I dont really see how further royals making indirect or direct calls for unity would be more impactful than the Queen herself already having done so. It's had whatever effect it will have, Charles and the rest won't pack the same punch.
Charles Stross? The author of the fine Laundry Series, the latest of which is on my buy-list for this year? The books that are widely available online or from many fine bookshops nationwide? Oh, excellent!
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
Not convinced by this. I think people will have had enough of this debate for a couple of decades at least. By then we will be looking at a very different EU, probably with most financial decisions being made by a government based in the European Parliament (once the undemocratic rule by the unelected and unaccountable ECB becomes totally intolerable) with national Parliaments reduced to local government.
It is possible that this will look attractive if we have not made a success of our independence but I doubt it. I also think that the EU itself would need a lot of persuasion that we would not be a disruptive influence again.
The last sentence is your best point.
Leavers massively underestimate how successful they have been in making the EU a central issue of British politics. Congratulations, your monomania has become contagious and mutated.
Well, at least we won't have any more of those "noone cares about Europe" threads based on the latest Mori we used to have each month on here.
Ministers have been warned that they will be unable to defeat a cross-party move to rule out a no-deal Brexit in the Commons next week.
Senior government sources said they had all but given up trying to stop a crucial amendment to the government’s motion being passed on Tuesday. The move, which has the backing of more than 200 MPs, calls for Theresa May to rule out a no-deal Brexit. It is being proposed by the former Conservative cabinet minister Dame Caroline Spelman and Labour’s Jack Dromey.
Whips are understood to be telling Tory opponents of a no-deal Brexit that they would rather they supported this amendment than a rival move by Labour’s Yvette Cooper that would hand parliament the power to demand an extension of Article 50.
“Given where opinion is in the House no one really thinks we have a chance of defeating the Spelman amendment,” a senior government source said. “But we might be able to persuade enough of our people just to vote for that, and vote against Cooper, which is constitutionally far more significant.”
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
The halfwits cannot even decide whether to come out and yet the halfwits on here are wittering about how long it will be till England rejoins. Methinks JRM is saner than many on here.
Rejoin will not be a Labour or Con policy anytime soon - will be reserved for niche loons like the LDs, Greens or the SNP if there is such a party post Nicla (c 2020..)
Rejoin will not be a Labour or Con policy anytime soon - will be reserved for niche loons like the LDs, Greens or the SNP if there is such a party post Nicla (c 2020..)
Rejoin the EU? That really is gypsy rose lee stuff but, OK, why not.
Divorce is usually final, however this one is strange in that the separating parties will still be constantly bumping into each other, needing to chat and interact, if only to pass the time of day.
None of this will be a problem for the EU. Although the one scorned they were the dominant partner in the marriage. They will continue to enjoy a full and active life without their charismatic but difficult ex.
For Blighty, it could go one of two ways. We could forge a fulfilling and prosperous new life, exciting new places, exciting new crowd, lots of spending money, such that there is no desire to look back.
Or we could fail to do that. We might end up making no new friends, going nowhere of interest, running short of cash, feeling poor, feeling sorry for ourselves, just generally down in the dumps.
In which latter case it will be only natural for us to yearn for what we once had, especially since it is right there under our gaze, and, unless pride gets in the way, seek a reunion.
We joined the EU for economic reasons that haven’t really gone away. If anything they have got stronger. It won’t be fun politically being the junior partner to EU, bossed around by the Germans and French.
It's too late now, but we should have teamed up in the EU with the Germans, and the other countries possessing a work ethic , against France and the Mediterranean countries.
That does look to be the cunning plan - a vote to take full ownership of No Deal. As I say, it’s Corbyn’s dream scenario.
I think you have this backward SO - the EU won't want to be seen to be the roadblock. Ireland meet underside of bus coming soon.
You and I both know that won’t happen. The practical effects of this vote are that the Tories will take full ownership of No Deal and, more importantly from a political perspective, its consequences. This is exactly what Corbyn and co hoped would happen.
Not convinced by this. I think people will have had enough of this debate for a couple of decades at least. By then we will be looking at a very different EU, probably with most financial decisions being made by a government based in the European Parliament (once the undemocratic rule by the unelected and unaccountable ECB becomes totally intolerable) with national Parliaments reduced to local government.
It is possible that this will look attractive if we have not made a success of our independence but I doubt it. I also think that the EU itself would need a lot of persuasion that we would not be a disruptive influence again.
The last sentence is your best point.
Leavers massively underestimate how successful they have been in making the EU a central issue of British politics. Congratulations, your monomania has become contagious and mutated.
Well, at least we won't have any more of those "noone cares about Europe" threads based on the latest Mori we used to have each month on here.
Many of us didn't care about Europe. And now we do. And we've observed how UKIP managed to have a big influence with relatively few votes. I think rejoin will be the only item on the agenda if Brexit goes ahead.
Mr. F, that's true, but the default is for leaving. Staying in requires positive action through Parliament.
Remain MPs' cowardice is Brexit 's best hope. They long to wound, but fear to strike. But, I think they'll find some way of frustrating it, while passing the buck.
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
The halfwits cannot even decide whether to come out and yet the halfwits on here are wittering about how long it will be till England rejoins. Methinks JRM is saner than many on here.
Would you say they are more or less of a halfwit than those Scots who felt it was a great idea to vote No to stay in the EU when a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy?
That does look to be the cunning plan - a vote to take full ownership of No Deal. As I say, it’s Corbyn’s dream scenario.
I think you have this backward SO - the EU won't want to be seen to be the roadblock. Ireland meet underside of bus coming soon.
You and I both know that won’t happen. The practical effects of this vote are that the Tories will take full ownership of No Deal and, more importantly from a political perspective, its consequences. This is exactly what Corbyn and co hoped would happen.
Don't agree. A critical issue is now coming to the top of the agenda: If there is No deal who puts in a hard border? Not UK, Not Ireland (they say), EU has no power to do it by itself. Therefore, once close attention is on this issue it is obvious that if there may not be a hard border in the event of No deal, then why does there have to be such a permanently binding provision about the border in the WA.
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
The halfwits cannot even decide whether to come out and yet the halfwits on here are wittering about how long it will be till England rejoins. Methinks JRM is saner than many on here.
Would you say they are more or less of a halfwit than those Scots who felt it was a great idea to vote No to stay in the EU when a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy?
Can't remember Better Together & their various finger puppets ever mentioning that 'a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy'. Otoh...
Thanks as always for the thread, David. I do agree we have turned a page in our history - our rapprochement with Europe lasted 60 years (from Suez to the Referendum). The answer to our post-Imperial destiny seemed clear in the late 50s - it seems much less clear now. Do we cuddle up even more closely to a Washington whose interests and concerns are increasingly focused on the Pacific rather than the Atlantic or do we set ourselves as a genuinely independently-minded outward-looking nation trying to build a functioning nation state model for the 21st Century?
Don't know but I do know I've no desire to live either in Singapore-on-Thames or Caracas-on-Thames. It's perfectly possible to consider different options which both reward and empower but also protect, support and provide. A time for thinking perhaps?
In the more immediate, it seems May and her Party managers have once again come up with a cunning plan to preserve her and the Conservative Party, neither of which are of any importance or I would suggest relevance to this country's future.
May, the ERG and the DUP agree the Deal they WOULD like, the EU points out (as they have done repeatedly) the WA as presented is not up for further re-negotiation and when talks break down and the road to No Deal opens up, the pro-May press will blame "the nasty Europeans" for any and all dislocation in April and beyond.
And you wonder why people consider politicians and politics with distrust and cynicism.
The hope of course, as I said the other day, is the EU blinks and there is a Deal to be done which effectively shafts the Irish. If the EU doesn't blink they'll be blamed and all the traditional jingoistic nonsense mixed with personal slurs will be wheeled out.
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
The halfwits cannot even decide whether to come out and yet the halfwits on here are wittering about how long it will be till England rejoins. Methinks JRM is saner than many on here.
Would you say they are more or less of a halfwit than those Scots who felt it was a great idea to vote No to stay in the EU when a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy?
Can't remember Better Together & their various finger puppets ever mentioning that 'a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy'. Otoh...
That does look to be the cunning plan - a vote to take full ownership of No Deal. As I say, it’s Corbyn’s dream scenario.
If Labour have helped killed off EUref2 precisely the opposite, at least in the short term Labour Remainers will be furious and large numbers would defect to the LDs as the polls indicate, the Tories though would be boosted in a No Deal scenario by Leave voters returning from UKIP offsetting any Remainers lost to the LDa
Corbyn planned a tour of the marginals following the VONC. I conclude from this that he thought he would win it, believes his own hype, is out of his depth and has no idea what to do now.
He is not the Machiavelli that SO makes him out to be. He is making it up as he goes.
Corbyn planned a tour of the marginals following the VONC. I conclude from this that he thought he would win it, believes his own hype, is out of his depth and has no idea what to do now. He is not the Machiavelli that SO makes him out to be. He is making it up as he goes.
Corbyn planned a tour of the marginals following the VONC. I conclude from this that he thought he would win it, believes his own hype, is out of his depth and has no idea what to do now.
He is not the Machiavelli that SO makes him out to be. He is making it up as he goes.
What that means for us is unpredictability.
He has a certain cunning. He 's persuaded both Leavers and Remainers that he's on their side.
"Your" Queen? Your republican slip is showing, young Sunil.
Um, my excuse is that:
1) I'm posting from southern India (33 degrees by day, 22 by night!)
2) It's Republic Day
3) Monarchy = jobs for life = Socialism, therefore Monarchism = Socialism!
Rubbish, the only things the Tories have always stood for are the monarchy and the landed gentry.
Even free trade is a liberal not Tory concept ultimately indeed the Tories only replaced the Liberals as the party of business in the 20th century as Labour became the main Tory opponents on a socialist platform.
Thanks as always for the thread, David. I do agree we have turned a page in our history - our rapprochement with Europe lasted 60 years (from Suez to the Referendum). The answer to our post-Imperial destiny seemed clear in the late 50s - it seems much less clear now. Do we cuddle up even more closely to a Washington whose interests and concerns are increasingly focused on the Pacific rather than the Atlantic or do we set ourselves as a genuinely independently-minded outward-looking nation trying to build a functioning nation state model for the 21st Century?
You might as well try to build a steam engine for 21st century.
Corbyn planned a tour of the marginals following the VONC. I conclude from this that he thought he would win it, believes his own hype, is out of his depth and has no idea what to do now.
He is not the Machiavelli that SO makes him out to be. He is making it up as he goes.
What that means for us is unpredictability.
Yes, he's not Machiavelli. But he has been, and may continue to be, incredibly lucky. He will probably stumble into being PM later this year despite his own efforts not because of them.
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
The halfwits cannot even decide whether to come out and yet the halfwits on here are wittering about how long it will be till England rejoins. Methinks JRM is saner than many on here.
Would you say they are more or less of a halfwit than those Scots who felt it was a great idea to vote No to stay in the EU when a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy?
Can't remember Better Together & their various finger puppets ever mentioning that 'a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy'. Otoh...
Well a lot of us in England never thought the Tories would ever go ahead with the referendum. Or once they called it, that they would lose it. There were even some of us - or me at least - who thought the chances of leave winning were so slim they considered voting leave just to give Cameron a kick for wasting everyone's time.
Corbyn planned a tour of the marginals following the VONC. I conclude from this that he thought he would win it, believes his own hype, is out of his depth and has no idea what to do now.
He is not the Machiavelli that SO makes him out to be. He is making it up as he goes.
What that means for us is unpredictability.
He has a certain cunning. He 's persuaded both Leavers and Remainers that he's on their side.
That’s more Mays achievement than his. All he had to do was shut up. She is so bad and so alienating to non believers, even Corbyn provides a life raft.
Corbyn planned a tour of the marginals following the VONC. I conclude from this that he thought he would win it, believes his own hype, is out of his depth and has no idea what to do now. He is not the Machiavelli that SO makes him out to be. He is making it up as he goes.
A bit like the Tories then?
They're not making it up as they go along, they are just frozen in place repeating the same actions over and over again. It's like they are stick in Groundhog day only for everyone else time is moving normally.
Thanks as always for the thread, David. I do agree we have turned a page in our history - our rapprochement with Europe lasted 60 years (from Suez to the Referendum). The answer to our post-Imperial destiny seemed clear in the late 50s - it seems much less clear now. Do we cuddle up even more closely to a Washington whose interests and concerns are increasingly focused on the Pacific rather than the Atlantic or do we set ourselves as a genuinely independently-minded outward-looking nation trying to build a functioning nation state model for the 21st Century?
Don't know but I do know I've no desire to live either in Singapore-on-Thames or Caracas-on-Thames. It's perfectly possible to consider different options which both reward and empower but also protect, support and provide. A time for thinking perhaps?
In the more immediate, it seems May and her Party managers have once again come up with a cunning plan to preserve her and the Conservative Party, neither of which are of any importance or I would suggest relevance to this country's future.
May, the ERG and the DUP agree the Deal they WOULD like, the EU points out (as they have done repeatedly) the WA as presented is not up for further re-negotiation and when talks break down and the road to No Deal opens up, the pro-May press will blame "the nasty Europeans" for any and all dislocation in April and beyond.
And you wonder why people consider politicians and politics with distrust and cynicism.
The hope of course, as I said the other day, is the EU blinks and there is a Deal to be done which effectively shafts the Irish. If the EU doesn't blink they'll be blamed and all the traditional jingoistic nonsense mixed with personal slurs will be wheeled out.
Yeah, but I don't think the blame-the-EU stuff is really going to work. Most sane people accept we decided to leave the Club, not the other way round.
Btw, if you don't fancy Singapore or Caracas on Thames, have you considered moving closer to the River Lee? It's quite nice around Stratford now. (That's the one in East London, not the tourist hell-hole in Warwickshire.)
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
The halfwits cannot even decide whether to come out and yet the halfwits on here are wittering about how long it will be till England rejoins. Methinks JRM is saner than many on here.
Would you say they are more or less of a halfwit than those Scots who felt it was a great idea to vote No to stay in the EU when a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy?
Can't remember Better Together & their various finger puppets ever mentioning that 'a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy'. Otoh...
Charles Stross? The author of the fine Laundry Series, the latest of which is on my buy-list for this year? The books that are widely available online or from many fine bookshops nationwide? Oh, excellent!
The Laundry Series started well and has rapidly disappeared up its own arse. The same applies to his Merchant Princes series. Stand alone books such as Singularity Sky and Accelerando are significantly better.
That does look to be the cunning plan - a vote to take full ownership of No Deal. As I say, it’s Corbyn’s dream scenario.
I think you have this backward SO - the EU won't want to be seen to be the roadblock. Ireland meet underside of bus coming soon.
You and I both know that won’t happen. The practical effects of this vote are that the Tories will take full ownership of No Deal and, more importantly from a political perspective, its consequences. This is exactly what Corbyn and co hoped would happen.
I think that is correct and it will work if we do go down the No Deal route. Corbyn knows that economic chaos is his best chance of a win and No Deal is the best route to that end. He will half-heartedly oppose it while willing on at the same time.
I have noted many times that there is a strand in British thought that actively refuses to percieve Ireland properly: indeed, I've analogised it to hemispatial neglect.
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
The halfwits cannot even decide whether to come out and yet the halfwits on here are wittering about how long it will be till England rejoins. Methinks JRM is saner than many on here.
Would you say they are more or less of a halfwit than those Scots who felt it was a great idea to vote No to stay in the EU when a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy?
Can't remember Better Together & their various finger puppets ever mentioning that 'a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy'. Otoh...
Well a lot of us in England never thought the Tories would ever go ahead with the referendum. Or once they called it, that they would lose it. There were even some of us - or me at least - who thought the chances of leave winning were so slim they considered voting leave just to give Cameron a kick for wasting everyone's time.
Up till about 4am on the night of the count, I thought Remain would win.
I was at the Luton count, and we had little information about what was happening elsewhere. I knew we'd carried Luton, but I thought the margin was about 54/46, rather than the actual 57/43. I also knew Remain had won very big in Wandsworth, so it wasn't till I switched on my car radio that I realised Leave was winning.
"Your" Queen? Your republican slip is showing, young Sunil.
Um, my excuse is that:
1) I'm posting from southern India (33 degrees by day, 22 by night!)
2) It's Republic Day
3) Monarchy = jobs for life = Socialism, therefore Monarchism = Socialism!
Rubbish, the only things the Tories have always stood for are the monarchy and the landed gentry.
Even free trade is a liberal not Tory concept ultimately indeed the Tories only replaced the Liberals as the party of business in the 20th century as Labour became the main Tory opponents on a socialist platform.
Corbyn planned a tour of the marginals following the VONC. I conclude from this that he thought he would win it, believes his own hype, is out of his depth and has no idea what to do now.
He is not the Machiavelli that SO makes him out to be. He is making it up as he goes.
What that means for us is unpredictability.
Not even Machiavelli could have imagined a scenario in which the Tories would end up effectively voting for a No Deal Brexit. Corbyn’s just immensely lucky.
Corbyn planned a tour of the marginals following the VONC. I conclude from this that he thought he would win it, believes his own hype, is out of his depth and has no idea what to do now.
He is not the Machiavelli that SO makes him out to be. He is making it up as he goes.
What that means for us is unpredictability.
Not even Machiavelli could have imagined a scenario in which the Tories would end up effectively voting for a No Deal Brexit. Corbyn’s just immensely lucky.
Only if he backs EUref2 with a Remain option.
Otherwise with the vast majority of Tory voters Leave voters anyway and preferring No Deal to Remain it is Corbyn putting his base more at risk given most Labour voters back EUref2 with a Remain option and could go LD if he refuses to back one
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
The halfwits cannot even decide whether to come out and yet the halfwits on here are wittering about how long it will be till England rejoins. Methinks JRM is saner than many on here.
Would you say they are more or less of a halfwit than those Scots who felt it was a great idea to vote No to stay in the EU when a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy?
Can't remember Better Together & their various finger puppets ever mentioning that 'a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy'. Otoh...
Well a lot of us in England never thought the Tories would ever go ahead with the referendum. Or once they called it, that they would lose it. There were even some of us - or me at least - who thought the chances of leave winning were so slim they considered voting leave just to give Cameron a kick for wasting everyone's time.
I'd guess a few 2014 No voters thought the same (including, as pointed out below, Ruth Davidson).
Charles Stross? The author of the fine Laundry Series, the latest of which is on my buy-list for this year? The books that are widely available online or from many fine bookshops nationwide? Oh, excellent!
The Laundry Series started well and has rapidly disappeared up its own arse. The same applies to his Merchant Princes series. Stand alone books such as Singularity Sky and Accelerando are significantly better.
Weirdly, I think the Laundry Files has gotten better: it started as an occult version of The Office and has now gone full Tom Clancy, with an ongoing war and an overthrown government. I agree that it's become clotted: The Delirium Brief was people sitting in rooms explaining the British constitution to each other. But I like books with detailed infodumps, so yay.
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
The halfwits cannot even decide whether to come out and yet the halfwits on here are wittering about how long it will be till England rejoins. Methinks JRM is saner than many on here.
Would you say they are more or less of a halfwit than those Scots who felt it was a great idea to vote No to stay in the EU when a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy?
Can't remember Better Together & their various finger puppets ever mentioning that 'a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy'. Otoh...
Well a lot of us in England never thought the Tories would ever go ahead with the referendum. Or once they called it, that they would lose it. There were even some of us - or me at least - who thought the chances of leave winning were so slim they considered voting leave just to give Cameron a kick for wasting everyone's time.
Up till about 4am on the night of the count, I thought Remain would win.
I was at the Luton count, and we had little information about what was happening elsewhere. I knew we'd carried Luton, but I thought the margin was about 54/46, rather than the actual 57/43. I also knew Remain had won very big in Wandsworth, so it wasn't till I switched on my car radio that I realised Leave was winning.
It was the betting opportunity to end them all. But having said that, until quite late in the night it wasn't clear just how many leave votes London was going to deliver. There was a point when I was thinking 'we're going to need more decimal points'. It's easy to look back with hindsight but it was really up in the air for quite a few hours. I wish I'd kept an hour by note of what I was feeling.
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
The halfwits cannot even decide whether to come out and yet the halfwits on here are wittering about how long it will be till England rejoins. Methinks JRM is saner than many on here.
Would you say they are more or less of a halfwit than those Scots who felt it was a great idea to vote No to stay in the EU when a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy?
Can't remember Better Together & their various finger puppets ever mentioning that 'a Brexit referendum was already Tory policy'. Otoh...
That was my point. As someone who was backing Yes here at the time, I thought and still feel that the fact Better Together got away with that was pathetic.
"The Countdown co-presenter Rachel Riley has revealed she is to be given extra security on the Channel 4 quiz show after being targeted with online abuse over her criticism of antisemitism within the Labour party.
The Oxford mathematics graduate said she had been targeted by Labour supporters on Twitter for her criticisms of the party and its leader, Jeremy Corbyn."
I have noted many times that there is a strand in British thought that actively refuses to percieve Ireland properly: indeed, I've analogised it to hemispatial neglect.
Corbyn planned a tour of the marginals following the VONC. I conclude from this that he thought he would win it, believes his own hype, is out of his depth and has no idea what to do now.
He is not the Machiavelli that SO makes him out to be. He is making it up as he goes.
What that means for us is unpredictability.
He has a certain cunning. He 's persuaded both Leavers and Remainers that he's on their side.
Indeed.
Corby has done better than anyone ever expected (whether by luck or judgment).
And if we Leave, he may very well still come out of Brexit with no spot of blood on his clean hands.
And if we Remain, then there is no question that the furious divisions in the Tory party will hand Corby No 10.
Seems to me that he has played a blinder.
Jonathan is quite wrong in thinking if a Vanilla Europhile like Balls or Cooper or whoever were in charge, Labour would be better placed. They would not.
As far as Rejoin being in the next Labour manifesto is concerned, that will, I think, depend very much on when the next GE is.
If it is in the next year or two, then it will probably be too soon, especially as Corbyn is likely to still be leader. However, come 2022, with a new leader (Corbyn is odds against lasting beyond 2020 according to Betfair) and three years into the expected immediate downside and perhaps chaotic aftermath of Brexit, then I think having Rejoin as a manifesto commitment will be hard to resist.
The Labour Manifesto is very likely to include Customs Union and Compliance with Single Market regulation. Indeed the FTA if the WA passes would most likely include that too.
It is a short step from there to Rejoin, so that we can have a say in the deals and rules.
A short step makes it technically easier to rejoin, but perhaps harder to mobilise and win a vote.
Corbyn planned a tour of the marginals following the VONC. I conclude from this that he thought he would win it, believes his own hype, is out of his depth and has no idea what to do now.
He is not the Machiavelli that SO makes him out to be. He is making it up as he goes.
What that means for us is unpredictability.
He has a certain cunning. He 's persuaded both Leavers and Remainers that he's on their side.
Indeed.
Corby has done better than anyone ever expected (whether by luck or judgment).
And if we Leave, he may very well still come out of Brexit with no spot of blood on his clean hands.
And if we Remain, then there is no question that the furious divisions in the Tory party will hand Corby No 10.
Seems to me that he has played a blinder.
Jonathan is quite wrong in thinking if a Vanilla Europhile like Balls or Cooper or whoever were in charge, Labour would be better placed. They would not.
Aside from whether they would have carried it out better there a lot of MPs who would have taken roughly the path Corbyn has Cooper included. I think they could come round to it but the Labour party isn't filled with people demanding a second referendum there are 'just' a decent number (sub 100 publically) in the party who do want it.
Edit: Also if these MPs had been leader themselves they might not have taken up that position but a more compromise position which is closer to Corbyn's position.
As far as Rejoin being in the next Labour manifesto is concerned, that will, I think, depend very much on when the next GE is.
If it is in the next year or two, then it will probably be too soon, especially as Corbyn is likely to still be leader. However, come 2022, with a new leader (Corbyn is odds against lasting beyond 2020 according to Betfair) and three years into the expected immediate downside and perhaps chaotic aftermath of Brexit, then I think having Rejoin as a manifesto commitment will be hard to resist.
The Labour Manifesto is very likely to include Customs Union and Compliance with Single Market regulation. Indeed the FTA if the WA passes would most likely include that too.
It is a short step from there to Rejoin, so that we can have a say in the deals and rules.
A short step makes it technically easier to rejoin, but perhaps harder to mobilise and win a vote.
Would we have to have another referendum if it was in their manifesto that we would apply to re-join. If they won a GE, they would have a mandate to re-join.
Thanks as always for the thread, David. I do agree we have turned a page in our history - our rapprochement with Europe lasted 60 years (from Suez to the Referendum). The answer to our post-Imperial destiny seemed clear in the late 50s - it seems much less clear now. Do we cuddle up even more closely to a Washington whose interests and concerns are increasingly focused on the Pacific rather than the Atlantic or do we set ourselves as a genuinely independently-minded outward-looking nation trying to build a functioning nation state model for the 21st Century?
You might as well try to build a steam engine for 21st century.
Do you know how a nuclear power plant works? It’s a steam engine.
Thanks as always for the thread, David. I do agree we have turned a page in our history - our rapprochement with Europe lasted 60 years (from Suez to the Referendum). The answer to our post-Imperial destiny seemed clear in the late 50s - it seems much less clear now. Do we cuddle up even more closely to a Washington whose interests and concerns are increasingly focused on the Pacific rather than the Atlantic or do we set ourselves as a genuinely independently-minded outward-looking nation trying to build a functioning nation state model for the 21st Century?
You might as well try to build a steam engine for 21st century.
Do you know how a nuclear power plant works? It’s a steam engine.
But I believe we have failed to build any in the 21st century!
On Topic. Totally agree David. Cameron has unsettled this nation once and for all, tribalizing EU membership in British politics, hastening break up of UK, and as time passes in the post brexit world, increasing strain and both Labour and Tory parties to split over what EU policies to put in future manifestos, so probably destroyed both those parties and possibly first past the post. Nice work Cammo!
I think Cam got it wrong by underestimating the extent EU membership was in “relationship” in minds of voters with what they don’t like, the more negative impacts of globalisation, disconnect between political elites (London) and their own run down communities, immigration, the scary slip to post industrial society.
Those future manifestos wont have promises for another in out referendum, no GE promises for a People’s Vote, once The Murrison Amendment passes this week the People’s Vote will be dead. Instead we will return to closer ties with EU with salami tactics. Starting with CU.
First time I heard salami tactics in Yes Minister I loved it, because its just so true about how to actually get your way. Machiavellian, but not strictly in that political sense of power, almost admitting lack of power over a situation. More like how Gandalf didn’t unsettle Beorn by having dwarfs roll up gradually, not on mass.
For example. When we brexit without CU this spring early summer, how long until we are back in the customs union? Nothing to stop parties adding this to their GE manifesto’s. A majority, perhaps plurality of voters would be in favour, so its not going to harm anyone’s chances of winning a GE with that in their manifesto. But I cant see it in any Conservative manifesto any time soon, so there’s clear water between them and other parties. It would be interesting to see on what grounds the Torys fight it, they cant use disrespecting the 2016 vote because we will have brexited based on 2016 vote, hence whole new ball game, fair play for parties to add it to their manifestos and fight GE on signing up to the CU.
I reckon not much more than 8 years, that’s two GE, perhaps even less.
Any betting markets on what point Britain signs up to CU, EEA etc? The longer odds will be the bet we place today, VFM the long haul?
I think the speed and intensity of a Rejoin movement will be determined by two things. Obviously, the success or otherwise of Brexit. But also, the deal on offer and attitude of the EU. From their stance during the current process, I should imagine it’ll be Barnier’s successor flicking through a rule book, tearing out the form at the back with “sign here for Schengen and the Euro” and pointing us to the back of a queue behind Ukraine and Turkey. In which case, Brexit will have to have put us on our knees for the campaign to get any legs.
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
Not sure about Schengen but nobody has any interest in making unwilling countries with weirdly divergent economies join the Euro. They've got enough problems with the countries that wanted to be in it.
Comments
https://twitter.com/willardfoxton/status/1089082407402254338?s=21
Of course, it may be as bad for the EU as us, and it may really be the case that “they need us more than we need them”, and they’ll come begging with a Cameron+ gold-plated offer. But I’m not holding my breath.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1088114620005576704
https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/1089106992285794305
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1088483566135271426
Because they want a deal. Better 99% of the withdrawal agreement than 0%.
https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1089097002032480258
Nothing enrages remainers like progress towards a deal though.
Typical Labour dishonesty..
Divorce is usually final, however this one is strange in that the separating parties will still be constantly bumping into each other, needing to chat and interact, if only to pass the time of day.
None of this will be a problem for the EU. Although the one scorned they were the dominant partner in the marriage. They will continue to enjoy a full and active life without their charismatic but difficult ex.
For Blighty, it could go one of two ways. We could forge a fulfilling and prosperous new life, exciting new places, exciting new crowd, lots of spending money, such that there is no desire to look back.
Or we could fail to do that. We might end up making no new friends, going nowhere of interest, running short of cash, feeling poor, feeling sorry for ourselves, just generally down in the dumps.
In which latter case it will be only natural for us to yearn for what we once had, especially since it is right there under our gaze, and, unless pride gets in the way, seek a reunion.
And would they have us back?
Of course they would! We're a catch.
May I ask why/how you ended up on Bill Maher please? You can reply in private if you wish anonymity.
Don't agree. A critical issue is now coming to the top of the agenda: If there is No deal who puts in a hard border? Not UK, Not Ireland (they say), EU has no power to do it by itself. Therefore, once close attention is on this issue it is obvious that if there may not be a hard border in the event of No deal, then why does there have to be such a permanently binding provision about the border in the WA.
https://twitter.com/UK_Together/status/506899714923843584
1) I'm posting from southern India (33 degrees by day, 22 by night!)
2) It's Republic Day
3) Monarchy = jobs for life = Socialism, therefore Monarchism = Socialism!
Thanks as always for the thread, David. I do agree we have turned a page in our history - our rapprochement with Europe lasted 60 years (from Suez to the Referendum). The answer to our post-Imperial destiny seemed clear in the late 50s - it seems much less clear now. Do we cuddle up even more closely to a Washington whose interests and concerns are increasingly focused on the Pacific rather than the Atlantic or do we set ourselves as a genuinely independently-minded outward-looking nation trying to build a functioning nation state model for the 21st Century?
Don't know but I do know I've no desire to live either in Singapore-on-Thames or Caracas-on-Thames. It's perfectly possible to consider different options which both reward and empower but also protect, support and provide. A time for thinking perhaps?
In the more immediate, it seems May and her Party managers have once again come up with a cunning plan to preserve her and the Conservative Party, neither of which are of any importance or I would suggest relevance to this country's future.
May, the ERG and the DUP agree the Deal they WOULD like, the EU points out (as they have done repeatedly) the WA as presented is not up for further re-negotiation and when talks break down and the road to No Deal opens up, the pro-May press will blame "the nasty Europeans" for any and all dislocation in April and beyond.
And you wonder why people consider politicians and politics with distrust and cynicism.
The hope of course, as I said the other day, is the EU blinks and there is a Deal to be done which effectively shafts the Irish. If the EU doesn't blink they'll be blamed and all the traditional jingoistic nonsense mixed with personal slurs will be wheeled out.
* as featured in the BBC Indian Mountain Railways series.
He is not the Machiavelli that SO makes him out to be. He is making it up as he goes.
What that means for us is unpredictability.
Even free trade is a liberal not Tory concept ultimately indeed the Tories only replaced the Liberals as the party of business in the 20th century as Labour became the main Tory opponents on a socialist platform.
Btw, if you don't fancy Singapore or Caracas on Thames, have you considered moving closer to the River Lee? It's quite nice around Stratford now. (That's the one in East London, not the tourist hell-hole in Warwickshire.)
I have noted many times that there is a strand in British thought that actively refuses to percieve Ireland properly: indeed, I've analogised it to hemispatial neglect.
I was at the Luton count, and we had little information about what was happening elsewhere. I knew we'd carried Luton, but I thought the margin was about 54/46, rather than the actual 57/43. I also knew Remain had won very big in Wandsworth, so it wasn't till I switched on my car radio that I realised Leave was winning.
Otherwise with the vast majority of Tory voters Leave voters anyway and preferring No Deal to Remain it is Corbyn putting his base more at risk given most Labour voters back EUref2 with a Remain option and could go LD if he refuses to back one
The Oxford mathematics graduate said she had been targeted by Labour supporters on Twitter for her criticisms of the party and its leader, Jeremy Corbyn."
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/jan/26/rachel-riley-countdown-extra-security-online-abuse
Corby has done better than anyone ever expected (whether by luck or judgment).
And if we Leave, he may very well still come out of Brexit with no spot of blood on his clean hands.
And if we Remain, then there is no question that the furious divisions in the Tory party will hand Corby No 10.
Seems to me that he has played a blinder.
Jonathan is quite wrong in thinking if a Vanilla Europhile like Balls or Cooper or whoever were in charge, Labour would be better placed. They would not.
Edit: Also if these MPs had been leader themselves they might not have taken up that position but a more compromise position which is closer to Corbyn's position.
My goodness, that’s absolute gold.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-france/france-ready-to-recognize-guaido-if-venezuela-doesnt-call-elections-idUSKCN1PK0CI?il=0
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1089125911033712640
But I believe we have failed to build any in the 21st century!
* Kermode review
* Best bits
I think Cam got it wrong by underestimating the extent EU membership was in “relationship” in minds of voters with what they don’t like, the more negative impacts of globalisation, disconnect between political elites (London) and their own run down communities, immigration, the scary slip to post industrial society.
Those future manifestos wont have promises for another in out referendum, no GE promises for a People’s Vote, once The Murrison Amendment passes this week the People’s Vote will be dead. Instead we will return to closer ties with EU with salami tactics. Starting with CU.
First time I heard salami tactics in Yes Minister I loved it, because its just so true about how to actually get your way. Machiavellian, but not strictly in that political sense of power, almost admitting lack of power over a situation. More like how Gandalf didn’t unsettle Beorn by having dwarfs roll up gradually, not on mass.
For example. When we brexit without CU this spring early summer, how long until we are back in the customs union? Nothing to stop parties adding this to their GE manifesto’s. A majority, perhaps plurality of voters would be in favour, so its not going to harm anyone’s chances of winning a GE with that in their manifesto. But I cant see it in any Conservative manifesto any time soon, so there’s clear water between them and other parties. It would be interesting to see on what grounds the Torys fight it, they cant use disrespecting the 2016 vote because we will have brexited based on 2016 vote, hence whole new ball game, fair play for parties to add it to their manifestos and fight GE on signing up to the CU.
I reckon not much more than 8 years, that’s two GE, perhaps even less.
Any betting markets on what point Britain signs up to CU, EEA etc? The longer odds will be the bet we place today, VFM the long haul?