On Topic. Totally agree David. Cameron has unsettled this nation once and for all, tribalizing EU membership in British politics, hastening break up of UK, and as time passes in the post brexit world, increasing strain and both Labour and Tory parties to split over what EU policies to put in future manifestos, so probably destroyed both those parties and possibly first past the post. Nice work Cammo!
I think Cam got it wrong by underestimating the extent EU membership was in “relationship” in minds of voters with what they don’t like, the more negative impacts of globalisation, disconnect between political elites (London) and their own run down communities, immigration, the scary slip to post industrial society.
Those future manifestos wont have promises for another in out referendum, no GE promises for a People’s Vote, once The Murrison Amendment passes this week the People’s Vote will be dead. Instead we will return to closer ties with EU with salami tactics. Starting with CU.
First time I heard salami tactics in Yes Minister I loved it, because its just so true about how to actually get your way. Machiavellian, but not strictly in that political sense of power, almost admitting lack of power over a situation. More like how Gandalf didn’t unsettle Beorn by having dwarfs roll up gradually, not on mass.
For example. When we brexit without CU this spring early summer, how long until we are back in the customs union? Nothing to stop parties adding this to their GE manifesto’s. A majority, perhaps plurality of voters would be in favour, so its not going to harm anyone’s chances of winning a GE with that in their manifesto. But I cant see it in any Conservative manifesto any time soon, so there’s clear water between them and other parties. It would be interesting to see on what grounds the Torys fight it, they cant use disrespecting the 2016 vote because we will have brexited based on 2016 vote, hence whole new ball game, fair play for parties to add it to their manifestos and fight GE on signing up to the CU.
I reckon not much more than 8 years, that’s two GE, perhaps even less.
Any betting markets on what point Britain signs up to CU, EEA etc? The longer odds will be the bet we place today, VFM the long haul?
I really hope you are right. I've believed since the Referendum that eventually the Leave promises.... easiest deals in history and so on....... would prove to be piecrust and so it's turning out.
On Topic. Totally agree David. Cameron has unsettled this nation once and for all, tribalizing EU membership in British politics, hastening break up of UK, and as time passes in the post brexit world, increasing strain and both Labour and Tory parties to split over what EU policies to put in future manifestos, so probably destroyed both those parties and possibly first past the post. Nice work Cammo!
I think Cam got it wrong by underestimating the extent EU membership was in “relationship” in minds of voters with what they don’t like, the more negative impacts of globalisation, disconnect between political elites (London) and their own run down communities, immigration, the scary slip to post industrial society.
Where Cameron really got it wrong was in the timing of the referendum. Six years into austerity with real wages falling was always going to provoke the view that a previous poster posted earlier this morning - voting Leave was a free hit against the government, because Remain was widely expected to win anyway. I just wonder how many people took that view and voted accordingly. I know of several in my circle of friends and family that took that view and voted accordingly. Probably enough to tip the result Leave's way nationwide I would have thought.
Even though he obviously had to honour his manifesto commitment, there was no requirement to do it almost immediately. He could have waited until the economic benefits of austerity had materialized and austerity measures had ended
Thanks as always for the thread, David. I do agree we have turned a page in our history - our rapprochement with Europe lasted 60 years (from Suez to the Referendum). The answer to our post-Imperial destiny seemed clear in the late 50s - it seems much less clear now. Do we cuddle up even more closely to a Washington whose interests and concerns are increasingly focused on the Pacific rather than the Atlantic or do we set ourselves as a genuinely independently-minded outward-looking nation trying to build a functioning nation state model for the 21st Century?
You might as well try to build a steam engine for 21st century.
Do you know how a nuclear power plant works? It’s a steam engine.
Yeah, but I don't think the blame-the-EU stuff is really going to work. Most sane people accept we decided to leave the Club, not the other way round.
Btw, if you don't fancy Singapore or Caracas on Thames, have you considered moving closer to the River Lee? It's quite nice around Stratford now. (That's the one in East London, not the tourist hell-hole in Warwickshire.)
I'm effectively at East Ham-near-the Creek, that's the mighty Barking Creek which has its own guillotine flood barrier. Mrs Stodge is hugely impressed that will stop tidal flooding from the Thames - I haven't yet told her all the water coming down from the River Lea will have nowhere to go.
Corbyn planned a tour of the marginals following the VONC. I conclude from this that he thought he would win it, believes his own hype, is out of his depth and has no idea what to do now.
He is not the Machiavelli that SO makes him out to be. He is making it up as he goes.
What that means for us is unpredictability.
He has a certain cunning. He 's persuaded both Leavers and Remainers that he's on their side.
Jonathan is quite wrong in thinking if a Vanilla Europhile like Balls or Cooper or whoever were in charge, Labour would be better placed. They would not.
Those future manifestos wont have promises for another in out referendum, no GE promises for a People’s Vote, once The Murrison Amendment passes this week the People’s Vote will be dead. Instead we will return to closer ties with EU with salami tactics. Starting with CU.
First time I heard salami tactics in Yes Minister I loved it, because its just so true about how to actually get your way. Machiavellian, but not strictly in that political sense of power, almost admitting lack of power over a situation. More like how Gandalf didn’t unsettle Beorn by having dwarfs roll up gradually, not on mass.
For example. When we brexit without CU this spring early summer, how long until we are back in the customs union? Nothing to stop parties adding this to their GE manifesto’s. A majority, perhaps plurality of voters would be in favour, so its not going to harm anyone’s chances of winning a GE with that in their manifesto. But I cant see it in any Conservative manifesto any time soon, so there’s clear water between them and other parties. It would be interesting to see on what grounds the Torys fight it, they cant use disrespecting the 2016 vote because we will have brexited based on 2016 vote, hence whole new ball game, fair play for parties to add it to their manifestos and fight GE on signing up to the CU.
I reckon not much more than 8 years, that’s two GE, perhaps even less.
Any betting markets on what point Britain signs up to CU, EEA etc? The longer odds will be the bet we place today, VFM the long haul?
That's one way back in. One piece at a time like the Johnny Cash song. Or it could be the price for a coalition with the Lib Dems in a hung parliament. Or Labour could win a massive landslide with an ambitious programme with rejoining as just one bit. Or a military crisis could oblige the Tories to come to temporary understanding. Or a run on the pound could leave the govt with no choice but to agree to closer integration in return for support.
And perhaps the biggest but least tangible of all, Europe will just look a lot more appealing. I was against joining the EU as a teenager because in the early seventies when I visited Calais and Dieppe they just looked like dumps compared to southern England. The comparison is much more favourable to Europe nowadays, and every year the continent has better economic growth the more attractive it will become to rejoin the club.
Indeed it does, over the next few weeks we are likely to have voted on extending Cooper's extending Article 50, Spelman and Dromey's block No Deal, Labour's permanent Customs Union plan and Boles and Kinnock's Norway plus stay in the single market plan. If those all fail an EUref2 Remain v Deal referendum then comes into play and will likely be put forward and that also increases the chances of the Deal again. Only if all that fails to we reach No Deal
If groups are going to campaign to Remain or to Rejoin, they need first to work out what Britain's European's strategy should be, as I have argued. And be absolutely clear-sighted and honest about what the EU is and is aiming for, and what that means for Britain, both the costs and benefits.
Without this I fear any pro-joining the EU campaign will be doomed to failure. Or, even if successful, to endless argument once in, much as in the last 40 years.
"The Countdown co-presenter Rachel Riley has revealed she is to be given extra security on the Channel 4 quiz show after being targeted with online abuse over her criticism of antisemitism within the Labour party.
The Oxford mathematics graduate said she had been targeted by Labour supporters on Twitter for her criticisms of the party and its leader, Jeremy Corbyn."
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
The halfwits cannot even decide whether to come out and yet the halfwits on here are wittering about how long it will be till England rejoins. Methinks JRM is saner than many on here.
Would you say they are more or less of a halfwit than those Scots who felt it was a great idea to vote No to stay in the EU when a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy?
Can't remember Better Together & their various finger puppets ever mentioning that 'a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy'. Otoh...
Well a lot of us in England never thought the Tories would ever go ahead with the referendum. Or once they called it, that they would lose it. There were even some of us - or me at least - who thought the chances of leave winning were so slim they considered voting leave just to give Cameron a kick for wasting everyone's time.
Up till about 4am on the night of the count, I thought Remain would win.
I was at the Luton count, and we had little information about what was happening elsewhere. I knew we'd carried Luton, but I thought the margin was about 54/46, rather than the actual 57/43. I also knew Remain had won very big in Wandsworth, so it wasn't till I switched on my car radio that I realised Leave was winning.
We were ahead of the game on PB.
TV had an obsession that the Manchester result was going to be important and ignored 40k+ leads for Leave in a succession of Midland and Northern towns.
There really wasn't any doubt after the Sheffield result but the TV stations still took another hour to call the result.
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
Not sure about Schengen but nobody has any interest in making unwilling countries with weirdly divergent economies join the Euro. They've got enough problems with the countries that wanted to be in it.
If the Euro and Schengen was a requirement of rejoinining the EU at most we would rejoin the Single Market and Customs Union not the full EU
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
The halfwits cannot even decide whether to come out and yet the halfwits on here are wittering about how long it will be till England rejoins. Methinks JRM is saner than many on here.
Would you say they are more or less of a halfwit than those Scots who felt it was a great idea to vote No to stay in the EU when a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy?
Can't remember Better Together & their various finger puppets ever mentioning that 'a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy'. Otoh...
Well a lot of us in England never thought the Tories would ever go ahead with the referendum. Or once they called it, that they would lose it. There were even some of us - or me at least - who thought the chances of leave winning were so slim they considered voting leave just to give Cameron a kick for wasting everyone's time.
Up till about 4am on the night of the count, I thought Remain would win.
I was at the Luton count, and we had little information about what was happening elsewhere. I knew we'd carried Luton, but I thought the margin was about 54/46, rather than the actual 57/43. I also knew Remain had won very big in Wandsworth, so it wasn't till I switched on my car radio that I realised Leave was winning.
We were ahead of the game on PB.
TV had an obsession that the Manchester result was going to be important and ignored 40k+ leads for Leave in a succession of Midland and Northern towns.
There really wasn't any doubt after the Sheffield result but the TV stations still took another hour to call the result.
If groups are going to campaign to Remain or to Rejoin, they need first to work out what Britain's European's strategy should be, as I have argued. And be absolutely clear-sighted and honest about what the EU is and is aiming for, and what that means for Britain, both the costs and benefits.
Without this I fear any pro-joining the EU campaign will be doomed to failure. Or, even if successful, to endless argument once in, much as in the last 40 years.
Absolutely. The terms on which we would seek to rejoin need to be made absolutely clear and agreed with the EU in advance. Once that is done, any party winning a parliamentary majority with that in their manifesto can seek to put us back in the EU.
However, the terms of rejoining need to be clear - not just the Euro and/or Schengen but the amount the UK would be expected to contribute to the EU from year one.
"The Countdown co-presenter Rachel Riley has revealed she is to be given extra security on the Channel 4 quiz show after being targeted with online abuse over her criticism of antisemitism within the Labour party.
The Oxford mathematics graduate said she had been targeted by Labour supporters on Twitter for her criticisms of the party and its leader, Jeremy Corbyn."
My god.... does this mean we think Spain will invade Gibraltar..... The EU might struggle to get to the Falklands though
We are weaker outside the EU so the threat from Argentina becomes greater. As to Gib - well what could we do if Spain simply marches in on the 29th of March? We can hardly go to war with them.
"The Countdown co-presenter Rachel Riley has revealed she is to be given extra security on the Channel 4 quiz show after being targeted with online abuse over her criticism of antisemitism within the Labour party.
The Oxford mathematics graduate said she had been targeted by Labour supporters on Twitter for her criticisms of the party and its leader, Jeremy Corbyn."
Plus Fiona Bruce having to take similar measures and Laura k in previous years...and yet a 1000s of column inches were spent on the twat in a yellow jacket shouting nazi.
My god.... does this mean we think Spain will invade Gibraltar..... The EU might struggle to get to the Falklands though
We are weaker outside the EU so the threat from Argentina becomes greater. As to Gib - well what could we do if Spain simply marches in on the 29th of March? We can hardly go to war with them.
Yes that EU military might will make all the difference............
Explain to me how Brexit increases the threat from Agentina?
Brexit makes no difference to the scenarios you outline.
Marina Hyde is absolutely right. Save for one thing. He is not an aristocrat. Not even a plastic one. Not even close. Just a jumped up money trader who is trying to ape what he thinks are aristocratic values. And failing.
Indeed it does, over the next few weeks we are likely to have voted on extending Cooper's extending Article 50, Spelman and Dromey's block No Deal, Labour's permanent Customs Union plan and Boles and Kinnock's Norway plus stay in the single market plan. If those all fail an EUref2 Remain v Deal referendum then comes into play and will likely be put forward and that also increases the chances of the Deal again. Only if all that fails to we reach No Deal
Jezza will do his best to make sure we get to your final No Deal point.
The chaos of a conflict over Gibraltar is unimaginable. Makes Brexit look like a walk in the park. Imagine all the British Nationals in Spain heading home.
Labour will become a Rejoin party once Corbyn stands down. Not before.
That surely depends on who his successor is. If it is someone from the Far Left I don't think so.
If Labour fail to oppose Brexit and back EUref2 they would slump to just 26% compared to 43% for the Tories as Remainers move to the LDs offering the Tories the prospect of a 1983 style landslide on virtually the same voteshare as 2017
Labour will become a Rejoin party once Corbyn stands down. Not before.
That surely depends on who his successor is. If it is someone from the Far Left I don't think so.
This conversation reminds me a lot of Tories talking about potential Labour numbers for the vote and being out by a decent margin. SO just attaches whatever he dislikes most to Corbyn and goodness is obviously enacted when he is replaced whilst you have some mystical image of the 'far left' and what the rest of the party believes....
Many of the MPs that are against a 2nd referendum are centrist/progress types. Clive Lewis who is a left wing Corbyn supporter is a supporter of a second referendum.
Taking it down to the left are anti EU and the centrists are pro EU or Labour all wants the EU badly but evil Mr Corbyn is holding them back belongs in the daily mail rather than any actual serious thinking.
On rejoin itself I'm not sure it is much of a goer, which is why people are fighting so hard to have the referendum IMO. At the very least my opinion is it only becomes possible if Brexit goes very badly which obviously isn't a desirable outcome or over the longer term maybe a decade or so.
Indeed it does, over the next few weeks we are likely to have voted on extending Cooper's extending Article 50, Spelman and Dromey's block No Deal, Labour's permanent Customs Union plan and Boles and Kinnock's Norway plus stay in the single market plan. If those all fail an EUref2 Remain v Deal referendum then comes into play and will likely be put forward and that also increases the chances of the Deal again. Only if all that fails to we reach No Deal
Jezza will do his best to make sure we get to your final No Deal point.
If he has not backed EUref2 beforehand though and tried to oppose Brexit allowing No Deal will end in disaster for Corbyn as posted below and be a huge boost to the LDs who could see an SDP style surge
Indeed it does, over the next few weeks we are likely to have voted on extending Cooper's extending Article 50, Spelman and Dromey's block No Deal, Labour's permanent Customs Union plan and Boles and Kinnock's Norway plus stay in the single market plan. If those all fail an EUref2 Remain v Deal referendum then comes into play and will likely be put forward and that also increases the chances of the Deal again. Only if all that fails to we reach No Deal
Jezza will do his best to make sure we get to your final No Deal point.
If we get no deal it will be because the Conservatives wanted it or wouldn't stop it. If blaming Corbyn for it makes you feel better about voting for no deal with your Tory vote don't let me stop you though.
My god.... does this mean we think Spain will invade Gibraltar..... The EU might struggle to get to the Falklands though
We are weaker outside the EU so the threat from Argentina becomes greater. As to Gib - well what could we do if Spain simply marches in on the 29th of March? We can hardly go to war with them.
Indeed it does, over the next few weeks we are likely to have voted on extending Cooper's extending Article 50, Spelman and Dromey's block No Deal, Labour's permanent Customs Union plan and Boles and Kinnock's Norway plus stay in the single market plan. If those all fail an EUref2 Remain v Deal referendum then comes into play and will likely be put forward and that also increases the chances of the Deal again. Only if all that fails to we reach No Deal
Jezza will do his best to make sure we get to your final No Deal point.
If he has not backed EUref2 beforehand though and tried to oppose Brexit allowing No Deal will end in disaster for Corbyn as posted below and be a huge boost to the LDs who could see an SDP style surge
That might help make up for having to live off rat and use candles.
My god.... does this mean we think Spain will invade Gibraltar..... The EU might struggle to get to the Falklands though
We are weaker outside the EU so the threat from Argentina becomes greater. As to Gib - well what could we do if Spain simply marches in on the 29th of March? We can hardly go to war with them.
Of course we can go to War with them if they invade our territory and the UK military is still bigger and more effective than the Spanish military.
Argentina invaded the Falklands when we were in the EEC, fortunately the Argentine President is now a moderate not a military dictator as then
My god.... does this mean we think Spain will invade Gibraltar..... The EU might struggle to get to the Falklands though
We are weaker outside the EU so the threat from Argentina becomes greater. As to Gib - well what could we do if Spain simply marches in on the 29th of March? We can hardly go to war with them.
Of course we can go to War with them if they invade our territory and the UK military is still bigger and more effective than the Spanish military.
Argentina invaded the Falklands when we were in the EEC, fortunately the Argentine President is now a moderate not a military dictator as then
You’d need to get the military on land first! That may be a challenge.
Spain would have the vast majority of the local population against them enabling guerrilla warfare too.
It's a ludicrous premise but the US would not permit it as they couldn't tolerate a shooting war anywhere near NAVSTA Rota which is the strategic gateway to the Med.
Labour will become a Rejoin party once Corbyn stands down. Not before.
That surely depends on who his successor is. If it is someone from the Far Left I don't think so.
This conversation reminds me a lot of Tories talking about potential Labour numbers for the vote and being out by a decent margin. SO just attaches whatever he dislikes most to Corbyn and goodness is obviously enacted when he is replaced whilst you have some mystical image of the 'far left' and what the rest of the party believes....
Many of the MPs that are against a 2nd referendum are centrist/progress types. Clive Lewis who is a left wing Corbyn supporter is a supporter of a second referendum.
Taking it down to the left are anti EU and the centrists are pro EU or Labour all wants the EU badly but evil Mr Corbyn is holding them back belongs in the daily mail rather than any actual serious thinking.
On rejoin itself I'm not sure it is much of a goer, which is why people are fighting so hard to have the referendum IMO. At the very least my opinion is it only becomes possible if Brexit goes very badly which obviously isn't a desirable outcome or over the longer term maybe a decade or so.
My point was merely that given the make-up of the membership being pro-EU will have to be part of the offering of any candidate hoping to win the next leadership election.
Of course we can go to War with them if they invade our territory and the UK military is still bigger and more effective than the Spanish military.
Argentina invaded the Falklands when we were in the EEC, fortunately the Argentine President is now a moderate not a military dictator as then
First off, Spain isn't going to do anything. Second, we are leaving the EU not NATO and the prospect of one NATO country attacking another isn't going to go well for the aggressor. Washington would put all sorts of pressure on Madrid to call off the attack and the Spanish Government would likely collapse.
The notion of a Spanish attack on Gibraltar would be described on alternatehistory.com as ASB (Alien Space Bats) or just plain silly.
Of course we can go to War with them if they invade our territory and the UK military is still bigger and more effective than the Spanish military.
Argentina invaded the Falklands when we were in the EEC, fortunately the Argentine President is now a moderate not a military dictator as then
First off, Spain isn't going to do anything. Second, we are leaving the EU not NATO and the prospect of one NATO country attacking another isn't going to go well for the aggressor. Washington would put all sorts of pressure on Madrid to call off the attack and the Spanish Government would likely collapse.
The notion of a Spanish attack on Gibraltar would be described on alternatehistory.com as ASB (Alien Space Bats) or just plain silly.
Yes in reality it is not going to happen short of maybe a Franco style dictator taking over again
My god.... does this mean we think Spain will invade Gibraltar..... The EU might struggle to get to the Falklands though
We are weaker outside the EU so the threat from Argentina becomes greater. As to Gib - well what could we do if Spain simply marches in on the 29th of March? We can hardly go to war with them.
Of course we can go to War with them if they invade our territory and the UK military is still bigger and more effective than the Spanish military.
Argentina invaded the Falklands when we were in the EEC, fortunately the Argentine President is now a moderate not a military dictator as then
You’d need to get the military on land first! That may be a challenge.
There is already a British army garrison there in the form of the Royal Gibraltar regiment and that is what we have special forces for
Of course we can go to War with them if they invade our territory and the UK military is still bigger and more effective than the Spanish military.
Argentina invaded the Falklands when we were in the EEC, fortunately the Argentine President is now a moderate not a military dictator as then
First off, Spain isn't going to do anything. Second, we are leaving the EU not NATO and the prospect of one NATO country attacking another isn't going to go well for the aggressor. Washington would put all sorts of pressure on Madrid to call off the attack and the Spanish Government would likely collapse.
The notion of a Spanish attack on Gibraltar would be described on alternatehistory.com as ASB (Alien Space Bats) or just plain silly.
Of course that is right. But Spain finally has a far right, nationalist party. And if the polls are correct it could hold the balance of power after the next GE. Post-Brexit that will make things “interesting” for Gibraltar.
"The Countdown co-presenter Rachel Riley has revealed she is to be given extra security on the Channel 4 quiz show after being targeted with online abuse over her criticism of antisemitism within the Labour party.
The Oxford mathematics graduate said she had been targeted by Labour supporters on Twitter for her criticisms of the party and its leader, Jeremy Corbyn."
Plus Fiona Bruce having to take similar measures and Laura k in previous years...and yet a 1000s of column inches were spent on the twat in a yellow jacket shouting nazi.
It's worth listening to Deborah Lipstadt's interview on the Today programme on this. Tomorrow some will solemnly intone or tweet all the right words on Holocaust Memorial Day. Any yet the growth in anti-Semitism and its tolerance by far too many who really should know better has been one of the most worrying and horrible developments of recent years.
Labour will become a Rejoin party once Corbyn stands down. Not before.
That surely depends on who his successor is. If it is someone from the Far Left I don't think so.
This conversation reminds me a lot of Tories talking about potential Labour numbers for the vote and being out by a decent margin. SO just attaches whatever he dislikes most to Corbyn and goodness is obviously enacted when he is replaced whilst you have some mystical image of the 'far left' and what the rest of the party believes....
Many of the MPs that are against a 2nd referendum are centrist/progress types. Clive Lewis who is a left wing Corbyn supporter is a supporter of a second referendum.
Taking it down to the left are anti EU and the centrists are pro EU or Labour all wants the EU badly but evil Mr Corbyn is holding them back belongs in the daily mail rather than any actual serious thinking.
On rejoin itself I'm not sure it is much of a goer, which is why people are fighting so hard to have the referendum IMO. At the very least my opinion is it only becomes possible if Brexit goes very badly which obviously isn't a desirable outcome or over the longer term maybe a decade or so.
My point was merely that given the make-up of the membership being pro-EU will have to be part of the offering of any candidate hoping to win the next leadership election.
They will talk up their positivity about the EU no doubt, they won't be someone claiming Brexit is brilliant but unless things go really badly wrong straight away I can't see rejoin being the first thing. Also worth remembering Smith played the pro EU card with much the same membership, possibly a more favourable one to him than we have now. Even Iraq took years to become that important in internal Labour politics and that was something Labour actively did as a government. It needs Brexit to be terrible IMO.
Labour will become a Rejoin party once Corbyn stands down. Not before.
That surely depends on who his successor is. If it is someone from the Far Left I don't think so.
This conversation reminds me a lot of Tories talking about potential Labour numbers for the vote and being out by a decent margin. SO just attaches whatever he dislikes most to Corbyn and goodness is obviously enacted when he is replaced whilst you have some mystical image of the 'far left' and what the rest of the party believes....
Many of the MPs that are against a 2nd referendum are centrist/progress types. Clive Lewis who is a left wing Corbyn supporter is a supporter of a second referendum.
Taking it down to the left are anti EU and the centrists are pro EU or Labour all wants the EU badly but evil Mr Corbyn is holding them back belongs in the daily mail rather than any actual serious thinking.
On rejoin itself I'm not sure it is much of a goer, which is why people are fighting so hard to have the referendum IMO. At the very least my opinion is it only becomes possible if Brexit goes very badly which obviously isn't a desirable outcome or over the longer term maybe a decade or so.
My point was merely that given the make-up of the membership being pro-EU will have to be part of the offering of any candidate hoping to win the next leadership election.
They will talk up their positivity about the EU no doubt, they won't be someone claiming Brexit is brilliant but unless things go really badly wrong straight away I can't see rejoin being the first thing. Also worth remembering Smith played the pro EU card with much the same membership, possibly a more favourable one to him than we have now. Even Iraq took years to become that important in internal Labour politics and that was something Labour actively did as a government. It needs Brexit to be terrible IMO.
We’ll see. The No Deal Brexit that’s coming is going to be terrible.
Of course we can go to War with them if they invade our territory and the UK military is still bigger and more effective than the Spanish military.
Argentina invaded the Falklands when we were in the EEC, fortunately the Argentine President is now a moderate not a military dictator as then
First off, Spain isn't going to do anything. Second, we are leaving the EU not NATO and the prospect of one NATO country attacking another isn't going to go well for the aggressor. Washington would put all sorts of pressure on Madrid to call off the attack and the Spanish Government would likely collapse.
The notion of a Spanish attack on Gibraltar would be described on alternatehistory.com as ASB (Alien Space Bats) or just plain silly.
It doesn't seem especially likely, but just imagine the Spanish chose to use our preoccupation with other things and our weakest international position since 1956 to achieve one of their objectives. The military on the rock can't stop a Spanish occupation. What would the UK government do if it happened? It's a useful thought experiment for showing how leaving the EU reduces our standing in the world.
Labour will become a Rejoin party once Corbyn stands down. Not before.
That surely depends on who his successor is. If it is someone from the Far Left I don't think so.
This conversation reminds me a lot of Tories talking about potential Labour numbers for the vote and being out by a decent margin. SO just attaches whatever he dislikes most to Corbyn and goodness is obviously enacted when he is replaced whilst you have some mystical image of the 'far left' and what the rest of the party believes....
Many of the MPs that are against a 2nd referendum are centrist/progress types. Clive Lewis who is a left wing Corbyn supporter is a supporter of a second referendum.
Taking it down to the left are anti EU and the centrists are pro EU or Labour all wants the EU badly but evil Mr Corbyn is holding them back belongs in the daily mail rather than any actual serious thinking.
On rejoin itself I'm not sure it is much of a goer, which is why people are fighting so hard to have the referendum IMO. At the very least my opinion is it only becomes possible if Brexit goes very badly which obviously isn't a desirable outcome or over the longer term maybe a decade or so.
My point was merely that given the make-up of the membership being pro-EU will have to be part of the offering of any candidate hoping to win the next leadership election.
They will talk up their positivity about the EU no doubt, they won't be someone claiming Brexit is brilliant but unless things go really badly wrong straight away I can't see rejoin being the first thing. Also worth remembering Smith played the pro EU card with much the same membership, possibly a more favourable one to him than we have now. Even Iraq took years to become that important in internal Labour politics and that was something Labour actively did as a government. It needs Brexit to be terrible IMO.
We’ll see. The No Deal Brexit that’s coming is going to be terrible.
I can believe that is possibly is, I can also see it being really terrible disruption which causes a lot of problems in the short term after which it could become a loss of growth which isn't easily as noticed. If the problems come in the shorter term and the longer term problems aren't as visible then rejoining once the visible problems are mostly resolved is a harder sell to people.
Edit: How easily these problems can be worked around is another question.
Labour will become a Rejoin party once Corbyn stands down. Not before.
That surely depends on who his successor is. If it is someone from the Far Left I don't think so.
This conversation reminds me a lot of Tories talking about potential Labour numbers for the vote and being out by a decent margin. SO just attaches whatever he dislikes most to Corbyn and goodness is obviously enacted when he is replaced whilst you have some mystical image of the 'far left' and what the rest of the party believes....
Many of the MPs that are against a 2nd referendum are centrist/progress types. Clive Lewis who is a left wing Corbyn supporter is a supporter of a second referendum.
Taking it down to the left are anti EU and the centrists are pro EU or Labour all wants the EU badly but evil Mr Corbyn is holding them back belongs in the daily mail rather than any actual serious thinking.
On rejoin itself I'm not sure it is much of a goer, which is why people are fighting so hard to have the referendum IMO. At the very least my opinion is it only becomes possible if Brexit goes very badly which obviously isn't a desirable outcome or over the longer term maybe a decade or so.
I have been following politics since, probably, before you were born. And have voted Labour - as my father did. The Far Left - the strand from which Corbyn comes and in which he has spent his whole political life - and his advisors have always been against the EU and have repeatedly voted against it. I have seen in recent months some of the same Far Left arguments that were being made against the EU in the 1970's and 80's being made again by Corbyn supporters.
Corbyn may have changed his mind - possibly only for tactical reasons - but he is currently doing precious little to encourage people like me that Labour would pivot to Remain or Rejoin or, indeed, that they have any sort of coherent European strategy at all.
I am not "mystical" about Labour. Contemptuous is the word you're looking for.
My god.... does this mean we think Spain will invade Gibraltar..... The EU might struggle to get to the Falklands though
We are weaker outside the EU so the threat from Argentina becomes greater. As to Gib - well what could we do if Spain simply marches in on the 29th of March? We can hardly go to war with them.
Of course we can go to War with them if they invade our territory and the UK military is still bigger and more effective than the Spanish military.
Argentina invaded the Falklands when we were in the EEC, fortunately the Argentine President is now a moderate not a military dictator as then
You’d need to get the military on land first! That may be a challenge.
I suspect the British wouldn't try to directly support Gibraltar- logistics are terrible - against a surprise attack. plenty of targets on the mainland, whose damage would seriously affect the Spanish, more than any gain from Gibraltar. But let's hope it doesn't happen in real life - which would almost certainly be precededed by escalating tensions and a pretty discernable troop build-up.
And yet still no sign of the actual figures. The thread replies are a hoot.
There's an element of the lady doth protest too much about this You'd expect Labour membership to have dropped off a reasonable amount from 2016-17 as it was boosted hugely by the leadership challenge and election. Plus even those who believe it insignificant in the greater scheme of things realise there's a decent number of liberal left Labour members who are deeply upset by the party's ridiculous behaviour on Brexit. Even if the party was in fairly rude health you'd expect a slight deflation of the 2017 Corbyn bubble.
The key maybe in Jennie Formby's statement that more people are joining than resigning. That may well be true. But relatively few people actively resign unless they're an official or want to make a point, they just cancel their direct debit - and you stay a member for six months you're in arrears at least, longer if lists aren't updated or no one bothers to get rid. It's what happened to me the first time I quit in disgust at Corbyn. When he was challenged for the leadership and I thought we could revove the stain on left-wing politics I paid up my arrears so could vote and phonebank for Smith.
I'd suggest the Sunday Times' source may well have seen the number of people in arrears set to leave the party by default, while Labour is still counting them as members. That would also explain the reluctance to publish figures - as even if you can count them now and post positive looking ones, at some point they leave and you get the big drop. Best to stonewall and obfuscate in the hope events cause another surge.
What with the attacks on the BBC though, Labour's press operation really is now very Trumpian.
An African practice of “ironing” a girl’s chest with a hot stone to delay breast formation is spreading in the UK, with anecdotal evidence of dozens of recent cases, a Guardian investigation has established.
My god.... does this mean we think Spain will invade Gibraltar..... The EU might struggle to get to the Falklands though
We are weaker outside the EU so the threat from Argentina becomes greater. As to Gib - well what could we do if Spain simply marches in on the 29th of March? We can hardly go to war with them.
Of course we can go to War with them if they invade our territory and the UK military is still bigger and more effective than the Spanish military.
Argentina invaded the Falklands when we were in the EEC, fortunately the Argentine President is now a moderate not a military dictator as then
You’d need to get the military on land first! That may be a challenge.
I suspect the British wouldn't try to directly support Gibraltar- logistics are terrible - against a surprise attack. plenty of targets on the mainland, whose damage would seriously affect the Spanish, more than any gain from Gibraltar. But let's hope it doesn't happen in real life - which would almost certainly be precededed by escalating tensions and a pretty discernable troop build-up.
How many Brits are living in Spain? And where? IIRC there seem to be quite a few close to Gib so they can pop across to M&S and so on.
Labour will become a Rejoin party once Corbyn stands down. Not before.
That surely depends on who his successor is. If it is someone from the Far Left I don't think so.
This conversation reminds me a lot of Tories talking about potential Labour numbers for the vote and being out by a decent margin. SO just attaches whatever he dislikes most to Corbyn and goodness is obviously enacted when he is replaced whilst you have some mystical image of the 'far left' and what the rest of the party believes....
Many of the MPs that are against a 2nd referendum are centrist/progress types. Clive Lewis who is a left wing Corbyn supporter is a supporter of a second referendum.
Taking it down to the left are anti EU and the centrists are pro EU or Labour all wants the EU badly but evil Mr Corbyn is holding them back belongs in the daily mail rather than any actual serious thinking.
On rejoin itself I'm not sure it is much of a goer, which is why people are fighting so hard to have the referendum IMO. At the very least my opinion is it only becomes possible if Brexit goes very badly which obviously isn't a desirable outcome or over the longer term maybe a decade or so.
I have been following politics since, probably, before you were born. And have voted Labour - as my father did. The Far Left - the strand from which Corbyn comes and in which he has spent his whole political life - and his advisors have always been against the EU and have repeatedly voted against it. I have seen in recent months some of the same Far Left arguments that were being made against the EU in the 1970's and 80's being made again by Corbyn supporters.
Corbyn may have changed his mind - possibly only for tactical reasons - but he is currently doing precious little to encourage people like me that Labour would pivot to Remain or Rejoin or, indeed, that they have any sort of coherent European strategy at all.
I am not "mystical" about Labour. Contemptuous is the word you're looking for.
The centrists are probably more anti EU than the left* in Labour, they are much more often the ones with concerns about immigration.
*Or the scary 'far left' as they might be known filled with pro EU types.
The centrists = pro EU, left = anti EU take belongs in the Daily Mail not coming from you, it is basically just false. Diane Abbott and Clive Lewis are more pro EU than any of the leadership candidates Corbyn faced in 2015. They are more pro EU than Ed Miliband**.
Rejoin won't happen for the simple reason that the EU will find it prefers life without us - this will, of course, enrage the Brexiteers.
So we'll be sitting outside the EU, doubtless continuing to pay them for access to various things, and following most of their trading rules, without any say whatsoever.
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
That rather depends on how obvious our economic decline, relative to our neighbours, becomes.
Does anyone know if the Dromey amendment can actually prevent no deal in reality
No, it is a show of intent only.
A gesture amendment intended to give an impression but not actually achieve anything? I'm shocked I tell you, shocked...
It is why the government are possibly happy for MPs to vote for that rather than the Cooper amendment which does have some effect. Basically everyone is still holding their cards and not playing them, far too early yet, couple of months until we leave still.
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
This presupposes that Eurosceptics will be happy with the new arrangement and won't constantly complain about the myriad ways Brussels is frustrating us.
Does anyone know if the Dromey amendment can actually prevent no deal in reality
No, it is a show of intent only.
A gesture amendment intended to give an impression but not actually achieve anything? I'm shocked I tell you, shocked...
It is why the government are possibly happy for MPs to vote for that rather than the Cooper amendment which does have some effect. Basically everyone is still holding their cards and not playing them, far too early yet, couple of months until we leave still.
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
This presupposes that Eurosceptics will be happy with the new arrangement and won't constantly complain about the myriad ways Brussels is frustrating us.
Which is very likely. At least while Rupert Murdoch is still alive!
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
And yet before the referendum I knew a handful of really anti-EU people - though I avoided the subject with them. I knew literally one pro-EU person - a Lib Dem councillor - and again I made sure not to bring it up.
Now I know at least a dozen firmly pro-EUers, some of whom are organising with the intention of campaigning on the issue in the long run.
Things have changed. In fact I think if the leavers were smart they would be pushing for a second referendum while they can still win it.
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
This presupposes that Eurosceptics will be happy with the new arrangement and won't constantly complain about the myriad ways Brussels is frustrating us.
I suspect they will get the same response as anyone wanting to rejoin.
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
That rather depends on how obvious our economic decline, relative to our neighbours, becomes.
It has to be an obvious disaster over a long enough timeframe, simply a loss of growth won't be noticeable enough. I don't fully discount either scenario.
But without Brexit being terrible I can only see rejoining being a goal in the longer term, a decade plus away. Which could also be after Corbyn but I feel like most of those suggesting it are hoping the next Labour leader comes sooner.
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
That rather depends on how obvious our economic decline, relative to our neighbours, becomes.
Not really. It is the mistake that Europhiles have made all along. Thinking that economics trumps everything. You really do need to start learning that lesson.
The European Medicines Agency, one of the biggest EU regulators and one of the first casualties of Brexit, has closed its doors in the UK for the last time with the loss of 900 jobs.
Staff lowered and folded up the 28 national flags that adorned the lobby in London’s Canary Wharf headquarters on Friday night and bid farewell before moving to their new offices in Amsterdam.
Does anyone know if the Dromey amendment can actually prevent no deal in reality
No, it is a show of intent only.
A gesture amendment intended to give an impression but not actually achieve anything? I'm shocked I tell you, shocked...
It is why the government are possibly happy for MPs to vote for that rather than the Cooper amendment which does have some effect. Basically everyone is still holding their cards and not playing them, far too early yet, couple of months until we leave still.
62 days. It's not a lot of time.
I was being a bit sarcy about how its too early...
A podcast mentioned that some Tory potential rebels will hold off on the Cooper amendment and vote for the Dromey one and strike later at no deal if they need to (a specific time/event/bill was mentioned) for something more concrete. So the attitude is still a bit of time yet, or it is if Cooper doesn't pass.
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
That rather depends on how obvious our economic decline, relative to our neighbours, becomes.
It has to be an obvious disaster over a long enough timeframe, simply a loss of growth won't be noticeable enough. I don't fully discount either scenario.
But without Brexit being terrible I can only see rejoining being a goal in the longer term, a decade plus away. Which could also be after Corbyn but I feel like most of those suggesting it are hoping the next Labour leader comes sooner.
In any event, Les Trentes Glorieuses aren't coming back. No one is going to care whether GDP grows at 2% pa, as opposed to 2.25%.
I think Sean Fear makes a very good point: that the Remainers are much more effective in parliament than the Leavers, and for this reason Remainers may well get to reverse Brexit, after all.
Put it another way, the mad or stupid Remainers are mainly outside parliament (from Adonis to Grayling to all the lunatic FBPE-ers). The Remainers in parliament are smart and/or cunning, from Grieve to Cooper. By contrast some of the worst and stupidest Leavers - looking at you Mr Francois - are Tory MPs, while the best Leaver brains, like D Cummings, are not politicians at all.
For this reason I am beginning to fear I will lose my Very Large Bet with williamglenn of this here parish
You deserve to lose solely because of the paucity of logic to justify your vote in the first place. Within 48 hours of casting your vote for leave you were on here admitting you had f**ked up big time.
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
That rather depends on how obvious our economic decline, relative to our neighbours, becomes.
Not really. It is the mistake that Europhiles have made all along. Thinking that economics trumps everything. You really do need to start learning that lesson.
Alternatively, time will demonstrate that it's Clinton's lesson that you need to learn.
If even Mother Leadsom is conceding the need for delay, surely Betfair's 'not going to leave the EU on 29 March, @ 1.25, is close to free money.
Not really. It depends as it always has done on the UE accepting it They have said all along they will not unless there is a good reason to do so. Not being able to make up our minds is not a good reason.
At this moment the only way I can see us realistically delaying is if May gets the deal in some form through Parliament and time is needed to complete the legislation.
I think Sean Fear makes a very good point: that the Remainers are much more effective in parliament than the Leavers, and for this reason Remainers may well get to reverse Brexit, after all.
Put it another way, the mad or stupid Remainers are mainly outside parliament (from Adonis to Grayling to all the lunatic FBPE-ers). The Remainers in parliament are smart and/or cunning, from Grieve to Cooper. By contrast some of the worst and stupidest Leavers - looking at you Mr Francois - are Tory MPs, while the best Leaver brains, like D Cummings, are not politicians at all.
For this reason I am beginning to fear I will lose my Very Large Bet with williamglenn of this here parish
Agreed. Meetings of the ERG or People's Vote probably resemble the Bar Scene in Star Wars, but the former do much greater damage to their cause than the latter.
I think Sean Fear makes a very good point: that the Remainers are much more effective in parliament than the Leavers, and for this reason Remainers may well get to reverse Brexit, after all.
Put it another way, the mad or stupid Remainers are mainly outside parliament (from Adonis to Grayling to all the lunatic FBPE-ers). The Remainers in parliament are smart and/or cunning, from Grieve to Cooper. By contrast some of the worst and stupidest Leavers - looking at you Mr Francois - are Tory MPs, while the best Leaver brains, like D Cummings, are not politicians at all.
For this reason I am beginning to fear I will lose my Very Large Bet with williamglenn of this here parish
If the government as reported put down their own amendment regarding the backstop before Tuesday and as expected with the ERG and DUP support it will pass , this will put ball with the EU who will probably refuse to budge, so no deal it is. Cooper looks set to fail, Greives going to fail, 2nd ref off the table now, only Dromey likely to pass from what the rumours are saying which is only statement of intent so no deal it is or am I missing something
Comments
I might be able to make at least £7.45.
Even though he obviously had to honour his manifesto commitment, there was no requirement to do it almost immediately. He could have waited until the economic benefits of austerity had materialized and austerity measures had ended
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/ian-payne/dominic-grieve-backs-brexit-free-vote-for-mps/
And perhaps the biggest but least tangible of all, Europe will just look a lot more appealing. I was against joining the EU as a teenager because in the early seventies when I visited Calais and Dieppe they just looked like dumps compared to southern England. The comparison is much more favourable to Europe nowadays, and every year the continent has better economic growth the more attractive it will become to rejoin the club.
But one way or another, we will rejoin.
https://twitter.com/bellacaledonia/status/1089138211744567296
If groups are going to campaign to Remain or to Rejoin, they need first to work out what Britain's European's strategy should be, as I have argued. And be absolutely clear-sighted and honest about what the EU is and is aiming for, and what that means for Britain, both the costs and benefits.
Without this I fear any pro-joining the EU campaign will be doomed to failure. Or, even if successful, to endless argument once in, much as in the last 40 years.
TV had an obsession that the Manchester result was going to be important and ignored 40k+ leads for Leave in a succession of Midland and Northern towns.
There really wasn't any doubt after the Sheffield result but the TV stations still took another hour to call the result.
However, the terms of rejoining need to be clear - not just the Euro and/or Schengen but the amount the UK would be expected to contribute to the EU from year one.
http://hurryupharry.org/2019/01/25/the-thought-police-are-here/
mhhh - how about dealing with err actual crimes?
Explain to me how Brexit increases the threat from Agentina?
Brexit makes no difference to the scenarios you outline.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll
Many of the MPs that are against a 2nd referendum are centrist/progress types. Clive Lewis who is a left wing Corbyn supporter is a supporter of a second referendum.
Taking it down to the left are anti EU and the centrists are pro EU or Labour all wants the EU badly but evil Mr Corbyn is holding them back belongs in the daily mail rather than any actual serious thinking.
On rejoin itself I'm not sure it is much of a goer, which is why people are fighting so hard to have the referendum IMO. At the very least my opinion is it only becomes possible if Brexit goes very badly which obviously isn't a desirable outcome or over the longer term maybe a decade or so.
And yet still no sign of the actual figures. The thread replies are a hoot.
Argentina invaded the Falklands when we were in the EEC, fortunately the Argentine President is now a moderate not a military dictator as then
The notion of a Spanish attack on Gibraltar would be described on alternatehistory.com as ASB (Alien Space Bats) or just plain silly.
Edit: How easily these problems can be worked around is another question.
Arise, children of the offshore bookmakers,
The day of glory has arrived!
Corbyn may have changed his mind - possibly only for tactical reasons - but he is currently doing precious little to encourage people like me that Labour would pivot to Remain or Rejoin or, indeed, that they have any sort of coherent European strategy at all.
I am not "mystical" about Labour. Contemptuous is the word you're looking for.
The key maybe in Jennie Formby's statement that more people are joining than resigning. That may well be true. But relatively few people actively resign unless they're an official or want to make a point, they just cancel their direct debit - and you stay a member for six months you're in arrears at least, longer if lists aren't updated or no one bothers to get rid. It's what happened to me the first time I quit in disgust at Corbyn. When he was challenged for the leadership and I thought we could revove the stain on left-wing politics I paid up my arrears so could vote and phonebank for Smith.
I'd suggest the Sunday Times' source may well have seen the number of people in arrears set to leave the party by default, while Labour is still counting them as members. That would also explain the reluctance to publish figures - as even if you can count them now and post positive looking ones, at some point they leave and you get the big drop. Best to stonewall and obfuscate in the hope events cause another surge.
What with the attacks on the BBC though, Labour's press operation really is now very Trumpian.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/jan/26/revealed-dozens-of-girls-subjected-to-breast-ironing-in-uk
*Or the scary 'far left' as they might be known filled with pro EU types.
The centrists = pro EU, left = anti EU take belongs in the Daily Mail not coming from you, it is basically just false. Diane Abbott and Clive Lewis are more pro EU than any of the leadership candidates Corbyn faced in 2015. They are more pro EU than Ed Miliband**.
**Not suggesting he is a centrist,
Thanks, Brexiters, truly a result.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
Claiming to be definitely 6 points ahead in the polls when the polls don't actually say that at all is more Trump's style.
Now I know at least a dozen firmly pro-EUers, some of whom are organising with the intention of campaigning on the issue in the long run.
Things have changed. In fact I think if the leavers were smart they would be pushing for a second referendum while they can still win it.
But without Brexit being terrible I can only see rejoining being a goal in the longer term, a decade plus away. Which could also be after Corbyn but I feel like most of those suggesting it are hoping the next Labour leader comes sooner.
Staff lowered and folded up the 28 national flags that adorned the lobby in London’s Canary Wharf headquarters on Friday night and bid farewell before moving to their new offices in Amsterdam.
A podcast mentioned that some Tory potential rebels will hold off on the Cooper amendment and vote for the Dromey one and strike later at no deal if they need to (a specific time/event/bill was mentioned) for something more concrete. So the attitude is still a bit of time yet, or it is if Cooper doesn't pass.
At this moment the only way I can see us realistically delaying is if May gets the deal in some form through Parliament and time is needed to complete the legislation.
Good news! Testing starts 18 February.