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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour should win Newport West
Byelectionitis is not a condition that usually afflicts the Conservative Party and, to be fair, nor is it doing so now. The demands of government and particularly Brexit are inevitably occupying the attention of the Party and its members, both activist and elected. All the same, the flurry of positive polls for the Tories since the TIG split suggesting a Con lead of around 7-8% over Labour begs the question of whether they can win Newport West.
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Will the TIG group stand someone on an independent anti-Brexit ticket, or will Farage himself stand for his new party? One of our Welsh posters (@YBarddCwsc?) mentioned a big local issue in the plans to bypass the M4 Brynglas tunnels, so maybe we have a candidate standing for or against that development too.
It’s possible to lay Lab at 1.28 on Betfair Exchange, which is better than backing Con for the same price.
Edit: er, or possibly the Tories instead.
Looking back through a few election, the Lab majority has broadly been withering on the vine. To me that has the feel of the process that has happened in Bolsover to Skinner (largest employer: McArthur Glen shopping centre) and Mansfield to Alan Meale over the last 30 years.
How do incomers to Newport vote, even though the redevelopment of ex-steelworks land is not major yet?
As I see it, there will probably be both TIG and "Brexit - Yur !" candidates.
Are Momentum active here?
In the years to come we also face another mighty wave of betrayed anger: the rage of Leave voters who thought Brexit would cut immigration. Some who campaigned for Leave would rather that the referendum was all about sovereignty (which they consider a high-flown and principled reason) rather than immigration (which they think base and a little racist). Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/leavers-immigration-hopes-will-be-betrayed-ps29sjrc6
The 'old Labour' areas in Newport may not be impressed with the current Labour party but there's next to no chance of them switching to the Tories. A lot of Labour voters would have to stay at home for the Tories to nick this seat.
Ironically from what I know of the seat a hard-right anti-immigration pro-Brexit candidate campaigning on immigration and in favour of the M4 relief road would probably have the best chance of winning it for the Tories - so it's probably as well Labour is likely to hold it!
Only 11 days until the first F1 weekend begins. I'll be putting up the qualifying tosh on Friday, given the timing (not getting up at 3am or so to watch a practice session).
Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.
However, in terms of your point as far as Newport West goes, you're right and it's a point I should have made in the article: at the by-election, there is no risk of a Corbyn government - unlike, obviously, at a general election. The incentive to support a government not well regarded in order to keep out a Leader of the Opposition even less-well regarded is therefore not present. Anti-Corbyn voters need to be motivated by a desire to actively vote against him, rather than a concern over what he might do if elected, which requires a much stronger degree of dissatisfaction.
https://twitter.com/annaturley/status/1102349071438807040
I suspect any Labour MP who was thinking about voting for the deal will be having doubts especially when the figures are this clear.
This isn't the same as Bolsover, where back in the 1980s, there was a rock-solid Labour majority (about 14k in both 1983 and 1987 - and they were the smallest for Labour since the seat was first fought in 1950).
And I doubt leave voting and relatively poor areas along the south coast and in the south west will be very happy, either.
May does have a remarkable talent for coming up with ideas that upset absolutely everybody.
And to think some PB Tories believe the 2017 campaign was a one-off!
The Welsh Government must surely have to come to a decision about the M4 relief plans by then (6 line by pass of Brynglas Tunnels). The report is on Mark Drakeford's desk. I expect he will approve this controversial scheme.
That will surely generate local candidates opposed to the road.
The 6% lead reported in the non-TIG-included Opinium poll is slightly down on others recently but still represents a pro-Con swing since the 2017GE but not, IMO, anything like big enough to make the Tories contenders in Newport unless exceptional local factors are in play.
Obviously, that's not to say that things can't change between now and polling day - most obviously, *something* important will happen regarding Brexit, and there's also the chance of Labour's divisions worsening. But as things stand, it should be a comfortable gain, and the chances of a significant change in the Tories' favour over the next month big enough to put the by-election on a knife-edge are a good deal less than 4/1.
Anyhow there is enough potential 'interest' from Tory rural areas within those regions as a whole to incentivise some government creativity when it comes to working up the allocation
That said, I don't think that Newport West is quite the same in nature as an ex-mining Valleys seat.
I always thought people on the left understood as a matter of instinct: that when faced with bigotry, you listen not to voices of denial and doubt, but to the people on the receiving end of it.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/04/labour-antisemitism-party-left-bigotry
Boris is the current ERG candidate-presumptive, with JRM's support. The question is who will inherit this ERG support. I don't know, but it might be worth scanning through the longer-priced runners.
The result will be affected by the tone of euphoria/disaster/indifference which will lead every front page and bulletin for the 5 days before: is May the hero of the nation, a traitor, or in the middle of a Cobra meeting in Folkestone?
And given we’re not overrun with scoobies as to what’s likely to happen, predicting this one feels even trickier than usual!
For example, the two main abusers of Luciana Berger were reportedly the Branch Chair, and the elected representative to the Elected Representative to the National Policy Forum.
Equally, the internal report on Liverpool Riverside is an eye-opener, and there is no shortage of other evidence.
Even after Corbyn, circumlocutions and weasel-words are unlikely to cut it imo.
The Islamophobia claims against the Tories are quite a bit less fundamental in the party, IMO. We can go through the list if you like.
Ref:
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/wavertree-clp-member-in-zionist-attacks-on-luciana-berger-1.480143
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/plot-to-oust-mp-ellman-spearheaded-by-a-former-member-of-the-trotskyist-militant-tendency-1.480621?highlight=riverside
His was an interesting view (it's the final five minutes of Sunday's programme on BBC Sounds). And, perhaps, better suited to these social media days when it is possible to build a nationwide movement without having to fight campaigns on paving stones and dog mess?
That's how Liz is referring to herself now.
The Truss.
Either way, this week’s headlines about TIGs and anti-semitism are likely to be chip paper by then, notwithstanding Corbyn’s innate ability to douse a fire with plutonium.
Have a good morning.
But, I guess I was wondering whether the controversy over the M4 relief road will split the local Labour party & generate such a candidate. (The Labour AMs are split).
It seems difficult for a by-election candidate not to have an opinion on this huge local issue (which has been dragging on for years). And any opinion will lose some votes.
I'd wait to find out who the Labour candidate is before placing bets.
but they will not.
The Clangers must be worried. The Soup Dragon is setting up group therapy sessions. But no-one will be able to reach them once Grayling buggers the trains.
Re Tiggers I don’t think they should be in a hurry. There will be plenty of time and by-elections to come. We have a FTPA so they don’t need to act too much on 24-hr rolling news time.
With a currently bi-party membership they also have some (as well as Brexit) policy thinking to do.
https://www.sharecast.com/amp/news/news-and-announcements--/immigration-from-eu-into-the-uk-at-10-year-low--3768095.html
People who voted for Brexit to reduce immigration are going to feel betrayed.
There are people whose homes lie on the proposed route.
Rosemary Butler said: "I just hope that they can come up with something which is going resolve the situation once and for all and put my constituents out of their misery. "And some of them are in misery at the moment," she said.
That is the AM for Newport West in .... err ... 2013.
At least Theresa May has the excuse she has no effective majority. Welsh Labour don't have any excuse.
The people who voted for Brexit because they didn't like Poles living next door, do not want Bangladeshis either.
They are going to feel betrayed.
This is the uncomfortable truth the Brexiteers don't like to acknowledge, hence BoZo's wild historical reconstruction
ConHome's new Tory members poll this morning has Raab as the main ERG alternative to Boris, the top 3 are all Leavers and the top 2 No Dealers. Boris leads on 25%, Raab is second on 13% and Gove third on 9% just ahead of Javid who is the top former Remainer on 8.6%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-why-johnson-stays-top-with-minimal-effort.html
Which means pointless extension probably. Any other option still lacking a majority that provides an excuse not to make a decision. It really is unforgivable how MPs simply do not want to make a call and are content to keep chasing unicorns.
Robinson's best result is probably Brexit with a Deal, so the Brexit Party of Farage does not really take off as it would if Brexit was revoked but still leaving a feeling of betrayal with hardline No Deal backing white working class Leavers while non EU immigration continues to rise
As uncomfortable as it may be to say, those from outside the EU are more likely to come from countries whose way of life and beliefs differ from British culture in a problematic way; whose attitudes to women, sexuality and secular freedoms jar with our own. Across swathes of Asia, the Middle East and Africa there prevail attitudes that we rightly condemn as backward and misogynistic. Partly as a consequence of this conflict, some who have migrated to the UK from outside the EU have formed communities that turn their backs on mainstream British culture, preferring isolation to integration.
Glad you got there in the end
If they want no change then they can back remain like the rest of labour and the tiggers.
But they say the Tory parliamentary party is the most sophisticated electorate in the world, so we will see.
But if Boris or Raab gets to last two, they have won. Simples.
In fact, I'm doubtful that an ERG-type candidate would make the final two at all, and if they did, I'm far from sure they'd win.