Labour whipping for the Cooper amendment appears on the face of it to undermine the theory (which I was starting to give credence to) that they are seeking to drive May to a cliff-edge 'lose lose' choice between no deal and revoke.
I was starting to wonder too. But I don't think Corbyn is a Machiavelli.
The news that Labour will vote for the Cooper-Boles amendment while hard line Brexiteers like Redwood say they will vote against the Brady amendment means the former rather than the latter is more likely to pass and an extension to Article 50 will replace a proposal to remove the backstop from the Deal as the next step.
If the Grieve amendment also passes giving over Tuesdays to MPs Brexit proposals tonight will mark the start of transfer of control over Brexit from the executive to the legislature with BINO the likeliest outcome as a result
So, according to that report, Boston is booming because 10 years ago it was a wasteland with lots of boarded up shops that immigrants re-opened and now it is thriving again. It has low unemployment too.
But the key issue is that the locals "Doan like forriners! They speak funny...."
It is about prejudice, not economics.
Keep not listening. It's why, in a second referendum situation, leave would win again.
If you post up articles saying that immigrants regenerated a town and the indigenous folk do not like hearing languages other than English then what sort of reply do you expect to get?
I am past the whole Leave / Remain thing. I still believe that Remaining is best and Leaving is national self-harm, but I am resigned to the country leaving on a WTO basis and I will find the fallout interesting to watch.
Basically - I no longer give a f**k. My country (as was) has gone. The UK is now nothing other than a bipolar mess.
A fine post Bev. You articulate the views of many. The damage has been done but unless the fallout is big enough the morons who inflicted it won't notice and will go along believing that our destiny is to always rule the waves.....
8. But since that is not, apparently, going to be on offer, I would choose Revoke rather than a No Deal exit. If politicians do Revoke they should explain why & let voters judge at the next election. It is a high risk strategy but there are no good options given that other ways out are being closed off, for no very good reason. A No Deal exit is a risk too far, IMO, for lots of reasons.
I agree with all of your reasoning, but sadly I am convinced that (a) May's priorities are immigration control and party unity, (b) Corbyn's priority is blaming everything on the Tories, and, (c) there are not enough MPs on both sides who are willing to defy their party leadership.
I think this leads us to no deal.
Yes. It is why I am so irritated by the whole thing. This total fixation on the survival of out-of-date ideologies (both in the Tories and Labour) combined with the "throw the country under the bus" attitude.
Representative democracy is dead.
But the electorate voted for this. Twice, in fact. It really is a bit rum to be getting angry with Parliament for delivering what the electorate twice voted for.
They have voted us into an economic meltdown (WTO) and then failing to mitigate it in anyway because a) it would split the Tory party and b) it would split the Labour party.
Brexit is now about party management until the 29th March.
How many countries trade on WTO basis? one, two?
If trading in WTO is so great, why does anyone bother with trade agreements? WTO is a backstop - a starting point. It is the fit-anybody kind of trade deal. It is far, far worse than what we have.
But do not worry - no one gives a d*mn about the economics. Just wave your hand airily and voice a few platitudes and wait for reality to kick you up the backside.
Trading on WTO terms is no great problem if that's what firms have built their business models around.
Going from the most unrestricted multinational trade zone in the world, to WTO terms, overnight, would be a bloody big problem.
‘Wide open’, but I think the contest is between Biden and Harris.
Strange poll of Democratic voters based on those naming a preference.
Biden leads on 9%, Harris second on 8%, Sanders 3rd with 4% (4% also say they would vote to re elect Trump), O'Rourke is next on 3% and Warren joint last on 2% with Michelle Obama
So, according to that report, Boston is booming because 10 years ago it was a wasteland with lots of boarded up shops that immigrants re-opened and now it is thriving again. It has low unemployment too.
But the key issue is that the locals "Doan like forriners! They speak funny...."
It is about prejudice, not economics.
Keep not listening. It's why, in a second referendum situation, leave would win again.
If you post up articles saying that immigrants regenerated a town and the indigenous folk do not like hearing languages other than English then what sort of reply do you expect to get?
I am past the whole Leave / Remain thing. I still believe that Remaining is best and Leaving is national self-harm, but I am resigned to the country leaving on a WTO basis and I will find the fallout interesting to watch.
Basically - I no longer give a f**k. My country (as was) has gone. The UK is now nothing other than a bipolar mess.
A fine post Bev. You articulate the views of many. The damage has been done but unless the fallout is big enough the morons who inflicted it won't notice and will go along believing that our destiny is to always rule the waves.....
She articulates the views of the 48% at best. I really do sometimes wish for a second referendum just so you lot can hector the electorate, call them a bunch of morons, and scare them with project fear mark II. The look on your faces when you lose a second time will be priceless.
The news that Labour will vote for the Cooper-Boles amendment while hard line Brexiteers like Redwood say they will vote against the Brady amendment means the former rather than the latter is more likely to pass and an extension to Article 50 will replace a proposal to remove the backstop from the Deal as the next step.
If the Grieve amendment also passes giving over Tuesdays to MPs Brexit proposals tonight will mark the start of transfer of control over Brexit from the executive to the legislature with BINO the likeliest outcome as a result
Not quite. If Cooper passes it gives the government until 26th Feb before a decision which labour are saying they want to truncate the delay to 3 months.
Just confirmed by labour they have agreed with Cooper that the delay will be until no later than 1st July
Can I add to the praise for Cyclefree's 10 point sermon down thread? I felt I was reading my own thoughts but more ordered and coherent than if I'd tried to spill them out myself.
Sounds like there will be a couple of close votes later, but all the amendments are rubbish, if these are as far as we can go, then we are in deep trouble, amendments to revoke, delay for X are the only things worth bothering with now.
Gonna be a hell of a lot of dead unicorns mid April unless something big happens...
The German armed forces are struggling to recruit soldiers, they lack key equipment and in Afghanistan they are using civilian contractors to ferry soldies as they cant maintain their own helicopters.
‘Wide open’, but I think the contest is between Biden and Harris.
Strange poll of Democratic voters based on those naming a preference.
Biden leads on 9%, Harris second on 8%, Sanders 3rd with 4% (4% also say they would vote to re elect Trump), O'Rourke is next on 3% and Warren joint last on 2% with Michelle Obama
They wouldn't vote to re-elect Trump, they'd vote for him in a Democratic primary or caucus.
Going to go ahead and suggest we don't take that one tooseriously.
The effect of passing both the Cooper and Brady amendments tonight is that the UK would be asking the EU for nine more months to talk to itself about things that are not going to happen. We've had enough of that already. 0 replies . 2 retweets 0 likes
The news that Labour will vote for the Cooper-Boles amendment while hard line Brexiteers like Redwood say they will vote against the Brady amendment means the former rather than the latter is more likely to pass and an extension to Article 50 will replace a proposal to remove the backstop from the Deal as the next step.
If the Grieve amendment also passes giving over Tuesdays to MPs Brexit proposals tonight will mark the start of transfer of control over Brexit from the executive to the legislature with BINO the likeliest outcome as a result
Not quite. If Cooper passes it gives the government until 26th Feb before a decision which labour are saying they want to truncate the delay to 3 months.
3 months plenty of time to pass permanent Customs Union which already got 301 MPs voting for it last year.
By voting down the Deal and Brady amendment the ERG are helping ensure BINO is the likeliest outcome, not No Deal
Will be funny if there's no majority for any of the amendments.
I actually think that's what's needed; none of the amendments face up to the enormity of the situation, and indeed some are just time-wasters when we don't have time to waste,
So, according to that report, Boston is booming because 10 years ago it was a wasteland with lots of boarded up shops that immigrants re-opened and now it is thriving again. It has low unemployment too.
But the key issue is that the locals "Doan like forriners! They speak funny...."
It is about prejudice, not economics.
Keep not listening. It's why, in a second referendum situation, leave would win again.
If you post up articles saying that immigrants regenerated a town and the indigenous folk do not like hearing languages other than English then what sort of reply do you expect to get?
I am past the whole Leave / Remain thing. I still believe that Remaining is best and Leaving is national self-harm, but I am resigned to the country leaving on a WTO basis and I will find the fallout interesting to watch.
Basically - I no longer give a f**k. My country (as was) has gone. The UK is now nothing other than a bipolar mess.
A fine post Bev. You articulate the views of many. The damage has been done but unless the fallout is big enough the morons who inflicted it won't notice and will go along believing that our destiny is to always rule the waves.....
She articulates the views of the 48% at best. I really do sometimes wish for a second referendum just so you lot can hector the electorate, call them a bunch of morons, and scare them with project fear mark II. The look on your faces when you lose a second time will be priceless.
Sensible, rational and trustworthy they may be, but I don't think they've fully thought it through. Most of the very menial jobs (potato picking, etc) are now carried out almost exclusively by foreigners rather than Brits. Yes, the very few Brits that still work in these areas are likely earning less money than otherwise, but the much larger number of Brits who would otherwise be doing these menial jobs are, instead, earning more money doing better-paying work. So, on average, Brits are almost certainly earning more as a consequence of foreigners taking over the more menial jobs.
I don't think that's how supply and demand works. More supply at the bottom end of the salary gradient doesn't automatically create more jobs higher up; it just creates downward pressure on wages. A few people who would otherwise have found employment in manual labour might be incentivised to seek out skilled work at higher pay, but for the majority of those affected it's a choice between unemployment, and working at an "artificially" reduced rate.
If that were true, there would be a positive correlation between immigration and Brit unemployment. There isn't, because supply and demand doesn't work for labour as it does for widgets.
It's certainly a more complicated market (for starters, people aren't commodities (and therefore also aren't interchangeable) - so unskilled immigration would only affect the unskilled part of the labour market).
But the jobs market elsewhere doing well due to demand-based factors doesn't mean it wouldn't have done better without the additional supply side shock - in particular it's really wage growth that should be more strongly correlated with immigration, and that's been weak for years (again, compounded by myriad other factors). It's still something of a mystery to me why real wage growth isn't stronger, given that we have nearly full employment.
Sensible, rational and trustworthy they may be, but I don't think they've fully thought it through. Most of the very menial jobs (potato picking, etc) are now carried out almost exclusively by foreigners rather than Brits. Yes, the very few Brits that still work in these areas are likely earning less money than otherwise, but the much larger number of Brits who would otherwise be doing these menial jobs are, instead, earning more money doing better-paying work. So, on average, Brits are almost certainly earning more as a consequence of foreigners taking over the more menial jobs.
I don't think that's how supply and demand works. More supply at the bottom end of the salary gradient doesn't automatically create more jobs higher up; it just creates downward pressure on wages. A few people who would otherwise have found employment in manual labour might be incentivised to seek out skilled work at higher pay, but for the majority of those affected it's a choice between unemployment, and working at an "artificially" reduced rate.
If that were true, there would be a positive correlation between immigration and Brit unemployment. There isn't, because supply and demand doesn't work for labour as it does for widgets.
There is arguably a correlation between increased immigration and reduced wages for low skilled jobs
The news that Labour will vote for the Cooper-Boles amendment while hard line Brexiteers like Redwood say they will vote against the Brady amendment means the former rather than the latter is more likely to pass and an extension to Article 50 will replace a proposal to remove the backstop from the Deal as the next step.
If the Grieve amendment also passes giving over Tuesdays to MPs Brexit proposals tonight will mark the start of transfer of control over Brexit from the executive to the legislature with BINO the likeliest outcome as a result
Not quite. If Cooper passes it gives the government until 26th Feb before a decision which labour are saying they want to truncate the delay to 3 months.
Just confirmed by labour they have agreed with Cooper that the delay will be until no later than 1st July
The news that Labour will vote for the Cooper-Boles amendment while hard line Brexiteers like Redwood say they will vote against the Brady amendment means the former rather than the latter is more likely to pass and an extension to Article 50 will replace a proposal to remove the backstop from the Deal as the next step.
If the Grieve amendment also passes giving over Tuesdays to MPs Brexit proposals tonight will mark the start of transfer of control over Brexit from the executive to the legislature with BINO the likeliest outcome as a result
Not quite. If Cooper passes it gives the government until 26th Feb before a decision which labour are saying they want to truncate the delay to 3 months.
Just confirmed by labour they have agreed with Cooper that the delay will be until no later than 1st July
Sensible, rational and trustworthy they may be, but I don't think they've fully thought it through. Most of the very menial jobs (potato picking, etc) are now carried out almost exclusively by foreigners rather than Brits. Yes, the very few Brits that still work in these areas are likely earning less money than otherwise, but the much larger number of Brits who would otherwise be doing these menial jobs are, instead, earning more money doing better-paying work. So, on average, Brits are almost certainly earning more as a consequence of foreigners taking over the more menial jobs.
I don't think that's how supply and demand works. More supply at the bottom end of the salary gradient doesn't automatically create more jobs higher up; it just creates downward pressure on wages. A few people who would otherwise have found employment in manual labour might be incentivised to seek out skilled work at higher pay, but for the majority of those affected it's a choice between unemployment, and working at an "artificially" reduced rate.
This is exactly what the research shows, but only in reference to the pay of *earlier low-skilled immigrants*. Immigration doesn't usually have that effect on the wages of non-immigrants. This is because natives and immigrants aren't direct substitutes: The jobs that immigrants can do efficiently to do are subtly (or sometimes unsubtly) different from jobs that non-immigrants can do efficiently. Although there's *some* overlap, the immigrants also make economic activity viable that wouldn't otherwise have been, and that creates jobs for non-immigrants, many of them better than the ones they'd have had before.
To do the analogy with widgets, you don't want lots of supply of directly competing products, but you do want supply of *complementary* products. For example, if you're making wine glasses, you don't want to have to compete with cheaper wine glasses. But you totally do benefit from cheaper *wine*, because that's complementary, not competitive: The more people can afford wine, the more people will want to buy wine glasses.
Interesting. I suspect the devil lies in the detail though - more au pairs in London is great because it allows (for example) parents of small children to re-enter the workforce and earn more than they're spending on childcare. On the other hand, an influx of builders and plumbers just drives down the going rate for the existing builders and plumbers in the labour market.
The news that Labour will vote for the Cooper-Boles amendment while hard line Brexiteers like Redwood say they will vote against the Brady amendment means the former rather than the latter is more likely to pass and an extension to Article 50 will replace a proposal to remove the backstop from the Deal as the next step.
If the Grieve amendment also passes giving over Tuesdays to MPs Brexit proposals tonight will mark the start of transfer of control over Brexit from the executive to the legislature with BINO the likeliest outcome as a result
Not quite. If Cooper passes it gives the government until 26th Feb before a decision which labour are saying they want to truncate the delay to 3 months.
Just confirmed by labour they have agreed with Cooper that the delay will be until no later than 1st July
Yep, and these are the goons that tell us they are upstanding patriotic types; while aligning themselves with, UKIP/BNP, Communists, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, all of whom have a strong interest in Britain maintaining it's position as a beacon of liberal democracy!
EDIT: No, don't worry, I can see that there is no conflict. So if they are both passed, they are both passed.
If they're both passed, by definition there are MPs who voted for (or signalled support by abstention) both. So we just have to track them down, and politely ask them exactly what they thought they were doing, and what they actually want to happen.
The German armed forces are struggling to recruit soldiers, they lack key equipment and in Afghanistan they are using civilian contractors to ferry soldies as they cant maintain their own helicopters.
All NATO forces in Afghanistan have always used contractor operated Mil-8/17 deathtraps since the start of pleasantries in 2001. Usually for a lack of crews rather than aircraft.
The German armed forces are struggling to recruit soldiers, they lack key equipment and in Afghanistan they are using civilian contractors to ferry soldies as they cant maintain their own helicopters.
All NATO forces in Afghanistan have always used contractor operated Mil-8/17 deathtraps since the start of pleasantries in 2001. Usually for a lack of crews rather than aircraft.
Alanbrooke doesn't like the facts to get in the way of an opportunity to mock the damned furriners, particularly the Jerries, by jingo!
The news that Labour will vote for the Cooper-Boles amendment while hard line Brexiteers like Redwood say they will vote against the Brady amendment means the former rather than the latter is more likely to pass and an extension to Article 50 will replace a proposal to remove the backstop from the Deal as the next step.
If the Grieve amendment also passes giving over Tuesdays to MPs Brexit proposals tonight will mark the start of transfer of control over Brexit from the executive to the legislature with BINO the likeliest outcome as a result
Not quite. If Cooper passes it gives the government until 26th Feb before a decision which labour are saying they want to truncate the delay to 3 months.
Just confirmed by labour they have agreed with Cooper that the delay will be until no later than 1st July
Not enough for a referendum, I think.
Enough for permanent Customs Union though
It's just very difficult to understand the thinking behind that timing.
Restarting negotiations from scratch on a new basis, approval of the new withdrawal agreement by the Commons, and the necessary legislation, all to be done by 1 July?
Maybe it's not impossible, but if I were an EU head of government I'd be bewildered by the idea.
I think it wrong to assume Biden is not running. Harris has made a good start, but she’s adopted a whole set of policies, which could either be a smart move to tie up the progressive wing of the party, or prove an early hostage to fortune and open a gao for a centrist ‘uniter’ (despite her current efforts to present herself as such).
The German armed forces are struggling to recruit soldiers, they lack key equipment and in Afghanistan they are using civilian contractors to ferry soldies as they cant maintain their own helicopters.
All NATO forces in Afghanistan have always used contractor operated Mil-8/17 deathtraps since the start of pleasantries in 2001. Usually for a lack of crews rather than aircraft.
The news that Labour will vote for the Cooper-Boles amendment while hard line Brexiteers like Redwood say they will vote against the Brady amendment means the former rather than the latter is more likely to pass and an extension to Article 50 will replace a proposal to remove the backstop from the Deal as the next step.
If the Grieve amendment also passes giving over Tuesdays to MPs Brexit proposals tonight will mark the start of transfer of control over Brexit from the executive to the legislature with BINO the likeliest outcome as a result
Not quite. If Cooper passes it gives the government until 26th Feb before a decision which labour are saying they want to truncate the delay to 3 months.
Just confirmed by labour they have agreed with Cooper that the delay will be until no later than 1st July
Not enough for a referendum, I think.
Enough for permanent Customs Union though
It's just very difficult to understand the thinking behind that timing.
Restarting negotiations from scratch on a new basis, approval of the new withdrawal agreement by the Commons, and the necessary legislation, all to be done by 1 July?
Maybe it's not impossible, but if I were an EU head of government I'd be bewildered by the idea.
Juncker said at the weekend he would back a renegotiation based on a permanent Customs Union but not one based on no backstop
The German armed forces are struggling to recruit soldiers, they lack key equipment and in Afghanistan they are using civilian contractors to ferry soldies as they cant maintain their own helicopters.
All NATO forces in Afghanistan have always used contractor operated Mil-8/17 deathtraps since the start of pleasantries in 2001. Usually for a lack of crews rather than aircraft.
German defence minister doesnt think they should
Well, if she buys a shitload more NH90s and qualifies a shitload more crew then not using contractiors will be a viable option five years hence.
I suspect this part of her attempt at becoming NATO SecGen which is doomed as Trump fucking despises her and the SecGen is always the Americans' choice.
The four freedoms must be inextricably linked according to the EU, but that is a political decision. That is the issue we ought to be concentrating on.
Just as Brexiteers whine that Remoaners should "embrace the opportunities of Brexit", so Brexiteers should realise the four freedoms are a key benefit of the EU, not an "issue"
I understand that Leave voters were unhappy about immigration, and unscrupulous charlatans campaigned on the basis that leaving the EU would fix it, but running out of food and medicine will not help those voters (or solve the immigration concerns)
Telling people over and over that they benefit from freedom of movement when their own experience clearly taught them otherwise isn't just the reason why remain lost, it's the reason why project fear simply didn't stick then, and still isn't sticking now.
People believe what they can see with their own eyes. And what they see is the fact that they can't get a doctor's appointment for weeks, their schools are full of children who don't speak English as a first language, people from eastern eurpoe are crowding four, eight, twelve to a house - and so on and so forth. Ignore the macro effect of immigration on GDP or the tax take or anything so abstract, they do not feel that they, personally, have benefited.
And yet remainers keep on parroting the same tired lines. Freedom of movement is good! You benefit from it! Yes, you can go and work in Spain/Italy/Germany now! Etc. When what most people want, in these lean times, is a government that concentrates on fixing the problems at home and makes their sh*tty lives marginally better.
Freedom of movement increases competition for jobs, state services and housing at the lowest rungs of society and remainers' utter inability to acknowledge this leads people to doubt them on everything else.
Why did areas with few immigrants vote more heavily Leave than areas with more?
And why do Remainers worry more about their finances than Leavers?
On average, they're wealthier.
Do you know, I'm not sure of that. Leave have a shit-ton of poor people, a bulge of retireds with above average wealth, and a long tail of ultra-wealthy. Remain have people from ok to wealthy. It's not intuitively obvious which average is greater.
The German armed forces are struggling to recruit soldiers, they lack key equipment and in Afghanistan they are using civilian contractors to ferry soldies as they cant maintain their own helicopters.
All NATO forces in Afghanistan have always used contractor operated Mil-8/17 deathtraps since the start of pleasantries in 2001. Usually for a lack of crews rather than aircraft.
German defence minister doesnt think they should
Well, if she buys a shitload more NH90s and qualifies a shitload more crew then not using contractiors will be a viable option five years hence.
I suspect this part of her attempt at becoming NATO SecGen which is doomed as Trump fucking despises her and the SecGen is always the Americans' choice.
actually its a guy called Bartels who has done a defence review for van Leyen
his comments sound like reading a review of the MoD - bad procurement, huge unaccountable bureacracy, penny pinching front line services and huge gaps in capability. The navy came out worst of the three services just to cheer you up, Bartels has recommended it should not be deployed anywhere until it has reach a basic level of capability.
Comments
If the Grieve amendment also passes giving over Tuesdays to MPs Brexit proposals tonight will mark the start of transfer of control over Brexit from the executive to the legislature with BINO the likeliest outcome as a result
Going from the most unrestricted multinational trade zone in the world, to WTO terms, overnight, would be a bloody big problem.
Biden leads on 9%, Harris second on 8%, Sanders 3rd with 4% (4% also say they would vote to re elect Trump), O'Rourke is next on 3% and Warren joint last on 2% with Michelle Obama
Just confirmed by labour they have agreed with Cooper that the delay will be until no later than 1st July
Sounds like there will be a couple of close votes later, but all the amendments are rubbish, if these are as far as we can go, then we are in deep trouble, amendments to revoke, delay for X are the only things worth bothering with now.
Gonna be a hell of a lot of dead unicorns mid April unless something big happens...
EDIT: No, don't worry, I can see that there is no conflict. So if they are both passed, they are both passed.
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/wehrbeauftragter-zur-bundeswehr-es-ist-noch-winter-16013967.html
Going to go ahead and suggest we don't take that one tooseriously.
David Clark
@David_K_Clark
The effect of passing both the Cooper and Brady amendments tonight is that the UK would be asking the EU for nine more months to talk to itself about things that are not going to happen. We've had enough of that already.
0 replies . 2 retweets 0 likes
By voting down the Deal and Brady amendment the ERG are helping ensure BINO is the likeliest outcome, not No Deal
But the jobs market elsewhere doing well due to demand-based factors doesn't mean it wouldn't have done better without the additional supply side shock - in particular it's really wage growth that should be more strongly correlated with immigration, and that's been weak for years (again, compounded by myriad other factors). It's still something of a mystery to me why real wage growth isn't stronger, given that we have nearly full employment.
One more who thinks No Deal=Remaining.
https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090231798443982848
Now 3 months i think
She would be a PINO able only to BINO.
Pointless position to be in.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/18/can-article-50-be-extended-six-key-brexit-questions
NEW THREAD
Restarting negotiations from scratch on a new basis, approval of the new withdrawal agreement by the Commons, and the necessary legislation, all to be done by 1 July?
Maybe it's not impossible, but if I were an EU head of government I'd be bewildered by the idea.
I suspect this part of her attempt at becoming NATO SecGen which is doomed as Trump fucking despises her and the SecGen is always the Americans' choice.
his comments sound like reading a review of the MoD - bad procurement, huge unaccountable bureacracy, penny pinching front line services and huge gaps in capability. The navy came out worst of the three services just to cheer you up, Bartels has recommended it should not be deployed anywhere until it has reach a basic level of capability.
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article187846912/Wehrbeauftragter-kritisiert-Lage-der-Bundeswehr-nach-wie-vor-mangelhaft.html