My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.
At the risk of starting something we've already done to death, one thing I wonder about the people who think a second referendum is undemocratic: Is there any level of public opinion where it would be OK to let the voters vote again? For the sake of argument, say it turned out that literally nobody in the entire UK wanted to Brexit any more, would the will of the people require ignoring the will of all the people?
I don't think either are likely. More likely, by far, is that Mrs May manages to convince enough pro-EU Labourites that the Deal is better than No Deal for the country.
By far, really? I take your point about what needs to happen for May to switch to a second referendum stance, and I accept that peoples' rhetoric whilst all options appear open (some as unicorns, but even so) will not necessarily match what they are in practice willing to accept, but even assuming many Tories do back down as well, we're talking dozens of Labourites needed to not only accept Deal is better than No deal, but that their enabling of the deal is better than a no deal owned by the Tories.
I see not the slightest bit of evidence to suggest they actually fear no deal enough to change course, especially when they believe, however procedurally it is still difficult, that in the event of no deal we will just remain. You see it on here all the time in the belief that an immediate revocation, somehow, should occur, sometimes honestly in that we need to remain, sometimes pretending that it is about leave sorting things out for later.
But MPs have proven just as willing to entertain all or nothing dreams, no matter how improbable, as the public are. Without backing from Corbyn I don't see how enough back the Deal from Labour,'s side, nor enough Tory MPs bold enough to do what they clearly want and remain, even if it requires taking down the government first. So no deal.
Chuka Umunna admits on Sophy Ridge the 'peoples vote' do not have the numbers in the HOC
Not news. People Vote only carries if May or Corbyn swings behind it.
Yes, and while neither seems to be keen on it and it wouldlook very silly for them to switch (slightly less so for Corbyn as it is at least party policy to leave the options open even if people moan about him not already backing a second vote), at some point neither can keep up this game of pretending their preferred course can occur, and one or both might well swing behind it. The firmer the talk against it from them the sillier they'll look, but politician's u-turn, sometimes for the best even, and you do what you have to.
At present, although People’s Vote does not have a majority in the HOC, it is the largest grouping.
Once May realises she cannot get Deal through without the People’s Voters, or once Corbyn realises he cannot get his election and so is committed to the People’s Vote — then we are off to the races.
I personally think there are no polling or even party issues arising from one or other doing so. Corbyn only gains, and May is secure regardless of what she does.
Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.
My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.
You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
The deal is not dead but it’s very sickly. If it loses too heavily first time round, there will be no way back for it. Right now it still looks set to lose by about 150.
My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.
At the risk of starting something we've already done to death, one thing I wonder about the people who think a second referendum is undemocratic: Is there any level of public opinion where it would be OK to let the voters vote again? For the sake of argument, say it turned out that literally nobody in the entire UK wanted to Brexit any more, would the will of the people require ignoring the will of all the people?
There will only be a referendum if the consequences of not having one are worse for the governing party.
This means the Conservative Party would need to believe that not having one would be a serious electoral liability.
Ultimately, the government chooses whether we have a referendum. If they see "mileage" in it, then democracy (or lack thereof) be damned, there will be a referendum.
A referendum will happen if:
Mrs May (and Mr Gove and sufficient other high up members of the government) fear the consequence of the default No Deal more than they fear the fury of their members and the ERG.
or
The polls have swung so violently that not having a referendum would be an immediate electoral liability.
I don't think either are likely. More likely, by far, is that Mrs May manages to convince enough pro-EU Labourites that the Deal is better than No Deal for the country.
I think Brexit is quite likely to be cancelled without a referendum if it goes to No Deal. No Deal needs to be dealt with, so to speak. Without a transition period, there won't be time for a referendum. That may influence a referendum decision ahead of No Deal. Also a referendum may be Labour's price for supporting the Deal if the referendum gives it the nod. This poll suggests Labour be would be crazy not to make a second referendum its price.
Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.
My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.
You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
In theory nothing can be ruled out completely. But let's be realistic here. So far the only possible routes for the deal seem to be either hoping it 'only' loses by circa 100 so they can try again over and over until it passes, and/or that Labour MPs will fear no deal enough to see it through. But given the deal is not popular in the country, no deal is not feared enough, and there is no political benefit to Labour or the DUP (and with them a tranche of Tory MPs) to alter course, it looks staggeringly improbable.
Replying to yesterdays comments on China displacing the USA. Well don't count your chickens on that. Bad things are brewing in China. Xi Jinping China is beactracking on China's opening to the World. People may have heard about the ratcheting up of Antin foreigner rhetoric in China but you need to read about in detail to feel it. I was watching a You tube blog the other day about why foreigners are fleeing China and it is sobering. People who've lived there for over 10 years, married, bought homes etc, are finding the new visa process much tougher. Local governments have suddenly turned hostile to foreign businesses. There were loads of examples given and just google search Why I Left China...
You can read plenty of worried comments about not sticking out and about you should stay safe and get your money out and move your family. Even some talk of Boxer rebellion 2.0.
Basically China opened to the World to get developed but only wanted the wealth not the pluralism that comes with it. It's now trying to close the door again. I don't think it will work, if they want to stay rich that is.
Of course it's not just Foreigners feeling the pressure, there is a reason for millions of Overseas Chinese around the Pacific Rim and anyone without secure connections desperating trying to get money abroad and visa's. There is no protection in China, your fortunes can change on a whim,
Really interesting first post. Welcome to PB.
Can I ask whether you have any connection with China or are your sources on-line blogs etc?
It is an interesting post. Things getting worse in China aren’t necessarily incompatible with their becoming a world power, though, however negative the effects are likely to be.
Economivpcally, there is a big question as to what happens when the export growth which has driven their economy stalls, and I don’t think anyone really knows. A bit further out, there is the question of the demographic time bomb.
Yes. China has sorted the supply side but has a long term problem with the demand side. For India it is the reverse.
What’s remarkable about China is the breadth of technologies they are becoming proficient in. The other big question for the next decade is whether the trade war with the US will stall that (note the number of recent stalled deals for chip manufacturing plants), or whether they will become technologically self-sufficient (clearly in some sectors they already are).
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
We don't know that. She was "implacably" opposed to a General Election in 2017. She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
She has consistently opposed a referendum and I do not see the relevance about her husband
He must be her only supporter G, everyone else thinks she is totally useless and wrecking the country out of her desperation to stay in power. Her only care is herself and her position.
Chuka Umunna admits on Sophy Ridge the 'peoples vote' do not have the numbers in the HOC
Not news. People Vote only carries if May or Corbyn swings behind it.
Yes, and while neither seems to be keen on it and it wouldlook very silly for them to switch (slightly less so for Corbyn as it is at least party policy to leave the options open even if people moan about him not already backing a second vote), at some point neither can keep up this game of pretending their preferred course can occur, and one or both might well swing behind it. The firmer the talk against it from them the sillier they'll look, but politician's u-turn, sometimes for the best even, and you do what you have to.
At present, although People’s Vote does not have a majority in the HOC, it is the largest grouping.
Once May realises she cannot get Deal through without the People’s Voters, or once Corbyn realises he cannot get his election and so is committed to the People’s Vote — then we are off to the races.
I personally think there are no polling or even party issues arising from one or other doing so. Corbyn only gains, and May is secure regardless of what she does.
I truly am surprised Corbyn has not switched to it yet. The frustration at him for not doing it sooner would evaporate in gratitude, he can claim he has been trying to honour the leave vote but the Tories have cocked it up so the people need to be asked again. With his members so desperate for it, he cannot hold out forever, so he must be waiting for the MV and aftermath, so he can demonstrate he was not simply trying to jump ahead of public opinion cynically. May, meanwhile, is just putting everything off as long as possible to increase pressure as it is her only move.
Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.
My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.
You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
The deal is not dead but it’s very sickly. If it loses too heavily first time round, there will be no way back for it. Right now it still looks set to lose by about 150.
And it is hard to see how it will close that gap. Even if a largish number are prepared, on later votes, to back it reluctantly, given the numbers publicly opposed and the tone of that opposition, to not vote against it the first time would be an absurdity. But in doing so they make it much much harder to even have it voted on again.
So those MPs, if they exist, willing to consider it, just not before the first MV, are screwing themselves. They won't get a second chance.
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
We don't know that. She was "implacably" opposed to a General Election in 2017. She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
She has consistently opposed a referendum and I do not see the relevance about her husband
He must be her only supporter G, everyone else thinks she is totally useless and wrecking the country out of her desperation to stay in power. Her only care is herself and her position.
As the thread header shows, that’s not true. Theresa May has surprising wells of support out there. I agree with you @MalcolmG but it’s far from a universal view. There are a lot of people who see her like they see a penguin trying to avoid leopard seals.
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
We don't know that. She was "implacably" opposed to a General Election in 2017. She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
She has consistently opposed a referendum and I do not see the relevance about her husband
He must be her only supporter G, everyone else thinks she is totally useless and wrecking the country out of her desperation to stay in power. Her only care is herself and her position.
She is polling well and is respected by many. Mind you, Corbyn assists in this well
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
We don't know that. She was "implacably" opposed to a General Election in 2017. She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
She has consistently opposed a referendum and I do not see the relevance about her husband
He must be her only supporter G, everyone else thinks she is totally useless and wrecking the country out of her desperation to stay in power. Her only care is herself and her position.
There are a lot of people who see her like they see a penguin trying to avoid leopard seals.
More like one of those whales that swims up the Thames. Sure, it technically chose to swim down that way but it clearly didn't know what it was doing and it is not good for its health.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Including the Labour, and even some LD and SNP voters who voted Leave as well, presumably.
Replying to yesterdays comments on China displacing the USA. Well don't count your chickens on that. Bad things are brewing in China. Xi Jinping China is beactracking on China's opening to the World. People may have heard about the ratcheting up of Antin foreigner rhetoric in China but you need to read about in detail to feel it. I was watching a You tube blog the other day about why foreigners are fleeing China and it is sobering. People who've lived there for over 10 years, married, bought homes etc, are finding the new visa process much tougher. Local governments have suddenly turned hostile to foreign businesses. There were loads of examples given and just google search Why I Left China.
There has been a big crackdown on Churches. Boards proclaiming socialism have been springing up, also lots of quotations and pictures of the leader. Anti Foreigner rhetoric has increased, local authorities have tried to stamp out shops celebrating Christmas. The clamp down on non Chinese foreign morals has increased. Their has been a big clampdown on Gay representation in the media and when China has not been as uptight as some other Asian countries.
You can read plenty of worried comments about not sticking out and about you should stay safe and get your money out and move your family. Even some talk of Boxer rebellion 2.0.
Basically China opened to the World to get developed but only wanted the wealth not the pluralism that comes with it. It's now trying to close the door again. I don't think it will work, if they want to stay rich that is.
Of course it's not just Foreigners feeling the pressure, there is a reason for millions of Overseas Chinese around the Pacific Rim and anyone without secure connections desperating trying to get money abroad and visa's. There is no protection in China, your fortunes can change on a whim,
Really interesting first post. Welcome to PB.
Can I ask whether you have any connection with China or are your sources on-line blogs etc?
It is an interesting post. Things getting worse in China aren’t necessarily incompatible with their becoming a world power, though, however negative the effects are likely to be.
Economivpcally, there is a big question as to what happens when the export growth which has driven their economy stalls, and I don’t think anyone really knows. A bit further out, there is the question of the demographic time bomb.
Export growth has not driven the Chinese economy. Gross fixed capital formation has driven the Chinese economy.
(Which I thought I'd done a video on... but it appears I haven't.)
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
We don't know that. She was "implacably" opposed to a General Election in 2017. She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
She has consistently opposed a referendum and I do not see the relevance about her husband
He must be her only supporter G, everyone else thinks she is totally useless and wrecking the country out of her desperation to stay in power. Her only care is herself and her position.
There are a lot of people who see her like they see a penguin trying to avoid leopard seals.
More like one of those whales that swims up the Thames. Sure, it technically chose to swim down that way but it clearly didn't know what it was doing and it is not good for its health.
I actually think she does know what she is doing and indeed it respects the vote, rather than a hard brexit, by protecting our economy but at the same time leaving the EU
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. It is not entirely without risk to let it happen by blocking anything else. But it is not in their political interest to stop it, since particularly given so many Tories are also against the government's plan, Labour can easily claim it is not their fault it is so bad 1/3 of Tory MPs even cannot back it, and that they would have prevented hard brexit though option X if they could have. They are far less likely to face a backlash than the sitting government.
Great charts. The resilience of this government is quite remarkable. I am a leaver (much more so than I was in 2016) and broadly a Tory supporter and this government has appalled me with its incompetence. Surely only Corbyn is keeping the Tories at 40% in the polls.
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
We don't know that. She was "implacably" opposed to a General Election in 2017. She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
She has consistently opposed a referendum and I do not see the relevance about her husband
He must be her only supporter G, everyone else thinks she is totally useless and wrecking the country out of her desperation to stay in power. Her only care is herself and her position.
There are a lot of people who see her like they see a penguin trying to avoid leopard seals.
More like one of those whales that swims up the Thames. Sure, it technically chose to swim down that way but it clearly didn't know what it was doing and it is not good for its health.
I actually think she does know what she is doing and indeed it respects the vote, rather than a hard brexit, by protecting our economy but at the same time leaving the EU
I was referring more to her attempts, far too lengthy, to keep all her party factions on board and not even take a decision within the Cabinet until the middle portion of 2018. More time may not have solved the problem entirely, but she floundered about for far far too long and that was entirely her own choice for narrow party reasons.
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
No, the Deal just allows the Nervous Breakdown to continue, via FTA negotiations.
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
We don't know that. She was "implacably" opposed to a General Election in 2017. She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
She has consistently opposed a referendum and I do not see the relevance about her husband
He must be her only supporter G, everyone else thinks she is totally useless and wrecking the country out of her desperation to stay in power. Her only care is herself and her position.
There are a lot of people who see her like they see a penguin trying to avoid leopard seals.
More like one of those whales that swims up the Thames. Sure, it technically chose to swim down that way but it clearly didn't know what it was doing and it is not good for its health.
I actually think she does know what she is doing and indeed it respects the vote, rather than a hard brexit, by protecting our economy but at the same time leaving the EU
I was referring more to her attempts, far too lengthy, to keep all her party factions on board and not even take a decision within the Cabinet until the middle portion of 2018. More time may not have solved the problem entirely, but she floundered about for far far too long and that was entirely her own choice for narrow party reasons.
My criticism is similar if more focused on the positive side. Not only did she need to choose earlier but she then had to go out and sell her choices to both the country and her own party. She made almost no attempt (beyond very bland generic speeches) to sell anything like her deal until the beginning of December and even then she gave her opponents a free run for weeks beforehand allowing counter-narratives to be well established. One of the most necessary skills of a legislator is coalition building. LBJ was famously brilliant at it. May is one of the worst at it that we have seen at a time when the skill was needed the most.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. It is not entirely without risk to let it happen by blocking anything else. But it is not in their political interest to stop it, since particularly given so many Tories are also against the government's plan, Labour can easily claim it is not their fault it is so bad 1/3 of Tory MPs even cannot back it, and that they would have prevented hard brexit though option X if they could have. They are far less likely to face a backlash than the sitting government.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
No, the Deal just allows the Nervous Breakdown to continue, via FTA negotiations.
I thought that was his point - the breakdown has to continue before it can be completed. I'd rather remain than no deal, but there is this absolutely ludicrous fantasy that that will have no consequences, and that the millions upon millions who wanted leave in the first place and still do, even if a minority now, will not lead to an issue.
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
No, the Deal just allows the Nervous Breakdown to continue, via FTA negotiations.
I didn’t say it was a short process. The manner of the referendum vote in 2016 was a national disaster.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. It is not entirely without risk to let it happen by blocking anything else. But it is not in their political interest to stop it, since particularly given so many Tories are also against the government's plan, Labour can easily claim it is not their fault it is so bad 1/3 of Tory MPs even cannot back it, and that they would have prevented hard brexit though option X if they could have. They are far less likely to face a backlash than the sitting government.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. It is not entirely without risk to let it happen by blocking anything else. But it is not in their political interest to stop it, since particularly given so many Tories are also against the government's plan, Labour can easily claim it is not their fault it is so bad 1/3 of Tory MPs even cannot back it, and that they would have prevented hard brexit though option X if they could have. They are far less likely to face a backlash than the sitting government.
It is the same as the government shutdown in the States. It is the leader that gets blamed for the problem, not the opposition.
Brexit, whether Deal or No Deal, will be the albatross around the Tories neck for a long time.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. It is not entirely without risk to let it happen by blocking anything else. But it is not in their political interest to stop it, since particularly given so many Tories are also against the government's plan, Labour can easily claim it is not their fault it is so bad 1/3 of Tory MPs even cannot back it, and that they would have prevented hard brexit though option X if they could have. They are far less likely to face a backlash than the sitting government.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Tories would deserve it for not having planned for No Deal from Day 1.
I've just been into one of my internet rabbit holes the last 6 months ago and have got heavily into Korean and Japanese drama recently and have sampled Chinese stuff. From there it is just a short hop to reading Vlogs on You tube, Abroad in Japan is very funny, Dan & Joel in Korea is both funny and they have done some quite interesting documentaries.
On China a few example to You tube are: There is a Huge MORAL CRISIS in China, ADVChina you tube is good. The Mass Exodus of Foreigners from China, China is Going Through a Scary Change.
The Chinese have become increasingly exposed to the World and millions are now travelling abroad, a sophisticated economy needs surety of contract and government rules and regulations that you can rely on, no democracy means endemic corruption. China is inherently unstable there few checks and balances, it will crash at some point.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. It is not entirely without risk to let it happen by blocking anything else. But it is not in their political interest to stop it, since particularly given so many Tories are also against the government's plan, Labour can easily claim it is not their fault it is so bad 1/3 of Tory MPs even cannot back it, and that they would have prevented hard brexit though option X if they could have. They are far less likely to face a backlash than the sitting government.
It is the same as the government shutdown in the States. It is the leader that gets blamed for the problem, not the opposition.
Brexit, whether Deal or No Deal, will be the albatross around the Tories neck for a long time.
As we saw a couple of threads back it is not entirely clear yet who is getting the blame for the US shutdowns.
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
No, the Deal just allows the Nervous Breakdown to continue, via FTA negotiations.
I thought that was his point - the breakdown has to continue before it can be completed. I'd rather remain than no deal, but there is this absolutely ludicrous fantasy that that will have no consequences, and that the millions upon millions who wanted leave in the first place and still do, even if a minority now, will not lead to an issue.
Yeah, there will be an issue of division either way, but much better to have chosen the angels rather than the devils.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. It is not entirely without risk to let it happen by blocking anything else. But it is not in their political interest to stop it, since particularly given so many Tories are also against the government's plan, Labour can easily claim it is not their fault it is so bad 1/3 of Tory MPs even cannot back it, and that they would have prevented hard brexit though option X if they could have. They are far less likely to face a backlash than the sitting government.
It is the same as the government shutdown in the States. It is the leader that gets blamed for the problem, not the opposition.
Brexit, whether Deal or No Deal, will be the albatross around the Tories neck for a long time.
As we saw a couple of threads back it is not entirely clear yet who is getting the blame for the US shutdowns.
Sure it will be a partisan divide, but Democrats are not blaming themselves, and neither will Lab, SNP, LD or Green voters. May was at the wheel when it happened.
Labour Party chairman and Labour MP for Wansbeck Ian Lavery says People's Vote campaigners calling for a second EU referendum are 'disrespectful' as voters already voted to Leave the EU and simply want the process to take place
This would be the same Ian Lavery who received £90k from the rump NUM in 'termination payments' when there was no evidence of a redundancy process, and £72k from the Benevolent Fund when there is not a lot of evidence that he was sick.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. It is not entirely without risk to let it happen by blocking anything else. But it is not in their political interest to stop it, since particularly given so many Tories are also against the government's plan, Labour can easily claim it is not their fault it is so bad 1/3 of Tory MPs even cannot back it, and that they would have prevented hard brexit though option X if they could have. They are far less likely to face a backlash than the sitting government.
It is the same as the government shutdown in the States. It is the leader that gets blamed for the problem, not the opposition.
Brexit, whether Deal or No Deal, will be the albatross around the Tories neck for a long time.
As we saw a couple of threads back it is not entirely clear yet who is getting the blame for the US shutdowns.
Sure it will be a partisan divide, but Democrats are not blaming themselves, and neither will Lab, SNP, LD or Green voters. May was at the wheel when it happened.
And the question is 'what happened' - the story has not ended by a long way
At present, although People’s Vote does not have a majority in the HOC, it is the largest grouping.
Once May realises she cannot get Deal through without the People’s Voters, or once Corbyn realises he cannot get his election and so is committed to the People’s Vote — then we are off to the races.
I personally think there are no polling or even party issues arising from one or other doing so. Corbyn only gains, and May is secure regardless of what she does.
I truly am surprised Corbyn has not switched to it yet. The frustration at him for not doing it sooner would evaporate in gratitude, he can claim he has been trying to honour the leave vote but the Tories have cocked it up so the people need to be asked again. With his members so desperate for it, he cannot hold out forever, so he must be waiting for the MV and aftermath, so he can demonstrate he was not simply trying to jump ahead of public opinion cynically. May, meanwhile, is just putting everything off as long as possible to increase pressure as it is her only move.
I'm sure these analyses are correct. I wouldn't be surprised if May delays the MV once again, as it runs down the clock for her yet again and delays the moment when Corbyn can say "Well, we tried" and switchy to a referendum.
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
We don't know that. She was "implacably" opposed to a General Election in 2017. She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
She has consistently opposed a referendum and I do not see the relevance about her husband
He must be her only supporter G, everyone else thinks she is totally useless and wrecking the country out of her desperation to stay in power. Her only care is herself and her position.
She is polling well and is respected by many. Mind you, Corbyn assists in this well
It does beggar belief G, she really is the worst PM I have ever seen and given Brown that really is some achievement.
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
We don't know that. She was "implacably" opposed to a General Election in 2017. She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
She has consistently opposed a referendum and I do not see the relevance about her husband
He must be her only supporter G, everyone else thinks she is totally useless and wrecking the country out of her desperation to stay in power. Her only care is herself and her position.
She is polling well and is respected by many. Mind you, Corbyn assists in this well
It does beggar belief G, she really is the worst PM I have ever seen and given Brown that really is some achievement.
Many may disagree. She is far from perfect, has her faults, but she is the best we have at present
On Marr May refuses to rule out bringing the Deal back to the Commons again and again and again although she still says she wants to get it through first time
Great charts. The resilience of this government is quite remarkable. I am a leaver (much more so than I was in 2016) and broadly a Tory supporter and this government has appalled me with its incompetence. Surely only Corbyn is keeping the Tories at 40% in the polls.
David, what will you do when we go back into EU after independence.
Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.
My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.
No it is not over at all, as the non anti Brexit People's Vote poll showed the Deal comfortably beats No Deal head to head and ties Remain after preferences.
Plus as long as we have a Tory Government the only likely EU referendum question would be to leave with the Deal or with No Deal, Remain would not even be an option
The poll was carried out by YouGov, it matters not who commissioned it. For someone who bangs on endlessly about polling you seem strangely ignorant about its mechanics.
On Marr May refuses to rule out bringing the Deal back to the Commons again and again and again although she still says she wants to get it through first time
She has to maintain that line as she cannot concur her deal will fail at this stage otherwise there is no point in voting on it
Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.
My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.
No it is not over at all, as the non anti Brexit People's Vote poll showed the Deal comfortably beats No Deal head to head and ties Remain after preferences.
Plus as long as we have a Tory Government the only likely EU referendum question would be to leave with the Deal or with No Deal, Remain would not even be an option
Personally I think it's very unlikely the European Council would unanimously approve an extension for a referendum that included "No Deal" as an option. At least one of the other countries would surely calculate there was more risk of the electorate choosing "No Deal" than of the House of Commons doing so left to itself.
Clearly the only course is to hold a referendum with two options: "Do you support the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement: Yes or Don't Know."
What the European Council thinks is irrelevant, the EU is already preparing only 2 options, Deal or No Deal so the referendum delivers on that. There would be no extension, if the Deal passes then it has already been agreed with the EU and nothing further needed and an extension to ratify it if needed can be made, if No Deal then we go to No Deal and no extension needed either.
A Yes or No to Withdrawal Agreement question is of course utterly pointless as it leaves empty the question if No what then?
Labour Party chairman and Labour MP for Wansbeck Ian Lavery says People's Vote campaigners calling for a second EU referendum are 'disrespectful' as voters already voted to Leave the EU and simply want the process to take place
Unfortunately for the country the less Labour go for a referendum/are unable to get a GE, the greater the already high probability of no deal since lack of support for another vote is not translating into support for any single actual leave option.
Or May gets a majority after a general election for her Deal with the centre left vote split as centre left Remainers shift from Labour to the LDs
Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.
My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.
You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
The deal is not dead but it’s very sickly. If it loses too heavily first time round, there will be no way back for it. Right now it still looks set to lose by about 150.
And it is hard to see how it will close that gap. Even if a largish number are prepared, on later votes, to back it reluctantly, given the numbers publicly opposed and the tone of that opposition, to not vote against it the first time would be an absurdity. But in doing so they make it much much harder to even have it voted on again.
So those MPs, if they exist, willing to consider it, just not before the first MV, are screwing themselves. They won't get a second chance.
No, thanks to the Grieve amendment if the Deal goes down on the first vote there will be votes on EUref2 and Norway Plus, if those are also defeated then the Deal is back on again
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
No, the Deal just allows the Nervous Breakdown to continue, via FTA negotiations.
No, it is precisely as it enables those FTA negotiations with an Irish border backstop it is orderly rather than EUref2 near civil war and narrow Remain then win far right surge or No Deal economic disaster
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. It is not entirely without risk to let it happen by blocking anything else. But it is not in their political interest to stop it, since particularly given so many Tories are also against the government's plan, Labour can easily claim it is not their fault it is so bad 1/3 of Tory MPs even cannot back it, and that they would have prevented hard brexit though option X if they could have. They are far less likely to face a backlash than the sitting government.
It is the same as the government shutdown in the States. It is the leader that gets blamed for the problem, not the opposition.
Brexit, whether Deal or No Deal, will be the albatross around the Tories neck for a long time.
As we saw a couple of threads back it is not entirely clear yet who is getting the blame for the US shutdowns.
Sure it will be a partisan divide, but Democrats are not blaming themselves, and neither will Lab, SNP, LD or Green voters. May was at the wheel when it happened.
Even in the event of No Deal, the Conservatives will still get support from people who like Brexit, and/or don't like Corbyn. I would no expect it to shift voting intentions by much.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. It is not entirely without risk to let it happen by blocking anything else. But it is not in their political interest to stop it, since particularly given so many Tories are also against the government's plan, Labour can easily claim it is not their fault it is so bad 1/3 of Tory MPs even cannot back it, and that they would have prevented hard brexit though option X if they could have. They are far less likely to face a backlash than the sitting government.
It is the same as the government shutdown in the States. It is the leader that gets blamed for the problem, not the opposition.
Brexit, whether Deal or No Deal, will be the albatross around the Tories neck for a long time.
Except it is not as most Leavers are sticking with the Tories with minor leakage to UKIP while Remainers are starting to shift from Labour to the LDs
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
We are not there yet and I would be very surprised indeed if Labour facilitate a no deal Brexit when push comes to shove. In any event Hard Brexit is politically "owned" by the ERG and Tory right.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. It is not entirely without risk to let it happen by blocking anything else. But it is not in their political interest to stop it, since particularly given so many Tories are also against the government's plan, Labour can easily claim it is not their fault it is so bad 1/3 of Tory MPs even cannot back it, and that they would have prevented hard brexit though option X if they could have. They are far less likely to face a backlash than the sitting government.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Tories would deserve it for not having planned for No Deal from Day 1.
You cannot plan for No Deal, it will be hugely damaging whatever you do, all you can do is put sticking plaster on it
Great charts. The resilience of this government is quite remarkable. I am a leaver (much more so than I was in 2016) and broadly a Tory supporter and this government has appalled me with its incompetence. Surely only Corbyn is keeping the Tories at 40% in the polls.
David, what will you do when we go back into EU after independence.
I am sure that I would learn to wear my electric collar like everyone else Malcolm. But I don't see either scenario arising.
On Marr May refuses to rule out bringing the Deal back to the Commons again and again and again although she still says she wants to get it through first time
She has to maintain that line as she cannot concur her deal will fail at this stage otherwise there is no point in voting on it
She will maintain it regardless, as a May aide said they will put the Deal to the Commons 30 times if needed
On Marr May refuses to rule out bringing the Deal back to the Commons again and again and again although she still says she wants to get it through first time
She has to maintain that line as she cannot concur her deal will fail at this stage otherwise there is no point in voting on it
She will maintain it regardless, as a May aide said they will put the Deal to the Commons 30 times if needed
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
I'm not bothered about that. I don't think Leavers have a greater claim to outrage than Remainers. Leavers presumably don't mind if they win the second referendum. Their issue is only if Remain wins.
On Marr May refuses to rule out bringing the Deal back to the Commons again and again and again although she still says she wants to get it through first time
She didn't actually rule anything out though she was clear on what she wanted and didn't want.
On Marr May refuses to rule out bringing the Deal back to the Commons again and again and again although she still says she wants to get it through first time
She didn't actually rule anything out though she was clear on what she wanted and didn't want.
On Marr May refuses to rule out bringing the Deal back to the Commons again and again and again although she still says she wants to get it through first time
She has to maintain that line as she cannot concur her deal will fail at this stage otherwise there is no point in voting on it
She will maintain it regardless, as a May aide said they will put the Deal to the Commons 30 times if needed
No they won't. That would be incredibly irresponsible.How many times is too many I wonder? One do-over I think.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
That's not evidence for or against my assertion, which is hypothesising what will happen to support in the event of no deal. I think you are so in love with polls sometimes you forget to actually reference relevant ones. My assertion might well be incorrect, but your counter point is irrelevant to it since that's a snapshot of the parties now.
I presume she is using casual language in that 'I will not call a snap election' means 'I will not request the Commons approve a snap election', but it would be amusing if she was being very precise, in that she will not call a snap election as she does not have the power to do so, she will merely call for a snap GE.
On Marr May refuses to rule out bringing the Deal back to the Commons again and again and again although she still says she wants to get it through first time
She has to maintain that line as she cannot concur her deal will fail at this stage otherwise there is no point in voting on it
She will maintain it regardless, as a May aide said they will put the Deal to the Commons 30 times if needed
Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.
My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.
You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
The deal is not dead but it’s very sickly. If it loses too heavily first time round, there will be no way back for it. Right now it still looks set to lose by about 150.
And it is hard to see how it will close that gap. Even if a largish number are prepared, on later votes, to back it reluctantly, given the numbers publicly opposed and the tone of that opposition, to not vote against it the first time would be an absurdity. But in doing so they make it much much harder to even have it voted on again.
So those MPs, if they exist, willing to consider it, just not before the first MV, are screwing themselves. They won't get a second chance.
No, thanks to the Grieve amendment if the Deal goes down on the first vote there will be votes on EUref2 and Norway Plus, if those are also defeated then the Deal is back on again
I meant in the sense of it being too far behind to be salvaged as a result, not necessarily that it literally will never get voted on again.
On Marr May refuses to rule out bringing the Deal back to the Commons again and again and again although she still says she wants to get it through first time
She has to maintain that line as she cannot concur her deal will fail at this stage otherwise there is no point in voting on it
She will maintain it regardless, as a May aide said they will put the Deal to the Commons 30 times if needed
No they won't. That would be incredibly irresponsible.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I t...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
That's not evidence for or against my assertion, which is hypothesising what will happen to support in the event of no deal. I think you are so in love with polls sometimes you forget to actually reference relevant ones. My assertion might well be incorrect, but your counter point is irrelevant to it since that's a snapshot of the parties now.
No it would not, it would be more responsible than No Deal or the deep division of EUref2.
It is evidence against your assertion as most Tory voters are Leavers and would stick with the party even with No Deal. Most Labour voters are Remainers though and if Corbyn enables Brexit and refuses to back EUref2 then many of them will shift to the LDs as this morning's YouGov confirms is already starting to happen with Labour down 5% to 34%, the LDs up 3% and the Tories still on 40%.
Even if No Deal is a disaster it is likely to be the LDs or a new centrist party that benefit, not Corbyn Labour
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
That would be my intention too. Could I resist the temptation to vote Remain when I'm stood there, pencil in hand? Not sure. Given I am opposed to the idea of another referendum the high principle course of action would be a no-show. Boycott it. Never have not voted in anything, however, it's almost a fetish with me, so I can't see myself sticking to the plan. I would need to come down with a debilitating virus on the day, and that is too much to hope for.
I like the Deal more than you. In fact I like the Deal. If you had offered me this on 24 June 2016 I would have bitten your hand off. It respects the referendum and avoids crashing the economy. It will also IMO (and this for me is its USP) draw the sting from this deeply divisive issue. Once we have left I cannot see the years of FTA talks dominating our politics in anything like the same way. A long grind, complex, technical, boring, and both parties with broadly the same end policy objective of close alignment. It will hum along in the background, allowing other matters to breathe. That is the great prize that the Deal can deliver and why I am so keen to see it passed by parliament. Come on MPs. War is over (if you want it).
Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.
My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.
You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
The deal is not dead but it’s very sickly. If it loses too heavily first time round, there will be no way back for it. Right now it still looks set to lose by about 150.
And it is hard to see how it will close that gap. Even if a largish number are prepared, on later votes, to back it reluctantly, given the numbers publicly opposed and the tone of that opposition, to not vote against it the first time would be an absurdity. But in doing so they make it much much harder to even have it voted on again.
So those MPs, if they exist, willing to consider it, just not before the first MV, are screwing themselves. They won't get a second chance.
No, thanks to the Grieve amendment if the Deal goes down on the first vote there will be votes on EUref2 and Norway Plus, if those are also defeated then the Deal is back on again
I think that is an important insight. If May's deal is to have a second go, let alone a 30th, she will need to see the other options also voted down by the Commons. Only then can her deal be resurrected and brought back as the least worse option. I think that that makes Corbyn's opposition to a second referendum key. If he changes position on that May is likely to lose.
Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.
My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.
You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
The deal is not dead but it’s very sickly. If it loses too heavily first time round, there will be no way back for it. Right now it still looks set to lose by about 150.
And it is hard to see how it will close that gap. Even if a largish number are prepared, on later votes, to back it reluctantly, given the numbers publicly opposed and the tone of that opposition, to not vote against it the first time would be an absurdity. But in doing so they make it much much harder to even have it voted on again.
So those MPs, if they exist, willing to consider it, just not before the first MV, are screwing themselves. They won't get a second chance.
No, thanks to the Grieve amendment if the Deal goes down on the first vote there will be votes on EUref2 and Norway Plus, if those are also defeated then the Deal is back on again
I meant in the sense of it being too far behind to be salvaged as a result, not necessarily that it literally will never get voted on again.
If EUref2 and Norway Plus lose by more than the Deal then the Deal becomes the only alternative to No Deal by default
I salute your optimism over Mrs May's copper bottomed predictions. I would just remind you of December when Mrs May implied the MV will happen tomorrow and (Until Easter2017) when she assured us there will be no GE before 2020. That said, I am sure on this occasion she is right.
At present, although People’s Vote does not have a majority in the HOC, it is the largest grouping.
Once May realises she cannot get Deal through without the People’s Voters, or once Corbyn realises he cannot get his election and so is committed to the People’s Vote — then we are off to the races.
I personally think there are no polling or even party issues arising from one or other doing so. Corbyn only gains, and May is secure regardless of what she does.
I truly am surprised Corbyn has not switched to it yet. The frustration at him for not doing it sooner would evaporate in gratitude, he can claim he has been trying to honour the leave vote but the Tories have cocked it up so the people need to be asked again. With his members so desperate for it, he cannot hold out forever, so he must be waiting for the MV and aftermath, so he can demonstrate he was not simply trying to jump ahead of public opinion cynically. May, meanwhile, is just putting everything off as long as possible to increase pressure as it is her only move.
I'm sure these analyses are correct. I wouldn't be surprised if May delays the MV once again, as it runs down the clock for her yet again and delays the moment when Corbyn can say "Well, we tried" and switchy to a referendum.
Thinking on it some more that is perhaps the main thing May is trying to achieve with the delays - I had thought that she would switch to a referendum as well, but perhaps it really is as simple as taking that option away so that Corbyn cannot switch to that (she can see he is reluctant to do so) to please his members, an instead all he can do is, she believes anyway, back her leave, or back a unilateral remain. Recklessly high stakes.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
I think you put too much emphasis on single polls with an MOE of +/- 3%. That YG poll supports our shared prior belief that Corbyn's stance will cause a move from Labour to LDs and so we give it greater weight than it deserves. Dangerous for betting.
My EMA, including that YG poll, has Con 39.1%, Lab 37.9% and LD 8.5%.
This leaves the Tories 20 short of an overall majority and parliament hopelessly hung (or is that hanged?)
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
The deal is not dead but it’s very sickly. If it loses too heavily first time round, there will be no way back for it. Right now it still looks set to lose by about 150.
ance.
No, thanks to the Grieve amendment if the Deal goes down on the first vote there will be votes on EUref2 and Norway Plus, if those are also defeated then the Deal is back on again
I think that is an important insight. If May's deal is to have a second go, let alone a 30th, she will need to see the other options also voted down by the Commons. Only then can her deal be resurrected and brought back as the least worse option. I think that that makes Corbyn's opposition to a second referendum key. If he changes position on that May is likely to lose.
As a result the Grieve amendment is her saviour. I cannot see Corbyn swinging behind EU ref2 anytime soon and as Ian Lavery's statement this morning confirms many Labour MPs from Leave seats are fiercely anti EU ref2 as they see it in his words as 'disrespectful' to the Leave voting majority in their constituencies in 2016. Given almost all Tory MPs and the DUP will also vote against EUref2 it could well be voted down too and the more the votes against it the better the chances for May's Deal as EUref2 supporters then have no alternative to No Deal but May's Deal
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
I think you put too much emphasis on single polls with an MOE of +/- 3%. That YG poll supports our shared prior belief that Corbyn's stance will cause a move from Labour to LDs and so we give it greater weight than it deserves. Dangerous for betting.
My EMA, including that YG poll, has Con 39.1%, Lab 37.9% and LD 8.5%.
This leaves the Tories 20 short of an overall majority and parliament hopelessly hung (or is that hanged?)
Depends how you allocate the current UKIP vote. Net off an extra 1.5% of it going to the Tories over Labour, and that majority gets tantalisingly close......
You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
The deal is not dead but it’s very sickly. If it loses too heavily first time round, there will be no way back for it. Right now it still looks set to lose by about 150.
ance.
No, thanks to the Grieve amendment if the Deal goes down on the first vote there will be votes on EUref2 and Norway Plus, if those are also defeated then the Deal is back on again
I think that is an important insight. If May's deal is to have a second go, let alone a 30th, she will need to see the other options also voted down by the Commons. Only then can her deal be resurrected and brought back as the least worse option. I think that that makes Corbyn's opposition to a second referendum key. If he changes position on that May is likely to lose.
As a result the Grieve amendment is her saviour.
He would probably be tearfully distraught if that turns out to be the case.
Replying to yesterdays comments on China displacing the USA. Well don't count your chickens on that. Bad things are brewing in China. Xi Jinping China is beactracking on China's opening to the World. People may have heard about the ratcheting up of Antin foreigner rhetoric in China but you need to read about in detail to feel it. I was watching a You tube blog the other day about why foreigners are fleeing China and it is sobering. People who've lived there for over 10 years, married, bought homes etc, are finding the new visa process much tougher. Local governments have suddenly turned hostile to foreign businesses. There were loads of examples given and just google search Why I Left China.
There has been a big crackdown on Churches. Boards proclaiming socialism have been springing up, also lots of quotations and pictures of the leader. Anti Foreigner rhetoric has increased, local authorities have tried to stamp out shops celebrating Christmas. The clamp down on non Chinese foreign morals has increased. Their has been a big clampdown on Gay representation in the media and when China has not been as uptight as some other Asian countries.
You can read plenty of worried comments about not sticking out and about you should stay safe and get your money out and move your family. Even some talk of Boxer rebellion 2.0.
Basically China opened to the World to get developed but only wanted the wealth not the pluralism that comes with it. It's now trying to close the door again. I don't think it will work, if they want to stay rich that is.
Of course it's not just Foreigners feeling the pressure, there is a reason for millions of Overseas Chinese around the Pacific Rim and anyone without secure connections desperating trying to get money abroad and visa's. There is no protection in China, your fortunes can change on a whim,
Historically, China has been ascendant. The period of decline from the mid 19th to the late 20th century is atypical if you take a long view of history, as most Chinese do. You can overstate national characteristics, but I would say the Chinese are typically very well organised, clever and ambitious. At the international level, China has the heft, the organisation, the money and increasingly the military power to get its way.
China has problems: governance, corruption and it feels like it is in a property bubble. You put your finger on something interesting. How few foreigners there are there. I get the impression fewer than before despite the growth.
You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
The deal is not dead but it’s very sickly. If it loses too heavily first time round, there will be no way back for it. Right now it still looks set to lose by about 150.
ance.
No, thanks to the Grieve amendment if the Deal goes down on the first vote there will be votes on EUref2 and Norway Plus, if those are also defeated then the Deal is back on again
I think that is an important insight. If May's deal is to have a second go, let alone a 30th, she will need to see the other options also voted down by the Commons. Only then can her deal be resurrected and brought back as the least worse option. I think that that makes Corbyn's opposition to a second referendum key. If he changes position on that May is likely to lose.
As a result the Grieve amendment is her saviour. I cannot see Corbyn swinging behind EU ref2 anytime soon and as Ian Lavery's statement this morning confirms many Labour MPs from Leave seats are fiercely anti EU ref2 as they see it in his words as 'disrespectful' to the Leave voting majority in their constituencies in 2016. Given almost all Tory MPs and the DUP will also vote against EUref2 it could well be voted down too and the more the votes against it the better the chances for May's Deal as EUref2 supporters then have no alternative to No Deal but May's Deal
It's a possible way forward, I'll give you that. My concern is Corbyn's ability to do the wrong thing. If he backs ref2 it is hard to see how it loses.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
I think you put too much emphasis on single polls with an MOE of +/- 3%. That YG poll supports our shared prior belief that Corbyn's stance will cause a move from Labour to LDs and so we give it greater weight than it deserves. Dangerous for betting.
My EMA, including that YG poll, has Con 39.1%, Lab 37.9% and LD 8.5%.
This leaves the Tories 20 short of an overall majority and parliament hopelessly hung (or is that hanged?)
Depends how you allocate the current UKIP vote. Net off an extra 1.5% of it going to the Tories over Labour, and that majority gets tantalisingly close......
Agreed. But not close enough for Mrs May to bank on it!
No they won't. That would be incredibly irresponsible.How many times is too many I wonder? One do-over I think.
Depends on the level of movement. If the second vote on the May deal gets an extra 4 votes, then it looks doomed. If it gets thirty more though at the second attempt, that would look like significant momentum.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
I think you put too much emphasis on single polls with an MOE of +/- 3%. That YG poll supports our shared prior belief that Corbyn's stance will cause a move from Labour to LDs and so we give it greater weight than it deserves. Dangerous for betting.
My EMA, including that YG poll, has Con 39.1%, Lab 37.9% and LD 8.5%.
This leaves the Tories 20 short of an overall majority and parliament hopelessly hung (or is that hanged?)
If YouGov is affirmed by other polls, especially if gold standard Survation confirms a shift from Labour to LD amongst Remainers, then Tory overall majority is on under FPTP
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
I think you put too much emphasis on single polls with an MOE of +/- 3%. That YG poll supports our shared prior belief that Corbyn's stance will cause a move from Labour to LDs and so we give it greater weight than it deserves. Dangerous for betting.
My EMA, including that YG poll, has Con 39.1%, Lab 37.9% and LD 8.5%.
This leaves the Tories 20 short of an overall majority and parliament hopelessly hung (or is that hanged?)
Depends how you allocate the current UKIP vote. Net off an extra 1.5% of it going to the Tories over Labour, and that majority gets tantalisingly close......
Agreed. But not close enough for Mrs May to bank on it!
Close enough to have the DUP thinking "More pork!"
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
I think you put too much emphasis on single polls with an MOE of +/- 3%. That YG poll supports our shared prior belief that Corbyn's stance will cause a move from Labour to LDs and so we give it greater weight than it deserves. Dangerous for betting.
My EMA, including that YG poll, has Con 39.1%, Lab 37.9% and LD 8.5%.
This leaves the Tories 20 short of an overall majority and parliament hopelessly hung (or is that hanged?)
Depends how you allocate the current UKIP vote. Net off an extra 1.5% of it going to the Tories over Labour, and that majority gets tantalisingly close......
Agreed. But not close enough for Mrs May to bank on it!
Close enough to have the DUP thinking "More pork!"
You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
The deal is not dead but it’s very sickly. If it loses too heavily first time round, there will be no way back for it. Right now it still looks set to lose by about 150.
ance.
No, thanks to the Grieve amendment if the Deal goes down on the first vote there will be votes on EUref2 and Norway Plus, if those are also defeated then the Deal is back on again
I think that is an important insight. If May's deal is to have a second go, let alone a 30th, she will need to see the other options also voted down by the Commons. Only then can her deal be resurrected and brought back as the least worse option. I think that that makes Corbyn's opposition to a second referendum key. If he changes position on that May is likely to lose.
As a result the Grieve amendment is her saviour.
He would probably be tearfully distraught if that turns out to be the case.
Though would be poetic justice for Deal supporters
I salute your optimism over Mrs May's copper bottomed predictions. I would just remind you of December when Mrs May implied the MV will happen tomorrow and (Until Easter2017) when she assured us there will be no GE before 2020. That said, I am sure on this occasion she is right.
Punters don't agree. 40% probability we leave the European Union on the 29th March.
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
That would be my intention too. Could I resist the temptation to vote Remain when I'm stood there, pencil in hand? Not sure. Given I am opposed to the idea of another referendum the high principle course of action would be a no-show. Boycott it. Never have not voted in anything, however, it's almost a fetish with me, so I can't see myself sticking to the plan. I would need to come down with a debilitating virus on the day, and that is too much to hope for.
I like the Deal more than you. In fact I like the Deal. If you had offered me this on 24 June 2016 I would have bitten your hand off. It respects the referendum and avoids crashing the economy. It will also IMO (and this for me is its USP) draw the sting from this deeply divisive issue. Once we have left I cannot see the years of FTA talks dominating our politics in anything like the same way. A long grind, complex, technical, boring, and both parties with broadly the same end policy objective of close alignment. It will hum along in the background, allowing other matters to breathe. That is the great prize that the Deal can deliver and why I am so keen to see it passed by parliament. Come on MPs. War is over (if you want it).
A thoughtful contribution.
EDIT: Sorry. That sounds a bit patronising! I mean it's clear you've given it some thought and I found your conclusions interesting.
You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
The deal is not dead but it’s very sickly. If it loses too heavily first time round, there will be no way back for it. Right now it still looks set to lose by about 150.
ance.
No, thanks to the Grieve amendment if the Deal goes down on the first vote there will be votes on EUref2 and Norway Plus, if those are also defeated then the Deal is back on again
I think that is an important insight. If May's deal is to have a second go, let alone a 30th, she will need to see the other options also voted down by the Commons. Only then can her deal be resurrected and brought back as the least worse option. I think that that makes Corbyn's opposition to a second referendum key. If he changes position on that May is likely to lose.
As a result the Grieve amendment is her saviour. I cannot see Corbyn swinging behind EU ref2 anytime soon and as Ian Lavery's statement this morning confirms many Labour MPs from Leave seats are fiercely anti EU ref2 as they see it in his words as 'disrespectful' to the Leave voting majority in their constituencies in 2016. Given almost all Tory MPs and the DUP will also vote against EUref2 it could well be voted down too and the more the votes against it the better the chances for May's Deal as EUref2 supporters then have no alternative to No Deal but May's Deal
It's a possible way forward, I'll give you that. My concern is Corbyn's ability to do the wrong thing. If he backs ref2 it is hard to see how it loses.
Corbyn has given no evidence of that so far and even if he does Corbyn represents a Remain seat, most Labour MPs from seats outside big inner city areas like London and Manchester and Cardiff represent seats which voted Leave and will be wary of the backlash from their constituents if they enable EUref2 which could see their winning Leave vote reversed
Well, the Chancellor had a £15bn reserve for No Deal Planning. I'm sure he could save a chunk of that - and not miss the few billion leakage to the DUP.
Alternatively, they press for the (Northern) Ireland - Scotland tunnel/bridge combo. A piece of instrastructure that would effectively end their isolation.
(Admittedly, by the time it gets built, we will all be dead and Scotland will be independent. But it would be something huge to sell on the doorsteps next time around....)
I salute your optimism over Mrs May's copper bottomed predictions. I would just remind you of December when Mrs May implied the MV will happen tomorrow and (Until Easter2017) when she assured us there will be no GE before 2020. That said, I am sure on this occasion she is right.
Punters don't agree. 40% probability we leave the European Union on the 29th March.
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
That would be my intention too. Could I resist the temptation to vote Remain when I'm stood there, pencil in hand? Not sure. Given I am opposed to the idea of another referendum the high principle course of action would be a no-show. Boycott it. Never have not voted in anything, however, it's almost a fetish with me, so I can't see myself sticking to the plan. I would need to come down with a debilitating virus on the day, and that is too much to hope for.
I like the Deal more than you. In fact I like the Deal. If you had offered me this on 24 June 2016 I would have bitten your hand off. It respects the referendum and avoids crashing the economy. It will also IMO (and this for me is its USP) draw the sting from this deeply divisive issue. Once we have left I cannot see the years of FTA talks dominating our politics in anything like the same way. A long grind, complex, technical, boring, and both parties with broadly the same end policy objective of close alignment. It will hum along in the background, allowing other matters to breathe. That is the great prize that the Deal can deliver and why I am so keen to see it passed by parliament. Come on MPs. War is over (if you want it).
A thoughtful contribution.
Indeed. And I agree with Mr K. The years of negotiations will also give opportunity for thought.
Comments
I see not the slightest bit of evidence to suggest they actually fear no deal enough to change course, especially when they believe, however procedurally it is still difficult, that in the event of no deal we will just remain. You see it on here all the time in the belief that an immediate revocation, somehow, should occur, sometimes honestly in that we need to remain, sometimes pretending that it is about leave sorting things out for later.
But MPs have proven just as willing to entertain all or nothing dreams, no matter how improbable, as the public are. Without backing from Corbyn I don't see how enough back the Deal from Labour,'s side, nor enough Tory MPs bold enough to do what they clearly want and remain, even if it requires taking down the government first. So no deal.
And vice versa.
Once May realises she cannot get Deal through without the People’s Voters, or once Corbyn realises he cannot get his election and so is committed to the People’s Vote — then we are off to the races.
I personally think there are no polling or even party issues arising from one or other doing so. Corbyn only gains, and May is secure regardless of what she does.
https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1081484902938435584?s=21
Its both! "You're all the same" is still what I hear most on the doorstep despite the amazing unifying power of The Corbyn.
So those MPs, if they exist, willing to consider it, just not before the first MV, are screwing themselves. They won't get a second chance.
They could stop it.
(Which I thought I'd done a video on... but it appears I haven't.)
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Brexit, whether Deal or No Deal, will be the albatross around the Tories neck for a long time.
On China a few example to You tube are: There is a Huge MORAL CRISIS in China, ADVChina you tube is good. The Mass Exodus of Foreigners from China, China is Going Through a Scary Change.
The Chinese have become increasingly exposed to the World and millions are now travelling abroad, a sophisticated economy needs surety of contract and government rules and regulations that you can rely on, no democracy means endemic corruption. China is inherently unstable there few checks and balances, it will crash at some point.
A second referendum has edged out to 2.5.
This would be the same Ian Lavery who received £90k from the rump NUM in 'termination payments' when there was no evidence of a redundancy process, and £72k from the Benevolent Fund when there is not a lot of evidence that he was sick.
Respect !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuX2Yy7_bEY
A Yes or No to Withdrawal Agreement question is of course utterly pointless as it leaves empty the question if No what then?
We are not there yet and I would be very surprised indeed if Labour facilitate a no deal Brexit when push comes to shove. In any event Hard Brexit is politically "owned" by the ERG and Tory right.
'We leave the European Union on the 29th March'
It is evidence against your assertion as most Tory voters are Leavers and would stick with the party even with No Deal. Most Labour voters are Remainers though and if Corbyn enables Brexit and refuses to back EUref2 then many of them will shift to the LDs as this morning's YouGov confirms is already starting to happen with Labour down 5% to 34%, the LDs up 3% and the Tories still on 40%.
Even if No Deal is a disaster it is likely to be the LDs or a new centrist party that benefit, not Corbyn Labour
I like the Deal more than you. In fact I like the Deal. If you had offered me this on 24 June 2016 I would have bitten your hand off. It respects the referendum and avoids crashing the economy. It will also IMO (and this for me is its USP) draw the sting from this deeply divisive issue. Once we have left I cannot see the years of FTA talks dominating our politics in anything like the same way. A long grind, complex, technical, boring, and both parties with broadly the same end policy objective of close alignment. It will hum along in the background, allowing other matters to breathe. That is the great prize that the Deal can deliver and why I am so keen to see it passed by parliament. Come on MPs. War is over (if you want it).
My EMA, including that YG poll, has Con 39.1%, Lab 37.9% and LD 8.5%.
This leaves the Tories 20 short of an overall majority and parliament hopelessly hung (or is that hanged?)
China has problems: governance, corruption and it feels like it is in a property bubble. You put your finger on something interesting. How few foreigners there are there. I get the impression fewer than before despite the growth.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060
EDIT: Sorry. That sounds a bit patronising! I mean it's clear you've given it some thought and I found your conclusions interesting.
Alternatively, they press for the (Northern) Ireland - Scotland tunnel/bridge combo. A piece of instrastructure that would effectively end their isolation.
(Admittedly, by the time it gets built, we will all be dead and Scotland will be independent. But it would be something huge to sell on the doorsteps next time around....)