politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those claiming that the “will of the people” equates to no deal should be treated like snake oil salesmen
Any politician trying to assert that what they propose, as we enter the final month of Article 50 process, is the “will of the people” should be treated like a snake oil salesman.
This all depends on what people understand is meant by "access to the single market"?
Does that necessarily equate to membership, or is there a way that we can be outside and have some degree of preferential access?
I suppose you can argue that the offered alternative implies that Freedom of Movement would be the price of this access, which does suggest that it equates more or less to membership of the single market, but it is these sort of textual inconsistencies that have been a feature of the Brexit "debate".
From the header; I cannot find a similar poll from the immediate post-referendum period that looks as the expectations of voters at the time. One thing is clear – the idea of a no deal was not contemplated.
If the first sentence is true, how can the second sentence be true?
If Tom Watson can’t find a way to get Chris Williamson suspended before the end of the day PMQs, then there’s probably a few more MPs resigning from the party today.
In other news....Pakistan airspace is closed to civilian traffic so many flights from the UK to South East Asia will be having longer tracks - looks like this morning's SQ LHR flight was turned back at the border and routed south of Pakistan and over the Gulf.
On topic - there is a small (10%?) minority of Brexit zealots who would be happy with 'no deal' - but nearly half the population (Remain voters) want to maintain close economic links with the EU, and most Leave voters are pretty agnostic on the matter and do want good relations with the EU afterwards - thats why May's deal is probably the least bad show in town.
We are 733 hours from Brexit-hour and the Labour Party needs an internal argument about whether it is more urgent to throw out Tony Blair than Chris Williamson like it needs to have a hole in the head.
I'd be surprised if this doesn't take hold for the next 36 hours.
On topic. Mike is absolutely right. It wasn't just the Comres polling that showed this view either. YouGov in June 2016, just prior to the referendum, also showed 42% of Leave voters prioritising Single Market access over restricting immigration.
Be interesting to see how many of them clapping have spent years door knocking and doing leaflets, rather than just joining for £3 to support Jezza and attack jews.
We are 733 hours from Brexit-hour and the Labour Party needs an internal argument about whether it is more urgent to throw out Tony Blair than Chris Williamson like it needs to have a hole in the head.
I'd be surprised if this doesn't take hold for the next 36 hours.
OTOH a Grand Bargain where you threw out both of them would be unifying and cathartic
We are 733 hours from Brexit-hour and the Labour Party needs an internal argument about whether it is more urgent to throw out Tony Blair than Chris Williamson like it needs to have a hole in the head.
I'd be surprised if this doesn't take hold for the next 36 hours.
Maximum popcorn moment if Blair is kicked out. The headlines would be off the scale. And worldwide.
42% of Leave voters responded by saying staying in the single market should be paramount.
Up to a point, Lord Copper. The actual question was 'Maintaining Access to the Single Market' - which is not quite the same as staying in the single market.
Hasn't there been some polling on 'trade offs' along the lines of:
- 'staying in the single market even if that means keeping free movement'
and
- 'ending free movement even if that means leaving the single market'?
If Tom Watson can’t find a way to get Chris Williamson suspended before the end of the day PMQs, then there’s probably a few more MPs resigning from the party today.
Plus, May will have a nice line of attack to add to the: does he want a 2nd vote or not line.
In other news....Pakistan airspace is closed to civilian traffic so many flights from the UK to South East Asia will be having longer tracks - looks like this morning's SQ LHR flight was turned back at the border and routed south of Pakistan and over the Gulf.
On topic - there is a small (10%?) minority of Brexit zealots who would be happy with 'no deal' - but nearly half the population (Remain voters) want to maintain close economic links with the EU, and most Leave voters are pretty agnostic on the matter and do want good relations with the EU afterwards - thats why May's deal is probably the least bad show in town.
Leaving the EU without a deal is more popular than May's Deal in the opinion polls.
In other news....Pakistan airspace is closed to civilian traffic so many flights from the UK to South East Asia will be having longer tracks - looks like this morning's SQ LHR flight was turned back at the border and routed south of Pakistan and over the Gulf.
On topic - there is a small (10%?) minority of Brexit zealots who would be happy with 'no deal' - but nearly half the population (Remain voters) want to maintain close economic links with the EU, and most Leave voters are pretty agnostic on the matter and do want good relations with the EU afterwards - thats why May's deal is probably the least bad show in town.
Leaving the EU without a deal is more popular than May's Deal in the opinion polls.
The "Single Market" is a set of rules and regulations. Being a member allows a country to be involved in decisions about what those rules are. But every country on earth has access to the Single Market in that they can sell into Europe so long as they meet the said rules. Of course in setting the rules members are in effect setting non-tariff barriers to trade so as to protect domestic production. That may be an advantage to EU producers, but often enough at the cost of consumers within the EU.
Access to and staying in the single market are two different things. A free trade agreement would give access to the single market without staying in it.
If you want to know what proportion of leavers want to stay in the single market ask them that!
The "Single Market" is a set of rules and regulations. Being a member allows a country to be involved in decisions about what those rules are. But every country on earth has access to the Single Market in the sense that they can sell into Europe so long as they meet the said rules. Of course in setting the rules members are in effect setting non-tariff barriers to trade so as to protect domestic production. That may be an advantage to EU producers, but often enough at the cost of consumers within the EU.
This is a typically fallacious Brexit argument. Our internal market will always have regulation. Extending the scope of our internal market to cover the whole EU means a net decrease in non-tariff barriers.
On topic. Mike is absolutely right. It wasn't just the Comres polling that showed this view either. YouGov in June 2016, just prior to the referendum, also showed 42% of Leave voters prioritising Single Market access over restricting immigration.
Listening to Nige Farage on LBC is often the best way to understand the messages that the hard Brexiters will use. Last night had a 16 year old on the phone asking why they assumed the population would vote the same now when he was only 13 at the time and why unlike in Scotland he would not get a vote. Farage refused to engage with him.
Farage expects a delay beyond June and is happy this will happen so he can start his new party with European elections. I predicted this 3 months ago and the next big betting event will be around the European elections with Farage, TIG added to the mix. Should be fun.
42% of Leave voters responded by saying staying in the single market should be paramount.
Up to a point, Lord Copper. The actual question was 'Maintaining Access to the Single Market' - which is not quite the same as staying in the single market.
Hasn't there been some polling on 'trade offs' along the lines of:
- 'staying in the single market even if that means keeping free movement'
and
- 'ending free movement even if that means leaving the single market'?
It's probably not worth thinking too hard about these nuances since most of the voters never understood them in the first place.
On topic. Mike is absolutely right. It wasn't just the Comres polling that showed this view either. YouGov in June 2016, just prior to the referendum, also showed 42% of Leave voters prioritising Single Market access over restricting immigration.
I think that, unfortunately, the political debate since the referendum has markedly changed public opinion away from what you might describe as the Centrist compromise that you favour.
42% of Leave voters responded by saying staying in the single market should be paramount.
Up to a point, Lord Copper. The actual question was 'Maintaining Access to the Single Market' - which is not quite the same as staying in the single market.
Hasn't there been some polling on 'trade offs' along the lines of:
- 'staying in the single market even if that means keeping free movement'
and
- 'ending free movement even if that means leaving the single market'?
Not around the referendum, evidently.
In any event, one thing which 'maintaining access to the single market' really can't mean, however you might try to parse it, is leaving without a deal.
It is scary looking at this stuff how many people claim it is nothing more than a vast conspiracy against Project Messiah.
Who knew how many utter loons the UK has? Really depressing.
At least the 'net means MI5 don't have to do any work finding these shitheads. They just type away - and say "here I am...."
Being given the whole of the world to talk at. They can show just how big they are, having opinions and that. It's like 13 year olds, having their first half dozen pints of snake-bite....
42% of Leave voters responded by saying staying in the single market should be paramount.
Up to a point, Lord Copper. The actual question was 'Maintaining Access to the Single Market' - which is not quite the same as staying in the single market.
Hasn't there been some polling on 'trade offs' along the lines of:
- 'staying in the single market even if that means keeping free movement'
and
- 'ending free movement even if that means leaving the single market'?
It's probably not worth thinking too hard about these nuances since most of the voters never understood them in the first place.
At the moment it's super boring because we are all agreeing that Jezza and Williamson (and...and...) are all antisemitic c**ts and need to be thrown out of the Labour Party.
But where's the fun in that? Where are @TheJezziah and @bjo and our very own @NickPalmer to explain to us why we have got it all wrong?
It's hard to see what Williamson could do for Corbyn to force him out? Perhaps if we could get Williamson to say that Blair and Brown were actually good, solid Labour Party leaders? That should p*ss off Corbyn enough.
In all seriousness, there is a cancer at the heart of Labour - as we see occasionally on here.
Not that the Conservatives should crow - they should be thankful that they have UKIP to take some (though not all) of the right-wing poison.
At the moment it's super boring because we are all agreeing that Jezza and Williamson (and...and...) are all antisemitic c**ts and need to be thrown out of the Labour Party.
But where's the fun in that? Where are @TheJezziah and @bjo and our very own @NickPalmer to explain to us why we have got it all wrong?
At the moment it's super boring because we are all agreeing that Jezza and Williamson (and...and...) are all antisemitic c**ts and need to be thrown out of the Labour Party.
But where's the fun in that? Where are @TheJezziah and @bjo and our very own @NickPalmer to explain to us why we have got it all wrong?
On topic. Mike is absolutely right. It wasn't just the Comres polling that showed this view either. YouGov in June 2016, just prior to the referendum, also showed 42% of Leave voters prioritising Single Market access over restricting immigration.
I think that, unfortunately, the political debate since the referendum has markedly changed public opinion away from what you might describe as the Centrist compromise that you favour.
And also swung in favour of remain to some extent.
At the moment it's super boring because we are all agreeing that Jezza and Williamson (and...and...) are all antisemitic c**ts and need to be thrown out of the Labour Party.
But where's the fun in that? Where are @TheJezziah and @bjo and our very own @NickPalmer to explain to us why we have got it all wrong?
Jeez...
I wouldn't put Nick Palmer on the same level as BJO in his denial, and BJO on the same level as TheJezziah in his (ahem) interesting take on anti-Semitism. Or nastiness ...
We are 733 hours from Brexit-hour and the Labour Party needs an internal argument about whether it is more urgent to throw out Tony Blair than Chris Williamson like it needs to have a hole in the head.
I'd be surprised if this doesn't take hold for the next 36 hours.
OTOH a Grand Bargain where you threw out both of them would be unifying and cathartic
They should totally have a cage match to determine which of them gets to stay. Who wouldn't pay to see a literal struggle for the soul of the party? End the war, and restore Labour's finances in one stroke. I can't see any downside.
At the moment it's super boring because we are all agreeing that Jezza and Williamson (and...and...) are all antisemitic c**ts and need to be thrown out of the Labour Party.
But where's the fun in that? Where are @TheJezziah and @bjo and our very own @NickPalmer to explain to us why we have got it all wrong?
Jeez...
I wouldn't put Nick Palmer on the same level as BJO in his denial, and BJO on the same level as TheJezziah in his (ahem) interesting take on anti-Semitism. Or nastiness ...
I will of course let them speak for themselves but Nick portrays Jezza as a nice, honest, homely kind of guy with nary a bad word for anyone. I would be interested in his take on this all.
They will claim that you have always had to pay for DVD box sets etc. But what it does is really highlight that the BBC funding model is broken for the modern age. It is unenforceable and is incompatible with the modern streaming world.
The "Single Market" is a set of rules and regulations. Being a member allows a country to be involved in decisions about what those rules are. But every country on earth has access to the Single Market in the sense that they can sell into Europe so long as they meet the said rules. Of course in setting the rules members are in effect setting non-tariff barriers to trade so as to protect domestic production. That may be an advantage to EU producers, but often enough at the cost of consumers within the EU.
This is a typically fallacious Brexit argument. Our internal market will always have regulation. Extending the scope of our internal market to cover the whole EU means a net decrease in non-tariff barriers.
No. It's like trade creation and trade diversion in the case of tariffs. Expanding the scope of the Single Market to encompass more countries means that the non-tariff barriers facing non-members have become more extensive. Whether there's a net increase or decrease has to factor that in too.
They will claim that you have always had to pay for DVD box sets etc. But what it does is really highlight that the BBC funding model is broken for the modern age. It is unenforceable and is incompatible with the modern streaming world.
Suspect they will start putting content that is already paid for by the licence fee (they cite Luther and Line Of Duty in the article for example) on BritBox first thus getting two lots of revenue for the same content.
Then like you say there's the DVD sales and the money they get from selling the rights to other countries plus various spin-off and merchandise profits...
At the moment it's super boring because we are all agreeing that Jezza and Williamson (and...and...) are all antisemitic c**ts and need to be thrown out of the Labour Party.
But where's the fun in that? Where are @TheJezziah and @bjo and our very own @NickPalmer to explain to us why we have got it all wrong?
They will claim that you have always had to pay for DVD box sets etc. But what it does is really highlight that the BBC funding model is broken for the modern age. It is unenforceable and is incompatible with the modern streaming world.
Suspect they will start putting content that is already paid for by the licence fee (they cite Luther and Line Of Duty in the article for example) on BritBox first thus getting two lots of revenue for the same content.
Then like you say there's the DVD sales and the money they get from selling the rights to other countries plus various spin-off and merchandise profits...
#kerching #kerching #kerching
Then they could afford to build a permanent studio on College Green!
In F1 news, Vettel's had a big off during testing. He's been taken to the medical facility, but Ferrari say he's fine. Looks like a mechanical failure.
At the moment it's super boring because we are all agreeing that Jezza and Williamson (and...and...) are all antisemitic c**ts and need to be thrown out of the Labour Party.
But where's the fun in that? Where are @TheJezziah and @bjo and our very own @NickPalmer to explain to us why we have got it all wrong?
At the moment it's super boring because we are all agreeing that Jezza and Williamson (and...and...) are all antisemitic c**ts and need to be thrown out of the Labour Party.
But where's the fun in that? Where are @TheJezziah and @bjo and our very own @NickPalmer to explain to us why we have got it all wrong?
I’d pay a fiver a month - if they’d let me. Can’t see anyone in the UK being too interested though.
Streaming market fragmentation, as is already happening in the US, is driving piracy rates higher again.
They aren't learning.....the reason Spotify has worked in terms of much reducing music piracy, is pretty much 99% of the music content (and increasingly podcasts) are located in one place, so for £5-10 a month you do nothing more than one click on a single app for all your audio entertainment.
All parties present the other side as a threat to something or other. But watching how the Corbynist left behave it feels like so many red flags. How dissent is dealt with, how the truth is whatever the speaker wants it to be and can be turned 180degrees without a blink or flicker, how the very worst bad behaviour can be justified and covered over if the person who does it shares the necessary values.
I thing the snake oil salesmen are peddling an opinion poll done two-and-a-half years ago!
Mike is adducing an opinion poll done two-and-a-half years ago, expressly as evidence of what people thought two-and-a-half years ago. Could you clarify your point, please?
In F1 news, Vettel's had a big off during testing. He's been taken to the medical facility, but Ferrari say he's fine. Looks like a mechanical failure.
BBC saying he’s back in the garage now, so just a precautionary checkup with the doc. Car went straight on at Turn 3
Amazed at how many Corbynista scouse grandparents there are on Twitter slagging off and 'but Israel'-ing anyone who dares to criticise Williamson. Where do they all come from?
They will claim that you have always had to pay for DVD box sets etc. But what it does is really highlight that the BBC funding model is broken for the modern age. It is unenforceable and is incompatible with the modern streaming world.
Suspect they will start putting content that is already paid for by the licence fee (they cite Luther and Line Of Duty in the article for example) on BritBox first thus getting two lots of revenue for the same content.
Then like you say there's the DVD sales and the money they get from selling the rights to other countries plus various spin-off and merchandise profits...
#kerching #kerching #kerching
They've maybe overestimated the current brand value of the prefix Brit- in the international market, unless they're hoping to flog a lot of comedy.
Amazed at how many Corbynista scouse grandparents there are on Twitter slagging off and 'but Israel'-ing anyone who dares to criticise Williamson. Where do they all come from?
The Twitter API via some Python code and St. Petersburg.
Amazed at how many Corbynista scouse grandparents there are on Twitter slagging off and 'but Israel'-ing anyone who dares to criticise Williamson. Where do they all come from?
Whilst I've been utterly failing to get anything done this morning, this song came up on my playlist, and I would like to dedicate it to Chris Williamson:
Amazed at how many Corbynista scouse grandparents there are on Twitter slagging off and 'but Israel'-ing anyone who dares to criticise Williamson. Where do they all come from?
The Twitter API via some Python code and St. Petersburg.
Yes, there appears to be far more of them than the entire population of Liverpool.
I’d pay a fiver a month - if they’d let me. Can’t see anyone in the UK being too interested though.
Streaming market fragmentation, as is already happening in the US, is driving piracy rates higher again.
They aren't learning.....the reason Spotify has worked in terms of much reducing music piracy, is pretty much 99% of the music content (and increasingly podcasts) are located in one place, so for £5-10 a month you do nothing more than one click on a single app for all your audio entertainment.
Indeed. The audio streaming market works well because all the content is there, whether you subscribe to Spotify, Tidal, Apple Music, Android Music or Amazon Music.
The video streaming market (in the US) now has Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, HBO and soon Disney, all touting exclusive content. People aren’t going to go back to paying $60 a month for TV, that was the reason they cut the cable cord in the first place!
@SayeedaWarsi Feb 25 More Sayeeda Warsi Retweeted Sayeeda Warsi Conservative voters in @hopenothate report - State of Hate @BrandonLewis - 42% believe Robinson highlights issues ignored by media - 47% falsely believe there are no-go areas where sharia law dominates & non-Muslims can't enter - 49% see Islam as a threat 2British way of life
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Does that necessarily equate to membership, or is there a way that we can be outside and have some degree of preferential access?
I suppose you can argue that the offered alternative implies that Freedom of Movement would be the price of this access, which does suggest that it equates more or less to membership of the single market, but it is these sort of textual inconsistencies that have been a feature of the Brexit "debate".
https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/1100391400217153536
If the first sentence is true, how can the second sentence be true?
Williamson - either feck off and join the SWP or expect to be kicked out of the Labour Party.
On topic - there is a small (10%?) minority of Brexit zealots who would be happy with 'no deal' - but nearly half the population (Remain voters) want to maintain close economic links with the EU, and most Leave voters are pretty agnostic on the matter and do want good relations with the EU afterwards - thats why May's deal is probably the least bad show in town.
I'd be surprised if this doesn't take hold for the next 36 hours.
Up to a point, Lord Copper. The actual question was 'Maintaining Access to the Single Market' - which is not quite the same as staying in the single market.
Hasn't there been some polling on 'trade offs' along the lines of:
- 'staying in the single market even if that means keeping free movement'
and
- 'ending free movement even if that means leaving the single market'?
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-there-was-a-referendum-tomorrow-with-the-option-of-remaining-in-the-eu-accepting-the-governments-brexit-agreement-or-leaving-the-eu-without-a-deal-which-would-you-support-2-2/
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1100689601386168321
The ERG really have been very stupid.
Being a member allows a country to be involved in decisions about what those rules are. But every country on earth has access to the Single Market in that they can sell into Europe so long as they meet the said rules.
Of course in setting the rules members are in effect setting non-tariff barriers to trade so as to protect domestic production. That may be an advantage to EU producers, but often enough at the cost of consumers within the EU.
If you want to know what proportion of leavers want to stay in the single market ask them that!
Farage expects a delay beyond June and is happy this will happen so he can start his new party with European elections. I predicted this 3 months ago and the next big betting event will be around the European elections with Farage, TIG added to the mix. Should be fun.
Kaboom!!!!!
Williamson needs to be suspended, but this is all too late in the day.
Corbyn needs to resign.
Will he act?
In any event, one thing which 'maintaining access to the single market' really can't mean, however you might try to parse it, is leaving without a deal.
Popcorn on order.
Being given the whole of the world to talk at. They can show just how big they are, having opinions and that. It's like 13 year olds, having their first half dozen pints of snake-bite....
https://twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1100165462317563905?s=21
At the moment it's super boring because we are all agreeing that Jezza and Williamson (and...and...) are all antisemitic c**ts and need to be thrown out of the Labour Party.
But where's the fun in that? Where are @TheJezziah and @bjo and our very own @NickPalmer to explain to us why we have got it all wrong?
Jeez...
Surely in the last TWO YEARS Corbyn should have sat Williamson down and told him, old friend, this would be a good time to shut up?
In all seriousness, there is a cancer at the heart of Labour - as we see occasionally on here.
Not that the Conservatives should crow - they should be thankful that they have UKIP to take some (though not all) of the right-wing poison.
https://twitter.com/Emmabarnett/status/1100677904353116161
wouldn't be surprised though if she demanded the whip withdrawn from him
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47383559
Captain Salad has neither the intelligence nor the common sense to do what is needed.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1100705999764275200
Then like you say there's the DVD sales and the money they get from selling the rights to other countries plus various spin-off and merchandise profits...
#kerching #kerching #kerching
Streaming market fragmentation, as is already happening in the US, is driving piracy rates higher again.
right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8VZX4sHn-4
(I'm unsure quite what lefty Ms Allen would think of this...)
The video streaming market (in the US) now has Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, HBO and soon Disney, all touting exclusive content. People aren’t going to go back to paying $60 a month for TV, that was the reason they cut the cable cord in the first place!
Verified account
@SayeedaWarsi
Feb 25
More Sayeeda Warsi Retweeted Sayeeda Warsi
Conservative voters in @hopenothate report - State of Hate @BrandonLewis
- 42% believe Robinson highlights issues ignored by media
- 47% falsely believe there are no-go areas where sharia law dominates & non-Muslims can't enter
- 49% see Islam as a threat 2British way of life