I can see why the EU are not being seduced by the lemma of banking the WA and then that will inevitably lead to further divergence. The government is dying before our eyes and the Corbyn firewall isn't going to last forever so there is a real chance of a change of government to a much more europhile administration before we even get to the end of the transition period. At which point the tide may flow the other way.
No deal is much, much harder to reverse and is therefore a prize worth pursuing. If you really want to leave it's the only logical course of action.
That hangs on the assumption that the EU will agree an extension for no reason and then keep doing it, which is pretty much the opposite of what they're saying.
Correct.
I'm assuming they're not going to fuck over Ireland and their own voters for no discernible benefit or principle. But some of them currently are saying they are, and I only need to be wrong about one out of 27 for the whole thing to go up in flames.
Yeah; I just can't see what the incentive would be for the EU in denying us an extension.
Sure, they're (understandably) unwilling to grant us a Brexit deal which gives us more favourable terms than we have now, but an extension would mean the SAME terms as we have now, so I can't see what their issue would be.
I can see why the EU are not being seduced by the lemma of banking the WA and then that will inevitably lead to further divergence. The government is dying before our eyes and the Corbyn firewall isn't going to last forever so there is a real chance of a change of government to a much more europhile administration before we even get to the end of the transition period. At which point the tide may flow the other way.
No deal is much, much harder to reverse and is therefore a prize worth pursuing. If you really want to leave it's the only logical course of action.
I think No Deal is more likely to be reversed than an orderly Brexit.
People are talking like everything's stuck, but everything isn't stuck. It was stuck, but now it's unstuck and we're getting to the endgame. TMay just changed her position on an extension, so she no longer plans to try to vandalize the EU elections. So the next moves are:
* MPs vote for an extension, which will pass * At some point (I'm not sure when) MPs vote a Deal vs Remain referendum. If this passes the EU will almost definitely agree the extension, the voters vote and you have Deal or Remain, either gets you out of the treacle. * If this hasn't happened and doesn't look like it will then we have to see whether the 27 agree an extension, which is a risk (unanimity, declared anti-faffing stances etc) but they probably will since the alternative is to set the British and Irish economies on fire, and if you recently spilled some petrol in your house, you really don't want to see what happens if your neighbour's house catches on fire. Once they do this you repeat indefinitely, so it's Gimp Remain. * At any point during the above the ERG and DUP can kill the Remainist outcomes by voting for TMay's deal.
So the ERG almost certainly aren't going to win, but they also retain the ability to take a draw, and I don't think there's any particular downside for them to continuing to play until they're one move away from losing.
That hangs on the assumption that the EU will agree an extension for no reason and then keep doing it, which is pretty much the opposite of what they're saying.
The EU will grant an extension for Remain v Deal EUref2 (maybe Norway Plus too ie a significant change in the UK's position and towards a softer Brexit or no Brexit at all) and tonight's votes made clear the Commons would vote for that over No Deal
I don't want to besmirch my computer by reading the Mail on it so could you give details as to when Steel supposedly knew about Fat Cyril ? Was it before, during or after.
After. He asked him in 1979 and Smith didn't deny but said police took no action. The dwarf decided it was before he was a liberal mp so nothing to do with him. He was happy to sit alongside a nonce in parliament. Doesn't say if he knew about Freud
Don't forget Thorpe.
I generally stick up for politicians of all parties, but I actually feel pretty shocked about Steel, who I've always quite liked. You decide that a one of your close associates is probably a child abuser and you do...nothing? You let him carry on? That's incredible.
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
It feels to me like we are in our Red double-decker bus nearing the chasm.
The government believed that their bridge / deal would take us safely to the other side of that chasm, into a different place. The ERG believe that we need no bridge and will safely jump over to the sunlit uplands. Parliament are screaming about the chasm, have refused to let the driver use the bridge and are arguing about what new type of bridge we need, whether we can loop round and try again or put the brakes on.
However the bus is still heading for the chasm, we are running out of time and the driver keeps pointing ahead and saying "make your mind up please".
I now think we will go over the edge. Not because the majority want it but because they can't act together to agree on a viable alternative. So yes, the ERG will win.
I'm really confused as to why May whipped the vote against the motion. I thought she had come out as on balance in favour of extension in preference to no deal for the sake of the precious Union, but then she didn't seem to care so much about the Union by whipping the vote in that way. What gives?
Wasn't it (maybe) because she still has hopes of presenting the House of Commons with a Deal/No Deal choice in April, and therefore wanted to rule out No Deal only in March?
Not delaying at all to create such a crisis point on March 28th is surely preferable to that scenario and, until yesterday that looked like her intention.
managing a No deal Brexit still very likely to happen imo because it is least damaging political position for party of government to preside over.
If we don’t manage a no deal Brexit ourselves we will need to ask for A50 extension, that extension WILL come with strings, those strings will be EU taking control of Britain’s Brexit. I don’t normally say Boris is right. From this position “the only path to self respect” for Britain is no deal. If May cannot get her negotiation through parliament there are only two options available, managing a no deal Brexit, or allowing the EU to take control of Britain’s Brexit, and how humiliating in practice that will be.
We must wake up to the fact anything that takes no deal off the table, or any motion or amendment asking for extension is in reality handing control of Britain’s Brexit to the EU, something surely politically far harder to go with than managing a no deal because it couldn’t be spun any positive way? Extension means Britain will accept strings, Imagine yourself a spin doctor, having to defend those strings, British Government and the People’s brexit at the mercy of the EU it will be seen as weak, its effectively failed leadership.
So Ask yourself which is the worst option for the Conservative Government and Prime minister, managing a no deal Brexit or allowing EU to take control of Britain’s Brexit via strings, those strings in hands of Tusk, our negotiation our Brexit on the end of those strings. how would you spin it? Corbyn at his most politically naive and stupid has been pushing for no deal come off negotiating table for months, can you see Gove, May, Hunt, Javid joining him in such an insanely weak negotiating position for Britain to be in? Such a surrender as accepting EU strings and handing Brexit upper hand to EU?
Without doubt all political leaders, parties, cabinets and governments take the least damaging decision politically, we are in agreement this fact? So the equation is straightforward, which plays out as most politically damaging if its the only two remaining options this month, handing control of Brexit to the EU, or managing a no deal Brexit and building up from there?
People big up no deal brexit like it’s end of the world. But an extension with strings is politically very very difficult. This post is me saying don’t underestimate how difficult,
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
While we are (or aren't!) on the subject of Ms. Nandy. She has good value as next Labour leader. Female, BME, but Hindu, not scary Moslem, northern, pragmatic and nuanced. Seems to put some thought in to her positions. Not overly associated with any particular faction, and a generation jump from Corbyn/ May. After another Corbyn GE loss, or a failed JC govt, she isn't associated with his regime. Nor with the Blair/Brown era. A complete reset. I have a cheeky £5 at 80s.
That hangs on the assumption that the EU will agree an extension for no reason and then keep doing it, which is pretty much the opposite of what they're saying.
Correct.
I'm assuming they're not going to fuck over Ireland and their own voters for no discernible benefit or principle. But some of them currently are saying they are, and I only need to be wrong about one out of 27 for the whole thing to go up in flames.
Yeah; I just can't see what the incentive would be for the EU in denying us an extension.
Sure, they're (understandably) unwilling to grant us a Brexit deal which gives us more favourable terms than we have now, but an extension would mean the SAME terms as we have now, so I can't see what their issue would be.
Right, Gimp Remain is substantially less favourable than the status quo, since you obey all the rules but everybody ignores you when making them, and you may not even be in the room. So it's not like everyone else is going to be wanting one too.
I can also see why they'd all be saying "stop faffing and leave" for public consumption: They don't want to be accused of forcing Britain to stay, and the uncertainty and drama is a genuine PITA. But I think Gimp Remain is also preferable from that perspective to Panicked Last-Minute Revoke, let alone the car crash.
I can see why the EU are not being seduced by the lemma of banking the WA and then that will inevitably lead to further divergence. The government is dying before our eyes and the Corbyn firewall isn't going to last forever so there is a real chance of a change of government to a much more europhile administration before we even get to the end of the transition period. At which point the tide may flow the other way.
No deal is much, much harder to reverse and is therefore a prize worth pursuing. If you really want to leave it's the only logical course of action.
I think No Deal is more likely to be reversed than an orderly Brexit.
I agree, but I suspect most No Dealers share the perception of Dura Ace on this matter.
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
David Amess was skewered in Brasseye, wasn't he?
I'd have no idea.
Many of these longstanding MPs don't seem to have held any senior positions if the 'notes' sections are an indication, with Clarke being the obvious exception. Being content to muddle along as a constituency focused MP a recipe for long service?
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
Showing your youth there! David Amess was the face of the 1992 election - when he carried Basildon (in those days a key marginal) it was clear that Major had somehow pulled it off. Later, he became better known for being duped by Chris Morris in the brilliant Cake drug episode of Brasseye.
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
David Amess was Basildon Man back in the 1992 election. Roger Gale I haven't seen on TV since the Major government I think. Most remarkable survivor is maybe Geoffrey Robinson - who was briefly Paymaster General but whose loan to Peter Mandelson caused his own demise and Mandelson's first resignation.
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
Harriet Harman is 7th???
1982 by-election apparently, at a spry 32.
Given Skinner is 87 and still kicking around she could easily serve longer than him if she wanted.
Nearly all these veterans are Knights or The Rt Hon, I can only assume those without are the sort who object to any such honours talk.
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
Harriet Harman is 7th???
1982 by-election apparently, at a spry 32.
Given Skinner is 87 and still kicking around she could easily serve longer than him if she wanted.
Remember it well. Doesn't seem 37 years ago...I quite fancied her then! O tempora...
I can see why the EU are not being seduced by the lemma of banking the WA and then that will inevitably lead to further divergence. The government is dying before our eyes and the Corbyn firewall isn't going to last forever so there is a real chance of a change of government to a much more europhile administration before we even get to the end of the transition period. At which point the tide may flow the other way.
No deal is much, much harder to reverse and is therefore a prize worth pursuing. If you really want to leave it's the only logical course of action.
I think No Deal is more likely to be reversed than an orderly Brexit.
I agree, but I suspect most No Dealers share the perception of Dura Ace on this matter.
It's also worth bearing in mind in that 1m of the 17.4m gammons who voted leave have now been gathered into the dark wings of Azrael, the Mohammedan angel of the sepulchre and that new voters are hatching at the rate 3:1 in favour of remain. The ERG know that the demographics are working against them so the moment is now.
PS Lovely and vague about the kind of referendum involved...
It’s drafted to put Corbyn on the spot, because it doesn’t rule out the referendum happening after a general election in which a Labour government decides which Brexit deal to put as the Leave option.
I predicted this yesterday. If Souvry and co can do this then why can't 5 ERGers do so?
They should. May will keep coming back unless someone takes her down, and only parliament can do that unless her entire Cabinet resign en masse and no one accepts an appointment to replace them.
While we are (or aren't!) on the subject of Ms. Nandy. She has good value as next Labour leader. Female, BME, but Hindu, not scary Moslem, northern, pragmatic and nuanced. Seems to put some thought in to her positions. Not overly associated with any particular faction, and a generation jump from Corbyn/ May. After another Corbyn GE loss, or a failed JC govt, she isn't associated with his regime. Nor with the Blair/Brown era. A complete reset. I have a cheeky £5 at 80s.
That’s a nice wager (and don’t worry, I now know which female Greater Manchester MP whose name begins with L we are talking about!)
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
Showing your youth there! David Amess was the face of the 1992 election - when he carried Basildon (in those days a key marginal) it was clear that Major had somehow pulled it off. Later, he became better known for being duped by Chris Morris in the brilliant Cake drug episode of Brasseye.
While we are (or aren't!) on the subject of Ms. Nandy. She has good value as next Labour leader. Female, BME, but Hindu, not scary Moslem, northern, pragmatic and nuanced. Seems to put some thought in to her positions. Not overly associated with any particular faction, and a generation jump from Corbyn/ May. After another Corbyn GE loss, or a failed JC govt, she isn't associated with his regime. Nor with the Blair/Brown era. A complete reset. I have a cheeky £5 at 80s.
That’s a nice wager (and don’t worry, I now know which female Greater Manchester MP whose name begins with L we are talking about!)
Be just my luck if next Labour leader is Lucy Powell
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
David Amess was Basildon Man back in the 1992 election. Roger Gale I haven't seen on TV since the Major government I think. Most remarkable survivor is maybe Geoffrey Robinson - who was briefly Paymaster General but whose loan to Peter Mandelson caused his own demise and Mandelson's first resignation.
Amess gave up on Basildon and a marginal seat for the sunnier climbs for the Tories of Leigh on Sea (aka Southend West! He apparently represents the best place to live in the whole of the UK according to Rightmove - no doubt thanks to his hard work since 1997!
While we are (or aren't!) on the subject of Ms. Nandy. She has good value as next Labour leader. Female, BME, but Hindu, not scary Moslem, northern, pragmatic and nuanced. Seems to put some thought in to her positions. Not overly associated with any particular faction, and a generation jump from Corbyn/ May. After another Corbyn GE loss, or a failed JC govt, she isn't associated with his regime. Nor with the Blair/Brown era. A complete reset. I have a cheeky £5 at 80s.
That’s a nice wager (and don’t worry, I now know which female Greater Manchester MP whose name begins with L we are talking about!)
Be just my luck if next Labour leader is Lucy Powell
Ha! That would be a most unfortunate twist in the tale!
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
Showing your youth there! David Amess was the face of the 1992 election - when he carried Basildon (in those days a key marginal) it was clear that Major had somehow pulled it off. Later, he became better known for being duped by Chris Morris in the brilliant Cake drug episode of Brasseye.
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
David Amess was Basildon Man back in the 1992 election. Roger Gale I haven't seen on TV since the Major government I think. Most remarkable survivor is maybe Geoffrey Robinson - who was briefly Paymaster General but whose loan to Peter Mandelson caused his own demise and Mandelson's first resignation.
Amess gave up on Basildon and a marginal seat for the sunnier climbs for the Tories of Leigh on Sea (aka Southend West! He apparently represents the best place to live in the whole of the UK according to Rightmove - no doubt thanks to his hard work since 1997!
A smart career move given what happened in 1997...
On MPs' tenures, Sir Peter Tapsell was elected in 1959 (i.e. during Harold Macmillan's premiership) and served until 2015.
David Winnick is the most recent MP to have seved during the 1960s (elected for the first time in 1966), but he was out of Parliament between 1970 and 1979. He lost his seat in 2017.
Both Sir Gerald Kaufman and Michael Meacher were first elected in 1970 (like Clarke and Skinner) but both died during the 2015-2017 Parliament. Both were probably at the height of their fame in the 1980s; the former made the 'longest suicide note in history' comment about the 1983 Labour manifesto, and the latter was a key player on the Labour left during the factional infighting of that decade.
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
Showing your youth there! David Amess was the face of the 1992 election - when he carried Basildon (in those days a key marginal) it was clear that Major had somehow pulled it off. Later, he became better known for being duped by Chris Morris in the brilliant Cake drug episode of Brasseye.
While we are (or aren't!) on the subject of Ms. Nandy. She has good value as next Labour leader. Female, BME, but Hindu, not scary Moslem, northern, pragmatic and nuanced. Seems to put some thought in to her positions. Not overly associated with any particular faction, and a generation jump from Corbyn/ May. After another Corbyn GE loss, or a failed JC govt, she isn't associated with his regime. Nor with the Blair/Brown era. A complete reset. I have a cheeky £5 at 80s.
Lisa Nandy would be out of her depth leading Manchester Council, let alone the country
Voting with Labour to bring the government down . That will go down well with the rest of the party , they refuse to accept reality and are unhinged .
They are unhinged (but no more so than Grieve and Soubry) but at this point you really think they care what the rest of the Conservative Party thinks?
Most of them probably know that whatever happens their political careers are likely finished anyway... All they care about now is securing Brexit by whatever means they can.
If that means VONC their government one week before 29th March so that time runs out for Parliament to delay or revoke they'll do it (just as Soubry and Grieve would if they thought that course of action could stop Brexit altogether)
Fun fact, there's only 51 MPs who have been serving in Parliament continuously since before the Labour landslide in 1997, only 105 who have served without interruption in the 21st century.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
Showing your youth there! David Amess was the face of the 1992 election - when he carried Basildon (in those days a key marginal) it was clear that Major had somehow pulled it off. Later, he became better known for being duped by Chris Morris in the brilliant Cake drug episode of Brasseye.
Could be a good test of how old we are - not the 'young policeman' test, but 'how many MPs have been elected since you were born?'
Hmm, 630 even for me. Not a good one after all then.
Perhaps MPs born after you - 18 for me. Damn old farts ruining things.
My Grandad used to say you are only old when you are older than the PM. On which basis, I am eternally grateful to Cameron for being 47 days older than me. Or else I'd have been old these past 9 years.
While we are (or aren't!) on the subject of Ms. Nandy. She has good value as next Labour leader. Female, BME, but Hindu, not scary Moslem, northern, pragmatic and nuanced. Seems to put some thought in to her positions. Not overly associated with any particular faction, and a generation jump from Corbyn/ May. After another Corbyn GE loss, or a failed JC govt, she isn't associated with his regime. Nor with the Blair/Brown era. A complete reset. I have a cheeky £5 at 80s.
Lisa Nandy would be out of her depth leading Manchester Council, let alone the country
Good bet only. Not overloaded with ability on either side.
Voting with Labour to bring the government down . That will go down well with the rest of the party , they refuse to accept reality and are unhinged .
They'd lose the Whip and couldn't stand in any GE (or if they did stand as "Pro-Brexit Conservative" likely split the Con vote increasing Opposition wins)
Voting with Labour to bring the government down . That will go down well with the rest of the party , they refuse to accept reality and are unhinged .
They'd lose the Whip and couldn't stand in any GE (or if they did stand as "Pro-Brexit Conservative" likely split the Con vote increasing Opposition wins)
Again though I doubt they care at this point. They'll be willing to try anything to secure "pure" Brexit as for them the "prize" is much greater than mere party politics... And the same is true of arch remainers to be fair....
While we are (or aren't!) on the subject of Ms. Nandy. She has good value as next Labour leader. Female, BME, but Hindu, not scary Moslem, northern, pragmatic and nuanced. Seems to put some thought in to her positions. Not overly associated with any particular faction, and a generation jump from Corbyn/ May. After another Corbyn GE loss, or a failed JC govt, she isn't associated with his regime. Nor with the Blair/Brown era. A complete reset. I have a cheeky £5 at 80s.
Lisa Nandy would be out of her depth leading Manchester Council, let alone the country
Lisa did get some more good news tonight - her local council in Wigan has been named council of the year by the Local Government Chronicle.
The role of David Mundell in helping to ensure no hard brexit is another example of Scotland Tories realising that there is no future for them with a hard brexit. The English sheep may accept a hard brexit even if their parliament has voted against it but the Scots will not.
PS Lovely and vague about the kind of referendum involved...
Is there anyone there who hasn't been a die hard Remainer all along?
Dr Wollaston is a former Leaver.
LOL. No really.
She was a plant so obvious Johnny English would be embarrassed.
Are you on to Steve Baker yet?
Whatever people may say about Steve Baker he is a true believer. If he isn't he deserves an oscar for best actor in a supporting role.
You can't blame people like Steve Baker for campaigning for what they believe in. But some MPs voted against the deal for purely cynical reasons, because for instance they hoped it might make a general election more likely, (because we've only had 2 general elections in the last 4 years, how undemocratic).
https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-uk/the-young-people-staring-down-an-endless-brexit For a number of reasons, Brexit has been an invidious political process. But one of the most unsettling has been the mismatch between the generations that voted for Britain’s departure and the generations that will have to bear the consequences. Around seventy per cent of those under the age of twenty-four voted Remain, while sixty per cent of those older than sixty-five voted Leave. “It’s really, really scary to watch politicians who are trying to implement something which the vast majority of us don’t want and have never wanted,” Spirit said. On January 19th, four days after the first defeat of May’s Brexit deal, OFOC celebrated what it called Cross-Over Day, on which the number of new voters entering the electoral register since the referendum should, in theory, have outnumbered the older, pro-Brexit voters who have died in the same period. “It’s quite morbid, but it does raise an interesting discussion about, like, who matters in a democracy,” Spirit told me. “It’s going to be all of the talent, energy, ingenuity of my generation who are going to be having to make sense of Brexit, which they don’t think has ever made any sense for our country.”...
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
Yes, that looked really bad, although now they're claiming they were going to do it anyway and that Trump just got the announcement in first. They should have grounded it themselves immediately.
Indeed, RIP. He seemed a nice chap, and survived decades in a very difficult role.
His death could scarcely have happened at a worse time for F1: the day before the first practice of the season, with lots of technical decisions about legality to be made. For instance Williams, who despite having turned up late with the slowest car, might have made a car that is also illegal.
Whoever replaces him (and the role probably demands two or three people) could shape the upcoming season.
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
Feck, that’s awfully sad news to wake up to, and his loss will cast a large shadow over the first weekend of the season. A good man doing a very difficult and stressful job very well for a long time.
There had been talk of him retiring for a few years now, I hope the FIA have a succession plan ready to go.
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
That’s a very good article. Finally they get a pilot to write something that makes sense to pilots, rather than the usual journalistic crap (AI, anyone?) that reads as complete nonsense to anyone who knows the industry.
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
"Between 2010 and 2019, exactly one person died in a crash on a U.S. passenger airline. (That was the person killed aboard a Southwest flight in 2018, when an engine exploded and the debris hit her window.) Three other people died in a crash at San Francisco International Airport in 2013, when a captain flying for the Korean carrier Asiana badly misjudged a landing.
By comparison: About 100 Americans die every day in car crashes, and a similar number from gunshots, and a larger number from opioids and other drugs."
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
"Between 2010 and 2019, exactly one person died in a crash on a U.S. passenger airline. (That was the person killed aboard a Southwest flight in 2018, when an engine exploded and the debris hit her window.) Three other people died in a crash at San Francisco International Airport in 2013, when a captain flying for the Korean carrier Asiana badly misjudged a landing.
By comparison: About 100 Americans die every day in car crashes, and a similar number from gunshots, and a larger number from opioids and other drugs."
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
"Between 2010 and 2019, exactly one person died in a crash on a U.S. passenger airline. (That was the person killed aboard a Southwest flight in 2018, when an engine exploded and the debris hit her window.) Three other people died in a crash at San Francisco International Airport in 2013, when a captain flying for the Korean carrier Asiana badly misjudged a landing.
By comparison: About 100 Americans die every day in car crashes, and a similar number from gunshots, and a larger number from opioids and other drugs."
On the Sea Harrier course they used to tell us that it crashed, on average, every 8,800 flight hours to make us pay attention. We flew around 50/hours month so those who were good at maths usually decided they preferred helicopters.
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
That’s a very good article. Finally they get a pilot to write something that makes sense to pilots, rather than the usual journalistic crap (AI, anyone?) that reads as complete nonsense to anyone who knows the industry.
Rather that they happen to have one writing for them. Fallows is a great journalist (and at one time was Carter’s chief speechwriter).
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
"Between 2010 and 2019, exactly one person died in a crash on a U.S. passenger airline. (That was the person killed aboard a Southwest flight in 2018, when an engine exploded and the debris hit her window.) Three other people died in a crash at San Francisco International Airport in 2013, when a captain flying for the Korean carrier Asiana badly misjudged a landing.
By comparison: About 100 Americans die every day in car crashes, and a similar number from gunshots, and a larger number from opioids and other drugs."
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
"Between 2010 and 2019, exactly one person died in a crash on a U.S. passenger airline. (That was the person killed aboard a Southwest flight in 2018, when an engine exploded and the debris hit her window.) Three other people died in a crash at San Francisco International Airport in 2013, when a captain flying for the Korean carrier Asiana badly misjudged a landing.
By comparison: About 100 Americans die every day in car crashes, and a similar number from gunshots, and a larger number from opioids and other drugs."
On the Sea Harrier course they used to tell us that it crashed, on average, every 8,800 flight hours to make us pay attention. We flew around 50/hours month so those who were good at maths usually decided they preferred helicopters.
The only aircraft that ever made pilots think helicopters were the safer option?
From listening to the Harrier stories from yourself and others over the years, it's still amazing they had any aircraft or pilots left! But it would take a bow at the end of its display, which the eight year old me thought was awesome and engendered a love of planes.
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
"Between 2010 and 2019, exactly one person died in a crash on a U.S. passenger airline. (That was the person killed aboard a Southwest flight in 2018, when an engine exploded and the debris hit her window.) Three other people died in a crash at San Francisco International Airport in 2013, when a captain flying for the Korean carrier Asiana badly misjudged a landing.
By comparison: About 100 Americans die every day in car crashes, and a similar number from gunshots, and a larger number from opioids and other drugs."
The statistics for Western airlines look even better (except for Air France). The numbers are distorted up by a relatively high number accidents in Africa and Asia - mostly involving poorly trained crews, flying poorly maintained aircraft, flying to poorly equipped airports, flying often in poor weather.
IIRC the last two fatal accidents of flights originating from Europe were MH17 (shot down over a war zone) and Germanwings 9525 (suicide by pilot), with an honourable mention to AF447 which was pilot error. I honestly can't remember the last fatal accident in Europe caused primarily by a failure of the plane, maybe as far back as Concorde in 2000?
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
"Between 2010 and 2019, exactly one person died in a crash on a U.S. passenger airline. (That was the person killed aboard a Southwest flight in 2018, when an engine exploded and the debris hit her window.) Three other people died in a crash at San Francisco International Airport in 2013, when a captain flying for the Korean carrier Asiana badly misjudged a landing.
By comparison: About 100 Americans die every day in car crashes, and a similar number from gunshots, and a larger number from opioids and other drugs."
Northern Ireland's Public Prosecution Service will this morning announce if any individuals are to be charged in relation to the Bloody Sunday events in Derry in 1972.
Northern Ireland's Public Prosecution Service will this morning announce if any individuals are to be charged in relation to the Bloody Sunday events in Derry in 1972.
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
"Newly refined data...available this morning..." (that the Australians, Brits, French & Canadians somehow saw a day or days before we did...).
Not surprising the Ethiopians don't trust the USA (though that's almost certainly unfair to the NTSB, who would investigate).
Looks like the French are getting the "black boxes", the Germans having declined.
An interesting article on this, with some reports/
This rather stood out about America:
"Between 2010 and 2019, exactly one person died in a crash on a U.S. passenger airline. (That was the person killed aboard a Southwest flight in 2018, when an engine exploded and the debris hit her window.) Three other people died in a crash at San Francisco International Airport in 2013, when a captain flying for the Korean carrier Asiana badly misjudged a landing.
By comparison: About 100 Americans die every day in car crashes, and a similar number from gunshots, and a larger number from opioids and other drugs."
The statistics for Western airlines look even better (except for Air France). The numbers are distorted up by a relatively high number accidents in Africa and Asia - mostly involving poorly trained crews, flying poorly maintained aircraft, flying to poorly equipped airports, flying often in poor weather.
IIRC the last two fatal accidents of flights originating from Europe were MH17 (shot down over a war zone) and Germanwings 9525 (suicide by pilot), with an honourable mention to AF447 which was pilot error. I honestly can't remember the last fatal accident in Europe caused primarily by a failure of the plane, maybe as far back as Concorde in 2000?
tl;dr: 1) Euro participation will elect even more populist gobshites 2) If you want to go into 2021 when the new budget period starts, you need more budget contributions, which is a whole new food fight 3) TMay needs the threat of chaos to give her leverage and make MPs blink 4) An extension undermines the EU's reputation for not giving a shit whether the British and Irish eat grass, which weakens their leverage in future trade negotiations 5) Delaying doesn't actually solve the problem, which comes back sooner or later
Northern Ireland's Public Prosecution Service will this morning announce if any individuals are to be charged in relation to the Bloody Sunday events in Derry in 1972.
I still don't understand this one I'm afraid, two decades after we let everyone involved in the Troubles out of prison and agreed to leave the past in the past.
> 1) Euro participation will elect even more populist gobshites
The UK starts from a high populist gobshite base, even with the brexit stuff you might well see UKIP drop, and even if that's wrong, they wouldn't do that much damage
> 2) If you want to go into 2021 when the new budget period starts, you need more budget contributions, which is a whole new food fight
Is a fair point in favour of stopping before 2021 in the first instance, then requiring a commitment not to be a dick about the budget as a condition for a further extension
> 3) TMay needs the threat of chaos to give her leverage and make MPs blink
This threat doesn't work because for different reasons both the opposition and the ERG are pro-chaos. You're better off threatening the ERG with order.
> 4) An extension undermines the EU's reputation for not giving a shit whether the British and Irish eat grass, which weakens their leverage in future trade negotiations
I'll kind of grant this one
> 5) Delaying doesn't actually solve the problem, which comes back sooner or later
There are a few ways things may sort themselves out, and ultimately the universe will run out of thermodynamic free energy, so if you keep extending until then the problem will go away
https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-uk/the-young-people-staring-down-an-endless-brexit For a number of reasons, Brexit has been an invidious political process. But one of the most unsettling has been the mismatch between the generations that voted for Britain’s departure and the generations that will have to bear the consequences. Around seventy per cent of those under the age of twenty-four voted Remain, while sixty per cent of those older than sixty-five voted Leave. “It’s really, really scary to watch politicians who are trying to implement something which the vast majority of us don’t want and have never wanted,” Spirit said. On January 19th, four days after the first defeat of May’s Brexit deal, OFOC celebrated what it called Cross-Over Day, on which the number of new voters entering the electoral register since the referendum should, in theory, have outnumbered the older, pro-Brexit voters who have died in the same period. “It’s quite morbid, but it does raise an interesting discussion about, like, who matters in a democracy,” Spirit told me. “It’s going to be all of the talent, energy, ingenuity of my generation who are going to be having to make sense of Brexit, which they don’t think has ever made any sense for our country.”...
The medium term risk to the Tories is obvious, given that most people settle their political instincts when young. Brexit on top of housing, student finance and the gig economy is creating a whole cohort that will grow up with long-lasting negative memories of Tory rule.
I can see why the EU are not being seduced by the lemma of banking the WA and then that will inevitably lead to further divergence. The government is dying before our eyes and the Corbyn firewall isn't going to last forever so there is a real chance of a change of government to a much more europhile administration before we even get to the end of the transition period. At which point the tide may flow the other way.
No deal is much, much harder to reverse and is therefore a prize worth pursuing. If you really want to leave it's the only logical course of action.
I think No Deal is more likely to be reversed than an orderly Brexit.
I agree, but I suspect most No Dealers share the perception of Dura Ace on this matter.
It's also worth bearing in mind in that 1m of the 17.4m gammons who voted leave have now been gathered into the dark wings of Azrael, the Mohammedan angel of the sepulchre and that new voters are hatching at the rate 3:1 in favour of remain. The ERG know that the demographics are working against them so the moment is now.
I learnt a couple of days ago that six jobs that were planned to be created at my place will now go to France. So six young people who would otherwise have a job, won't now, and the two that were taken on before the change of policy are wondering what will happen to them. These aren't fancy jobs, but they are good, well paying ones.
It brings home the madness of Brexit. And also why young people want no part of it. It is killing their future.
Boeing look as though they might in serious trouble, with orders being postponed across Asia, and some countries removing the 737 completely from consideration for future orders.
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
"Between 2010 and 2019, exactly one person died in a crash on a U.S. passenger airline. (That was the person killed aboard a Southwest flight in 2018, when an engine exploded and the debris hit her window.) Three other people died in a crash at San Francisco International Airport in 2013, when a captain flying for the Korean carrier Asiana badly misjudged a landing.
By comparison: About 100 Americans die every day in car crashes, and a similar number from gunshots, and a larger number from opioids and other drugs."
We see this trend of significant, but rarely commented on, improvements across many areas of life. As if somehow it is to be expected. On many many measures the world is substantially a better place than in was thirty years ago, and those sometimes astonishing changes are entirely missing from modern discourse in the west.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-uk/the-young-people-staring-down-an-endless-brexit For a number of reasons, Brexit has been an invidious political process. But one of the most unsettling has been the mismatch between the generations that voted for Britain’s departure and the generations that will have to bear the consequences. Around seventy per cent of those under the age of twenty-four voted Remain, while sixty per cent of those older than sixty-five voted Leave. “It’s really, really scary to watch politicians who are trying to implement something which the vast majority of us don’t want and have never wanted,” Spirit said. On January 19th, four days after the first defeat of May’s Brexit deal, OFOC celebrated what it called Cross-Over Day, on which the number of new voters entering the electoral register since the referendum should, in theory, have outnumbered the older, pro-Brexit voters who have died in the same period. “It’s quite morbid, but it does raise an interesting discussion about, like, who matters in a democracy,” Spirit told me. “It’s going to be all of the talent, energy, ingenuity of my generation who are going to be having to make sense of Brexit, which they don’t think has ever made any sense for our country.”...
The medium term risk to the Tories is obvious, given that most people settle their political instincts when young. Brexit on top of housing, student finance and the gig economy is creating a whole cohort that will grow up with long-lasting negative memories of Tory rule.
I’m rather more concerned about the risk to the country.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-uk/the-young-people-staring-down-an-endless-brexit For a number of reasons, Brexit has been an invidious political process. But one of the most unsettling has been the mismatch between the generations that voted for Britain’s departure and the generations that will have to bear the consequences. Around seventy per cent of those under the age of twenty-four voted Remain, while sixty per cent of those older than sixty-five voted Leave. “It’s really, really scary to watch politicians who are trying to implement something which the vast majority of us don’t want and have never wanted,” Spirit said. On January 19th, four days after the first defeat of May’s Brexit deal, OFOC celebrated what it called Cross-Over Day, on which the number of new voters entering the electoral register since the referendum should, in theory, have outnumbered the older, pro-Brexit voters who have died in the same period. “It’s quite morbid, but it does raise an interesting discussion about, like, who matters in a democracy,” Spirit told me. “It’s going to be all of the talent, energy, ingenuity of my generation who are going to be having to make sense of Brexit, which they don’t think has ever made any sense for our country.”...
‘Spirit’ celebrates the death of older people, and it’s the other side who are “the baddies”?
There are a few ways things may sort themselves out, and ultimately the universe will run out of thermodynamic free energy, so if you keep extending until then the problem will go away
Comments
No deal is much, much harder to reverse and is therefore a prize worth pursuing. If you really want to leave it's the only logical course of action.
Sure, they're (understandably) unwilling to grant us a Brexit deal which gives us more favourable terms than we have now, but an extension would mean the SAME terms as we have now, so I can't see what their issue would be.
Almost weird how some of the ones we heard about most often, not necessarily as leaders but because they make themselves known somehow, are the most longstanding. Clarke (1st in seniority), Skinner (2nd), Harman (7th), Corbyn (11th, such a man of the people), Beckett (15th), Cash (16th), Redwood (20th), Abbott (25th) and so on.
Most of the older ones I at least recognise the names of, but who is Sir David Amess, member since 1983, Sir Roger Gale the same? For some reason it's the long standing Tories I seem to have trouble recognising.
If we don’t manage a no deal Brexit ourselves we will need to ask for A50 extension, that extension WILL come with strings, those strings will be EU taking control of Britain’s Brexit. I don’t normally say Boris is right. From this position “the only path to self respect” for Britain is no deal. If May cannot get her negotiation through parliament there are only two options available, managing a no deal Brexit, or allowing the EU to take control of Britain’s Brexit, and how humiliating in practice that will be.
We must wake up to the fact anything that takes no deal off the table, or any motion or amendment asking for extension is in reality handing control of Britain’s Brexit to the EU, something surely politically far harder to go with than managing a no deal because it couldn’t be spun any positive way? Extension means Britain will accept strings, Imagine yourself a spin doctor, having to defend those strings, British Government and the People’s brexit at the mercy of the EU it will be seen as weak, its effectively failed leadership.
So Ask yourself which is the worst option for the Conservative Government and Prime minister, managing a no deal Brexit or allowing EU to take control of Britain’s Brexit via strings, those strings in hands of Tusk, our negotiation our Brexit on the end of those strings. how would you spin it? Corbyn at his most politically naive and stupid has been pushing for no deal come off negotiating table for months, can you see Gove, May, Hunt, Javid joining him in such an insanely weak negotiating position for Britain to be in? Such a surrender as accepting EU strings and handing Brexit upper hand to EU?
Without doubt all political leaders, parties, cabinets and governments take the least damaging decision politically, we are in agreement this fact? So the equation is straightforward, which plays out as most politically damaging if its the only two remaining options this month, handing control of Brexit to the EU, or managing a no deal Brexit and building up from there?
People big up no deal brexit like it’s end of the world. But an extension with strings is politically very very difficult. This post is me saying don’t underestimate how difficult,
Female, BME, but Hindu, not scary Moslem, northern, pragmatic and nuanced. Seems to put some thought in to her positions. Not overly associated with any particular faction, and a generation jump from Corbyn/ May.
After another Corbyn GE loss, or a failed JC govt, she isn't associated with his regime. Nor with the Blair/Brown era.
A complete reset.
I have a cheeky £5 at 80s.
I can also see why they'd all be saying "stop faffing and leave" for public consumption: They don't want to be accused of forcing Britain to stay, and the uncertainty and drama is a genuine PITA. But I think Gimp Remain is also preferable from that perspective to Panicked Last-Minute Revoke, let alone the car crash.
Many of these longstanding MPs don't seem to have held any senior positions if the 'notes' sections are an indication, with Clarke being the obvious exception. Being content to muddle along as a constituency focused MP a recipe for long service?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_by_seniority,_2017–present#List_of_Members_of_Parliament_by_seniority
Showing your youth there! David Amess was the face of the 1992 election - when he carried Basildon (in those days a key marginal) it was clear that Major had somehow pulled it off. Later, he became better known for being duped by Chris Morris in the brilliant Cake drug episode of Brasseye.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-mp-tricked-into-condemning-a-fake-drug-called-cake-has-been-put-in-charge-of-scrutinising-drugs-a6704671.html?amp
https://twitter.com/ChrisLeslieMP/status/1105946475186528257
PS Lovely and vague about the kind of referendum involved...
Given Skinner is 87 and still kicking around she could easily serve longer than him if she wanted.
Nearly all these veterans are Knights or The Rt Hon, I can only assume those without are the sort who object to any such honours talk.
Could be a good test of how old we are - not the 'young policeman' test, but 'how many MPs have been elected since you were born?'
Hmm, 630 even for me. Not a good one after all then.
Voting with Labour to bring the government down . That will go down well with the rest of the party , they refuse to accept reality and are unhinged .
Dr Wollaston is a former Leaver.
She voted Remain. She campaigned for Remain.
David Winnick is the most recent MP to have seved during the 1960s (elected for the first time in 1966), but he was out of Parliament between 1970 and 1979. He lost his seat in 2017.
Both Sir Gerald Kaufman and Michael Meacher were first elected in 1970 (like Clarke and Skinner) but both died during the 2015-2017 Parliament. Both were probably at the height of their fame in the 1980s; the former made the 'longest suicide note in history' comment about the 1983 Labour manifesto, and the latter was a key player on the Labour left during the factional infighting of that decade.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/09/dr-sarah-wollaston-defects-vote-leave-remain-campaign
She at least appears to be one person who changed her mind over what was written on the side of a bus!
She was a plant so obvious Johnny English would be embarrassed.
Most of them probably know that whatever happens their political careers are likely finished anyway... All they care about now is securing Brexit by whatever means they can.
If that means VONC their government one week before 29th March so that time runs out for Parliament to delay or revoke they'll do it (just as Soubry and Grieve would if they thought that course of action could stop Brexit altogether)
We're in the politics of the asylum now...
Or else I'd have been old these past 9 years.
It’s like these people want a last minute revocation of Article 50 .
https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1105936915621183493
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/03/beto-orourke-2020-campaign-president-why.html
https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-uk/the-young-people-staring-down-an-endless-brexit
For a number of reasons, Brexit has been an invidious political process. But one of the most unsettling has been the mismatch between the generations that voted for Britain’s departure and the generations that will have to bear the consequences. Around seventy per cent of those under the age of twenty-four voted Remain, while sixty per cent of those older than sixty-five voted Leave. “It’s really, really scary to watch politicians who are trying to implement something which the vast majority of us don’t want and have never wanted,” Spirit said. On January 19th, four days after the first defeat of May’s Brexit deal, OFOC celebrated what it called Cross-Over Day, on which the number of new voters entering the electoral register since the referendum should, in theory, have outnumbered the older, pro-Brexit voters who have died in the same period. “It’s quite morbid, but it does raise an interesting discussion about, like, who matters in a democracy,” Spirit told me. “It’s going to be all of the talent, energy, ingenuity of my generation who are going to be having to make sense of Brexit, which they don’t think has ever made any sense for our country.”...
It might seriously affect the growth of some regional airlines, as there is no near term capacity to replace it.
The sight of Trump having to instruct the FAA to ground it - after every other country has already done so - is not an edifying one.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/47564762
His death could scarcely have happened at a worse time for F1: the day before the first practice of the season, with lots of technical decisions about legality to be made. For instance Williams, who despite having turned up late with the slowest car, might have made a car that is also illegal.
Whoever replaces him (and the role probably demands two or three people) could shape the upcoming season.
"Newly refined data...available this morning..." (that the Australians, Brits, French & Canadians somehow saw a day or days before we did...).
Not surprising the Ethiopians don't trust the USA (though that's almost certainly unfair to the NTSB, who would investigate).
Looks like the French are getting the "black boxes", the Germans having declined.
There had been talk of him retiring for a few years now, I hope the FIA have a succession plan ready to go.
RIP, condolences to his family and many friends.
https://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2019/03/heres-what-was-on-the-record-about-problems-with-the-737-max/584791/
"Between 2010 and 2019, exactly one person died in a crash on a U.S. passenger airline. (That was the person killed aboard a Southwest flight in 2018, when an engine exploded and the debris hit her window.) Three other people died in a crash at San Francisco International Airport in 2013, when a captain flying for the Korean carrier Asiana badly misjudged a landing.
By comparison: About 100 Americans die every day in car crashes, and a similar number from gunshots, and a larger number from opioids and other drugs."
Meanwhile global passenger traffic has *doubled* since 2006.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/564717/airline-industry-passenger-traffic-globally/
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1106069800202194944
Fallows is a great journalist (and at one time was Carter’s chief speechwriter).
From listening to the Harrier stories from yourself and others over the years, it's still amazing they had any aircraft or pilots left! But it would take a bow at the end of its display, which the eight year old me thought was awesome and engendered a love of planes.
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-geologic-evidence-theory-major-cosmic.html
IIRC the last two fatal accidents of flights originating from Europe were MH17 (shot down over a war zone) and Germanwings 9525 (suicide by pilot), with an honourable mention to AF447 which was pilot error. I honestly can't remember the last fatal accident in Europe caused primarily by a failure of the plane, maybe as far back as Concorde in 2000?
Northern Ireland's Public Prosecution Service will this morning announce if any individuals are to be charged in relation to the Bloody Sunday events in Derry in 1972.
https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2019/0314/1036267-bloody-sunday/
http://www.epc.eu/pub_details.php?cat_id=4&pub_id=9047
tl;dr:
1) Euro participation will elect even more populist gobshites
2) If you want to go into 2021 when the new budget period starts, you need more budget contributions, which is a whole new food fight
3) TMay needs the threat of chaos to give her leverage and make MPs blink
4) An extension undermines the EU's reputation for not giving a shit whether the British and Irish eat grass, which weakens their leverage in future trade negotiations
5) Delaying doesn't actually solve the problem, which comes back sooner or later
That would be the ultimate example of karma!
> 1) Euro participation will elect even more populist gobshites
The UK starts from a high populist gobshite base, even with the brexit stuff you might well see UKIP drop, and even if that's wrong, they wouldn't do that much damage
> 2) If you want to go into 2021 when the new budget period starts, you need more budget contributions, which is a whole new food fight
Is a fair point in favour of stopping before 2021 in the first instance, then requiring a commitment not to be a dick about the budget as a condition for a further extension
> 3) TMay needs the threat of chaos to give her leverage and make MPs blink
This threat doesn't work because for different reasons both the opposition and the ERG are pro-chaos. You're better off threatening the ERG with order.
> 4) An extension undermines the EU's reputation for not giving a shit whether the British and Irish eat grass, which weakens their leverage in future trade negotiations
I'll kind of grant this one
> 5) Delaying doesn't actually solve the problem, which comes back sooner or later
There are a few ways things may sort themselves out, and ultimately the universe will run out of thermodynamic free energy, so if you keep extending until then the problem will go away
It brings home the madness of Brexit. And also why young people want no part of it. It is killing their future.
More windy annoyance this morning. I'll be glad when this repetitive tempest gradually goes away.
‘Spirit’ celebrates the death of older people, and it’s the other side who are “the baddies”?