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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Kamala Harris makes strong start to her WH2020 campaign and is
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Kamala Harris makes strong start to her WH2020 campaign and is already attracting endorsements
Even though we are a year off the first WH2020 primaries the former Attorney General for California and now Senator, Kamala Harris, is now top slot in the betting and in pole position for the Democratic party nomination.
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https://www.twitter.com/WillisJermane/status/1089983025713213440
It would make a mess if you did it in the house
One can make valid arguments for both staying put and leaving, but simply extolling the manifest perfection of the EU won't wash.
https://twitter.com/jezawatson/status/1089231113866932226
Have you ever seen OGH and Ivanka in the same room together?
"Call a referendum, you must be mad." There was a feeling that Cammo brought it on himself by consulting the people.
Politicians are public servants? Not in Europe, they're not. Public opinion is something to ignore.
Harris has made a good start, but she’s adopted a whole set of policies, which could either be a smart move to tie up the progressive wing of the party, or prove an early hostage to fortune and open a gao for a centrist ‘uniter’ (despite her current efforts to present herself as such).
Biden is certainly still teasing a run:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/28/joe-biden-2020-1133200
I could have lived with the existing settlement or Cameron’s deal but I didn’t trust the EU not to continue to push for aggregation of power to Brussels. It’s the nature of politicians to want more power for themselves.
We’ve seen this with noises on QMV on tax policy and an EU army.
https://ballotpedia.org/History_of_Donald_Trump's_political_donations
The ERG will say No.
Sarah Wollaston will demand a second referendum.
Corbyn will demand a magical Brexit.
The government will be defeated on a procedural amendment, which kicks the can down the road.
The four freedoms must be inextricably linked according to the EU, but that is a political decision. That is the issue we ought to be concentrating on.
But that’s at the root of many of the problems
Just have to give backing to May’s B or C and see what it actually is. It’s such a tease. like Burlesque.
Bwaaa na naaaaa, bwaaa na naaaaa…
Bwaaa na naaaaa, BWAA NA NAAAAA Na
Bomp ch ch, bomp ch ch, bomp ch ch, bomp ch ch
https://www.shethepeople.org/poll
Takeaway - don’t put any money on Sanders.
If Harris is a black Hillary, she'll still win provided she manages to avoid insulting half the electorate and throwing resources at states she's guaranteed to win whilst denying them to contested states.
I liked the suggestion make by someone on here the other day, that we should have a general election with the 650 incumbents all barred from standing. Time for a peaceful revolution.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/the-brexit-threat-hanging-over-startups-in-the-uk-tech-sector
But if he stands he probably wins the nomination. A genuine elder statesman whom Trump would struggle to deal with as an opponent.
In some respects Trump would love to face Harris, a liberal elitist from California, a state where Hillary won a landslide anyway, when what the Democrats should be doing is looking for a candidate who can win the key rustbelt swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania they have to win to win the Electoral College. Someone like Klobuchar or Brown have already proved they can win in the Midwest, Harris has a lot of work to do to show she would be a better choice to take on Trump if the Democrats are actually serious about trying to win
Dr Wollaston completely lost it yesterday, saying that the WA could never be amended, despite it being massively voted down last week - including by herself - and therefore dead in its current form.
Some of the ERG types also lost it, it seems there’s a few diehards who will only agree to no deal.
Corbyn I still can’t work out. At some point he’s either going to have to come off the fence, or be held responsible in the eyes of his supporters for perpetuating no deal.
"knowing they are inextricably linked."
They are inextricably linked only because the aim is a unified European state. That is the truth that dare not speak its name. You can't have boundaries within a single country
The UK is a magnet for some Eastern European countries. The newcomers work hard and they'll work long hours - Of course, the farmers like them. Pretending they don't undercut wages is a silly game.
And the government is always caught by surprise … "Oh, don't worry, not many will come." Keith Vaz is still at Heathrow waiting for the second Albanian to arrive.
Are you surprised the electorate get cynical?
I understand that Leave voters were unhappy about immigration, and unscrupulous charlatans campaigned on the basis that leaving the EU would fix it, but running out of food and medicine will not help those voters (or solve the immigration concerns)
If the Democrats are not careful Harris could be Kerry 2 not even Hillary 2!
They are a key demographic in the party - not simply as a voting block, but in terms of engagement and influence. A candidate who actively turns them off - Sanders - isn't going to get nominated.
Plus Sanders did far better in the North East and Midwest and West in 2016 where he won 22 of his 23 states than the South where the black vote is strongest and most influential in Democratic primaries and he only won just 1 state, Oklahoma. Hillary swept the South, including a landslide in South Carolina
https://www.gov.uk/school-attendance-absence/legal-action-to-enforce-school-attendance
People believe what they can see with their own eyes. And what they see is the fact that they can't get a doctor's appointment for weeks, their schools are full of children who don't speak English as a first language, people from eastern eurpoe are crowding four, eight, twelve to a house - and so on and so forth. Ignore the macro effect of immigration on GDP or the tax take or anything so abstract, they do not feel that they, personally, have benefited.
And yet remainers keep on parroting the same tired lines. Freedom of movement is good! You benefit from it! Yes, you can go and work in Spain/Italy/Germany now! Etc. When what most people want, in these lean times, is a government that concentrates on fixing the problems at home and makes their sh*tty lives marginally better.
Freedom of movement increases competition for jobs, state services and housing at the lowest rungs of society and remainers' utter inability to acknowledge this leads people to doubt them on everything else.
My objection is to the persistent claim the EU has had no need to do anything but wave us off. If they wanted a deal they needed to do more than that. And to be clear I think they did. Not as much as I'd like. But Mr punters point is one of several EU defences which if it were true suggests the EU have not operated in good faith and have not meant what they said this while time.
That said, while the UK plan now is silly it's also not quite as unreasonable as you and the EU pretend it is. Parliament won't back the deal. The EU keeps demanding we tell them what we want. This would do that. With a demand they wont accept which makes it silly, but off The deal wont pass of course a side will try for changed.
I don't think there's time for that but The EU are being deliberately obtuse in pretending bsfflement that the agreement is not being passed. They know parliament had to agree it.
(major road extensions notwithstanding)
Any civil servant who has been in post long enough to know where the coffee machine is would have to go too.
But damn it, then the power in the land would vest in quangos.....
It's a blame shift.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ConHome/status/1090164974427795456
Picking another liberal elitist like Kerry is not going to win the Democrats the Electoral College against Trump
Voting leave will do nothing to lessen immigration from the Indian sub continent, but that doesn't mean there isn't a correlation between areas voting leave and those of significant Asian population.