It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
If they acquired the influence in my party they have in labour of course I would leave. Indeed if the hard brexiteers take us to no deal TIG become very attractive
Surely it would be much more straightforward to have a two-question ballot (do you want to Remain/Leave, do you want to leave with Deal/No Deal) than that confusing AV malarkey.
I am staggered that those proposing a third referendum then demand that the most likely winning option, "Leave on No Deal" is not allowed.
No multiple choice can be fair.
Suppose three options, No Deal, Deal, Remain. None gets 50%. Then what ? Presumably either Deal or Remain is then the first losing option, probably deal say. The second votes of Deal will go heavily to No Deal presumably so No Deal wins
Remain loses first, then they will all go to deal, so Deal wins
Of course a lot don't give a second choice in AV elections. And in this scenario neither Remainers nor No Dealers should.
IF we were being logical we would say "Remain" has already lost therefore it would be Deal / No Deal. Deal would win as Remainers would presumably come out to vote for it.
OR we say if Deal and No Deal add up to over 50% then we leave on which ever got the more votes. Remain votes and voters would be discounted.
If some of these options seem bizarre they are no more bizarre than the option of Deal or Remain.
Corbyn's marched with banners of Stalin, Lenin, the hammer and sickle. He's presided over, and continues to do so, the rise of anti-Semitism in Labour.
Why are hammer and sickle banners ok? Why's Stalin ok? Towards the end of his reign, Stalin committed an anti-Jewish genocide. That's before we consider all the people he starved, consigned to slave labour, or had killed in earlier genocidal fits of heartless violence.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
There's a clear reason to leave if you think that the party doesn't represent your views. Suppose I'm a party of one and three MRL (monster raving loony) people somehow join. Should I stay and fight? I might choose to, but its quite clear that the party isn't what it was and is now MRL.
Labour is not what it was.
Even when it was what it was, it was a very nasty collection of those that would choose to leap and steal above endeavor. Now it's far worse.
Leave with No Deal 40% Leave with May's Deal 20% Remain 40%
Second round:
Leave with No Deal 45% Remain 55%
That’s how Leave 60% loses to Remain 40%
AV is bollocks for a referendum.
AV is the Cheat's Charter.
No wonder remain like it
You CANNOT have over 50% voting leave and not leaving. This makes the options I explored elsewhere seem relatively reasonable. I think you make the point in effect that it would have to be two questions.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
If they acquired the influence in my party they have in labour of course I would leave. Indeed if the hard brexiteers take us to no deal TIG become very attractive
I didn't think that would be your response but fair play, everyone has to make a difficult decision in such circumstances.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
If they acquired the influence in my party they have in labour of course I would leave. Indeed if the hard brexiteers take us to no deal TIG become very attractive
I didn't think that would be your response but fair play, everyone has to make a difficult decision in such circumstances.
Mr. NorthWales, if the ERG made the telling difference I can perhaps see that reasoning, but if a majority of blue MPs back a deal but it's thwarted largely due to Labour opposing, it seems a strange reasoning to me.
Your decision to remain or leave would be determined by factors (the way Labour and other non-Conservative MPs vote) that are beyond the capacity of the PM or Parliamentary Conservative Party to control. Not only that, a few ERGers and a lot of non-Conservatives have a tactical vested interest in exacerbating the current Conservative split (as per those who voted Leave in the referendum because they wanted to kick Cameron).
We'd probably had STV years ago but for the fact that Irish have it, so in Tory minds it must be a bad idea. It was in fact recommended by a Speakers Conference around 1920. To be fair to the Tories, though, the Jenkins Report in 1998 or thereabouts was, allegedly, treated very sympathetically by Tony Blair but nearly gave John Prescott a fit.
Its a lovely system but can drag on for days in Ireland. At the 15th count Paddy O Shea of Renua was finally elected in Carlow Kilkenny having exceeded the quota - I doubt our 24 hour news instant results news cycle could cope! In Ireland its different and a more intimate affair as everyone knows their candidates/local TDs and most will have met them personally. Not sure how it would fair in England say?
Of course STV was actually introduced in Ireland by the UK government in 1919 (the Lloyd George Tory coalition) - to guarantee unionists won seats as multi member constituencies were more likely to deliver that. And the Irish free state kept it!
So the Tories didn't mind STV - for the Irish to ensure their Unionist allies won seats in the 1920 Irish local elections and 1921 Home rule elections.
The main weakness of the Irish system is the transferring of the votes. It cannot be totally fair because of over quota voting and the need to apportion. It would be much better and actually fair if it were Single Candidate-Transferred Vote. So if I vote for Joe Bloggs, he is eliminated and he transfers his votes to Peter Blott. If I don't want this to happen as the voter then I don't vote for Joe Bloggs in the first place.
The second weakness is the constituencies are far too small.
Corbyn's marched with banners of Stalin, Lenin, the hammer and sickle. He's presided over, and continues to do so, the rise of anti-Semitism in Labour.
Why are hammer and sickle banners ok? Why's Stalin ok? Towards the end of his reign, Stalin committed an anti-Jewish genocide. That's before we consider all the people he starved, consigned to slave labour, or had killed in earlier genocidal fits of heartless violence.
'Marched with'. Means nothing. I have been on marches where some of the other marchers have been members of far-left nutjob groups. Doesn't mean I support those groups, just the cause we were marching for.
Mr. NorthWales, if the ERG made the telling difference I can perhaps see that reasoning, but if a majority of blue MPs back a deal but it's thwarted largely due to Labour opposing, it seems a strange reasoning to me.
Your decision to remain or leave would be determined by factors (the way Labour and other non-Conservative MPs vote) that are beyond the capacity of the PM or Parliamentary Conservative Party to control. Not only that, a few ERGers and a lot of non-Conservatives have a tactical vested interest in exacerbating the current Conservative split (as per those who voted Leave in the referendum because they wanted to kick Cameron).
Fair comment but if we no deal and ERG take over the party will split anyway
Mr. Rentool, Corbyn refused to share stages with the likes of Cameron during the referendum campaign. If he refuses to attend events with a Conservative Prime Minister, yet agrees to march alongside Stalin banners, it's not unreasonable (indeed, it's the most logical conclusion) that his decision to attend or not is based on his own personal approval, or not, for given people.
Would you march alongside people carrying Nazi flags if they agreed with you, for example, on the urgent need to improve free speech laws? Would you march with banners of Hitler? And, if Corbyn did, would you criticise or condone that action?
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
There's a clear reason to leave if you think that the party doesn't represent your views. Suppose I'm a party of one and three MRL (monster raving loony) people somehow join. Should I stay and fight? I might choose to, but its quite clear that the party isn't what it was and is now MRL.
Labour is not what it was.
Even when it was what it was, it was a very nasty collection of those that would choose to leap and steal above endeavor. Now it's far worse.
'leap and steal above endeavor' - sounds like a good working definition of Capitalism.
Mr. Rentool, Corbyn refused to share stages with the likes of Cameron during the referendum campaign. If he refuses to attend events with a Conservative Prime Minister, yet agrees to march alongside Stalin banners, it's not unreasonable (indeed, it's the most logical conclusion) that his decision to attend or not is based on his own personal approval, or not, for given people.
Would you march alongside people carrying Nazi flags if they agreed with you, for example, on the urgent need to improve free speech laws? Would you march with banners of Hitler? And, if Corbyn did, would you criticise or condone that action?
Corbyn is an extremist! His whole life seems to be reflected about supporting minority viewpoints and extremists who often use weapons against innocent people.
Both in the Conservatives and in politics generally, the side that loses may be more fired up than the side that wins. The whole thing is turbulent and unpredictable.
Mr. Rentool, Corbyn refused to share stages with the likes of Cameron during the referendum campaign. If he refuses to attend events with a Conservative Prime Minister, yet agrees to march alongside Stalin banners, it's not unreasonable (indeed, it's the most logical conclusion) that his decision to attend or not is based on his own personal approval, or not, for given people.
Would you march alongside people carrying Nazi flags if they agreed with you, for example, on the urgent need to improve free speech laws? Would you march with banners of Hitler? And, if Corbyn did, would you criticise or condone that action?
Interesting question - you're at a rally that gets hijacked by the far right - what do you do? I would hopefully have the guts to tell the extremists to feck off, that they are not welcome and if possible ask the event organisers to expel them. If I knew in advance that these types were attending then I wouldn't be there.
Mr. Rentool, a good answer, and a better one than Corbyn could give as he's repeatedly marched alongside the precise equivalent of the Nazis (Stalin/hammer-and-sickle banners) without once, to my knowledge, calling them out.
But for some people, those responsible for 20 million odd deaths and millions in slave labour camps are ok because they're far left, rather than far right.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
There's a clear reason to leave if you think that the party doesn't represent your views. Suppose I'm a party of one and three MRL (monster raving loony) people somehow join. Should I stay and fight? I might choose to, but its quite clear that the party isn't what it was and is now MRL.
Labour is not what it was.
Even when it was what it was, it was a very nasty collection of those that would choose to leap and steal above endeavor. Now it's far worse.
'leap and steal above endeavor' - sounds like a good working definition of Capitalism.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
The fight has been ongoing - they continue on grabbing control of the levers of power.
At what point do you pass from fighting to enabling?
Mr. Rentool, a good answer, and a better one than Corbyn could give as he's repeatedly marched alongside the precise equivalent of the Nazis (Stalin/hammer-and-sickle banners) without once, to my knowledge, calling them out.
But for some people, those responsible for 20 million odd deaths and millions in slave labour camps are ok because they're far left, rather than far right.
it's ok - they "didn't see them" even though they at the same event year in year out and near enough waving them in your face.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
There reaches a point though. If they were ex bnp and now Con because they had seen the light on their previous views is different to them using the cons to further their unchanged views. If they started presenting motions at association meetings that blacks and Indians should go home, and they win those motions. If they started to get selected for council seats. If the party had changed in such a way as to no longer follow my values, and I was outnumbered I would leave.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Mr. Rentool, a good answer, and a better one than Corbyn could give as he's repeatedly marched alongside the precise equivalent of the Nazis (Stalin/hammer-and-sickle banners) without once, to my knowledge, calling them out.
But for some people, those responsible for 20 million odd deaths and millions in slave labour camps are ok because they're far left, rather than far right.
Yup, this isn’t an event hijscked by the far left, this is an event of the far left. https://goo.gl/images/ejCRTq
It is utterly impossible to think a Conservative would allow themselves to be surrounded by swatikas and giving a speech to an event. They would be rightly crucified.
Under a FPTP choice of Remain, Deal, No Deal, Remain would likely win any EUref2, under the same choice under AV though the Deal could win, under a Leave v Remain then if Leave, Leave with the Deal or No Deal choice Leave with the Deal also has a strong chance of winning
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
Under a FPTP choice of Remain, Deal, No Deal, Remain would likely win any EUref2, under the same choice under AV though the Deal could win, under a Leave v Remain then if Leave, Leave with the Deal or No Deal choice Leave with the Deal also has a strong chance of winning
Remain means different things to different people.
Under FPTP, it would be better to say
Remain, with a mandate for further integration Remain, but no further integration, any further integration must trigger another referendum Leave with May's deal Leave without a deal
Surely it would be much more straightforward to have a two-question ballot (do you want to Remain/Leave, do you want to leave with Deal/No Deal) than that confusing AV malarkey.
If you want to be fairer to the original result, you could start from the position of:
Q1: Do you accept TM's negotiated deal to leave? Yes/No Q2: If No, do you wish to Remain or Leave With No Deal
I think that's the best option, to have a referendum on "Do you support this deal? Y/N"
There's precisely no chance of it happening though, because almost no-one supports it outside the government payroll of MPs.
This is something which baffles me.
If the ERG didn't want May doing the negotiation why did they do nothing to stop May's negotiation until it was too late.
Or at least come up with a credible alternative.
Well, quite. The time to object was December 2017, not at the last minute.
The time was after May had lost the majority.
Or even the Conservative leadership contest in 2016.
The ERG haven't offered anything constructive since the Referendum.
Maybe the Welsh people should be given an opportunity to see if they've changed their minds since 1997 on whether to have an Assembly, given that it was approved by the very small margin of 50.3% to 49.7%.
I think you’ll find that the Welsh political parties have enjoyed the fruits of the Assembly.
Labour is no longer ambivalent, having twigged that there are well-paid jobs on offer for the bruvvers and sisters. In fact, last I heard, Labour wanted to double the size of the assembly.
Of course, the Welsh people continue as poor as ever, with the Poverty Party in control of the Senedd since inception.
Under a FPTP choice of Remain, Deal, No Deal, Remain would likely win any EUref2, under the same choice under AV though the Deal could win, under a Leave v Remain then if Leave, Leave with the Deal or No Deal choice Leave with the Deal also has a strong chance of winning
Remain means different things to different people.
Under FPTP, it would be better to say
Remain, with a mandate for further integration Remain, but no further integration, any further integration must trigger another referendum Leave with May's deal Leave without a deal
In which case May's Deal would likely win by a comfortable margin even under FPTP
Under a FPTP choice of Remain, Deal, No Deal, Remain would likely win any EUref2, under the same choice under AV though the Deal could win, under a Leave v Remain then if Leave, Leave with the Deal or No Deal choice Leave with the Deal also has a strong chance of winning
Remain means different things to different people.
Under FPTP, it would be better to say
Remain, with a mandate for further integration Remain, but no further integration, any further integration must trigger another referendum Leave with May's deal Leave without a deal
In which case May's Deal would likely win by a comfortable margin even under FPTP
Dunno. Having seen how hard the leave route is, and how incompetent our own politicians are, I'd genuinely be tempted by the "remain with no further integration" option. And I say that as a leaver. It'd clearly be a two horse race between that and leave with May's deal.
My point is that the extremists on both sides would be exposed. There are few who want diamond hard brexit now, but there are equally few who want ever closer union with the EU.
Just having "remain" on the ballot paper doesn't reflect Britain's deeply ambivalent relationship with Europe.
There's a majority for treating the EU as a close trading partner. But joining a federal superstate remains a wacky, fringe view. We should split the remain vote to demonstrate that.
If she by a miracle gets it through, we’ll see a falklands style bump in popularity. Cons will do very well in locals in May.
I would not be so sure, the Deal largely keeps the Tory vote intact if it passes with maybe a few diehard No Deal Leavers moving to the Brexit party or UKIP. As most Labour and TIG and LD voters are Remainers few of those will shift to the Tories if Brexit with a Deal passes, though May could pick up a handful of the remaining Labour Leavers.
Remember too the last time the seats up in May were contested was 2015 when the Tories led Labour by 6%, 35% to 29%, with UKIP on 13% and the LDs on 11% so it would be hard for the Tories to make many more gains on that except from UKIP, at best they will be aiming to hold the seats they already have
Under a FPTP choice of Remain, Deal, No Deal, Remain would likely win any EUref2, under the same choice under AV though the Deal could win, under a Leave v Remain then if Leave, Leave with the Deal or No Deal choice Leave with the Deal also has a strong chance of winning
Remain means different things to different people.
Under FPTP, it would be better to say
Remain, with a mandate for further integration Remain, but no further integration, any further integration must trigger another referendum Leave with May's deal Leave without a deal
In which case May's Deal would likely win by a comfortable margin even under FPTP
Dunno. Having seen how hard the leave route is, and how incompetent our own politicians are, I'd genuinely be tempted by the "remain with no further integration" option. And I say that as a leaver. It'd clearly be a two horse race between that and leave with May's deal.
My point is that the extremists on both sides would be exposed. There are few who want diamond hard brexit now, but there are equally few who want ever closer union with the EU.
Just having "remain" on the ballot paper doesn't reflect Britain's deeply ambivalent relationship with Europe.
There's a majority for treating the EU as a close trading partner. But joining a federal superstate remains a wacky, fringe view. We should split the remain vote to demonstrate that.
Leave already beat 'Remain with no further integration' as the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign effectively campaigned on in 2016. However I would have no problem with 2 Remain choices as well as 2 Leave choices in which case as I said I expect May's Deal would win comfortably
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
If she by a miracle gets it through, we’ll see a falklands style bump in popularity. Cons will do very well in locals in May.
I would not be so sure, the Deal largely keeps the Tory vote intact if it passes with maybe a few diehard No Deal Leavers moving to the Brexit party or UKIP. As most Labour and TIG and LD voters are Remainers few of those will shift to the Tories if Brexit with a Deal passes, though May could pick up a handful of the remaining Labour Leavers.
Remember too the last time the seats up in May were contested was 2015 when the Tories led Labour by 6%, 35% to 29%, with UKIP on 13% and the LDs on 11% so it would be hard for the Tories to make many more gains on that except from UKIP, at best they will be aiming to hold the seats they already have
It would be interesting to see a breakdown of who currently holds all the seats that UKIP won in 2015. There have been a lot of UKIP resignations and defections in the last four years.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Apparently TM is to make it binding condition of the vote
Once EUref2 gets around 300 votes, which it likely will have done by the time of a 3rd MV either by the Kyle amendment or through Corbyn proposing it, then that extension effectively becomes a vote for EUref2, which the EU will also likely push for, hence the choice becomes Deal v strong possibility of No Brexit and most of the ERG cave and join Labour MPs from Leave seats to put the Deal over the line
Anecdote alert: almost every single Leave voter I know (I live in London, so there aren't that many) has, in the past few weeks, told me some variation of "only an exit on WTO terms truly satisfies the referendum result".
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Well of course. Parliament is sovereign, and it could bin anything agreed if it wanted to.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
What do they mean in practice when they say they want something on workers’ rights? It looks from the outside like something they know can’t be given, purely as a reason to oppose the deal.
So another dubious decision goes against Fulham, I have not seen the "offside" goal, but these sorts of decisions seem to go against a side in trouble and in the relegation slots, and its nigh on impossible to stop the rot...
A referendum still seems like a less likely possibility.
John Rentoul maintains a spreadsheet which has May’s deal winning 320-310, including the support of the DUP and 35 Labour rebels. (He also assumes 30 ERG hold-outs, of whom 3 abstain.)
Personally I think he is too optimistic about the DUP, and perhaps too pessimistic about the ERG hold-outs. I’d expect DUP not to support the Deal, and only 20 ERG hold-outs, but that wouldn’t change the overall numbers above.
Clearly, if it’s not stating the bleeding obvious, the key factors are going to be how many ERGs hold out, the position of the DUP, and whether anyone persuade Labour’s Northern MPs to back what is now party policy.
So another dubious decision goes against Fulham, I have not seen the "offside" goal, but these sorts of decisions seem to go against a side in trouble and in the relegation slots, and its nigh on impossible to stop the rot...
Remainers salivate at the possibility of splitting the leave vote between deal/no deal which would ultimately lead to us remaining, under AV, as others have pointed out below.
But the remain vote is not a monolith. If there is to be a second referendum, the question isn't just "what does leave look like?"
It should be "what does remain look like?" as well.
Remainers often say that leavers had no idea what leave would look like. Well, right back at you, remain. What happens if we stay?
What does remaining look like? What is there a mandate for? Is there one for ever closer union? The EU army? Tax harmonisation? I'm willing to bet the "people's" vote lot don't want to find out.
If we have a deal/no deal/remain referendum, the only fair choices would be deal/no deal/closer union/in but no closer union.
So another dubious decision goes against Fulham, I have not seen the "offside" goal, but these sorts of decisions seem to go against a side in trouble and in the relegation slots, and its nigh on impossible to stop the rot...
Anecdote alert: almost every single Leave voter I know (I live in London, so there aren't that many) has, in the past few weeks, told me some variation of "only an exit on WTO terms truly satisfies the referendum result".
I find this intensely frustrating.
'Almost' is not enough, Leave only won 52% to 48% so it needs every Leave voter to back WTO terms Brexit over Remain for it to maintain a majority for Brexit
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Workers tend to do better under the Tories. Any particular right for those actually working you'd like to champion?
A referendum still seems like a less likely possibility.
John Rentoul maintains a spreadsheet which has May’s deal winning 320-310, including the support of the DUP and 35 Labour rebels. (He also assumes 30 ERG hold-outs, of whom 3 abstain.)
Personally I think he is too optimistic about the DUP, and perhaps too pessimistic about the ERG hold-outs. I’d expect DUP not to support the Deal, and only 20 ERG hold-outs, but that wouldn’t change the overall numbers above.
Clearly, if it’s not stating the bleeding obvious, the key factors are going to be how many ERGs hold out, the position of the DUP, and whether anyone persuade Labour’s Northern MPs to back what is now party policy.
In my view it will come down to a choice between Deal on a 3rd vote or extension of Article 50 and EUref2, the Commons having voted overwhelmingly against No Deal if the Deal loses on a second vote and for extending Art 50, when the Deal is the last Brexit choice left standing it will win.
That being on the basis there are now about 300 MPs for EUref2, 250 for the Deal (Flint and Snell and a few ERGers etc having moved to back the Deal) and 100 for No Deal. Thus if it came down to EUref2 or No Deal if the Deal is defeated a third time EUref2 likely wins as about 50 Deal backing MPs would switch to EUref2 eg Letwin, Rudd, Clarke, Boles, Burt etc. If it comes down to EUref2 or Deal though Deal likely wins on a third vote as most of the 100 No Dealers cave and join the 250 Dealers to ensure Brexit
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Workers tend to do better under the Tories. Any particular right for those actually working you'd like to champion?
If she by a miracle gets it through, we’ll see a falklands style bump in popularity. Cons will do very well in locals in May.
I would not be so sure, the Deal largely keeps the Tory vote intact if it passes with maybe a few diehard No Deal Leavers moving to the Brexit party or UKIP. As most Labour and TIG and LD voters are Remainers few of those will shift to the Tories if Brexit with a Deal passes, though May could pick up a handful of the remaining Labour Leavers.
Remember too the last time the seats up in May were contested was 2015 when the Tories led Labour by 6%, 35% to 29%, with UKIP on 13% and the LDs on 11% so it would be hard for the Tories to make many more gains on that except from UKIP, at best they will be aiming to hold the seats they already have
It would be interesting to see a breakdown of who currently holds all the seats that UKIP won in 2015. There have been a lot of UKIP resignations and defections in the last four years.
There’s been enormous churn and realignment of voters, by age and region since 2015.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Workers tend to do better under the Tories. Any particular right for those actually working you'd like to champion?
Remain, that is what most workers voted for
But which form of remain?
Remain as things are now, or remain as in ever closer union?
Liverpool just look so tired and desperate, you'd never thing to look at them in the last 5 or so games that they had daylight between them and City not that long ago. The worst thing is City probably do deserve to win the league.
If she by a miracle gets it through, we’ll see a falklands style bump in popularity. Cons will do very well in locals in May.
I would not be so sure, the Deal largely keeps the Tory vote intact if it passes with maybe a few diehard No Deal Leavers moving to the Brexit party or UKIP. As most Labour and TIG and LD voters are Remainers few of those will shift to the Tories if Brexit with a Deal passes, though May could pick up a handful of the remaining Labour Leavers.
Remember too the last time the seats up in May were contested was 2015 when the Tories led Labour by 6%, 35% to 29%, with UKIP on 13% and the LDs on 11% so it would be hard for the Tories to make many more gains on that except from UKIP, at best they will be aiming to hold the seats they already have
It would be interesting to see a breakdown of who currently holds all the seats that UKIP won in 2015. There have been a lot of UKIP resignations and defections in the last four years.
And some UKIP council by election losses too to both the Tories and Labour
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Workers tend to do better under the Tories. Any particular right for those actually working you'd like to champion?
Remain, that is what most workers voted for
But which form of remain?
Remain as things are now, or remain as in ever closer union?
I demand a #peoplesvote to decide!
I demand Remain with private jets for all. Remain with an EU that isn't shite. Remain with free owls!
Happily I'm in no place to demand anything, and nor is anyone else.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Workers tend to do better under the Tories. Any particular right for those actually working you'd like to champion?
Remain, that is what most workers voted for
But which form of remain?
Remain as things are now, or remain as in ever closer union?
I demand a #peoplesvote to decide!
There is only one sort of Remain, the federal superstate with common tax rates and an EU army. As I’m sure the Leave campaign(s) will make quite clear in a referendum.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Workers tend to do better under the Tories. Any particular right for those actually working you'd like to champion?
Remain, that is what most workers voted for
But which form of remain?
Remain as things are now, or remain as in ever closer union?
I demand a #peoplesvote to decide!
There is only one sort of Remain, the federal superstate with common tax rates and an EU army. As I’m sure the Leave campaign(s) will make quite clear in a referendum.
Indeed.
Which is why if there's a remain/leave with deal/leave with no deal, the remain option should state "do you wish to remain, knowing full well that a vote to remain may lead to a federal superstate, an EU army, your taxes decided in Brussels, without any further mandate from the electorate?"
Remain was never "remain". It was a mandate for ever closer union. If the leave vote is split in between deal/no deal in a second referendum, the remain vote should be similarly split. Ever closer union, vs "remain as is".
Except, of course, we all know there is no such thing as remain as is...
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Anecdote alert: almost every single Leave voter I know (I live in London, so there aren't that many) has, in the past few weeks, told me some variation of "only an exit on WTO terms truly satisfies the referendum result".
I find this intensely frustrating.
It's the crash and burn option. But don't expect them to take ownership of the consequences.
You are lucky to know mostly rational, informed people.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Apparently TM is to make it binding condition of the vote
That is meaningless, parliament cannot bind itself to do, or not do, things in the future. Any act can be repealed by a simple majority at any time. Promises on workers rights, or anything else, made in desperation by May in current circumstances are not worth the paper they are not written on.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Workers tend to do better under the Tories. Any particular right for those actually working you'd like to champion?
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Workers tend to do better under the Tories. Any particular right for those actually working you'd like to champion?
Liverpool just look so tired and desperate, you'd never thing to look at them in the last 5 or so games that they had daylight between them and City not that long ago. The worst thing is City probably do deserve to win the league.
Liverpool giving choking lessons to the Boston Strangler.....
That is meaningless, parliament cannot bind itself to do, or not do, things in the future. Any act can be repealed by a simple majority at any time. Promises on workers rights, or anything else, made in desperation by May in current circumstances are not worth the paper they are not written on.
Indeed, May has often said the guarantees on workers' rights only apply as long as she is Conservative leader so she wants to bind Parliament but not her own Party.
It's easy to imagine a future Conservative leader seeking to dilute or remove workers' rights under the guise of increasing British competitiveness in a global economy.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Apparently TM is to make it binding condition of the vote
That is meaningless, parliament cannot bind itself to do, or not do, things in the future. Any act can be repealed by a simple majority at any time. Promises on workers rights, or anything else, made in desperation by May in current circumstances are not worth the paper they are not written on.
Once out of the EU the HOC is sovereign but the discussions betweennTM and the labour mps seem to be gaining traction
Of course, if you do not want brexit everything is a negative other than remaining
Maybe the Welsh people should be given an opportunity to see if they've changed their minds since 1997 on whether to have an Assembly, given that it was approved by the very small margin of 50.3% to 49.7%.
No thank you
I think the 2011 referendum settled that argument....
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Workers tend to do better under the Tories. Any particular right for those actually working you'd like to champion?
Remain, that is what most workers voted for
But which form of remain?
Remain as things are now, or remain as in ever closer union?
I demand a #peoplesvote to decide!
There is only one sort of Remain, the federal superstate with common tax rates and an EU army. As I’m sure the Leave campaign(s) will make quite clear in a referendum.
Yes, I am sure that they will come out with the same old bollocks, after all it worked last time.
The result on January 15th was 202-432 so we're talking about a sizeable change of opinion though of course 202 would be enough if 231 of the 432 chose to abstain.
As the vote on the 12th now seems to be titled MV2 what would stop MV3? Passing MV2 obviously but let's see it went down by 100 votes, would that stop an MV3?
Liverpool just look so tired and desperate, you'd never thing to look at them in the last 5 or so games that they had daylight between them and City not that long ago. The worst thing is City probably do deserve to win the league.
City seem to get around 80% possession each game, they're also live in 3 competitions (And have won 1). They're the best team in the league, and can only be defeated by the demands of going for it in every cup and league they're in.
The result on January 15th was 202-432 so we're talking about a sizeable change of opinion though of course 202 would be enough if 231 of the 432 chose to abstain.
As the vote on the 12th now seems to be titled MV2 what would stop MV3? Passing MV2 obviously but let's see it went down by 100 votes, would that stop an MV3?
Supposedly there's already a plan for MV3 should MV2 fail, as expected. Unless there's a referendum or revocation then even if we extend the issues are the same and so there would presumably be a MV3 since that at least is a known option.
Remainers salivate at the possibility of splitting the leave vote between deal/no deal which would ultimately lead to us remaining, under AV, as others have pointed out below.
But the remain vote is not a monolith. If there is to be a second referendum, the question isn't just "what does leave look like?"
It should be "what does remain look like?" as well.
Remainers often say that leavers had no idea what leave would look like. Well, right back at you, remain. What happens if we stay?
What does remaining look like? What is there a mandate for? Is there one for ever closer union? The EU army? Tax harmonisation? I'm willing to bet the "people's" vote lot don't want to find out.
If we have a deal/no deal/remain referendum, the only fair choices would be deal/no deal/closer union/in but no closer union.
For the immediate future Remain would look exactly like it did before we triggered A50. What happens in years to come is always open to speculation but I believe w have the opt-outs and vetos to prevent us doing too much that we are opposed to. Do we not have an opt out re closer political union?
Brexit, on the other hand, is less than a month away and we still don't know how it will look then let alone in 5 years time.
The reality of the situation has nothing to do with whether remainers are "salivating" at the split in leavers. There is a split, that is simply a factual statement. Whether we go for No Deal or May's Deal, large numbers of leavers would be opposed.
This has been Leave's Achille's heel from the off. No version of Brexit could be ruled out without leave losing votes. That was fine if all that mattered was flopping over the referendum finishing line. It then meant that as soon as any "real" Brexit options were outlined some leavers wouldn't like it.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Workers tend to do better under the Tories. Any particular right for those actually working you'd like to champion?
Remain, that is what most workers voted for
But which form of remain?
Remain as things are now, or remain as in ever closer union?
I demand a #peoplesvote to decide!
There is only one sort of Remain, the federal superstate with common tax rates and an EU army. As I’m sure the Leave campaign(s) will make quite clear in a referendum.
Yes, I am sure that they will come out with the same old bollocks, after all it worked last time.
I hear Bangladesh wants to join the EU. Which means we get Shamima Begum back.
Just watching Everton v Liverpool I had a flash back to standing on the terraces with my dear Father at the 1966 world cup match, Brazil v Portugal, with the greats, Pele and Eusebio on the same pitch. 53 years ago, over half a century - how time flies and many happy memories
You must have been watching a different game to me.
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Workers tend to do better under the Tories. Any particular right for those actually working you'd like to champion?
Remain, that is what most workers voted for
But which form of remain?
Remain as things are now, or remain as in ever closer union?
I demand a #peoplesvote to decide!
There is only one sort of Remain, the federal superstate with common tax rates and an EU army. As I’m sure the Leave campaign(s) will make quite clear in a referendum.
Yes, I am sure that they will come out with the same old bollocks, after all it worked last time.
Would you support a #peoplesvote if that vote explicitly asked people:
Would they like to retain freedom of movement? Are they in favour of an EU army? Would they support tax raising powers being transferred from Westminster to Brussels?
If Mays deal goes down there will be a lot of pressure for a change in plan . Norway plus with some window dressing on FOM. The People’s Vote need to stop trashing that as most Remainers would gladly take it.
I have just been out to get more wood for the stove.
It is officially windier than a hall where Boris Johnson is speaking to an audience who have only eaten baked beans for three years.
You're lucky. Our stove has refused point blank to light these past two days as there's a storm force 10 blowing straight down the chimney, it seems. If only I'd bought some herrings, the'd be nicely kippered by now.
Thankfully, the underfloor heating still works though.
Remainers salivate at the possibility of splitting the leave vote between deal/no deal which would ultimately lead to us remaining, under AV, as others have pointed out below.
But the remain vote is not a monolith. If there is to be a second referendum, the question isn't just "what does leave look like?"
It should be "what does remain look like?" as well.
Remainers often say that leavers had no idea what leave would look like. Well, right back at you, remain. What happens if we stay?
What does remaining look like? What is there a mandate for? Is there one for ever closer union? The EU army? Tax harmonisation? I'm willing to bet the "people's" vote lot don't want to find out.
If we have a deal/no deal/remain referendum, the only fair choices would be deal/no deal/closer union/in but no closer union.
For the immediate future Remain would look exactly like it did before we triggered A50. What happens in years to come is always open to speculation but I believe w have the opt-outs and vetos to prevent us doing too much that we are opposed to. Do we not have an opt out re closer political union?
Brexit, on the other hand, is less than a month away and we still don't know how it will look then let alone in 5 years time.
The reality of the situation has nothing to do with whether remainers are "salivating" at the split in leavers. There is a split, that is simply a factual statement. Whether we go for No Deal or May's Deal, large numbers of leavers would be opposed.
This has been Leave's Achille's heel from the off. No version of Brexit could be ruled out without leave losing votes. That was fine if all that mattered was flopping over the referendum finishing line. It then meant that as soon as any "real" Brexit options were outlined some leavers wouldn't like it.
Wasn't the 'ever closer union' opt-out part of Cameron's plan that wasn't accepted because we went for a referendum?
It is beyond my comprehension that such hatred is endemic in the labour party and centred on Corbyn and his cabal. How can any labour mp remain in such a toxic culture without being implicit
If a bunch of BNP entryists joined the Conservatives, I don't believe you would leave the party. You would stay and fight, and try to purge the extremists. Why should Labour members and representatives do otherwise?
It surely comes down to how much support there is within the party for any entryists or other awful types. If it starts to become a majority continuing the fight may not be worth it, but clearly the vast majority of Labour members (of those who do think there is something that needs to be fought) think it is still a fight that can be one.
Maybe from me reporting her comments this morning with 60-70 labour mps against a referendum, and subject to an improved offer on workers rights and the environment, a similar number will support the deal
No sentient Labour MP would be bought off by Tory promises on workers rights. Their record speaks for itself, and such promises would be instantly binned after Brexit had gone through.
Workers tend to do better under the Tories. Any particular right for those actually working you'd like to champion?
Remain, that is what most workers voted for
But which form of remain?
Remain as things are now, or remain as in ever closer union?
I demand a #peoplesvote to decide!
There is only one sort of Remain, the federal superstate with common tax rates and an EU army. As I’m sure the Leave campaign(s) will make quite clear in a referendum.
Yes, I am sure that they will come out with the same old bollocks, after all it worked last time.
I hear Bangladesh wants to join the EU. Which means we get Shamima Begum back.
Comments
No multiple choice can be fair.
Suppose three options, No Deal, Deal, Remain. None gets 50%. Then what ? Presumably either Deal or Remain is then the first losing option, probably deal say. The second votes of Deal will go heavily to No Deal presumably so No Deal wins
Remain loses first, then they will all go to deal, so Deal wins
Of course a lot don't give a second choice in AV elections. And in this scenario neither Remainers nor No Dealers should.
IF we were being logical we would say "Remain" has already lost therefore it would be Deal / No Deal. Deal would win as Remainers would presumably come out to vote for it.
OR we say if Deal and No Deal add up to over 50% then we leave on which ever got the more votes. Remain votes and voters would be discounted.
If some of these options seem bizarre they are no more bizarre than the option of Deal or Remain.
Corbyn's marched with banners of Stalin, Lenin, the hammer and sickle. He's presided over, and continues to do so, the rise of anti-Semitism in Labour.
Why are hammer and sickle banners ok? Why's Stalin ok? Towards the end of his reign, Stalin committed an anti-Jewish genocide. That's before we consider all the people he starved, consigned to slave labour, or had killed in earlier genocidal fits of heartless violence.
Labour is not what it was.
Even when it was what it was, it was a very nasty collection of those that would choose to leap and steal above endeavor. Now it's far worse.
Your decision to remain or leave would be determined by factors (the way Labour and other non-Conservative MPs vote) that are beyond the capacity of the PM or Parliamentary Conservative Party to control. Not only that, a few ERGers and a lot of non-Conservatives have a tactical vested interest in exacerbating the current Conservative split (as per those who voted Leave in the referendum because they wanted to kick Cameron).
The second weakness is the constituencies are far too small.
Would you march alongside people carrying Nazi flags if they agreed with you, for example, on the urgent need to improve free speech laws? Would you march with banners of Hitler? And, if Corbyn did, would you criticise or condone that action?
Both in the Conservatives and in politics generally, the side that loses may be more fired up than the side that wins. The whole thing is turbulent and unpredictable.
But for some people, those responsible for 20 million odd deaths and millions in slave labour camps are ok because they're far left, rather than far right.
At what point do you pass from fighting to enabling?
If they were ex bnp and now Con because they had seen the light on their previous views is different to them using the cons to further their unchanged views.
If they started presenting motions at association meetings that blacks and Indians should go home, and they win those motions.
If they started to get selected for council seats.
If the party had changed in such a way as to no longer follow my values, and I was outnumbered I would leave.
https://goo.gl/images/ejCRTq
It is utterly impossible to think a Conservative would allow themselves to be surrounded by swatikas and giving a speech to an event. They would be rightly crucified.
If she by a miracle gets it through, we’ll see a falklands style bump in popularity. Cons will do very well in locals in May.
https://order-order.com/2017/07/25/momentum-activists-threaten-jeer-councillors-antisemitism-motion/
Not much has changed has it
Under FPTP, it would be better to say
Remain, with a mandate for further integration
Remain, but no further integration, any further integration must trigger another referendum
Leave with May's deal
Leave without a deal
The ERG haven't offered anything constructive since the Referendum.
Labour is no longer ambivalent, having twigged that there are well-paid jobs on offer for the bruvvers and sisters. In fact, last I heard, Labour wanted to double the size of the assembly.
Of course, the Welsh people continue as poor as ever, with the Poverty Party in control of the Senedd since inception.
https://twitter.com/matt_bevington/status/1101801526845149184
My point is that the extremists on both sides would be exposed. There are few who want diamond hard brexit now, but there are equally few who want ever closer union with the EU.
Just having "remain" on the ballot paper doesn't reflect Britain's deeply ambivalent relationship with Europe.
There's a majority for treating the EU as a close trading partner. But joining a federal superstate remains a wacky, fringe view. We should split the remain vote to demonstrate that.
Remember too the last time the seats up in May were contested was 2015 when the Tories led Labour by 6%, 35% to 29%, with UKIP on 13% and the LDs on 11% so it would be hard for the Tories to make many more gains on that except from UKIP, at best they will be aiming to hold the seats they already have
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_local_elections
I find this intensely frustrating.
John Rentoul maintains a spreadsheet which has May’s deal winning 320-310, including the support of the DUP and 35 Labour rebels.
(He also assumes 30 ERG hold-outs, of whom 3 abstain.)
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic
Personally I think he is too optimistic about the DUP, and perhaps too pessimistic about the ERG hold-outs. I’d expect DUP not to support the Deal, and only 20 ERG hold-outs, but that wouldn’t change the overall numbers above.
Clearly, if it’s not stating the bleeding obvious, the key factors are going to be how many ERGs hold out, the position of the DUP, and whether anyone persuade Labour’s Northern MPs to back what is now party policy.
But it's an interesting thought experiment.
Remainers salivate at the possibility of splitting the leave vote between deal/no deal which would ultimately lead to us remaining, under AV, as others have pointed out below.
But the remain vote is not a monolith. If there is to be a second referendum, the question isn't just "what does leave look like?"
It should be "what does remain look like?" as well.
Remainers often say that leavers had no idea what leave would look like. Well, right back at you, remain. What happens if we stay?
What does remaining look like? What is there a mandate for? Is there one for ever closer union? The EU army? Tax harmonisation? I'm willing to bet the "people's" vote lot don't want to find out.
If we have a deal/no deal/remain referendum, the only fair choices would be deal/no deal/closer union/in but no closer union.
That being on the basis there are now about 300 MPs for EUref2, 250 for the Deal (Flint and Snell and a few ERGers etc having moved to back the Deal) and 100 for No Deal. Thus if it came down to EUref2 or No Deal if the Deal is defeated a third time EUref2 likely wins as about 50 Deal backing MPs would switch to EUref2 eg Letwin, Rudd, Clarke, Boles, Burt etc. If it comes down to EUref2 or Deal though Deal likely wins on a third vote as most of the 100 No Dealers cave and join the 250 Dealers to ensure Brexit
Remain as things are now, or remain as in ever closer union?
I demand a #peoplesvote to decide!
Advantage Man City in the title race.
Happily I'm in no place to demand anything, and nor is anyone else.
Which is why if there's a remain/leave with deal/leave with no deal, the remain option should state "do you wish to remain, knowing full well that a vote to remain may lead to a federal superstate, an EU army, your taxes decided in Brussels, without any further mandate from the electorate?"
Remain was never "remain". It was a mandate for ever closer union. If the leave vote is split in between deal/no deal in a second referendum, the remain vote should be similarly split. Ever closer union, vs "remain as is".
Except, of course, we all know there is no such thing as remain as is...
Without the DUP the ERG can keep saying no .
You are lucky to know mostly rational, informed people.
Could they be creative enough to put down something that has enough options to reduce them down to single figures .
It's easy to imagine a future Conservative leader seeking to dilute or remove workers' rights under the guise of increasing British competitiveness in a global economy.
Of course, if you do not want brexit everything is a negative other than remaining
It is officially windier than a hall where Boris Johnson is speaking to an audience who have only eaten baked beans for three years.
As the vote on the 12th now seems to be titled MV2 what would stop MV3? Passing MV2 obviously but let's see it went down by 100 votes, would that stop an MV3?
Brexit, on the other hand, is less than a month away and we still don't know how it will look then let alone in 5 years time.
The reality of the situation has nothing to do with whether remainers are "salivating" at the split in leavers. There is a split, that is simply a factual statement. Whether we go for No Deal or May's Deal, large numbers of leavers would be opposed.
This has been Leave's Achille's heel from the off. No version of Brexit could be ruled out without leave losing votes. That was fine if all that mattered was flopping over the referendum finishing line. It then meant that as soon as any "real" Brexit options were outlined some leavers wouldn't like it.
Would they like to retain freedom of movement?
Are they in favour of an EU army?
Would they support tax raising powers being transferred from Westminster to Brussels?
Let's let the people have their say, then...
If Mays deal goes down there will be a lot of pressure for a change in plan . Norway plus with some window dressing on FOM. The People’s Vote need to stop trashing that as most Remainers would gladly take it.
Thankfully, the underfloor heating still works though.