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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Opinium poll has LAB moving from level-pegging to 8% behin

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  • notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

    It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

    Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.


    Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.
    Its a bit too touristy and expensive for my liking buts its always a good place to visit and has loads of great pubs.

    What was noticeable to me was how many more restaurants there seemed to be and York has never been short of them.

    For all the talk of austerity there are many, many people with lots and lots of spare money.
    Austerity was largely a marketing tool with the exception of local authorities and police.

    Local authorities means everything from bin collections, through schools to buses. That’s a lot. The Tories have been immensely fortunate in Labour’s choice of leaders.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory vote only down 2% if Corbyn is replaced as Labour leader but TIG down 4% if Corbyn is replaced.

    For the moment TIG is offering a home for centre left Remainers disaffected with Corbyn
    Suggests that the Tory lead rests entirely on Corbyn, which is credible.
    But not the Tory share, which is surprising.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    algarkirk said:


    And if you were a Slovenian you may understandably think that the EU is a marked improvement on most of what has gone before, and stick to it like glue.

    Possibly.

    But, another reading is that Scotland or Catalonia have so far failed where Slovenia succeeded because it was better to be part of the Austrian-Hungarian empire or Yugoslavia rather than part of the British Empire or Spain.
    I don't follow - if it was worse to be part of the latter wouldn't it have been easier to gather up the support in the identity separate from them?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    notme2 said:

    Two 8 point leads... looking like a trend.

    Who doesn't love a good bit of splitting? :D
  • notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

    It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

    Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.


    Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.
    Its a bit too touristy and expensive for my liking buts its always a good place to visit and has loads of great pubs.

    What was noticeable to me was how many more restaurants there seemed to be and York has never been short of them.

    For all the talk of austerity there are many, many people with lots and lots of spare money.
    Austerity was largely a marketing tool with the exception of local authorities and police.

    Local authorities means everything from bin collections, through schools to buses. That’s a lot. The Tories have been immensely fortunate in Labour’s choice of leaders.

    Fortunately, it's paid off.

    Public finances have been restored to sanity now and moderate reinvestment in public services can recommence.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    kle4 said:

    Anything with Tig in it can be safely put to one side I'd expect, until they are an actual party, which I am doubtful they will become.

    I think that's right. (and at which point we would probably need to remove the lds too, as there would be a pact)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory vote only down 2% if Corbyn is replaced as Labour leader but TIG down 4% if Corbyn is replaced.

    For the moment TIG is offering a home for centre left Remainers disaffected with Corbyn
    Suggests that the Tory lead rests entirely on Corbyn, which is credible.
    But not the Tory share, which is surprising.
    The Tory share seems very resilient. Difficult to push very high into the 40s but even harde to push into the mid to low 30s. Of course Tony Blair achieved it. :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    I think some of the bounce will be because of revoking the passport. It has been one of the most popular moves the government has made in a long time.
  • A poll which contains not one hypothetical variable but two!

    (Arguably 3 if you include the "if there was a general election tomorrow...!)


    My fav
  • Big news is that Burnley are first on Match of the Day tonight

    Early night for me......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    A poll which contains not one hypothetical variable but two!

    (Arguably 3 if you include the "if there was a general election tomorrow...!)


    My fav
    I know, right, if there was a party called the Lib Dems I think we'd have heard about them before now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory vote only down 2% if Corbyn is replaced as Labour leader but TIG down 4% if Corbyn is replaced.

    For the moment TIG is offering a home for centre left Remainers disaffected with Corbyn
    Suggests that the Tory lead rests entirely on Corbyn, which is credible.
    But not the Tory share, which is surprising.
    It's 6-7% down on GE17, assuming it's a GB poll. And there is margin of error.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    edited February 2019
    MaxPB said:

    I think some of the bounce will be because of revoking the passport. It has been one of the most popular moves the government has made in a long time.

    Do you really think people change their voting intention because of the Home Secretary's view on a young woman in a refugee camp in Syria or wherever?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2019
    notme2 said:

    Two 8 point leads... looking like a trend.

    The Three Amigos leave the Tories and their support goes up. What does that tell us?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:

    notme2 said:

    Two 8 point leads... looking like a trend.

    The three Amigos leave the Tories and their support goes up. What does that tell us?
    Multi party Coalitions aren’t popular.
  • No wonder little Owen's arse was making buttons through the week, this polling looks like it might set a few hares running.

    Front page Observer lead tomorrow references 'senior parliamentarian' ready to walk.

    That suggests it could be someone from the HoL.
    If it is Charlie Falconer, I'll need to take the day off work to read the thread on here.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    It's all about the evil media with the lefties - apparently JC is annoyed he got asked about racism in the party by the Sky reporter in a week 8 MPs dumped him ...over race in the party.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Bloody hell - some of the takes on here are hotter than the sun
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    No wonder little Owen's arse was making buttons through the week, this polling looks like it might set a few hares running.

    Front page Observer lead tomorrow references 'senior parliamentarian' ready to walk.

    That suggests it could be someone from the HoL.
    If it is Charlie Falconer, I'll need to take the day off work to read the thread on here.
    Lol.
  • notme2 said:

    If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

    It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

    Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.


    Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.
    Its a bit too touristy and expensive for my liking buts its always a good place to visit and has loads of great pubs.

    What was noticeable to me was how many more restaurants there seemed to be and York has never been short of them.

    For all the talk of austerity there are many, many people with lots and lots of spare money.
    Perhaps showing the early effects of a post-Brexit Britain, with more folk deciding to stay at home. instead of spending over-valued Euros. Anyone been to Ireland recently? On any reasonable comparison, everything seems about 30% over-priced compared with the U.K.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,725

    MaxPB said:

    I think some of the bounce will be because of revoking the passport. It has been one of the most popular moves the government has made in a long time.

    Do you really think people change their voting intention because of the Home Secretary's view on a young woman in a refugee camp in Syria or wherever?
    It's an odd one. I was out and about this week, and I heard it mentioned a fair few times, from a far few different 'sorts' of people (*). Most approved of Javid's actions, but even those who thought it was a bad idea had very little sympathy for her personally - I haven't been on here enough to see if that's reflected amongst our august assembly.

    That makes me think that if Javid loses in court - and I'm personally rather concerned about what he did - there won't be much downside for him.

    Whether you approve of it or not, it was a popular move.

    (*) The sort of salt-of-the-earth workmen and women you get at 06.30 breakfasts at a northern Holiday Express ...
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    felix said:

    TGOHF said:
    Yet she's spoken of as leadership material. That is a seriously deranged comment.

    She’s saying it because she wants to be leader. She’ll need Cult votes to succeed.

    Exactly. She's positioning herself cleverly, to harvest the lunatic fringe (i.e. most Labour members) and become the leader after Jezbollah. Then she will tack right to win an election.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    Hope springs eternal....never mind the Scottish Labour surge will surely pull JC over the line.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    MaxPB said:

    I think some of the bounce will be because of revoking the passport. It has been one of the most popular moves the government has made in a long time.

    I think you confuse popular with populist.

    Its a disasterous policy for Britain and this government. People may leave the party next week citing it.

    It’s a disaster on the grounds of security, on keeping Britons safe and our communities secure.

    It’s a policy oblivious to where the thousands of ISIS jihadi are; they are at the other end of a rowing boat.

    We are in a rowing boat out upon lake of space and time. From our lofty dry end of the boat, The other end of the rowing boat, where the water comes in and there’s a bit of chaos is nothing to do with us, is it?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    dots said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think some of the bounce will be because of revoking the passport. It has been one of the most popular moves the government has made in a long time.

    I think you confuse popular with populist.

    Its a disasterous policy for Britain and this government. People may leave the party next week citing it.

    It’s a disaster on the grounds of security, on keeping Britons safe and our communities secure.

    It’s a policy oblivious to where the thousands of ISIS jihadi are; they are at the other end of a rowing boat.

    We are in a rowing boat out upon lake of space and time. From our lofty dry end of the boat, The other end of the rowing boat, where the water comes in and there’s a bit of chaos is nothing to do with us, is it?
    Most people, rightly or wrongly, will be perplexed as to why bringing these allegedly dangerous people back to the UK is a good idea.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    edited February 2019
    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    They ain’t going to be coming out for a council election in ten weeks time..
  • justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    Yep, look at all the other parties it could go to.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    DougSeal said:

    Bloody hell - some of the takes on here are hotter than the sun

    It's the only way to experience politics. Immediately and rashly.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    edited February 2019
    felix said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory vote only down 2% if Corbyn is replaced as Labour leader but TIG down 4% if Corbyn is replaced.

    For the moment TIG is offering a home for centre left Remainers disaffected with Corbyn
    Suggests that the Tory lead rests entirely on Corbyn, which is credible.
    But not the Tory share, which is surprising.
    The Tory share seems very resilient. Difficult to push very high into the 40s but even harde to push into the mid to low 30s. Of course Tony Blair achieved it. :)

    Ed Miliband achieved it !
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    That seemed to be the case with at least one of the polls we had previously, with don't knows growing.

    A good source of Labour votes last time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Sigh, I was hoping for some juicy defections for the Sunday papers.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    felix said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    It's all about the evil media with the lefties - apparently JC is annoyed he got asked about racism in the party by the Sky reporter in a week 8 MPs dumped him ...over race in the party.
    The RW press aren't going to give a Labour leader an easy ride unless she/he is quite centrist, if you feel that is a crazy or untrue statement then fair enough I don't think it is too outlandish.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    notme2 said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    They ain’t going to be coming out for a council election in ten weeks time..
    Unless it happened to coincide with a General Election!
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    dots said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think some of the bounce will be because of revoking the passport. It has been one of the most popular moves the government has made in a long time.

    I think you confuse popular with populist.

    Its a disasterous policy for Britain and this government. People may leave the party next week citing it.

    It’s a disaster on the grounds of security, on keeping Britons safe and our communities secure.

    It’s a policy oblivious to where the thousands of ISIS jihadi are; they are at the other end of a rowing boat.

    We are in a rowing boat out upon lake of space and time. From our lofty dry end of the boat, The other end of the rowing boat, where the water comes in and there’s a bit of chaos is nothing to do with us, is it?
    Go out on your local social housing estate and say that ISIS followers are going to be relocated there whilst they undergo re-education.

    What arguments are you going to make to appease the locals?

    I support bring back these people that are british citizens as long as they are not dumped in social deprived areas. Lets re house them in all those posh, middle class areas.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    notme2 said:

    felix said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory vote only down 2% if Corbyn is replaced as Labour leader but TIG down 4% if Corbyn is replaced.

    For the moment TIG is offering a home for centre left Remainers disaffected with Corbyn
    Suggests that the Tory lead rests entirely on Corbyn, which is credible.
    But not the Tory share, which is surprising.
    The Tory share seems very resilient. Difficult to push very high into the 40s but even harde to push into the mid to low 30s. Of course Tony Blair achieved it. :)

    Ed Miliband achieved it !
    Not much good when you stil come second. Of course JC and the cult think coming second is a win.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    It's all about the evil media with the lefties - apparently JC is annoyed he got asked about racism in the party by the Sky reporter in a week 8 MPs dumped him ...over race in the party.
    The RW press aren't going to give a Labour leader an easy ride unless she/he is quite centrist, if you feel that is a crazy or untrue statement then fair enough I don't think it is too outlandish.
    Of course you don't.
  • AnGofAnGof Posts: 28
    dots said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think some of the bounce will be because of revoking the passport. It has been one of the most popular moves the government has made in a long time.

    I think you confuse popular with populist.

    Its a disasterous policy for Britain and this government. People may leave the party next week citing it.

    It’s a disaster on the grounds of security, on keeping Britons safe and our communities secure.

    It’s a policy oblivious to where the thousands of ISIS jihadi are; they are at the other end of a rowing boat.

    We are in a rowing boat out upon lake of space and time. From our lofty dry end of the boat, The other end of the rowing boat, where the water comes in and there’s a bit of chaos is nothing to do with us, is it?
    I'm sorry there are people going to change their party over this woman and how the home secretary reacted?

    Now while I won't agree with the action personally most people think the woman is scum and got what she deserved and certainly I wouldn't see many if any leaving the tories in disgust
  • notme2 said:

    If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

    It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

    Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.


    Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.
    Its a bit too touristy and expensive for my liking buts its always a good place to visit and has loads of great pubs.

    What was noticeable to me was how many more restaurants there seemed to be and York has never been short of them.

    For all the talk of austerity there are many, many people with lots and lots of spare money.
    Perhaps showing the early effects of a post-Brexit Britain, with more folk deciding to stay at home. instead of spending over-valued Euros. Anyone been to Ireland recently? On any reasonable comparison, everything seems about 30% over-priced compared with the U.K.
    I doubt York gets many UK tourists beyond those within an hour's drive or train ride away.

    But there's always plenty of Americans, East Asians and indeed other Europeans there.

    I'm not sure that British people always appreciate the tourist attractions their own country has.
  • AndyJS said:

    dots said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think some of the bounce will be because of revoking the passport. It has been one of the most popular moves the government has made in a long time.

    I think you confuse popular with populist.

    Its a disasterous policy for Britain and this government. People may leave the party next week citing it.

    It’s a disaster on the grounds of security, on keeping Britons safe and our communities secure.

    It’s a policy oblivious to where the thousands of ISIS jihadi are; they are at the other end of a rowing boat.

    We are in a rowing boat out upon lake of space and time. From our lofty dry end of the boat, The other end of the rowing boat, where the water comes in and there’s a bit of chaos is nothing to do with us, is it?
    Most people, rightly or wrongly, will be perplexed as to why bringing these allegedly dangerous people back to the UK is a good idea.
    A Home Secretary who allows such people to return will be in a difficult position if they subsequently committed a terrorist act in this country.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory vote only down 2% if Corbyn is replaced as Labour leader but TIG down 4% if Corbyn is replaced.

    For the moment TIG is offering a home for centre left Remainers disaffected with Corbyn
    Suggests that the Tory lead rests entirely on Corbyn, which is credible.
    But not the Tory share, which is surprising.
    It's 6-7% down on GE17, assuming it's a GB poll. And there is margin of error.
    Weren't we comparing the two polls?
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited February 2019
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Is this why TIG have not formed a party? As long as polls like this they can make the argument of get rid of Corbyn and we will rejoin and then Labour have a chance of winning again. The withdrawal method applied to politics.

    I think that is right. The Labour TIGgers are hoping to rejoin. That is why there is no TIG party.

    The 3 Tory TIGgers have been suckered.
    Allen, at least, seems to be very disgusted with the Tories on many things, I doubt she would be concerned if Tig falls apart and she cannot go back. The other two I do not know, but frankly most of the splitters seem keen to stress they are still Labour/Tory at heart it is the others who have changed, so I don't think they are that committed necessarily to a new project, if it achieves its aim of influencing the others to prevent Brexit.
    I wonder how they will react if Corbyn is finally, grudgingly persuaded to back a 2nd vote.

    I don't expect this to happen, he is too old and stubborn, but it is now possible.
    A weeks a long time in politics Sean Thomas, care to re write this one?

    “As I see it there are four main factions in the Commons:

    Tory ERG-ers: lunatic hooligans who seem hellbent on an impossible Brexit to the extent of sabotaging Brexit
    Tory Remainers and loyalists: pathetic bunch of bed-wetters who are frightened of Jacob Rees Mogg and also incapable of organising a handjob in Bangkok
    Labour Remainers: helpless, flailing cowards, who elected a leader they all loathe
    Labour Corbynites: sinister Trots, eerie anti-Semites, and active traitors

    Apart from them we have smaller factions: e.g. insane Protestant Ulster ranters, Catholic UIster revolutionaries who refuse to take their seats, a significant number of Scots and Welsh who want to destroy the country, and the Lib Dems, who can't remember why they exist.“
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Corbyn seems to be arguing that all the problems stem from the creation of Israel...

    https://twitter.com/nudderingnudnik/status/748521889853804544?s=21
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2019

    notme2 said:

    If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

    It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

    Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.


    Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.
    Its a bit too touristy and expensive for my liking buts its always a good place to visit and has loads of great pubs.

    What was noticeable to me was how many more restaurants there seemed to be and York has never been short of them.

    For all the talk of austerity there are many, many people with lots and lots of spare money.
    Perhaps showing the early effects of a post-Brexit Britain, with more folk deciding to stay at home. instead of spending over-valued Euros. Anyone been to Ireland recently? On any reasonable comparison, everything seems about 30% over-priced compared with the U.K.
    I doubt York gets many UK tourists beyond those within an hour's drive or train ride away.

    But there's always plenty of Americans, East Asians and indeed other Europeans there.

    I'm not sure that British people always appreciate the tourist attractions their own country has.
    There's a lot of snobbery around where people think anywhere more than an hour's drive away from wherever they happen to live isn't worth visiting. Also, in my experience the places where tourists don't go are usually more interesting than the places they do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Can I confess to being surprised how many people showed up for the Tommy Robinson protest? For once, it far exceeded the counter protesters, which often seems the case in these situations.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-47335414
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    kle4 said:

    Can I confess to being surprised how many people showed up for the Tommy Robinson protest? For once, it far exceeded the counter protesters, which often seems the case in these situations.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-47335414

    UKIP seems to pretty much be the Tommy Robinson party now, their protests related to Tommy tend to be far more popular than anything they try to do regarding Brexit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Not sure Tory HQ will be happy if polling "without Corbyn as leader" becomes a regular thing. People might begin to twig the bleeding obvious.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    dots said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think some of the bounce will be because of revoking the passport. It has been one of the most popular moves the government has made in a long time.

    I think you confuse popular with populist.

    Its a disasterous policy for Britain and this government. People may leave the party next week citing it.

    It’s a disaster on the grounds of security, on keeping Britons safe and our communities secure.

    It’s a policy oblivious to where the thousands of ISIS jihadi are; they are at the other end of a rowing boat.

    We are in a rowing boat out upon lake of space and time. From our lofty dry end of the boat, The other end of the rowing boat, where the water comes in and there’s a bit of chaos is nothing to do with us, is it?
    What are you banging on about. That's literally a whole load of words to say absolutely nothing.
  • AndyJS said:

    notme2 said:

    If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

    It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

    Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.


    Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.
    It's a bit smug for my liking. I prefer down to earth places like Manchester, Birmingham, Nottingham, Newcastle, etc.
    Take the road to Hull!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,198
    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    AndyJS said:

    notme2 said:

    Two 8 point leads... looking like a trend.

    The Three Amigos leave the Tories and their support goes up. What does that tell us?
    As I said at the time, it tells you that people like me - in Sarah Wollaston's constitunecy of Totnes - have gone from 0/10 to voting Tory to maybe 6/10. Polling bounce, as I said on the day....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,198
    dixiedean said:

    Not sure Tory HQ will be happy if polling "without Corbyn as leader" becomes a regular thing. People might begin to twig the bleeding obvious.

    The Cult won't
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Cripes, it was like England had never even heard of the concept of pick and go rugby. Suprised them about as much as when Italy decided to not contest rucks.

    Will Eddie have a winge and get the laws changed again?
  • Alistair said:

    Cripes, it was like England had never even heard of the concept of pick and go rugby. Suprised them about as much as when Italy decided to not contest rucks.

    Will Eddie have a winge and get the laws changed again?

    There was a lot of aimless kicking today.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    AndyJS said:

    notme2 said:

    Two 8 point leads... looking like a trend.

    The Three Amigos leave the Tories and their support goes up. What does that tell us?
    As I said at the time, it tells you that people like me - in Sarah Wollaston's constitunecy of Totnes - have gone from 0/10 to voting Tory to maybe 6/10. Polling bounce, as I said on the day....
    If Con can get rid of a few more Remoaners next week they might hit 45%? :D
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    A
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    notme2 said:

    Two 8 point leads... looking like a trend.

    The Three Amigos leave the Tories and their support goes up. What does that tell us?
    As I said at the time, it tells you that people like me - in Sarah Wollaston's constitunecy of Totnes - have gone from 0/10 to voting Tory to maybe 6/10. Polling bounce, as I said on the day....
    If Con can get rid of a few more Remoaners next week they might hit 45%? :D
    “Can do attitude” popular shock.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
  • justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,198
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    I would not be so sure, especially if they do a pact with the LDs.

    Labour gets to 25 to 35% on a pure anti austerity, left-wing message. Corbyn got to 40% due to the anti Brexit vote. Labour is back to 32% with Opinium tonight as many of those diehard Remainers have gone to TIG who are now polling 6%
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    I would not be so sure, especially if they do a pact with the LDs.

    Labour gets to 25 to 35% on a pure anti austerity, left-wing message. Corbyn got to 40% due to the anti Brexit vote. Labour is back to 32% with Opinium tonight as many of those diehard Remainers have gone to TIG who are now polling 6%
    TIG do not exist as a registered political party so the polling figures remain purely hypothetical. Without their inclusion in the Opinium poll Labour would poll circa 35%/36%.
  • Scott_P said:
    Thought it was about my team yet again......
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,198
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    I would not be so sure, especially if they do a pact with the LDs.

    Labour gets to 25 to 35% on a pure anti austerity, left-wing message. Corbyn got to 40% due to the anti Brexit vote. Labour is back to 32% with Opinium tonight as many of those diehard Remainers have gone to TIG who are now polling 6%
    TIG do not exist as a registered political party so the polling figures remain purely hypothetical. Without their inclusion in the Opinium poll Labour would poll circa 35%/36%.
    Still below their 2017 vote and TIG will almost certainly stand candidates at the next general election
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    The big news tonight is that Charlie Falconer has not detected.

    Yet.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    No wonder little Owen's arse was making buttons through the week, this polling looks like it might set a few hares running.

    Front page Observer lead tomorrow references 'senior parliamentarian' ready to walk.


    {Pokémon Meme}
    A wild TIG appeared !

    TIG used SPLIT !

    It's super effective !

    LABOUR used BACKLASH !

    It hurt itself in its confusion !
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    _Anazina_ said:

    The big news tonight is that Charlie Falconer has not detected.

    Yet.

    Not detected any antisemitism?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    _Anazina_ said:

    The big news tonight is that Charlie Falconer has not detected.

    Yet.

    Please explain the Falconer meme, I was puzzled the first time
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    I am surprised to hear you talk in those terms. The present is the product of the past and we can hopefully learn from it. Dismissing the very recent past in that way rather conveys a sense of wishing to ignore facts which have proved unpalatable.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:
    Yet people still complain that we can’t have a Catholic monarch. No brainer innit.
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    I am surprised to hear you talk in those terms. The present is the product of the past and we can hopefully learn from it. Dismissing the very recent past in that way rather conveys a sense of wishing to ignore facts which have proved unpalatable.
    Bit like you dismissing 9 Labour MPs leaving the party.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    Labour members had a chance to get rid of him not that long ago but declined the opportunity.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    I would not be so sure, especially if they do a pact with the LDs.

    Labour gets to 25 to 35% on a pure anti austerity, left-wing message. Corbyn got to 40% due to the anti Brexit vote. Labour is back to 32% with Opinium tonight as many of those diehard Remainers have gone to TIG who are now polling 6%
    TIG do not exist as a registered political party so the polling figures remain purely hypothetical. Without their inclusion in the Opinium poll Labour would poll circa 35%/36%.
    Still below their 2017 vote and TIG will almost certainly stand candidates at the next general election
    Maybe they will but at the moment they have no policies , no candidates and no organisational infrastructure. It could well end up much more like Dick Taverne's Democratic Labour in the 1974 elections.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    People have been banging on about Corbyn being toxic for a while, if having a toxic leader see's us achieve our greatest increase in share of the vote since WW2 I think we definitely need a toxic leader if we want to stand a chance electorally.
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    People have been banging on about Corbyn being toxic for a while, if having a toxic leader see's us achieve our greatest increase in share of the vote since WW2 I think we definitely need a toxic leader if we want to stand a chance electorally.
    You are living in the past. This is now and he has been found out
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    I am surprised to hear you talk in those terms. The present is the product of the past and we can hopefully learn from it. Dismissing the very recent past in that way rather conveys a sense of wishing to ignore facts which have proved unpalatable.
    Bit like you dismissing 9 Labour MPs leaving the party.
    But I recall the 1981 launch of the SDP and the eventual defection of over 25 Labour MPs. Moreover, hypothetical polls for the SDP in March/April 1981 put them above 30% - far higher than anything we have seen tonight.
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    I am surprised to hear you talk in those terms. The present is the product of the past and we can hopefully learn from it. Dismissing the very recent past in that way rather conveys a sense of wishing to ignore facts which have proved unpalatable.
    You live in the past if you do not accept change
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    Labour members had a chance to get rid of him not that long ago but declined the opportunity.
    Not sure our leader is supposed to appeal to Conservative members really, If the Conservatives kept changing leader until they found one acceptable (but I still wouldn't vote for) to me then that sounds great.... to me.

    Not sure it is really doing much for the Tories electorally though.
  • AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    Labour members had a chance to get rid of him not that long ago but declined the opportunity.
    Not sure our leader is supposed to appeal to Conservative members really, If the Conservatives kept changing leader until they found one acceptable (but I still wouldn't vote for) to me then that sounds great.... to me.

    Not sure it is really doing much for the Tories electorally though.
    You need to attract conservative voters to gain office
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited February 2019

    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    Labour members had a chance to get rid of him not that long ago but declined the opportunity.
    Not sure our leader is supposed to appeal to Conservative members really, If the Conservatives kept changing leader until they found one acceptable (but I still wouldn't vote for) to me then that sounds great.... to me.

    Not sure it is really doing much for the Tories electorally though.
    Problem is that Corbyn has never appealed to a sizeable chunk of Labour members. About one third at the last count. But you would not know that from his rhetoric. He believes his own hype. He makes no effort to reach out. His cult denounce any criticism as Blairite and close their ears. In short he is his own worst enemy.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    I am surprised to hear you talk in those terms. The present is the product of the past and we can hopefully learn from it. Dismissing the very recent past in that way rather conveys a sense of wishing to ignore facts which have proved unpalatable.
    You live in the past if you do not accept change
    That is totally different from not being interested in the past. 'Those who ignore the past are doomed to repeat it!'. Not very conservative either.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    Labour members had a chance to get rid of him not that long ago but declined the opportunity.
    Not sure our leader is supposed to appeal to Conservative members really, If the Conservatives kept changing leader until they found one acceptable (but I still wouldn't vote for) to me then that sounds great.... to me.

    Not sure it is really doing much for the Tories electorally though.
    You need to attract conservative voters to gain office
    We did, your particular vote isn't going to go to a left wing Labour party so pleasing you, in much the same way the Conservative party pleasing me, is a complete waste.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Scott_P said:
    Blimey! Well that is quite the newsworthy and remarkable event.
    Yes, a Mail on Sunday story which looks interesting.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Not sure which polling organisation did the research but according to this report people support Javid on ISIS by 78% to 15%.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/23/shamima-begum-product-country-no-longer-believes/
  • AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    Labour members had a chance to get rid of him not that long ago but declined the opportunity.
    Not sure our leader is supposed to appeal to Conservative members really, If the Conservatives kept changing leader until they found one acceptable (but I still wouldn't vote for) to me then that sounds great.... to me.

    Not sure it is really doing much for the Tories electorally though.
    You need to attract conservative voters to gain office
    We did, your particular vote isn't going to go to a left wing Labour party so pleasing you, in much the same way the Conservative party pleasing me, is a complete waste.
    My vote could go to TIGs if we leave with no deal.

    However, you miss the point - labour needs conservative leaning voters to gain office
  • AndyJS said:

    Not sure which polling organisation did the research but according to this report people support Javid on ISIS by 78% to 15%.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/23/shamima-begum-product-country-no-longer-believes/

    And over 560,000 have signed the parliamentary e petition to ban all Isis members from returning to the UK
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    Labour members had a chance to get rid of him not that long ago but declined the opportunity.
    Not sure our leader is supposed to appeal to Conservative members really, If the Conservatives kept changing leader until they found one acceptable (but I still wouldn't vote for) to me then that sounds great.... to me.

    Not sure it is really doing much for the Tories electorally though.
    You need to attract conservative voters to gain office
    We did, your particular vote isn't going to go to a left wing Labour party so pleasing you, in much the same way the Conservative party pleasing me, is a complete waste.
    My vote could go to TIGs if we leave with no deal.

    However, you miss the point - labour needs conservative leaning voters to gain office
    Not true. Corbyn got plenty enough votes to win last time. If you stayed at home that would have been enough.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Not sure which polling organisation did the research but according to this report people support Javid on ISIS by 78% to 15%.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/23/shamima-begum-product-country-no-longer-believes/

    And over 560,000 have signed the parliamentary e petition to ban all Isis members from returning to the UK
    Yes, although it's obviously only a tiny percentage of the electorate so you have to take it with a pinch of salt.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited February 2019



    My vote could go to TIGs if we leave with no deal.

    However, you miss the point - labour needs conservative leaning voters to gain office

    You think Ms Soubry and Chris Leslie could deliver the radical economic policies that a minimal Brexit would require ?

    It’s a view.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    'On the brink of' eh? Can only be Brexit that will tip them over I guess, if it were anti-semitism there was no time like last week.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Is this why TIG have not formed a party? As long as polls like this they can make the argument of get rid of Corbyn and we will rejoin and then Labour have a chance of winning again. The withdrawal method applied to politics.

    I think that is right. The Labour TIGgers are hoping to rejoin. That is why there is no TIG party.

    The 3 Tory TIGgers have been suckered.
    Allen, at least, seems to be very disgusted with the Tories on many things, I doubt she would be concerned if Tig falls apart and she cannot go back. The other two I do not know, but frankly most of the splitters seem keen to stress they are still Labour/Tory at heart it is the others who have changed, so I don't think they are that committed necessarily to a new project, if it achieves its aim of influencing the others to prevent Brexit.
    My prediction on the night they left was Allen/Wollaston would join the LivDems and Soubry would become a Tory peer. I see no reason to change
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    TBH I am surprised Labour only get up to 40% in that without Corbyn poll when people can imagine whatever leader and set of policies they want...

    You lose some of that as soon as you stick an actual person with actual policies in the job. Also worth remembering if they are left wing then the papers aren't going to give them an easy ride, pretty soon they will be the evil communist threat.

    If they aren't left wing good luck getting 40%...

    I suspect - as happened in early 2017 - that the effect of this week's news has been to shift a good chunk of the Labour vote to Don't Know. Whether it would remain there in the course of a general election campaign is another matter.
    There was no TIG in 2017 and many Remainers then mistakenly hoped voting for Corbyn Labour would stop Brexit, they will not repeat that mistake
    There would be no TIG at an election held within the next three months either. Labour's strong performance in 2017 had very little to do with Brexit but rather Corbyn's success in raising issues which voters found much more directly relevant to their daily lives.
    That was then. This is now. Corbyn is toxic
    Two years ago you would have said likewise. Remember the Copeland by election in late February 2017?
    Not interested in the past. Everything has changed and Corbyn has been exposed and is toxic for labour

    Labour's only hope is to get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitic marxist cabal or split
    People have been banging on about Corbyn being toxic for a while, if having a toxic leader see's us achieve our greatest increase in share of the vote since WW2 I think we definitely need a toxic leader if we want to stand a chance electorally.
    The biggest increase thing is definitely noteworthy as it was impressive and unexpected, but it's little different to people praising May for getting such a high share, it didn't matter because he didn't win and she didn't get a majority respectively, and more to the point plenty of others never had the chance to see such a big increase because they didn't come from a lower point (though I'm sure plenty tried and failed).

    It isn't as amazing a defence point as Corbyn fans think it is, even though he did much better than most people thought.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Freggles said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    The big news tonight is that Charlie Falconer has not detected.

    Yet.

    Please explain the Falconer meme, I was puzzled the first time
    Stems back to when Corbyn faced a barrel of resignations as I recall. Falconer did so, but it was reported again as if were new, I seem to recall. So each time it was treated as if it were earth shattering.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Allen and Woolaston were never in the correct party.

    Soubry was until her loyalty to the EU trumped all else.
This discussion has been closed.