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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Opinium poll has LAB moving from level-pegging to 8% behin

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,827
    edited February 2019

    Has the TIG managed to take many members/footsoldiers with it? Without any base to speak of, they will die. Is there any evidence of cllrs, MEPs, MSPs, AMs actually shifting, is it just a bit more of the westminster bubble?

    I don't see how any can shift with them until/if they become an actual party. Local authorities have many and varied independents and it's a damn site easier for them to win as such than MPs so a few will already have quit their parties with the catalyst of the tiggers perhaps.

    But en masse and in other areas? The only thing the tiggers agree on in policy terms is stopping brexit and not backing Jeremy Corbyn as PM. Both are wholly the business of Parliament so why would many jump to the tiggers on that alone, even if they agree? Especially as on Brexit labour may or may not do precisely as the tiggers want in the coming weeks?

    Unless the tiggers sustain momentum over the coming weeks with more defections I really struggle to see them coalescing into an actual movement. There's currently no leader, no shared ideology, they cannot even get all independents on board, how to build on that without the force of persistent defections lending a weight of inevitability to it? Especially as the 'you'll ensure the Tories will win' is a powerful counter.

    There seem to be nothing more than vague rumours that anyone else is coming to them now, quite the contrast to the excitement last week where specific people were strongly linked to it before jumping. Any potential others seen to be waiting on brexit developments, and surely even May and Corbyn are not so stupid as to push dozens off their MPs to quit? Surely?

    And until that happens no sense abandoning the current structures for anyone else outside of Westminster. I fear we've reached the high mark of the bounce of the tiggers. I hope they can do more than perhaps gain a couple more disaffected MPs, but I'm pessimistic.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,827

    Jonathan said:
    How are you supposed to play Wom when the bat is that cute?
    That's only half of the too-cute-for-the-sport problem, how is any decent human being supposed to hit the Womballs?
    Officially the most surreal diversion ever on PB.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,827
    In more important news.

    The naked women adorning Britain's churches.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-45116614
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,303
    edited February 2019

    Has the TIG managed to take many members/footsoldiers with it? Without any base to speak of, they will die. Is there any evidence of cllrs, MEPs, MSPs, AMs actually shifting, is it just a bit more of the westminster bubble?

    I posted last week's list of councillor defections on Friday, There were five to Ind (four Labour, one Tory), at least two of which made TIG type comments. But as kle says, most cllrs will want some sort of organisation to join, so it'll take some weeks to work through. Also the Brexit outcome (or developments) could fuel or stem the tide.

    Here's another one;

    https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-news/derby-labour-councillor-quits-party-2572045.amp?__twitter_impression=true

    There is evidence all over Twitter of members resigning, but of course not the most reliable source.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    NEW THREAD
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,039
    viewcode said:
    He is wrong. Sanders will knock out Warren in New Hampshire and get the left liberal vote behind him while the Clinton coalition will divide between moderates for Biden and African Americans for Harris. Remember too Reagan was runner up for the GOP nomination in 1976 but won it in 1980
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,932

    notme2 said:

    If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

    It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

    Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.


    Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.
    Its a bit too touristy and expensive for my liking buts its always a good place to visit and has loads of great pubs.

    What was noticeable to me was how many more restaurants there seemed to be and York has never been short of them.

    For all the talk of austerity there are many, many people with lots and lots of spare money.
    One thing York does very well is having events staggered throughout the year to draw in the tourists. This weekend is the middle of the Jorvik Festival which draws in tens of thousands of extra people from all of the country as well as a lot from Scandinavia.


    York is probably my favourite city weekend destination.
    In three weeks time it will be invaded by thousands of Lib Dems - it's their spring conference at the Barbican.
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