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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The May government’s net satisfaction ratings are on par with
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The May government’s net satisfaction ratings are on par with Thatcher’s and Cameron’s
Governments are pretty much always unpopular. The anonymous grinding mills of policy and administration rarely inspire enthusiasm, much less devotion. Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver once joked that the US Congress was less popular than Satan, a claim that as far as I can find hasn’t been tested by any pollster (perhaps something for Lord Ashcroft to consider during his American travels).
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You and your data!
Doncha know Mrs May is the worst Prime Minister since Lord North (or so we are routinely told)?
Thanks for shedding light amidst the fog - not that it will make the slightest bit of difference to the Mayphobes......
Of course, people are welcome to suggest May, Cameron, Brown or whoever are indeed leading the worst government since whoever was in power before sliced bread based on analysis of their success, but it does make me chuckle as oppositions, of any stripe, will naturally frame their own opposition as because the public are sick of the government, even if on data like this and similar it's pretty normal (If still bad). The Greens can usually be relied upon to most hilariously and spectacularly act like the voice of the people against the government of the day.
Lab/Lib Dems and the Nats dont seem able to dent them. Even a disorderly BREXIT is startign to appear a real possibility and I am not sure May will get the blame - perhaps she is teflon after all.
Cant wait for the Peterborough byelection (if it happens) as I think a real dog fight will be on the cards
It has to change at some point. Has to. But not yet.
It won't happen but clearly a very large number of Mps want to just remain and to avoid no deal should just do so. As you say if no deal is terrible and the deal unsupportable what else can you do? But if you want democratic cover to bypass the 2016 vote remain has to be up against something. They woukd have to choose.
Universal Credit roll-out postponed:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46772901
NHS 10-year plan to be unveiled tomorrow:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46771200
I'd probably vote for a Labour Party led by Benn.
Obituary: Major Geoffrey Langlands, Pakistan's English teacher
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-46757125
Excellent article, Mr. Corporeal. Counter-intuitive indeed.
Exhibit A: One of the biggest recent Tory -> LibDem swings in Devon was when the former Tory councillor was jailed for hitting his wife with a hammer.
I see 2/3 of Britons prefer Remain to May's Deal, including some No Deal Brexiteers.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1081682656734126085?s=19
Time for a #Peoplesvote
To May, it may well work as "Double or Quits", though those ERG types may not like running on a Deal referendum.
Carl Grove set a new record when winning the 90-94 age group sprint title at the US Masters Track National Championships in July, only to test positive for epitrenbolone, a metabolite of trenbolon, which is a substance prohibited by Usada.
The anti-doping rule violation was “more likely than not” to have been caused by the consumption of a contaminated piece of meat the night before the race, according to Usada. A test undertaken the day before had returned a negative result.'
Couple of thoughts. Are such 'contaminants' likely to be used in meat imported to UK under a post EU trade deal with the US? Trenbolon is apparently used by beef farmers to put muscle on in cattle.
Secondly. Is the guy the oldest person to be disqualified for drugs. Is this ip there with 'die at 95, shot by a jealous husband'?
There has been a big crackdown on Churches. Boards proclaiming socialism have been springing up, also lots of quotations and pictures of the leader. Anti Foreigner rhetoric has increased, local authorities have tried to stamp out shops celebrating Christmas. The clamp down on non Chinese foreign morals has increased. Their has been a big clampdown on Gay representation in the media and when China has not been as uptight as some other Asian countries.
You can read plenty of worried comments about not sticking out and about you should stay safe and get your money out and move your family. Even some talk of Boxer rebellion 2.0.
Basically China opened to the World to get developed but only wanted the wealth not the pluralism that comes with it. It's now trying to close the door again. I don't think it will work, if they want to stay rich that is.
Of course it's not just Foreigners feeling the pressure, there is a reason for millions of Overseas Chinese around the Pacific Rim and anyone without secure connections desperating trying to get money abroad and visa's. There is no protection in China, your fortunes can change on a whim,
My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.
Peter Kellner's analysis here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll
Xi ending the unofficial truce over corruption and internal party infighting was seen to have put him in a very strong position. What's your view?
Mr. Corporeal, Thracians? Bloody barbarians.
Last month a YouGov poll not commissioned by People's Vote had it Remain 50% Deal 50% and Remain 52% No Deal 48%, Deal 65% No Deal 35%.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/mays-brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-
Of course there will never be a Remain v Deal referendum anyway while we have a Tory government, at most it would be Remain v Leave (which even this poll has closer at 54% to 46%) then if Leave wins Leave with Deal or Leave with No Deal. In fact the only EU referendum really plausible while May is PM is Leave with the Deal v Leave with No Deal and no Remain option at all but even that would only be as a last resort, Leave having already beaten Remain in the 2016 EU referendum.
Can I ask whether you have any connection with China or are your sources on-line blogs etc?
Only 22% of voters support May’s Deal, and *only 28% of Leavers*.
It’s over.
https://g.co/kgs/fJYQkD
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
The big shift is all Remainers moving from Labour to LD with Labour down 5% and the LDs up 3% as Corbyn continues to rule out EUref2, if that is reflected by other polls we would be heading for a clear Tory majority in any election in the foreseeable future
Plus as long as we have a Tory Government the only likely EU referendum question would be to leave with the Deal or with No Deal, Remain would not even be an option
However, what I suspect is happening (apart from opinion shifting away from the deal) is that in the forced choice, people who don't have their first choice as an option are dropping into "don't know / won't say" rather than picking their second preference.
I think given an actual binary forced-choice referendum people would suck it up and vote for their second choice, since the argument they'd be hearing would pit their tribe against the enemy tribe. But it's really hard to say how turnout would go.
Leaving aside the atrocious circuit, one of the reasons F1 was keen to stop going there was because the Indian government wanted to tax (at 1/20 the rate because it was one race from 20) the teams for racing there. Getting last minute parts in was trickier too due to all the red tape.
If Remain v Deal only though, turnout would be lower as fewer No Dealers would turn out or if Leave with Deal v No Deal turnout would also be lower as fewer Remainers would turn out.
The first question may be the fairest as it covers all options but the last question is most likely as long as the Tories remain in power
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
If you are happy to ramp the headline voting intention from that last YouGov anyway.
The poll's potentially bad news for Remain is if the government calls an early election and Remain voters desert Labour, the government would then have a big enough majority to push through the Deal in parliament.
China's Napoleonic approach to infrastructure, unconstrained by democracy, puts it streets ahead of India on the supply side.
At the end of the day EUref2 needs to be put to the Commons using the Grieve amendment and then get more Commons votes than the Deal to have a chance of even being considered by the Government
However, I stand to be corrrected if I have read it incorrectly
Clearly the only course is to hold a referendum with two options:
"Do you support the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement:
Yes
or
Don't Know."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/05/ian-lavery-accuses-peoples-vote-supporters-disrespectful-brexit/
Things getting worse in China aren’t necessarily incompatible with their becoming a world power, though, however negative the effects are likely to be.
Economivpcally, there is a big question as to what happens when the export growth which has driven their economy stalls, and I don’t think anyone really knows. A bit further out, there is the question of the demographic time bomb.
People Vote only carries if May or Corbyn swings behind it.
No wonder labour are falling in the polls
Unfortunately for the country the less Labour go for a referendum/are unable to get a GE, the greater the already high probability of no deal since lack of support for another vote is not translating into support for any single actual leave option.
This means the Conservative Party would need to believe that not having one would be a serious electoral liability.
Ultimately, the government chooses whether we have a referendum. If they see "mileage" in it, then democracy (or lack thereof) be damned, there will be a referendum.
A referendum will happen if:
Mrs May (and Mr Gove and sufficient other high up members of the government) fear the consequence of the default No Deal more than they fear the fury of their members and the ERG.
or
The polls have swung so violently that not having a referendum would be an immediate electoral liability.
I don't think either are likely. More likely, by far, is that Mrs May manages to convince enough pro-EU Labourites that the Deal is better than No Deal for the country.