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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking stock of Brexit with fewer than 60 days until we Leave
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking stock of Brexit with fewer than 60 days until we Leave
Let’s take stock of where we are right now. Most of the leading chains of supermarkets, together with KFC, Pret A Manger and McDonald’s, have warned that a no-deal Brexit would put Britain’s food security at risk. The Health Secretary has confirmed that medicines are going to be prioritised over food, which is simultaneously very sensible and absolutely nuts.
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It will no doubt come down to the last hour, and will probably require some face-saving fudging BUT when it comes to the crunch a deal will get passed.
We just have to go through the hysterical melodrama first so everybody can be satisfied they did as much as they reasonably could to move the process in their direction.
The way they keep repeating "no more negotiations" is very telling - they obviously know that they are going to be just as badly done over as we are by no deal (indeed, Ireland will have it worse than us), and are currently having one last roll of the die. If they send May back with no improvement this time, and parliament holds it's nerve and still refuses to sign on the dotted line, the EU will have to blink - and they know it, hence all the current rhetorical guff about how the backstop can't be removed.
Only the EU could insist on breaking down negotiations over a disagreement on how a future relationship breakdown will be handled - it's almost worthy of the Pythons!
The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
Why has Starmer not resigned and led the labour remain group of mps
"There are currently no alternative arrangements, which anyone has put forward, which achieve what both sides are determined to achieve..."
"Currently" rather stands out from that sentence!
Best of breed best of burghers, as they say in Nuremberg
That will do wonders for their reputation I'm sure.
"Lasting choices will be made quickly off the back of emotion."
So what's new?
However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop
The problem with the permanent CU is the Prime Minister has ruled it out on a number of occasions. There may be a majority in the Commons but I doubt there is in the Conservative Party.
IF May returned from any talks with only a permanent CU, my guess is there would be significant turmoil within the Party but you'd know that better than I.
I also assume a permanent CU would wreck the Conservative-DUP agreement as well.
"That joke isn't funny any more. It's too close to home, too near the bone..."
https://www.mcdonalds.com/gb/en-gb/good-to-know/about-our-food/beef.html
Either she has to resign before it is implemented, or she has to get a new mandate in a fresh election.
It looks a low-likelihood outcome.
Well if we look at market share the 48% of supermarkets did not sign the letter and 52% did.
Interesting stat that. Would we say most of the British public voted for brexit?
I don't doubt that many of those who voted against the Spelman amendment are actually against no deal. The distinction is whether they feel formally keeping no deal on the table will make the EU more likely to shift its position.
The Mexicans pay for the Irish wall and the EU pays for the Mexican wall
That way everyone’s happy...
So if Marquee Mark is right and the bulk of the Conservative Party won't accept a permanent CU, that comes off the table.
Revocation is political suicide so I think we can rule that out as well.
We are back where we have always been - May's WA (without amendment) or leaving without a Deal. The obfuscation of yesterday has made no real difference - the Brady amendment is Conservative/DUP unicorn hunting. It's clear this is the Deal they will accept and there are only two problems with that:
1) It's not the WA that is on the table.
2) The EU have said they won't change the WA and even if they did they probably wouldn't accept removing the backstop.
Any trip May makes to Brussels is a fool's errand but that's not why she will go - she now knows full well there will be no Deal. We are now in the blame game and May is determined to get the British public not to blame her or her party but the "nasty Europeans". That was the line after the Salzburg nonsense.
The slightest disrespect to our Prime Minister is blown up to be an international incident by the absurd jingoism of the Mail and Express who are of course quite happy to aim personal jibes and slurs at anyone prominent in the EU such as Juncker and Weygand.
Create an enemy add a little fear and you'll get people to agree to anything and everything.
Nirvana is Buddhist, which any human may attain....
That said another good header. My take is that people are aware, anxious, but not yet ready to take concrete action to prepare.
This applies to politicians and the general public alike.
Noone will go hungry but it won't be popular either.
I had to laugh when Matt Forde suggested Anna Soubry become Tory party leader on Twitter earlier today. He made similar suggestions for all the other major parties too.
That is unlikely given May ruled out No Deal Brexit to Ministers a few days ago and if the Deal goes down again half the Cabinet, including Philip Hammond the Chancellor, will shift to back permanent Customs Union instead
That said, I kind of mean mentally prepared for No Deal. Hardcore leavers don't believe there will be a problem. The rest don't believe it will happen.
We are not at the abyss looking stage yet.
The majority of the Tory Party may oppose permanent Customs Union but it would still likely pass the Commons if put to the vote as the only alternative left to No Deal. There may be a general election after if the DUP pull the plug but so be it
So it's puzzled me as to why we're not being told that there will be petrol and diesel shortages as that would have much more impact on people.
If on 14 Feb Parliament shows no love to May's Valentines MV and May says no deal it is then, what can Parliament do to stop her? If Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve et al No Confidence her then Parliament dissolves on 28 Feb 28 or 1 March setting up an April election. And we no deal exit during the election.
https://www.ft.com/content/6de7c97e-42b8-39f8-ad38-f9c016ea6135
In another galaxy would be more accurate ...
If the Tory Party wants to No Deal exit DURING an election campaign, then all I would say is bring on JCPM with a big majority.
Even TM would not be THAT insane.
The Prime Minister has been telling the EU for two years her red lines, and the EU have been surprisingly flexible in attempting to accommodate her nonsense.
Perhaps the EU should have realised sooner that May is a tin-eared automaton, unreliable, incompetent, xenophobic, destructively obstinate and tribally dishonest.
Unfortunately she's also the PM and that's who they've had to deal with.
And there we are.
This will lead to another PR battle between the remainers and leavers with leavers saying buy british all the time on TV and remainers playing the victim card.
The real question will be the order level at the EU produced cars dealerships. If they fall substantially yet UK produced models do not suffer a fall then look out for the EU to instantly become more accommodating.
How on earth Soubry Grieve and Wollaston no confidence her when she is there for 12 months after ERG going off too soon ( and I did say it at the time) and maybe you need to understand better how a vonc on the government works to expect a disolution of the HOC by 28th Feb
The following Summer, however, it was an atrocity that no Prime Minister could ever agree to.
Conclusion: it took seven months for a single Brexiteer to actually bother to read the backstop that they'd previously feted her for negotiating.
Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."
So. When is the UK going to pass a law to put a 10% tariff on cars?
Just shoot me and throw my corpse in the Thames now. Get it over with.
Some of this has been made plain.
Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.