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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking stock of Brexit with fewer than 60 days until we Leave

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    NEW THREAD
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Cicero said:

    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.


    ;)


    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
    About half and slowly rising
    It's probably not that we can't produce the food ourselves, just that it's cheaper to import it at the moment.
    The 'probably' in that sentence is doing a lot of work.

    We could feed ourselves at pinch. The free market is an amazingly efficient way of organising production and consumption. I don't think we'd like the results much though.
    we eat 20% too much and throw away 30% of the food we buy uneaten

    nobody is going to starve though supermarkets might sell less.

    Why not put that pithy summation on the side of public transport...

    The problem with Brexit is not that we necessarily starve. It is the permanent loss of most of our remaining manufacturing and the imposition of a drag on our competitiveness that will increase costs on the surviving part of the economy by about 10%-15%. The impact is to turn the UK from a contender in the global markets into an economy that lacks the skills, the efficiency and the leadership to do more than drift out of the top ten.

    A future selling scones to Chinese tourists while they admire our absurdly old fashioned ways, like our political system, is not the future I would want for my kids.

    This is a turning point, and the Conservative Party which has inflicted this disaster on the country should be eviscerated. The so-called party of business has systematically trashed the business environment in the most reckless and stupid way possible.

    Big changes are coming. They are needed.
    BiB - The politics of Goldilocks.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Cicero said:

    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is adve as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.


    ;)


    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
    About half and slowly rising
    It's probably not that we import it at the moment.
    The 'probably' in that sentence is doing a much though.
    we eat 20% too much and throw away 30% of the food we buy uneaten

    nobody is going to starve though supermarkets might sell less.

    Why not put that pithy summation on the side of public transport...

    The problem with Brexit is not that we necessarily starve. It is the permanent loss of most of our remaining manufacturing and the imposition of a drag on our competitiveness that will increase costs on the surviving part of the economy by about 10%-15%. The impact is to turn the UK from a contender in the global markets into an economy that lacks the skills, the efficiency and the leadership to do more than drift out of the top ten.

    A future selling scones to Chinese tourists while they admire our absurdly old fashioned ways, like our political system, is not the future I would want for my kids.

    This is a turning point, and the Conservative Party which has inflicted this disaster on the country should be eviscerated. The so-called party of business has systematically trashed the business environment in the most reckless and stupid way possible.

    Big changes are coming. They are needed.
    Firstly we will not starve
    Secondly our manufacturing has been butchered whilst in the EU or didnt you notice ?
    Thirdly competitiveness is not fixed it moves and countries adapt to changing circumstances
    Finally yes change will come, that's in part what the vote was about.


  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barclays is moving €190bn (£166bn) of assets to Dublin because it "cannot wait any longer" to implement its Brexit contingency plan. The High Court, which has approved the move, says the move involves 5,000 clients. However, few jobs in London are expected to be affected.

    The business amounts to around 15% of the bank's £1.2 trillion in total assets and was previously conducted in the UK through branches across the EU.
    The plans will be in place by 29 March. The bank's Dublin operation is expected to double in size to 300 people as a result of the business being channelled though the Irish capital.

    So hang on, few jobs lost in London, but 300 extra in Dublin. Are these jobs being lost in "branches across the [non-UK] EU then?
    Perhaps more significant is the massive drop in investment in the motor industry ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47055188
    How much of that is related to their entire business model seems to be in turmoil and new vehicles aren’t being launched because of a lack of regulatory certainty?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr b,

    "Partly a consequence of May's obsession with secrecy, I think."

    Maybe so, but all governments leak like sieves. One problem has been opposition parties have always had little power in our democracy. They have to keep being noticed. Vince Cable? Is he still alive? Being noticed means going along with nothing the government proposes.

    As we virtually have a hung-Parliament, it's in Labour's own interest to keep the arguments going as long as possible before stepping in as saviours. Unfortunately, with 'Ol Bonehead in charge, the best they can hope for is a hung Parliament.

    May's deal would honour the referendum result if it had a definite date for leaving (i.e. a date when we stop paying). The EU would be happy to force us to stay in the CU, but if that's the case, why should we pay if we have no influence, and we don't want to stay in it?

    There is no Gordian knot, it's just common sense that is missing.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    the talent pool below Nicola is somewhat depleted.

    It's barely a puddle
    Scotland is lucky. Sturgeon, Salmond and Davidson are substantial figures (like or loathe them).

    Have you seen the talent we have got in Wales in any of the three main parties ?

    Barely enough for a tear.

    Weep for Wales.
    Mind you 49% of Welsh voters voted against even having a Welsh Assembly in 1997 compared to just 25% of Scots who voted against having a Scottish Parliament and the independence movement has always been stronger in Scotland than in Wales.

    Hence more heavyweight figures in Scotland decide to build careers at Holyrood rather than Westminster than heavyweight figures in Wales decide to build a career at Cardiff Bay than Westminster
    The Scottish Parliament was held in some disregard until Salmond became FM.

    Whatever ones own personal opinion of the man, there is no doubt that Salmond turned that around when he stood as an MSP and then relinquished the B&B Westminster seat.

    There is no future for Wales until there is a realistic prospect of altering the one-party state. At the moment, there is the worst gerrymander in the Western world where Labour get 50 per cent of the seats on 30 per cent of the vote and Labour pipsqueaks preside over grotesque national decline.

    There is bloody reckoning coming for Welsh Labour, although probably not till Labour are in charge of Westminster again.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840



    at any other time - outside the Brexit prism - worthy types like yourself would be advocating eating less ( save the NHS ) or stopping food waste. Now youve turned it all on its head just to feed a scare story. Brexit is driving you mad.

    Irrespective of brexit eating less and not throwing food away is a good thing and still will be whatever type of deal emerges.

    Eat 20% too much of what though?

    Fresh fruit and Veg? Seems unlikely.

    Red meat? Probably underselling it.

    And I assume the average person eats 20% too much?

    If the only effect from any problem with food shortages was overweight people eating less and people being less wasteful then I would be up for making it happen somehow regardless of what happens with Brexit. Seems a little optimistic though.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    the talent pool below Nicola is somewhat depleted.

    It's barely a puddle
    Scotland is lucky. Sturgeon, Salmond and Davidson are substantial figures (like or loathe them).

    Have you seen the talent we have got in Wales in any of the three main parties ?

    Barely enough for a tear.

    Weep for Wales.

    There is a limited talent pool of genuinely good people who wish to stand for election. The number of legislative bodies in the UK may have exacerbated the dilution effect.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413



    at any other time - outside the Brexit prism - worthy types like yourself would be advocating eating less ( save the NHS ) or stopping food waste. Now youve turned it all on its head just to feed a scare story. Brexit is driving you mad.

    Irrespective of brexit eating less and not throwing food away is a good thing and still will be whatever type of deal emerges.

    Eat 20% too much of what though?

    Fresh fruit and Veg? Seems unlikely.

    Red meat? Probably underselling it.

    And I assume the average person eats 20% too much?

    If the only effect from any problem with food shortages was overweight people eating less and people being less wasteful then I would be up for making it happen somehow regardless of what happens with Brexit. Seems a little optimistic though.
    45% of all salads sit in the fridge and then get thrown away
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    matt said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    the talent pool below Nicola is somewhat depleted.

    It's barely a puddle
    Scotland is lucky. Sturgeon, Salmond and Davidson are substantial figures (like or loathe them).

    Have you seen the talent we have got in Wales in any of the three main parties ?

    Barely enough for a tear.

    Weep for Wales.

    There is a limited talent pool of genuinely good people who wish to stand for election. The number of legislative bodies in the UK may have exacerbated the dilution effect.
    The shit-show that is putting your head above the parpapet on social media is a bigger reason. Successful people in whatever field just look at how public discourse is now dominated by the vicious and the stupid and quietly think "nah....".
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840



    at any other time - outside the Brexit prism - worthy types like yourself would be advocating eating less ( save the NHS ) or stopping food waste. Now youve turned it all on its head just to feed a scare story. Brexit is driving you mad.

    Irrespective of brexit eating less and not throwing food away is a good thing and still will be whatever type of deal emerges.

    Eat 20% too much of what though?

    Fresh fruit and Veg? Seems unlikely.

    Red meat? Probably underselling it.

    And I assume the average person eats 20% too much?

    If the only effect from any problem with food shortages was overweight people eating less and people being less wasteful then I would be up for making it happen somehow regardless of what happens with Brexit. Seems a little optimistic though.
    45% of all salads sit in the fridge and then get thrown away
    Not sure that really answers my points...

    Like I said if I believed that food shortages will only cut out waste and stop overeating I'd be all up for making it happen. Just not really convinced.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084


    Why not put that pithy summation on the side of public transport...

    The problem with Brexit is not that we necessarily starve. It is the permanent loss of most of our remaining manufacturing and the imposition of a drag on our competitiveness that will increase costs on the surviving part of the economy by about 10%-15%. The impact is to turn the UK from a contender in the global markets into an economy that lacks the skills, the efficiency and the leadership to do more than drift out of the top ten.

    A future selling scones to Chinese tourists while they admire our absurdly old fashioned ways, like our political system, is not the future I would want for my kids.

    This is a turning point, and the Conservative Party which has inflicted this disaster on the country should be eviscerated. The so-called party of business has systematically trashed the business environment in the most reckless and stupid way possible.

    Big changes are coming. They are needed.

    Firstly we will not starve
    Secondly our manufacturing has been butchered whilst in the EU or didnt you notice ?
    Thirdly competitiveness is not fixed it moves and countries adapt to changing circumstances
    Finally yes change will come, that's in part what the vote was about.




    Do keep up old boy... it wasn't the EU that screwed manufacturing it was crappy management, short sighted finance, and Thatcherism -all home grown.

    Brexit just delivers the final kick
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413



    at any other time - outside the Brexit prism - worthy types like yourself would be advocating eating less ( save the NHS ) or stopping food waste. Now youve turned it all on its head just to feed a scare story. Brexit is driving you mad.

    Irrespective of brexit eating less and not throwing food away is a good thing and still will be whatever type of deal emerges.

    Eat 20% too much of what though?

    Fresh fruit and Veg? Seems unlikely.

    Red meat? Probably underselling it.

    And I assume the average person eats 20% too much?

    If the only effect from any problem with food shortages was overweight people eating less and people being less wasteful then I would be up for making it happen somehow regardless of what happens with Brexit. Seems a little optimistic though.
    45% of all salads sit in the fridge and then get thrown away
    Not sure that really answers my points...

    Like I said if I believed that food shortages will only cut out waste and stop overeating I'd be all up for making it happen. Just not really convinced.
    theres nothing to be convinced about. You can make your own mind up about the siren warnings but we have a long way to go before we have a famine. At best we might just cut back on buying things we throw away at worst some product lines might be missing for a bit.
    More likely the avoidable panic means we;ll stock up on things we dont need and then throw them away later.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Cicero said:

    Why not put that pithy summation on the side of public transport...

    The problem with Brexit is not that we necessarily starve. It is the permanent loss of most of our remaining manufacturing and the imposition of a drag on our competitiveness that will increase costs on the surviving part of the economy by about 10%-15%. The impact is to turn the UK from a contender in the global markets into an economy that lacks the skills, the efficiency and the leadership to do more than drift out of the top ten.

    A future selling scones to Chinese tourists while they admire our absurdly old fashioned ways, like our political system, is not the future I would want for my kids.

    This is a turning point, and the Conservative Party which has inflicted this disaster on the country should be eviscerated. The so-called party of business has systematically trashed the business environment in the most reckless and stupid way possible.

    Big changes are coming. They are needed.

    Firstly we will not starve
    Secondly our manufacturing has been butchered whilst in the EU or didnt you notice ?
    Thirdly competitiveness is not fixed it moves and countries adapt to changing circumstances
    Finally yes change will come, that's in part what the vote was about.




    Do keep up old boy... it wasn't the EU that screwed manufacturing it was crappy management, short sighted finance, and Thatcherism -all home grown.

    Brexit just delivers the final kick

    the biggest drop in manufacturing was under Blair. If you mean New Labour was crappy management couldnt agree with you more.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840



    at any other time - outside the Brexit prism - worthy types like yourself would be advocating eating less ( save the NHS ) or stopping food waste. Now youve turned it all on its head just to feed a scare story. Brexit is driving you mad.

    Irrespective of brexit eating less and not throwing food away is a good thing and still will be whatever type of deal emerges.

    Eat 20% too much of what though?

    Fresh fruit and Veg? Seems unlikely.

    Red meat? Probably underselling it.

    And I assume the average person eats 20% too much?

    If the only effect from any problem with food shortages was overweight people eating less and people being less wasteful then I would be up for making it happen somehow regardless of what happens with Brexit. Seems a little optimistic though.
    45% of all salads sit in the fridge and then get thrown away
    Not sure that really answers my points...

    Like I said if I believed that food shortages will only cut out waste and stop overeating I'd be all up for making it happen. Just not really convinced.
    theres nothing to be convinced about. You can make your own mind up about the siren warnings but we have a long way to go before we have a famine. At best we might just cut back on buying things we throw away at worst some product lines might be missing for a bit.
    More likely the avoidable panic means we;ll stock up on things we dont need and then throw them away later.
    I am not claiming there will be food shortages or famines I have mostly avoided the arguments about it.

    But your response to discussion of food shortages is we eat to much and waste food as if there would be no problems but only solutions because of food shortages seems hopelessly optimistic or naive.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited January 2019
    Cicero said:



    Blah

    There is no point blathering about incompetence of others if you can't get the block quotes right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    the talent pool below Nicola is somewhat depleted.

    It's barely a puddle
    Scotland is lucky. Sturgeon, Salmond and Davidson are substantial figures (like or loathe them).

    Have you seen the talent we have got in Wales in any of the three main parties ?

    Barely enough for a tear.

    Weep for Wales.
    Mind you 49% of Welsh voters voted against even having a Welsh Assembly in 1997 compared to just 25% of Scots who voted against having a Scottish Parliament and the independence movement has always been stronger in Scotland than in Wales.

    Hence more heavyweight figures in Scotland decide to build careers at Holyrood rather than Westminster than heavyweight figures in Wales decide to build a career at Cardiff Bay than Westminster
    The Scottish Parliament was held in some disregard until Salmond became FM.

    Whatever ones own personal opinion of the man, there is no doubt that Salmond turned that around when he stood as an MSP and then relinquished the B&B Westminster seat.

    There is no future for Wales until there is a realistic prospect of altering the one-party state. At the moment, there is the worst gerrymander in the Western world where Labour get 50 per cent of the seats on 30 per cent of the vote and Labour pipsqueaks preside over grotesque national decline.

    There is bloody reckoning coming for Welsh Labour, although probably not till Labour are in charge of Westminster again.
    Wales has voted Labour in every election bar one European election for a century, I doubt that will change anytime soon
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    A lesson from history: want to end global warming? Then kill all the farmers.....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47063973
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Cicero said:

    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is adve as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.


    ;)


    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
    About half and slowly rising
    It's probably not that we import it at the moment.
    The 'probably' in that sentence is doing a much though.
    we eat 20% too much and throw away 30% of the food we buy uneaten

    nobody is going to starve though supermarkets might sell less.

    Why not put that pithy summation on the side of public transport...

    The problem with Brexit is not that we necessarily starve. It is the permanent loss of most of our remaining manufacturing and the imposition of a drag on our competitiveness that will increase costs on the surviving part of the economy by about 10%-15%. The impact is to turn the UK from a contender in the global markets into an economy that lacks the skills, the efficiency and the leadership to do more than drift out of the top ten.

    A future selling scones to Chinese tourists while they admire our absurdly old fashioned ways, like our political system, is not the future I would want for my kids.

    This is a turning point, and the Conservative Party which has inflicted this disaster on the country should be eviscerated. The so-called party of business has systematically trashed the business environment in the most reckless and stupid way possible.

    Big changes are coming. They are needed.
    Secondly our manufacturing has been butchered whilst in the EU or didnt you notice ?

    Doesn't really look like it:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/timeseries/k22a/diop
    image
  • Interesting as ever. Hold ups to Fast Food.....Not exactly priority in an absurdly obese nation. Maybe it's a city thing. We don't do fast anything in the countryside - including broadband! Y
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