I think Sean Fear makes a very good point: that the Remainers are much more effective in parliament than the Leavers, and for this reason Remainers may well get to reverse Brexit, after all.
Put it another way, the mad or stupid Remainers are mainly outside parliament (from Adonis to Grayling to all the lunatic FBPE-ers). The Remainers in parliament are smart and/or cunning, from Grieve to Cooper. By contrast some of the worst and stupidest Leavers - looking at you Mr Francois - are Tory MPs, while the best Leaver brains, like D Cummings, are not politicians at all.
For this reason I am beginning to fear I will lose my Very Large Bet with williamglenn of this here parish
I looked up Mr F, what with him being an Essex MP and me having, in the distant past campaigned in what is now his constituency. As far as I could see his old school website lists it's distinguished 'alumni' only as Depeche Mode and Alison Moyet!
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
And yet before the referendum I knew a handful of really anti-EU people - though I avoided the subject with them. I knew literally one pro-EU person - a Lib Dem councillor - and again I made sure not to bring it up.
Now I know at least a dozen firmly pro-EUers, some of whom are organising with the intention of campaigning on the issue in the long run.
Things have changed. In fact I think if the leavers were smart they would be pushing for a second referendum while they can still win it.
The clock starts ticking against rejoin as soon as we leave. Indeed I would suggest that because of the rules for new countries, if we actually leave the requirements for rejoining would be so opposed in the UK that there would be absolutely no chance at all. The country was split 50:50 on staying in with all the opt outs. Once they go you are looking at a rump Europhile support of probably less than 30%.
I think Sean Fear makes a very good point: that the Remainers are much more effective in parliament than the Leavers, and for this reason Remainers may well get to reverse Brexit, after all.
Put it another way, the mad or stupid Remainers are mainly outside parliament (from Adonis to Grayling to all the lunatic FBPE-ers). The Remainers in parliament are smart and/or cunning, from Grieve to Cooper. By contrast some of the worst and stupidest Leavers - looking at you Mr Francois - are Tory MPs, while the best Leaver brains, like D Cummings, are not politicians at all.
For this reason I am beginning to fear I will lose my Very Large Bet with williamglenn of this here parish
If the government as reported put down their own amendment regarding the backstop before Tuesday and as expected with the ERG and DUP support it will pass , this will put ball with the EU who will probably refuse to budge, so no deal it is. Cooper looks set to fail, Greives going to fail, 2nd ref off the table now, only Dromey likely to pass from what the rumours are saying which is only statement of intent so no deal it is or am I missing something
So May will get her wish; No Deal as opposed to a Bad Deal.
I think Sean Fear makes a very good point: that the Remainers are much more effective in parliament than the Leavers, and for this reason Remainers may well get to reverse Brexit, after all.
Put it another way, the mad or stupid Remainers are mainly outside parliament (from Adonis to Grayling to all the lunatic FBPE-ers). The Remainers in parliament are smart and/or cunning, from Grieve to Cooper. By contrast some of the worst and stupidest Leavers - looking at you Mr Francois - are Tory MPs, while the best Leaver brains, like D Cummings, are not politicians at all.
For this reason I am beginning to fear I will lose my Very Large Bet with williamglenn of this here parish
If the government as reported put down their own amendment regarding the backstop before Tuesday and as expected with the ERG and DUP support it will pass , this will put ball with the EU who will probably refuse to budge, so no deal it is. Cooper looks set to fail, Greives going to fail, 2nd ref off the table now, only Dromey likely to pass from what the rumours are saying which is only statement of intent so no deal it is or am I missing something
Those voting for the statement of intent could well go to do what they have signalled they intend to do by voting for something which does have an effect. Like the Cooper amendment but at a later date. The idea being it is too early to make that play yet until the government has had its chance again.
I am not saying this is what will happen but what could happen.
If even Mother Leadsom is conceding the need for delay, surely Betfair's 'not going to leave the EU on 29 March, @ 1.25, is close to free money.
Not really. It depends as it always has done on the UE accepting it They have said all along they will not unless there is a good reason to do so. Not being able to make up our minds is not a good reason.
At this moment the only way I can see us realistically delaying is if May gets the deal in some form through Parliament and time is needed to complete the legislation.
Or if MP's finally screw their courage to the sticking point, and revoke A50.
Marina Hyde is absolutely right. Save for one thing. He is not an aristocrat. Not even a plastic one. Not even close. Just a jumped up money trader who is trying to ape what he thinks are aristocratic values. And failing.
The notion of wishing to be an aristocrat, propped up by the world’s most generous welfare benefits system, is anathema to me.
Marina Hyde is absolutely right. Save for one thing. He is not an aristocrat. Not even a plastic one. Not even close. Just a jumped up money trader who is trying to ape what he thinks are aristocratic values. And failing.
The notion of wishing to be an aristocrat, propped up by the world’s most generous welfare benefits system, is anathema to me.
Owning a place like Chilham Castle or Hatfield House, and being a mult-millionaire, seems very appealing to me.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
Sort of agree with this.
Leaving the EU is a MASSIVE decision, hence why the process of doing so is proving harrowing. It was always going to be. You don't split from your partner of 45 years without going through the emotional mangle. Not unless the relationship never meant much to you anyway. In which case you are a fraud and very shallow. And that is not Blighty.
So, once the deed is finally done, there will not be the appetite (bar on the europhile fringe) for seeking to reverse it anytime soon. Much time will need to pass, memories of how divisive leaving was will need to fade, before rejoining can be contemplated with any equanimity. How much time? 25 years at the very least.
The one caveat I have to this would be if Brexit turns out to be a disaster in economic terms. If it is a disaster, and this becomes clear quite quickly, then, OK, I guess it is not inconceivable that we could be knocking on the door, with a bunch of flowers and a sheepish grin, in say 2025.
Spain would have the vast majority of the local population against them enabling guerrilla warfare too.
Traditionally a gurrilla war has required more than 2.6 square miles within which to operate.
Plenty of tightly packed in buildings to shoot from and locals know the territory
You really need to stop and think for at least a minute or two before posting on here.
Nothing wrong with that comment especially with RAF air support and the SAS and parachute regiment quickly sent to the territory too
With respect you are talking utter and complete nonsense.
Even discussing war between Spain and the UK is beyond belief
This thread is a perfect response to the idea that even HMQ can bring common sense to the disaster that is Brexit
You are best going back to quoting polls that you think prove some point or other
Well of course it is extremely unlikely but the armed forces have to be prepared for anything and given the only wars we would now ever be likely to fight on our own outside NATO, the UN or without the USA would be against Spain over Gibraltar or Argentina over the Falklands our military have to be prepared if say a nationalist government came to power there or a military dictatorship took over either again
I think Sean Fear makes a very good point: that the Remainers are much more effective in parliament than the Leavers, and for this reason Remainers may well get to reverse Brexit, after all.
Put it another way, the mad or stupid Remainers are mainly outside parliament (from Adonis to Grayling to all the lunatic FBPE-ers). The Remainers in parliament are smart and/or cunning, from Grieve to Cooper. By contrast some of the worst and stupidest Leavers - looking at you Mr Francois - are Tory MPs, while the best Leaver brains, like D Cummings, are not politicians at all.
For this reason I am beginning to fear I will lose my Very Large Bet with williamglenn of this here parish
You deserve to lose solely because of the paucity of logic to justify your vote in the first place. Within 48 hours of casting your vote for leave you were on here admitting you had f**ked up big time.
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
And yet before the referendum I knew a handful of really anti-EU people - though I avoided the subject with them. I knew literally one pro-EU person - a Lib Dem councillor - and again I made sure not to bring it up.
Now I know at least a dozen firmly pro-EUers, some of whom are organising with the intention of campaigning on the issue in the long run.
Things have changed. In fact I think if the leavers were smart they would be pushing for a second referendum while they can still win it.
The clock starts ticking against rejoin as soon as we leave. Indeed I would suggest that because of the rules for new countries, if we actually leave the requirements for rejoining would be so opposed in the UK that there would be absolutely no chance at all. The country was split 50:50 on staying in with all the opt outs. Once they go you are looking at a rump Europhile support of probably less than 30%.
If we actually Brexit I don’t think any party would dare to call a referendum for a decade. Remember we are going to be negotiating our FTA with the EU for the next few years, for a start, whatever happens (if we do indeed Leave).
However - and I have made this point before - I can easily see a future Labour government putting, say, EFTA or EEA membership in its manifesto, and thus we rejoin the SM and maybe even the CU without a plebiscite. Bingo. Indeed I would say this is more likely than not within the next ten years.
I think there is a majority in the Commons for a Remain v Deal referendum and extending Article 50 as a last resort to avoid No Deal.
I also agree if we do leave we would only be likely to rejoin the EEA and Customs Union rather than the full EU
Spain would have the vast majority of the local population against them enabling guerrilla warfare too.
Traditionally a gurrilla war has required more than 2.6 square miles within which to operate.
Plenty of tightly packed in buildings to shoot from and locals know the territory
You really need to stop and think for at least a minute or two before posting on here.
Nothing wrong with that comment especially with RAF air support and the SAS and parachute regiment quickly sent to the territory too
With respect you are talking utter and complete nonsense.
Even discussing war between Spain and the UK is beyond belief
This thread is a perfect response to the idea that even HMQ can bring common sense to the disaster that is Brexit
You are best going back to quoting polls that you think prove some point or other
Well of course it is extremely unlikely but the armed forces have to be prepared for anything and given the only wars we would now ever be likely to fight on our own outside NATO, the UN or without the USA would be against Spain over Gibraltar or Argentina over the Falklands our military have to be prepared if say a nationalist government came to power there or a military dictatorship took over either again
It is not worth even discussing - brexit is driving people insane
I think Sean Fear makes a very good point: that the Remainers are much more effective in parliament than the Leavers, and for this reason Remainers may well get to reverse Brexit, after all.
Put it another way, the mad or stupid Remainers are mainly outside parliament (from Adonis to Grayling to all the lunatic FBPE-ers). The Remainers in parliament are smart and/or cunning, from Grieve to Cooper. By contrast some of the worst and stupidest Leavers - looking at you Mr Francois - are Tory MPs, while the best Leaver brains, like D Cummings, are not politicians at all.
For this reason I am beginning to fear I will lose my Very Large Bet with williamglenn of this here parish
If the government as reported put down their own amendment regarding the backstop before Tuesday and as expected with the ERG and DUP support it will pass , this will put ball with the EU who will probably refuse to budge, so no deal it is. Cooper looks set to fail, Greives going to fail, 2nd ref off the table now, only Dromey likely to pass from what the rumours are saying which is only statement of intent so no deal it is or am I missing something
Not necessarily, if the EU reject May's non backstop Deal plans I would then expect 50 or so Tory MPs to shift from backing the Deal to backing a Remain v Deal EUref2 potentially giving the latter about 350 MPs and a Commons majority. Remember only 150 MPs at most are committed to No Deal
Spain would have the vast majority of the local population against them enabling guerrilla warfare too.
Traditionally a gurrilla war has required more than 2.6 square miles within which to operate.
Plenty of tightly packed in buildings to shoot from and locals know the territory
You really need to stop and think for at least a minute or two before posting on here.
Nothing wrong with that comment especially with RAF air support and the SAS and parachute regiment quickly sent to the territory too
With respect you are talking utter and complete nonsense.
Even discussing war between Spain and the UK is beyond belief
This thread is a perfect response to the idea that even HMQ can bring common sense to the disaster that is Brexit
You are best going back to quoting polls that you think prove some point or other
Well of course it is extremely unlikely but the armed forces have to be prepared for anything and given the only wars we would now ever be likely to fight on our own outside NATO, the UN or without the USA would be against Spain over Gibraltar or Argentina over the Falklands our military have to be prepared if say a nationalist government came to power there or a military dictatorship took over either again
It is not worth even discussing - brexit is driving people insane
The military war game all the time, Brexit or no Brexit
Spain would have the vast majority of the local population against them enabling guerrilla warfare too.
Traditionally a gurrilla war has required more than 2.6 square miles within which to operate.
Plenty of tightly packed in buildings to shoot from and locals know the territory
You really need to stop and think for at least a minute or two before posting on here.
Nothing wrong with that comment especially with RAF air support and the SAS and parachute regiment quickly sent to the territory too
With respect you are talking utter and complete nonsense.
Even discussing war between Spain and the UK is beyond belief
This thread is a perfect response to the idea that even HMQ can bring common sense to the disaster that is Brexit
You are best going back to quoting polls that you think prove some point or other
Well of course it is extremely unlikely but the armed forces have to be prepared for anything and given the only wars we would now ever be likely to fight on our own outside NATO, the UN or without the USA would be against Spain over Gibraltar or Argentina over the Falklands our military have to be prepared if say a nationalist government came to power there or a military dictatorship took over either again
It is not worth even discussing - brexit is driving people insane
The military war game all the time, Brexit or no Brexit
I think it is far too soon to speculate what might happen if we do actually leave the EU. Those who’ve never reconciled themselves to the democratic decision to leave, will mindlessly campaign to rejoin and their cause will be helped by lack of adequate preparation for leaving. The wholesale failure and incompetence of our political class during Brexit will give Brussels a superficial attractiveness.
However, the EU has problems of its own which will not be helped by Brexit and even if it retains the attractiveness its supporters claim for it, the idea of rejoining if that involves no opt-outs, no budget rebate, and having to sign up to membership of the Eurozone, Schengen and an EU army might not be that compelling. What happens in a second Scottish Independence referendum or if Corbyn does actually manage to win a general election will also be critical. The EU might, like Obama threatened to do at Cameron’s behest, put us at the back of the queue.
I would hope reasonable people give Brexit, if it happens, a decent chance and allow the Gov of the day to focus on an increasingly urgent domestic policy agenda.
Spain would have the vast majority of the local population against them enabling guerrilla warfare too.
Traditionally a gurrilla war has required more than 2.6 square miles within which to operate.
Plenty of tightly packed in buildings to shoot from and locals know the territory
You really need to stop and think for at least a minute or two before posting on here.
Nothing wrong with that comment especially with RAF air support and the SAS and parachute regiment quickly sent to the territory too
With respect you are talking utter and complete nonsense.
Even discussing war between Spain and the UK is beyond belief
This thread is a perfect response to the idea that even HMQ can bring common sense to the disaster that is Brexit
You are best going back to quoting polls that you think prove some point or other
Well of course it is extremely unlikely but the armed forces have to be prepared for anything and given the only wars we would now ever be likely to fight on our own outside NATO, the UN or without the USA would be against Spain over Gibraltar or Argentina over the Falklands our military have to be prepared if say a nationalist government came to power there or a military dictatorship took over either again
It is not worth even discussing - brexit is driving people insane
The military war game all the time, Brexit or no Brexit
They don't wargame fighting Spain for Gibraltar. The whole discussion is nonsense.
Of course we can go to War with them if they invade our territory and the UK military is still bigger and more effective than the Spanish military.
Argentina invaded the Falklands when we were in the EEC, fortunately the Argentine President is now a moderate not a military dictator as then
First off, Spain isn't going to do anything. Second, we are leaving the EU not NATO and the prospect of one NATO country attacking another isn't going to go well for the aggressor. Washington would put all sorts of pressure on Madrid to call off the attack and the Spanish Government would likely collapse.
The notion of a Spanish attack on Gibraltar would be described on alternatehistory.com as ASB (Alien Space Bats) or just plain silly.
It doesn't seem especially likely, but just imagine the Spanish chose to use our preoccupation with other things and our weakest international position since 1956 to achieve one of their objectives. The military on the rock can't stop a Spanish occupation. What would the UK government do if it happened? It's a useful thought experiment for showing how leaving the EU reduces our standing in the world.
It has nothing to do with us leaving the EU - Why on earth do you think that makes one jot of difference?
If even Mother Leadsom is conceding the need for delay, surely Betfair's 'not going to leave the EU on 29 March, @ 1.25, is close to free money.
Only if you think No Deal is no risk.
Personally, I can see no chance of the EU accepting a temporary backstop, or of May accepting permanant CU, so see little reason for a second MV on the Deal to be different to the first.
No Deal on 29th March is the default so should not be discounted as a possibility.
Spain would have the vast majority of the local population against them enabling guerrilla warfare too.
Traditionally a gurrilla war has required more than 2.6 square miles within which to operate.
Plenty of tightly packed in buildings to shoot from and locals know the territory
You really need to stop and think for at least a minute or two before posting on here.
Nothing wrong with that comment especially with RAF air support and the SAS and parachute regiment quickly sent to the territory too
With respect you are talking utter and complete nonsense.
Even discussing war between Spain and the UK is beyond belief
This thread is a perfect response to the idea that even HMQ can bring common sense to the disaster that is Brexit
You are best going back to quoting polls that you think prove some point or other
Well of course it is extremely unlikely but the armed forces have to be prepared for anything and given the only wars we would now ever be likely to fight on our own outside NATO, the UN or without the USA would be against Spain over Gibraltar or Argentina over the Falklands our military have to be prepared if say a nationalist government came to power there or a military dictatorship took over either again
It is not worth even discussing - brexit is driving people insane
The military war game all the time, Brexit or no Brexit
They don't wargame fighting Spain for Gibraltar. The whole discussion is nonsense.
Next you'll be telling us that the citizens of Gibraltar would surrender/die long before they became hardened guerilla fighters equipped and able to fend off professional soldiers.
Incidentally, having been to Gib, I think it would be quite a hard place to take, if there was a determined battle on both sides. The isthmus that connects it is very narrow, so the Spanish would presumably have to attack it by sea. They’d be obvious targets for heavy bombardment. Once on the Rock there could be Stalingrad type battles for every square yard. It’s a labyrinthine place.
Sure, if Spain committed enough troops, they would win. But then we would drop a nuke on Madrid and Barcelona, and what the fuck could they do then? Nothing. They’d just have to accept it, and watch an English team win the Champions League for the next ten years.
I'm more pessimistic. I can see it ending in stalemate and partition. Everybody loses - as so often in war.
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they did again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
And yet b are organising with the intention of campaigning on the issue in the long run.
Things have changed. In fact I think if the leavers were smart they would be pushing for a second referendum while they can still win it.
The clock starts tickng in with all the opt outs. Once they go you are looking at a rump Europhile support of probably less than 30%.
If we actually Brexit I don’t think any party would dare to call a referendum for a decade. Remember we are going to be negotiating our FTA with the EU for the next few years, for a start, whatever happens (if we do indeed Leave).
However - and I have made this point before - I can easily see a future Labour government putting, say, EFTA or EEA membership in its manifesto, and thus we rejoin the SM and maybe even the CU without a plebiscite. Bingo. Indeed I would say this is more likely than not within the next ten years.
I think there is a majority in the Commons for a Remain v Deal referendum and extending Article 50 as a last resort to avoid No Deal.
I also agree if we do leave we would only be likely to rejoin the EEA and Customs Union rather than the full EU
I used to think there was a maj for a 2nd vote, now I am less sure. What’s more likely is indefinite extension. Endless can kicking. Both parties want to avoid the horrible split that Actually Deciding entails. I can see Brexit being postponed so much all sides eventually agree on some kind of Associate Membership, and we wont be sure we ever Brexited at all.
E.g. There is talk on Twitter of the French getting the wobbles about No Deal, and suddenly being much more conciliatory, and asking Britain to extend.....
Certainly if the Cooper and Spelman amendments pass next week that is very plausible
Spain would have the vast majority of the local population against them enabling guerrilla warfare too.
Traditionally a gurrilla war has required more than 2.6 square miles within which to operate.
Plenty of tightly packed in buildings to shoot from and locals know the territory
You really need to stop and think for at least a minute or two before posting on here.
Nothing wrong with that comment especially with RAF air support and the SAS and parachute regiment quickly sent to the territory too
With respect you are talking utter and complete nonsense.
Even discussing war between Spain and the UK is beyond belief
This thread is a perfect response to the idea that even HMQ can bring common sense to the disaster that is Brexit
You are best going back to quoting polls that you think prove some point or other
Well of course it is extremely unlikely but the armed forces have to be prepared for anything and given the only wars we would now ever be likely to fight on our own outside NATO, the UN or without the USA would be against Spain over Gibraltar or Argentina over the Falklands our military have to be prepared if say a nationalist government came to power there or a military dictatorship took over either again
It is not worth even discussing - brexit is driving people insane
The military war game all the time, Brexit or no Brexit
They don't wargame fighting Spain for Gibraltar. The whole discussion is nonsense.
I am sure they do actually especially as we would have to do it on our own as we did defending the Falklands without doing it alongside the US NATO or the UN as would normally be the case
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
Sort of agree with this.
Leaving the EU is a MASSIVE decision, hence why the process of doing so is proving harrowing. It was always going to be. You don't split from your partner of 45 years without going through the emotional mangle. Not unless the relationship never meant much to you anyway. In which case you are a fraud and very shallow. And that is not Blighty.
So, once the deed is finally done, there will not be the appetite (bar on the europhile fringe) for seeking to reverse it anytime soon. Much time will need to pass, memories of how divisive leaving was will need to fade, before rejoining can be contemplated with any equanimity. How much time? 25 years at the very least.
The one caveat I have to this would be if Brexit turns out to be a disaster in economic terms. If it is a disaster, and this becomes clear quite quickly, then, OK, I guess it is not inconceivable that we could be knocking on the door, with a bunch of flowers and a sheepish grin, in say 2025.
It's already a disaster in economic terms. The EMA story posted and ignored by everyone on here on its own is a significant blow to one of our major industries. I got my first four figure order for my business as a result of contacts made at a meeting hosted at the EMA - I might well have never succeeded without that order. Business is all about connections and contacts, and we are deliberately cutting ourselves off from important ones.
Spain would have the vast majority of the local population against them enabling guerrilla warfare too.
Traditionally a gurrilla war has required more than 2.6 square miles within which to operate.
Plenty of tightly packed in buildings to shoot from and locals know the territory
You really need to stop and think for at least a minute or two before posting on here.
Nothing wrong with that comment especially with RAF air support and the SAS and parachute regiment quickly sent to the territory too
With respect you are talking utter and complete nonsense.
Even discussing war between Spain and the UK is beyond belief
This thread is a perfect response to the idea that even HMQ can bring common sense to the disaster that is Brexit
You are best going back to quoting polls that you think prove some point or other
Well of course it is extremely unlikely but the armed forces have to be prepared for anything and given the only wars we would now ever be likely to fight on our own outside NATO, the UN or without the USA would be against Spain over Gibraltar or Argentina over the Falklands our military have to be prepared if say a nationalist government came to power there or a military dictatorship took over either again
It is not worth even discussing - brexit is driving people insane
It's driven me madder than Nelson Mandella's shirt drawer.
Spain would have the vast majority of the local population against them enabling guerrilla warfare too.
Traditionally a gurrilla war has required more than 2.6 square miles within which to operate.
Plenty of tightly packed in buildings to shoot from and locals know the territory
You really need to stop and think for at least a minute or two before posting on here.
Nothing wrong with that comment especially with RAF air support and the SAS and parachute regiment quickly sent to the territory too
With respect you are talking utter and some point or other
Well of course it is extremely unlikely but the armed forces have to be prepared for anything and given the only wars we would now ever be likely to fight on our own outside NATO, the ither again
It is not worth even discussing - brexit is driving people insane
The military war game all the time, Brexit or no Brexit
They don't wargame fighting Spain for Gibraltar. The whole discussion is nonsense.
Next you'll be telling us that the citizens of Gibraltar would surrender/die long before they became hardened guerilla fighters equipped and able to fend off professional soldiers.
The citizens of Gibraltar already have their own garrison, the Royal Gibraltar Regiment and would be supported by the SAS, the parachute regiment and heavy bombing and missile raids launched on mainland Spain from HMS Queen Elizabeth and British submarines
It's already a disaster in economic terms. The EMA story posted and ignored by everyone on here on its own is a significant blow to one of our major industries. I got my first four figure order for my business as a result of contacts made at a meeting hosted at the EMA - I might well have never succeeded without that order. Business is all about connections and contacts, and we are deliberately cutting ourselves off from important ones.
It's already a disaster in economic terms. The EMA story posted and ignored by everyone on here on its own is a significant blow to one of our major industries. I got my first four figure order for my business as a result of contacts made at a meeting hosted at the EMA - I might well have never succeeded without that order. Business is all about connections and contacts, and we are deliberately cutting ourselves off from important ones.
Post Corbyn Labour will undoubetdly pursue rejoin for the same reason as banning fox hunting: because it enrages the worst sort of tory.
In which case they will condemn themselves to permanent opposition. Enraging a tiny minority of toffs is nothing compared to annoying a vast proportion of the population who, even if they didn't vote to Leave, will still be sick and tired of the whole thing and want to get on with whatever the new relationship is.
In this way, so long as we actually leave, all this idiocy over the last two years will have helped the Eurosceptics. It makes it far less likely there will be support for reopening the issue again for another 40 years. If leaving had been a smooth process then people would be far more likely to look at changing status again far sooner.
And yet before the referendum I knew a handful of really anti-EU people - though I avoided the subject with them. I knew literally one pro-EU person - a Lib Dem councillor - and again I made sure not to bring it up.
Now I know at least a dozen firmly pro-EUers, some of whom are organising with the intention of campaigning on the issue in the long run.
Things have changed. In fact I think if the leavers were smart they would be pushing for a second referendum while they can still win it.
The clock starts ticking against rejoin as soon as we leave. Indeed I would suggest that because of the rules for new countries, if we actually leave the requirements for rejoining would be so opposed in the UK that there would be absolutely no chance at all. The country was split 50:50 on staying in with all the opt outs. Once they go you are looking at a rump Europhile support of probably less than 30%.
If we actually Brexit I don’t think any party would dare to call a referendum for a decade. Remember we are going to be negotiating our FTA with the EU for the next few years, for a start, whatever happens (if we do indeed Leave).
However - and I have made this point before - I can easily see a future Labour government putting, say, EFTA or EEA membership in its manifesto, and thus we rejoin the SM and maybe even the CU without a plebiscite. Bingo. Indeed I would say this is more likely than not within the next ten years.
Yes. No battling of whole nebulous in out thing at once once out. Rejoin will be via salami tactics. And it will actually be easy.
I think Sean Fear makes a very good point: that the Remainers are much more effective in parliament than the Leavers, and for this reason Remainers may well get to reverse Brexit, after all.
Put it another way, the mad or stupid Remainers are mainly outside parliament (from Adonis to Grayling to all the lunatic FBPE-ers). The Remainers in parliament are smart and/or cunning, from Grieve to Cooper. By contrast some of the worst and stupidest Leavers - looking at you Mr Francois - are Tory MPs, while the best Leaver brains, like D Cummings, are not politicians at all.
For this reason I am beginning to fear I will lose my Very Large Bet with williamglenn of this here parish
You deserve to lose solely because of the paucity of logic to justify your vote in the first place. Within 48 hours of casting your vote for leave you were on here admitting you had f**ked up big time.
Fuck off you incontinent old git.
Lol @ truth hurts.
It's all on record.
I’m a bipolar alcoholic, with a known history of completely changing my mind every six seconds. So, no, your histrionic rebuke did not “hurt”. It bored. That’s your problem. You’re just, ah, a bit boring. Sorry.
At least we both recognise the low value of your opinions.
What maybe something to bear in mind is that Corbyn, if he were to become Prime Minister, may find himself trapped in a position where rejoining may be the least worst option. A non-disastrous Brexit (even one that makes us poorer than we would have been for generations and betrays our future) probably means Corbyn loses the next election, perhaps narrowly, but loses, as the Tories would have unified to some degree temporarily, would get some dividend for the achievement, however dubious its reality, and there'd be an element of a return to normalcy that wouldn't help the party led by someone as unpopular as him among the public.
So, for him to become PM, Brexit needs to turn out badly so voters sceptical of him still turn out to vote Labour and even some Tories switch to give him a chance to do better.
But then you run into the problem that there just isn't a better Brexit on the table for Labour economically that doesn't jump back into the single market and effectively become BINO. So Labour would be left with a tanking or flatlining post-tanking economy, and lots of spending promises to keep with diminished revenues. Worse, a big plank of Labour's programme is to go after big business, both on tax and regulation. Companies already struggling with the Brexit shock really aren't going to respond to a tax hike and threats. You'd be in a death spiral that was set off by a bad Brexit, but that Corbyn's policies would worsen even as it tried to dig itself out by throwing money around.
I get the feeling some around Corbyn are licking their lips at the idea of a Bennite siege economy, but the rest of the left aren't. At that point, he'd surely be under pressure to rejoin and use the dividend to fund the goodies that are the bit about Corbynism people actually are attracted to, rather the economic nationalism, socialism in one country that he's long believed in, but that would be an utter disaster as a response to Brexit. He'd either have to do an EEA/EFTA deal, in which case, there'd be huge pressure to try and rejoin, probably via a referendum.
If even Mother Leadsom is conceding the need for delay, surely Betfair's 'not going to leave the EU on 29 March, @ 1.25, is close to free money.
Not really. It depends as it always has done on the UE accepting it They have said all along they will not unless there is a good reason to do so. Not being able to make up our minds is not a good reason.
At this moment the only way I can see us realistically delaying is if May gets the deal in some form through Parliament and time is needed to complete the legislation.
Or if MP's finally screw their courage to the sticking point, and revoke A50.
I consider that us Remaining rather than a delay. That will be the actual effect.
SaJav (is that a thing?) sets out EU immigration plans in case of no deal - three-year temporary leave available for those who need more than the standard three months:
Comments
I am not saying this is what will happen but what could happen.
Even discussing war between Spain and the UK is beyond belief
This thread is a perfect response to the idea that even HMQ can bring common sense to the disaster that is Brexit
You are best going back to quoting polls that you think prove some point or other
Leaving the EU is a MASSIVE decision, hence why the process of doing so is proving harrowing. It was always going to be. You don't split from your partner of 45 years without going through the emotional mangle. Not unless the relationship never meant much to you anyway. In which case you are a fraud and very shallow. And that is not Blighty.
So, once the deed is finally done, there will not be the appetite (bar on the europhile fringe) for seeking to reverse it anytime soon. Much time will need to pass, memories of how divisive leaving was will need to fade, before rejoining can be contemplated with any equanimity. How much time? 25 years at the very least.
The one caveat I have to this would be if Brexit turns out to be a disaster in economic terms. If it is a disaster, and this becomes clear quite quickly, then, OK, I guess it is not inconceivable that we could be knocking on the door, with a bunch of flowers and a sheepish grin, in say 2025.
It's all on record.
I also agree if we do leave we would only be likely to rejoin the EEA and Customs Union rather than the full EU
However, the EU has problems of its own which will not be helped by Brexit and even if it retains the attractiveness its supporters claim for it, the idea of rejoining if that involves no opt-outs, no budget rebate, and having to sign up to membership of the Eurozone, Schengen and an EU army might not be that compelling. What happens in a second Scottish Independence referendum or if Corbyn does actually manage to win a general election will also be critical. The EU might, like Obama threatened to do at Cameron’s behest, put us at the back of the queue.
I would hope reasonable people give Brexit, if it happens, a decent chance and allow the Gov of the day to focus on an increasingly urgent domestic policy agenda.
Personally, I can see no chance of the EU accepting a temporary backstop, or of May accepting permanant CU, so see little reason for a second MV on the Deal to be different to the first.
No Deal on 29th March is the default so should not be discounted as a possibility.
So, for him to become PM, Brexit needs to turn out badly so voters sceptical of him still turn out to vote Labour and even some Tories switch to give him a chance to do better.
But then you run into the problem that there just isn't a better Brexit on the table for Labour economically that doesn't jump back into the single market and effectively become BINO. So Labour would be left with a tanking or flatlining post-tanking economy, and lots of spending promises to keep with diminished revenues. Worse, a big plank of Labour's programme is to go after big business, both on tax and regulation. Companies already struggling with the Brexit shock really aren't going to respond to a tax hike and threats. You'd be in a death spiral that was set off by a bad Brexit, but that Corbyn's policies would worsen even as it tried to dig itself out by throwing money around.
I get the feeling some around Corbyn are licking their lips at the idea of a Bennite siege economy, but the rest of the left aren't. At that point, he'd surely be under pressure to rejoin and use the dividend to fund the goodies that are the bit about Corbynism people actually are attracted to, rather the economic nationalism, socialism in one country that he's long believed in, but that would be an utter disaster as a response to Brexit. He'd either have to do an EEA/EFTA deal, in which case, there'd be huge pressure to try and rejoin, probably via a referendum.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-outlines-no-deal-arrangements-for-eu-citizens?utm_source=c8c35f32-63bf-4847-a716-ceba7ecf2d50&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate