Having looked at the history of Brynglas, I conclude that Theresa May has some serious competition in can-kicking. The can has been kicked for 20 years.
There are people whose homes lie on the proposed route.
Rosemary Butler said: "I just hope that they can come up with something which is going resolve the situation once and for all and put my constituents out of their misery. "And some of them are in misery at the moment," she said.
That is the AM for Newport West in .... err ... 2013.
At least Theresa May has the excuse she has no effective majority. Welsh Labour don't have any excuse.
Heathrowvian levels of can-kicking there. As an erstwhile resident of mid-Wales in the late nineties, there was discussion about what to do with the Brynglas bottleneck from the day the Second Severn Crossing opened in 1996.
the over 100 mainly ERG MPs who voted to no confidence should be more than enough to get Boris to the final two
Unless they prefer someone else
As stated below that would most likely be Raab
And if they can't agree, and end up splitting their vote?
Once one is knocked out he gets the others vote, there will be more than 1 Remainer and Deal candidate too until the last round
You're assuming that all the 117 anti-May MPs will happily roll behind whichever hard Brexit candidate is left. I'm pretty sure that's not true in practice - in particular there are likely to be a bunch of "not Boris" MPs and Raab hardly covered himself in glory in his only major ministerial outing.
Push comes to shove, enough will vote in favour of their own medium term job security (ie who's best placed to lead till 2022, then fight an election) to make this anything but academic.
Boris Johnson might well not make the last three, never mind the last two. I'm not at all convinced that he will get as far as submitting himself to the verdict of his fellow MPs. He didn't last time.
That remains the great unknown factor. What has changed since 2016 that made him not a candidate then, but a candidate now? Surely not just his marriage?
Boris Johnson might well not make the last three, never mind the last two. I'm not at all convinced that he will get as far as submitting himself to the verdict of his fellow MPs. He didn't last time.
That remains the great unknown factor. What has changed since 2016 that made him not a candidate then, but a candidate now? Surely not just his marriage?
Gove has pinky-sworn to support him properly this time.
Nothing in it that suggested immigration should be reduced, just controlled and "better" targeted. If I can be so bold as to suggest many leave voters are happier with more educated Australians going through an approvals process than Balkan gypsies exercising treaty rights.
Not waht is happening though
As uncomfortable as it may be to say, those from outside the EU are more likely to come from countries whose way of life and beliefs differ from British culture in a problematic way; whose attitudes to women, sexuality and secular freedoms jar with our own. Across swathes of Asia, the Middle East and Africa there prevail attitudes that we rightly condemn as backward and misogynistic. Partly as a consequence of this conflict, some who have migrated to the UK from outside the EU have formed communities that turn their backs on mainstream British culture, preferring isolation to integration.
Indeed. 50% of our immigration is from outside EU, and successive home secretaries have had the powers to reduce it but have not, including TMay. With educated EU citizens feeling unwelcome, it is likely that immigration may not go down at all, it will simply change its place of origin.
Nothing in it that suggested immigration should be reduced, just controlled and "better" targeted. If I can be so bold as to suggest many leave voters are happier with more educated Australians going through an approvals process than Balkan gypsies exercising treaty rights.
Not waht is happening though
As uncomfortable as it may be to say, those from outside the EU are more likely to come from countries whose way of life and beliefs differ from British culture in a problematic way; whose attitudes to women, sexuality and secular freedoms jar with our own. Across swathes of Asia, the Middle East and Africa there prevail attitudes that we rightly condemn as backward and misogynistic. Partly as a consequence of this conflict, some who have migrated to the UK from outside the EU have formed communities that turn their backs on mainstream British culture, preferring isolation to integration.
Indeed. 50% of our immigration is from outside EU, and successive home secretaries have had the powers to reduce it but have not, including TMay. With educated EU citizens feeling unwelcome, it is likely that immigration may not go down at all, it will simply change its place of origin.
I think implying that immigrants from outside the EU are uneducated is a racist action.
Boris Johnson might well not make the last three, never mind the last two. I'm not at all convinced that he will get as far as submitting himself to the verdict of his fellow MPs. He didn't last time.
That remains the great unknown factor. What has changed since 2016 that made him not a candidate then, but a candidate now? Surely not just his marriage?
too much exposure the jolly buffoon act has worn thin
Plaid Cymru - Jonathan Clark Renew - June Davies Conservative - Matthew Evans Labour - Ruth Jones Abolish the Welsh Assembly - Richard Suchorzewski Green - Amelia Womack
Apparently we'll be getting Lib Dems and Ukip too, but not the new Brexit Party or anyone aligned to TIG. A market on fewest votes would be interesting.
Boris Johnson might well not make the last three, never mind the last two. I'm not at all convinced that he will get as far as submitting himself to the verdict of his fellow MPs. He didn't last time.
A sense of ''now or never' would be the most likely driver for him to stand and actually go through with it.
Plaid Cymru - Jonathan Clark Renew - June Davies Conservative - Matthew Evans Labour - Ruth Jones Abolish the Welsh Assembly - Richard Suchorzewski Green - Amelia Womack
Apparently we'll be getting Lib Dems and Ukip too, but not the new Brexit Party or anyone aligned to TIG. A market on fewest votes would be interesting.
Renew fewer votes than "Abolish the welsh assembly" perhaps, "Abolish the welsh assembly" sends out a clear enough message.
Plaid Cymru - Jonathan Clark Renew - June Davies Conservative - Matthew Evans Labour - Ruth Jones Abolish the Welsh Assembly - Richard Suchorzewski Green - Amelia Womack
Apparently we'll be getting Lib Dems and Ukip too, but not the new Brexit Party or anyone aligned to TIG. A market on fewest votes would be interesting.
Renew fewer votes than "Abolish the welsh assembly" perhaps, "Abolish the welsh assembly" sends out a clear enough message.
If they don't like Bangladeshi's and Muslims then as I also state below that offers a chance for the increasingly EDL like Tommy Robinson infiltrated UKIP
by voters who feel betrayed by Brexit.
Glad you got there in the end
Many of those voters former BNP or National Front supporters.
Brexit could only control EU immigration and that has fallen, even the hardest of Brexits would have no direct link to non EU immigration
So what, none of that stopped Corbyn winning the Labour membership vote 3 times, nor would it stop Boris winning the Tory membership vote.
The point is that Tory MPs can stop BoZo being put to the membership vote.
Boris does not need to win the MP vote just get to the final 2, the over 100 mainly ERG MPs who voted to no confidence should be more than enough to get Boris to the final two, if IDS and Davis and Leadsom managed it so can Boris
Maybe. But there are rumours that a sophisticated operation may be run to spread the support for two non-ERG candidates very carefully. Two could get say 107 each and Boris be left on 100.
117 MPs no confidenced May ie over a third of Tory MPs, more than enough to get an ERG candidate in the final two and effectively impossible to stop as if two non-ERG candidates split equally the ERG candidate would top the MP ballot.
ConHome's new Tory members poll this morning has Raab as the main ERG alternative to Boris, the top 3 are all Leavers and the top 2 No Dealers. Boris leads on 25%, Raab is second on 13% and Gove third on 9% just ahead of Javid who is the top former Remainer on 8.6%
I agree it will be entirely possible that Boris gets through. The 117 though are not all Boris fans I don't think, some just wanted shot of May for a variety of reasons.
But they say the Tory parliamentary party is the most sophisticated electorate in the world, so we will see.
But if Boris or Raab gets to last two, they have won. Simples.
Yes, if Boris or Raab get to the final two they win
I think implying that immigrants from outside the EU are uneducated is a racist action.
No, your assumptions are false.
Non-EU economic migrants tend to bring their families with them, many of whom are indeed not as well educated as the primary breadwinner.
Once again, the article linked to upthread is helpful
This difference is partly explained by the fact that many non-EU citizens bring family dependents with them who do no work. In 2016 nearly a quarter of those who migrated from outside the EU (53,000 people) came to join members of their family.
a vain attempt to distance themselves from the racist Deplorables
Like this?
Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
Yes but what are the betting implications? Boris cannot become leader because as The Times shows, he would be, and would make the Conservative Party, vulnerable to the same sorts of attacks deployed against Corbyn and Labour over antisemitism. Rival Tory leadership candidates will have files full of this stuff, so lay Boris for leader.
Boris is the current ERG candidate-presumptive, with JRM's support. The question is who will inherit this ERG support. I don't know, but it might be worth scanning through the longer-priced runners.
So what, none of that stopped Corbyn winning the Labour membership vote 3 times, nor would it stop Boris winning the Tory membership vote.
It will stop Boris getting to the membership vote. Most MPs will not vote for Boris once it is made clear, as it will be, the consequences as outlined above. Cui bono? Is there a clean candidate who can inherit ERG support? You are right that the Brexiteers can send their candidate to the membership, but it won't be Boris.
Immigration from the EU to the UK has already fallen significantly since the Brexit vote and is at a 10 year low, Brexit could make no difference to non EU immigration
Yeah, that's the whole point of the article...
People who voted for Brexit to reduce immigration are going to feel betrayed.
Yep. This is not going to end well.
It could end well for Tommy Robinson though and the EDL if he really has taken over UKIP.
Robinson's best result is probably Brexit with a Deal, so the Brexit Party of Farage does not really take off as it would if Brexit was revoked but still leaving a feeling of betrayal with hardline No Deal backing white working class Leavers while non EU immigration continues to rise
And they appear already to have established a new, more right wing base:
Boris Johnson might well not make the last three, never mind the last two. I'm not at all convinced that he will get as far as submitting himself to the verdict of his fellow MPs. He didn't last time.
That remains the great unknown factor. What has changed since 2016 that made him not a candidate then, but a candidate now? Surely not just his marriage?
He doesn't have to bother with the tedium of the Brexit negotiations, just push a Canada style hard Brexit marrative
If they don't like Bangladeshi's and Muslims then as I also state below that offers a chance for the increasingly EDL like Tommy Robinson infiltrated UKIP
by voters who feel betrayed by Brexit.
Glad you got there in the end
Many of those voters former BNP or National Front supporters.
Brexit could only control EU immigration and that has fallen, even the hardest of Brexits would have no direct link to non EU immigration
It's had a very direct link - Brexit has increased non-EU immigration.
Boris Johnson might well not make the last three, never mind the last two. I'm not at all convinced that he will get as far as submitting himself to the verdict of his fellow MPs. He didn't last time.
A sense of ''now or never' would be the most likely driver for him to stand and actually go through with it.
Unlike last time, those who are responsible for deciding the first stage of the election process have seen him at work in a Great Office of State. I'm not sure they found his performance in that role particularly endearing to something even more senior.
There's also the question of his colourful personal life, and plenty of evidence that he's not a trustworthy individual.
Oh, and Michael Gove will almost certainly be standing again next time.
the over 100 mainly ERG MPs who voted to no confidence should be more than enough to get Boris to the final two
Unless they prefer someone else
As stated below that would most likely be Raab
And if they can't agree, and end up splitting their vote?
Once one is knocked out he gets the others vote, there will be more than 1 Remainer and Deal candidate too until the last round
You're assuming that all the 117 anti-May MPs will happily roll behind whichever hard Brexit candidate is left. I'm pretty sure that's not true in practice - in particular there are likely to be a bunch of "not Boris" MPs and Raab hardly covered himself in glory in his only major ministerial outing.
Push comes to shove, enough will vote in favour of their own medium term job security (ie who's best placed to lead till 2022, then fight an election) to make this anything but academic.
The 117 were almost all ERG hard Brexiteers, more than enough to get Boris or Raab to the membership vote they almost certainly would win
Indeed. 50% of our immigration is from outside EU, and successive home secretaries have had the powers to reduce it but have not, including TMay. With educated EU citizens feeling unwelcome, it is likely that immigration may not go down at all, it will simply change its place of origin.
Technically yes, but in fairness to TMay she pulled all the reasonable available levers, and also several unreasonable ones, like banning middle-to-low-earning British people from living in Britain with their overseas spouses. And the reason she had to resort to these fairly drastic rules was because Gordon Brown's government had already realized immigration was harming their vote and picked most of the low-hanging fruit.
Brexit could only control EU immigration and that has fallen, even the hardest of Brexits would have no direct link to non EU immigration
That whooshing sound you can hear is the point going over your head, again.
The Brexit campaign majored on preventing non-EU migrants.
None of the people in that poster is an EU migrant.
People who voted for that will feel betrayed.
Isn't the point that they'll soon have German (EU) passports and have the ability to come here. Whether they would or not is another matter, but I think it was fair to bring this up in the context of the EU.
a vain attempt to distance themselves from the racist Deplorables
Like this?
Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
Yes but what are the betting implications? Boris cannot become leader because as The Times shows, he would be, and would make the Conservative Party, vulnerable to the same sorts of attacks deployed against Corbyn and Labour over antisemitism. Rival Tory leadership candidates will have files full of this stuff, so lay Boris for leader.
Boris is the current ERG candidate-presumptive, with JRM's support. The question is who will inherit this ERG support. I don't know, but it might be worth scanning through the longer-priced runners.
So what, none of that stopped Corbyn winning the Labour membership vote 3 times, nor would it stop Boris winning the Tory membership vote.
It will stop Boris getting to the membership vote. Most MPs will not vote for Boris once it is made clear, as it will be, the consequences as outlined above. Cui bono? Is there a clean candidate who can inherit ERG support? You are right that the Brexiteers can send their candidate to the membership, but it won't be Boris.
Boris polls best of the ERG and has the most charisma until that changes he remains frontrunner
Isn't the point that they'll soon have German (EU) passports and have the ability to come here. Whether they would or not is another matter, but I think it was fair to bring this up in the context of the EU.
They don't need a German passport to come here. That's the point. Non-EU migration is going up.
People who voted for Brexit to stop immigrants are going to feel betrayed.
Isn't the point that they'll soon have German (EU) passports and have the ability to come here. Whether they would or not is another matter, but I think it was fair to bring this up in the context of the EU.
They don't need a German passport to come here. That's the point. Non-EU migration is going up.
People who voted for Brexit to stop immigrants are going to feel betrayed.
a vain attempt to distance themselves from the racist Deplorables
Like this?
Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
Yes but what are the betting implications? Boris cannot become leader because as The Times shows, he would be, and would make the Conservative Party, vulnerable to the same sorts of attacks deployed against Corbyn and Labour over antisemitism. Rival Tory leadership candidates will have files full of this stuff, so lay Boris for leader.
Boris is the current ERG candidate-presumptive, with JRM's support. The question is who will inherit this ERG support. I don't know, but it might be worth scanning through the longer-priced runners.
So what, none of that stopped Corbyn winning the Labour membership vote 3 times, nor would it stop Boris winning the Tory membership vote.
It will stop Boris getting to the membership vote. Most MPs will not vote for Boris once it is made clear, as it will be, the consequences as outlined above. Cui bono? Is there a clean candidate who can inherit ERG support? You are right that the Brexiteers can send their candidate to the membership, but it won't be Boris.
Boris polls best of the ERG and has the most charisma until that changes he remains frontrunner
Boris is a buffon.. the days of his "charisma" such as it was were when he was London mayor, keeping Red Ken out.. As Foreign Sec he was worse than useless.
No they won't but if Turkey did become an EU member the Leavers would have been proved right.
Hating all immigration EU or non EU is not related to Brexit directly which only concerns sovereignty and EU immigration
"Impressive. Every word in that sentence was wrong"
Nope, if you want to reduce all immigration that is not directly Brexit linked, a Tommy Robinson style EDL platform picking up where the BNP and National Front left off might well take over UKIP on an end all immigration ticket and a platform hostile to Islam but that is not related directly to Brexit which only enables reclamation of sovereignty and reduction in EU immigration
Isn't the point that they'll soon have German (EU) passports and have the ability to come here. Whether they would or not is another matter, but I think it was fair to bring this up in the context of the EU.
They don't need a German passport to come here. That's the point. Non-EU migration is going up.
People who voted for Brexit to stop immigrants are going to feel betrayed.
No, but it makes it a hell of a lot easier to do so.
Part of the problem remainers - particularly Labour remainers - had during the referendum, is they couldn't really be seen to be opposed to the non-EU immigration.
a vain attempt to distance themselves from the racist Deplorables
Like this?
Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
Yes but what are the betting implications? Boris cannot become leader because as The Times shows, he would be, and would make the Conservative Party, vulnerable to the same sorts of attacks deployed against Corbyn and Labour over antisemitism. Rival Tory leadership candidates will have files full of this stuff, so lay Boris for leader.
Boris is the current ERG candidate-presumptive, with JRM's support. The question is who will inherit this ERG support. I don't know, but it might be worth scanning through the longer-priced runners.
So what, none of that stopped Corbyn winning the Labour membership vote 3 times, nor would it stop Boris winning the Tory membership vote.
It will stop Boris getting to the membership vote. Most MPs will not vote for Boris once it is made clear, as it will be, the consequences as outlined above. Cui bono? Is there a clean candidate who can inherit ERG support? You are right that the Brexiteers can send their candidate to the membership, but it won't be Boris.
Boris polls best of the ERG and has the most charisma until that changes he remains frontrunner
Boris is a buffon.. the days of his "charisma" such as it was were when he was London mayor, keeping Red Ken out.. As Foreign Sec he was worse than useless.
The left hate Boris, most Remainers hate Boris, that does not mean Boris cannot win the Tory leadership and them beat Corbyn with Tories and Leavers behind him
Boris polls best of the ERG and has the most charisma until that changes he remains frontrunner
FFS
He polls well amongst people who are not the electorate to get him on the ballot
Enough of that electorate especially from the ERG could get him on the ballot ie most of the 117 who no confidenced May plus a few others like Soames who are close to Boris
Isn't the point that they'll soon have German (EU) passports and have the ability to come here. Whether they would or not is another matter, but I think it was fair to bring this up in the context of the EU.
They don't need a German passport to come here. That's the point. Non-EU migration is going up.
People who voted for Brexit to stop immigrants are going to feel betrayed.
Which of course no one could have foreseen.
people feel let down all the time its just how it is, then life moves on
the over 100 mainly ERG MPs who voted to no confidence should be more than enough to get Boris to the final two
Unless they prefer someone else
As stated below that would most likely be Raab
And if they can't agree, and end up splitting their vote?
Indeed. The ERG is not a bloc vote, which is one reason Theresa May is still there.
117 MPs was not enough to no confidence May, so she can stay for the foreseeable future. However if and when May goes 117 MPs is enough to get an ERG candidate in the final 2 to the Tory membership
Brexit voters are going to feel betrayed when that doesn't happen.
Reducing non EU immigration cannot be directly affected by Brexit, even in the EU it could be reduced, that may lead to a rise in a Tommy Robinson backed UKIP but is not a Brexit issue as such
Isn't the point that they'll soon have German (EU) passports and have the ability to come here. Whether they would or not is another matter, but I think it was fair to bring this up in the context of the EU.
They don't need a German passport to come here. That's the point. Non-EU migration is going up.
People who voted for Brexit to stop immigrants are going to feel betrayed.
Which of course no one could have foreseen.
people feel let down all the time its just how it is, then life moves on
They should shrug off Brexit being cancelled then.
Isn't the point that they'll soon have German (EU) passports and have the ability to come here. Whether they would or not is another matter, but I think it was fair to bring this up in the context of the EU.
They don't need a German passport to come here. That's the point. Non-EU migration is going up.
People who voted for Brexit to stop immigrants are going to feel betrayed.
Which of course no one could have foreseen.
people feel let down all the time its just how it is, then life moves on
They should shrug off Brexit being cancelled then.
Well its that or Remainers should just come to terms with they lost
Leave advocates still haven't accepted the terms of the bargain that they struck at the time of the referendum. They get to leave the EU, but at the price of prioritising shutting out foreigners.
Agree with the header. The Cons start too far behind to win this. Nevertheless, the by-election could give a morale boost to one side or the other depending on the swing
Leave advocates still haven't accepted the terms of the bargain that they struck at the time of the referendum. They get to leave the EU, but at the price of prioritising shutting out foreigners.
At least Faust knew when he sold his soul.
They know, they just don't like saying it, or other people pointing it out
Leave advocates still haven't accepted the terms of the bargain that they struck at the time of the referendum. They get to leave the EU, but at the price of prioritising shutting out foreigners.
At least Faust knew when he sold his soul.
Youve spent years telling us Leavers prime goal was to shut out foreigners Now youre saying Leavers didnt realise this could be a consequence of Leave
Leave advocates still haven't accepted the terms of the bargain that they struck at the time of the referendum. They get to leave the EU, but at the price of prioritising shutting out foreigners.
At least Faust knew when he sold his soul.
That's not quite right. The Leavers, at least the ones who will be in charge, do not want to stem immigration, just to pretend they do. Thus Theresa May's hostile environment to give cover to rising immigration on her watch. Only skilled workers will be allowed in, they say, like doctors and curry chefs and fruit pickers. A very skilled job, is picking fruit.
Leave advocates still haven't accepted the terms of the bargain that they struck at the time of the referendum. They get to leave the EU, but at the price of prioritising shutting out foreigners.
At least Faust knew when he sold his soul.
Trouble is, they were so dumb that they couldn't even work out that of course immigration wouldn't fall.
Because this government for better or worse doesn't want to reduce immigration. Which, although an old battle (albeit @HYUFD still seems to be fighting it), shows explicitly that the EU was never the problem for UK immigration, it was always and continues to be a UK domestic issue.
Leave advocates still haven't accepted the terms of the bargain that they struck at the time of the referendum. They get to leave the EU, but at the price of prioritising shutting out foreigners.
At least Faust knew when he sold his soul.
Youve spent years telling us Leavers prime goal was to shut out foreigners Now youre saying Leavers didnt realise this could be a consequence of Leave
I note I've had Peugeot adverts in facebook and now a Lexus advert in twitter for electric cars. Electric cars are going to fulfill that saying about things not changing much quickly but plenty over a long time period.
a vain attempt to distance themselves from the racist Deplorables
Like this?
Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
Yes but what are the betting implications? Boris cannot become leader because as The Times shows, he would be, and would make the Conservative Party, vulnerable to the same sorts of attacks deployed against Corbyn and Labour over antisemitism. Rival Tory leadership candidates will have files full of this stuff, so lay Boris for leader.
Boris is the current ERG candidate-presumptive, with JRM's support. The question is who will inherit this ERG support. I don't know, but it might be worth scanning through the longer-priced runners.
So what, none of that stopped Corbyn winning the Labour membership vote 3 times, nor would it stop Boris winning the Tory membership vote.
It will stop Boris getting to the membership vote. Most MPs will not vote for Boris once it is made clear, as it will be, the consequences as outlined above. Cui bono? Is there a clean candidate who can inherit ERG support? You are right that the Brexiteers can send their candidate to the membership, but it won't be Boris.
Boris polls best of the ERG and has the most charisma until that changes he remains frontrunner
I don’t think my opinion of Boris could be any lower.
I’ll be astounded if he gets anywhere near the leadership.
the over 100 mainly ERG MPs who voted to no confidence should be more than enough to get Boris to the final two
Unless they prefer someone else
As stated below that would most likely be Raab
And if they can't agree, and end up splitting their vote?
Once one is knocked out he gets the others vote, there will be more than 1 Remainer and Deal candidate too until the last round
It won't be that binary. MPs will have many reasons for supporting who they do and while Brexit stance might well be the most important thing, it certainly won't be the only thing.
For example, when Liam Fox withdrew in the 2016 contest, he endorsed May. Likewise, in 2005, some of Ken Clarke's first round votes probably went to either Liam Fox or David Davis.
The EU might be a more intense issue now than then but personal factors, judgement, social, economic and other policy preferences, and simple leadership qualities will also matter. Boris and his fans cannot simply assume that if he sees off any other Brexit Ultras, he'll sweep up their votes (not least because there has to be a question mark as to whether he is actually a Brexit Ultra given his late conversion to the cause).
I note I've had Peugeot adverts in facebook and now a Lexus advert in twitter for electric cars. Electric cars are going to fulfill that saying about things not changing much quickly but plenty over a long time period.
The new electric Jaguar I-Pace has been picking up car of the year awards, here and even in Germany where they know a thing or two about making posh motors.
Ah, the B-word. Betrayal. Expect to hear it endlessly over the coming months. Whatever form of Brexit we end up with, Brexiteers will say it betrays the Brexit dream, Remainers that it betrays the British people, young people that it betrays their hopes of a bright future.
In the years to come we also face another mighty wave of betrayed anger: the rage of Leave voters who thought Brexit would cut immigration. Some who campaigned for Leave would rather that the referendum was all about sovereignty (which they consider a high-flown and principled reason) rather than immigration (which they think base and a little racist). Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
I'm no fan of BoJo, but that letter doesn't prove he said anything about Turkey during the referendum. I can quite easily believe that he took no part in writing that letter, nor bothered to read it before putting his name on it.
My favourite part of the letter was its claim that EU policy was "that Turkish acceleration should be ‘accelerated’".
Isn't the point that they'll soon have German (EU) passports and have the ability to come here. Whether they would or not is another matter, but I think it was fair to bring this up in the context of the EU.
They don't need a German passport to come here. That's the point. Non-EU migration is going up.
People who voted for Brexit to stop immigrants are going to feel betrayed.
Which of course no one could have foreseen.
Was it not very obvious that the low paid serfs would still be needed and if they could not come from EU then logic says non EU immigration balloons.
the over 100 mainly ERG MPs who voted to no confidence should be more than enough to get Boris to the final two
Unless they prefer someone else
As stated below that would most likely be Raab
And if they can't agree, and end up splitting their vote?
Indeed. The ERG is not a bloc vote, which is one reason Theresa May is still there.
117 MPs was not enough to no confidence May, so she can stay for the foreseeable future. However if and when May goes 117 MPs is enough to get an ERG candidate in the final 2 to the Tory membership
A very possible final MPs round split, given the limits of tactical voting, is in the region of 145 / 90 / 80. Anyone who can get into the upper 80s in MPs is in with a shout.
It's a sizeable ask for Boris at this juncture, but if you wish it impossible, some work may be required.
Ah, the B-word. Betrayal. Expect to hear it endlessly over the coming months. Whatever form of Brexit we end up with, Brexiteers will say it betrays the Brexit dream, Remainers that it betrays the British people, young people that it betrays their hopes of a bright future.
In the years to come we also face another mighty wave of betrayed anger: the rage of Leave voters who thought Brexit would cut immigration. Some who campaigned for Leave would rather that the referendum was all about sovereignty (which they consider a high-flown and principled reason) rather than immigration (which they think base and a little racist). Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
I'm no fan of BoJo, but that letter doesn't prove he said anything about Turkey during the referendum. I can quite easily believe that he took no part in writing that letter, nor bothered to read it before putting his name on it.
My favourite part of the letter was its claim that EU policy was "that Turkish acceleration should be ‘accelerated’".
Ah, the B-word. Betrayal. Expect to hear it endlessly over the coming months. Whatever form of Brexit we end up with, Brexiteers will say it betrays the Brexit dream, Remainers that it betrays the British people, young people that it betrays their hopes of a bright future.
In the years to come we also face another mighty wave of betrayed anger: the rage of Leave voters who thought Brexit would cut immigration. Some who campaigned for Leave would rather that the referendum was all about sovereignty (which they consider a high-flown and principled reason) rather than immigration (which they think base and a little racist). Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
I'm no fan of BoJo, but that letter doesn't prove he said anything about Turkey during the referendum. I can quite easily believe that he took no part in writing that letter, nor bothered to read it before putting his name on it.
My favourite part of the letter was its claim that EU policy was "that Turkish acceleration should be ‘accelerated’".
That video doesn't show him talking about Turkey during the referendum; it shows journalists asking him questions about it afterwards. Otherwise, why does Crick say "during the 2016 referendum" if it's not recorded in a later year?
BTW I'm not doubting that he did talk about Turkey in the referendum campaign - I've just yet to see a video or hear a recording of it actually happening
This seems to me an obvious downside of the Tiggers not making themselves a party yet. No party, no candidates, no members that aren't already in the House of Commons. For a new party starting out by elections are mana from heaven and they are a lot less frequent than they used to be. They can't afford to keep missing out. If they think their grouping has a future as a party they need to get on with it.
It's a two-edged sword - if they took part and got 4% people would say meh, obviously another minor outfit. But they haven't even started on the job of deciding what they stand for (or if they have any chance of agreeing on it), beyond some generalist waffle. And at present it's very much top-down - they have some MPs and some money and a lot of tweets...
Ah, the B-word. Betrayal. Expect to hear it endlessly over the coming months. Whatever form of Brexit we end up with, Brexiteers will say it betrays the Brexit dream, Remainers that it betrays the British people, young people that it betrays their hopes of a bright future.
In the years to come we also face another mighty wave of betrayed anger: the rage of Leave voters who thought Brexit would cut immigration. Some who campaigned for Leave would rather that the referendum was all about sovereignty (which they consider a high-flown and principled reason) rather than immigration (which they think base and a little racist). Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
I'm no fan of BoJo, but that letter doesn't prove he said anything about Turkey during the referendum. I can quite easily believe that he took no part in writing that letter, nor bothered to read it before putting his name on it.
My favourite part of the letter was its claim that EU policy was "that Turkish acceleration should be ‘accelerated’".
That video doesn't show him talking about Turkey during the referendum; it shows journalists asking him questions about it afterwards. Otherwise, why does Crick say "during the 2016 referendum" if it's not recorded in a later year?
BTW I'm not doubting that he did talk about Turkey in the referendum campaign - I've just yet to see a video or hear a recording of it actually happening
That video includes a clip from June 21 2016 with him talking about it. There are plenty of other examples you can easily find. It's an odd thing to make an issue of in the face of so much evidence.
Leave advocates still haven't accepted the terms of the bargain that they struck at the time of the referendum. They get to leave the EU, but at the price of prioritising shutting out foreigners.
At least Faust knew when he sold his soul.
Trouble is, they were so dumb that they couldn't even work out that of course immigration wouldn't fall.
Because this government for better or worse doesn't want to reduce immigration. Which, although an old battle (albeit @HYUFD still seems to be fighting it), shows explicitly that the EU was never the problem for UK immigration, it was always and continues to be a UK domestic issue.
Leave advocates weren't proposing an end to immigration just that we can control it.
Leave advocates still haven't accepted the terms of the bargain that they struck at the time of the referendum. They get to leave the EU, but at the price of prioritising shutting out foreigners.
At least Faust knew when he sold his soul.
Trouble is, they were so dumb that they couldn't even work out that of course immigration wouldn't fall.
Because this government for better or worse doesn't want to reduce immigration. Which, although an old battle (albeit @HYUFD still seems to be fighting it), shows explicitly that the EU was never the problem for UK immigration, it was always and continues to be a UK domestic issue.
Leave advocates weren't proposing an end to immigration just that we can control it.
And can we? Did the government decide to increase non-EU immigration since the referendum?
Isn't the point that they'll soon have German (EU) passports and have the ability to come here. Whether they would or not is another matter, but I think it was fair to bring this up in the context of the EU.
They don't need a German passport to come here. That's the point. Non-EU migration is going up.
People who voted for Brexit to stop immigrants are going to feel betrayed.
Which of course no one could have foreseen.
Was it not very obvious that the low paid serfs would still be needed and if they could not come from EU then logic says non EU immigration balloons.
Of course it was Malc. I never said the Leaver buffoons are blessed with logical thinking.
Ah, the B-word. Betrayal. Expect to hear it endlessly over the coming months. Whatever form of Brexit we end up with, Brexiteers will say it betrays the Brexit dream, Remainers that it betrays the British people, young people that it betrays their hopes of a bright future.
In the years to come we also face another mighty wave of betrayed anger: the rage of Leave voters who thought Brexit would cut immigration. Some who campaigned for Leave would rather that the referendum was all about sovereignty (which they consider a high-flown and principled reason) rather than immigration (which they think base and a little racist). Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
I'm no fan of BoJo, but that letter doesn't prove he said anything about Turkey during the referendum. I can quite easily believe that he took no part in writing that letter, nor bothered to read it before putting his name on it.
My favourite part of the letter was its claim that EU policy was "that Turkish acceleration should be ‘accelerated’".
That video doesn't show him talking about Turkey during the referendum; it shows journalists asking him questions about it afterwards. Otherwise, why does Crick say "during the 2016 referendum" if it's not recorded in a later year?
BTW I'm not doubting that he did talk about Turkey in the referendum campaign - I've just yet to see a video or hear a recording of it actually happening
That video includes a clip from June 21 2016 with him talking about it. There are plenty of other examples you can easily find. It's an odd thing to make an issue of in the face of so much evidence.
Ah yes, missed that bit. It's certainly a mention of it; shame there isn't a bit more of the recording to see the context. If it's just that one sentence then I could believe he'd forgotten it, and it's not exactly xenophobic on its own.
I recall in the heady euphoria of the June 1987 election aftermath before the storm and the stock market crash hearing Margaret Thatcher urging the Conservatives to "go into the inner cities" which had been the only areas with the temerity not to back the Party in the election.
To be honest, that amounted to little more than Thatcher picking litter under the awestruck gaze of Richard Branson. May, on the other hand, has channelled her inner Heseltine since Day 1. In her eyes, it seems, anyone if not everyone should be voting Conservative.
Her pledges on workers' rights (and it's interesting she states her commitment is hers not her Party's and lasts only while she is leader) were also part of trying into break into Labour areas and this morning we see a not terribly subtle cash bribe going into those areas which are yet to see the Conservative light.
May is a One Nation Conservative at a time when so many forces are seemingly conspiring to rip everything apart - the Union, the Conservative Party as two examples. As someone whose earnest desire is to hold everything together, managing as divisive an activity as Brexit must be personally and politically tortuous for her. It is as though however the only outcome that matters is keeping everything together irrespective of what that outcome is and what will mean in the future.
Holding the Conservative Party and the Union together at the potential cost of the long term economic prospects and opportunities of the nation - that's a trade off.
This seems to me an obvious downside of the Tiggers not making themselves a party yet. No party, no candidates, no members that aren't already in the House of Commons. For a new party starting out by elections are mana from heaven and they are a lot less frequent than they used to be. They can't afford to keep missing out. If they think their grouping has a future as a party they need to get on with it.
It's a two-edged sword - if they took part and got 4% people would say meh, obviously another minor outfit. But they haven't even started on the job of deciding what they stand for (or if they have any chance of agreeing on it), beyond some generalist waffle. And at present it's very much top-down - they have some MPs and some money and a lot of tweets...
But you are only the new kids once. If you miss that chance you become just like the others and no one likes any of them. I agree that, other than not Brexit, it is not clear what the Tiggers actually want. Some motherhood and apple pie values and "evidence based" policy ideals didn't really cut it but at the moment they can simply stand on not being part of the others. Not for much longer though.
This seems to me an obvious downside of the Tiggers not making themselves a party yet. No party, no candidates, no members that aren't already in the House of Commons. For a new party starting out by elections are mana from heaven and they are a lot less frequent than they used to be. They can't afford to keep missing out. If they think their grouping has a future as a party they need to get on with it.
It's a two-edged sword - if they took part and got 4% people would say meh, obviously another minor outfit. But they haven't even started on the job of deciding what they stand for (or if they have any chance of agreeing on it), beyond some generalist waffle. And at present it's very much top-down - they have some MPs and some money and a lot of tweets...
The national polling suggests that if they took it seriously, they'd get a lot more than 4%. But if they were taking it properly, they'd have already registered a Party name and would be actively trying to recruit defectors from all three main parties, or from Con and Lab and then seeking an alliance with the LDs (which IMO would be a bad strategy but an understandable one).
For any election, you don't need a detailed manifesto, you need at most three main messages. TIGs would be something like: - Stop Brexit; - The Tories and Labour are both useless (and Labour is a bit racist too): Protest; - It's time for a change.
I reckon that with a half-decent candidate and campaign, they should be able to pick up 15% at least given the former LD vote there and current circumstances; possibly much more. But even if it was just 15%, that would probably put them in a clear third and contrast them starkly with the Lib Dems. It might also affect the winner (though my guess is that it wouldn't), which would put the cat among them more generally, which is surely a TIG aim?
I recall in the heady euphoria of the June 1987 election aftermath before the storm and the stock market crash hearing Margaret Thatcher urging the Conservatives to "go into the inner cities" which had been the only areas with the temerity not to back the Party in the election.
To be honest, that amounted to little more than Thatcher picking litter under the awestruck gaze of Richard Branson. May, on the other hand, has channelled her inner Heseltine since Day 1. In her eyes, it seems, anyone if not everyone should be voting Conservative.
Her pledges on workers' rights (and it's interesting she states her commitment is hers not her Party's and lasts only while she is leader) were also part of trying into break into Labour areas and this morning we see a not terribly subtle cash bribe going into those areas which are yet to see the Conservative light.
May is a One Nation Conservative at a time when so many forces are seemingly conspiring to rip everything apart - the Union, the Conservative Party as two examples. As someone whose earnest desire is to hold everything together, managing as divisive an activity as Brexit must be personally and politically tortuous for her. It is as though however the only outcome that matters is keeping everything together irrespective of what that outcome is and what will mean in the future.
Holding the Conservative Party and the Union together at the potential cost of the long term economic prospects and opportunities of the nation - that's a trade off.
To be honest her choice is hold the Tory Party OR the Union together - she can only do one of those and chances are neither.
Leave advocates still haven't accepted the terms of the bargain that they struck at the time of the referendum. They get to leave the EU, but at the price of prioritising shutting out foreigners.
At least Faust knew when he sold his soul.
Trouble is, they were so dumb that they couldn't even work out that of course immigration wouldn't fall.
Because this government for better or worse doesn't want to reduce immigration. Which, although an old battle (albeit @HYUFD still seems to be fighting it), shows explicitly that the EU was never the problem for UK immigration, it was always and continues to be a UK domestic issue.
Leave advocates weren't proposing an end to immigration just that we can control it.
And can we? Did the government decide to increase non-EU immigration since the referendum?
Sort of.
The government decided to set criteria based on skills, tuition etc that shows what type of migration we want. If more people meet the criteria of what we want then great.
A Chinese student paying tens of thousands to get a degree here, or an Indian doctor, or whoever else can get a visa meeting our controls trumps unskilled Europeans coming here because they can.
I recall in the heady euphoria of the June 1987 election aftermath before the storm and the stock market crash hearing Margaret Thatcher urging the Conservatives to "go into the inner cities" which had been the only areas with the temerity not to back the Party in the election.
To be honest, that amounted to little more than Thatcher picking litter under the awestruck gaze of Richard Branson.
Your posts give me the most low-key laughs on here.
Leave advocates still haven't accepted the terms of the bargain that they struck at the time of the referendum. They get to leave the EU, but at the price of prioritising shutting out foreigners.
At least Faust knew when he sold his soul.
Trouble is, they were so dumb that they couldn't even work out that of course immigration wouldn't fall.
Because this government for better or worse doesn't want to reduce immigration. Which, although an old battle (albeit @HYUFD still seems to be fighting it), shows explicitly that the EU was never the problem for UK immigration, it was always and continues to be a UK domestic issue.
Leave advocates weren't proposing an end to immigration just that we can control it.
Yeah I'm sure they are all over the moon that it hasn't fallen.
Plus it shows what has been obvious to most sensible people (ie no leavers) - it has always been under the government's control; they have just refused to do anything about it.
This seems to me an obvious downside of the Tiggers not making themselves a party yet. No party, no candidates, no members that aren't already in the House of Commons. For a new party starting out by elections are mana from heaven and they are a lot less frequent than they used to be. They can't afford to keep missing out. If they think their grouping has a future as a party they need to get on with it.
It's a two-edged sword - if they took part and got 4% people would say meh, obviously another minor outfit. But they haven't even started on the job of deciding what they stand for (or if they have any chance of agreeing on it), beyond some generalist waffle. And at present it's very much top-down - they have some MPs and some money and a lot of tweets...
The national polling suggests that if they took it seriously, they'd get a lot more than 4%. But if they were taking it properly, they'd have already registered a Party name and would be actively trying to recruit defectors from all three main parties, or from Con and Lab and then seeking an alliance with the LDs (which IMO would be a bad strategy but an understandable one).
For any election, you don't need a detailed manifesto, you need at most three main messages. TIGs would be something like: - Stop Brexit; - The Tories and Labour are both useless (and Labour is a bit racist too): Protest; - It's time for a change.
I reckon that with a half-decent candidate and campaign, they should be able to pick up 15% at least given the former LD vote there and current circumstances; possibly much more. But even if it was just 15%, that would probably put them in a clear third and contrast them starkly with the Lib Dems. It might also affect the winner (though my guess is that it wouldn't), which would put the cat among them more generally, which is surely a TIG aim?
The biggest risk to TIG is that there is an early general election and that without any party organisation, they get swept away.
Will the derisory Stronger Towns announcement be used by some northern Labour MPs to justify weighing in behind what is now party policy: ie to support May’s deal subject to a confirmatory public vote?
Leave advocates weren't proposing an end to immigration just that we can control it.
We haven't even changed the immigration system yet — the white paper came out in December 2018 — so whatever is happening now is a "problem" with the current system.
The new system won't even have an immigration cap, but keep the broad 100k net per year target, with the government believing that the new income requirements, benefits eligigiblity rules, and end of free movement will nudge immigration in that direction.
I suspect that the UK will still see immigration topping 200k a year whatever happens, the UK is simply too attractive a place to move to for it to fall back to the levels of the past.
Quite honestly post-Brexit with business investment bouncing back, as seems likely, we may well see a spike in immigration, we might even set a new record.
Boris Johnson might well not make the last three, never mind the last two. I'm not at all convinced that he will get as far as submitting himself to the verdict of his fellow MPs. He didn't last time.
That remains the great unknown factor. What has changed since 2016 that made him not a candidate then, but a candidate now? Surely not just his marriage?
Gove has pinky-sworn to support him properly this time.
I would suggest that all the reasons Gove had for not supporting him last time have been reinforced in spades by Boris' tenure at the Foreign Office. Supporting him the next time round would be utterly ridiculous after all the additional damning evidence.
Ah, the B-word. Betrayal. Expect to hear it endlessly over the coming months. Whatever form of Brexit we end up with, Brexiteers will say it betrays the Brexit dream, Remainers that it betrays the British people, young people that it betrays their hopes of a bright future.
In the years to come we also face another mighty wave of betrayed anger: the rage of Leave voters who thought Brexit would cut immigration. Some who campaigned for Leave would rather that the referendum was all about sovereignty (which they consider a high-flown and principled reason) rather than immigration (which they think base and a little racist). Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
I'm no fan of BoJo, but that letter doesn't prove he said anything about Turkey during the referendum. I can quite easily believe that he took no part in writing that letter, nor bothered to read it before putting his name on it.
My favourite part of the letter was its claim that EU policy was "that Turkish acceleration should be ‘accelerated’".
Turkey is jerky.
In summary - Cameron/EU fibs over Turkey are fine, Bojo fibs are AWFUL WACISM.
Boris Johnson might well not make the last three, never mind the last two. I'm not at all convinced that he will get as far as submitting himself to the verdict of his fellow MPs. He didn't last time.
That remains the great unknown factor. What has changed since 2016 that made him not a candidate then, but a candidate now? Surely not just his marriage?
Gove has pinky-sworn to support him properly this time.
I would suggest that all the reasons Gove had for not supporting him last time have been reinforced in spades by Boris' tenure at the Foreign Office. Supporting him the next time round would be utterly ridiculous after all the additional damning evidence.
Gove not supporting Boris is a huge plus in the Gove for PM column. His judgement has shown to be spot on.
Laughably some are trying to suggest this is a negative for Gove.
To be honest her choice is hold the Tory Party OR the Union together - she can only do one of those and chances are neither.
Perhaps but you only have to read the comments of HYUFD or the other Conservative members to know how important "our precious union" is to them - it's part of their name, it's at the core of their identity.
The whole Ulster issue and all that has flowed from that is part of that problem - a different pro-Brexit Government might have sold Ulster down the river (with all that would flow) for the possibility of a clean break from the SM and the CU. May could not do that because she is a Unionist (possibly more than a Conservative).
So many of her public utterances have been about unity and bringing the nation together whereas a more ideologically minded Brexit Government wouldn't have worried about that.
Ultimately, the definition of a "good deal" is one that holds the Union and the Conservative Party together.
To be honest her choice is hold the Tory Party OR the Union together - she can only do one of those and chances are neither.
Perhaps but you only have to read the comments of HYUFD or the other Conservative members to know how important "our precious union" is to them - it's part of their name, it's at the core of their identity.
The whole Ulster issue and all that has flowed from that is part of that problem - a different pro-Brexit Government might have sold Ulster down the river (with all that would flow) for the possibility of a clean break from the SM and the CU. May could not do that because she is a Unionist (possibly more than a Conservative).
So many of her public utterances have been about unity and bringing the nation together whereas a more ideologically minded Brexit Government wouldn't have worried about that.
Ultimately, the definition of a "good deal" is one that holds the Union and the Conservative Party together.
To be honest her choice is hold the Tory Party OR the Union together - she can only do one of those and chances are neither.
Perhaps but you only have to read the comments of HYUFD or the other Conservative members to know how important "our precious union" is to them - it's part of their name, it's at the core of their identity.
The whole Ulster issue and all that has flowed from that is part of that problem - a different pro-Brexit Government might have sold Ulster down the river (with all that would flow) for the possibility of a clean break from the SM and the CU. May could not do that because she is a Unionist (possibly more than a Conservative).
So many of her public utterances have been about unity and bringing the nation together whereas a more ideologically minded Brexit Government wouldn't have worried about that.
Ultimately, the definition of a "good deal" is one that holds the Union and the Conservative Party together.
Your last sentence is the most important aspect of this to this member
Comments
Push comes to shove, enough will vote in favour of their own medium term job security (ie who's best placed to lead till 2022, then fight an election) to make this anything but academic.
Plaid Cymru - Jonathan Clark
Renew - June Davies
Conservative - Matthew Evans
Labour - Ruth Jones
Abolish the Welsh Assembly - Richard Suchorzewski
Green - Amelia Womack
Apparently we'll be getting Lib Dems and Ukip too, but not the new Brexit Party or anyone aligned to TIG. A market on fewest votes would be interesting.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2019/03/03/01003-20190303ARTFIG00199-macron-invite-les-italiens-a-reinventer-le-reve-europeen.php
Brexit could only control EU immigration and that has fallen, even the hardest of Brexits would have no direct link to non EU immigration
Non-EU economic migrants tend to bring their families with them, many of whom are indeed not as well educated as the primary breadwinner.
Once again, the article linked to upthread is helpful
This difference is partly explained by the fact that many non-EU citizens bring family dependents with them who do no work. In 2016 nearly a quarter of those who migrated from outside the EU (53,000 people) came to join members of their family.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/03/new-ukip-members-shifting-party-far-right
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/03/new-ukip-gerard-batten-corbyn-hard-right-momentum
There's also the question of his colourful personal life, and plenty of evidence that he's not a trustworthy individual.
Oh, and Michael Gove will almost certainly be standing again next time.
The Brexit campaign majored on preventing non-EU migrants.
None of the people in that poster is an EU migrant.
People who voted for that will feel betrayed.
Hating all immigration EU or non EU is not related to Brexit directly which only concerns sovereignty and EU immigration
People who voted for Brexit to stop immigrants are going to feel betrayed.
He polls well amongst people who are not the electorate to get him on the ballot
Part of the problem remainers - particularly Labour remainers - had during the referendum, is they couldn't really be seen to be opposed to the non-EU immigration.
Brexit voters are going to feel betrayed when that doesn't happen.
Your assumption is the pro-ERG vote outweighs the anti-BoZo vote.
Their is no evidence for that, or that the ERG can devise a voting strategy that is not entirely self-defeating.
History and precedent are not on your side of the argument
At least Faust knew when he sold his soul.
Now youre saying Leavers didnt realise this could be a consequence of Leave
Consistently inconsistent Mr M
Because this government for better or worse doesn't want to reduce immigration. Which, although an old battle (albeit @HYUFD still seems to be fighting it), shows explicitly that the EU was never the problem for UK immigration, it was always and continues to be a UK domestic issue.
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/rationalist-destroys-leavers-with-list-of-all-eu-laws-that-have-been-forced-on-us-against-our-will/22/01/?fbclid=IwAR14iK1xh4yjj-rAzGvXP3kGscT8JD8g6-KJCOcUI2k5cOnLVWnEUIrTyOg
While Brazil and Continental Europe have a blowout of dancing, booze, feasting and gratuitous sex, the English make pancakes.
I’ll be astounded if he gets anywhere near the leadership.
For example, when Liam Fox withdrew in the 2016 contest, he endorsed May. Likewise, in 2005, some of Ken Clarke's first round votes probably went to either Liam Fox or David Davis.
The EU might be a more intense issue now than then but personal factors, judgement, social, economic and other policy preferences, and simple leadership qualities will also matter. Boris and his fans cannot simply assume that if he sees off any other Brexit Ultras, he'll sweep up their votes (not least because there has to be a question mark as to whether he is actually a Brexit Ultra given his late conversion to the cause).
My favourite part of the letter was its claim that EU policy was "that Turkish acceleration should be ‘accelerated’".
Turkey is jerky.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6767599/Family-Syrian-refugee-16-sue-EDL-founder-Tommy-Robinson.html
It's a sizeable ask for Boris at this juncture, but if you wish it impossible, some work may be required.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47428515?ncid=newsletter-ukThe Waugh Zone 040319&utm_campaign=newsletter-The Waugh Zone 040319
LOL.
BTW I'm not doubting that he did talk about Turkey in the referendum campaign - I've just yet to see a video or hear a recording of it actually happening
I recall in the heady euphoria of the June 1987 election aftermath before the storm and the stock market crash hearing Margaret Thatcher urging the Conservatives to "go into the inner cities" which had been the only areas with the temerity not to back the Party in the election.
To be honest, that amounted to little more than Thatcher picking litter under the awestruck gaze of Richard Branson. May, on the other hand, has channelled her inner Heseltine since Day 1. In her eyes, it seems, anyone if not everyone should be voting Conservative.
Her pledges on workers' rights (and it's interesting she states her commitment is hers not her Party's and lasts only while she is leader) were also part of trying into break into Labour areas and this morning we see a not terribly subtle cash bribe going into those areas which are yet to see the Conservative light.
May is a One Nation Conservative at a time when so many forces are seemingly conspiring to rip everything apart - the Union, the Conservative Party as two examples. As someone whose earnest desire is to hold everything together, managing as divisive an activity as Brexit must be personally and politically tortuous for her. It is as though however the only outcome that matters is keeping everything together irrespective of what that outcome is and what will mean in the future.
Holding the Conservative Party and the Union together at the potential cost of the long term economic prospects and opportunities of the nation - that's a trade off.
For any election, you don't need a detailed manifesto, you need at most three main messages. TIGs would be something like:
- Stop Brexit;
- The Tories and Labour are both useless (and Labour is a bit racist too): Protest;
- It's time for a change.
I reckon that with a half-decent candidate and campaign, they should be able to pick up 15% at least given the former LD vote there and current circumstances; possibly much more. But even if it was just 15%, that would probably put them in a clear third and contrast them starkly with the Lib Dems. It might also affect the winner (though my guess is that it wouldn't), which would put the cat among them more generally, which is surely a TIG aim?
The government decided to set criteria based on skills, tuition etc that shows what type of migration we want. If more people meet the criteria of what we want then great.
A Chinese student paying tens of thousands to get a degree here, or an Indian doctor, or whoever else can get a visa meeting our controls trumps unskilled Europeans coming here because they can.
Plus it shows what has been obvious to most sensible people (ie no leavers) - it has always been under the government's control; they have just refused to do anything about it.
https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1102487305120612352
It's almost as if May wants Labour MPs to force through a Remain vs Deal referendum.
This fund also needs to be expanded 10 fold...
The new system won't even have an immigration cap, but keep the broad 100k net per year target, with the government believing that the new income requirements, benefits eligigiblity rules, and end of free movement will nudge immigration in that direction.
I suspect that the UK will still see immigration topping 200k a year whatever happens, the UK is simply too attractive a place to move to for it to fall back to the levels of the past.
Quite honestly post-Brexit with business investment bouncing back, as seems likely, we may well see a spike in immigration, we might even set a new record.
Just chuck 16 billion at the regions to get the deal through and be done with it...
https://twitter.com/silvesterldn/status/1102508283481473030
Laughably some are trying to suggest this is a negative for Gove.
The whole Ulster issue and all that has flowed from that is part of that problem - a different pro-Brexit Government might have sold Ulster down the river (with all that would flow) for the possibility of a clean break from the SM and the CU. May could not do that because she is a Unionist (possibly more than a Conservative).
So many of her public utterances have been about unity and bringing the nation together whereas a more ideologically minded Brexit Government wouldn't have worried about that.
Ultimately, the definition of a "good deal" is one that holds the Union and the Conservative Party together.
Fighting yesterday's war.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47428515