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There are no good options from now on, no cost-free ones, anyway. There never were. If this point had been made 2½ years ago – and indeed at any point thereafter – we might not be where we are now. So now what?
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Did Tulip Siddiq do a "Bob Roberts" tonight as well?
It's worth repeating that there are a number of options available to those still seeking to engineer Remain - or, at the very least, avert No Deal - but, of course, their efforts will come to nothing if they can't find a majority in Parliament for any single one of these outcomes (and, if necessary, force it through against the will of Theresa May.)
Brexiteers are frequently criticised for not having a plan, but if their opponents don't come up with a plan pretty soon then, as @Cyclefree reminds us, the Hard Brexit backers will get everything they want.
Corbyn has removed a snap election off the table. That's good, because one fewer option means more scope for an agreement.
It does, however, mean that Jeremy Corbyn will, at long, long, looooong last, need a Brexit policy.
12 non-voters?
Therefore it suits HMG to be 'forced' to seek more time. Probably until the eve of the Euro elections, at least to begin with.
This isn't starting well, and that leads to No Deal.
Were these opposition parties inspired by the Irish killing the deal in order to ensure it wasn't killed?
Confidence: 52%
No Confidence: 48%
I think that has to be his plan before 29mar. He simply doesn't care about the EU deals or otherwise. He's a revolutionary - he wants us wearing Chairman Corbyn hats. Happily he's a total idiot too, and didn't see his chance.
Devolution: 50.3%
No devolution: 49.7%
But the bright spot in all this is the comedians who want a re-run referendum with the choices being … May's deal (Stay in the EU) versus Remain in the EU.
So unbeknownst to us, we held the first leg of a referendum and eliminated the winner.
Woodcock and Lewis
Presumably Flynn?
Who is the fourth?
The stalemate continues.
At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.
As many others have said, people need to quickly decide what they do want, not what they don’t. Otherwise it’s going to be no deal.
Matt, as always, got it spot on the other day.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1084867777679294464
There's no limit on how often Corbyn can call for a VONC, but in the aftermath of a MV passing the house is the moment when one will most likely succeed.
So, if Tories flip Peterborough and lose the DUP it would be a tie?
However god knows if he actually would.
That doesn't sound like a softening tone to me, that sounds like battle lines being drawn.
I was just commenting that before we all get carried away it's not just Peterborough that's got a looming by-election and that in itself would affect the balance of the vote.
Correct me where I’m wrong but to all politicians today Brexit means blendsof component parts that makesup EU membership. I think I am intelligent person, but I clearly misunderstood the referendum question. I thought it was “in all these component parts, or out of all these component parts”. That is why to say all parties campaigned last GE to implement Brexit so should get on and do so is most meaningless statement anyone can say, because at no point has there been clarity and agreement what it is they actually promised to deliver!
I’ll give you example of what I mean and demonstrate what is wrong. What if the binary question had been “Remain as we are, or move to FTA” would this wording have provided better clarity as what it is and how to deliver brexit?
Whether what is Brexit is clear or not, what is role of parliament in delivering ref result? should parliament have a meaningful say, especially to fill in variances where voters were only asked to provide one dimensional answer to multifaceted outcome? We traditionally have representative democracy, a conviction it helps us achieve strong outcomes, strong as in consensual, strong as in delivering results. Let’s remind ourselves what representative democracy is. Edmund Burke (who some call Father of Conservatism): Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; he betrays instead of serving you if he sacrifices it to your opinion. But Voxpop voters post ref what you hear is, we told them what to do, they should represent us by getting on and doing it. As both executive and parliament argue for authority to shape brexit, they have been cuffing each other with two different forms of democracy - at what point have politicians, parliament and the public actually been on same page what Brexit is, and how referendum result works alongside representative democracy?
This lack of clarity is basis of the gridlock, not normal party politics. with all this lack of clarity we can go round and round and remain the laughing stock of the world for ever. But if you listen out to the media, read political blogs, looking for this lack of clarity becoming addressed, it’s not. A crisis not going away until it is.
Those who claim it is now effectively off the table are making the huge error of believing that when push comes to shove the government, the opposition and backbench MPs will put the national interest first. However, it is clear that a large number of MPs on front and back benches are absolutely not prepared to do that.
The EU would offer nothing and we would Remain. No point even in restarting talks really.
But 'nothing has changed' will definitely be her epitaph.
In practical terms the Government still daren't dispense with the services of the DUP under such circumstances. It would only take one of the ex-Labourites to move from abstain back to voting against them, or one of their own MPs to fall ill, or Bercow to find a pretext for dispensing with convention and they'd be out.
On the matter of Peterborough, if there is to be a by-election I'm still hoping that Corbyn will move it be held on March 29th.
The financial markets are significantly underestimating the No Deal risk, in my view.
Since a GE out of this chaos is not unlikely anyway, there's no political upside to passing brexit.
"we are legally out 29th March 2019."
So no more freedom of movement unless Parliament reinstates it? Boston will be happy. Why then do I feel a 'but' coming on?
So if we bring in a form of immigration control and start pursuing trade deals elsewhere on April 1st, the EU can do nothing but look on. After all, they can't fine a non-member, can they? Wouldn't that be an act of war?
Pop Quiz: What do you do?
Nominally, CON (316) plus DUP (10) should have 326 leaving 313 "opposition" MPs but that includes 6 ex-Labour MP, Sylvia Harmon and Stephen Lloyd who are the 8 "Independent" MPs.
As there is apparently no pairing, the CON-DUP total looks light by one but if we exclude the two tellers that would suggest one Independent MP voted with the Government.
On the Opposition side, the affiliated MP total is 305 so assuming two tellers again, three of the Independents must have voted with the Opposition so four Independents must have abstained or been absent.
No doubt, details will be forthcoming.
At this rate voters are going to give up on labour and especially Corbyn
This is the root of why the FTPA is such a problem: a decade ago, last night’s vote would have been made an issue of confidence, the equivalent of a four line whip, and would probably have passed.
In this I agree with Tom Watson*. She has had her chance and has blown it. she has no new ideas or way forward, and is not willing to bring others into the discussions. By refusing to go, she has become perhaps the biggest obstacle to progress.
*under-rated as next Lab Leader by the bookies, he is after all the Deputy Leader, so very likely to be acting leader for the next contest.
4 Speakers + Deputies
4 Tellers
So the most any vote can get is to sum to 635 right now.
People have said she lacks warmth and personality on first meeting.
She even has the autistic facial structure, wide eyes and cat face.
It has variously been said that she is ‘fundamentally unknowable’, ‘aloof’, ’reticent’, ‘self-contained’ and ‘sphinx like’.
She shows every single trait of somebody with autism. Her absurd, self-defeating stubbornness, secrecy and absolute imperviousness to either shame or change are all just part of May's neurological makeup.
Theresa May is neurologically incapable of the task to which we have set her. In many ways it's cruel, because we're torturing a helpless innocent.
Therein lies the problem.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1085626152406929408
Jezza has been leave for 40 years!