let he who has never been in denial cast the first stone. I have certainly been there, pursuing a project long after it should be clear the gig is up
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    edited March 2019
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Last 8

    Ajax (NED)
    Juventus (ITA)
    Manchester City (ENG)
    Manchester United (ENG)
    Porto (POR)
    Tottenham Hotspur (ENG)
    Barcelona (ESP)
    Liverpool (ENG)

    Please let us avoid Barcelona....
    Are the quarters country protected, also which of the four is "we" here :p ?
    Edit: No country protection !
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914

    kle4 said:

    Back the deal and you back staying in the EU. Don't back the deal and we stay in the EU. Hmm.
    How do you deal with morons like this?

    He talks like an idiotic Twitter troll.
    What is particularly ridiculous is that all this tooing and froing is about the Withdrawal Agreement, and possible backstop, not about that final deal with the EU. I honestly don't really care about the WA, I can stomach almost anything for a couple of years, it's what comes after that that really matters. We are simply wasting time arguing about something which does not matter in the long term.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    I don't want to besmirch my computer by reading the Mail on it so could you give details as to when Steel supposedly knew about Fat Cyril ? Was it before, during or after.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    I don’t want a No Deal exit. But that will happen unless the government or Parliament do something.

    And I don’t see what they are doing to stop it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    rcs1000 said:
    I'm not sure we've yet seen the completeness of Mark Francois idiocy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    rcs1000 said:
    Arguably Brexiteers divide into useful idiots and useless idiots.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Voting for an extension is pointless. It's admitting that Parliament is an obstruction not an agent to implementation. What will change? What can change? Remain MPs are there to obstruct only.

    If the SNP succeed on getting a referendum on independence and win it, will they happy if the terms are set by those who are unionist?

    I don't expect an answer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t want a No Deal exit. But that will happen unless the government or Parliament do something.

    And I don’t see what they are doing to stop it.

    What, praising themselves on twitter is not doing something about it?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I don't want to besmirch my computer by reading the Mail on it so could you give details as to when Steel supposedly knew about Fat Cyril ? Was it before, during or after.
    After I think. I just thought it was an interesting story as I have seen Steel on the TV saying you should not condemn a dead man who cannot speak for himself in the past.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Fenster said:

    Trying to put myself in the ERG’s shoes and understand their thinking... I’ll pretend I’m Steve Baker.
    Baker was a huge behind-the-scenes apparatchik for the Leave campaign, cleverly working the angles and representing the harder Brexit wonkish Eurosceptics (such as Cash and Redwood).

    Baker has dedicated a significant part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU and deserves accolades for his orchestration of the Leave campaign. You’d therefore think he would grab the opportunity to complete his life’s work and back May’s Deal, to at least ensure we leave.

    But he didn’t, and he shows no sign of intending to do so.

    Given how much it means to him I can only think that his position is a principled one. I think his problem is that he, and other hardcore Brexiteers like him, have come to represent a portion of the electorate who will only accept a pure, hard, yet unachievable Brexit. It has been a mistake by people like Baker, who surely knew it would never be easy, to convince these voters that a pure Brexit could be done. You’ve only got to see the hard Kipperesque leavers on Twitter to witness their intransigence. They will settle for nothing less than the perfect Brexit, and Baker and co know they are boxed into a corner on that.

    By voting for May’s Deal they’d effectively be seen as traitors and would kiss goodbye to all their supporters, to the detriment of the other thing they love, the Tory party.

    My issue with people like Steve Baker (and I'm not picking on him) is that:

    1. The WA is not the endpoint. We can still use the WA to move to a WTO Brexit.
    2. The Irish border backstop - especially given what's changed in the last week - is completely misunderstood.

    Anyway. I'm livid with the lot of them. I'm sorely tempted to become an uber-Remainer, just to piss off the ERG. Really, it's only the inevitable gloating from Scott_P that holds me back.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    nico67 said:

    One thing is clear - any strategy there might have been to blame the EU for Brexit’s fall-out is in tatters.

    I’m really happy about this . The EU looks like the adult in the room , the UK government sadly is looking like a basket case .

    The media narrative is now over the complete shambles in the Commons . Brexiters attempts to blame the EU I agree have bitten the dust .
    Yes. Any comparison with a banana republic is deeply unfair. They at least can export their bananas
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Andrew,

    "Neither side will want to be stuck in it."

    I can give you 10 billion reasons why the EU won't mind too much. Membership fees.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I don't want to besmirch my computer by reading the Mail on it so could you give details as to when Steel supposedly knew about Fat Cyril ? Was it before, during or after.
    After I think. I just thought it was an interesting story as I have seen Steel on the TV saying you should not condemn a dead man who cannot speak for himself in the past.
    https://twitter.com/MeirionTweets/status/1105903442046914560
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Scott_P said:
    Yes. I pointed that passage out this morning.
    and as I've stated for weeks I don't think Parliament really cares what situation we end up in provided individual MPs can point the blame (or at least some of it) at others.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited March 2019

    I don't want to besmirch my computer by reading the Mail on it so could you give details as to when Steel supposedly knew about Fat Cyril ? Was it before, during or after.
    After. He asked him in 1979 and Smith didn't deny but said police took no action. The dwarf decided it was before he was a liberal mp so nothing to do with him. He was happy to sit alongside a nonce in parliament. Doesn't say if he knew about Freud
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    The ERG need to back TM deal now and bank the last chance to secure brexit. At the end of the day we will be out of the political institution which is a step along the way to our independence from Brussels . If the EU don’t then act in good faith we can still walk away, and go WTO
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    rcs1000 said:

    Fenster said:

    Trying to put myself in the ERG’s shoes and understand their thinking... I’ll pretend I’m Steve Baker.
    Baker was a huge behind-the-scenes apparatchik for the Leave campaign, cleverly working the angles and representing the harder Brexit wonkish Eurosceptics (such as Cash and Redwood).

    Baker has dedicated a significant part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU and deserves accolades for his orchestration of the Leave campaign. You’d therefore think he would grab the opportunity to complete his life’s work and back May’s Deal, to at least ensure we leave.

    But he didn’t, and he shows no sign of intending to do so.

    Given how much it means to him I can only think that his position is a principled one. I think his problem is that he, and other hardcore Brexiteers like him, have come to represent a portion of the electorate who will only accept a pure, hard, yet unachievable Brexit. It has been a mistake by people like Baker, who surely knew it would never be easy, to convince these voters that a pure Brexit could be done. You’ve only got to see the hard Kipperesque leavers on Twitter to witness their intransigence. They will settle for nothing less than the perfect Brexit, and Baker and co know they are boxed into a corner on that.

    By voting for May’s Deal they’d effectively be seen as traitors and would kiss goodbye to all their supporters, to the detriment of the other thing they love, the Tory party.

    My issue with people like Steve Baker (and I'm not picking on him) is that:

    1. The WA is not the endpoint. We can still use the WA to move to a WTO Brexit.
    2. The Irish border backstop - especially given what's changed in the last week - is completely misunderstood.

    Anyway. I'm livid with the lot of them. I'm sorely tempted to become an uber-Remainer, just to piss off the ERG. Really, it's only the inevitable gloating from Scott_P that holds me back.
    That would require the ERG to face some reality, take some responsibility and do some work.

    Whereas self-obsessed posturing is so much more fun.

    Sometimes I wonder if all the cheap alcohol, portraits of Churchill on the wall etc encourage our politicians to behave as arseholes.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    CD13 said:

    Mr Andrew,

    "Neither side will want to be stuck in it."

    I can give you 10 billion reasons why the EU won't mind too much. Membership fees.

    What membership fees?
    Are you under the impression that the backstop involves membership fees?

    https://fullfact.org/europe/if-we-go-backstop-will-uk-be-making-any-financial-contributions-eu-period/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    rcs1000 said:

    Fenster said:

    Trying to put myself in the ERG’s shoes and understand their thinking... I’ll pretend I’m Steve Baker.
    Baker was a huge behind-the-scenes apparatchik for the Leave campaign, cleverly working the angles and representing the harder Brexit wonkish Eurosceptics (such as Cash and Redwood).

    Baker has dedicated a significant part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU and deserves accolades for his orchestration of the Leave campaign. You’d therefore think he would grab the opportunity to complete his life’s work and back May’s Deal, to at least ensure we leave.

    But he didn’t, and he shows no sign of intending to do so.

    Given how much it means to him I can only think that his position is a principled one. I think his problem is that he, and other hardcore Brexiteers like him, have come to represent a portion of the electorate who will only accept a pure, hard, yet unachievable Brexit. It has been a mistake by people like Baker, who surely knew it would never be easy, to convince these voters that a pure Brexit could be done. You’ve only got to see the hard Kipperesque leavers on Twitter to witness their intransigence. They will settle for nothing less than the perfect Brexit, and Baker and co know they are boxed into a corner on that.

    By voting for May’s Deal they’d effectively be seen as traitors and would kiss goodbye to all their supporters, to the detriment of the other thing they love, the Tory party.

    My issue with people like Steve Baker (and I'm not picking on him) is that:

    1. The WA is not the endpoint. We can still use the WA to move to a WTO Brexit.
    2. The Irish border backstop - especially given what's changed in the last week - is completely misunderstood.

    Anyway. I'm livid with the lot of them. I'm sorely tempted to become an uber-Remainer, just to piss off the ERG. Really, it's only the inevitable gloating from Scott_P that holds me back.
    I can only say that up to now, most former Remain Conservatives have shown remarkable forebearance to the ERG, and that must now be at breaking point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    As expected, the DUP are relaxed about the prospect of No Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1105947029958737921?s=21
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I don't want to besmirch my computer by reading the Mail on it so could you give details as to when Steel supposedly knew about Fat Cyril ? Was it before, during or after.
    After. He asked him in 1979 and Smith didn't deny but said police took no action. The dwarf decided it was before he was a liberal mp so nothing to do with him. He was happy to sit alongside a nonce in parliament. Doesn't say if he knew about Freud
    https://order-order.com/2019/03/13/lord-steel-admits-cyril-smith-confessed/

    read that short version
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited March 2019

    I don't want to besmirch my computer by reading the Mail on it so could you give details as to when Steel supposedly knew about Fat Cyril ? Was it before, during or after.
    After. He asked him in 1979 and Smith didn't deny but said police took no action. The dwarf decided it was before he was a liberal mp so nothing to do with him. He was happy to sit alongside a nonce in parliament. Doesn't say if he knew about Freud
    Not that tubby and the beard were the only ones about whom there have been rumblings
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    I don't want to besmirch my computer by reading the Mail on it so could you give details as to when Steel supposedly knew about Fat Cyril ? Was it before, during or after.
    After. He asked him in 1979 and Smith didn't deny but said police took no action. The dwarf decided it was before he was a liberal mp so nothing to do with him. He was happy to sit alongside a nonce in parliament. Doesn't say if he knew about Freud
    Don't forget Thorpe.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Woolie,

    David Steel was a politician. They are judged by different standards. You might say he's a lying cnut (but you probably won't because you're far too polite) but I would.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Fenster said:

    Trying to put myself in the ERG’s shoes and understand their thinking... I’ll pretend I’m Steve Baker.
    Baker was a huge behind-the-scenes apparatchik for the Leave campaign, cleverly working the angles and representing the harder Brexit wonkish Eurosceptics (such as Cash and Redwood).

    Baker has dedicated a significant part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU and deserves accolades for his orchestration of the Leave campaign. You’d therefore think he would grab the opportunity to complete his life’s work and back May’s Deal, to at least ensure we leave.

    But he didn’t, and he shows no sign of intending to do so.

    Given how much it means to him I can only think that his position is a principled one. I think his problem is that he, and other hardcore Brexiteers like him, have come to represent a portion of the electorate who will only accept a pure, hard, yet unachievable Brexit. It has been a mistake by people like Baker, who surely knew it would never be easy, to convince these voters that a pure Brexit could be done. You’ve only got to see the hard Kipperesque leavers on Twitter to witness their intransigence. They will settle for nothing less than the perfect Brexit, and Baker and co know they are boxed into a corner on that.

    By voting for May’s Deal they’d effectively be seen as traitors and would kiss goodbye to all their supporters, to the detriment of the other thing they love, the Tory party.

    Revolutions only succeed when someone grasps hold of them and puts the more radical supporters to the sword. Trying to pander to and accommodate them never works.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    CD13 said:

    Mr Andrew,

    "Neither side will want to be stuck in it."

    I can give you 10 billion reasons why the EU won't mind too much. Membership fees.

    There are no membership fees in the backstop. That's one reason why it's such a phenomenally good deal for the UK.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    As expected, the DUP are relaxed about the prospect of No Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1105947029958737921?s=21

    If, and I do not expect it, a deal does go through, then the Tories should do whatever it takes, even adopting half the Labour manifesto, to avoid being beholden to the DUP. Even if it is a rigid adherence to principle and not just gamesmanship, they are simply infuriating.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kjohnw said:

    The ERG need to back TM deal now and bank the last chance to secure brexit. At the end of the day we will be out of the political institution which is a step along the way to our independence from Brussels . If the EU don’t then act in good faith we can still walk away, and go WTO

    The ERG on their own wouldn't be enough to pass the deal, would it? I think you'd still need some of the Tory Remainer rebels / DUP / Brexit-friendly Labour MPs.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    rcs1000 said:

    Fenster said:

    Trying to put myself in the ERG’s shoes and understand their thinking... I’ll pretend I’m Steve Baker.
    Baker was a huge behind-the-scenes apparatchik for the Leave campaign, cleverly working the angles and representing the harder Brexit wonkish Eurosceptics (such as Cash and Redwood).

    Baker has dedicated a significant part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU and deserves accolades for his orchestration of the Leave campaign. You’d therefore think he would grab the opportunity to complete his life’s work and back May’s Deal, to at least ensure we leave.

    But he didn’t, and he shows no sign of intending to do so.

    Given how much it means to him I can only think that his position is a principled one. I think his problem is that he, and other hardcore Brexiteers like him, have come to represent a portion of the electorate who will only accept a pure, hard, yet unachievable Brexit. It has been a mistake by people like Baker, who surely knew it would never be easy, to convince these voters that a pure Brexit could be done. You’ve only got to see the hard Kipperesque leavers on Twitter to witness their intransigence. They will settle for nothing less than the perfect Brexit, and Baker and co know they are boxed into a corner on that.

    By voting for May’s Deal they’d effectively be seen as traitors and would kiss goodbye to all their supporters, to the detriment of the other thing they love, the Tory party.

    My issue with people like Steve Baker (and I'm not picking on him) is that:

    1. The WA is not the endpoint. We can still use the WA to move to a WTO Brexit.
    2. The Irish border backstop - especially given what's changed in the last week - is completely misunderstood.

    You would think they would take the WA. See us actually leave the EU and then get rid of Theresa,

    Get a new Brexiteer leader and a new cabinet then hold an election in the Summer or autumn to get a majority to be able to move forwards with the trade talks (and the majority gives them a cushion if the trade talks go baldly and we need to have a rethink)

    Can't understand why they have got so fixated on the WA unless they are all mouth and trousers and when push comes to shove they don't actually want to leave...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    completely off topic - 2 people watching the news in the breakout area at work.

    Corbyn pops up and they both start groaning and laying into how bad he is.
    Then they said "but he is well educated"

    I didn't know these people but god was I tempted to tell them about his a level results.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    I don't want to besmirch my computer by reading the Mail on it so could you give details as to when Steel supposedly knew about Fat Cyril ? Was it before, during or after.
    After. He asked him in 1979 and Smith didn't deny but said police took no action. The dwarf decided it was before he was a liberal mp so nothing to do with him. He was happy to sit alongside a nonce in parliament. Doesn't say if he knew about Freud
    Don't forget Thorpe.
    Had some 'characters' those Liberals.
    Freud had some interesting associates in his later years
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fenster said:

    Trying to put myself in the ERG’s shoes and understand their thinking... I’ll pretend I’m Steve Baker.
    Baker was a huge behind-the-scenes apparatchik for the Leave campaign, cleverly working the angles and representing the harder Brexit wonkish Eurosceptics (such as Cash and Redwood).

    Baker has dedicated a significant part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU and deserves accolades for his orchestration of the Leave campaign. You’d therefore think he would grab the opportunity to complete his life’s work and back May’s Deal, to at least ensure we leave.

    But he didn’t, and he shows no sign of intending to do so.

    Given how much it means to him I can only think that his position is a principled one. I think his problem is that he, and other hardcore Brexiteers like him, have come to represent a portion of the electorate who will only accept a pure, hard, yet unachievable Brexit. It has been a mistake by people like Baker, who surely knew it would never be easy, to convince these voters that a pure Brexit could be done. You’ve only got to see the hard Kipperesque leavers on Twitter to witness their intransigence. They will settle for nothing less than the perfect Brexit, and Baker and co know they are boxed into a corner on that.

    By voting for May’s Deal they’d effectively be seen as traitors and would kiss goodbye to all their supporters, to the detriment of the other thing they love, the Tory party.

    My issue with people like Steve Baker (and I'm not picking on him) is that:

    1. The WA is not the endpoint. We can still use the WA to move to a WTO Brexit.
    2. The Irish border backstop - especially given what's changed in the last week - is completely misunderstood.

    Anyway. I'm livid with the lot of them. I'm sorely tempted to become an uber-Remainer, just to piss off the ERG. Really, it's only the inevitable gloating from Scott_P that holds me back.
    I can only say that up to now, most former Remain Conservatives have shown remarkable forebearance to the ERG, and that must now be at breaking point.
    The Conservative Party has changed. It used to be an organised conspiracy against the public interest. It is now two different disorganised conspiracies against the public interest.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    So all this waffle about Yvette making a mistake being persona non grata was garbage then?

    The government motion as amended passed by a much wider margin than Yvette’s original!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    On MV3 and 4. I see no reason for the DUP to support that. Labour seem to have kept their rebels consistently down to a handful and there would appear to always be more than a handful of bitter ender ERGs . The government has to change the recipe. Means go for soft Brexit, get the DUP and Labour at least partly on board and face down the Kipper faction. That's the only path through.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    edited March 2019
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Nearly 50 people, including actors Felicity Huffman and Lori Loughlin, were charged on Tuesday in what federal authorities say was a $25 million scam to help wealthy Americans get their children into elite universities like Yale and Stanford.

    The most sweeping college admissions fraud scheme ever unearthed in the United States was masterminded at a small college-preparation company based in Newport Beach, California, prosecutors said. It relied on bribes to coaches, phony test takers and even doctored photos misrepresenting non-athletic applicants as elite competitors to gain admissions for the offspring of rich parents."


    https://www.france24.com/en/20190313-usa-celebrities-wealthy-parents-charged-university-bribery-admissions-scandal

    I think their offence was perhaps to try to undercut the existing procedure of donating a couple of million to the college library fund.
    The cheapskates.

  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    CD13 said:

    I can give you 10 billion reasons why the EU won't mind too much. Membership fees.

    There are no extra fees once we enter the backstop, other than our remaining debts under the withdrawal agreement - and by 2022 those are 75% paid off (by 2024 it's sub 1 bill a year and dropping)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    rcs1000 said:

    1. The WA is not the endpoint. We can still use the WA to move to a WTO Brexit.

    How the hell do these ERG idiots not get that?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited March 2019
    kjohnw said:

    The ERG need to back TM deal now and bank the last chance to secure brexit. At the end of the day we will be out of the political institution which is a step along the way to our independence from Brussels . If the EU don’t then act in good faith we can still walk away, and go WTO

    I think it's too late. For every ERG'er who goes for the deal a Tory Remainer (thinking there is now the very real chance to stop Brexit) will vote against.

    The time to get this done was yesterday.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t want a No Deal exit. But that will happen unless the government or Parliament do something.

    And I don’t see what they are doing to stop it.

    The EU should only be prepared to grant a short extension to implement the Deal legislation.

    But, I suspect the temptation to kick the can down the road, to avoid harm to themselves, will be too great to resist. And, that's how the ERG won't win.
  • Cyclefree said:

    I don’t want a No Deal exit. But that will happen unless the government or Parliament do something.

    And I don’t see what they are doing to stop it.

    Yup.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Cooke,

    From your reference.

    "Before the backstop kicks in though, it’s also possible under the terms of the withdrawal agreement to extend the transition period. If this happens the UK would go on making some contributions to the EU budget. The size of those contributions would have to be negotiated if the UK requested a transition extension."

    Now let me guess … who decided what happens during this period? Even if it was us, do you think the Remainer MPs would hurry things along? Keir Starmer, for instance?


    Do I trust the EU? Did Greece?


  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Last 8

    Ajax (NED)
    Juventus (ITA)
    Manchester City (ENG)
    Manchester United (ENG)
    Porto (POR)
    Tottenham Hotspur (ENG)
    Barcelona (ESP)
    Liverpool (ENG)

    Please let us avoid Barcelona....

    Ha! Everyone else is praying that City and Barca get matched up!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 2019
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes. I pointed that passage out this morning.
    and as I've stated for weeks I don't think Parliament really cares what situation we end up in provided individual MPs can point the blame (or at least some of it) at others.
    There's certainly an element of that. Brexit is failing. No-one wants to be the author.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Floater said:

    completely off topic - 2 people watching the news in the breakout area at work.

    Corbyn pops up and they both start groaning and laying into how bad he is.
    Then they said "but he is well educated"

    I didn't know these people but god was I tempted to tell them about his a level results.

    Well he got access to a top notch education, but failed to take advantage.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    kle4 said:

    I don't want to besmirch my computer by reading the Mail on it so could you give details as to when Steel supposedly knew about Fat Cyril ? Was it before, during or after.
    After I think. I just thought it was an interesting story as I have seen Steel on the TV saying you should not condemn a dead man who cannot speak for himself in the past.
    https://twitter.com/MeirionTweets/status/1105903442046914560
    Very convenient which day this was revealed....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Floater said:

    completely off topic - 2 people watching the news in the breakout area at work.

    Corbyn pops up and they both start groaning and laying into how bad he is.
    Then they said "but he is well educated"

    I didn't know these people but god was I tempted to tell them about his a level results.

    Well he got access to a top notch education, but failed to take advantage.
    And he's the leader of the opposition while we are on an internet forum.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    CD13 said:

    Mr Cooke,

    From your reference.

    "Before the backstop kicks in though, it’s also possible under the terms of the withdrawal agreement to extend the transition period. If this happens the UK would go on making some contributions to the EU budget. The size of those contributions would have to be negotiated if the UK requested a transition extension."

    Now let me guess … who decided what happens during this period? Even if it was us, do you think the Remainer MPs would hurry things along? Keir Starmer, for instance?


    Do I trust the EU? Did Greece?


    That's not the backstop.
    That's a possible extension to the withdrawal period. Which is only available by mutual consent. We can't be forced into it, we have to request it.

    It's got nothing to do with the backstop, it's got nothing to do with being forced into anything, there's no power being surrendered to the EU there. We have total unilateral veto rights on that, and have done so all along.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    CD13 said:

    Mr Andrew,

    "Neither side will want to be stuck in it."

    I can give you 10 billion reasons why the EU won't mind too much. Membership fees.

    There's no membership fees in the backstop situation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t want a No Deal exit. But that will happen unless the government or Parliament do something.

    And I don’t see what they are doing to stop it.

    Parliament have shown to be excellent at saying what they don't want.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    I don't want to besmirch my computer by reading the Mail on it so could you give details as to when Steel supposedly knew about Fat Cyril ? Was it before, during or after.
    After. He asked him in 1979 and Smith didn't deny but said police took no action. The dwarf decided it was before he was a liberal mp so nothing to do with him. He was happy to sit alongside a nonce in parliament. Doesn't say if he knew about Freud
    Don't forget Thorpe.
    I'm amazed the Liberals survived.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Floater said:

    completely off topic - 2 people watching the news in the breakout area at work.

    Corbyn pops up and they both start groaning and laying into how bad he is.
    Then they said "but he is well educated"

    I didn't know these people but god was I tempted to tell them about his a level results.

    Well he got access to a top notch education, but failed to take advantage.
    To be fair on Jezzas undistinguished academic career, it wasn't as if he was trying very hard, his interests were elsewhere, more a drop out than a chucking out.

    Its not as if we have been very well served by Oxbridge graduate politicians over the years!
  • Grew up in Rochdale. Was introduced to the fat fuck on the market one Friday morning when I was around 10 years old shoppinb with my mum. He scared the bejesus out of me. Not just his size. It was the look in his eyes when he smiled at us. His eyes didn't smile, only his mouth.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    Floater said:

    completely off topic - 2 people watching the news in the breakout area at work.

    Corbyn pops up and they both start groaning and laying into how bad he is.
    Then they said "but he is well educated"

    I didn't know these people but god was I tempted to tell them about his a level results.

    Well he got access to a top notch education, but failed to take advantage.
    And he's the leader of the opposition while we are on an internet forum.
    Exactly....
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    CD13 said:

    Mr Andrew,

    "Neither side will want to be stuck in it."

    I can give you 10 billion reasons why the EU won't mind too much. Membership fees.

    What membership fees?
    Are you under the impression that the backstop involves membership fees?

    https://fullfact.org/europe/if-we-go-backstop-will-uk-be-making-any-financial-contributions-eu-period/
    this is why the Deal was so good. We got out of all the political stuff, got control of farming, fishing and a whole host of other stuff, got an end to freedom of movement for those who were othered by that stuff and stopped having to pay over vast sums of money. Yes the Customs union stuff is rubbish but it would only have been temporary as it gave us some trade benefits without having to pay.


    I do understand the DUP position given their fear of being sold out to Ireland but the ERG are just f*cking lunatics for rejecting this.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    tyson said:

    One thing is clear - any strategy there might have been to blame the EU for Brexit’s fall-out is in tatters.

    The EU really do come across as the sensible adults in the room.....
    Exactly. Anyone who still believes that if we suddenly free ourselves of the EU we are going to transform into some turbo-charged, go-getting, world beater nation really hasn't been paying attention over the last couple of years.

    Perhaps there should be another option on a second referendum: "would you prefer to abolish Westminster, sack our 600 MPs and be governed from Brussels" It would get my vote!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t want a No Deal exit. But that will happen unless the government or Parliament do something.

    And I don’t see what they are doing to stop it.

    Parliament have shown to be excellent at saying what they don't want.
    Tommorow they will probably vote against Brextending...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    CD13 said:

    Mr 67,

    May I ask if you trust the EU to act in good faith? If you do, the May deal is acceptable. I'm cynical about politicians but I'd prefer it to be our own gobshites making the decision rather than European gobshites who we have no control over.

    I suspect I'm not alone in that. I'd go along with Mrs May's deal because the European gobshites won't be able to stop themselves making things much worse.


    Edit: But I'm a softish Leaver.

    But if the EU is not acting in good faith, then we abrogate.

    Imagine you have a contract with someone. They have to deliver you 100 fish a year. You have to pay them £100.

    If they stop sending the fish, you don't send the money.

    In this case, it's terribly simple. If you believe the EU is sincere about implementing a technical solution to the Irish border, then the deal is fine. If you do not believe it, then you have to also believe that the international arbitration panel is biased against the UK, that we'd never get a fair hearing, and we couldn't use our powers as a sovereign nation to unilaterally exit the treaty...

    Bear in mind that the Withdrawal Agreement does not make UK law subservient to the ECJ. There is no "international court" with the power to order the UK to put up borders, or somesuch.

    It's bonkers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t want a No Deal exit. But that will happen unless the government or Parliament do something.

    And I don’t see what they are doing to stop it.

    The significance of today's vote is that if we arrive at five minutes to midnight, May has to revoke, or go down in history below Cameron in the Prime Ministers league table, and likely take her party down with her.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t want a No Deal exit. But that will happen unless the government or Parliament do something.

    And I don’t see what they are doing to stop it.

    Parliament have shown to be excellent at saying what they don't want.
    Tommorow they will probably vote against Brextending...
    I doubt it, although it will no doubt be a tiresome day as all manner of amendments and arguments about length of extension are thrown about.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Cooke,

    Sigh. Do you think that a Parliament with a Remain majority is going to hurry things along? A simple question. Looking at the past few months, you know the answer to that. We're going nowhere with these MPs.

    We'd have to rely on the EU becoming trustworthy or the MP balance changing. I accept you trust them, but that and £3 will buy you a pint of beer up here.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    rcs1000 said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr 67,

    May I ask if you trust the EU to act in good faith? If you do, the May deal is acceptable. I'm cynical about politicians but I'd prefer it to be our own gobshites making the decision rather than European gobshites who we have no control over.

    I suspect I'm not alone in that. I'd go along with Mrs May's deal because the European gobshites won't be able to stop themselves making things much worse.


    Edit: But I'm a softish Leaver.

    But if the EU is not acting in good faith, then we abrogate.

    Imagine you have a contract with someone. They have to deliver you 100 fish a year. You have to pay them £100.

    If they stop sending the fish, you don't send the money.

    In this case, it's terribly simple. If you believe the EU is sincere about implementing a technical solution to the Irish border, then the deal is fine. If you do not believe it, then you have to also believe that the international arbitration panel is biased against the UK, that we'd never get a fair hearing, and we couldn't use our powers as a sovereign nation to unilaterally exit the treaty...

    Bear in mind that the Withdrawal Agreement does not make UK law subservient to the ECJ. There is no "international court" with the power to order the UK to put up borders, or somesuch.

    It's bonkers.
    It really is, and with the clarifications won by the PM and Cox a few days ago it really did remove the random element of Ireland using the veto against any long term deal the commission would have agreed as we could then begin the arbitration process and exercise the option to leave the backstop once it was done.

    Truly it is a good deal, especially with the addition of the bad faith arbitration. It gave us 45 ready made trade deals for the medium term with much less time pressure to renew them which would allow for someone competent to take over from Fox and start the hard work.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fenster said:

    Trying to put myself in the ERG’s shoes and understand their thinking... I’ll pretend I’m Steve Baker.
    Baker was a huge behind-the-scenes apparatchik for the Leave campaign, cleverly working the angles and representing the harder Brexit wonkish Eurosceptics (such as Cash and Redwood).

    Baker has dedicated a significant part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU and deserves accolades for his orchestration of the Leave campaign. You’d therefore think he would grab the opportunity to complete his life’s work and back May’s Deal, to at least ensure we leave.

    But he didn’t, and he shows no sign of intending to do so.

    Given how much it means to him I can only think that his position is a principled one. I think his problem is that he, and other hardcore Brexiteers like him, have come to represent a portion of the electorate who will only accept a pure, hard, yet unachievable Brexit. It has been a mistake by people like Baker, who surely knew it would never be easy, to convince these voters that a pure Brexit could be done. You’ve only got to see the hard Kipperesque leavers on Twitter to witness their intransigence. They will settle for nothing less than the perfect Brexit, and Baker and co know they are boxed into a corner on that.

    By voting for May’s Deal they’d effectively be seen as traitors and would kiss goodbye to all their supporters, to the detriment of the other thing they love, the Tory party.

    My issue with people like Steve Baker (and I'm not picking on him) is that:

    1. The WA is not the endpoint. We can still use the WA to move to a WTO Brexit.
    2. The Irish border backstop - especially given what's changed in the last week - is completely misunderstood.

    You would think they would take the WA. See us actually leave the EU and then get rid of Theresa,

    Get a new Brexiteer leader and a new cabinet then hold an election in the Summer or autumn to get a majority to be able to move forwards with the trade talks (and the majority gives them a cushion if the trade talks go baldly and we need to have a rethink)

    Can't understand why they have got so fixated on the WA unless they are all mouth and trousers and when push comes to shove they don't actually want to leave...
    A psychiatrist writes:

    If you spend enough time telling other people that unicorns exist, then eventually you start to believe it yourself.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr rcs,

    "But if the EU is not acting in good faith, then we abrogate."

    I'm sure you know the legal wherewithal better than I do, but didn't the AG say that it would be very difficult to prove 'bad faith' and in essence we wouldn't do it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    rcs1000 said:

    In this case, it's terribly simple. If you believe the EU is sincere about implementing a technical solution to the Irish border, then the deal is fine.

    The EU is not committing to implementing a technical solution to the Irish border. They are committing to entertain the possibility that such a solution might be possible, despite the fact that any infrastructure or checks must be ruled out. It's a wild goose chase for Brexiteers.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t want a No Deal exit. But that will happen unless the government or Parliament do something.

    And I don’t see what they are doing to stop it.

    Parliament have shown to be excellent at saying what they don't want.
    Tommorow they will probably vote against Brextending...
    I doubt it, although it will no doubt be a tiresome day as all manner of amendments and arguments about length of extension are thrown about.
    So only a day's break between arguments about Cox's codpiece and arguments about length of extension?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Tory whip who unwhipped himself apparently was actually paired.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    We don’t hear much from Mortimer and his Golden Rule these days.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    rcs1000 said:

    In this case, it's terribly simple. If you believe the EU is sincere about implementing a technical solution to the Irish border, then the deal is fine.

    The EU is not committing to implementing a technical solution to the Irish border. They are committing to entertain the possibility that such a solution might be possible, despite the fact that any infrastructure or checks must be ruled out. It's a wild goose chase for Brexiteers.
    So we need to stop doing the VAT and Customs and Excise checks as well then?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    CD13 said:

    Mr rcs,

    "But if the EU is not acting in good faith, then we abrogate."

    I'm sure you know the legal wherewithal better than I do, but didn't the AG say that it would be very difficult to prove 'bad faith' and in essence we wouldn't do it?

    Not really, one scenario is that the commission negotiates an acceptable deal, the UK government legislates to pass it but Ireland veto because they don't like it, we can reasonably say that the EU negotiated in bad faith knowing that the deal would be voted down by one of its members. Essentially that arbitration process has handed the power to the commission, which works very much in our favour as we'd have been dealing with one agenda, not 27.

    Additionally, the backstop gives us a lot of breathing room, we need 5-7 years in it to establish our international trading position, get trade deals signed from the safety of the customs union.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Scenario: tomorrow hoc votes to extend a50 to June 30 if deal passes . Eu say only until May 22nd due to EU elections . Tm agrees to this date, her deal goes back next week and falls again , she finally resigns and offers to stay on as caretaker until successor chosen , BJO wins , tries to secure changes , EU says no, bjo calls GE to get mandate , parliament is dissolved, and we no deal on May 22nd
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    _Anazina_ said:

    We don’t hear much from Mortimer and his Golden Rule these days.

    He said "dream on" to me earlier after I speculated about cabinet ministers voting for the Spelman amendment. (They didn't quite, but an abstention is good enough.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    rcs1000 said:

    In this case, it's terribly simple. If you believe the EU is sincere about implementing a technical solution to the Irish border, then the deal is fine.

    The EU is not committing to implementing a technical solution to the Irish border. They are committing to entertain the possibility that such a solution might be possible, despite the fact that any infrastructure or checks must be ruled out. It's a wild goose chase for Brexiteers.
    So we need to stop doing the VAT and Customs and Excise checks as well then?
    There are no systematic VAT or Customs and Excise checks at the border.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    CD13 said:

    Mr Andrew,

    "Neither side will want to be stuck in it."

    I can give you 10 billion reasons why the EU won't mind too much. Membership fees.

    What membership fees?
    Are you under the impression that the backstop involves membership fees?

    https://fullfact.org/europe/if-we-go-backstop-will-uk-be-making-any-financial-contributions-eu-period/
    this is why the Deal was so good. We got out of all the political stuff, got control of farming, fishing and a whole host of other stuff, got an end to freedom of movement for those who were othered by that stuff and stopped having to pay over vast sums of money. Yes the Customs union stuff is rubbish but it would only have been temporary as it gave us some trade benefits without having to pay.


    I do understand the DUP position given their fear of being sold out to Ireland but the ERG are just f*cking lunatics for rejecting this.
    Indeed.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr 67,

    May I ask if you trust the EU to act in good faith? If you do, the May deal is acceptable. I'm cynical about politicians but I'd prefer it to be our own gobshites making the decision rather than European gobshites who we have no control over.

    I suspect I'm not alone in that. I'd go along with Mrs May's deal because the European gobshites won't be able to stop themselves making things much worse.


    Edit: But I'm a softish Leaver.

    But if the EU is not acting in good faith, then we abrogate.

    Imagine you have a contract with someone. They have to deliver you 100 fish a year. You have to pay them £100.

    If they stop sending the fish, you don't send the money.

    In this case, it's terribly simple. If you believe the EU is sincere about implementing a technical solution to the Irish border, then the deal is fine. If you do not believe it, then you have to also believe that the international arbitration panel is biased against the UK, that we'd never get a fair hearing, and we couldn't use our powers as a sovereign nation to unilaterally exit the treaty...

    Bear in mind that the Withdrawal Agreement does not make UK law subservient to the ECJ. There is no "international court" with the power to order the UK to put up borders, or somesuch.

    It's bonkers.
    The EU is sincere in humouring the UK about technology eventually being the solution. It's a bit like Fusion. Why rule out the possibility?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    A summary of part of Cox's opinion. ..."if there is a failure because of “intractable differences” then the UK has no lawful means of unilaterally ending the backstop protocol."

    But I am pleased to heat we pay nothing during the backstop period, assuming we ever get there. Does that mean free use of the Customs union and single market and no FOM?
  • Tory whip who unwhipped himself apparently was actually paired.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105957646262247425?s=19
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    CD13 said:

    A summary of part of Cox's opinion. ..."if there is a failure because of “intractable differences” then the UK has no lawful means of unilaterally ending the backstop protocol."

    But I am pleased to heat we pay nothing during the backstop period, assuming we ever get there. Does that mean free use of the Customs union and single market and no FOM?

    Yes. It wasn't a bad deal.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr 67,

    May I ask if you trust the EU to act in good faith? If you do, the May deal is acceptable. I'm cynical about politicians but I'd prefer it to be our own gobshites making the decision rather than European gobshites who we have no control over.

    I suspect I'm not alone in that. I'd go along with Mrs May's deal because the European gobshites won't be able to stop themselves making things much worse.


    Edit: But I'm a softish Leaver.

    But if the EU is not acting in good faith, then we abrogate.

    Imagine you have a contract with someone. They have to deliver you 100 fish a year. You have to pay them £100.

    If they stop sending the fish, you don't send the money.

    In this case, it's terribly simple. If you believe the EU is sincere about implementing a technical solution to the Irish border, then the deal is fine. If you do not believe it, then you have to also believe that the international arbitration panel is biased against the UK, that we'd never get a fair hearing, and we couldn't use our powers as a sovereign nation to unilaterally exit the treaty...

    Bear in mind that the Withdrawal Agreement does not make UK law subservient to the ECJ. There is no "international court" with the power to order the UK to put up borders, or somesuch.

    It's bonkers.
    The EU is sincere in humouring the UK about technology eventually being the solution. It's a bit like Fusion. Why rule out the possibility?
    Blah blah blah.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    kjohnw said:

    Scenario: tomorrow hoc votes to extend a50 to June 30 if deal passes . Eu say only until May 22nd due to EU elections . Tm agrees to this date, her deal goes back next week and falls again , she finally resigns and offers to stay on as caretaker until successor chosen , BJO wins , tries to secure changes , EU says no, bjo calls GE to get mandate , parliament is dissolved, and we no deal on May 22nd

    This falls down at "she finally resigns".
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    CD13 said:

    Mr Andrew,

    "Neither side will want to be stuck in it."

    I can give you 10 billion reasons why the EU won't mind too much. Membership fees.

    What membership fees?
    Are you under the impression that the backstop involves membership fees?

    https://fullfact.org/europe/if-we-go-backstop-will-uk-be-making-any-financial-contributions-eu-period/
    this is why the Deal was so good. We got out of all the political stuff, got control of farming, fishing and a whole host of other stuff, got an end to freedom of movement for those who were othered by that stuff and stopped having to pay over vast sums of money. Yes the Customs union stuff is rubbish but it would only have been temporary as it gave us some trade benefits without having to pay.


    I do understand the DUP position given their fear of being sold out to Ireland but the ERG are just f*cking lunatics for rejecting this.
    I guess they didn't believe it. They were right to do so, if that's the case.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    kjohnw said:

    Scenario: tomorrow hoc votes to extend a50 to June 30 if deal passes . Eu say only until May 22nd due to EU elections . Tm agrees to this date, her deal goes back next week and falls again , she finally resigns and offers to stay on as caretaker until successor chosen , BJO wins , tries to secure changes , EU says no, bjo calls GE to get mandate , parliament is dissolved, and we no deal on May 22nd

    No Deal in May does seem the likeliest outcome, unless enough opposition MPs come round to supporting the deal to avoid it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Tory whip who unwhipped himself apparently was actually paired.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105957646262247425?s=19
    Isn't the difference between a three line and a two line whip, that pairing is not allowed?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    kjohnw said:

    Scenario: tomorrow hoc votes to extend a50 to June 30 if deal passes . Eu say only until May 22nd due to EU elections . Tm agrees to this date, her deal goes back next week and falls again , she finally resigns and offers to stay on as caretaker until successor chosen , BJO wins , tries to secure changes , EU says no, bjo calls GE to get mandate , parliament is dissolved, and we no deal on May 22nd

    Not sure Big John Owls is in such a position. Though, doubt he could be any worse.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    rcs1000 said:

    In this case, it's terribly simple. If you believe the EU is sincere about implementing a technical solution to the Irish border, then the deal is fine.

    The EU is not committing to implementing a technical solution to the Irish border. They are committing to entertain the possibility that such a solution might be possible, despite the fact that any infrastructure or checks must be ruled out. It's a wild goose chase for Brexiteers.
    So we need to stop doing the VAT and Customs and Excise checks as well then?
    There are no systematic VAT or Customs and Excise checks at the border.
    There are intelligence led operations which include Customs and Excise on both sides of the border stopping vehicles just after they cross or even as they cross when they believe them to be involved in criminal activity or tax evasion. There are cameras at major border crossings already and there has been an increase in customs activity over the last few years to deal with fuel smuggling.

    There have also been a whole series of operations over the last couple of years to deal with people smuggling which have involved the Garda stopping buses at the border to remove people suspected of being illegal immigrants.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Perhaps the mutual incomprehension between Brexiteers lies in the fact that some of them wanted to be Canada to the EU's USA, but others wanted to be the Confederacy.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    CD13 said:


    But I am pleased to heat we pay nothing during the backstop period, assuming we ever get there. Does that mean free use of the Customs union and single market and no FOM?

    Afaicr: Yes, for NI only, and yes.

  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    welshowl said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Andrew,

    "Neither side will want to be stuck in it."

    I can give you 10 billion reasons why the EU won't mind too much. Membership fees.

    What membership fees?
    Are you under the impression that the backstop involves membership fees?

    https://fullfact.org/europe/if-we-go-backstop-will-uk-be-making-any-financial-contributions-eu-period/
    this is why the Deal was so good. We got out of all the political stuff, got control of farming, fishing and a whole host of other stuff, got an end to freedom of movement for those who were othered by that stuff and stopped having to pay over vast sums of money. Yes the Customs union stuff is rubbish but it would only have been temporary as it gave us some trade benefits without having to pay.


    I do understand the DUP position given their fear of being sold out to Ireland but the ERG are just f*cking lunatics for rejecting this.
    Indeed.
    It is quite remarkable that finally, after about 3 and a half years of war about Brexit, pretty much everyone on this website agrees about something
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr 67,

    May I ask if you trust the EU to act in good faith? If you do, the May deal is acceptable. I'm cynical about politicians but I'd prefer it to be our own gobshites making the decision rather than European gobshites who we have no control over.

    I suspect I'm not alone in that. I'd go along with Mrs May's deal because the European gobshites won't be able to stop themselves making things much worse.


    Edit: But I'm a softish Leaver.

    But if the EU is not acting in good faith, then we abrogate.

    Imagine you have a contract with someone. They have to deliver you 100 fish a year. You have to pay them £100.

    If they stop sending the fish, you don't send the money.

    In this case, it's terribly simple. If you believe the EU is sincere about implementing a technical solution to the Irish border, then the deal is fine. If you do not believe it, then you have to also believe that the international arbitration panel is biased against the UK, that we'd never get a fair hearing, and we couldn't use our powers as a sovereign nation to unilaterally exit the treaty...

    Bear in mind that the Withdrawal Agreement does not make UK law subservient to the ECJ. There is no "international court" with the power to order the UK to put up borders, or somesuch.

    It's bonkers.
    The EU is sincere in humouring the UK about technology eventually being the solution. It's a bit like Fusion. Why rule out the possibility?
    Blah blah blah.
    Indeed that's what the EU thinks about the technology "solution"
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    MaxPB said:

    CD13 said:

    A summary of part of Cox's opinion. ..."if there is a failure because of “intractable differences” then the UK has no lawful means of unilaterally ending the backstop protocol."

    But I am pleased to heat we pay nothing during the backstop period, assuming we ever get there. Does that mean free use of the Customs union and single market and no FOM?

    Yes. It wasn't a bad deal.
    I have to admit I have come round to TM deal it’s a lot better than the lazy mps realise , and the backstop actually has some benefits to the uk giving us frictionless trade without having to pay in and no fom. It’s probably the best we can get for now , dup and erg need to grow up and think about the good of the country and concentrate on destroying Marxist Corbyn
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fenster said:

    Trying to put myself in the ERG’s shoes and understand their thinking... I’ll pretend I’m Steve Baker.
    Baker was a huge behind-the-scenes apparatchik for the Leave campaign, cleverly working the angles and representing the harder Brexit wonkish Eurosceptics (such as Cash and Redwood).

    Baker has dedicated a significant part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU and deserves accolades for his orchestration of the Leave campaign. You’d therefore think he would grab the opportunity to complete his life’s work and back May’s Deal, to at least ensure we leave.

    But he didn’t, and he shows no sign of intending to do so.

    Given how much it means to him I can only think that his position is a principled one. I think his problem is that he, and other hardcore Brexiteers like him, have come to represent a portion of the electorate who will only accept a pure, hard, yet unachievable Brexit. It has been a mistake by people like Baker, who surely knew it would never be easy, to convince these voters that a pure Brexit could be done. You’ve only got to see the hard Kipperesque leavers on Twitter to witness their intransigence. They will settle for nothing less than the perfect Brexit, and Baker and co know they are boxed into a corner on that.

    By voting for May’s Deal they’d effectively be seen as traitors and would kiss goodbye to all their supporters, to the detriment of the other thing they love, the Tory party.

    My issue with people like Steve Baker (and I'm not picking on him) is that:

    1. The WA is not the endpoint. We can still use the WA to move to a WTO Brexit.
    2. The Irish border backstop - especially given what's changed in the last week - is completely misunderstood.

    Anyway. I'm livid with the lot of them. I'm sorely tempted to become an uber-Remainer, just to piss off the ERG. Really, it's only the inevitable gloating from Scott_P that holds me back.
    I can only say that up to now, most former Remain Conservatives have shown remarkable forebearance to the ERG, and that must now be at breaking point.
    The Conservative Party has changed. It used to be an organised conspiracy against the public interest. It is now two different disorganised conspiracies against the public interest.
    +1 :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Andrew said:

    CD13 said:


    But I am pleased to heat we pay nothing during the backstop period, assuming we ever get there. Does that mean free use of the Customs union and single market and no FOM?

    Afaicr: Yes, for NI only, and yes.

    No, the EU was loath to give it to us but they extended the backstop to the whole of the UK, then in another concession they gave us a reasonably easy way out. There's only so many times they could say "that's not good enough" before we would start the abritration process.
  • Floater said:

    completely off topic - 2 people watching the news in the breakout area at work.

    Corbyn pops up and they both start groaning and laying into how bad he is.
    Then they said "but he is well educated"

    I didn't know these people but god was I tempted to tell them about his a level results.

    Well he got access to a top notch education, but failed to take advantage.
    And he's the leader of the opposition while we are on an internet forum.
    I wouldn't trade my life for his. He's done fuck all that I'm jealous of, apart from his earning power. And "earning" is being generous, like the vast majority of the great and the good.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr 67,

    May I ask if you trust the EU to act in good faith? If you do, the May deal is acceptable. I'm cynical about politicians but I'd prefer it to be our own gobshites making the decision rather than European gobshites who we have no control over.

    I suspect I'm not alone in that. I'd go along with Mrs May's deal because the European gobshites won't be able to stop themselves making things much worse.


    Edit: But I'm a softish Leaver.

    But if the EU is not acting in good faith, then we abrogate.

    Imagine you have a contract with someone. They have to deliver you 100 fish a year. You have to pay them £100.

    If they stop sending the fish, you don't send the money.

    In this case, it's terribly simple. If you believe the EU is sincere about implementing a technical solution to the Irish border, then the deal is fine. If you do not believe it, then you have to also believe that the international arbitration panel is biased against the UK, that we'd never get a fair hearing, and we couldn't use our powers as a sovereign nation to unilaterally exit the treaty...

    Bear in mind that the Withdrawal Agreement does not make UK law subservient to the ECJ. There is no "international court" with the power to order the UK to put up borders, or somesuch.

    It's bonkers.
    The EU is sincere in humouring the UK about technology eventually being the solution. It's a bit like Fusion. Why rule out the possibility?
    Blah blah blah.
    Indeed that's what the EU thinks about the technology "solution"
    Honestly, it's people like you that drive the country to the brink of no deal.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Off-topic:

    Both the back boxes have been retrieved after the Boeing 737Max crash the other day. The Ethiopian authorities are so happy with the way the Americans and Boeing have handled things so far they're sending the boxes to be analysed at BEA.

    Which is in Paris.

    Yes, the home country of Boeing's biggest rival (it sounds like we were in the running for it as well).

    That's got to hurt the pride of Boeing and the FAA.

    And in related news, the scuttlebut is that data from another satellite system shows the flight had a very similar profile to the one that crashed at the end of last year, and it was this info that caused Canada and the US to finally stop flights.

    Possibly the a/c was registered in France? A lot of airlines register their aircraft in developed countries to reassure their passengers that they are well regulated. A lot of Aeroflot's planes are registered in France for instance.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Perhaps the mutual incomprehension between Brexiteers lies in the fact that some of them wanted to be Canada to the EU's USA, but others wanted to be the Confederacy.

    Nice :wink:
This discussion has been closed.