One other thing that is being missed is the closer to Brexit day we move the more producers with lead times and products produced in the EU will have to start quoting prices with customs duties included. You can see all the German, French, Slovakia and Spanish car producers having to jack prices 10%. This will lead to another PR battle between the remainers and leavers with leavers saying buy british all the time on TV and remainers playing the victim card.
The real question will be the order level at the EU produced cars dealerships. If they fall substantially yet UK produced models do not suffer a fall then look out for the EU to instantly become more accommodating.
Why would there be a 10% tariff on incoming cars? The WTO tariff is 10%, but the UK can waive it and have a zero car tariff if it likes: it's not automatically applied.
So. When is the UK going to pass a law to put a 10% tariff on cars?
There is no such thing as a WTO tariff. Countries have tariffs and lodge them at the WTO. To stop any prospect of objections at the WTO as we move to independent status the only thing we can do is lodge a schedule of tariffs that is identical as we use today (we have done this last year), it is even priced in Euros. This is because we currently use the CET from the EU and this is what we will use day one of Brexit. The EU tariff on cars is 10%.
OK, so we're going to lodge a schedule of tariffs of 10% on cars, yes? (Or am already doing so?) Am I correct that would be all foreign cars, not just the EU ones (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872).
We have already lodged it. Yes it is all foreign cars. It is a very large incentive for South Korea for example to "grandfather" the EU-SK FTA for a couple of years to ensure their cars come in tariff free.
The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.
Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest. Some of this has been made plain. Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
Most of us were too young to recall Suez (Jack W excepted) but I wonder whether we were as much the laughing stock of the world then as we are now.
I've said it before, but the rest of the world has far more serious issues to concern itself with than political posturing in a wealthy country.
"The mood across Europe, appears to be one of resignation and bafflement as they struggle to come to terms with May's u-turn on re-opening the withdrawal agreement given the fact that there is still no majority in the Commons for a workable deal with the EU."
Maybe they'd be less baffled if they understood that for the past year when we said we didn't like their proposed backstop that we meant it.
The backstop that the Prime Minister personally negotiated and signed off and then insisted loudly for a year was completely necessary you mean?
The Prime Minister has been telling the EU for two years her red lines, and the EU have been surprisingly flexible in attempting to accommodate her nonsense.
Perhaps the EU should have realised sooner that May is a tin-eared automaton, unreliable, incompetent, xenophobic, destructively obstinate and tribally dishonest.
Unfortunately she's also the PM and that's who they've had to deal with.
"The mood across Europe, appears to be one of resignation and bafflement as they struggle to come to terms with May's u-turn on re-opening the withdrawal agreement given the fact that there is still no majority in the Commons for a workable deal with the EU."
Maybe they'd be less baffled if they understood that for the past year when we said we didn't like their proposed backstop that we meant it.
The backstop that the Prime Minister personally negotiated and signed off and then insisted loudly for a year was completely necessary you mean?
The Prime Minister has been telling the EU for two years her red lines, and the EU have been surprisingly flexible in attempting to accommodate her nonsense.
Perhaps the EU should have realised sooner that May is a tin-eared automaton, unreliable, incompetent, xenophobic, destructively obstinate and tribally dishonest.
Unfortunately she's also the PM and that's who they've had to deal with.
And there we are.
You're making the mirror argument (from a europhile viewpoint) of David Davis that only Theresa May is standing in the way of a deal. The Red lines were not plucked out of thin air.
The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.
Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest. Some of this has been made plain. Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
Most of us were too young to recall Suez (Jack W excepted) but I wonder whether we were as much the laughing stock of the world then as we are now.
I've said it before, but the rest of the world has far more serious issues to concern itself with than political posturing in a wealthy country.
I'm taking my annual trip to Brazil next week. I'm not really looking forward to the polite questions, and barely-disguised incredulity. And believe me that is a country with problems of its own.
The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.
Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest. Some of this has been made plain. Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
Most of us were too young to recall Suez (Jack W excepted) but I wonder whether we were as much the laughing stock of the world then as we are now.
I've said it before, but the rest of the world has far more serious issues to concern itself with than political posturing in a wealthy country.
I do remember Suez, just. The main fear then was all out war.
I agree, Sean, there is interest and a great deal of bewilderment elsewhere, but basically they have more important things to think about.
Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
Bet Sky and BBC do not cover that
I was queuing for bread earlier next to someone with a bit of euro accent who thought its a good idea to reopen the agreement. There you are, there’s another one! They’re splintering. They’re splintering at an alarming rate now.
It’s not one or two voices here there people mention or link to that contemplate opening the agreement to get a better one that is indicative, but the other 440 million voices who quickly say no. If someone answered yes open it we can get better deal they might be thinking its better with UK in CU.
all this clutching at straws to try and justify the governments position just looks sad and pathetic. If people doing it aren’t careful they find others subtly taking the piss.
14th Feb there’s a vote May loses. 15th she calls the General Election to try and force the May Deal through.
Decades from now the younglings will ask, it was all before I was born, how did Jeremy Corbyn actually become Prime Minister?
Can anyone tell me - is the plan for Theresa May to go to Brussels to be told in person that the EU won't renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement, or is it already time to move on to the next stage? Whatever that is.
Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
Unless Ireland agrees though they could veto the final trade agreement and even the Withdrawal Agreement needs approval by QMV
If Parliament votes for permanent Customs Union and half the Cabinet resigns it will be near impossible for May to stop a permanent Customs Union unless she wants to set up the biggest constitutional crisis between legislature and executive in a century which would likely lead to a successful VONC soon enough anyway
Of course, a permanent customs union doesn't remove the need for a backstop, so it actually solves nothing beyond catalysing the merciful implosion of the Tories.
No but the Deal has the backstop anyway and not one Brexiteer opponent of the Deal would vote for permanent Customs Union
The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.
Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest. Some of this has been made plain. Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
Most of us were too young to recall Suez (Jack W excepted) but I wonder whether we were as much the laughing stock of the world then as we are now.
I've said it before, but the rest of the world has far more serious issues to concern itself with than political posturing in a wealthy country.
I'm taking my annual trip to Brazil next week. I'm not really looking forward to the polite questions, and barely-disguised incredulity. And believe me that is a country with problems of its own.
Strange - my experience has been the opposite.
Even from people in the country which has the most to lose if the hard brexit fear mongers are right.
Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
Bet Sky and BBC do not cover that
14th Feb there’s a vote May loses. 15th she calls the General Election to try and force the May Deal through.
Um, earliest day for a GE called on February 15th would be March 28th...
Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
Bet Sky and BBC do not cover that
I suspect that the EU's 'knee-jerk rejection' is the final nail in EU-Ref 2. Even if the supporters of a People's vote could get the support they need in Parliament I would expect the EU's response (and how it is - and will be - portrayed in the media) to secure another Remain defeat.
If it’s clear they want us out then “Piss off Juncker, we’re staying” could work.
Thank you for flying Brexit Airways, enjoy your crash.
Grabcoque redux!
If someone is banned they should remain outside, they shouldn’t sneak noncompliant posts through an unfenced border and make mockery of all the rules we got in place.
Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
Unless Ireland agrees though they could veto the final trade agreement and even the Withdrawal Agreement needs approval by QMV
One thing that's bothering me. The EU seems explicitly clear that the withdrawal agreement will not be renegotiated, why are people still banging on about a CU ?
Surely that would count as renegotiation and be off the table now ?
Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
Bet Sky and BBC do not cover that
14th Feb there’s a vote May loses. 15th she calls the General Election to try and force the May Deal through.
Um, earliest day for a GE called on February 15th would be March 28th...
Yeah? I refer you to the comments the Leader of the House made some days ago, about few weeks extension to tie up legal formalities. If May wins that GE her deal goes through. If she doesn’t, will the last one out the basement where the cheka putting bullets in the heads please turn out the lights.
The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.
Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest. Some of this has been made plain. Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
Most of us were too young to recall Suez (Jack W excepted) but I wonder whether we were as much the laughing stock of the world then as we are now.
I've said it before, but the rest of the world has far more serious issues to concern itself with than political posturing in a wealthy country.
I'm taking my annual trip to Brazil next week. I'm not really looking forward to the polite questions, and barely-disguised incredulity. And believe me that is a country with problems of its own.
Brazil has a homicide rate 25 times higher than ours. The average Brazilian would give his eye teeth to have our problems.
Thank you for flying Brexit Airways, enjoy your crash.
Grabcoque redux!
If someone is banned they should remain outside, they shouldn’t sneak noncompliant posts through an unfenced border and make mockery of all the rules we got in place.
If I were you I'd worry about your own posts. Plenty to be getting on with there before you turn your attention to other people's.
One thing that's bothering me. The EU seems explicitly clear that the withdrawal agreement will not be renegotiated, why are people still banging on about a CU ?
Surely that would count as renegotiation and be off the table now ?
[puts on Kenneth Williams voice] oh, but they’d actually like “that” negotiation
One thing that's bothering me. The EU seems explicitly clear that the withdrawal agreement will not be renegotiated, why are people still banging on about a CU ?
Surely that would count as renegotiation and be off the table now ?
Given that the WA contains provisions for a customs union perhaps something can be worked out that is similar. The frothers will be apoplectic but that's frothers for you.
The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.
Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest. Some of this has been made plain. Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
Most of us were too young to recall Suez (Jack W excepted) but I wonder whether we were as much the laughing stock of the world then as we are now.
I've said it before, but the rest of the world has far more serious issues to concern itself with than political posturing in a wealthy country.
I do remember Suez, just. The main fear then was all out war.
I agree, Sean, there is interest and a great deal of bewilderment elsewhere, but basically they have more important things to think about.
When I was growing up, the fear was perishing in a nuclear fire/winter. Threads was actually overoptimistic, when it suggested a population of 11 million, a decade after we were hit by 210 megatons. 750,000 or so, would be more realistic.
The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.
Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest. Some of this has been made plain. Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
Most of us were too young to recall Suez (Jack W excepted) but I wonder whether we were as much the laughing stock of the world then as we are now.
I've said it before, but the rest of the world has far more serious issues to concern itself with than political posturing in a wealthy country.
I'm taking my annual trip to Brazil next week. I'm not really looking forward to the polite questions, and barely-disguised incredulity. And believe me that is a country with problems of its own.
Brazil has a homicide rate 25 times higher than ours. The average Brazilian would give his eye teeth to have our problems.
Yes, as I said in my post - I'm well aware of that. And if it was a marginally safer, had a marginally less corrupt political class I'd have moved there years ago. But all that doesn't stop Brazilians from being aware of, and genuinely bewildered by, what is happening here.
Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
Bet Sky and BBC do not cover that
Channel 4 News featured an interview with John Whittingdale in which he indicated that some German whose name he couldn't pronounce and a Pole had come round to the British view. Definitely getting there ...
It’s already reached the point of taking the piss out of people peddling “they’re splintering” line
One thing that's bothering me. The EU seems explicitly clear that the withdrawal agreement will not be renegotiated, why are people still banging on about a CU ?
Surely that would count as renegotiation and be off the table now ?
So if I was the EU my thinking would be as follows:
I really really don't want a disorderly Brexit and as Theresa May is coming maybe I can bodge something together with her. But I have made so many public pronouncements saying that I'm not budging, plus I'm aware of the example this would set in any other negotiation if I caved now, that I'm not sure I can do anything other than stick to my public line.
Start of common sense coming to light? "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
An extension till the end of 2020?
Just shoot me and throw my corpse in the Thames now. Get it over with.
I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?
I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.
The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?
I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.
The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
As far as I am aware No Deal Brexit will pose major customs and licencing challenges, but does not amount to an economic blockade. I'd have thought the main effect would be price spikes in fresh food imported from the EU with a knock on effect to the broader economy.
Noone will go hungry but it won't be popular either.
Imagine , No Lettuce , will be a disaster
When I was at university, our tutor asked us why it was so difficult for food producers to set up a cartel similar to OPEC. It seems so blindingly obvious, but none of us were smart enough to say "because you can go without certain food products like bananas; there aren't many alternatives to oil."
So it's puzzled me as to why we're not being told that there will be petrol and diesel shortages as that would have much more impact on people.
Because we don't import our petrol and diesel from the EU.
Remember the World Cup beer crisis? Maybe refinery’s need stocks of certain special type of NaOH in order to refine to a standard that car engines need, and it turns out we import 94% of from Spain and Italy. Who knows what little surprises are in store...
Presumably with a permanent Customs Union included, May's deal would receive enough backing from Labour and Tories who want to avoid no deal. So why not go that route for now?
Presumably "a permanent Customs Union" is not actually permanent forever and we could withdraw from it after the transition period if it were in the Conservative manifesto at the next GE and they won.
So if I was the EU my thinking would be as follows:
I really really don't want a disorderly Brexit and as Theresa May is coming maybe I can bodge something together with her. But I have made so many public pronouncements saying that I'm not budging, plus I'm aware of the example this would set in any other negotiation if I caved now, that I'm not sure I can do anything other than stick to my public line.
Not to mention that there is absolutely no guarantee that any changes would a) be supported by all EU countries, b) pass the House, or, perhaps most importantly c) junked at the first politically opportune moment, urged on by a chorus of ERGers in the belief that Johnny Foreigner was on the run.
Can't disagree with much in Alastair's article, If we have another referendum perhaps we should consider adding a further option to abolish parliament altogether and be governed entirely by the EU. I seriously doubt we would be worse off.
Start of common sense coming to light? "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
An extension till the end of 2020?
Just shoot me and throw my corpse in the Thames now. Get it over with.
Get in line.
I don’t want to be a killjoy, bodies in Thames contravenes a few environmental standards set by the EU, and we wouldn’t actually be out of them by the time the corpse hits the splishy stuff.
So if I was the EU my thinking would be as follows:
I really really don't want a disorderly Brexit and as Theresa May is coming maybe I can bodge something together with her. But I have made so many public pronouncements saying that I'm not budging, plus I'm aware of the example this would set in any other negotiation if I caved now, that I'm not sure I can do anything other than stick to my public line.
The EU is one of the many actors in this drama that has made a complete Horlicks of its role.
Thank you for flying Brexit Airways, enjoy your crash.
Grabcoque redux!
If someone is banned they should remain outside, they shouldn’t sneak noncompliant posts through an unfenced border and make mockery of all the rules we got in place.
If I were you I'd worry about your own posts. Plenty to be getting on with there before you turn your attention to other people's.
Firstly, you’ve completely missed the clever metaphor to the UK EU border.
So if I was the EU my thinking would be as follows:
I really really don't want a disorderly Brexit and as Theresa May is coming maybe I can bodge something together with her. But I have made so many public pronouncements saying that I'm not budging, plus I'm aware of the example this would set in any other negotiation if I caved now, that I'm not sure I can do anything other than stick to my public line.
The EU is one of the many actors in this drama that has made a complete Horlicks of its role.
Whereas we thought they needed us more than we needed them, I think the EU have been in denial about us leaving and now it's too late.
That said the backstop could and can never be compromised. So all roads would have lead here whatever the interim process.
So if I was the EU my thinking would be as follows:
I really really don't want a disorderly Brexit and as Theresa May is coming maybe I can bodge something together with her. But I have made so many public pronouncements saying that I'm not budging, plus I'm aware of the example this would set in any other negotiation if I caved now, that I'm not sure I can do anything other than stick to my public line.
I think that's probably where they are. As I said yesterday, I think if the EU put a time limit on the backstop the government have the votes to ram it through the house.
I actually think 5-7 year time limit suits us as it gives us a lot more time to fix our non-EU trade deals without having to worry about a cliff edge in two years and negotiating from a position of weakness.
Start of common sense coming to light? "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
An extension till the end of 2020?
Just shoot me and throw my corpse in the Thames now. Get it over with.
Get in line.
I don’t want to be a killjoy, bodies in Thames contravenes a few environmental standards set by the EU, and we wouldn’t actually be out of them by the time the corpse hits the splishy stuff.
We are in danger of having enough boys and girls queuing up to make a new Thames crossing replacing the old London Bridge. God knows what they would think of that. They might even chuck us out and finally solve the problem!
So if I was the EU my thinking would be as follows:
I really really don't want a disorderly Brexit and as Theresa May is coming maybe I can bodge something together with her. But I have made so many public pronouncements saying that I'm not budging, plus I'm aware of the example this would set in any other negotiation if I caved now, that I'm not sure I can do anything other than stick to my public line.
I think that's probably where they are. As I said yesterday, I think if the EU put a time limit on the backstop the government have the votes to ram it through the house.
I actually think 5-7 year time limit suits us as it gives us a lot more time to fix our non-EU trade deals without having to worry about a cliff edge in two years and negotiating from a position of weakness.
You are making the mistake of considering the national interest.
The ERG-ers won't have that as it runs the risk of a Corbyn govt making the terms of the backstop permanent.
As of right now that more than slightly fortuitous point at OT last night is looking a lot better than it did this morning.
Yes, but a lot happened in the last ten minutes of that game -what might still happen tonight?
Hence the reference to right now. Chelsea are looking to be in a difficult place. I wonder how the manager's attempts to inspire his team are going tonight. Spurs may get something yet.
Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
Bet Sky and BBC do not cover that
I was queuing for bread earlier next to someone with a bit of euro accent who thought its a good idea to reopen the agreement. There you are, there’s another one! They’re splintering. They’re splintering at an alarming rate now.
It’s not one or two voices here there people mention or link to that contemplate opening the agreement to get a better one that is indicative, but the other 440 million voices who quickly say no. If someone answered yes open it we can get better deal they might be thinking its better with UK in CU.
all this clutching at straws to try and justify the governments position just looks sad and pathetic. If people doing it aren’t careful they find others subtly taking the piss.
14th Feb there’s a vote May loses. 15th she calls the General Election to try and force the May Deal through.
Decades from now the younglings will ask, it was all before I was born, how did Jeremy Corbyn actually become Prime Minister?
I think I'm getting whiplash trying to follow your predictions. Weren't you earlier today confidently predicting the EU was going to blink?
So if I was the EU my thinking would be as follows:
I really really don't want a disorderly Brexit and as Theresa May is coming maybe I can bodge something together with her. But I have made so many public pronouncements saying that I'm not budging, plus I'm aware of the example this would set in any other negotiation if I caved now, that I'm not sure I can do anything other than stick to my public line.
I think that's probably where they are. As I said yesterday, I think if the EU put a time limit on the backstop the government have the votes to ram it through the house.
I actually think 5-7 year time limit suits us as it gives us a lot more time to fix our non-EU trade deals without having to worry about a cliff edge in two years and negotiating from a position of weakness.
You are making the mistake of considering the national interest.
The ERG-ers won't have that as it runs the risk of a Corbyn govt making the terms of the backstop permanent.
If we get the deal through I think we ride the wave until 2022 and stay in power until 2027. If we don't Corbyn wins, gets deposed by a restless Labour party and Starmer takes us back into the EU without a vote in 2022.
It's a huge one, but if the EU offer some kind of time limitation on the backstop we'd be absolutely foolish not to take it, even at 10 years.
As of right now that more than slightly fortuitous point at OT last night is looking a lot better than it did this morning.
Yes, but a lot happened in the last ten minutes of that game -what might still happen tonight?
Hence the reference to right now. Chelsea are looking to be in a difficult place. I wonder how the manager's attempts to inspire his team are going tonight. Spurs may get something yet.
Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
Bet Sky and BBC do not cover that
I was queuing for bread earlier next to someone with a bit of euro accent who thought its a good idea to reopen the agreement. There you are, there’s another one! They’re splintering. They’re splintering at an alarming rate now.
It’s not one or two voices here there people mention or link to that contemplate opening the agreement to get a better one that is indicative, but the other 440 million voices who quickly say no. If someone answered yes open it we can get better deal they might be thinking its better with UK in CU.
all this clutching at straws to try and justify the governments position just looks sad and pathetic. If people doing it aren’t careful they find others subtly taking the piss.
14th Feb there’s a vote May loses. 15th she calls the General Election to try and force the May Deal through.
Decades from now the younglings will ask, it was all before I was born, how did Jeremy Corbyn actually become Prime Minister?
I think I'm getting whiplash trying to follow your predictions. Weren't you earlier today confidently predicting the EU was going to blink?
Why have Liverpool decided to revert to the nervous defence they've had of the last few years? And when did we forget you need to have chances to score?
If you can't get your own deal through the Commons, of course you have to seek to change that deal. What is so difficult about understanding that reality?
I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?
I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.
The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?
I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.
The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
As far as I am aware No Deal Brexit will pose major customs and licencing challenges, but does not amount to an economic blockade. I'd have thought the main effect would be price spikes in fresh food imported from the EU with a knock on effect to the broader economy.
Noone will go hungry but it won't be popular either.
Imagine , No Lettuce , will be a disaster
When I was at university, our tutor asked us why it was so difficult for food producers to set up a cartel similar to OPEC. It seems so blindingly obvious, but none of us were smart enough to say "because you can go without certain food products like bananas; there aren't many alternatives to oil."
So it's puzzled me as to why we're not being told that there will be petrol and diesel shortages as that would have much more impact on people.
Because we don't import our petrol and diesel from the EU.
Since when have facts got in the way of scaremongering?
Are you two both high? We have been a net importer of finished petrol and diesel since 2013. Refining capacity is going down, not up
As of right now that more than slightly fortuitous point at OT last night is looking a lot better than it did this morning.
Yes, but a lot happened in the last ten minutes of that game -what might still happen tonight?
Hence the reference to right now. Chelsea are looking to be in a difficult place. I wonder how the manager's attempts to inspire his team are going tonight. Spurs may get something yet.
Sarri won't last the season.
Don't bet on Puel being next manager to go. He is safe until summer, and maybe another season. This is a work in progress, and Top knows it.
If you can't get your own deal through the Commons, of course you have to seek to change that deal. What is so difficult about understanding that reality?
Indeed. I think changing it in this way won't work, but it is trying to do what parliament wants. And those cowardly leaking ministers are liars - if the plan was mad they should have resigned rather than go along with it. None of that 'can do more good from the inside' bollocks, you cannot modulate madness.
It's yet more ministers just seeking to defend themselves post May by saying they never supported the thing they demonstrably supported with their votes.
You do have to laugh. Having spent more than 2 years negotiating a deal and insisting until a few days ago that the deal is the only deal, May whips her party to vote against it - and does so herself. Why? So that she can go back to Brussels and be told what she already knows.
Expect xenophobia writ large coming soon. Hate foreigners, the bullying scum. And when we say foreigners, to a Conservative and Unionist MP that will mean the Scots Welsh and Irish as well.
As of right now that more than slightly fortuitous point at OT last night is looking a lot better than it did this morning.
Yes, but a lot happened in the last ten minutes of that game -what might still happen tonight?
Hence the reference to right now. Chelsea are looking to be in a difficult place. I wonder how the manager's attempts to inspire his team are going tonight. Spurs may get something yet.
Sarri won't last the season.
Don't bet on Puel being next manager to go. He is safe until summer, and maybe another season. This is a work in progress, and Top knows it.
I don't know Puel does to attract the negative press. Quite why Southampton sacked him I don't know.
One thing that's bothering me. The EU seems explicitly clear that the withdrawal agreement will not be renegotiated, why are people still banging on about a CU ?
Surely that would count as renegotiation and be off the table now ?
What at least the Commission has been saying is that they will *only reopen negotiations if the British change TMay's red lines*. They're not prepared to do another round banging their heads against the same walls as they have for the last 2 years, but if one of the previous constraints has gone then changing the agreement might have a point. I'm not sure whether the rest of the member states agree with this - at this point it would probably need more time so potentially you need unanimity - but I don't we've heard anything to the contrary.
What's more mysterious about the people in Britain who say they want a permanent customs union is why they won't just take TMay's deal, since gives the UK the right to a customs union under quite generous conditions...
As of right now that more than slightly fortuitous point at OT last night is looking a lot better than it did this morning.
Yes, but a lot happened in the last ten minutes of that game -what might still happen tonight?
Hence the reference to right now. Chelsea are looking to be in a difficult place. I wonder how the manager's attempts to inspire his team are going tonight. Spurs may get something yet.
Sarri won't last the season.
Started pretty well but the gloss has come off real quick.
You do have to laugh. Having spent more than 2 years negotiating a deal and insisting until a few days ago that the deal is the only deal, May whips her party to vote against it - and does so herself. Why? So that she can go back to Brussels and be told what she already knows.
It's another reason she should have actually had the MV back in December. She pulled it and said she would seek changes as it was going to lose. She got nothing, and it lost hugely, and she's used that to point out to the EU that the deal won't pass can she please have some changes.
No, it is not working, but if the idea is parliament formally rejecting her deal and making a comment on a specific aspect might help the EU change its mind, it definitely should have been tried earlier, so it could be recognised if it was not working earlier so more could be tried.
As of right now that more than slightly fortuitous point at OT last night is looking a lot better than it did this morning.
Yes, but a lot happened in the last ten minutes of that game -what might still happen tonight?
Hence the reference to right now. Chelsea are looking to be in a difficult place. I wonder how the manager's attempts to inspire his team are going tonight. Spurs may get something yet.
Sarri won't last the season.
Started pretty well but the gloss has come off real quick.
I can not understand why Chelsea appointed him. Last year in the Champions League it was City v Napoli and all the pundits were going on about Sarri ball and how good it was. Man City rocked up in Napoli and game them a lesson. The writing was on the wall.
Jonathan Pearce: Not many will give Bournemouth a chance here given their run of just three league wins in 13 games, Chelsea's 100% record at the Vitality Stadium and the visitors' buoyant cup wins last week...I can't see Bournemouth keeping a clean sheet but it'll be closer than some people think.
I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?
I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.
The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?
I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.
The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
As far as I am aware No Deal Brexit will pose major customs and licencing challenges, but does not amount to an economic blockade. I'd have thought the main effect would be price spikes in fresh food imported from the EU with a knock on effect to the broader economy.
Noone will go hungry but it won't be popular either.
Imagine , No Lettuce , will be a disaster
When I was at university, our tutor asked us why it was so difficult for food producers to set up a cartel similar to OPEC. It seems so blindingly obvious, but none of us were smart enough to say "because you can go without certain food products like bananas; there aren't many alternatives to oil."
So it's puzzled me as to why we're not being told that there will be petrol and diesel shortages as that would have much more impact on people.
Wouldn’t oil have dedicated locations for take on? Not being trucked via ferries to Dover.
You do have to laugh. Having spent more than 2 years negotiating a deal and insisting until a few days ago that the deal is the only deal, May whips her party to vote against it - and does so herself. Why? So that she can go back to Brussels and be told what she already knows.
It's another reason she should have actually had the MV back in December. She pulled it and said she would seek changes as it was going to lose. She got nothing, and it lost hugely, and she's used that to point out to the EU that the deal won't pass can she please have some changes.
No, it is not working, but if the idea is parliament formally rejecting her deal and making a comment on a specific aspect might help the EU change its mind, it definitely should have been tried earlier, so it could be recognised if it was not working earlier so more could be tried.
She doesn't honestly expect any chance of changes. It's more deliberate time-wasting to create a forced choice between two options she is happy with: deal/no deal.
Since time-wasting is the point of the exercise not wasting time would not help.
I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.
The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
As far as I am aware No Deal Brexit will pose major customs and licencing challenges, but does not amount to an economic blockade. I'd have thought the main effect would be price spikes in fresh food imported from the EU with a knock on effect to the broader economy.
Noone will go hungry but it won't be popular either.
Imagine , No Lettuce , will be a disaster
When I was at university, our tutor asked us why it was so difficult for food producers to set up a cartel similar to OPEC. It seems so blindingly obvious, but none of us were smart enough to say "because you can go without certain food products like bananas; there aren't many alternatives to oil."
So it's puzzled me as to why we're not being told that there will be petrol and diesel shortages as that would have much more impact on people.
Because we don't import our petrol and diesel from the EU.
Since when have facts got in the way of scaremongering?
Are you two both high? We have been a net importer of finished petrol and diesel since 2013. Refining capacity is going down, not up
I think the point is that imported petrol/diesel/gas/crude doesn't queue with the lorries at Calais and Dover, it comes ashore as liquid bulk at Milford Haven, Immingham etc., from all over the world. Since it takes all day and a file of paperwork to offload a tanker, it's not the sort of thing that tariffs or NTB paperwork would really slow down.
You do have to laugh. Having spent more than 2 years negotiating a deal and insisting until a few days ago that the deal is the only deal, May whips her party to vote against it - and does so herself. Why? So that she can go back to Brussels and be told what she already knows.
It's another reason she should have actually had the MV back in December. She pulled it and said she would seek changes as it was going to lose. She got nothing, and it lost hugely, and she's used that to point out to the EU that the deal won't pass can she please have some changes.
No, it is not working, but if the idea is parliament formally rejecting her deal and making a comment on a specific aspect might help the EU change its mind, it definitely should have been tried earlier, so it could be recognised if it was not working earlier so more could be tried.
She doesn't honestly expect any chance of changes. It's more deliberate time-wasting to create a forced choice between two options she is happy with: deal/no deal.
Since time-wasting is the point of the exercise not wasting time would not help.
The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.
Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest. Some of this has been made plain. Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
Most of us were too young to recall Suez (Jack W excepted) but I wonder whether we were as much the laughing stock of the world then as we are now.
I've said it before, but the rest of the world has far more serious issues to concern itself with than political posturing in a wealthy country.
I'm not putting you in that category, but there's a strain of Brexit thought that believes the UK is a very, very important country of which the world should take note, even more so when we're unmoored from EU mediocrity to confidently cruise the globalist oceans.
I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?
I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.
The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?
I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.
The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
As far as I am aware No Deal Brexit will pose major customs and licencing challenges, but does not amount to an economic blockade. I'd have thought the main effect would be price spikes in fresh food imported from the EU with a knock on effect to the broader economy.
Noone will go hungry but it won't be popular either.
Imagine , No Lettuce , will be a disaster
When I was at university, our tutor asked us why it was so difficult for food producers to set up a cartel similar to OPEC. It seems so blindingly obvious, but none of us were smart enough to say "because you can go without certain food products like bananas; there aren't many alternatives to oil."
So it's puzzled me as to why we're not being told that there will be petrol and diesel shortages as that would have much more impact on people.
Wouldn’t oil have dedicated locations for take on? Not being trucked via ferries to Dover.
Sorry, I was being facetious. I'm sure we're fine for oil (apart from the value of the £), but nothing would surprise me in the war for hearts and minds.
On topic - I agree with Alistair 100%. When the brown stuff contacts the air conditioning in such a way as the public notices, which will probably not be until we are well into March, there will be panic and it is very hard to guess what the outcome will be. But we can be sure that it will not be pleasant and the Tories will bet the blame.
The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.
Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest. Some of this has been made plain. Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
Most of us were too young to recall Suez (Jack W excepted) but I wonder whether we were as much the laughing stock of the world then as we are now.
I've said it before, but the rest of the world has far more serious issues to concern itself with than political posturing in a wealthy country.
In the last few weeks I’ve had more people asking me if I think a deal is going to get done. They’re not laughing at us but interested - prior to that it never came up
Thank you for flying Brexit Airways, enjoy your crash.
Grabcoque redux!
If someone is banned they should remain outside, they shouldn’t sneak noncompliant posts through an unfenced border and make mockery of all the rules we got in place.
If I were you I'd worry about your own posts. Plenty to be getting on with there before you turn your attention to other people's.
You’ve completely missed dots clever metaphor to the EU UK border, totally central to all this impasse by taking my post so literally. 🤕 dots not aggressive to (strangely) popular grabcouque, dots slipping in smart metaphor
“If May wins that GE her deals goes through, if she doesn’t, will the last person out the basement where the cheka are putting bullets in heads please turn out the lights”
Topping you are saying this is reference to Labour Government shooting people? Not even Grabcouque at very worst would say such terrible thing about any government, St Gammons Day pun would pale into insignificance
I’m drawing metaphoric parallel to sort of situation brought the Bolshevik to power in Russia. Political impasse. Vacuum. Miscalculations. That makes the unthinkable happen...
Again It was real historic (so sadly) and metaphoric, mix with UK Journalism famous fantabulous
The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.
Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest. Some of this has been made plain. Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
Good post. No chance, as you say, because the whole system is built upon vested interest
No one is changing their minds. The government still seems to be pushing its deal, though it enthrals no one and appals many. The Labour leadership opposes it in favour of its own deal which borrows philosophically from Rorschach inkblots. Conservative Leavers oppose it without being very clear what they would actually actively accept, if they would actively accept anything
It's why kick the can is still everyone's preferred game. Until someone breaks nothing will happen. It's at times like this we could use a few more political cowards who would break, one way or another!
Yes, looked out of it not half an hour ago. I do wish Liverpool could have timed their best title chance in my living memory to not also during the gut punch that is the Brexit settlement period, I'm not sure my nerves can handle both. Scratch that, I know they cannot.
No one is changing their minds. The government still seems to be pushing its deal, though it enthrals no one and appals many. The Labour leadership opposes it in favour of its own deal which borrows philosophically from Rorschach inkblots. Conservative Leavers oppose it without being very clear what they would actually actively accept, if they would actively accept anything
It's why kick the can is still everyone's preferred game. Until someone breaks nothing will happen. It's at times like this we could use a few more political cowards who would break, one way or another!
Or the EU tell us to grow up and sod off - which I suspect they are starting to want to actually state out loud.
They have as much as done that already, it hasn't made anyone change their view.
No one is changing their minds. The government still seems to be pushing its deal, though it enthrals no one and appals many. The Labour leadership opposes it in favour of its own deal which borrows philosophically from Rorschach inkblots. Conservative Leavers oppose it without being very clear what they would actually actively accept, if they would actively accept anything
It's why kick the can is still everyone's preferred game. Until someone breaks nothing will happen. It's at times like this we could use a few more political cowards who would break, one way or another!
Or the EU tell us to grow up and sod off - which I suspect they are starting to want to actually state out loud.
The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.
Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest. Some of this has been made plain. Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
Most of us were too young to recall Suez (Jack W excepted) but I wonder whether we were as much the laughing stock of the world then as we are now.
I've said it before, but the rest of the world has far more serious issues to concern itself with than political posturing in a wealthy country.
I'm not putting you in that category, but there's a strain of Brexit thought that believes the UK is a very, very important country of which the world should take note, even more so when we're unmoored from EU mediocrity to confidently cruise the globalist oceans.
I'd say there's a wide strain of political thought that believes the UK is a very, very important country of which the world should take note.
Middle Eastern warmongering, Overseas Aid spending (remember the UK was to become an 'Aid Superpower') and the 'Special Relationship' fawning to the USA being examples.
Blair, Brown and Cameron all had heavy doses of it and possibly Corbyn as well, though Corbyn's would be of a different variety.
As of right now that more than slightly fortuitous point at OT last night is looking a lot better than it did this morning.
Yes, but a lot happened in the last ten minutes of that game -what might still happen tonight?
Hence the reference to right now. Chelsea are looking to be in a difficult place. I wonder how the manager's attempts to inspire his team are going tonight. Spurs may get something yet.
Sarri won't last the season.
Don't bet on Puel being next manager to go. He is safe until summer, and maybe another season. This is a work in progress, and Top knows it.
Leicester are in their natural league position. There’s no work to progress. It’s done.
As of right now that more than slightly fortuitous point at OT last night is looking a lot better than it did this morning.
Yes, but a lot happened in the last ten minutes of that game -what might still happen tonight?
Hence the reference to right now. Chelsea are looking to be in a difficult place. I wonder how the manager's attempts to inspire his team are going tonight. Spurs may get something yet.
Sarri won't last the season.
Don't bet on Puel being next manager to go. He is safe until summer, and maybe another season. This is a work in progress, and Top knows it.
I don't know Puel does to attract the negative press. Quite why Southampton sacked him I don't know.
He’s a colourless charisma vacuum - that can’t be blamed on his English, his French language press conferences were as soul destroying.
If the EU really want May's deal to pass they should make it clear that they will not agree an extension to A50 under any circumstances other than to enable the passing of the legislation to enact an agreed deal.
Unless votes can be won from the ERG or Labour the Deal is dead. There's no chance of votes from the ERG and May won't offer anything to win votes from Labour. The deal is dead.
So if he wants to avoid no deal he has to act now, because May isn't going to do anything to avoid it.
Almost all the PB Conservatives now support May's deal - some enthusiastically and some more grudgingly so - yet a large proportion of Conservative politicians oppose it and very few have publicly supported it.
Why is there this difference between PB Conservatives and Conservative politicians.
Telegraph says the AG is looking at Fiona Onasanya's sentence for undue leniency.
A 3-month sentence means that with good behaviour she could be out by mid-March ready to vote on the PM's nth iteration of the WA deal. Imagine if it were her vote to tie and Bercow went against the PM with a casting vote.
If the EU really want May's deal to pass they should make it clear that they will not agree an extension to A50 under any circumstances other than to enable the passing of the legislation to enact an agreed deal.
Thing is there must be a significant block of EU thinking that we might just call the whole thing off, certainly until a couple of days ago that must have been at the back of many minds across the EU. That's looking a lot less likely now, but has the EU realised that yet?
So if both the UK and EU want to avoid no deal, then some compromise has to be found very shortly.
Comments
I agree, Sean, there is interest and a great deal of bewilderment elsewhere, but basically they have more important things to think about.
It’s not one or two voices here there people mention or link to that contemplate opening the agreement to get a better one that is indicative, but the other 440 million voices who quickly say no. If someone answered yes open it we can get better deal they might be thinking its better with UK in CU.
all this clutching at straws to try and justify the governments position just looks sad and pathetic. If people doing it aren’t careful they find others subtly taking the piss.
14th Feb there’s a vote May loses. 15th she calls the General Election to try and force the May Deal through.
Decades from now the younglings will ask, it was all before I was born, how did Jeremy Corbyn actually become Prime Minister?
Even from people in the country which has the most to lose if the hard brexit fear mongers are right.
If someone is banned they should remain outside, they shouldn’t sneak noncompliant posts through an unfenced border and make mockery of all the rules we got in place.
Give me strength!
Surely that would count as renegotiation and be off the table now ?
If she doesn’t, will the last one out the basement where the cheka putting bullets in the heads please turn out the lights.
Given that the WA contains provisions for a customs union perhaps something can be worked out that is similar. The frothers will be apoplectic but that's frothers for you.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union
I really really don't want a disorderly Brexit and as Theresa May is coming maybe I can bodge something together with her. But I have made so many public pronouncements saying that I'm not budging, plus I'm aware of the example this would set in any other negotiation if I caved now, that I'm not sure I can do anything other than stick to my public line.
Presumably "a permanent Customs Union" is not actually permanent forever and we could withdraw from it after the transition period if it were in the Conservative manifesto at the next GE and they won.
Secondly, like what?
That said the backstop could and can never be compromised. So all roads would have lead here whatever the interim process.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1090717431344087053
I actually think 5-7 year time limit suits us as it gives us a lot more time to fix our non-EU trade deals without having to worry about a cliff edge in two years and negotiating from a position of weakness.
The ERG-ers won't have that as it runs the risk of a Corbyn govt making the terms of the backstop permanent.
Did anyone seriously think that? UK GDPPPP is just short of $3 trillion. The rest of the EU is 6x as much.
It's a huge one, but if the EU offer some kind of time limitation on the backstop we'd be absolutely foolish not to take it, even at 10 years.
Christ this is a lonnnnng brexit
It's yet more ministers just seeking to defend themselves post May by saying they never supported the thing they demonstrably supported with their votes.
Expect xenophobia writ large coming soon. Hate foreigners, the bullying scum. And when we say foreigners, to a Conservative and Unionist MP that will mean the Scots Welsh and Irish as well.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html
But I guess there are different figures out there, it's an estimate after all.
What's more mysterious about the people in Britain who say they want a permanent customs union is why they won't just take TMay's deal, since gives the UK the right to a customs union under quite generous conditions...
No, it is not working, but if the idea is parliament formally rejecting her deal and making a comment on a specific aspect might help the EU change its mind, it definitely should have been tried earlier, so it could be recognised if it was not working earlier so more could be tried.
Some people get their money easy...
Since time-wasting is the point of the exercise not wasting time would not help.
“If May wins that GE her deals goes through, if she doesn’t, will the last person out the basement where the cheka are putting bullets in heads please turn out the lights”
Topping you are saying this is reference to Labour Government shooting people? Not even Grabcouque at very worst would say such terrible thing about any government, St Gammons Day pun would pale into insignificance
I’m drawing metaphoric parallel to sort of situation brought the Bolshevik to power in Russia. Political impasse. Vacuum. Miscalculations. That makes the unthinkable happen...
Again It was real historic (so sadly) and metaphoric, mix with UK Journalism famous fantabulous
Go ahead. Ban dots ☹️
No one is changing their minds. The government still seems to be pushing its deal, though it enthrals no one and appals many. The Labour leadership opposes it in favour of its own deal which borrows philosophically from Rorschach inkblots. Conservative Leavers oppose it without being very clear what they would actually actively accept, if they would actively accept anything
It's why kick the can is still everyone's preferred game. Until someone breaks nothing will happen. It's at times like this we could use a few more political cowards who would break, one way or another!
Middle Eastern warmongering, Overseas Aid spending (remember the UK was to become an 'Aid Superpower') and the 'Special Relationship' fawning to the USA being examples.
Blair, Brown and Cameron all had heavy doses of it and possibly Corbyn as well, though Corbyn's would be of a different variety.
Following my usual practice I wish to inform you that I have today bet £500 with Betfair at 9/4 on the UK leaving the EU by 29/3/2019. #BigBoyPants .
Of course if they do delay it by a couple of weeks as that article[1] suggests I shall look like a tit.
Dammit.
[1] https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/101496/excl-top-tory-officials-give
Unless votes can be won from the ERG or Labour the Deal is dead. There's no chance of votes from the ERG and May won't offer anything to win votes from Labour. The deal is dead.
So if he wants to avoid no deal he has to act now, because May isn't going to do anything to avoid it.
Almost all the PB Conservatives now support May's deal - some enthusiastically and some more grudgingly so - yet a large proportion of Conservative politicians oppose it and very few have publicly supported it.
Why is there this difference between PB Conservatives and Conservative politicians.
A 3-month sentence means that with good behaviour she could be out by mid-March ready to vote on the PM's nth iteration of the WA deal. Imagine if it were her vote to tie and Bercow went against the PM with a casting vote.
So if both the UK and EU want to avoid no deal, then some compromise has to be found very shortly.